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John Zechner of J. Zechner & Assoc

Opinions from John Zechner

TOP PICKTalisman EnergyTLM-T18.200Growing and is at reasonable valuation. Reinvented themselves in the last year or two. Have international plays, natural gas and light oil. Could be takeout candidate. (Not likely.) Otherwise it will grow and benefit from higher oil prices.2010-02-01
TOP PICKMicrosoftMSFT-Q28.410As well positioned as we have seen them for the last 10+ years. Windows 7 is a winner and is leading to a refresh product cycle. Have generated a mountain of cash. Only trading at about 11X forward earnings.2010-02-01
TOP PICKAgriumAGU-T62.740Likes it better than Potash (POT-T) on a valuation basis and is more diversified. If they can complete the CF acquisition it could add more to it. The vertical integration will give them more stable earnings growth. Good long-term story.2010-02-01
PAST TOP PICKResearch In MotionRIM-T68.060(A Top Pick Feb 2/09. Down 2.4%.) Still likes. As cheap as it has ever been. Have the carrier relations on a global basis to continue to compete. Smart phone market is growing. Trading at 16X current earnings.2010-02-01
PAST TOP PICKU.S. Oil Fund E.T.F.USO-N36.720(A Top Pick Feb 2/09. Up 29%.) This was disappointing. Oil was at about $40 and has now almost doubled. Right investment call for buying oil when it was cheap but was the wrong vehicle. Playing through growing producers would be a better way.2010-02-01
PAST TOP PICKAecon Group IncARE-T13.690(A Top Pick Feb 2/09. Up 39%.) Well positioned. Getting a lot of projects in Ontario, out West and in the oil sands. Has a couple of good years of growth ahead of it. Trading at about 4-5 times operating cash flow. Still a Buy.2010-02-01
BUYThompson Creek MetalsTCM-T13.320Molybdenum is needed for hardening of steel. Prices have started to head higher again. Big demand from China. This is the purest play in Canada.2010-02-01
DON'T BUYBCE Inc.BCE-T27.430Outlook is relatively stable. Had a nice move off the bottom. Sold his holdings last year when it ran up. Problem is there is no real growth. Wire line is not growing at all.2010-02-01
BUYRogers Communcations (B)RCI.B-T33.560There is price competition but wireless is continuing to grow. There is application growth, data usage growth plus they have the cable and media side.2010-02-01
BUYIntelINTC-Q19.610Their numbers blew him away. Margins are back where they where in the mid-60’s. Gaining market share again. Have a PC refresh cycle coming around, driven by Windows 7. Good valuations. 2010-02-01
BUYSNC-Lavalin Group Inc.SNC-T49.930Still sees the stimulus program being in place. Companies like this should do exceptionally well over the next couple of years, especially in power projects.2010-02-01
HOLDBank of AmericaBAC-N15.420US financial stocks are starting to act a little bit better. US administration is going to be less punitive than it looked like they would be. Thinks their acquisitions, particularly Merrill Lynch, will work out relatively well for them.2010-02-01
DON'T BUYLas Vegas Sands Corp.LVS-N17.110Wouldn't be inclined to put anything into anything that is dependent on US consumer and discretionary spending. Even with the decline, the valuations are so stretched out that he still finds them expensive.2010-02-01
DON'T BUYEquinox MineralsLtd.EQN-T3.520Copper as well as uranium in Africa. A little concerned about Copper. Inventories dropped dramatically last year but have built almost back to where they where. Has great growth potential and might even be a takeout candidate. There is still a lot of political risk in Africa and he would be more inclined to look at North American risks instead.2010-02-01
STRONG BUYUranium Participation Corp.U-T6.110The price of the stock is reflecting $40 uranium a pound. Global cost of uranium is rising north of $50. Strong demand and reduced supply and he could see the price going back to $70-$80 easily which would put the price of this over $10 a share.2010-02-01
BUYManulife FinancialMFC-T19.930This is one of the better plays in the financial sector. Capital position is much better shape than it was. Have international growth. Valuation is attractive. Would take this over the bank stocks currently. 2.6% yield.2010-02-01
BUYSunlife FinancialSLF-T31.720Looks very well positioned to grow. Would take this over the bank stocks currently. 4.5% yield.2010-02-01
DON'T BUYThomson Reuters CorpTRI-T36.040Has always been an expensive stock. A little bit worried about how they are ultimately going to fare with the competition against Bloomberg. Already trading 10X operating cash flow so you are not going to get a higher multiple. Growth is slowing down.2010-02-01
PARTIAL BUYMagna Int'l. (A)MG.A-T59.360Haven't owned anything in the auto sector for a while but is warming up to it and looking at getting back in. Likes the consolidation in the industry. Getting better penetration into Europe. Have come through the auto crisis relatively well. Valuation is a little bit ahead of itself.2010-02-01
DON'T BUYQuebecor Inc (B)QBR.B-T29.310Relatively cheap but has a lot of spending ahead of it with Videotron getting more involved with the wireless business. Valuation is pretty good discount to the break-up value.2010-02-01
DON'T BUYUnited States SteelX-N47.320Got pummelled last week on earnings. They just didn't deliver. You don't want to play steel directly, play the inputs to steel or the mini-mills. Integrated steel producers are still having a tough time. Mid $40s would be a buy but not your best way to play.2010-02-01
CommentGerdau Ameristeel CorpGNA-T8.310Prefers the mini-mills to the large integrated steel producers. You don't get nailed as much by the increase in iron ore costs.2010-02-01
BUYAppleAAPL-Q194.730Wouldn't count a lot on the iPad. Ultimately you can’t be sure it is the success that you saw from the iPhone and particularly the iPod. Company has a lot of in-growth going for it. Buy and put it away, don't try to trade it and in a couple of years you will be higher.2010-02-01
DON'T BUYAngiotech PharmaceuticalsANP-T1.210What hurts them was they levered up for an acquisition using debt at the wrong time and have never been able to get out from under that cloud of debt and he doesn't think they will.2010-02-01
WEAK BUYPrecision Drilling Corp.PD.UN-T8.570Doesn't think there is a lot of upside in this one. Cheap and can ultimately go higher but in the drilling sector you want to be in things that are growing fast such as fraqing and shallow drilling plays. Gives a decent yield and valuation is relatively cheap.2010-02-01
BUYBiovail Corp.BVF-T15.890Cut the dividend to conserve some cash and doesn't think they will increase it. Have a new growth strategy in place. Earnings are starting to grow again. Trades at about 9X forward earnings and the balance sheet is in pretty good shape. Generic sector is still growing.2010-02-01
CommentA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA Commentary0.020Canadian housing. Are we looking at a price break down when interest rates rise? He doesn't think so as we didn't move up like the US market did. Theirs went up on aggressive financing and aggressive financing techniques. Also doesn't think interest rates are rising very soon or very much.2010-02-01
SELLOpti Canada Inc.OPC-T1.920Long Lake project has really not worked out. Had trouble getting production up and the steam injection right. Costs have gone a lot higher than expected. They don't have the ability to fund much further development.2010-02-01
HOLDLoblaw Companies LtdL-T35.570(Market Call Minute.) Has had management turnover and growth has slowed.2010-02-01
STRONG BUYPotash Corp of SaskatchewanPOT-T110.070(Market Call Minute.) We are early on in the cycle. Prices are heading higher.2010-02-01
STRONG BUYYamana Gold Inc.YRI-T11.350(Market Call Minute.) Gold stocks look incredibly cheap and these guys have decent production growth. Have copper as well.2010-02-01
HOLDTrans Canada CorpTRP-T34.460(Market Call Minute.) If you want a yield continue to hold. Not much growth and somewhat expensive.2010-02-01
HOLDSierra WirelessSW-T12.000(Market Call Minute.) Really likes this one and it has had a great move. Last year's European acquisition looks really good. Sector is growing and they're well positioned but stock is already had a good move.2010-02-01
DON'T BUYManitoba Telecom ServicesMBT-T33.420“Manitoba Telecom (MBT-T) or Crescent Point (CPG-T) for dividend and safety?” From a pure safety point of view, you are always better off with a telecom than an oil company however there is a chance Manitoba Tel may have to cut their dividend depending of what they do on the wireless side. Not generating very much earnings growth. To be really safe he would select Telus (T-T) or BCE (BCE-T).2009-12-23
WAITTelus CorpT-T33.230Starting to look interesting again. With the headwinds of Globalive now getting approval and a few new players in wireless, expect margins will be under pressure for a couple of quarters. Earnings growth is okay.2009-12-23
WATCHMotorolaMOT-N7.930Probably the dark horse in the sector. If you want to be aggressive and play potential market share gains for that Droid in the smart phone space, maybe they will take some market share away from Apple (AAPL-Q) and RIM (RIM-T) but with their valuation he doesn't think he would go out on a limb and be aggressive.2009-12-23
HOLDEncana CorpECA-T33.850Split into 2 companies with this one retaining natural gas and Cenovus (CVE-T) keeping the oil sands assets, some gas and downstream refining. There has been a pop in the natural gas market but he is still sceptical of it. If you own both, he would hold.2009-12-23
HOLDCenovus EnergyCVE-T25.500Encana (ECA-T) split into 2 companies with this one retaining oil sands assets, some gas and downstream refining and this one has the natural gas assets. Has been a pop in the natural gas market but he is still sceptical of it. If you own both, he would hold.2009-12-23
BUYA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA Commentary0.020Gold. Had been overdue for a pullback. US$ had a bounce, which he thinks will be short-term. Looking for $1200 to $1250, will consolidate and then go to $1500. Gold stocks are a great opportunity as they are not reflecting $1080-$1100 gold prices. His selections would be Barrick (ABX-T) in the seniors and Red Back (RBI-T) and Yamana (YRI-T) in the midsize.2009-12-23
DON'T BUYCCL Industries (B)CCL.B-T27.500There are still some cost considerations. Have been hurt by the rising Cdn$. Reasonable valuation but he would not be rushing out to buy at these levels.2009-12-23
DON'T BUYCitiGroupC-N3.290An aggressive play. If you are really bullish on the markets and financials in general, this could give your best return but is subject to large dilution. More difficult turnaround for this one. Has a higher cost structure embedded in it.2009-12-23
BUYNational Bank of CanadaNA-T59.610On the relative valuation basis he can see more upside than in other banks.2009-12-23
DON'T BUYBank of Nova ScotiaBNS-T48.260Continues to under perform compared to the rest banks. Has the largest premium on earnings. Hasn't demonstrated growth in their offshore assets. Thinks they will lag the other banks going forward.2009-12-23
TOP PICKSuncor Energy IncSU-T37.130Likes the merger they did with Petrocan. There is a lot of potential there. Looking for oil prices to work their way higher. Undervalued.2009-12-23
TOP PICKOpen TextOTC-T41.560Consolidation going on in software and this company is well positioned. Their acquisitions are adding to their existing base pretty well. Compliance software is a growth area that everybody has to have. 11X forward earnings. Generating cash and have lots of cash on the balance sheet.2009-12-23
TOP PICKAgriumAGU-T65.750Would like to see them finish the CF Industries acquisition one way or another. Starting to fall together. Fundamentals for the industry are getting better.2009-12-23
PAST TOP PICKAecon Group IncARE-T15.100(A Top Pick Feb 2/09. Up 50.24%.) Undervalued at 4-5 times cash flow and is a great growth story. Key player in infrastructure projects. Still a Buy.2009-12-23
PAST TOP PICKResearch In MotionRIM-T70.750(A Top Pick Feb 2/09. Up 2.43%.) A little concerned over the next couple of quarters.2009-12-23
PAST TOP PICKU.S. Oil Fund E.T.F.USO-N37.740(A Top Pick Feb 2/09. Up 28.73%.)2009-12-23
TOP PICKResearch In MotionRIM-T60.970(A Top Pick Nov 20/08. Up 13.4%.) A profitable device for the carriers to sell. Smart phone market is still the fastest growing area of wireless right now. Clean balance sheet and growing 25% a year. Trading at 12X forward earnings.2009-11-30
TOP PICKBarrick GoldABX-T44.860Decent production growth going forward. Brought in their hedge book. New management is in place. Sector is undervalued and this is the larger player. Doesn't see much political risks with their projects.2009-11-30
TOP PICKManulife FinancialMFC-T18.440Stumbled on raising capital and what they had in their guaranteed products. Lots of capital and will make acquisitions. Better growth in lifecos than in banks going forward. Potential to earn $2.50-$3 a share 2 years out, which would put the stock into the mid-$30's.2009-11-30
PAST TOP PICKAecon Group IncARE-T13.970(A Top Pick Nov 20/08. Up 150%.) Cheap at 5X operating cash flow. Infrastructure projects are key. Acquired Lockerbie & Hole at the bottom of the oil hole was great. Well positioned.2009-11-30
PAST TOP PICKNexen IncNXY-T24.830(A Top Pick Nov 20/08. Up 72.8 %.) Well diversified with a lot of projects globally.2009-11-30
SELLAmerican International GroupAIG-N28.400Can't see a real recovery coming in this one. Still need to raise more capital as well as paying back the money loaned to them by the government. There will be more dilution. A lot of internal problems.2009-11-30
CommentSPDR Financial E.T.F.XLF-N14.660US financial ETF. Prefers this broader basket. Balance sheet risks in the individual companies are hard to evaluate right now.2009-11-30
DON'T BUYHusky EnergyHSE-T27.700Negative on this company is that it is more heavy oil, which drives to the refinery, and that end is not doing as well. Margins are getting hurt.2009-11-30
BUYTalisman EnergyTLM-T18.200Great international basket of assets, which he likes. Have a better Canadian strategy recently with their new management. Good valuation.2009-11-30
BUYiShares Cdn Corp Bond E.T.F.XCB-T20.750Canadian Corporate Bond ETF. Spread between corporate and government bonds have narrowed a fair bit. Owning an ETF in the sector makes a lot of sense. Better diversification.2009-11-30
CommentA T & T UST-N20.350Not much growth in telecom right now. They'll continue to pay out a decent dividend. 6.1% yield.2009-11-30
DON'T BUYEncana CorpECA-T56.570Spun off their oil into Cenovus (CVE-T) and both are trading around similar values. Cenovus Looks like a lower growth oil company with a little bit too much on the downstream business. Prefers others. Sold his holdings.2009-11-30
DON'T BUYCenovus EnergyCVE-T26.810Encana (ECA-T) spun off their oil into this company and both are trading around similar values. Cenovus Looks like a lower growth oil company with a little bit too much on the downstream business. Prefers others. Sold his holdings.2009-11-30
CommentA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA Commentary0.020Natural gas. He is right out of the sector as he feels natural gas is way too high right now.2009-11-30
CommentRoyal BankRY-T56.810This is more the stable player in banks with the best of the consumer market. Worries are little about their US exposure. Feels banks are now fairly valued. Earnings growth will be slow because of dilution. Good dividends.2009-11-30
WEAK BUYAltria Group IncMO-N18.810Safe, slow growth and paying out of a lot of their earnings as dividends. Reinvesting some dividends into greater growth areas but are limited in growth going forward. Valuation is cheap because of low growth. 7.2% yield.2009-11-30
CommentTeck Resources Ltd. (B)TCK.B-T36.490Had a great run and valuation is a little high but could probably still work its way higher. Primarily North American so no political risk. MACD is starting to turn a little bit south and there could be support at about $4 lower.2009-11-30
CommentA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA Commentary0.020Gold. Thanks it will keep going higher.2009-11-30
DON'T BUYBombardier Inc (B)BBD.B-T4.480Worries that until the C series comes out in 2013 it could have a pretty flat earnings profile. Margins have flattened out.2009-11-30
BUYThompson Creek MetalsTCM-T12.560Direct play on molybdenum, whose prices have started to move a little higher. Starting to look like a good entry point. Has lagged the metal names in general. China has become a net importer again.2009-11-30
BUYIamgold CorpIMG-T19.890Gold. Has one of the better production profiles for a midsize producer. Valuation is relatively low.2009-11-30
STRONG BUYCanadian Natural RsrcsCNQ-T70.470The Horizon project is now on and this is one of the better oil sands projects. Also have other production growth. Valuation is cheap. A major player on the global scale.2009-11-30
HOLDA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA Commentary0.020Canadian banks. Far better shape than the US or European banks. From a safety point of view he has very little worry about them. Doesn't think they will rise as much as they have but there are great dividend yields on them with some growth.2009-11-30
BUYNational Bank of CanadaNA-T63.180This would be his #1 choice in Canadian banks. It is a dark horse. Doesn't have a lot of the problems. No exposure in the US. Good discount to the group. 3.9% yield.2009-11-30
DON'T BUYDenison Mines CorpDML-T1.460Feels uranium is going higher. Global costs is rising to $50-$60 a pound. Demand for nuclear facilities continues to grow. Would not have this company on the top of his list. Have a higher cost structure and not as much growth in production.2009-11-30
DON'T BUYYellow Pages Income FundYLO.UN-T5.630Worried about everything going electronic. Their distribution may come down. There is no prospect of growth.2009-10-20
BUYFinning IntFTT-T17.480Their products needed for all the infrastructure projects.2009-10-20
BUYNational Bank of CanadaNA-T59.310Favorite of the banks for the valuation, higher Canadian $ could be bit of a problem.2009-10-20
BUYGeneral ElectricGE-N15.580Been a buy all year. If you focus on the industrial part of their business it would justify it.2009-10-20
WEAK BUYEncana CorpECA-T64.390Likes it, but not his favorite. Not bullish on Nat Gas. He is bullish on oil. The split will be completed soon.2009-10-20
TOP PICKResearch In MotionRIM-T69.860Rim and Apple own this market. And Smart Phones are only 20% of the market. The bandwidth is so much more efficient with Rim than Apple. Rim is so much cheaper. He owns both. Risk is the average selling price of products. It is coming down as they migrate to the consumer market.2009-10-20
TOP PICKBiovail Corp.BVF-T14.770Likes a story that everyone else hates and there is a very low valuation. They re-invested themselves. Balance sheet is in great shape. They are focused on central nervous system drugs. The valuation relative to the rest of the group is very cheap. They are generating tones of cash. High operating margins, high free cash flow. Analysts are just starting to pick up on it.2009-10-20
TOP PICKSuncor Energy IncSU-T39.870Good management at Suncor, good assets at Petro Canada. They weeded out the assets they don’t want. They sold off some Nat Gas assets recently. They are very focused. It’s a great story. They will be a big player in the oil patch and they will get a higher valuation over time. The big risk is environmental risk (oil sands). 2009-10-20
PAST TOP PICKAecon Group IncARE-T11.960(Top Pick Nov 20/08, Up 115.8%) Still holds it.2009-10-20
PAST TOP PICKResearch In MotionRIM-T69.860(Top Pick Nov 20/08, Up 28.63%) Still a top pick.2009-10-20
PAST TOP PICKNexen IncNXY-T25.760(Top Pick Nov 20/08, Up 81.78%) They say they are going to have their best year ever next year. These guys could be taken out at some point.2009-10-20
CommentA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA Commentary0.020Apple outdid themselves this time. There is a sweet spot in spending on the ipods and so on. The second and third quarter earnings came out ahead of expectations. He is still overweight gold. 2009-10-20
BUYRogers Communcations (B)RCI.B-T28.330This is a great opportunity to step in. They have lagged the market. They are a great growth story. Still a great growth story when you look at the balance sheet, cash generation, and diversity. He’s been adding to his position.2009-10-20
DON'T BUYWestjet AirlinesWJA-T11.150Wouldn’t own it. Would prefer other airlines.2009-10-20
PAST TOP PICKAecon Group IncARE-T11.650(Top Pick Nov 20/08, Up 107%) Management says next year is going to be one of their best years yet. No one is better positioned for infrastructure projects. Badly beaten up last year. Preferred over SNC2009-10-06
PAST TOP PICKNexen IncNXY-T23.140(Top Pick Nov 20/08, Up 59%) Pretty well positioned. Long lake held them back. Well diversified.2009-10-06
BUYTalisman EnergyTLM-T19.290Better story than Nexen. Have great international products. New Management’s focus is better. One of his favorites.2009-10-06
BUYSilver WheatonSLW-T14.310This is a royalty play. They buy royalties on existing projects. Likes the valuation longer term. Buy more silver plays than gold, which he prefers. Good long term hold and continues to grow.2009-10-06
BUYSuncor Energy IncSU-T36.450It’s always had a bit of a premium multiple. It gets a valuation like the large integrateds in the US. It’s one of the better big plays for oil in Canada. Petrocan merger makes a ton of sense. Likes the story. If oil prices don’t come back, there’s your risk.2009-10-06
DON'T BUYA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA Commentary0.020Nat-Gas : Unless we are heading into the coldest winter on record, the good news is in for a while. Take profits and look for something else2009-10-06
DON'T BUYCom Dev International Ltd.CDV-T2.910Valuation is not that attractive. Canadian dollar is a huge headwind for anyone who exports their product. Does not stick out as that cheap.2009-10-06
BUYMcDonaldsMCD-N57.440Positioned themselves exceptionally well. Benefits from falling US$, great brand name. Reinvented themselves. Valuation is a little higher than it was in the past. If you are going to own the US, own what they sell to the rest of the world.2009-10-06
DON'T BUYCitiGroupC-N4.670Haven’t paid back any of their TARP money. Growth will be muted, then have to raise more equity. Would prefer a derivative like an ETF. Would prefer Bank of America for a levered US bank.2009-10-06
DON'T BUYCameco CorporationCCO-T29.620Uranium prices are going higher. Supplies are going to be constrained. It will do well, but other names will do better, e.g. U-T.2009-10-06
BUYShoppers Drug Mart CorpSC-T43.860Not too worried about legislative changes affecting them. Top of the list for consumer staples, which is lagging right now. Looking to add to the position.2009-10-06
BUYIBMIBM-N121.350Likes it. Done well in the service industry. People don’t look at this company. Great growth story, international. IBM is cheaper than others like HP and Dell.2009-10-06

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