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John Stephenson of First Asset Investment Management
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Opinions from John Stephenson

BUYCrew Energy Inc.CR-T11.600One of the “go to” names. There is a little less attention being paid to the juniors. Would consider this as a core holding. Montney is very attractive. One of the better balance sheets. Great management team. Expecting significant upside.2008-09-22
PARTIAL BUYPetro-CanadaPCA-T37.400Typically disappoints on the production side. Until they can develop and deliver on time and on budget it will be in the penalty box. Trying to turn their refining side around. Have a lot of diverse projects. Can't be taken over by a foreign entity, which eliminates a takeover premium. Feels very comfortable holding at this level and even adding to it.2008-09-22
BUYOilexco IncOIL-T11.650One of the better names. Netbacks are far greater in the north see than in Canada. Have $70, $80, $90 margins. Thinks it will continue to build out its production.2008-09-22
HOLDIteration EnergyITX-T5.390Market is discounting any gas-weighted producer because of concerns that gas may trend sideways or lower. Shale plays are having enormous success, particularly in the US. This name is one of the better ones. Solid management. Doesn't see tremendous downside risk here.2008-09-22
BUYEncana CorpECA-T74.200Splitting into 2 separate companies, oil and gas, which will unlock value. Best-of-breed. A “must have” name in your portfolio.2008-09-22
CommentUTS EnergyUTS-T1.650Announced their project is going to be considerably more expensive than they thought. Dirt-cheap. Trading at about $.20 per barrel of reserve in the ground. Market is currently punishing anything without production visibility and this one is 3 or 4 years away.2008-09-22
BUYGalleon Energy Inc. (A)GO.A-T10.950A really good name. Possible takeover candidate. Has an enormous Montney land position. Good management.2008-09-22
TOP PICKCASHCASH0.000When the water is choppy, you want to stay close to shore. Thanks we are getting closer to a potential turn. Could be 50%-60% of your portfolio.2008-09-22
TOP PICKBaytex Energy TrustBTE.UN-T28.000Heavy oil producer. Almost 11% yield. You get paid to wait. Producing without doing any thermal or steaming and only producing about 12% of its available land, so there is potential for huge reserves booking.2008-09-22
TOP PICKCanadian Natural RsrcsCNQ-T84.470Established producer. A “go to” name internationally. Horizon project is about to come on in the next few months. At $100 oil, it generates about $1 billion in free cash flow. Enormous torque to oil prices.2008-09-22
PAST TOP PICKParamount Energy TrustPMT.UN-T8.350(A Top Pick Aug 22/07. Up 23%.) Great leverage to gas prices and had recommended when gas prices were depressed. Recently sold his holdings. 2008-08-22
PAST TOP PICKFrontier Oil Corp.FTO-N17.480(A Top Pick Aug 22/07. Down 52%.) Refining story.2008-08-22
PAST TOP PICKTrans Canada CorpTRP-T40.180(A Top Pick Aug 22/07. Up 15%.) Continues to offer reasonable upside.2008-08-22
DON'T BUYPetrobank Energy and ResourcesPBG-T44.850An unusual situation. Having some operational problems with their Thai technology. If they are successful, it’s a home run. A lot of valuation is dependent on this process. Also have a large stake in Petrominerales (PMG-T) as well as the Bakken play in Saskatchewan. Probably fairly valued.2008-08-22
CommentAntrim EnergyAEN-T2.560There is a cap on what they can get on oil/gas in Argentina. Also operating in the North Sea. Having 2 separate reservoirs it is hard to see how they can exercise their strategy2008-08-22
BUYPenn West Energy TrustPWT.UN-T30.430Royalty trusts seem to be working very well with an average return of 11%. Have several legs on their stool including enhanced oil recovery, coal methane, tight gas and a tremendous inventory of undeveloped land.2008-08-22
WEAK BUYTalisman EnergyTLM-T18.420Cheap on every basis, cash multiple, earnings multiple, etc. Issue is about strategy. In the penalty box for some time and keeps going back. Seem to be rushing into tight gas, shale plays and North America years after Encana (ECA-T) has been there. Still waiting for a focus strategy to emerge. Shouldn’t be a core holding. 2008-08-22
BUYNAL Oil & Gas TrustNAE.UN-T14.350An excellent trust. Good balance sheet. Hiccup in the 1st quarter but has come on strong. Conservative payout ratio. Starting to expand geographically. One of the better managed trusts.2008-08-22
BUYVero Energy Inc.VRO-T9.520Very low finding/development costs. Great production. Good solid management team. Expects considerable upside. One issue is that a lot of current production is from just a few wells. 2008-08-22
BUYBankers PetroleumBNK-T4.190Albanian oil. Has tremendous upside. Next catalyst will be the reserve estimate due out later in the year.2008-08-22
DON'T BUYHarvest Energy TrustHTE.UN-T20.580Have had horrible performance out of their refinery in Come By Chance. Looking to do a retrofit that is well beyond their scope. Will have to bring in a partner or raise some capital. One of the highest payout ratios and debt levels in royalty trusts.2008-08-22
HOLDUTS EnergyUTS-T3.980This stock will be taken out but the question is when. The big issue is how to get a handle on the cost side. Decent name that is worth holding.2008-08-22
BUYOilexco IncOIL-T14.310Have done a good job in meeting production. Mark thinks that the North field Shelley will bring up production when it comes on in the last part of the 4th quarter. There is a very favourable tax regime in the North Sea.2008-08-22
BUYHusky EnergyHSE-T46.670Expect you could see a 15% to 20% upside from here. They are rolling in cash. White Rose continues to do well. Production is about to start at Tucker, an oil sands project. Recently signed an agreement with the Chinese oil and gas company to explore in the South China Sea.2008-08-22
BUYNuvista Energy LtdNVA-T14.290Predominantly gas weighted. Huge land position. Lots of cash. One of the better management teams. Big enough that they can make acquisitions.2008-08-22
BUYEnerplus Resources FundERF.UN-T42.850Very good name. One of the larger trusts. Has done very well in bringing on production. Diversity of projects such as coal bed methane and enhanced oil recovery. These trusts give a solid yield and it pays to hold onto them. You want to be in the ones that are going to be survivors and have good balance sheets.2008-08-22
BUYIteration EnergyITX-T6.240Good management. Have some Montney lands.2008-08-22
HOLDPengrowth Energy TrustPGF.UN-T18.380Higher payout ratio and have worked hard to bring it down. Likes its enhanced oil recovery. Not his favourite.2008-08-22
BUYConnacher Oil and GasCLL-T3.970Refinery in Montana, oil sands producer and have 14 out of 15 wells on production. Very experienced management team. Not a core position, but something you could buy and will see good value over time.2008-08-22
SELLFirst Calgary PetroleumsFCP-T1.850Big hiccup was financing for the Algerian properties and it looks like they will get it by the end of this year. All their finagling has pushed production to the 2nd, maybe 3rd quarter of 2011. Doesn't look like they are going to have as much natural gas liquids as the market expected. No catalyst for a couple of years.2008-08-22
BUYCrew Energy Inc.CR-T13.600Large Montney acreage plus holdings at Horn River so one of the few juniors that could be a takeover. Good balance sheet.2008-08-22
HOLDPetro-CanadaPCA-T46.750(Market Call Minute.) Company has just demonstrated that they struggle to bring on production and our too down stream weighted.2008-08-22
BUYSuncor Energy IncSU-T60.360(Market Call Minute.) A must-have in your portfolio. Best cost container and best production in the oil sands.2008-08-22
BUYBonterra Energy Income TrustBNE.UN-T36.500(Market Call Minute.) Likes this name. Converting to a corporation so there could be a rough ride going forward but overall very strong. High netbacks. Oil focused.2008-08-22
DON'T BUYDaylight Energy TrustDAY.UN-T12.240(Market Call Minute.) Not a particularly good record of meeting guidance.2008-08-22
TOP PICKCASHCASH0.000Doesn't think the big problems in the US are going to be evaporating soon. Fannie and Freddie are big issues right now. Haven't seen the implications of commercial loan defaults, which is the next leg to drop. Use this to pick up some core holdings and perhaps some juniors for fun.2008-08-22
TOP PICKOpti Canada Inc.OPC-T17.780Oil sands is everything in terms of oil production in Canada. Will start producing from its Long Lake this year. Trading at a massive discount to its NAV. Highly likely it gets taken out.2008-08-22
TOP PICKEncana CorpECA-T75.720This is your gas-go-to-name. Best of breed. I've been at the forefront of strategic thinking for a long time. First into the tight gas plays.2008-08-22
WATCHPetrobank Energy and ResourcesPBG-T37.450Questions if they can keep all the balls in the air. He is somewhat sceptical if they can get some of the issues on their Thai process ironed out. Now in the “wait and see” camp.2008-08-06
BUYBankers PetroleumBNK-T3.890Separated the company into 2 segments, a US focused one and the other an Albanian one. Albanian one has the greater growth profile. Producing around 5300 barrels oil equivalent a day. Likes management. Clean balance sheet.2008-08-06
CommentConnacher Oil and GasCLL-T4.040An emerging oils sands play. Getting some production from its Great Divide project. Has a refining piece in Montana. It is so prospective in terms of its development and so small. History of oil sands has been cost overruns and operation difficulties. Seasoned management team but not as focused as they could be.2008-08-06
BUYPenn West Energy TrustPWT.UN-T30.320Very large oil/gas producer that ranks #5 in the country. In spite of all the volatility, royalty trusts have done pretty well because you are getting paid to wait. Because of its size, scale and experience it should be a successful corporation when trusts have to change. 13% yield.2008-08-06
DON'T BUYTalisman EnergyTLM-T18.250Inexpensive. Strategy has become a little more focused. Widely rumoured as a possible takeover target. New CFO typically is a sign of strategy building rather than a sales strategy. Little bit higher in their operating costs, which is why they look so cheap on a cash flow basis. Acquisition in Kurdistan is a huge issue in credibility too. 2008-08-06
BUYCanadian Natural RsrcsCNQ-T79.280Believes that oil demand is growing globally compared to North America and this one is at a good price.2008-08-06
HOLDFirst Calgary PetroleumsFCP-T2.310Have a large potential find that they need to develop and it’s a financing issue. Whether they can make a go of that is an open question and they probably will. It’s going to be a little bit of tough sledding.2008-08-06
TOP PICKCASHCASH0.000Looking at really difficult times in the market. US have got huge problems. Banking situation is more serious than people realize. Fed’s balance sheet is starting to look worse than CitiGroup’s (C-N) as they are exchanging treasuries for garbage mortgages.2008-08-06
TOP PICKEncana CorpECA-T73.910Best in breed. Likes their new strategy of splitting the company, which will unlock value over time.2008-08-06
TOP PICKOpti Canada Inc.OPC-T18.210De-risking of Long Lake, their oil sands piece. Thinks it’s an acquisition target. Dirt-cheap. Will be producing by the end of this year.2008-08-06
TOP PICKCASHCASH0.000Facing an unprecedented challenge right now with the global financial system. All of the countries have been working to try and shore up the US financial system. Thinks the problem is far greater than we are being led to believe.2008-07-16
TOP PICKOpti Canada Inc.OPC-T22.320An oil sands name that is about to start producing. Trading at a discount to NAV of about 42%. Expects this will be acquired.2008-07-16
TOP PICKTriStar Oil & GasTOG-T18.680Good fundamentals. Not that expensive relative to others. In the Bakken oil region of Saskatchewan. Could be a candidate for a takeover. Have a good record of exploring.2008-07-16
BUYTrans Canada CorpTRP-T37.950Utility group in general has been a bit weak lately. Have done a good job. In the penalty box because of the asset they bought from Keystone but believes this will ultimately be a good transaction. Good management.2008-07-16
BUYCrew Energy Inc.CR-T18.290With Duvernay Oil (DDV-T) being taken over by Shell, Crew Energy (CR-T), Galleon Energy (GO.A-T) or Storm Exploration (SEO-T) would be good replacements with acreage in the Montney region. This one has the distinction of being the only junior in the Horn River region.2008-07-16
BUYGalleon Energy Inc. (A)GO.A-T17.980With Duvernay Oil (DDV-T) being taken over by Shell, Crew Energy (CR-T), Galleon Energy (GO.A-T) or Storm Exploration (SEO-T) would be good replacements with acreage in the Montney region.2008-07-16
BUYStorm Exploration Inc.SEO-T18.430With Duvernay Oil (DDV-T) being taken over by Shell, Crew Energy (CR-T), Galleon Energy (GO.A-T) or Storm Exploration (SEO-T) would be good replacements with acreage in the Montney region.2008-07-16
PARTIAL BUYConnacher Oil and GasCLL-T3.850Good name. Did a measured approach to their oil sands development. Have a refining piece in Montana as well as a stake in Petrolifera Petroleum (PDP-T). Wouldn't be his top pick. Until they get further down the road, it's a little early to throw a ton of money at it. Oil sands projects tend to be problem plagued and expensive.2008-07-16
BUYHusky EnergyHSE-T42.140Thinks it has turned the corner. Had a few weak quarters in production but is starting to fire on all cylinders. The oil sands piece is getting more visible.2008-07-16
HOLDEnsign Resource Service GroupESI-T23.660The biggest issue with the services sector right now is that they have had a very good run off a very low base. The time to look at them is in the late fall period just before they get into the drilling season.2008-07-16
HOLDCalfrac Well Services LtdCFW-T29.730The biggest issue with the services sector right now is that they have had a very good run off a very low base. The time to look at them is in the late fall period just before they get into the drilling season.2008-07-16
BUYCanadian Natural RsrcsCNQ-T89.650Very levered to oil as well as being one of the larger players in gas in Western Canada. What is very attractive right now is that its oil sands piece is almost complete. An attractive entry point and a great name to own.2008-07-16
TOP PICKOpti Canada Inc.OPC-T24.920Oil sands producer. Been in the penalty box because of disappointing pilot results. Now have 30 well pairs steaming away. 35% discount to net asset value. Will probably get acquired. Cheap.2008-06-16
TOP PICKTriStar Oil & GasTOG-T20.99090% oil. Trades at a discount as opposed to its peers. A Bakken play. Possible acquisition.2008-06-16
TOP PICKSuncor Energy IncSU-T64.360Should be a core holding in the portfolio along with Encana (ECA-T). Almost a doubling of production over the next 4 years or so. Great cost control.2008-06-16
PAST TOP PICKNexen IncNXY-T41.390(A Top Pick Aug 8/07. Up 36%.) Had been really cheap. Brought on Buzzard in the North Sea, which has been a real cash cow. 50% of the oil sands play, Long Lake looks like it is finally coming of age.2008-06-16
PAST TOP PICKDevon Energy CorpDVN-N116.460(A Top Pick Aug 8/07. Up 50%.) Gas weighted. Really good reserve growth. Best Reserves in the US. Still going higher.2008-06-16
PAST TOP PICKVermilion Energy TrustVET.UN-T44.750(A Top Pick Aug 8/07. Up 24%.) No longer has a position. A Hold at the current time.2008-06-16
HOLDBow Valley EnergyBVX-T6.050Had a few production misses. Properties are not as good as the other North Sea junior, Oilexco (OIL-T) but it has tremendous netbacks (higher prices per barrel). Sees strong upside in this one.2008-06-16
BUYPenn West Energy TrustPWT.UN-T34.760Attractively valued and should go higher. One of the largest holders of Legacy Oil reservoirs. With enhanced recovery from CO2 flooding they are able to increase recovery. Should go higher.2008-06-16
HOLDTalisman EnergyTLM-T24.190Poised to move a little higher. New management has developed a good strategic plan. Return on capital and other metrics are not as high as others.2008-06-16
BUYOilexco IncOIL-T18.250Reserve bookings have basically doubled. Production is coming on very strong and looking to double the Shelby field. Good diversity of projects. Very high netbacks.2008-06-16
HOLDPetrobank Energy and ResourcesPBG-T52.430Their new technology Thai appears to be proving out. Until there is some clarity around the new process he would treat it as a Hold. Colombia holdings are doing really well. Along with their Saskatchewan Bakken play.2008-06-16
BUYDuvernay Oil CorpDDV-T62.900Right place at the right time. (Montne play in B.C.) Very good at acquiring land. Too important not to get taken out. Sees significant upside.2008-06-16
BUYCrescent Point Energy TrustCPG.UN-T40.390Sitting on significant acreage in Saskatchewan’s Bakken oil play.2008-06-16
HOLDParamount ResourcesPOU-T17.850A decent name. Has stayed down because it is just not in some of the really hot plays where expectation is much greater than people thought.2008-06-16
CommentTrinidad DrillingTDG-T14.000Good, but not great. A Hold, maybe even a Sell. Where the world is going, you need to offer a technological solution to get a premium valuation in a service area. Fairly highly indebted.2008-06-16
BUYPainted Pony PetroleumPPY.A-X7.800Reasonable chance it gets taken out. Pretty good land position and decent balance sheet. Showing some strong production growth and one of their positions is in the Bakken area.2008-06-16
HOLDPetro-CanadaPCA-T58.690Has had a pretty decent run of late. Has really struggled in terms of its production side. Has disappointed investors for some time. Getting it back together but will never be the home run that some others are.2008-06-16
HOLDFirst Calgary PetroleumsFCP-T2.490Infrastructure in Algeria is a bit on the weak side. Their best bet on marketability is to liquefy it and send it out as LNG. Huge development. Some uncertainty around financing.2008-06-16
BUYImperial OilIMO-T57.790(Market Call Minute.) Conservative but great returns.2008-06-16
BUYHusky EnergyHSE-T50.000(Market Call Minute.) Strong production growth from the east coast and increasing production from the oil sands.2008-06-16
SELLDaylight Energy TrustDAY.UN-T11.890(Market Call Minute.) Small. Balance sheet problems. Going nowhere.2008-06-16
HOLDUTS EnergyUTS-T6.000(Market Call Minute.) No visibility in terms of production until about 2012.2008-06-16
HOLDValero Energy CorpVLO-N44.120(Market Call Minute.) Too much gas inventory and high fuel prices means margins are weak.2008-06-16
WEAK BUYValero Energy CorpVLO-N48.100A good entry point. Crude prices are very high. There is an imbalance in supply and demand hurting the sector. Coming into the driving season. The second quarter should be significantly stronger than the first. 2008-03-25
BUY on WEAKNESSCanadian Oil Sands TrustCOS.UN-T40.930A great way to play oil. Not a bad time to dip your toe in, $36-37 would be a little more attractive as an entry point. They have a dominant position. Oil prices should creep up.2008-03-25
HOLDTransalta CorpTA-T30.900This name is a hold here. Not overly optimistic about entry here. Power prices have been weak in Alberta, which is their dominant market. 2008-03-25
DON'T BUYHarvest Energy TrustHTE.UN-T22.570Think very highly of management. Having fairly strong production declines, struggling to keep production up in their traditional upstream business. They may potentially cut the distribution. 2008-03-25
VAGUETalisman EnergyTLM-T16.760There is a lack of clear strategic direction from management. Dirt cheap. There is no comfort in this company. 2008-03-25
SELLCalfrac Well Services LtdCFW-T21.340You would want to sell at significant position at this point. There wont be tremendous upside at this level. 2008-03-25
WAITPetro-CanadaPCA-T43.580Fort hills is going to suck a lot of cash out of this company in the next 12 months or so. There is nothing else kicking in to bump cash flows up. It’s a value trap at this point. It’s cheap. 2008-03-25
TOP PICKA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA Commentary0.020Cash- Defensive. There’s going to be a huge buying opportunity for commodities later in the year or 2009, this will be pre-empted by a big drop. There are big problems in the U.S, and it will take time to work itself out. Be in cash so you can pick up stocks when things get really cheap. 2008-03-25
TOP PICKEOG Resources IncEOG-N116.220Has virtually no debt. Is a first mover particularly in gas plays. They are leaders in horizontal drilling. Have very strong organic growth. Not very inexpensive. They have the tightest ship in a relative market. 2008-03-25
TOP PICKTransocean Inc.RIG-N131.860Active in the deep offshore market. Having trouble getting newer rigs out into the sector. A lot of the fleet is in production right now. Purchased it today.2008-03-25
HOLDUTS EnergyUTS-T5.400Good company. Decent land positions. Would rather buy Suncor.2008-03-25
TOP PICKCASHCASH25.650With what is going on in the US, it is mind-boggling that the market has held in so well. Worst is not over yet. Bullish on resource stocks, particularly energy and oil, he thinks there will be a pullback once more bad news comes in the 2nd quarter when 1st quarter earnings start getting announced. That will be an opportunity to start picking away at some great quality Canadian energy names.2008-03-05
TOP PICKTesoro Petroleum CorpTSO-N35.900A US based independent refiner with some gas stations. Predominantly on the west coast, which generally has the highest refining margins due to the complexity because of California legislation. It has come off pretty hard. There is seasonality to refining stocks, peaking generally in the 2nd quarter. This is one you Buy now and Sell in May/June. Could possibly give you 35% to 40% in a relatively short period of time.2008-03-05
TOP PICKMarathon OilMRO-N53.640Has a fair component that is refining. Also has several growth engines including Norway, Equatorial Guinea and the Gulf of Mexico. Production is coming on. Dirt-cheap. Trades at about 3.2X forward cash flow multiple, which is cheap.2008-03-05
DON'T BUYTotal Energy Services TrustTOT.UN-T7.550Generally avoid owning oil services. The Canadian companies generally trade at a premium to the US, plus it's a trust and they have to distribute. Also, producers have been cutting back on expenditures.2008-03-05
DON'T BUYSavanna Energy ServicesSVY-T16.860This is probably the weakest of the group. Has the highest earnings cash flow multiple and is primarily domestic focused. Doesn't see any upside. He would prefer to look at Saxon Energy (SES-T) or Calfrac (CFW-T).2008-03-05
BUYCanadian Natural RsrcsCNQ-T76.45070% of its production comes from the province of Alberta so it doesn't have a lot of diversity and is subject to the royalty rates. That has affected gas very negatively. However, it has some visibility with the Horizon oil sands project, which looks like it is finally going to come.2008-03-05

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