STOCKCHASE

Keyera Facilities Income Fund

33.000

Large-cap gas stock and will trade with the price of gas. Seasonally strong for oil but seasonally weak for gas, so she prefers oil.

2010-04-05

Comment

Ithaca Energy Inc.

IAE-X

2.250

One of the cheaper stocks as it has been a turnaround and is in the North Sea, which has a very short reserve life. Next 2 weeks should give news on their Stellar well, which should tell whether the stock goes up or down.

2010-04-05

Comment

Questerre Energy

QEC-T

4.130

Utica shale is probably the most difficult geologically wide because there has been a lot of Teutonic action there. This is typically not very good for shale gas. Last couple of wells have been good and it is close to market for good transportation. Thinks the play will take longer than expected. Early days right now.

2010-04-05

Comment

Souhern Pacific Resource

STP-T

1.440

Biggest IPO in many years in the oil sands will be happening Wednesday with the Athabascan oil sands. A lot of the other ancillary oil sands companies have been running up on this and this is one of them.

2010-04-05

Comment

Twin Butte Energy

TBE-T

1.340

Very cheap company. Growth will be coming on the heavy oil side. Has been range bound so you really need them to deliver on heavy oil production.

2010-04-05

Comment

Daylight Resources Trust

DAY-T

10.690

Acquiring West Energy (WTL-T). Doesn't think there will be much arbitrage because you can either buy cash and shares or all shares and it looks like everyone will want cash and there is only so much cash available.

2010-04-05

Comment

Bonavista Energy Trust

BNP.UN-T

23.600

Will be transitioning to a growth and income model where they will try to grow the reserves production as well as pay a dividend come 2011. Because of this, they will likely cut their distribution.

2010-04-05

DON'T BUY

Compton Petroleum

CMT-T

0.990

Exceedingly leveraged to gas. High operating costs. Balance sheet is exceedingly heavy and haven't seen evidence of them turning this around.

2010-04-05

TOP PICK

KEY.UN-T

26.770

Midstream gas processor. When they convert, they don't have to cut the 7% distribution because their payout is about 65%. With that payout they will still be able to give organic growth.

2010-04-05

TOP PICK

6.320

Embarking on a big exploration program, both in Colombia and Peru and the news should be available in the next couple of months. Solid cash flow.

2010-04-05

TOP PICK

1.710

Oil sands producer. In less than 2 weeks, their new Algar (?) project will be coming on and a month later they commission and then start steaming and in about 3 months get production so that next year production will have pretty well doubled. Trading at about 6X NAV.

2010-04-05

PAST TOP PICK

21.290

(A Top Pick June 30/09. Up 24.33%.) Gas weighted so could be in for a rough summer.

2010-04-05

PAST TOP PICK

21.370

(A Top Pick June 30/09. Up 35.07%.) Gas weighted so could be in for a rough summer.

2010-04-05

PAST TOP PICK

Bellatrix Exploration Ltd.

79.890

(A Top Pick June 30/09. Up 31.22%.) Starting to break out of its range. Still a Hold.

2010-04-05

TOP PICK

Bankers Petroleum

BNK-T

5.610

Biggest onshore oilfield (5 billion barrels) in Europe and have only recovered 3%. Current stock price means you can recover another 2%-3% while in Western Canada they expect 15% recovery so there is a lot of upside left.

2010-02-08

TOP PICK

BXE-T

4.140

Sold a lot of assets and issued some convertible debentures so they now have about $1 cash per share. In one of the hottest plays, the Cardium. Very reasonably priced.

2010-02-08

TOP PICK

5.310

Their biggest field will be flat at 19,000 barrels a day giving steady cash flow. $150 million cash so they will have a very active exploration program including some big wells in Peru.

2010-02-08

PAST TOP PICK

20.040

(A Top Pick June 30/09. Up 18.57%.) Still a buy.

2010-02-08

PAST TOP PICK

20.360

(A Top Pick June 30/09. Up 32.72%.) Still a buy.

2010-02-08

PAST TOP PICK

Petrobank Energy and Resources

69.030

(A Top Pick June 30/09. Up 15.05%.) Still a buy.

2010-02-08

SELL

Galleon Energy Inc.

GO-T

5.390

Have not been able to make production targets for the last 3 years. There are questions as to whether they can grow.

2010-02-08

DON'T BUY

Enerplus Resources Fund

ERF.UN-T

22.610

Going sideways because they haven't given much guidance as to what they want to be in 2011. Thinks it will probably be a high dividend payout model.

2010-02-08

SELL

Precision Drilling

PD-T

8.560

Rig count peaked at 1600 and she thinks 900-1000 will be sufficient because horizontal drilling gives 3 or 4 times more production than vertical. Earnings are coming down. Could be a quick trade but she wouldn't hold it.

2010-02-08

DON'T BUY

Suncor Energy Inc

SU-T

31.280

Last quarter was not very good because integration with Petrocan is still going on. You will still get some messy quarters.

2010-02-08

DON'T BUY

PBG-T

50.150

A conglomerate with about 60% of share price being PetroBakken (PBN-T), 30% Petrominerales (PMG-T) and 10% oil sands and the Thai technology. Had expected PetroBakken to be a pure Bakken play but instead they have spent a large amount of money in the Cardium area. Also thinks the decline rates are very high. Valuation is too high.

2010-02-08

BUY

Ithaca Energy Inc.

IAE-X

1.550

Been through the worst and still have about $60 million of cash. One of the cheapest stocks at 2.5X price to cash flow. Have been outperforming guidance and estimates.

2010-02-08

BUY

NAL Oil & Gas Trust

NAE.UN-T

12.930

Yield should be safe as they have given guidance that after conversion will be a high dividend payout model.

2010-02-08

BUY

Arsenal Energy Inc.

AEI-T

0.890

Turnaround story. Oil weighted. Properties in North Dakota to chase the Bakken play in the US. Very reasonably priced.

2010-02-08

SELL

Delphi Energy Corp.

DEE-T

2.030

One of the cheapest gas stories. Priced to sell but doesn't think they are ready to sell yet.

2010-02-08

BUY on WEAKNESS

Cinch Energy Corp

CNH-T

1.610

Great land position with the Montney. Valuation is reasonable. Would buy on a 15%-20% dip.

2010-02-08

TOP PICK

Pengrowth Energy Trust

PGF.UN-T

10.300

Trading at a discount to its peers. 50/50 oil and gas. Have always had great assets but new management will now focus on cost control and more production. 8.2% yield on a 33% payout ratio.

2009-11-18

TOP PICK

BlackPearl Resources Inc

PXX-T

2.180

Has been re-capitalized with a new conservative management team and have the assets to bring them over 20,000-30,000 barrels a day. Not a cheap stock, but they don't have to do any acquisitions, just execute. Consider this a long-term hold.

2009-11-18

TOP PICK

Cirrus Energy Corp

CYR-X

2.910

In the Dutch North Sea where it is mostly gas but they get paid in linked oil prices.

2009-11-18

Comment

Canadian Oil Sands Trust

COS.UN-T

30.800

Can be volatile as it is a call on the volatility of oil. She is bullish on oil long-term. Also, ConocoPhillips (COP-N) indicated they would sell their 9% holdings in Syncrude and this company is interested. This would be a large amount of equity and debt they would have to issue.

2009-11-18

Comment

Galleon Energy Inc.

GO-T

5.050

Over promised and under delivered lately. Not much production growth over the past 2-3 years. Strong land base and a lot of opportunities.

2009-11-18

PARTIAL SELL

Vast Exploration Inc.

VST-X

0.550

This one is a lottery ticket. In Kurdistan where there is a lot of oil but will you get paid for it. If you own and gained, consider taking some profits.

2009-11-18

BUY

6.030

Oil production in Colombia. Their big field will be plateauing for 3 years and they have about $150 million in the bank. Expecting it to reach $6.50 when they start drilling the big wells.

2009-11-18

PAST TOP PICK

21.400

(A Top Pick June 30/09. Up 21%.) There is 3 years of visible production growth and it is very profitable.

2009-11-18

PAST TOP PICK

18.370

(A Top Pick June 30/09. Up 20.5%.) Sees lots of visible growth ahead for them.

2009-11-18

PAST TOP PICK

Crescent Point Energy Corp

71.980

(A Top Pick June 30/09. Up 17.3%.) This one should be a core holding in any portfolio. Exceedingly well run. Oil weighted and visible production growth from their Horizon oil Sands and Primrose thermal projects. Buy on weakness.

2009-11-18

BUY on WEAKNESS

CPG-T

39.300

Have a great resource play in the Bakken in Saskatchewan. Big inventory ahead of them. Valuation is starting to get high. 7% yield.

2009-11-18

BUY

Baytex Energy Trust

BTE.UN-T

26.630

Great way to play heavy oil. Have done a great job on their Seals project in the oil sands. Have a new play in North Dakota in the Bakken. Have to be careful of heavy oil differentials as they start to grow out going into the winters. 5.4% yield has a better chance of being increased rather than decreased.

2009-11-18

DON'T BUY

Falcon Oil & Gas

FO-X

0.150

Gas play in Hungary. There is gas there but can you get it out and can you do it economically? It is very deep. Exxon is a good partner but a slow one.

2009-11-18

SELL

Legacy Oil + Gas Inc.

LEG-T

1.600

Has a 6 for 1 reversal coming. Great management team but they have to grow into their multiple right now. Expensive.

2009-11-18

BUY

Delphi Energy Corp.

DEE-T

1.760

Tend to spend a lot of their capital, more than other companies, in the winter months. Have some good assets so will be able to grow their production and reserves. Expects a few more months of good performance..

2009-11-18

WAIT

Imperial Oil

IMO-T

41.300

Very good defensive stock if you think oil is going to go down. Their growth will be in their Kearl project in 2011-2012. Less than 1% yield.

2009-11-18

Comment

Canadian Superior Energy Inc

0.970

You have to be willing to stomach some risks. Debt is very high but is mostly termed out in 1st lien notes, 2nd lien notes and convertible debentures and first amount is not due until 2012. Very volatile.

2009-11-18

Comment

Petrominerales Ltd.

PMG-T

17.210

Thinly traded because Petrobank (PBG-T) owns the majority of shares. Performing very well but most of the catalysts are out of it.

2009-11-18

DON'T BUY

Twin Butte Energy

TBE-T

0.970

Past management stumbled and spent too much money with very little production. Very cheap.

2009-11-18

BUY

Talisman Energy

TLM-T

18.810

Undergoing a transformation from a very short reserve life with high finding/developing costs. Trying to become a shale player. A lot of management changes. If you hold for 3-4 years you will be rewarded.

2009-11-18

DON'T BUY

Alberta Oil Sands

AOS-X

0.300

Oil sands are very tough for any junior company. You need at least 10,000 barrels a day to make a profit. 30,000 glowing barrels would be $300 million, which would be very difficult to raise. Not sure the assets are good enough to be a takeover target.

2009-11-18

DON'T BUY

Terra Energy Corp.

TT-T

1.380

Has been around for years. Always had a great land base but always had trouble delivering so could be range bound for many years..

2009-11-18

Comment

Breaker Energy Ltd.

WAV-T

5.900

Has had a takeover offer by NAL (NAE.UN-T) and no other party has come out to compete.

2009-11-18

SELL

Oilsands Quest Inc.

BQI-A

1.190

Oil sands junior, which is very difficult. Also there is no known technology today that can be used to extract oil in their location. SAG won't work. Can't see it as a takeover target.

2009-11-18

SELL

Savanna Energy Services

SVY-T

6.200

One of the most expensive drillers because they have some fantastic rigs, which tend to drill shallow gas. However, the biggest driller of shallow gas is Encana (ECA-T), which will be splitting this off and won't be spending much money on it.

2009-11-18

BUY

Daylight Resources Trust

DAY-T

9.410

(Market Call Minute.) Will be converting in May and expect that they will get more shareholders.

2009-11-18

DON'T BUY

SNG-T (Dead)

0.620

(Market Call Minute.) Near bankruptcy.

2009-11-18

SELL

Ryland Oil Corp

RYD-X (Dead)

0.430

(Market Call Minute.) A land bank and a lot of people were buying it thinking that TriStar (TOG-T) was going to use it, but didn't.

2009-11-18

Comment

WesternZagros Resources Ltd.

WZR-X

0.720

(Market Call Minute.) A lottery ticket.

2009-11-18

HOLD

57.850

(Market Call Minute.) Will be splitting up Dec 7. Cenovus (CVE-T) has been a disappointment because of top line production declines.

2009-11-18

SELL

Altagas Ltd

ALA-T

18.910

(Market Call Minute.) There is a good chance there could be an equity issue and they will be cutting their distribution.

2009-11-18

TOP PICK

Canadian Oil Sands Trust

COS.UN-T

33.700

Longer term, she is a bull on oil. Shorter term, she believes they are going to increase their distribution by 20%-30%. Have a debt goal of $1.6 billion and are at $1.2 billion. With current oil prices they will be paying down their debt pretty quickly. 3% distribution.

2009-10-13

TOP PICK

4.800

International player in Colombia and is the hot international place to be. You can actually find and get paid for your oil very quickly here. A lot of cash on their balance sheet and will have an active drilling program next year. Will also be drilling in Peru next year for big oil finds.

2009-10-13

TOP PICK

Baffinland Iron Mines Corp.

63.820

Bullish on gas. Also when the company splits into Sunovas (oil sands portion) and Encana (Gas portion), there will be more value created. Sunovas will be worth about $35 and Encana about $42. Sunovas could be a takeover target.

2009-10-13

DON'T BUY

Harvest Energy Trust

HTE.UN-T

7.050

Their payout is not very high but their debt is. The debt will become due in about 1 year. They'll probably do another equity issue so she wouldn't be surprised if they cut the distribution.

2009-10-13

BUY

Bankers Petroleum

BNK-T

4.710

Split the Albanian heavy oil and the shale gas in the US into BNK Petroleum (BKX-T). Everyone wants to play the Albanian heavy oil because of a possible takeover.

2009-10-13

DON'T BUY

BIM-T

0.560

Iron ore prices are firming up but the problem with this company longer-term is that they have to raise billions of dollars. At the current price, that's a lot of dilution. Because it is so far north there are a lot of technological issues including building an icebreaker that has never been built before.

2009-10-13

DON'T BUY

Uranium One Inc.

UUU-T

3.070

Because of problems with the 4th largest uranium mine globally there has been a lift in uranium prices. This is a temporary thing for 3 or 4 months. Longer term, the problem with this stock is its location in Kazakhstan. There is a 20%-30% chance of them losing their license there. She doesn't like the political risks to read

2009-10-13

HOLD

Crescent Point Energy Corp

CPG-T

37.800

One of the best oil weighted trusts but starting to get into the fair value range. Has a great development inventory that they can grow their NAV every year. Have no plans to cut their distribution.

2009-10-13

DON'T BUY

Questerre Energy

QEC-T

2.480

Doesn't trade with natural gas prices but with exploration successes in the Utica Shale instead. Finds it too speculative. Shale plays take about 5 years to develop and she is not prepared to wait for that.

2009-10-13

BUY

Talisman Energy

TLM-T

19.650

Feels new management is more clearly focused and are following a good strategy of clearing assets that are non-core. Will probably take longer than the market expects that is on the right track.

2009-10-13

BUY

Pengrowth Energy Trust

PGF.UN-T

10.730

Likes the new management with their good track record. Believe they will cut costs, stabilize production and start making acquisitions. At a 33% payout ratio only, feels distributions are safe. They will also be increasing capital.

2009-10-13

WEAK BUY

Progress Energy Resources

1.000

Has a lot of financial torque because of high debt. Produce heavy oil, which is at a discount to West Texas. You have to be comfortable with the leverage.

2009-10-13

DON'T BUY

UTS Energy

UTS-T

1.920

The question is what they are going to do with Fort Hills. Waiting for Suncor (SU-T) to give their plans for this and they have until 2019 to put it on production. Very levered to oil sands.

2009-10-13

PAST TOP PICK

Petrominerales Ltd.

PMG-T

16.000

(A Top Pick Aug 14/09. Up 34.68%.) A Colombia player that will be very active over the next year. Still a Buy.

2009-10-13

PAST TOP PICK

Bonavista Energy Trust

BNP.UN-T

23.030

(A Top Pick Aug 14/09. Up 29.44%.) Just made an acquisition. Still a Buy.

2009-10-13

PAST TOP PICK

Suncor Energy Inc

SU-T

38.700

(A Top Pick Aug 14/09. Up 7.64%.) There will be a lot of international interest because this is the Canadian “go to” name. Still a Buy.

2009-10-13

BUY

Provident Energy Trust

PVE.UN-T

6.230

A different model than most companies because they have a lot of midstream assets as well as upstream businesses. The upstream business is OK but not that great but the midstream business is very good. There will be a chance of a distribution cut in 2011.

2009-10-13

TOP PICK

Talisman Energy

TLM-T

18.630

Most reasonably priced senior because in the past it was a value trap.New management is going after longer life cheaper barrels. Doesn't like cats extend but their play there is very small.

2009-09-30

TOP PICK

Pengrowth Energy Trust

PGF.UN-T

11.330

New leader has a good track record and is very operationally focused. Payout ratio of only 45% so believes the 11% yield is sustainable. Very good old legacy assets. Not expensive.

2009-09-30

TOP PICK

Enerplus Resources Fund

ERF.UN-T

24.500

Generally in the past it has traded at a substantial premium to its peers. Now trading at less than most trusts. Did an acquisition taking them into the Marcellus in Pennsylvania, which is the most economic gas play in North America. Can easily make money at $4 gas. Great visible growth.

2009-09-30

HOLD

PRQ-T

13.820

You can trade around this one but keep a core holding. Fantastic land base with 800,000 acres in the Montney. One of the wells tested 10 million a day. Currently a little ahead of itself.

2009-09-30

BUY

Legacy Oil + Gas Inc.

LEG-T

1.740

Oil weighted. Consolidating their shares on a 6:1 basis but you can buy now. Expensive but has a premier management team.

2009-09-30

Comment

Calfrac Well Services Ltd

62.000

Splitting into 2 companies, oil sands and natural gas. Likes the differentiation of assets. Speculation that their partner, ConocoPhillips (COP-N) will want to take the oil company out.

2009-09-30

DON'T BUY

Birchcliff Energy Ltd.

BIR-T

8.250

Debt to cash flow is almost 4X, which is very high. Have a great asset base but the stock is very expensive.

2009-09-30

BUY

CFW-T

19.000

With their 2 acquisitions, they are now the biggest pressure pumper in Canada. In the next cycle for gas, it looks like we'll be going into more shale gas, which is positive for them. If the market pulls back she doesn't think this will fall as much.

2009-09-30

WATCH

Crescent Point Energy Corp

1.100

Very leveraged to oil so you have to be a long-term bull on oil. Did a very good job on execution but they still have two build the next Algar so she will be watching this very closely. Debt is also an issue.

2009-09-30

Comment

Bankers Petroleum

BNK-T

4.730

Had a good run but there is still room. Patos-Marinza, their main asset, is a huge oil play of 5 billion barrels. All they have to do is move the recovery factor up, which can be done by more infill drilling, putting more capital in, steam flooding, etc. Great M & A target. If you own, you can take some money off the table and waited for a pause to come back in.

2009-09-30

Comment

Bronco Energy

BCF-T

0.800

Have a lot of barrels but they are difficult and uncooperative barrels because they get a lot of water in their production. It will be a challenge.

2009-09-30

BUY

Bonavista Energy Trust

BNP.UN-T

20.420

2/3 gas and 1/3 oil. Overpaying distribution a little. Can do so because management has exchangeable shares. Model after 2011 will be a combination of growth plus distribution but have not made percentages clear so she thinks the 10% distribution will be cut. However not expensive. New play at Holdly (?) is fantastic and will work at $4 gas.

2009-09-30

BUY

CPG-T

36.200

Crescent Point Energy (CPG-T) and TriStar (TOG-T) are both great plays in the Bakkens. Although Crescent Point is more expensive, she prefers this because you get paid more to wait and they have a lot more land in the core of the play. There's also more diversification and they are oily. 7.6% distribution.

2009-09-30

Comment

TriStar Oil & Gas

TOG-T

15.650

2009-09-30

BUY

Enbridge

ENB-T

41.570

Unusual for a utility stock to have a lot of growth. Building a lot of new pipelines out of the oil sands. 3.5% dividend. 95% of their income stream is pretty well guaranteed.

2009-09-30

BUY

Galleon Energy Inc.

GO-T

6.270

Gas weighted. One of the cheaper stocks because it has disappointed in the past. Very good, large land base. Great M&A target.

2009-09-30

PAST TOP PICK

20.200

(A Top Pick June 30/09. Up 15.3%.) Next year there will be substantial growth from their Montney project, which will still make money at $4 gas.

2009-09-30

PAST TOP PICK

19.100

(A Top Pick June 30/09. Up 25.2%.) Montney producer in Alberta and one of the best beneficiaries of this change in royalties in Alberta. Now chasing a new play, Blue Sky, which is giving natural gas liquids for a better price.

2009-09-30

PAST TOP PICK