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John Zechner of J. Zechner & Assoc

Opinions from John Zechner

CommentNational Bank of CanadaNA-T46.510This is probably the bank that looks the most defensive at this time. This may ultimately be one of the better places to go. Still not rushing out to look at banks at this time.2008-07-14
HOLDToronto DominionTD-T55.740Getting down to a point where it is getting close. Would like to see another quarter or two to see what happens with their purchase of Commerce Bank Corp in the US.2008-07-14
HOLDRoyal BankRY-T41.030Have some issues they have to deal with. Expansion in the US and limited growth in Canada. Valuation is getting somewhat more attractive. Wouldn't rush out and buy the banks yet.2008-07-14
HOLDBank of MontrealBMO-T40.090On a yield basis, banks are looking very attractive. Market is signalling some concern about the yields with the downturn. Still have problems with their trading operations and their US operations.2008-07-14
CommentA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA Commentary0.020Gold: Very short term it has a great technical foundation. US$ is having a hard time getting back on its feet again. Gold could be taking a run back to $1000 again. Beyond that, he expects the US$ to bottom relatively soon or at some point this year. Once there is a firmness in the US$, there could be a massive exodus out of the commodity market in general.2008-07-14
BUYKinross GoldK-T24.620Midsize and smaller golds are the ones that are looking more interesting at this point. They are cheaper at relative valuations. Would be more inclined to stick with names like this in the near term.2008-07-14
TOP PICKCanWest Global Comm.CGS-T2.250Have messed up so many things in the past year. At current levels, the stock is reflecting near bankruptcy. However, they have an operating cash flow of almost $700 million. It is worth more dead than alive if you broke it up. At this level you should be able to make money on it.2008-07-14
TOP PICKSierra WirelessSW-T14.550Trading at under 10X earnings. Sitting on net cash on the balance sheet of around $4 a share. Very cheap. Have beaten expectations 5 quarters running. Modems and built-in equipment are selling.2008-07-14
TOP PICKYamana Gold Inc.YRI-T15.610There is a chance that the US$ rolls down and you get another pop-up in gold. One of the cheaper gold stocks. Have a lot of production growth over the next couple of years. Also have great copper leverage with the copper by-product of South America. Very cheap.2008-07-14
BUYMicrosoftMSFT-Q25.150Really cheap at these levels. Great company and great earnings story. Have an absolute whack of cash.2008-07-14
SELLFording Canadian Coal Trust (Inc Trust)FDG.UN-T83.290Not buying the coal story right in here. Had a fantastic move. Demand from China is slowing down. Steel market is slowing down a little bit.2008-07-14
CommentCAE IncCAE-T10.100In the aero sector, everybody is worried about the slowdown in Boeing (BA-N) and what it is going to do for the industry and, by association, less demand for simulators/flight training. Doesn't think it is necessarily true. Looking interesting as a buy at this level. Looking at this one.2008-07-14
CommentTrans Canada CorpTRP-T36.620You won't go wrong with this one. His problem is that you are paying mid to high teens earnings multiple on single-digit growth. (Actually, lower than that with the acquisition they've taken on.) It's safe and it will pay you a yield, which will be better than in a bond market or cash but you won't get a big win on it.2008-04-28
BUYImaging Dynamics CompanyIDL-T0.320Just announced they're going to raise some capital and he thinks he will be buying some of this issue. Last 2 quarters have actually been better. Thinks the company will survive. They have an imaging product that works and they are making headway in the smaller, cheaper end of the market.2008-04-28
DON'T BUYPotash Corp of SaskatchewanPOT-T195.600If the US$ bottomed and held firm, he thinks these stocks would roll over. He thinks the stock has run too hard and he has sold his holdings. On the longer-term basis, it won't be a bad place to be.2008-04-28
BUYRioCan Real Estate InvestmentREI.UN-T21.380Not a big fan of the financials generally right now but within the financials, one of the best acting groups in the US and Canada. are the REITs. Well diversified. At the current levels he thinks you'll do fine.2008-04-28
DON'T BUYCitiGroupC-N26.810Still too early for the financials. Looks cheap and is very tempting and there will be some really good rallies but in the end, it continues to work its way down.2008-04-28
WEAK BUYPetro-CanPCA-T50.130He doesn't see any justification for the current price in oil. Thinks it has rolled over into pure speculation based on the US$. This stock is certainly cheap, but would not be putting a substantial position into it right now. Had a very nice bounce off its recent low.2008-04-28
HOLDTeck Cominco Ltd. (B)TCK.B-T45.890Position very well in some of the best performing commodities right now. Metallurgical coal has been fantastic. He has cut his position in half. He would look at it in the low $40 or high $30.2008-04-28
CommentFinning IntFTT-T31.150Well managed and in an area that will have good secular growth, providing equipment to the mining business. In the short term, he doesn't see much earnings growth but okay for the long-term. Good over the next 5, 10, 15 years. Doesn't see a lot of excitement.2008-04-28
BUYBCE Inc.BCE-T36.780The financiers are going to want to continue doing business in the telecom sector and he can't see them pulling out of the deal. He thinks the deal gets done.2008-04-28
TOP PICKExfo Electro-Optical EngineeringEXF-T5.520They have been beating their numbers. Incredibly cheap. Trading at low multiples.2008-04-28
TOP PICKMiranda Technologies Inc.MT-T9.000Sell digital conversion equipment for most of the stations. They are also selling for HD conversion as well. Putting equipment into a lot of sports facilities. Good product flow right now. Trading at about 9X earnings. Have a whack of cash.2008-04-28
TOP PICKAllen-Vanguard Corp.VRS-T4.100Roadside bomb detectors. On what he thinks they are going to generate on an earnings to cash flow basis, the stock is trading on single-digit multiples at about 4X cash flow. They have the cash but it's under the radar screen.2008-04-28
DON'T BUYWal-Mart Stores Inc.WMT-N57.350Not a big fan of any retailers right now, particularly in the US. The US is clearly into a slowdown in the US consumer is leading the downturn. However, if you have to beat and a retailer's stock, they are winning on the trading down activity in the market. The best of a bad lot.2008-04-28
BUYEquinox MineralsLtd.EQN-T4.670Not a huge fan of the commodity complex but this is cheap on the basis of the current copper price. There is the risk of Zambia and some of the changes in the legislature right now but thinks this is already accounted for in the stock. Thinks it will get taken out in a couple of years.2008-04-28
SELLCanadian Pacific RailCP-T68.560In the short term, he would be out of the rails. Thinks they will miss the area of expectation for the next couple of quarters. They are great longer-term plays.2008-03-06
SELLCanadian National R.R.CNR-T50.830In the short term, he would be out of the rails. Thinks they will miss the area of expectation for the next couple of quarters. They are great longer-term plays.2008-03-06
HOLDUranium One Inc.UUU-T4.450They had 2 issues. All the uranium stocks in general have come down with the drop in uranium prices. Have also had production problems. At this level, he wouldn't be selling.2008-03-06
TOP PICKThomson Reuters CorpTRI-T33.110A lot of arbitragers are still tied into the Reuters stock and there really has only been a one-way street where they could sell. Once the deal closes, he expects to see a little bit of buying. Likes the deal and Reuters looks like they are beating their targets. Thomson’s last quarter was great. Valuation is as cheap as he has ever seen it.2008-03-06
TOP PICKSierra WirelessSW-T13.860Technology seems to be the one sector that is showing a recession. They have over $5 a share in cash. Generating earnings and beat the expectations last quarter on wireless modems. Strong growth. Trading at an insanely low valuation of 7 to 8X earnings.2008-03-06
TOP PICKAnvil Mining Ltd.AVM-T12.7203 properties in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Recent problems and issues with the government getting involved in the contracts. This brought the price down into great valuation range. Great copper production growth coming out in the next couple of years. Trades at only about 3X operating cash flow. Feels the political risk has been overplayed.2008-03-06
SELLCameco CorporationCCO-T38.060Thinks the uranium story is winding down and that uranium prices will be $40-$50 3 years out. This company has had their own production issues to deal with. Not that attractive.2008-03-06
PARTIAL SELLYamana Gold Inc.YRI-T18.750He reduced his position a little bit recently. The mid-tier stocks are where you want to be in the gold industry. They haven't hedged forward their production and have a decent growth profile. This is one of the better, longer-term stories out there. If you own, consider taking some money off the table.2008-03-06
BUYEncana CorpECA-T76.450The natural gas market looks awfully good. These guys have had a great rate of drilling property. Growth has been very good. Diversified. 2% dividend yield.2008-03-06
BUYNexen IncNXY-T31.540Good variety of larger projects that are coming on stream in the next couple of years. Have an interest in the Long Lake project. Valuation is low relative to the rest of the group.2008-03-06
CommentLaurentian BankLB-T41.640This is more of a regional bank and the regional banks didn't stop their toes on the bigger lending issues that some of the bigger players did. Earnings have held up relatively better during this downturn. This has given a higher multiple on the stock. Whether they can continue this way, he doesn't know if he would bet on it.2008-03-06
BUYManulife FinancialMFC-T36.920Got hit with the group in general. Earnings are relatively well insulated. Growing internationally, which is what you want. Not really cheap compared to the banks anymore and the growth is going to slow down a little bit in the downturn, but he still likes it.2008-03-06
SELLBombardier Inc (B)BBD.B-T5.340He wouldn't be jumping all over this one at this point. Had a nice pop off of the depressed bottom they had and it's well ahead of the earnings. Feels mass transit is slowing down a little bit and the margins are relatively low. Backlog is not growing as fast as it was. Fully valued. If he owned, he would be lightening.2008-03-06
BUYPfizer IncPFE-N21.590Trading at 10X earnings, which is the lowest he has ever seen a US pharmaceutical. They are great beneficiaries of the lower US$. Have a great international business. Have lots of cash for acquisitions.2008-03-06
PARTIAL SELLBarrick GoldABX-T50.930Gold stocks are trailing gold bullion a little, in terms of reflecting the move off of bullion. He wouldn't be buying either one right now. His worry is the US$. A lot of the trading in commodities is a straight play off the US$, in the oils, base metals and precious metals. Thinks the US$ will hit a low in the middle of this year or even earlier. When that happens, a lot of the fast money moves of the commodities trade, including gold. He's take some profit.2008-03-06
DON'T BUYCatalyst Paper Corp.CTL-T1.650Even though the stock has come down a long way, he wouldn't be rushing out to buy any of the paper stocks. If you were going to own a paper stock, it would more likely be a US name.2008-03-06
DON'T BUYYellow Pages Income FundYLO.UN-T10.360Got hit along with US Yellow Pages, but it is not the same situation. All income trusts are going to be converted to normal corporations within a 2 to 2.5 year period and he looks at them on an enterprise value to EBITDA. This one is still trading in excess of 10X, which is rather rich for the rate it is growing. 2008-03-06
HOLDRussel MetalsRUS-T24.490Feels the earnings are going to be a little challenged in the short term on most of the industrial companies. They seem to have skated pretty well through steel pricing issues. Had great cash generation and good dividend. Fighting headwinds on the currency on global growth. Thinks the profits will head down in the next year or two.2007-12-05
CommentResearch In MotionRIM-T102.630Even though the market was recovering, the stock was down again today. Maybe a few people are worried about the channel check numbers. They pummelled the estimates so badly that they have built up expectations. If they come in just at consensus or a little above, he thinks the stock will drop. He has cut his holdings down a bit.2007-12-05
CommentBank of MontrealBMO-T60.290Getting interesting at these levels. Trading at 10X next year's earnings.2007-12-05
BUYBiovail Corp.BVF-T15.020Their Welbutrin is facing competition from generic drugs. Almost 10% yield, which he feels is not sustainable. However, the stock has come down a long way and they have a pipeline that is starting to build into 2009. Have lots of cash on the balance sheet. 2007-12-05
PARTIAL SELLTSX GroupX-T53.250The rumour is that they are going to merge with the Montreal exchange. He has a bit of a problem with the valuation of most of the exchanges right now. If you own, he would take some profit.2007-12-05
BUYPower Financial CorpPWF-T41.510Likes this one. Lots of cash. Would love to see them put some of that cash to work right now. Good valuation. A safe place to hide your money.2007-12-05
DON'T BUYHarvest Energy TrustHTE.UN-T21.300Balance sheet is a little bit stretched. Thinks oil prices are heading back down. Sold his holdings earlier this year.2007-12-05
TOP PICKRogers Communcations (B)RCI.B-T42.800Comfortable with the growth in the wireless industry, the valuation and what they are doing on cable. When the iPhone comes to Canada it is a logical choice for them to go with this company. Could be a little shaky on the short term, but he is comfortable with it.2007-12-05
TOP PICKCanWest Global Comm.CGS-T6.900Sentiment is so negative right now that when you add up the value of the Australian assets and the newspapers it covers the current stock price and the debt. You’re getting the television operation and the Alliance-Atlantis purchase almost for free. There could be a few strings attached to the current acquisition. Thinks the market has oversold.2007-12-05
TOP PICKThomson Reuters CorpTRI-T38.350Stock has turned down since they announced the Reuters acquisition. He likes the Reuters deal. Thinks it will be a legitimate contender to Bloomberg's. Well run company.2007-12-05
BUYImaging Dynamics CompanyIDL-T0.600Company has been mismanaged and the stock has been pummelled. Their product is good and well liked. Financially stretched right now and as operators they have not been that good. He would like to add to the position and will be meeting with management. Speculative.2007-12-05
HOLDPetro-CanPCA-T49.280The biggest risk on this is the oil price and the Cdn$. On a longer-term basis, he likes their positioning, refining operations, international diversity and they still have some decent growth.2007-12-05
CommentBank of AmericaBAC-N45.230Still a lot of mystery on the books and he would not be buying into mystery. The market knows what some of a subprime mess is but doesn't know what some of the derivative exposure is, et cetera. If you own, he would trade around the position during a rally. There will be a lot of volatility in the sector.2007-12-05
DON'T BUYCitiGroupC-N33.690There is still mystery in the books and he would not buy into this. Has some management issues.2007-12-05
HOLDPetro-CanPCA-T55.970Defensive play in energy. Valuation compared to other integrateds is good. If oil prices fall, they won't hurt as much because of integrated operations. Have some good growth projects. May have to come up with more money for their Fort Hills project.2007-09-12
BUYMacDonald Dettwiler & Assoc.MDA-T48.830One of his core holdings in the technology group. Finally got the HIP (Home Inspection Program) off the ground in England. Data is going to be the key to growth going forward. A little bit rich on current earnings multiples.2007-09-12
DON'T BUYCameco CorporationCCO-T44.400Uranium story is over for now and thinks uranium will settle out in the $40 to $50 range. Can't justify the current price of this stock.2007-09-12
BUYYamana Gold Inc.YRI-T12.200Trying to acquire Meridian Gold (MNG-T). Likes the stock, whether they get Meridian or not. Good growth profile.2007-09-12
SELLPotash Corp of SaskatchewanPOT-T93.110Good long-term story with the increased use of potash for fertilizers. There is an increased growth story on agriculture in developing countries. They are more expensive than they have been in the past and there could be a pullback. Would take some money2007-09-12
WATCHNational Bank of CanadaNA-T52.260Good yield/low PE. $2 billion in reset paper that has to be guaranteed to their retail clients. Will probably find out how much they have to make good on in the next month. Intriguing at this level. Could be dead money for awhile.2007-09-12
CommentToronto DominionTD-T71.890Still remains his highest ranked bank and the earnings justify it.2007-09-12
WATCHCitiGroupC-N45.760There is still a lot of unknowns with the US banking system. He would really like to see them own up more on where their derivatives stance is right now. There is not a lot of good news in the short term.2007-09-12
TOP PICKThomson Reuters CorpTRI-T43.460A lot of global portfolios are going to be looking at this as a decent long-term growth name. The merger with Reuters makes a lot of sense. Huge cost synergies. Valuation is attractive. Could become a good growth story.2007-09-12
TOP PICKRogers Communcations (B)RCI.B-T46.800Wireless growth has slowed down a little but they are generating more cash than they ever have done before. Balance sheet is in better shape.2007-09-12
TOP PICKEXFO Electro-Optical Engine Inc.EXFO-Q6.910A lot of their customers are the telecom companies and people that make telecom equipment. Big build is fibre to the home, the last mile, so fibre spending has picked up again. Think they are in for an earnings surge. Stock looks relatively inexpensive.2007-09-12
CommentEquinox MineralsLtd.EQN-T3.880Recently had a move up again. Recently was down to $3 and was attractive on a trading basis. He is not that bullish on copper as he is starting to see inventories build up. If you are going to be in the metals, this is the kind of stock you want to be in2007-09-12
DON'T BUY3M Co.MMM-N89.080This is the quintessential play on the US economy. If the US economy is slowing down in the next couple of quarters, earnings growth will be impacted negatively.2007-09-12
TOP PICKTelus CorpT-T63.540The BCE takeover can be very good for this company. Has had good margin improvements.2007-06-18
HOLDRoyal BankRY-T56.850Missed a little bit on the last quarter, which was the first time in a number of quarters. Still the premier bank in Canada. Expansion into the US has worked out relatively well.2007-06-18
DON'T BUYSherritS-T15.710Acquisition of Dynatec (DY-T) will be a little dilutive in the short-term. Feels the nickel market has some problems ahead and is looking for nickel prices to fall 50% in the next 2 years. Thermal coal is looking very good right now, which might offset some of it.2007-06-18
SELLBombardier Inc (B)BBD.B-T6.530Has disappointed for so many years, but they are starting to get margin improvement. Aerospace cycle is very positive. Multiple is too high. If you own, take some money off the table.2007-06-18
TOP PICKTransat A.T. Inc (B)TRZ.B-T34.140Looking for companies that will benefit from a stronger Cdn$ dollar and travel companies are in that category. He is also expecting oil prices to pull back. Close to $10 a share on the balance sheet.2007-06-18
BUYUranium One Inc.UUU-T14.960There were some worries on the evaluation of their acquisition of a metals/uranium company. Has pull back a bit. Uranium market still looks good in the short-term. When the price turns down, you will have to be very nimble to get out in time.2007-06-18
DON'T BUYCanadian Western BankCWB-T28.5501.62% dividend, which is not very high for a bank. Valuation is a little bit high.2007-06-18
TOP PICKRogers Communcations (B)RCI.B-T47.190Hitting on all cylinders right now. Wireless is good, cable is good in the balance sheet is in better shape than it has ever been.2007-06-18
BUYSunlife FinancialSLF-T49.510Doesn't have huge expectations, but the Lifecos look better with a rising rate environment. Valuation looks good.2007-06-18
DON'T BUYKinross GoldK-T14.110The last Russian acquisition they made was a little worrisome. Outside of that, they are one of the unhedged gold companies. A higher cost producer. He is getting a little nervous about the gold market. Prefers others.2007-06-18
DON'T BUYTeck Cominco Ltd. (B)TCK.B-T49.790Well-run company. Good assets. They are now get into the oil/gas business. Concerned about a drop in the market pulls back.2007-06-18
TOP PICKTelus CorpT-T63.650When BCE (BCE-T) gets bought out, it will be a different kind of company and will be a little bit more reticent to take on risks. Money coming out of BCE will gravitate here. Likes wireless.2007-04-25
TOP PICKCanWest Global Comm.CGS-T10.550Acquired Alliance Atlantis and there are some execution risks. Sum of the pieces is more valuable than where the stock is. Big leverage is the Canadian broadcasting operations. Expect it will sell off some Australian assets.2007-04-25
TOP PICKResearch In MotionRIM-T151.280(A Top Pick Apr 26/06. Up 70%.) Still a good story. Have established fantastic relations with carriers on a global basis. One of the better growth stories.2007-04-25
HOLDTime Warner IncTWX-N21.150Nothing new or exciting happening in the next year. Have to add a few parts to the package in addition to what they did with AOL. Balance sheet is a little bit stretched. Sum of the parts is worth more than the existing stock. Doesn't think there's much downside.2007-04-25
HOLDTrans Canada CorpTRP-T40.140Probably have a little bit more growth than some of their competitors. A lot of the valuation of utilities and pipeline companies are pretty seriously high level. Owns a little for the yield and defensive capabilities.2007-04-25
PAST TOP PICKRogers Communcations (B)RCI.B-T43.160(A Top Pick Apr 26/06. Up 81.4%.) Still sees upside. Balance sheet is getting fixed up. They're spending less and getting more cash. Still likes.2007-04-25
PAST TOP PICKAnvil Mining Ltd.AVM-T17.150(A Top Pick Apr 26/06. Up 101.7%.) Got very nervous about the copper markets and sold its holdings with a 50% gain. Wouldn't own it at this point.2007-04-25
SELLNYSE GroupNYX-N86.430Not comfortable with the valuations with the stock exchanges.2007-04-25
BUYGoldcorp IncG-T28.290Likes this company. Has some decent production and growth. A little worried about the action technically in the gold stocks recently. Gold should be doing better.2007-04-25
CommentLundin Mining Corp.LUN-T14.260Has an interesting strategy and are doing a lot of acquisitions. Replacing the Falconbridges and Incos. Cycle is coming to a peak. There’s a bit of a risk they may have paid up for their acquisitions, but it’s a smart strategy to become a takeover target.2007-04-25
CommentSNC-Lavalin Group Inc.SNC-T31.6002007-04-25
HOLDCanadian National R.R.CNR-T56.250Would be a little cautious over the next year or so. Had a tougher 1st quarter due to labour and weather. Brought the operating ratio down to an unheard-of level. Good long-term growth story, but is concerned about an economic slowdown.2007-04-25
HOLDBCE Inc.BCE-T39.070Expect there will be a deal and it will be north of $40.2007-04-25
SELLStelco IncSTE-T30.550A crummy company. They cannot make money. Fundamentally, it's not a good story.2007-04-25
DON'T BUYNortelNT-T27.000Spending in this sector seems to be decreasing. Have a lot of old legacy business that is going to slowdown.2007-04-25
CommentIntelINTC-Q22.258Semiconductor industry looks like it has gone through its bottom. Last quarter was a little better than expected. Story is looking better. AMD (AMD-N) doesn't seem to be a threat.2007-04-25
SELLAgriumAGU-T46.650Acquired 19.6% of a Chinese specialty fertilizer company, Hanfeng. The agreement looks good on a long-term basis. Stock has had a great run. Can’t see much upside in nitrogen fertilizer in the short term. Trading close to replacement value, which is always a time to get out.2007-04-25
SELLPotash Corp of SaskatchewanPOT-T208.450Overvalued. Can’t see much upside in fertilizer in the short term.2007-04-25
HOLDTalisman EnergyTLM-T21.730Parts are worth more than the present stock price. Showing better production growth than some of the other seniors. Not as tied to higher cost structures.2007-04-25


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