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| Joseph Schachter of Schachter Asset Management |
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| BUY on WEAKNESS | Canadian Natural Rsrcs | CNQ-T | 41.350 | One of his favourites in large caps. Have done a great job until their problems with Horizon and getting that on stream is going to take a bit of time. There are 2 parts to the premium. 1) Middle east because of supply coming off and 2) weaker US$ issue. Weaker oil would bring the stock down so if you see it in the Mid $30's range would be a fabulous buy. | 2011-05-10 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Niko Resources | NKO-T | 75.350 | (A Top Pick Feb 22/11. Down 11.44%.) In negotiations with the Indian government for higher gas prices. Meanwhile stopped all exploration. Involved in a lot of drilling and you could get good news any day. | 2011-05-10 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Nexen Inc | NXY-T | 22.910 | Has fallen into little holes on the ground between the Long Lake situation and and the UK tax regime. Also Yemen is not a stable country to do business in. If oil drops below $90 you may get a chance to buy this below $20. Have good assets. Bringing on new projects on shore in the UK. Prefers Canadian Natural Rsrcs (CNQ-T), Talisman (TLM-T) and Encana (ECA-T). | 2011-05-10 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Delphi Energy Corp. | DEE-T | 2.650 | (A Top Pick Feb 22/11. Up 17.33%.) | 2011-05-10 | ||
| SELL ON STRENGTH | Sterling Resources | SLG-X | 2.700 | Half value is in Romania and half is in UK North Sea. Problems getting go-aheads from Romanian government and going into arbitration, which will take a long time. Doesn't have go-ahead on the Brea field plus the last drill on Cladhan wasn't very good.. AGM is next week and hopes to hear good news. $1.50 on the downside if they don't get UK going and maybe $3.50 upside. | 2011-05-10 | ||
| TOP PICK | Galleon Energy Inc. | GO-T | 3.640 | Doing 13,500-14,000 BOE's a day and expected to average 14,000 a day. Got into the doghouse when involved with the Pasqua and Cardium. Had to sell assets. Doing 37%-38% oil and liquids which is over 50% of revenues. Fabulous value story with BV of $7.97. Has an NAV of $5.48 at the end of 2010. Expecting $1.50 annualized cash flow at the end of 2011.Very cheap. | 2011-05-10 | ||
| TOP PICK | Vero Energy Inc. | VRO-T | 6.010 | Fabulous winter drilling season. Were doing 9,000 BOE's a day but are now doing 12,000. Expecting over 10,000 this year. His NAV is $8.23 and looking for a cash flow of about $2 run rate. | 2011-05-10 | ||
| Comment | Questerre Energy | QEC-T | 1.100 | Shale gas Montreal-Quebec City corridor. Very good partner in Talisman (TLM-T), who is also the operator. They know procedures that have to be done but farmers are nervous and water tables are important so there has to be education at the local level and they've done a very good job. Market doesn't know when they are going to get a window go-ahead. | 2011-05-10 | ||
| BUY | Zargon Oil & Gas Ltd | ZAR-T | 22.050 | Very good management. Good operating costs. Good mixture between the 2 commodities. Good yield of almost 8%. | 2011-05-10 | ||
| TOP PICK | WesternZagros Resources Ltd. | WZR-X | 0.570 | (A Top Pick Feb 22/11. Up 4%.) Kurdistan. In the process of finishing a well in the next week or two. Talisman is a partner and will be bringing a rig to drill in the 4th quarter. Have $0.35-$0.40 of cash. Look for news in the next couple of weeks. | 2011-05-10 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Sea Dragon Energy Inc. | SDX-X | 0.195 | Egyptian oil, Sees $0.25 of value between on their 1,200 BOE's a day production. Market is leaving the story alone because of the Egypt thing. They know their way around Egypt, Will be drilling high impact wells again in the 4th quarter. Likes the story. Mid-teens to the $0.20 range is a good buy. | 2011-05-10 | ||
| Comment | Canadian Overseas Petroleum | XOP-X | 0.570 | Raised $130 million last year. Will be drilling 5 or 6 combination exploration/appraisal wells in UK North Sea before year end. Also looking at deals offshore west Africa and Brazil. Good team. High risk situation but there is downside support. | 2011-05-10 | ||
| Comment | Canadian Natural Rsrcs | CNQ-T | 42.550 | Had a few problems with the Horizon’s upgrader and environmental issues. Likes the story. If he is right and there is a cool off on the price of oil, there will probably be some weakness from here. If you are buying wait to see if it goes into the mid-$30’s. If you own, Hold. | 2011-04-14 | ||
| HOLD | Canadian Oil Sands | COS-T | 31.530 | Tar sands stories have done beautifully. If you own, stay with it. | 2011-04-14 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Inter Pipeline Fund | IPL.UN-T | 15.660 | Nice conservative play with good yields. Company has been growing their assets so as they grow their assets they have more cash flow, which they pay out to their investors. Can be some volatility. | 2011-04-14 | ||
| TOP PICK | Niko Resources | NKO-T | 86.520 | (A Top Pick Feb 22/11. Up 2.85%.) India and Indonesia. Have a lot of high impact exploration. Billions of barrels of potential to be drilled up in the next 18 months. | 2011-04-14 | ||
| Comment | Precision Drilling | PD-T | 13.670 | The leading and largest of the drilling companies. Have a great and new fleet. Currently trying to pay down their debt. Next, cash flow might go towards new rigs, etc. They will never be a high dividend paying security. | 2011-04-14 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Pembina Pipeline Corp | PPL-T | 22.660 | Dividend on the record of the company has been fabulous. Paid out $179 million in 2007, $198 million in 2008, $233 million in 2009 and over $240 million in 2010. Some volatility to the stock price but any time the stock gives you an opportunity, add to your portfolio. | 2011-04-14 | ||
| Comment | Suncor Energy Inc | SU-T | 42.110 | Suncor (SU-T) or Cdn Ntrl Res (CNQ-T)? Both have tar sands and conventional oil involvement. This one also has retail distribution plus some international assets. Refining and marketing have not been very good until now. Likes CNQ mix of assets better but this one would be better for the more conservative investor. CNQ would be for the investor looking for growth. (See comments under CNQ)) | 2011-04-14 | ||
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| Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Oil. Tunisia had very little production so it’s not an issue but Libya was producing about 1.8 million and exporting about 1.6 million barrels of light crude. Europe refineries were configured to handle that light crude. Losing that required Saudi and others to create product that would be applicable to those refineries. Given the shortage people were prepared to pay a premium. What’s next? Yemen and Syria each export a couple hundred thousand barrels a day. What happens if something happens to Saudi and that’s what the market is starting to price in. If it all settles down, we’ll be back to the $70-$80 oil but it will take a long time. | 2011-04-14 | ||
| Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Natural Gas. Bullish. In Oct/Nov at $3.20 of the NYMX contract he felt it was way under the value that was needed economically. Since then he has seen the US production is beginning to slow down. Seeing conventional going down and shale production, that was ramped up massively in 2010, is beginning to peak. When we get into the air conditioning season, he thinks the price moves up. | 2011-04-14 | ||
| TOP PICK | Delphi Energy Corp. | DEE-T | 2.560 | (A Top Pick Feb 22/11. Up 13.78%.) Still likes. Continued success with the drill bit. Mix is moving more and more towards liquids, which is a higher value product. Concentrated land spread and low costs. | 2011-04-14 | ||
| SELL | Sterling Resources | SLG-X | 4.800 | Had assets in both onshore and offshore in Romania and offshore in the UK North Sea. Fabulous natural gas discoveries in both places. Also an oil discovery that they are doing some delineation work on now. Target is $5, close to the current price. Waiting over a year for government approval on both offshore sites. This bothers him. Sold his holdings. | 2011-04-14 | ||
| BUY | Galleon Energy Inc. | GO-T | 3.740 | Likes this one. Has a $5.50 target. Sees an NAV of $5.48. Expecting them to do 14,400 BOE’s a day this year. About 34% of oil and liquids, which will be cash flowing them $122 million. Debt about $136 million. Just over 1:1 debt to cash flow ratio. Could see volumes growing up to 15,000 BOE’s a day by year-end. | 2011-04-14 | ||
| BUY | Vero Energy Inc. | VRO-T | 6.000 | Great company. Drilled 11 wells in the first quarter and production has moved up to 11,000 BOE’s a day from 9,000 a year ago. Moving into more liquids rich. 20% oil and liquids in 2009 and will move this to 30% by year-end. $9.25 target. Any time you see any weakness, you Buy and put away. | 2011-04-14 | ||
| SELL | Bankers Petroleum | BNK-T | 8.630 | Been bearish on this one for a long time. Have done a good job in Albania developing the resource but have had enthusiastic and high expectations on how well they are going to do. Way behind on their numbers. His target is $6.25. | 2011-04-14 | ||
| SELL | Gran Tierra Energy Inc. | GTE-T | 6.890 | In Colombia, Peru, Brazil and Argentina. Big asset that is producing for them now is the oil asset in Colombia. Sees a $5 hard value but the market is paying over $3 for the exploration potential and recently they’ve announced a number of D&A (Dry and Abandoned) If it dropped a couple of bucks he would take a more constructive view. | 2011-04-14 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Trinidad Drilling Ltd | TDG-T | 9.390 | All the drillers have done very well. Part of it is the horizontal drilling in the Bakken, Monte, Cardium or Encana plays. Lots of activity going on internationally too. Service industries are ones you want to own in your portfolio. Very well run company. | 2011-04-14 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Vast Exploration Inc. | VST-X | 0.430 | Put out a press release based on Niko Resources (NKO-T) drilling in Kurdistan. They are at 3,420 meters and are going to 4,200, which will take a couple more months to get there. Have already had about 200 meters of pay, which is pretty good and are now going to the deeper zones. Upside could be billions of barrels. He prefers to own the play through Niko, which gives him a much wider scope of global areas. Too much risk. (See Top Picks) | 2011-04-14 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | WesternZagros Resources Ltd. | WZR-X | 0.510 | (A Top Pick Feb 22/11. Up 2%.) In the process of drilling an important well, Sarqala in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Should get to the total depth in about 2 weeks. Recently raised $40 million so the balance sheet has got firepower for the drilling. This will be followed by other wells. Have 4 high impact plays. Higher risk but rewards are worth it. | 2011-04-14 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Ithaca Energy Inc. | IAE-T | 2.460 | UK has recently raised taxes and the stock got hit. Has some very good plays in the North Sea and their funding is in good shape. If you own, stay with it and Buy on weakness. | 2011-04-14 | ||
| BUY | Sea Dragon Energy Inc. | SDX-X | 0.210 | Likes this one a lot. Was much higher a year ago when they were drilling the Colombo play. Since then they have drilled one more high impact well that turned out dry and that is when the stock dropped. They will be drilling another high impact well in the 4th quarter, which is close to El Morocco and has a higher probability of success. Probably $0.25 of hard value (NAV) in their current production they are doing now. You’ll have to be patient. You need a 3 to 4 year time horizon. | 2011-04-14 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Cenovus Energy | CVE-T | 36.070 | Stocks done really, really well. If you own, stay with it. New buyers should wait for a bit of weakness. | 2011-04-14 | ||
| Comment | Forent Energy | FEN-X | 0.200 | Have assets in western Canada that are heavy oil. Doing 300-400 BOE’s a day. Very small company. Will continue to try and grow the heavy oil. What is exciting is that they have a very large land spread in Nova Scotia that has potential for shale natural gas. This is their home run potential. He is waiting to see more activity. Risky. | 2011-04-14 | ||
| TOP PICK | Orion Oil & Gas | OIP-T (Dead) | 0.970 | Western Canada with 2 main areas. One is the Cabob area where they are doing liquids rich natural gas and are also doing oil in Rugwater. (?) About 52% oils and liquids. Has $1.60 target. Bank debt is very low relative to their line of credit. Looking for a new 3rd core area. Doing about 6,000 BOE’s a day and cash flowing about 80. A company that you let grow by finding new projects. | 2011-04-14 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Canadian Natural Rsrcs | CNQ-T | 47.710 | Oil prices have been very positive for them and their balance sheet is improving. Cash flow is very strong. This is one you want to own for the long term. Will potentially go over the 2008 highs in the next year or two. | 2011-02-22 | ||
| TOP PICK | Niko Resources | NKO-T | 84.180 | (A Top Pick Oct 20/09. Down 7.67%.) Big success in India and BP is farming in on their partner Reliance Industries. Also have a massive land spread in Indonesia with high impact drilling, big boy territory. Cash that is coming ion from their success in India is being used with their technology. $150 target. | 2011-02-22 | ||
| Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Middle East. These countries need the revenues, such as tourism. Getting a decision on how governments will go on, on a going forward basis, needs to be done fairly quickly. The problem is that 50% of the population in these countries is under 25 years of age and most are unemployed. This is what caused them to go to the streets. Governments were subsidizing the staples such as food and energy. Once they removed the subsidies or raised prices, you had cost pressures at the same time as a very bleak job picture. Thinks there will be a positive resolution and there will be a job market again. There has been no problem in the area where oil is being produced. | 2011-02-22 | ||
| TOP PICK | Delphi Energy Corp. | DEE-T | 2.260 | (A Top Pick Oct 20/09. Up 36.42%.) Moving from just being a natural gas producer and will be 30% oils and liquids by the end of 2011. Operating costs are one of the lowest. Land spread is in the hottest area where concentration by the big boys will happen. Looking for $4, maybe $5 in 18 months. | 2011-02-22 | ||
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| WATCH | Sterling Resources | SLG-X | 4.230 | Starting to drill Grian gas well. Also working on Cladhan where they will do 3 horizontal legs. 2 are into the reserves (where they had got 100 million barrels of reserve for 3P) to see if there is more. 3rd will be going into the Fan (?) system, which will potentially add 50 million barrels. Own 30% of the play. His $5 target is not far away and he would like to see a massive increase of reserves in Cladhan as well as government approvals of North Sea projects. Sold his holdings. | 2011-02-22 | ||
| HOLD | Vero Energy Inc. | VRO-T | 6.370 | Has been very successful in the Cardium play recently. 12-month target of $9.25. Sees them doing 10,000 BOEs plus next year. Cash flowing $1.60 so a reasonably cheap number. Balance sheet is in good shape. 20% liquid in 2009 but should be 30% by the end of the year which should give 50% of revenues for oil and liquids. | 2011-02-22 | ||
| SELL | Bankers Petroleum | BNK-T | 9.230 | Located in Albania, which is having disruptions between political parties. Very expensive on a flowing BOE basis. A massive amount of reserves there. Should have been doing 20,000 BOEs a day now so stock is over fair value. | 2011-02-22 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Questerre Energy | QEC-T | 1.530 | Waiting to see how the environmental rules will be resolved and the land tenure access. Won’t be any activity for the next quarter or two. There is an economic advantage to go ahead with this. We know there is gas there and that Talisman (TLM-T), the operator, is supportive of the project. Stock is cheap but it may drift for the next couple of months. Potentially worth $2 to $3 in 2012. | 2011-02-22 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Gran Tierra Energy Inc. | GTE-T | 8.680 | (A Top Pick Oct 20/09. Up 70.9%.) | 2011-02-22 | ||
| Comment | Vast Exploration Inc. | VST-X | 0.530 | Own 40% of an elephant project in Kurdistan with potential of hundreds of millions to billions of barrels. Multi-zoned in virgin territory. Partnered with Niko Resources (NKO-T) (See Top Picks). Very speculative. Very expensive wells and take way longer than you think. Still no agreement between Baghdad and Kurds on royalties, etc. | 2011-02-22 | ||
| TOP PICK | WesternZagros Resources Ltd. | WZR-X | 0.500 | Kurdistan. Had a well with massive pressure problems that cost over $100 million. Now in the process of drilling 2 wells that are higher up. Talisman (TLM-T) is drilling just to the north of the Kootinan(?) and will bring the bigger rig down to drill. If any of these plays come in, he can see $3-$5 NAV being created. Not enough money to complete their program but are in the process of raising it. | 2011-02-22 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Sea Dragon Energy Inc. | SDX-X | 0.240 | Egyptian oil producer. Doing about 1,375 BOEs a day and they fraced 6 wells that they’ll be bringing on production, so he sees them doing 1800-1900 BOEs a day. | 2011-02-22 | ||
| HOLD | Canadian Oil Sands | COS-T | 33.320 | Getting back near its highs. If you have 2 to 3 years, definitely hold it and wait for weakness to buy more, otherwise there is not much more upside. | 2009-10-20 | ||
| HOLD | Husky Energy | HSE-T | 32.770 | Has not responded, but has been a descent return. But will stay 2 or 3 dollars either side until we see a sustainable recovery in the economy and we see something happen in Nat Gas. This is a nice way to get into the patch for the conservative investor. Reasonable dividend 3.6%. Not likely to be taken over. | 2009-10-20 | ||
| TOP PICK | Niko Resources | NKO-T | 90.560 | There are a number of things they are going to drill on the upside. The big upside is that they are the operator of the play in Kurdistan. There will be a lot of cash flow coming out of India that they can then go and drill 7 or 8 high impact plays. If there is any success, then this stock goes higher. | 2009-10-20 | ||
| BUY | Paramount Resources | POU-T | 14.800 | Fabulous run. Part of reason is (1) the gas price recovery, (2) the balance sheet is very strong and (3) they own a large slug of land in North Dakota where some of the initial well information is expected very shortly, which will have a lot of upside potential. | 2009-10-20 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Suncor Energy Inc | SU-T | 39.870 | Well managed. You may see stock under $30 if you are pessimistic on oil. | 2009-10-20 | ||
| BUY | Talisman Energy | TLM-T | 19.700 | Has liked this company all along. Management team does a fabulous job, great assets globally. Don’t chase it here. | 2009-10-20 | ||
| HOLD | UTS Energy | UTS-T (Dead) | 2.240 | Could be taken over any day. Management wants to get a fair price for the company. We know the asset is there. | 2009-10-20 | ||
| N/A | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Thinks the US$ will go lower so commodities will go up. But there will be a rally if there is more trouble in the middle east or the economy rebounds in the US. If we have a very cold winter we may have some increase in Nat Gas prices, otherwise a retreat. | 2009-10-20 | ||
| Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Nat Gas: If you have a normal winter we will still have excess capacity at the end of it. | 2009-10-20 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Delphi Energy Corp. | DEE-T | 1.620 | (Top Pick Nov 14/08, Up %24.6) Would be a buyer here. Like the company. They have an oil business to grow while Nat Gas is suffering. | 2009-10-20 | ||
| TOP PICK | Delphi Energy Corp. | DEE-T | 1.620 | Has a very dominant core in west Alberta. There is vertical as well as horizontal potential. They’ve started going after the horizontal natural gas. Just did a number of acquisitions to try to get control of that area. By next year they should be doing about 8,000 bue’s a day. They estimate $.35 in cash flow. | 2009-10-20 | ||
| WAIT | Sterling Resources | SLG-X | 1.580 | Nice run from the lows. This is a company that has two nice discoveries – UK and Romania.. Should have production Q1 2012. Could be a $5-6 stock in 2012. Could take profits at these levels. Buy below $1.25 | 2009-10-20 | ||
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| DON'T BUY | Penn West Petroleum | PWT-T | 17.500 | The trust is over soon. The company is gearing up for post-tax-protection. These companies are all in a transition phase and this is a risk. It’s going from an income investor to an equity investor. Many of these companies will have to cut back or eliminate distributions. | 2009-10-20 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Vero Energy Inc. | VRO-T | 4.750 | (Top Pick Nov 14/08, Down 25%) Because of debt load they have not done as expected. | 2009-10-20 | ||
| SELL | Bankers Petroleum | BNK-T | 4.970 | Production numbers have not come on as quickly as expected. Production profile is down, not up, which is what you want to see. It is trading at an expensive price. Market s looking at reserves in the ground and is doing horizontal drilling. You want to take some profits. | 2009-10-20 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Questerre Energy | QEC-T | 2.680 | 52 week high today. Still in the pilot stage. Will be another year to get into development. If you own it, stay with it, no urgency to buy it. If there is a correction, then load up on it. Fabulous buy under $2 | 2009-10-20 | ||
| TOP PICK | Gran Tierra Energy Inc. | GTE-T | 5.120 | They are fully valued today. Biggest upside is in Peru. They are going to drill next year in Q2/Q3 next year. It is light and medium gravity oil. If they have any success we would be looking at a double-digit target. | 2009-10-20 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Vast Exploration Inc. | VST-X | 0.670 | Because of aggressive cash burns has raised a lot of equity and he is not keen on owning a company that does this. | 2009-10-20 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | WesternZagros Resources Ltd. | WZR-X | 1.760 | (Top Pick Nov 14/08, Up %155) Drill well right now. Looking to find 500 Million bpd. There has been a lack of news recently. Buy on weakness below $1.50. A risky play for some. | 2009-10-20 | ||
| BUY | Sea Dragon Energy Inc. | SDX-X | 0.280 | Focused in Egypt. Potentially exploration upside. Currently raising money and that is holding the stock back. As they take operatorships in Egypt that they can run themselves, we will all be happy investors. | 2009-10-20 | ||
| WAIT | Canadian Overseas Petroleum | XOP-X | 0.650 | Had a good run. He is going after some of the assets that were in Oil Exco. In the process of raising money. Until we see the format of the financing, wait before being a buyer. Will play out I the next few months. | 2009-10-20 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Compton Petroleum | CMT-T | 1.110 | A couple of problems. 1) In the gas business and 2) have a very high debt load. New management is focusing on cutting costs. Speculative. Consider selling for tax losses. | 2009-08-21 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Canadian Natural Rsrcs | CNQ-T | 65.000 | Fabulous company. Horizon is now on and is ramping up. Using the cash flow to pay down debt. Would be a fabulous by $55-$60. | 2009-08-21 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Niko Resources | NKO-T | 72.910 | (A Top Pick July 25/08. Down 8.73%.) The D6 play in offshore India is on. Ramping up of the volumes will occur between now and the end of the year. Have a fixed contract for gas at $4.20. Look for an entry point anywhere below $70. (Doesn't own but has other relations with the firm.) | 2009-08-21 | ||
| HOLD | Paramount Resources | POU-T | 8.300 | Natural gas. Good operators and great land spread in Western Canada. Very strong balance sheet. On a 3 to 5 year time horizon he thinks the stock is potentially a double. | 2009-08-21 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Canadian Superior Energy Inc | SNG-T (Dead) | 0.730 | (A Top Pick July 25/08. Down 79.53%.) Massive natural gas discovery in Trinidad. Management concerns and is expecting changes/go forward strategies on Sept 9 so wait for guidance. (Doesn't own but has other relations with the firm.) | 2009-08-21 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Suncor Energy Inc | SU-T | 35.530 | Has done very well because of its leverage to oil prices. If there is a correction in oil prices, he could see this dropping to below $30. | 2009-08-21 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Talisman Energy | TLM-T | 17.900 | Good management and good assets. Below $15 would be a great entry point. | 2009-08-21 | ||
| BUY | Trans Canada Corp | TRP-T | 31.990 | Bringing on an oil pipeline system into the US, which will bring a lot of upside growth. Once natural gas prices recover in the next couple of years, they will be involved in any expansion in Western Canada. | 2009-08-21 | ||
| Comment | Vermilion Energy Inc | VET-T | 30.040 | Good management. Trying to sell their Libyan assets. | 2009-08-21 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Crew Energy Inc. | CR-T | 5.740 | Acquired Gentry Resources last year, which gave them more oil bases in the Princess area. Using some of the new horizontal techniques. Recently did a financing to pay down debt along with their cash flows. Should be a survivor. Could potentially drop below $5. | 2009-08-21 | ||
| Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Natural Gas. Did what he expected by dropping to the $2.95 area. US inventories are at about 3.2 TCF and maximum capacity is about 3.7. Plugging in the average of 5 years storage between now and end of September, it will be full either the last week of September or the first week of October. Withdrawal does not start until November 1st so there may be a few weeks where there is no place to store, which might have prices go down to very low levels such as $1 or $1.50. | 2009-08-21 | ||
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| Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Oil. There is still 100 million barrels more in storage. Demand did not go up and once you get past Labour Day gasoline demand will fall off again so there will be too much crude. OPEC is cheating at 75% compliance versus 80% a couple months ago. Expecting $10-$15, maybe $20 of downside in the S&P TSX energy index. When the correction comes you want to be ready to buy the bargains. | 2009-08-21 | ||
| TOP PICK | Delphi Energy Corp. | DEE-T | 1.050 | (A Top Pick July 25/08. Down 59.92%.) Have become very careful with their debt load. Production is right where he wants them to be. Cash flow has improved because of hedging. Increased production in Q2 versus Q1. Acquiring Fairmount Energy (FMT-TX). By below $1. | 2009-08-21 | ||
| TOP PICK | Galleon Energy Inc. | GO-T | 4.350 | Has a core area in the Peace River arch of about 1 million acres. Mostly natural gas but a good oil weighting. Balance sheet is in good shape. Think they will do over $1 in cash flow this year. BV is $8.45. Think they will be increasing production by the 4th quarter. (Doesn't own but has other relations with the firm.) | 2009-08-21 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Bankers Petroleum | BNK-T | 3.740 | Heavy oil project in Albania. Good management. Having good success with some of their horizontal wells that can do 150 to 160 BOEs a day but generated only $0.03 in cash flow or $0.12 annualized. Most companies trade at 4 or 5 times cash flow so trading way above what they should be.$2.80 or lower would be his entry point. | 2009-08-21 | ||
| TOP PICK | Gran Tierra Energy Inc. | GTE-T | 4.350 | Colombian basin. Had some problems recently with a tax on the pipeline system. Costayaco play has continued to work out for them. Should do about $.80 in cash flow. As upside in other areas of Colombia and will be doing some high impact exploration drilling. Also have upside in Peru. Pristine balance sheet. | 2009-08-21 | ||
| Comment | Vast Exploration Inc. | VST-X | 0.475 | In Kurdistan with Niko Resources (NKO-T) as their main partner. Niko is talking about drilling in either Q1 or Q2 of 2010. Prefers to play this through Niko or WesternZagros (WZR-X). | 2009-08-21 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | WesternZagros Resources Ltd. | WZR-X | 1.810 | If there is an oil price correction as expected you might see the stock below $1.30. If the stock has not corrected by end of September, early October then you want to be a buyer | 2009-08-21 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Sea Dragon Energy Inc. | SDX-X | 0.175 | New management changes. Just announced their first deal in Egypt with Premier Oil Overseas taking on wells that can do a couple of thousand barrels a day. They will take a 10% interest. Looking for more deals and he is hoping they will be up to do that. Stock is at about $.17 and they have about $0.08 in cash. | 2009-08-21 | ||
| TOP PICK | Niko Resources | NKO-T | 62.190 | Ramp up of production announced a while ago. Good price, sheltered from tax. Already working in projects in other countries. Major risk of getting project on line is over. Buy after a correction in oil prices. | 2009-05-01 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Niko Resources | NKO-T | 62.190 | (Top Pick Apr 4/08 Down 25.44%) Is still a top pick. | 2009-05-01 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Precision Drilling | PD-T | 5.550 | We are in the spring break up when demand is at its lowest level. No reason to be chasing the stock right here. | 2009-05-01 | ||
| HOLD | Suncor Energy Inc | SU-T | 32.370 | PCA is great acquisition for Suncor. 95% chance of it going forward. They will sell off some of the non-core assets. They are high beta to the price of oil. | 2009-05-01 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Talisman Energy | TLM-T | 15.910 | Had very good success in Asia. Likes story longer term. Have significant upside potential in current projects | 2009-05-01 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Oilexco Inc | OIL-X | 0.145 | (Top Pick Apr 4/08 Down 99.20%) Got into a debt problem. Company got blindsided by the storm. Management is trying to resurrect company. If Chrysler can come out of bankruptcy, then so can Oilexco. | 2009-05-01 | ||
| Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Worst of the recession is behind us, but US inventories are way too high. Chance for a significant correction. Oil could go to $40-42. | 2009-05-01 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Delphi Energy Corp. | DEE-T | 1.050 | Despite a weak commodity market will be able to bring on new production. Did a good job in hedging. Will start performing in 3’rd and 4’th quarter. | 2009-05-01 | ||
| WAIT | Sterling Resources | SLG-X | 0.970 | Has two very big discoveries. Romanian project will start production in 2011, as will UK project. He is in the process of reviewing this stock. Target used to be $2-$3. | 2009-05-01 | ||
| HOLD | TriStar Oil & Gas | TOG-T | 11.000 | Could be a $1 or $2 correction in this one. | 2009-05-01 | ||
| WAIT | Bankers Petroleum | BNK-T | 1.730 | He likes this one. They don’t make much at these oil prices. Probably wont do anything short term on the up side until oil increases. Has s good balance sheet. | 2009-05-01 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Profound Energy Inc. | PFX-T | 1.290 | (Top Pick Apr 4/08 Down 64.75%) Took profits after it was taken over. | 2009-05-01 | ||
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| TOP PICK | Gran Tierra Energy Inc. | GTE-T | 2.980 | Liked it a long time. Great success in Columbia. Sitting on lots of cash, no debt. Likes current cash flow. Home run potential in Peru. Biggest risk would be country risk if it became so in Columbia. Buy after correction in oil prices. | 2009-05-01 |