STOCKCHASE

0.020

Thinks the US$ will go lower so commodities will go up. But there will be a rally if there is more trouble in the middle east or the economy rebounds in the US. If we have a very cold winter we may have some increase in Nat Gas prices, otherwise a retreat.

2009-10-20

BUY on WEAKNESS

Questerre Energy

QEC-T

2.680

52 week high today. Still in the pilot stage. Will be another year to get into development. If you own it, stay with it, no urgency to buy it. If there is a correction, then load up on it. Fabulous buy under $2

2009-10-20

WAIT

1.580

Nice run from the lows. This is a company that has two nice discoveries – UK and Romania.. Should have production Q1 2012. Could be a $5-6 stock in 2012. Could take profits at these levels. Buy below $1.25

2009-10-20

DON'T BUY

Penn West Energy Trust

PWT.UN-T

17.500

The trust is over soon. The company is gearing up for post-tax-protection. These companies are all in a transition phase and this is a risk. It’s going from an income investor to an equity investor. Many of these companies will have to cut back or eliminate distributions.

2009-10-20

HOLD

UTS Energy

UTS-T

2.240

Could be taken over any day. Management wants to get a fair price for the company. We know the asset is there.

2009-10-20

BUY

Talisman Energy

TLM-T

19.700

Has liked this company all along. Management team does a fabulous job, great assets globally. Don’t chase it here.

2009-10-20

PAST TOP PICK

1.620

(Top Pick Nov 14/08, Up %24.6) Would be a buyer here. Like the company. They have an oil business to grow while Nat Gas is suffering.

2009-10-20

PAST TOP PICK

1.760

(Top Pick Nov 14/08, Up %155) Drill well right now. Looking to find 500 Million bpd. There has been a lack of news recently. Buy on weakness below $1.50. A risky play for some.

2009-10-20

PAST TOP PICK

Vero Energy Inc.

VRO-T

4.750

(Top Pick Nov 14/08, Down 25%) Because of debt load they have not done as expected.

2009-10-20

Comment

0.020

Nat Gas: If you have a normal winter we will still have excess capacity at the end of it.

2009-10-20

SELL

4.970

Production numbers have not come on as quickly as expected. Production profile is down, not up, which is what you want to see. It is trading at an expensive price. Market s looking at reserves in the ground and is doing horizontal drilling. You want to take some profits.

2009-10-20

HOLD

Canadian Oil Sands Trust

COS.UN-T

33.320

Getting back near its highs. If you have 2 to 3 years, definitely hold it and wait for weakness to buy more, otherwise there is not much more upside.

2009-10-20

DON'T BUY

Vast Exploration Inc.

VST-X

0.670

Because of aggressive cash burns has raised a lot of equity and he is not keen on owning a company that does this.

2009-10-20

BUY on WEAKNESS

39.870

Well managed. You may see stock under $30 if you are pessimistic on oil.

2009-10-20

BUY

Sea Dragon Energy Inc.

SDX-X

0.280

Focused in Egypt. Potentially exploration upside. Currently raising money and that is holding the stock back. As they take operatorships in Egypt that they can run themselves, we will all be happy investors.

2009-10-20

BUY

Paramount Resources

POU-T

14.800

Fabulous run. Part of reason is (1) the gas price recovery, (2) the balance sheet is very strong and (3) they own a large slug of land in North Dakota where some of the initial well information is expected very shortly, which will have a lot of upside potential.

2009-10-20

HOLD

Husky Energy

HSE-T

32.770

Has not responded, but has been a descent return. But will stay 2 or 3 dollars either side until we see a sustainable recovery in the economy and we see something happen in Nat Gas. This is a nice way to get into the patch for the conservative investor. Reasonable dividend 3.6%. Not likely to be taken over.

2009-10-20

TOP PICK

1.620

Has a very dominant core in west Alberta. There is vertical as well as horizontal potential. They’ve started going after the horizontal natural gas. Just did a number of acquisitions to try to get control of that area. By next year they should be doing about 8,000 bue’s a day. They estimate $.35 in cash flow.

2009-10-20

TOP PICK

5.120

They are fully valued today. Biggest upside is in Peru. They are going to drill next year in Q2/Q3 next year. It is light and medium gravity oil. If they have any success we would be looking at a double-digit target.

2009-10-20

TOP PICK

Canadian Overseas Petroleum

90.560

There are a number of things they are going to drill on the upside. The big upside is that they are the operator of the play in Kurdistan. There will be a lot of cash flow coming out of India that they can then go and drill 7 or 8 high impact plays. If there is any success, then this stock goes higher.

2009-10-20

WAIT

XOP-X

0.650

Had a good run. He is going after some of the assets that were in Oil Exco. In the process of raising money. Until we see the format of the financing, wait before being a buyer. Will play out I the next few months.

2009-10-20

TOP PICK

1.050

(A Top Pick July 25/08. Down 59.92%.) Have become very careful with their debt load. Production is right where he wants them to be. Cash flow has improved because of hedging. Increased production in Q2 versus Q1. Acquiring Fairmount Energy (FMT-TX). By below $1.

2009-08-21

TOP PICK

Galleon Energy Inc.

GO-T

4.350

Has a core area in the Peace River arch of about 1 million acres. Mostly natural gas but a good oil weighting. Balance sheet is in good shape. Think they will do over $1 in cash flow this year. BV is $8.45. Think they will be increasing production by the 4th quarter. (Doesn't own but has other relations with the firm.)

2009-08-21

TOP PICK

Canadian Superior Energy Inc

4.350

Colombian basin. Had some problems recently with a tax on the pipeline system. Costayaco play has continued to work out for them. Should do about $.80 in cash flow. As upside in other areas of Colombia and will be doing some high impact exploration drilling. Also have upside in Peru. Pristine balance sheet.

2009-08-21

PAST TOP PICK

SNG-T (Dead)

0.730

(A Top Pick July 25/08. Down 79.53%.) Massive natural gas discovery in Trinidad. Management concerns and is expecting changes/go forward strategies on Sept 9 so wait for guidance. (Doesn't own but has other relations with the firm.)

2009-08-21

PAST TOP PICK

72.910

(A Top Pick July 25/08. Down 8.73%.) The D6 play in offshore India is on. Ramping up of the volumes will occur between now and the end of the year. Have a fixed contract for gas at $4.20. Look for an entry point anywhere below $70. (Doesn't own but has other relations with the firm.)

2009-08-21

Comment

0.020

Natural Gas. Did what he expected by dropping to the $2.95 area. US inventories are at about 3.2 TCF and maximum capacity is about 3.7. Plugging in the average of 5 years storage between now and end of September, it will be full either the last week of September or the first week of October. Withdrawal does not start until November 1st so there may be a few weeks where there is no place to store, which might have prices go down to very low levels such as $1 or $1.50.

2009-08-21

Comment

0.020

Oil. There is still 100 million barrels more in storage. Demand did not go up and once you get past Labour Day gasoline demand will fall off again so there will be too much crude. OPEC is cheating at 75% compliance versus 80% a couple months ago. Expecting $10-$15, maybe $20 of downside in the S&P TSX energy index. When the correction comes you want to be ready to buy the bargains.

2009-08-21

Comment

Vast Exploration Inc.

VST-X

0.475

In Kurdistan with Niko Resources (NKO-T) as their main partner. Niko is talking about drilling in either Q1 or Q2 of 2010. Prefers to play this through Niko or WesternZagros (WZR-X).

2009-08-21

BUY on WEAKNESS

Crew Energy Inc.

CR-T

5.740

Acquired Gentry Resources last year, which gave them more oil bases in the Princess area. Using some of the new horizontal techniques. Recently did a financing to pay down debt along with their cash flows. Should be a survivor. Could potentially drop below $5.

2009-08-21

BUY on WEAKNESS

1.810

If there is an oil price correction as expected you might see the stock below $1.30. If the stock has not corrected by end of September, early October then you want to be a buyer

2009-08-21

HOLD

Paramount Resources

POU-T

8.300

Natural gas. Good operators and great land spread in Western Canada. Very strong balance sheet. On a 3 to 5 year time horizon he thinks the stock is potentially a double.

2009-08-21

BUY on WEAKNESS

Talisman Energy

TLM-T

17.900

Good management and good assets. Below $15 would be a great entry point.

2009-08-21

BUY

Trans Canada Corp

TRP-T

31.990

Bringing on an oil pipeline system into the US, which will bring a lot of upside growth. Once natural gas prices recover in the next couple of years, they will be involved in any expansion in Western Canada.

2009-08-21

BUY on WEAKNESS

Sea Dragon Energy Inc.

SDX-X

0.175

New management changes. Just announced their first deal in Egypt with Premier Oil Overseas taking on wells that can do a couple of thousand barrels a day. They will take a 10% interest. Looking for more deals and he is hoping they will be up to do that. Stock is at about $.17 and they have about $0.08 in cash.

2009-08-21

BUY on WEAKNESS

3.740

Heavy oil project in Albania. Good management. Having good success with some of their horizontal wells that can do 150 to 160 BOEs a day but generated only $0.03 in cash flow or $0.12 annualized. Most companies trade at 4 or 5 times cash flow so trading way above what they should be.$2.80 or lower would be his entry point.

2009-08-21

DON'T BUY

Compton Petroleum

CMT-T

1.110

A couple of problems. 1) In the gas business and 2) have a very high debt load. New management is focusing on cutting costs. Speculative. Consider selling for tax losses.

2009-08-21

BUY on WEAKNESS

35.530

Has done very well because of its leverage to oil prices. If there is a correction in oil prices, he could see this dropping to below $30.

2009-08-21

Comment

Vermilion Energy Trust

VET.UN-T

30.040

Good management. Trying to sell their Libyan assets.

2009-08-21

BUY on WEAKNESS

Canadian Natural Rsrcs

CNQ-T

65.000

Fabulous company. Horizon is now on and is ramping up. Using the cash flow to pay down debt. Would be a fabulous by $55-$60.

2009-08-21

Comment

0.020

Worst of the recession is behind us, but US inventories are way too high. Chance for a significant correction. Oil could go to $40-42.

2009-05-01

BUY on WEAKNESS

1.050

Despite a weak commodity market will be able to bring on new production. Did a good job in hedging. Will start performing in 3’rd and 4’th quarter.

2009-05-01

BUY on WEAKNESS

Precision Drilling

PD-T

5.550

We are in the spring break up when demand is at its lowest level. No reason to be chasing the stock right here.

2009-05-01

HOLD

32.370

PCA is great acquisition for Suncor. 95% chance of it going forward. They will sell off some of the non-core assets. They are high beta to the price of oil.

2009-05-01

HOLD

TriStar Oil & Gas

TOG-T

11.000

Could be a $1 or $2 correction in this one.

2009-05-01

WAIT

1.730

He likes this one. They don’t make much at these oil prices. Probably wont do anything short term on the up side until oil increases. Has s good balance sheet.

2009-05-01

TOP PICK

CASH

0.000

Sitting in 20-30%. Could be 20-40% cuts in many stocks. Defensive Strategy.

2009-05-01

TOP PICK

62.190

Ramp up of production announced a while ago. Good price, sheltered from tax. Already working in projects in other countries. Major risk of getting project on line is over. Buy after a correction in oil prices.

2009-05-01

BUY on WEAKNESS

Talisman Energy

TLM-T

15.910

Had very good success in Asia. Likes story longer term. Have significant upside potential in current projects

2009-05-01

WAIT

0.970

Has two very big discoveries. Romanian project will start production in 2011, as will UK project. He is in the process of reviewing this stock. Target used to be $2-$3.

2009-05-01

TOP PICK

2.980

Liked it a long time. Great success in Columbia. Sitting on lots of cash, no debt. Likes current cash flow. Home run potential in Peru. Biggest risk would be country risk if it became so in Columbia. Buy after correction in oil prices.

2009-05-01

PAST TOP PICK

Oilexco Inc

OIL-X

0.145

(Top Pick Apr 4/08 Down 99.20%) Got into a debt problem. Company got blindsided by the storm. Management is trying to resurrect company. If Chrysler can come out of bankruptcy, then so can Oilexco.

2009-05-01

PAST TOP PICK

62.190

(Top Pick Apr 4/08 Down 25.44%) Is still a top pick.

2009-05-01

PAST TOP PICK

Profound Energy Inc.

PFX-T

1.290

(Top Pick Apr 4/08 Down 64.75%) Took profits after it was taken over.

2009-05-01

TOP PICK

63.000

(A Top Pick April 4/08. Down 22.4%.) Have a fabulous discovery on the east coast of India. Have brought it into production. D6 is going to ramp up to 300-400 million a day. Will be generating $400-$500 million of free cash flow. Have upside exploration potential in Madagascar, Pakistan, Kurdistan and Indonesia in 2010.

2009-04-06

TOP PICK

3.460

Has a lovely play in Columbia (Costayaco) and are ramping up production. Currently at about 12,000 BOE's a day and will double that later this year. Very cheap. Thinks it will do $.77 in cash flow this year. No debt and $177 million in cash.

2009-04-06

TOP PICK

Galleon Energy Inc.

GO-T

4.130

About 35% oil/liquids and 65% natural gas. Doing about 18,000 BOEs a day. NAV of about $13.85 and $9 plus in BV. $10.75 target when commodity prices improve. Have 1 million gross acres in the Monte play. Great management team.

2009-04-06

Comment

0.020

Oil: Next 3 months is the shoulder season when prices usually melt down. He thinks they could go back to the $40 range into the summer driving season. If there is improvement in the economy, it could be back in the $60-$70 range in the summer. It’ll back off again in the fall. Wild card is the 2009/2010 winter.

2009-04-06

PAST TOP PICK

Oilexco Inc

OIL-X

0.145

(A Top Pick April 4/08. Down 99.2%.) Fabulous exploration team, which is still very keen on doing something in the North Sea. Doesn't know what the endgame is going to be.

2009-04-06

PAST TOP PICK

Profound Energy Inc.

PFX-T

1.280

(A Top Pick April 4/08. Down 64.5%.) Being acquired by Paramount Trust (PMT.UN-T) so he sold his holdings.

2009-04-06

BUY on WEAKNESS

29.810

Thinks oil will back off over the next 2 to 3 months. Try to buy in the mid-$20. Thanks the acquisition of Petrocan (PCA-T) is a great one.

2009-04-06

SPECULATIVE BUY

0.680

$130US million cash and no debt. Large land block in Kurdistan. Drilled 1st well and pressures were so high the mud systems couldn't handle and couldn't get a conclusive test. Will go back and try again. Starting to drill a 2nd well end of April/early May. Talisman (TLM-T) is their partner. Home run potential. Will spend $30 million on the well. 60% they pay for with the rest from Talisman. If they hit he has a target of $3.70. High risk.

2009-04-06

Comment

TriStar Oil & Gas

TOG-T

9.570

If you are willing to take a 2 to 3 year time horizon this is a company with a great basin in the Bakkens. They know what they're doing and have good cost controls.

2009-04-06

WAIT

1.820

Producing about 6300 BOEs a day in Albania. Working on old oil fields with very low recovery using modern technology. Low gravity crudes so at $40 oil they don't make any money. At $50 they will and make a little bit. At $75 they make a lot.

2009-04-06

DON'T BUY

Corridor Resources Inc

CDH-T

1.890

Shale gas play. Have some great results. Natural gas price drop took it from being very profitable to marginally profitable (or not) at $3 gas. He doesn't see a positive scenario for natural gas until the winter of 09/10.

2009-04-06

DON'T BUY

Precision Drilling

PD-T

4.250

Biggest driller in Canada, but the utilization of this industry is down to very low levels. Has quite a debt load. Stock will languish until there is a recovery in gas prices. Will be a survivor.

2009-04-06

DON'T BUY

Trinidad Drilling

TDG-T

2.940

Utilization of the drilling industry is down to very low levels. Stock will languish until there is a recovery in gas prices. Will be a survivor.

2009-04-06

Comment

Connacher Oil and Gas

CLL-T

0.940

First module of their production in oil sands belt area is now in operation. Until there are much higher commodity prices, $40/$50 oil prices does not justify expansion of the modules. Have to get back to the $70/$80 range. If you are willing to make the bet on the higher prices, it has a lot of upside potential to it.

2009-04-06

DON'T BUY

0.920

There are a lot of small players in the Breagh field and they are trying to bring in either a larger energy producer or a large utility to be a buyer of the natural gas on this play. 70% is for sale. Probability is that production will come on in 2011 or 2012. Also have a play in Romania that Melrose (?) is running for them. Not doing any drilling in the near term.

2009-04-06

Comment

Arc Energy Trust

AET.UN-T

14.780

Considered as one of the best in the industry on the natural gas side. Good management, asset plays and cost structure. Until natural gas prices recover, the stock will probably languish. If you have a long-term time horizon and if we are in a $8 to $10 price environment, the stock will probably be up 10 points from here.

2009-04-06

Comment

Perpetual Energy

PMT-T

3.480

(Market Call Minute.) A gassy related trust. If you have a patient long-term time horizon, buy.

2009-04-06

HOLD

Questerre Energy

QEC-T

1.240

(Market Call Minute.) There will be more drilling occurring and as the news of the drilling comes out, there will probably be a better price on it.

2009-04-06

SELL

Imperial Oil

IMO-T

47.430

(Market Call Minute.) Not a fan because they are not growing their production.

2009-04-06

BUY

0.830

(Market Call Minute.) Likes the story and the management and the reserves.

2009-04-06

BUY

Vero Energy Inc.

VRO-T

3.600

(Market Call Minute.) Good management. In a holding pattern now. Cut back their drilling because of the weak commodity prices.

2009-04-06

BUY on WEAKNESS

Encana Corp

ECA-T

54.880

(Market Call Minute.) A Hold at this point and a Buy on weakness.

2009-04-06

BUY on WEAKNESS

Nexen Inc

NXY-T

23.130

(Market Call Minute.)

2009-04-06

BUY

Sea Dragon Energy Inc.

SDX-X

0.130

(Market Call Minute.) Very small company. Working on new deals in Egypt. Very early in the story. This is one you want to buy and put away. Multiyear story.

2009-04-06

TOP PICK

1.300

87% natural gas. Just reported 3rd quarter of 6400 BOE's a day and are now at 7000. Did $0.24 in the quarter ($0.96 annual cash flow). Expect them to grow to 8000 next year, which could create cash flow of $1.20. NAV is over three dollars a share. About $90 million of debt on $140 million line. Cash flow this year might be $70 million.

2008-11-14

TOP PICK

0.690

Probably the highest risk story of his 3 Top Picks but there are some downside protections. Sitting on cash of over $1 a share. With Talisman (T-T) as a partner they are drilling a well in Kurdistan. Kurdistan from an exploration point of view is fabulous with a lot of oil to be found there.

2008-11-14

TOP PICK

Vero Energy Inc.

VRO-T

6.300

One of the lowest cost structures for natural gas in the Western Hemisphere. Results of 8,100 BOE’s a day beating his expectations by 800. Making an acquisition which could increase from 8,400 to 8,800. Looking for over 9000 next year. Trades at 2 X cash flow. Strong balance sheet.

2008-11-14

Comment

0.020

Oil: What is needed cannot be replaced at $55-$56 a barrel. It should be at about $80 just before winter. Once you get into winter, physical demand rises by about 2 million barrels a day more than in the fall. We do not have that oil and OPEC is cutting back. Thinks oil has bottomed and will be in the $80 range by Jan/Feb and north of $100 by the 4th quarter.

2008-11-14

Comment

0.020

Natural Gas: Storage is OK now if we have an average winter. If it is colder than normal, natural gas should recover in Jan/Feb. Could be at $8.00.

2008-11-14

PAST TOP PICK

50.340

(A Top Pick Sept 11/07. Down 43%.) Just reported and production was lower than he thought. Thought they would be ramping up the oil production 2 quarters ago but has been delayed to the end of the year. Very cheap at these levels.

2008-11-14

PAST TOP PICK

Oilexco Inc

OIL-X

3.320

(A Top Pick Sept 11/07. Down 75%.) Announced results for the 3rd quarter and did on average about 12,000. Had maintenance on one of their platforms. 14,000 BOE's a day in July, 0 BOE’s in August and in September came on with about 20,000. Have to come up with $100 million.

2008-11-14

PAST TOP PICK

Solana Resources Ltd.

SOR-X

2.670

(A Top Pick Sept 11/07. Up 3%.) Merging with Gran Tierra (GTE-T). Sold his holdings at a higher profit.

2008-11-14

BUY

Galleon Energy Inc.

GO-T

4.850

Just reported 17,200 BOE’s a day in the 3rd quarter. Up from 13,700 the year before. Announced cash flow $.80 vs. $.54, so that's $3.20 annualized cash flow, making this an inexpensive stock. 1 X 1 debt to cash flow. Good line of credit. 1 million net acres in a core area of Callay Dawson (?) in Alberta. Very cheap.

2008-11-14

Comment

0.650

Enormous drilling success in offshore Romania and the UK North Sea. The problem is, they have found a fabulous amount of reserves but how do they get them out of the ground without spending a ton of money. Have enough cash to survive until the markets open up and they can get enough cash to complete the projects.

2008-11-14

BUY

1.050

Albania oil play. Company just reported that they will live within their cash flow. Did 5,880 barrels of oil, up from 4,789 the year before. Running rate is about $.32 in cash flow so is trading at about 3 X cash flow. Looking to more than double production in the next 2 years. Cheap.

2008-11-14

Comment

23.340

All tar sands projects are like a beta on the price of oil. If oil price drops, they get hit more than the price decline but when it rises they go up even faster. If you are an optimist and believe oil will reach $80, this is a Buy. North of $100 it is a table pounding Buy.

2008-11-14

Comment

TriStar Oil & Gas

TOG-T

10.560

Excellent management team. Could be a takeout target by one of the other players in the Bakkens project.

2008-11-14

Comment

Encana Corp

ECA-T

54.750

If you are willing to take an 18-month time horizon, this stock is at a 2 for 1 sale. He feels natural gas prices will move higher to the $8 range.

2008-11-14

Comment

Nexen Inc

NXY-T

18.300

Fabulous assets in Canada, Gulf of Mexico, Buzzard field and the UK and part of the new tar sands project Opti. Stock is very cheap. The problem is the commodity. With $80 oil you might see $25.

2008-11-14

Comment