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Michael Sprung of Sprung & Company Investment Counsel

Opinions from Michael Sprung

TOP PICKTalisman EnergyTLM-T22.130(A Top Pick July 13/07. Up 4%.) New management team is focusing on core values as well as potential opportunities. Internationally diversified including Indonesia, which is close to China. Going into Iraq, which is a very large potential opportunity with not too much capital risk up front.2008-06-26
TOP PICKManulife FinancialMFC-T36.060When you can buy this under $40, it represents excellent value. One of the best managed and capitalized financial institutions in Canada. Sees them earning roughly $3 a share this year and about $3.30-$3.40 next year. ROE is the highest in the insurance group in between 16% and 18%.2008-06-26
TOP PICKStantec IncSTN-T25.510Relatively ignored engineering company. Thinks they will earn in the neighbourhood of $1.80 this year and is very inexpensive.2008-06-26
PAST TOP PICKThomson Reuters CorpTRI-T32.690(A Top Pick July 13/07. Down 27%.) Fears of what is happening in the financial services are punishing the stock. With more layoffs, there may be less demand for their services but the market overlooks the strength they have in the legal and scientific areas. Still a Buy.2008-06-26
PAST TOP PICKCanadian Imperial Bank of CommerceCM-T58.580(A Top Pick July 13/07. Down 35%.) The bank that everyone loves to hate. On a core earnings basis, they are still capable of earning $7 a share. Expecting more write-downs, but the market is overestimating their problems.2008-06-26
PARTIAL SELLFording Canadian Coal Trust (Inc Trust)FDG.UN-T91.250Just taking a bit of a pause here. Record contracts were recently set for iron ore and they are very well exposed to metallurgical coal. We have just gone through a very heavy period for coal prices. There are concerns on inflation and a slowing economy. If you own, consider taking some profits off the table.2008-06-26
DON'T BUYResearch In MotionRIM-T125.140As a value investor this stock trades at multiples and parameters beyond his concepts. Had a very modest disappointment in earnings but the stock took a big haircut. Doesn't feel the stock could withstand too many disappointments.2008-06-26
BUYSuncor Energy IncSU-T60.450One of the bellwether stocks of the oil/gas industry. Stock has slipped back to multiples that he would consider as relatively reasonable. Expect cash flow this year will be in the neighbourhood of $10 a share.2008-06-26
DON'T BUYMethanex CorpMX-T27.910Being affected recently by the cost of feedstock, particularly natural gas. With his outlook over the next 2 years, it would be a little premature to go into the stock right now.2008-06-26
DON'T BUYBank of AmericaBAC-N24.810Took over Countrywide on terms that initially were thought to be somewhat favourable. The problems that are persistent with mortgages in the US are huge. Too many unknowns going forward.2008-06-26
CommentA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA Commentary0.020Oil Services: Outlook is probably as good as it has been in a number of years. You could look at some of the main players Schlumberger (SLB-N) or Precision Drilling (PD.UN-T).2008-06-26
DON'T BUYAppleAAPL-Q168.260As a value investor, this is a company that sells outside his parameters. Have demonstrated that they are a formidable competitor. A lot of these stocks are selling at multiples that he would be very cautious at this point in time.2008-06-26
DON'T BUYGeneral Motors CorporationGM-N11.430You would have to take an extremely long-term perspective on this one. Not sure what you would be buying if you bought it today. Given what is happening to the North American manufacturers, they could evolve just into a marketer by moving all the production off shore. Burning a lot of working capital and could be in trouble.2008-06-26
BUYPetro-CanPCA-T54.150Should be able to cash flow in the neighbourhood of $10 a share in the next year or two. Making a lot of money upstream right now but are losing on refining margins. Very strong production base with prospects for increasing it over the next few years. Extremely good value at current levels.2008-06-26
CommentEncana CorpECA-T90.160He has taken a little bit of profit lately. Looks a bit more expensive to him at over 3X BV. If your outlook is extremely long-term, you could buy some right now, but there will be opportunities to buy at a better price.2008-06-26
CommentPotash Corp of SaskatchewanPOT-T222.490Selling at multiples that he would find hard to justify. If demand fell off, it's a long way down. If you own, consider taking profits.2008-06-26
PARTIAL SELLCanadian Natural RsrcsCNQ-T98.680Thinks it will cash flow around $10 a share this year. Selling at 3X Book, which is a little high in his estimation. He has been taking some profits.2008-06-26
CommentHudbay Minerals Inc.HBM-T13.550Recently announced they were acquiring Skye Resources (SKR-T) and the market doesn’t seem to like the price they are paying for it. There’s a lot of fear of the pullback in demand for base metals. Getting to a price where he will be taking a serious look at it.2008-06-26
CommentTrinidad DrillingTDG-T13.860Longer term prospects for a company like this look fairly positive. Dividend looks fairly secure. He is looking at this one. 2008-06-26
BUYPenn West Energy TrustPWT.UN-T34.030Represents fairly good value. Yield of over 11.5%. A lot of tax pools so that even when they convert to a corporation in 2011 it will be some time before they have to pay any significant tax.2008-06-26
DON'T BUYOilexco IncOIL-T17.120Have been able to build reserves quite effectively. On a price per value basis it is a little expensive.2008-06-26
TOP PICKStantec IncSTN-T29.010Design and does engineering work for buildings, architecture etc. Very disciplined company and it came off quite a bit because of some residential work in the US. Expect they will earn over $2 a share in the next couple of years.2008-05-29
TOP PICKThomson Reuters CorpTRI-T36.510Has come off quite a bit in the last year because of concerns on financial services area, which is a major market for them. However, they are also highly exposed to the legal and scientific areas. Think the market is underestimating what the synergies might be from the merger of Thompson and Reuters.2008-05-29
BUYManulife FinancialMFC-T38.600Pulled back in price recently and any time it is under $40, he is interested in it. Great depth of management, which will offset the retirement of the CEO next year.2008-05-29
DON'T BUYVisa Inc.V-N85.250Little concerned because of consumers being overextended. Credit card debts are getting very high at the moment. If interest rates back up a little bit, this could be under threat.2008-05-29
CommentBCE Inc.BCE-T34.980The longer this situation goes on; the more it becomes a speculation. As time goes on, it is less and less likely to deal will go through.2008-05-29
CommentCanWest Global Comm.CGS-T3.840The real fear in a lot of the media companies right now is, are the advertising dollars going to slow down. If your outlook is long-term, it could be an all right investment at this point.2008-05-29
BUYPetro-CanPCA-T56.560Throwing off a lot of cash flow. Over the next 2 years, he expects cash flow to be over $10 per share. Represents pretty good value at this price. Integrateds are getting squeezed on the downstream operations.2008-05-29
BUYPenn West Energy TrustPWT.UN-T31.870Good exposure to gas. Good properties. Has about a 12% yield. For a long-term investor, it is probably a fairly good investment. On his radar screen.2008-05-29
BUYCanadian Pacific RailCP-T74.260Liked that its exposure was more in Canada, unlike Canadian National (CNR-T) that had north/south traffic. Rails are really making money now in shipping grains, commodities, etc. Not that expensive.2008-05-29
BUY on WEAKNESSShaw Communication (B)SJR.B-T20.280On a relative valuation, he likes this one more than Rogers Communications (RCI.B-T) on the multiples. However, Rogers has a toehold in the wireless, which is booming. A drop of 10% or so and he would take a serious look at it.2008-05-29
CommentBank of MontrealBMO-T48.700If your time horizon is 5 years, there is not a problem with holding this bank or any of the Canadian banks. Almost 6% yield.2008-05-29
TOP PICKTalisman EnergyTLM-T22.710New strategy will be to go after unconventional gas in North America. Sold off some of their non-core landholdings and he expects to see a lot of this in future. Good balance sheet. Very rich company.2008-05-29
TOP PICKThomson Reuters CorpTRI-T37.300(A Top Pick July 13/07. Down 17%.) Doesn't expect a big move in the next couple of months, but for long-term holders, this is the place to get in. As the synergies begin to evolved, he can see this in the high $40’s - $50’s over the next couple of years.2008-04-30
TOP PICKPetro-CanPCA-T50.460Well diversified and the price is compelling. Over the next 2 years it will earn well over $10 in cash flow. Earns ROE of over 20% but is selling at 2X book. Where the worries might occur are over the downstream operations over the next year or two and to how quickly they can pass increases on to customers.2008-04-30
TOP PICKBank of Nova ScotiaBNS-T47.820Selling at a fairly reasonable valuation. The most stable of the group.2008-04-30
PAST TOP PICKTalisman EnergyTLM-T20.370(A Top Pick July 13/07. Down 5%.) Has been a bit of a roller coaster like a lot of the oils but he still likes it and has been adding to his position. Selling at around 5X-6X cash flow. As one of the strongest balance sheets. A lot of international plays that have prospects for future production growth.2008-04-30
PAST TOP PICKCanadian Imperial Bank of CommerceCM-T74.170(A Top Pick July 13/07. Down 23%.) This is the bank that everyone loves to hate. Have had their share of problems and be served criticism since last summer. Still likes.2008-04-30
DON'T BUYAgriumAGU-T79.190Agriculture stocks are up tremendously over the last year. Have been strong underpinnings of demand but like a lot of stocks that get caught up in investor euphoria, they are priced for perfection. Earnings are expected to be over $4 but that is at peak prices. Still at about 20X earnings. Would look at it seriously if it pulled back 20%.2008-04-30
DON'T BUYNexen IncNXY-T34.900Came in with earnings that were better than expected. Very strong ROE. Development at Long Lake is ramping up. Have a fairly good production profile going forward. Trading at a pretty full multiple with earnings in the $3-$4 range and cash flows around $6.50 to $7.50.2008-04-30
DON'T BUYGildan Activewear Inc.GIL-T25.810If this meets some of the analysts’ expectations, it's a lot more reasonable than it was. Earnings projections are taking them from the $.75 level last year, up to $1 in the next 2 years, so at the current price it still looks quite pricey. Thinks international competition is hitting them.2008-04-30
CommentA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA Commentary0.020Sprott IPO: - Eric Sprott has an extremely good track record and is a very good manager. Coming off a very good streak here because he has been forefront in the commodity plays. From the pricing he has seen proposed on it, he would find it a little bit rich.2008-04-30
DON'T BUYTimminco Ltd.TIM-T19.520Short sellers have been saying they don't have a product but, on the other side, they have some pretty serious backers who understand that there is a product. European firms have been spending a lot more in Cap-x and have not had a technology that has really done what they say can be done. Still have to prove it self.2008-04-30
BUYBFI Canada Income FundBFC.UN-T21.500For an income trust, it was an excellent model of relatively stable cash flow. When it converts to a corporation in 2011, there will be tax implications. The market is already pricing this in. Reasonable at today's price. 8.3% yield. Some of the recent selloff is in anticipation of a slowdown in the US economy, but longer-term an excellent business to be in.2008-04-30
BUYCanadian Oil Sands TrustCOS.UN-T45.230Recently announced an increase in their distribution. At today's price, the yield is getting to the point where you have a pretty good trade off given the equity risk in the longer term. This is a play that will develop over the long-term. Production will continually ramp up.2008-04-30
BUYLoblawsL-T31.830A major large cap stock that has had total capitulation. Making money and has a large underpinning of asset value. Good for long-term investors. Beginning to show signs of straightening around. Most of his exposure is through George Weston (WN-T). Selling at reasonable valuation level.2008-04-30
BUYGeorge Weston Ltd.WN-T48.500A major large cap stock that has had total capitulation. Improvements in the bakery operation were wiped out by the appreciation of the Cdn$ as well as getting hit by the problems at Loblaws (L-T). Also hit by inflationary problems of the inputs going in. Selling at reasonable valuation level for a long-term investor.2008-04-30
BUYTeck Cominco Ltd. (B)TCK.B-T43.820Earnings are going to be in the neighbourhood of $5 over the next 2 years or so. Cash flows are going to be $6.50 roughly. At current prices, it's a fairly compelling valuation. Selling at just over 2X BV.2008-04-30
CommentParamount ResourcesPOU-T18.250Have a lot of cash on hand. We'll be using this, not only for cap-x, but acquisitions going forward. We will continue to see in the oil/gas sector a lot of trading of properties.2008-04-30
DON'T BUYHarvest Energy TrustHTE.UN-T22.340A year ago it was throwing off a lot of cash with good refining margins. In the last year, there has been a squeeze in margins. Doesn't see this alleviating in the near future. 16.2% yield indicates people are worried about the company going forward.2008-04-30
HOLDEnbridgeENB-T41.420Easing off with the little bit of a pullback in gas prices. There always has been a seasonal aspect to this company and we are coming into the summer season. Excellently managed company. Over the long term has produced fairly good returns. Not badly priced if you are holding for the long-term. Would prefer to see it at $35 - $36.2008-04-30
DON'T BUYBrick Group Income FundBRK.UN-T9.120The concern with the Brick Group would be consumer spending. Unfortunately, they are positioned in the mid to lower middle-income strata, which is going to feel the pinch. His concern would be with the stability of cash flow over the next couple of years. Also, they will have to convert back in 2011.2008-04-30
BUYManulife FinancialMFC-T39.370(Market Call Minute.) For a longer-term investor, this is a Buy. One of the most superbly managed companies in Canada.2008-04-30
SELLNortelNT-T8.580(Market Call Minute.) Still doesn't understand the multiples that are being attributed to this company. The competitive environment is beginning to eat away at their core.2008-04-30
DON'T BUYViterra IncVT-T13.770(Market Call Minute.) Just recently had an issue and from his point of view, the valuation is a little bit rich.2008-04-30
BUYSherritS-T14.050(Market Call Minute.) Just put out their earnings, which were right on expectations. Well managed company.2008-04-30
DON'T BUYWestjet AirlinesWJA-T17.010(Market Call Minute.) Very concerned on airline growth with the cost of fuel.2008-04-30
TOP PICKBank of Nova ScotiaBNS-T44.620Superb management. Very steady. Well diversified internationally business wise. Good underlying retail base. Looking at acquiring a US bank which is very opportunistic. Earnings are in the neighbourhood of $4 this year and maybe $4.30 next year. 4.1% yield.2008-04-15
TOP PICKCrescent Point Energy TrustCPG.UN-T32.4907.4% yield. One of the early players in the Bakken play in Saskatchewan. Their netbacks at current prices are around $85.2008-04-15
TOP PICKThomson Reuters CorpTRI-T36.910One of the leading providers of information into the legal sector and health care. Expect to see some real solid profitability increases. The synergies with the merger of Reuters are going to be huge.2008-04-15
PAST TOP PICKPetro-CanPCA-T49.920(A Top Pick Mar 16/07. Up 21%.) Long-term fundamentals are still good. Will be spending $5 billion a year on CapX projects. Thinks it will cash flow about $10 a year for the next 2 years. His Still a Buy for long-term investors.2008-04-15
PAST TOP PICKSunlife FinancialSLF-T46.140(A Top Pick Mar 16/07. Down 7%.) Has been pulled back largely with the concerns on US financials. One of their biggest exposures is MFS in the US. Good balance sheet. Still a Buy.2008-04-15
PAST TOP PICKGeorge Weston Ltd.WN-T49.560(A Top Pick Mar 16/07. Down 32%.) The capitulation followed the capitulation of Loblaws (L-T), of which they owned 70%. Loblaws has almost $30 of value in real estate in the stock. Cdn$ had a negative effect. Think this area will be more stable. The stock is worth a lot more than what it is today.2008-04-15
DON'T BUYPetrobank Energy and ResourcesPBG-T50.720Fluctuations in the price are probably due to questions on their new Thai technology. Feels he can find more attractively priced stocks in the energy sector.2008-04-15
DON'T BUYOilexco IncOIL-T14.480Reserves in the North Sea have come in quite strong. Has performed extremely well. Feels it might be priced too much for perfection. If there were any mistakes, it would be hit quite hard. Cells at over 5X BV, which in the oil patch is quite expensive. Any disappointment and you could see a real strong pull back. Risk/reward is not worth it.2008-04-15
CommentA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA Commentary0.020Energy Stocks: - He is very bullish on energy right now but there is a discontinuity between oil and natural gas. There could be some catching up by natural gas. Oil is a good place to be for longer-term investors.2008-04-15
DON'T BUYNorbord Inc.NBD-T4.900Not so certain that the dividend is safe over the next 3 years. The stock has been hit severely by the fears of a slowdown in the US of a housing crisis. The glues and resins going into strand boards are very expensive so they are being squeezed on both ends.2008-04-15
BUYPrecision Drilling Corp.PD.UN-T25.240One of the primary service oil companies in Canada. Price increase is a reaction the high oil/gas prices which are creating a lot more exploration. Well managed. He has been looking at this one lately.2008-04-15
BUYBank of MontrealBMO-T45.810Has been hit hard, not just by the problems in the credit market, but also by other problems that have happened on their trading side and other areas. Also, their US franchise is subject to some of the slowdown. Selling at a severe discount to the other banks at about 1.6X BV. If you are a long-term investor, you might want to step in at this point.2008-04-15
PARTIAL SELLPotash Corp of SaskatchewanPOT-T188.150If you own, now would be a good time to start taking some profits. They earned around $3.50 last year and the projections for the next year are up around the $6 level. Based on $185, that is a big multiple.2008-04-15
DON'T BUYNortelNT-T6.980Not a good time to buy. Still selling at a fairly high multiple. The real question is their long-term sustainability in the market. They've got competition from all sides now.2008-04-15
BUYCiscoCSCO-Q23.110Selling at a relatively reasonable multiple for a technology stock. Long-term demand and the capital expenditures going into the IT sector are going to sustain something like this company, which is more of a general product availability.2008-04-15
DON'T BUYBiovail Corp.BVF-T11.050Earned $1.24 per share but paid $1.53 per share. Companies cannot sustain a dividend far ahead of their earnings for very long. Have had a number of problems over the last year. He wonders where the stability is going to come from.2008-04-15
DON'T BUYWestjet AirlinesWJA-T16.200Airlines are very difficult things for value investors like himself to invest in. Overall you are dealing with companies that have extremely large capital costs and extremely huge operating costs. Very much dependent on discretionary expenditures.2008-04-15
HOLDCanadian National R.R.CNR-T49.680In the rail sector, he prefers and owns Canadian Pacific (CP-T) as opposed to this one. Dynamics for CP are a little more Canada centric with grain handling, coal. CNR will be hit more with the slowdown in the US. Earnings forecasts are in the neighbourhood of $3.50/$3.60 this year, going up to the $4 level next year.2008-04-15
CommentA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA Commentary0.020Gold: - Likes gold very much. Has a number of attributes going for it including good primary demand as well as growing demand in growing economies. Also expects it to continue increasing against the US$.2008-04-15
CommentYamana Gold Inc.YRI-T14.480Good forecast of production increase. Currently producing 1.3 million ounces a year and is expected to almost double in 5 to 6 years. Can also see this profile in more attractively priced gold stocks. Currently, his largest position is in Goldcorp (G-T).2008-04-15
DON'T BUYDu PontDD-N48.930A bellwether stock on the global economy to a large extent and from that point of view, he is not sure he would be jumping into this one right at the moment. It will be squeezed on the cost side and there inability to pass those increases on because of the slowing economy.2008-04-15
PARTIAL SELLSuncor Energy IncSU-T112.120Relative to some of its peers, it is fairly expensive act 4X BV. Extremely profitable company. Has a 24% ROE at current oil prices but is priced to the extent that any disappointment could knock quite a bit off of it. If you own, consider taking some off the table.2008-04-15
CommentHudbay Minerals Inc.HBM-T16.700Longer term there could be some improvements in this stock. They have been hit to a greater extent than some of the other copper producers. His long-term outlook for copper is still fairly strong but on a multiple basis, he prefers Teck Cominco (TCK.B-T), which he feels has a more rapid potential for earnings and cash flow increases over the next couple of years.2008-04-15
BUYTeck Cominco Ltd. (B)TCK.B-T46.490His long-term outlook for copper is still fairly strong. He prefers this to others, which he feels has a more rapid potential for earnings and cash flow increases over the next couple of years.2008-04-15
CommentExxon MobilXOM-N90.800Recently did a couple of joint ventures in Hungary, but to them this is not significant in the scheme of things. It's a very interesting project.2008-04-15
CommentFalcon Oil & GasFO-X0.780Exxon Mobil (XOM-N) has gone in on a joint venture with them in Hungary but you should look at this on its own merits. Never buy a stock on the prospect that it might be a takeover.2008-04-15
DON'T BUYGildan Activewear Inc.GIL-T34.200It will probably be under continuing pressure. They make a discretionary product and where international competition is causing severe cost pressures.2008-04-15
CommentRussel MetalsRUS-T28.480This is a great yield stock at 6.4%. They can probably maintain their dividend, but where they are going to be hit is on the rebar side. Doesn't see a lot of building going to be going on.2008-04-15
DON'T BUYResearch In MotionRIM-T117.880(Market Call Minute.) This one is just out of his stratosphere at 50X earnings. Everything has to go perfect. They do always seemed to surprise people on the upside, but one mistake and the stock could hit severe headwinds.2008-04-15
HOLDHarry Winston Diamond Corp.HW-T27.390(Market Call Minute.) On the one side, their mines seem to be doing all right but retail operations seem to be under a bit of pressure and given the environment we are in, it is likely to stay that way.2008-04-15
HOLDToronto DominionTD-T63.070(Market Call Minute.) Some of the other banks are more attractively priced.2008-04-15
DON'T BUYAgriumAGU-T80.500(Market Call Minute.) Multiples are not quite as extreme as in Potash (POT-T) but it is priced for perfection.2008-04-15
WEAK BUYCAE IncCAE-T12.120Like, have been adding to exposure lately. One of the premium companies exposed to the aeronautical market. Planes are going to need replacement in the near future. Looks quite attractive at this price. Has a dominant position in the industry. 2008-03-27
DON'T BUYOilexco IncOIL-T13.600Exploring in the north sea and have been successful. Recent results weren’t up to analyst’s expectations. Trading at a pretty high multiple, would have to be cheaper before purchased. 2008-03-27
BUYCML Healthcare Income FundCLC.UN-T15.650Like, a very good model for an income trust. The threat is that the government will try to renegotiate and squeeze down margins. Current yield in quite good. Not a lot of risk.2008-03-27
DON'T BUYResearch In MotionRIM-T114.520Wouldn’t own it. Selling beyond 60 times earnings. RIM has a lock on the business and email industry. Will see a bit of a slowdown. Any disappointments from the company could have a disastrous effect on the share price. 2008-03-27
VAGUEYamana Gold Inc.YRI-T15.750Their recent results were a little bit below expectations. 2008-03-27
DON'T BUYKinross GoldK-T23.370Prefer Goldcorp, it’s a lower cost producer, their reserves are a little bit richer. 2008-03-27
WEAK BUYGoldcorp IncG-T41.070It’s our main exposure to gold. There’s strong fundamental demand for gold. Has good properties and good production increases coming on stream. 2008-03-27
TOP PICKPetro-CanPCA-T44.600Likes its value. Have 17 exploration wells. They should be able to cash flow around $10 a share, suggesting that relative upside potential outweighs the downside. target of almost $60. 2008-03-27
TOP PICKCanadian Imperial Bank of CommerceCM-T66.450Getting better disclosure form this bank then any other. Has the best balance sheet of any bank in North America. 2008-03-27
TOP PICKThomson Reuters CorpTRI-T34.950They’ve finally approved their merger. Major players in legal information. People underestimate the synergies that will come from merger. Return on equity has finally began to move upwards.2008-03-27
WEAK BUYA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA Commentary0.020Preferred shares- We have been buying a lot of preferred shares. They typically have 5-6% dividend yields, which is quite high on bond equivalent basis. 2008-03-27


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