STOCKCHASE

0.020

Oil. It's a great environment for oil but at $95 she is concerned that it could be a drag on the world economy. If the price changed very quickly, it could impact GDP. Saudis, because of social programs needed, have to have a bare minimum of $90 Brent oil to break even.

2011-11-08

Comment

Bellatrix Exploration Ltd.

0.020

Natural gas. Believes production costs are higher than what the producers are claiming. They tend to give half cycle costs, which is how much it costs to drill and produce, but does not include what they have sank into it, land costs, etc. Expect it will be 2014-2015 before gas will be exported through LNG. Also, the US EPA wants to change regulations to make it preferable to burn gas.

2011-11-08

BUY

Trilogy Energy Corp

TET-T

35.730

This company because they have done a good job in finding more Montne oil. The next leg will be, instead of just finding oil, production growth, expected to be 10,000 barrels a day next year. Substantial free cash flow.

2011-11-08

DON'T BUY

Penn West Petroleum

PWT-T

18.580

In the past, have had problems executing. There will be a transition with the new CEO. There has been a lot of noise lately, particularly with production. Shut 40,000 barrels a day down in the summer. For a 70,000 barrels a day company, that is a lot. Misguided their 2012 production numbers.

2011-11-08

BUY

BXE-T

4.780

Very well run. About 60% gas weighted. Have been able to grow to about 13,000 barrels a day now and are expected to exit at 15,000 a day. One of the few companies that have made or exceeded their targets in the past. Reasonably valued at just under 5X EBITDA.

2011-11-08

PAST TOP PICK

Bankers Petroleum

BNK-T

5.600

(A Top Pick Dec 7/10. Down 21.77%.)

2011-11-08

Comment

Coastal Energy

CEN-T

13.800

Having a good turnaround where they are finding reserves and growing reserves. Have turned down takeover offers.

2011-11-08

BUY

Trinidad Drilling Ltd

TDG-T

8.440

Seasonally, this is a good time to enter drilling and oil service stocks. You exit late Q1 or early Q2. Valuation is pretty well in line but debt is higher than normal. Pays a pretty good distribution.

2011-11-08

BUY

Open Range Energy Corp.

ONR-T

2.510

Spun out their tank business, which is why the stock price has dropped. Company is about 90% gas. They can make money with the present gas prices and they produce about 4600 barrels a day and will be exiting at 6000 barrels a day. A lot of great growth and is reasonably priced.

2011-11-08

PAST TOP PICK

5.640

(A Top Pick Dec 7/10. Up 5.97%.)

2011-11-08

PAST TOP PICK

5.640

(A Top Pick Dec 7/10. Up 5.97%.)

2011-11-08

TOP PICK

Parex Resources Inc.

PXT-T

8.230

A Colombian producer. Last year they were barely producing anything but today they are producing 11,000 barrels and will be producing 14,000 by year-end. Very high-growth company. Strong management team.

2011-11-08

DON'T BUY

Petromanas Energy Inc.

PMI-X

0.165

In Albania where Bankers Petroleum (BNK-T) are located, but there is a big difference between these 2 companies. Bankers is a well established field, producing for decades and decades. Petromanas is very much an exploration story. There is a lot of risk and the wells are very expensive.

2011-11-08

TOP PICK

Altagas Ltd

ALA-T

26.280

Growth in 2011 because they will have some new gas plants. In 2012 there will be more growth. 18% increase in cash flows due to some power projects they are bringing on. Big one will be 2014 when they will have over 100 MW for a project in British Columbia. Cash flow will double by 2016.

2011-07-05

BUY

Bonavista Energy Corp

BNP-T

28.690

Good dividend stock. About 45% payout ratio. Sustainable model. Expect they will be able to grow production. One of their key assets is a gas play where they can still make it work if gas is at $1 only.

2011-07-05

PAST TOP PICK

Connacher Oil and Gas

CLL-T

1.090

(A Top Pick April 5/10. Down 38.01%.) Had expected oil prices to rally and they did but this company didn’t keep up so she sold and broke even.

2011-07-05

DON'T BUY

Husky Energy

HSE-T

26.510

Production hasn't risen much beyond last year. New CEO’s experience is in running cell phones companies and will take a boat 2 years for him to learn the oil business. There has been a lack of focus and direction for a long time.

2011-07-05

PAST TOP PICK

Crescent Point Energy Corp

43.800

(A Top Pick April 5/10. Up 75.16%.)

2011-07-05

SELL

Niko Resources

NKO-T

63.670

There could still be some weakness in the stock. NAV is about $40. We'll find out how the Kurdistan well has done in about a month. The big exploration program won't be on till 2012 when they drill in Indonesia.

2011-07-05

BUY

CPG-T

44.200

Have issued a lot of stock to raise money for acquisitions. Have been able to create one of the best assets in Western Canada. About 55% payout ratio and distributions should be safe. The upside for them is the water flood that stems their declines.

2011-07-05

Comment

0.020

Oil. Very tight and she can't see it going below $90 unless Libya comes back online, which she doesn't expect.

2011-07-05

TOP PICK

Transglobe Energy

TGL-T

12.000

Market is shying away from this one because it is in Egypt. There have been no disruptions and they are being well treated by the government. Will be able to grow 40% every year. Have been able to make very good acquisitions because other companies are leaving Egypt.

2011-07-05

BUY

Trilogy Energy Corp

TET-T

23.750

Drilling more Montne oil wells making their oil rate go up thereby increasing margins. Expects them to grow production by 20% in 2012.

2011-07-05

PAST TOP PICK

6.560

(A Top Pick April 5/10. Up 4.27%.)

2011-07-05

BUY

Twin Butte Energy

TBE-T

2.630

Had some management issues and difficulty in growing production a few years ago. New management has turned it around. Not expensive.

2011-07-05

BUY

Ithaca Energy Inc.

IAE-T

2.320

North Sea producer. With the Jackie (?) well coming on, the stock price has gone up on anticipation of the catalyst. The next catalyst will be Athena when it comes on in Q4. Not expensive at 2.5x EBITDA to next year and has a lot of cash.

2011-07-05

TOP PICK

5.660

A junior in Western Canada. Have the second biggest oilfield in Canada and they own land around this. Great takeover target. NAV is about $4.50, which could probably be doubled on a takeover.

2011-07-05

DON'T BUY

PetroBakken Energy

PBN-T

14.020

Bought Cardium land at a very expensive price. Difficult for them to grow because their 40%-50% decline rates are so high. Production of 40,000-41,000 in Q1 and could be 37,000. Weather has been very difficult in southeast Saskatchewan. Really should cut their distributions.

2011-07-05

DON'T BUY

Cenovus Energy

CVE-T

36.500

Benefiting from the trend in the oil sands of the tremendous cost inflation on the mining side. They do more of the SAGD drilling were there is a lot less cost inflation. About half of their production is still natural gas but that will change over time. Fully priced.

2011-07-05

DON'T BUY

MEG Energy Corp

MEG-T

51.360

Great company. Probably had the best ramp up of any Alberta oil sands producer. Well run. You are paying a lot for the future. Fully priced.

2011-07-05

Comment

Bonterra Energy Corp

BNE-T

57.040

Very small company and they rarely issue stock so there is not a lot of coverage. They own part of a Pembina/Cardium play. Almost 100% oil and are un-hedged. Pays a healthy distribution. Declines are about 20% lower than normal. Can grow production about 8%-10% annually.

2011-05-09

PAST TOP PICK

Connacher Oil and Gas

CLL-T

1.220

(A Top Pick April 5/10. Down 18.07%.) Execution wasn't as good as she had hoped.

2011-05-09

PAST TOP PICK

39.550

(A Top Pick April 5/10. Up 59.11%.) Gas processor. Still likes. Paying out about 60%-70% of their cash flow as dividends.

2011-05-09

PAST TOP PICK

Crescent Point Energy Corp

39.550

(A Top Pick April 5/10. Up 59.11%.) Gas processor. Still likes. Paying out about 60%-70% of their cash flow as dividends.

2011-05-09

Comment

NAL Energy Corp

NAE-T

12.660

This is an income play. You get about 6% dividend. Low payout/ratio. 50-50 oil and gas. Not a risky company but there won't be a lot of growth.

2011-05-09

DON'T BUY

Precision Drilling

PD-T

13.860

Switch from Molycorp (MCP-N)? Depends on your risk tolerance. Moly is a more steady dividend payer while Precision ebbs and flows with oil field services. You typically want to Buy oil field services in November/December and Sell about now. Now coming into their worst quarter.

2011-05-09

Comment

Suncor Energy Inc

SU-T

40.610

Will be a lot of volatility because they have locations in Libya and Syria. Ramping up their oil sands production and what worries her is the large amount of capital over costs to come as they are lumping some projects together.

2011-05-09

Comment

Trans Canada Corp

TRP-T

41.380

Switch from this to NAL Energy (NAE-T)? Depends on your risk profile as TransCanada is a lower risk name. NAL's fortunes are still connected to commodity prices and TransCanada less so. Big issue with TransCanada now is the mainline tolls. Currently it's $1.89, which the producers feel it's too high..

2011-05-09

TOP PICK

CPG-T

43.960

Indicated they won't be cutting the distribution. Break up was very wet this year and people have been selling, so it's a good opportunity. Will meet their guidance.

2011-05-09

Comment

0.020

Oil. Expects oil to be $110-$120 a year from now. Looks like the war in Libya will continue for another 6 months . Also, there has been a lot of noise about demand/destruction in the US and China. Sees demand growing in China and India.

2011-05-09

Comment

Bellatrix Exploration Ltd.

0.020

Natural gas. Could see a short term rally as quite often there is a spring rally as the short positions are at record amounts. Doesn't see the price much above $5 this year. Every month the US is still showing a record amount and they are still drilling.

2011-05-09

TOP PICK

BXE-T

5.100

Junior producer in western Canada. About 60% gas and 40% oil and are increasing their oil weight. Increased guidance from 13,000 to 15,000 a day. Good management. High growth company.

2011-05-09

PAST TOP PICK

6.840

(A Top Pick April 5/10. Up 6.65%.)

2011-05-09

PAST TOP PICK

6.840

(A Top Pick April 5/10. Up 6.65%.)

2011-05-09

Comment

Ithaca Energy Inc.

IAE-T

2.360

North Sea producer of about 5,000 barrels a day. Has been a lot of noise in the North Sea recently including tax increases, abandoning liabilities and mitigation of tax changes. North Sea is very difficult because of high costs, very weather dependent, hostile environment in winter. Cheap at 2.5X price to cash flow. Enough cash for funding another year or two. Expects a big production bump in Q4 so there will probably be a bump in the share price.

2011-05-09

BUY on WEAKNESS

PetroBakken Energy

PBN-T

17.140

New in the Pembina/Cardium area and with newer productions you have higher declines. Theirs is about 40%. They have to spend a lot more money to maintain production. Weather created problems for them last year. Would like it at $16.

2011-05-09

DON'T BUY

GasFrac Energy Services

GFS-T

10.990

A fracture stimulation company and fundamentals in this sector are very good because with the shale gas and tight oil, you need frac stimulation to break the rock. This company uses propane, which is somewhat in the experimental stage. The big issue is safety because propane is highly flammable. Doubling the capacity every year so safety standards are more important. Expensive stock. High risk.

2011-05-09

DON'T BUY

Donnybrook Energy

DEI-X

0.590

Strategy has been to follow Celtic Exploration (CLT-T) so this is a leveraged play on Celtic's Resthaven play. Results on drilling have been disappointing. Very difficult for a small company like this to drill the expensive wells.

2011-05-09

TOP PICK

C&C Energia

CZE-T

12.520

Colombian producer. And produce about 8,000 barrels a day and are one of the cheapest Colombian companies. Good balance of production, cash flow, light oil and good exploration program.

2011-05-09

TOP PICK

Peyto Exploration & Develop.

35.050

Mid-stream gas processor. All their plants are where there is gas production. Benefiting from natural gas liquids, which are linked to oil prices rather than gas prices. Payout ratio is low at about 60%. Good chance they could increase the 5.1% yield.

2011-02-09

HOLD

NAL Energy Corp

NAE-T

12.960

A dividend stock so won’t be a lot of growth. 6.4% yield is sustainable. One of the cheaper yielding stocks. Conservatively run.

2011-02-09

HOLD

Niko Resources

NKO-T

81.750

Production at D6 in India has had some reservoir issues so the stock has fallen. Also has a been a drilling delay on D4 because of their partner Reliance.

2011-02-09

TOP PICK

PEY-T

18.540

Gas. At current prices, they not only still make money but also can grow production. Grew 28% last year and expects 25%-30% growth this year. Low payout ratio of about 35%.

2011-02-09

DON'T BUY

Suncor Energy Inc

SU-T

40.490

Reasonably priced for $83-$85 oil. Close to being fully valued.

2011-02-09

DON'T BUY

Sterling Resources

SLG-X

4.720

UK North Sea. Mostly exploration/development so you won’t see production for some time. Needs exploration success for the stock to go up. Very good chance of hitting in their development wells in Cladhan (?). Also drilling in Romania. Will need capital so expects there will be a new equity issue.

2011-02-09

PAST TOP PICK

Bellatrix Exploration Ltd.

BXE-T

5.520

(A Top Pick Feb 8.10. Up 27.78%.) Still likes.

2011-02-09

PAST TOP PICK

Bankers Petroleum

BNK-T

8.700

(A Top Pick Feb 8.10. Up 59.89%.) Still likes.

2011-02-09

TOP PICK

Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp.

PRE-T

30.790

One of the biggest oil producers in Colombia. Feels they can grow production 35%-40% this year without any exploration. Also drilling some exploration, which should add to their value.

2011-02-09

Comment

Coastal Energy

CEN-T

7.280

Exploration track record hasn’t been very good but has been improving lately. Have vast acreage and not a lot of wells have been drilled. Their biggest shareholder just sold a big block. Very cheap on a cash flow basis.

2011-02-09

PAST TOP PICK

Southern Pacific Resource

8.780

(A Top Pick Feb 8.10. Up 65.72%.) Still likes.

2011-02-09

BUY

Sea Dragon Energy Inc.

SDX-X

0.250

Egyptian oil producer. Has been hit because of getting supplies due to Egyptian riots etc. Have had troubles executing. Fields are far away from insurgencies. Not expensive.

2011-02-09

HOLD

PetroBakken Energy

PBN-T

21.290

Have not performed well lately. Paid a lot of money for companies without a lot of resources. There are questions if current management is the team to take it to the next level. A “show me” story. Decline rate in production is about 40%-50%, which is very high. 4.5% yield. Starting to look interesting.

2011-02-09

TOP PICK

Bonterra Energy Corp

BNE-T

44.350

Mostly oil and a good yield of about 50%. If oil yield becomes 60% they‘ll likely increase distributions. Growth is at 10%-15%.

2010-12-07

BUY

Canadian Natural Rsrcs

CNQ-T

43.070

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-t) or Suncor (SU-T)? Both are good but prefers CNQ because they have already come out with their capital budget, which is on the upside but Suncor has not. This is a fantastic company that is very concerned on return of capital.

2010-12-07

BUY

Canadian Oil Sands

COS-T

24.510

Mining project. Market seems to prefer smaller SAGD projects because of mining environmental liabilities and heavier costs. Lot of torque with royalties and operating costs creating $60 a barrel. Dropped too much on announcement of distribution cuts.

2010-12-07

DON'T BUY

Husky Energy

HSE-T

24.700

New CEO is a good sign but any turn around will take longer than expected. Still not sure what the new CEO’s vision is.

2010-12-07

DON'T BUY

Imperial Oil

IMO-T

37.480

Under performer over the past year. One of the lowest beta stocks in the energy universe. Well run and low debt. Expensive and doesn’t see any catalyst for the next year. Expecting Kearl to be higher but doesn’t know by how much.

2010-12-07

Comment

Suncor Energy Inc

SU-T

36.660

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-t) or Suncor (SU-T)? Both are good but prefers CNQ. Suncor has not come out with their capital budget but it could be negative.

2010-12-07

BUY

Daylight Energy Ltd

DAY-T (Dead)

10.030

One of the cheaper yield vehicles and balanced between oil and gas. Hitting some good oil in the Cardium. Spending more than cash flow because they are growing the company. Good balance between growth and yield.

2010-12-07

PAST TOP PICK

Pengrowth Energy

PGF-T

13.270

(A Top Pick Nov 18/09. Up 39.26%.)

2010-12-07

TOP PICK

Bankers Petroleum

BNK-T

6.980

Likes big oil fields which this is and in a fairly stable part of the world, Albania. 6 Billion barrel field. Have only extracted about 3% of the oil in play.

2010-12-07

PAST TOP PICK

BlackPearl Resources Inc

PXX-T

5.550

(A Top Pick Nov 18/09. Up 160.55%.)

2010-12-07

DON'T BUY

STP-T

1.680

Oil sands Senlac project looks good but the McKay project is really their big one but the problem is how to fund it, which they are trying to do with a debt issue. Will be about 2 years before production.

2010-12-07

BUY

Canacol Energy Ltd.

CNE-T

1.630

Mainly Colombia but with some in Brazil. Own 10% of the Capella field in Colombia, which is one of the biggest oil field discoveries in the last 25 years. Good future.

2010-12-07

TOP PICK

5.190

Very large position surrounding the Swan Hills oil field. So far results have been very good so thinks this will be a great take-out candidate.

2010-12-07

PAST TOP PICK

Cirrus Energy Corp

CYR-X (Dead)

0.730

(A Top Pick Nov 18/09. Down 75.94%.)

2010-12-07

Comment

Athabaska Oil Sands Corp

ATH-T

14.500

Very special case as there won’t be production until 2014. Management is working on some options such as another joint venture partner or selling the company. It’s either dead money or management will make something happen.

2010-12-07

Comment

GasFrac Energy Services

GFS-T

8.850

New fracing system using propane, which can go in as liquid and come out as gas without damaging reservoirs. Very good with some of the older or more difficult reservoirs.

2010-12-07

PAST TOP PICK

Arc Resources Ltd

ARX-T

21.290

(A Top Pick June 30/09. Up 24.33%.) Gas weighted so could be in for a rough summer.

2010-04-05

Comment

Bonavista Energy Corp

BNP-T

23.600

Will be transitioning to a growth and income model where they will try to grow the reserves production as well as pay a dividend come 2011. Because of this, they will likely cut their distribution.

2010-04-05

TOP PICK

Connacher Oil and Gas

CLL-T

1.710

Oil sands producer. In less than 2 weeks, their new Algar (?) project will be coming on and a month later they commission and then start steaming and in about 3 months get production so that next year production will have pretty well doubled. Trading at about 6X NAV.

2010-04-05

PAST TOP PICK

Celtic Exploration Ltd.

CLT-T

21.370

(A Top Pick June 30/09. Up 35.07%.) Gas weighted so could be in for a rough summer.

2010-04-05

DON'T BUY

Compton Petroleum

CMT-T

0.990

Exceedingly leveraged to gas. High operating costs. Balance sheet is exceedingly heavy and haven't seen evidence of them turning this around.

2010-04-05

PAST TOP PICK

Canadian Natural Rsrcs

CNQ-T

79.890

(A Top Pick June 30/09. Up 31.22%.) Starting to break out of its range. Still a Hold.

2010-04-05

DON'T BUY

Encana Corp

ECA-T

33.000

Large-cap gas stock and will trade with the price of gas. Seasonally strong for oil but seasonally weak for gas, so she prefers oil.

2010-04-05

Comment

Enerplus Corp

ERF-T

24.490

Gas weighted. Payout ratio is under 50% so distribution should be safe. Will probably convert at the end of this year. Doesn't see a lot of growth until at least 2012 because reserves had been written down and will also be disposing of some assets. Their growth engine is the Marcellus shale in Pennsylvania. You could hold for yield.

2010-04-05

TOP PICK

26.770

Midstream gas processor. When they convert, they don't have to cut the 7% distribution because their payout is about 65%. With that payout they will still be able to give organic growth.

2010-04-05

Comment

Daylight Energy Ltd

DAY-T (Dead)

10.690

Acquiring West Energy (WTL-T). Doesn't think there will be much arbitrage because you can either buy cash and shares or all shares and it looks like everyone will want cash and there is only so much cash available.

2010-04-05

Comment

Questerre Energy

QEC-T

4.130

Utica shale is probably the most difficult geologically wide because there has been a lot of Teutonic action there. This is typically not very good for shale gas. Last couple of wells have been good and it is close to market for good transportation. Thinks the play will take longer than expected. Early days right now.

2010-04-05

TOP PICK