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Mark Jackson, CFA of Aegon Capital Management Inc.
Joined AEGON Capital Management Inc. in 1994, and is responsible for overall investment management operations in Canada. Before joining AEGON, Mark managed equity and small-cap equity funds at Colonia Life. Mark has 20 years experience in both Canadian equity and fixed-income markets. He earned his Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation in 1991 and is a member of the Toronto CFA Society and the CFA Institute.
5000 Yonge Street
Toronto ON
M2N 7J8
416-883-5800
Mark Jackson, CFA's website
Fax: 416-883-5790
info@aegoncapital.ca

Opinions from Mark Jackson, CFA

HOLDCanwel Building Materials Ltd.CWX.UN-T3.310Still thinks there's potential. Payout ratio is about 170% which cannot be sustained without a cut. Also had a one time charge of $2 million which would have left the payout ratio at 128% which is still too high. Have enough to sustain distributions for one or two quarters and hopefully improve their margins.2005-11-15
WEAK BUYExxon MobilXOM-N56.430Have $5 US cash and this could be turned back in the form of a dividend or stock buy back. Will probably use some of it for exploration. All the big oil companies have a lot of cash on hand now. Would rather look to something like Encana (ECA-T) which has more leverage to gas.2005-11-15
TOP PICKFalconbridge LtdFAL-T35.450Likes the company on its own, but it's also being in the midst of a takover. Really likes the Inco (N-T) Falconbridge combination in terms of cost savings. Creates a fairly large Canadian nickel producer which could be a potential take out target. Also thinks there's potential upside in commodity price.2005-11-15
DON'T BUYCoca-Cola CompanyKO-N42.460Q: What is the potential for them in India? A: They have been in that market for some time already, so you are not going to see additional marginal growth. There are better ways to get exposure on a China/India play.2005-11-15
WEAK BUYGlamis GoldGLG-T-X25.870Not a gold bug. Likes some golds here. From a macro perspective he is looking at inflation being a little bit more of a problem going forward, so this might be a good time to own some gold. This company is OK, but he would prefer Goldcorp (G-T).2005-11-15
TOP PICKToronto DominionTD-T58.090There is still opportunities for them to grow. Has strong US expansion opportunities. Has best year over year growth going forward. Looking at 15% (including dividend?) over the next year.2005-11-15
SELLING Canada Inc.IIC-T45.150Not a fan of the property/casualty business because it's very cyclical and a very competitive market place where margins can get squeezed very quickly. They are probably at their best profitability that they've seen for some time and it's likely to turn down.2005-11-15
WAITBiovail Corp.BVF-T31.870Has ahd a very good move in the last couple of months with fairly good announcements and the stock has had a step up in terms of valuation. Wouldn't chase it here, but would wait for a little bit of weakness in the price.2005-11-15
DON'T BUYIBMIBM-N85.530Struggling for growth in the technology space in the US. Very difficult for it to maintain the margins that it had, Would prefer Cisco (CSCO-Q)which is trading at a fairly attractive valuation.2005-11-15
BUYCiscoCSCO-Q17.270Trading at a fairly attractive valuation. Well positioned in its market and has a lot more upside.2005-11-15
BUYNiko ResourcesNKO-T40.650The international oils have all been under significant pressure over the last while. It's due to a couple of things. 1) The international risk, although this company has done fairly well there and 2) the leverage to oil price. If you think the oil will move up again, it will be a good one to own.2005-11-15
DON'T BUYAlcan AluminumAL-T41.500The aluminum commodity looks fairly strong here and inventories have been shrinking. Have seen very good price performance from the underlying metal. Had a good quarter, but before buying would like to see another quarter from them.2005-11-15
TOP PICKShoppers Drug Mart CorpSC-T40.260Has been a great solid story for him. Delivering great front store sales. Same store sales growth has been 5 to 5.5%. Margins have been improving. It's hard to find good growth names in the Canadian market. You can be fairly sure that management will continue to execute.2005-11-15
BUYSuncor Energy IncSU-T63.490Its 3 to 5 year horizon is probably going to be higher just from the fact of continue growth through the oil sands.2005-11-15
BUYPetro-CanPCA-T41.030Oils have seen some fairly good pull backs across the board. Likes this one for its growth potential and its oil sands. Will continue to be able to grow production. Still good upside here.2005-11-15
HOLDCanadian National R.R.CNR-T89.610Likes the company. Has had a fairly good move here and is pushing a point here where it might be worthwhile to take some profits.2005-11-15
BUYQualcomQCOM-Q44.940One of the best companies in the tech space in the US. Opportunities continue to grow for it.2005-11-15
DON'T BUYCott CorpBCB-T16.430Has really come on hard times recently on margin issues. Revenue growth has been difficult. Still early days on this one.2005-11-15
BUY on WEAKNESSCanadian National R.R.CNR-T78.700Expects some upside over the next 12 months. Some concerns on a continued rise in gasoline prices. Would buy if it dropped 10% and sell again on a 10% upside.2005-09-12
DON'T BUYMarch Networks CorpMN-T20.350An interesting company, but has had a big run and is fully valued.2005-09-12
TOP PICKCanwel Building Materials Ltd.CWX.UN-T5.780Pays 16%. Unit trust has come under some pressure after their last earnings release which had some special charges for conversion and an acquisition. They can also get caught on moving commodity prices. Feels there's a very good margin improvement story here. There is talk of a cut in distribution, but feels this is not the case.2005-09-12
DON'T BUYNational Bank of CanadaNA-T58.290Has been doing very well. Valuation has come up to the average. Doesn't trade at a premium to the bank multiple. Prefers banks that can show growth. Prefers Toronto Dominion (TD-T) and Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T).2005-09-12
BUYBank of Nova ScotiaBNS-T41.850Should have good growth.2005-09-12
TOP PICKToronto DominionTD-T56.460Should have good growth. 2 risks facing all banks. We are topping out on the credit cycle so you want to look for a bank with less exposure there. TD has a very large retail presence which tends to immunize them. All banks are generating a significant amount of capital and feel that this one will deploy it for good growth through their US bank.2005-09-12
DON'T BUYBank of AmericaBAC-N42.700You should own US stocks when the Canadian $ is weakening, not gaining strength. However, there is still risk of the US$ going up. Prefers to invest in the US financials through toronto Dominion (TD-T) and its US subsiduary.2005-09-12
BUYEncana CorpECA-T58.600Not sure where the short term oil prices are going, but longer term, feels that higher oil prices will be more than they have been historically. Have been able to show growth through both the drill bit and good acquisitions. 2005-09-12
TOP PICKTalisman EnergyTLM-T57.600Presently we are in a scenario of $40/50 oil prices and $8/9 natural gas prices for the next 12/18 months. This stock is attractively valued at about 4 X enterprise value to EBITDA. Generating close to $5 billion in cash this year.2005-09-12
BUYCenturion Energy InternationalCUX-T12.510You have to cognizant of the fact that because they are operating in Egypt, they don't get world price for natural gas. They are building L & G facilities on the coast which will allow them to get a world price. Sees some upside in their production level.2005-09-12
DON'T BUYGEAC ComputerGAC-T10.900Limited upside at this point in time.2005-09-12
BUYShoppers Drug Mart CorpSC-T40.640Will be a slow and steady performer. Good management. A lot of opportunity to continue to show upside and margin growth. Limited downside risk.2005-09-12
BUYFalconbridge LtdFAL-T28.820Thinks there's upside for the company to continue to grow production and also feels that the pricing of nickel and copper will see some steady pricing for the next 12/18 months.2005-09-12
DON'T BUYCameco CorporationCCO-T47.500Somewhat leery of uranium stocks given the massive run they've had over the last 2/3 years. Pricing is done on a contract basis versus the spot price the people see and quote on the market and with that, you don't always get that ramp up in price and earnings. Junior uraniums especially looked very stretched.2005-04-13
BUYTeck Cominco Ltd. (B)TCK.B-T40.900The market has been volatile and there is a sell off in some of the base metal names. Would look at owning this stock this at some point here. There is still upside. Global growth is still going to continue in China and the US which will create demand for coal and zink.2005-04-13
DON'T BUYJDS UniphaseJDU-T2.140The company itself has a long term future with products that are in demand, but the valuation in the tech sector, despite the big sell off, they're still an expensive stock.2005-04-13
WEAK BUYNortelNT-T3.200Has taken a small position in this. It has sold off so much that there may be an opportunity from this level although would consider it a toe-in. A speculative play. May be some positive news flow.2005-04-13
DON'T BUYAppleAAPL-Q41.040On the valuation side, it looks extremely rich, priced to perfection. Trades in the range of 60 X earnings. Concensus is around $0.24/$0.25 today. Analysts have been upping their numbers, but even at $1 it's 40 X.2005-04-13
DON'T BUYeBay IncEBAY-Q32.790This is one that actually recovered almost everything until the first stumble this quarter where they had a miss. Expects to see the next report in the next week or so. Valuation seems rich.2005-04-13
BUYGerdau Ameristeel CorpGNA-T6.500Likes the company. You have to slice your steel companies into those that have auto exposure versus those that don't. This one doesn't. More geared towards infrastructure spend which is an area he likes. Well run. Have raised money. Solid balance sheet.2005-04-13
BUYGreat West LifecoGWO-T26.800Well run. Very strong management. One risk on the horizon is that they were very astute and hedged a lot of their US$ risk. They do generate a lot of their earnings out of the US. That hedge is coming off so there could be a hit if the $ keeps going up.2005-04-13
BUYRussel MetalsRUS-T15.000Getting attractively priced. 5% + dividend. Looking at a fairly good return. Well run.2005-04-13
BUYIncoN-T46.750Prefers Falconbridge (FL-T) for their nickel exposure. Inco has delivered fairly good results here although it hasn't delivered results that he was expecting given the strength of the nickel markets. The main driver will be where the nickel price is and he believes there won't be a selloff in the price of nickel.2005-04-13
WEAK BUYStelco IncSTE-T3.150Still in CCAA protection, so there is risk that they can't restructure and come out strengthened. Due to the strength of the steel market they will recover, do an equity issue and come out fairly well.2005-04-13
DON'T BUYSun MicrosystemsJAVA-Q4.020Will continue to struggle in the hardware space. Margins are under pressure. Missed on a couple of quarters.2005-04-13
PAST TOP PICKAirIQ IncIQ-T0.530(Was a Top Pick Dec 7/04. No change.) Company is continuing to add more and more subscribers. Thinks it's turning profitable this year. Turning cash flow positive. Starting to ramp up with new products. Pretty excited about the upside for this company. Cheap. If they deliver, it could be $1.20/1.50 stock.2005-04-13
VAGUEResearch In MotionRIM-T92.000In the tech space owns a little of this. Bought on the selloff below $90.2005-04-13
PAST TOP PICKTelus CorpT-T38.220(Was a Top Pick Dec 7/04. Up 16%.) Still likes it. Getting some upside from the wireless side. Still some opportunity for growth through moving to the consumer with new devices. Feels the non-wireless business is not at risk as much as people may expect.2005-04-13
PAST TOP PICKTrue Energy IncTUI-T3.860(Was a Top Pick Dec 7/04. Up 20%.) Did a merger with Meridian Energy which made people think they were going to trust. This is why the valuation kicked up through $5. At this level, the stock is attractive. Could be a 10,000 barrels a day company in a year. 70% of their production is natural gas, which they like.2005-04-13
WEAK BUYAur ResourcesAUR-T7.010Challenged on the growth side in terms of new production. It's more of a play on the copper price. There is some consolidation in the metals market which might give some upside. Could be a takeout candidate.2005-04-13
BUYEncana CorpECA-T82.060Although it doesn't affect a company, stock splits seem to do wonders for stocks. Encana has strong fundamentals. Has been very good at adding on new and profitable production.2005-04-13
SELLUTS EnergyUTS-T2.120Buying a company in the oil sands, this would not be his 1st choice. Well over valued. At best it's probably worth $1.25/1.50. There is a significant amount of additional capital that has to be raised before the project gets up and running. His #1 pick would be Western Oil Sands (WTO-T).2005-04-13
BUYWestern Oil Sands Inc.WTO-T54.150His #1 pick in the Canadian oil sands.2005-04-13
BUYWal-Mart Stores Inc.WMT-N48.570Starting to look attractive at these level. In retail sales out of the US, the discounters were the ones still showing growth. Valuation is starting to become fairly attractive. Trading around 17/18 X earnings. On his radar to look at.2005-04-13
BUYAlcan AluminumAL-T44.510Have seen good strength in aluminum even though the price recently sold off a bit. Should be able to generate some fairly significant cash flow this year. Has been under pressure because they have not been able to deliver additional earnings right away fro the Pechene acquisition. 2005-04-13
DON'T BUYAbitibiBowater Inc.ABH-T5.510Probably too late in the cycle to get into the newsprint stocks. Has a stretched balanced sheet which should be of concern.2005-04-13
WEAK BUYSuncor Energy IncSU-T46.500Feels there is better growth outside of Suncor in the oil patch, specifically in the oil sands area. That being said, it's a well run company and will do you well from these levels. Prefers Western Oil Sands (WTO-T) which is more of a pure play.2005-04-13
WEAK BUYChevron TexacoCVX-N54.270Will be paying fat dividends for a while. Generates a lot of cash at these oil prices. Be concerned on owning US names for dividends as you have to pay a withholding tax. Imperial Oil (IMO-T) might be better.2005-04-13
BUYCenturion Energy InternationalCUX-T12.000There's been a lot of money flowing into international oils. This one has been a great story and has shown some great growth. Starting to look fairly attractive at this price. Still some upside from here.2005-04-13
SELLBombardier Inc (B)BBD.B-T2.470Prospects for growth are limited. The cost structure still needs to be addressed. Earnings are likely to disappoint over the next 2/3 quarters.2005-04-13
DON'T BUYHudbay Minerals Inc.HBM-T3.150To own this, you have to be positive on zink. It's a one-mine company. Highly leveraged to zink. Prefers companies that have larger or more diversified operations.2005-04-13
HOLDPan Ocean Energy Corp Ltd (B)POC.B-T24.350Although there has been growth, can see some potential weakness on the stock because of the overall weakness on the oil market and the illiquidity of this name. Likes the company.2005-04-13
DON'T BUYJacobs Engineering Group Inc.JEC-N53.340All the engineering companies have been doing fairly well in the last while. This one has good exposure. They've been working in oil sands quite a bit. Valuation looks like it's stretched. For a Canadian play on this that's trading a little bit cheaper, SNC-Lavalin (SNC-T) might be one, but even its evaluation looks stretched.2005-04-13
TOP PICKGildan Activewear Inc.GIL-T56.750Although it's had a good run, valuations still look attractive. Have had dominance in the Tshirt business. Thinks that is going to move out into golf as well as their own brand of products for the Wal-marts of the world. Moving production into Central America with very low costs.2005-04-13
TOP PICKShell CanadaSHC-T82.250Started raising some money out of their junior oils at the end of last year with the big rup up they had, but still wanted some exposure so started looking at the integrateds. This one was cheap to its NAV and earnings, had some upside and still had exposure to the oil sands. Little price risk to the movement in oil price.2005-04-13
TOP PICKCanwel Building Materials Ltd.CWX.UN-T19.650Have announced conversion to an income trust with a special $1.25 dividend. Going to rais some money and do a secondary issue. Liquidity is going to increase. Split 2 for 1 and pay $0.98 a share. All that combined puts a near term target price somewhere near the $22 range. Still opportunity to grow margins and to continue to consolidate.2005-04-13
DON'T BUYSNC-Lavalin Group Inc.SNC-T62.000Well run. Company has a lot of opportunities. Stock has become a little too rich. Would like to see it back in the $50 range before they bought.2005-02-01
WAITQLT IncQLT-T19.940Because of the acquisition they just did, would like to see a couple of quarters of results out of the new drugs that are in that acquisition. Has seen some weakness with a 10/15% decline in sales.2005-02-01
TOP PICKFalconbridge LtdFAL-T32.000Looks cheap. Fundamentals on the nickel side are such that there should be continued strength in the price. Not expecting prices to go up, but the supply situation is such that there shouldn't be too much downward pressure this year. Very strong balance sheet generating a good cash flow. Growing production and lowering costs on production.2005-02-01
DON'T BUYNovelis Inc. (bought by Hindalco an Indian based compaNVL-T28.450Sold their position shortly after the spinout. Had owned Alcan as a play on the aluminum commodity and weren't interested in the rolled product business. A good business, but the debt levels looked fairly high. Valuation looks attractive. Will probably be bit of an orphan stock in regards to street coverage.2005-02-01
BUYProctor & GamblePG-N52.870Would have to have a look at the Gillette business. At the end of the day, this is a company that's going to have some pretty powerful brands. Probably will be able to take costs out of the business. On their radar screen. 2005-02-01
DON'T BUYGerdau Ameristeel CorpGNA-T7.000Well run company. Steel cycle continues to look attractive. In some areas that are going to come under some near term pricing pressure, specifically rebars. Has had a good run, but needs to come back to the $5/6 range before they buy.2005-02-01
TOP PICKHarris Steel Group Inc.HSG-T20.600Underfollowed in the past because it had fairly limited trading flow. A significant amount of the company was held by the Harris family. Also they were using free cash flow to buy back stock. Did a secondary offering which took the Harris family down to about 50%. Well diversified in business applications. Looks relatively cheap.2005-02-01
WEAK BUYBank of AmericaBAC-N46.680When looking at this bank, you have to look at the credit cycle and where we are in the credit cycle. Good track record of working its way through that. Even if corporate profitability turns over during the next 8/24 months, they should do OK in the areas they are in. Yield of 3.8%. Prefers Canadian financials without any currency risk.2005-02-01
BUYSherritS-T10.000Good company with a fairly good portfolio of global properties. Good valuation. Doesn't own as they prefer a more focused play on nickel as an example. Should do well in this environment.2005-02-01
BUYGeorge Weston Ltd.WN-T111.660With this, you are buying a proxy on Loblaws which is hitting new 52 wek highs. Trading at 17 X earnings which is not too bad. The bakery business has been hurt by the Atkins diet craze. Just got a 5% pricing increase from Wal Mart.2005-02-01
TOP PICKToronto DominionTD-T48.600Valuation looks attractive. Trading at an average multiple and over time it should get back to a premium multiple. Likes the acquisition in the US although it comes with some risk.2005-02-01
BUYAirIQ IncIQ-T0.530Still likes. Has been volatile which can be expected with a small company. Very strong management. In an area where it is expected there will be very strong growth. If they execute on their plan, the stock could be in the $1 range in the next 12/18 months.2005-02-01
BUYGreat West LifecoGWO-T27.950Likes the group. Has been able to deliver earnings growth year in year out. Valuation looks attractive. Owns Power Financial instead.2005-02-01
WAITLeitch TechLTV-T8.000This is a critical year for this company. Attractive at these levels, but needs to do a little more work to see if it's the right time to own. Have had some issues getting costs under control. Would like to see another quarter.2005-02-01
DON'T BUYBombardier Inc (B)BBD.B-T2.640Have probably seen the stock bottom. Wouldn't buy just yet. Need to see a pickup on the commercial side of regional jets.2005-02-01
TOP PICKTrue Energy IncTUI-T3.290Have had significant production with about 6,100 barrels this year and looking for 7,500 or more next year. Good management. Relatively cheap to the rest of the group. Could ultimately be a trust.2004-12-07
TOP PICKAirIQ IncIQ-T0.440The people behind this are the same ones that started up Clearnet, so good management. Expects the company to turn cash flow positive next year and profitability the year after.2004-12-07
BUYLe Château Inc. (A)CTU.A-T24.100Likes the specialty retailing group which are poised to do well for the holiday season. 2004-12-07
BUYWest 49 Inc.WXX-T0.860Likes the specialty retailing group which are poised to do well for the holiday season. 2004-12-07
BUYLeitch TechLTV-T8.120A disappointment with the earnings dropped the stock. Still thinks there's an opportunity. Getting to be attractive at these prices.2004-12-07
DON'T BUYCAE IncCAE-T4.580Has never been a big fan of this company. Growth prospects look fairly limited. Customer base is under pressure.2004-12-07
BUYCanWest Global Comm.CGS-T12.970From a net asset value perspective, there is lots of value. Feels there can be considerable upside from here. Even though there was weakness in conventional TV, the numbers next year should be OK.2004-12-07
DON'T BUYBombardier Inc (B)BBD.B-T2.750Still significant risk in the re-structuring. End markets are not recovering yet. More costs that have to be brought into line.2004-12-07
DON'T BUYBiovail Corp.BVF-T19.000Even though it looks cheap on a valuation basis, there still seems to be risk of events that can't be forcast.2004-12-07
DON'T BUYCinramCRW.UN-T19.900Doesn't expect to see any catalyst for this stock over the next quarter or two. Their guidance reflected that they saw some weakness ahead. Has always been concerned with more and more audio and video being delivered over different media. Well run company and good management, but limited upside.2004-12-07
BUYNokiaNOK-N16.210After a couple of stumbles is looking fairly attractive from a valuation perspective. There is a continued global demand for wireless product and Nokia is right in the middle. There are still opportunities for the company to do well.2004-12-07
DON'T BUYCanadian Natural RsrcsCNQ-T45.950A high component of their production is in heavy oil which tends to trade at a fairly wide spread to West Texas oil. The spread is putting pressure on CNQ. Affecting all oil companies is the Cdn$ being understated in the market's expectations. Also have a heavy oil project in Alberta which is going to drain on their capital expenditures.2004-12-07
BUYPrecision DrillingPD-T71.000Likes the drillers. Cash flow that is being generated out west by oil companies is being poured back into drilling. Prefers Ensign as the vauations looks a little more attractive. A very well run company. 2004-12-07
BUYEnsign Resource Service GroupESI-T23.340Likes the drillers. Cash flow that is being generated out west by oil companies is being poured back into drilling. Prefers over Precision Drilling as vauations look a little more attractive.2004-12-07
BUY on WEAKNESSCameco CorporationCCO-T108.650Sees a real potential increase in the price of uranium without too much supply coming on stream. Demand is growing at 2/3% a year with supply being relatively flat. Fundamentals look solid for the next 2/3 years.2004-12-07
BUY on WEAKNESSCenturion Energy InternationalCUX-T10.220Majority of their drilling comes from Egypt. Looks like they have significant growth potential. The stock grew so rapidly, they took some profits. Would buy back in the $7/8 range.2004-12-07
PAST TOP PICKCanwel Building Materials Ltd.CWX.UN-T8.700(A past Top Pick Oct 4/04. Up 16%.) Still likes it. Cheap. Looking for $1 in earnings. Trading at just over 8 X. Just doing an acquisition which is very accretive.2004-12-07
PAST TOP PICKBank of Nova ScotiaBNS-T39.380(A past Top Pick Oct 4/04. Up 5%.) Still likes the banks. Feels this a bank that can deploy its new capital and create shareholder value. Likes their Latin America exposure.2004-12-07
PAST TOP PICKTalisman EnergyTLM-T30.900(A past Top Pick Oct 4/04. Down 6%.) Sold it recently as he could see some weakness in the oils.2004-12-07
BUYPower CorpPOW-T29.370A stock that you can put away and forget about. Exceptionally good management. Never gets overly expensive. Always seems to be 12/13 X earnings. 12/13% growth.2004-12-07
BUYPower Financial CorpPWF-T30.180A stock that you can put away and forget about. Exceptionally good management. Never gets overly expensive. Always seems to be 12/13 X earnings. 12/13% growth.2004-12-07


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