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| John Stephenson of First Asset Investment Management |
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| John Stephenson's website |
| HOLD | Talisman Energy | TLM-T | 17.990 | A Buy but not a Screaming Buy. Treat as a value stock. Have lately been focusing on unconventional gas. Still need to put up some good numbers. | 2010-01-22 | ||
| SELL | Husky Energy | HSE-T | 27.650 | Hard to see a strong catalyst going forward. Will probably move up higher with oil prices but you could get more bang for your buck. Have a lot of exposure to refining, which is where you don't want to be these days. | 2010-01-22 | ||
| HOLD | Petrobank Energy and Resources | PBG-T | 53.030 | Gives indirect exposure to the Bakkens through PetroBakken (PBN-T). Relatively fairly valued. | 2010-01-22 | ||
| Comment | Precision Drilling Corp. | PD.UN-T | 9.080 | Did reasonably well in the last 7-8 months. A little bit of upside left to go. Good news is integration of Grey Wolf acquisition, updating its fleet with deeper rigs and have a lot of assets in the West. Has a little bit of room to go but he is sceptical about natural gas prices holding beyond the next few months. | 2010-01-22 | ||
| SELL | Bankers Petroleum | BNK-T | 6.420 | World-class field in Albania. Has had a heck of a run and is trading at about 160% of net asset value. If you own, consider taking your profits. | 2010-01-22 | ||
| BUY | Petrominerales Ltd. | PMG-T | 19.960 | Reasonable growth ahead of it. Could be a takeout candidate. | 2010-01-22 | ||
| HOLD | Niko Resources | NKO-T | 107.500 | Internationally focused in offshore India. Also building a pretty big reserve base in Indonesia. A little stretched at this level. | 2010-01-22 | ||
| HOLD | Gran Tierra Energy Inc. | GTE-T | 5.150 | Good management. Recent drill results were a bit of a disappointment. A “show me” story right now. | 2010-01-22 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | BlackPearl Resources Inc | PXX-T | 2.530 | Very good management team. Smart and well connected. Pretty good land position. Fully valued so wait for a pullback of 15%. | 2010-01-22 | ||
| WATCH | Vero Energy Inc. | VRO-T | 6.530 | Likes the name. You could buy but he would wait for further results in the Cardium play. Very good management. | 2010-01-22 | ||
| HOLD | Galleon Energy Inc. | GO-T | 5.870 | A “show me” story. Evenly weighted between gas and oil. Had some good oil results from the Doik (?) play, which is good. | 2010-01-22 | ||
| TOP PICK | Trans Canada Corp | TRP-T | 34.960 | (A Top Pick Jan 2/09. Up 8.29%.) This is a time to being a little more defensive. Basically hasn't moved in over a year. Has Keystone pipeline coming on so it's getting into the oil transportation business, which will start impacting it meaningfully this quarter. Can finance all its growth through internal cash generation. | 2010-01-22 | ||
| TOP PICK | Canadian Oil Sands Trust | COS.UN-T | 28.330 | Expecting oil to move higher. Had some operational hiccups at Syncrude in the 3rd quarter but that is behind them now. 4.8% yield. | 2010-01-22 | ||
| TOP PICK | Suncor Energy Inc | SU-T | 35.200 | This is a benchmark name. The rest of the world is growing, even if the US isn't and that is ultimately good for oil and oil sands. | 2010-01-22 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Transalta Corp | TA-T | 22.640 | (A Top Pick Jan 2/09. Down 4.17%.) Sold a lot of his holdings. A play on power prices. Correlated with gas prices so if you think gas is going up you could play this. | 2010-01-22 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | CASH | CASH | 0.000 | (A Top Pick Jan 2/09.) Only about 2%-3% in cash now. | 2010-01-22 | ||
| SELL | HBP NYMEX Nat'l Gas Bull+ | HNU-T | 12.140 | A lot of these products have daily rebalancing. While the concept is great, it is the price path that really impacts you. | 2010-01-22 | ||
| TOP PICK | Suncor Energy Inc | SU-T | 36.290 | World-class management team and assets with visible growth ahead. Doesn't expect any climate change results will affect it too much. Their average cost of production is only about $22 a barrel. The integration with PetroCanada is largely behind them. | 2009-12-11 | ||
| TOP PICK | Imperial Oil | IMO-T | 39.150 | One of the best operators in general. Incredible profitability with a pristine balance sheet. Doesn't think investors are seeing the possible growth from Kearl and Cold Lake, which should be as early as next year. | 2009-12-11 | ||
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| TOP PICK | Canadian Natural Rsrcs | CNQ-T | 68.770 | Steam assisted gravity drainage potential could substantially increase their production. 40 to 50 year reserve life with no declines. | 2009-12-11 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Trans Canada Corp | TRP-T | 34.970 | (A Top Pick Dec 3/08. Up 10.58%.) Still a Buy. | 2009-12-11 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Transalta Corp | TA-T | 22.100 | (A Top Pick Dec 3/08. Up 8.9%.) Have lightened up on this one and buying more of TransCanada (TRP-T). | 2009-12-11 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | CASH | CASH | 0.000 | (A Top Pick Dec 3/08. N/A.) | 2009-12-11 | ||
| BUY | Vermilion Energy Trust | VET.UN-T | 30.300 | One of the better names in its space. Good geographic diversity including France, Netherlands, Australia and Libya. The latter has been its problem lately. | 2009-12-11 | ||
| WATCH | Teekay Shipping Corp. | TK-N | 23.330 | Interesting name. Fair amount of LNG shipping, which, as far as North America is concerned, won't accelerate very much other than exporting. Need to see economic growth pick up before you see oil/gas cargoes moving. | 2009-12-11 | ||
| HOLD | BlackPearl Resources Inc | PXX-T | 2.410 | Benchmark “junior” companies that he likes are Crew (CR-T), Celtic (CLT-T) and Storm (SEO-T). He would hold this with the caveat that it is a very small name. | 2009-12-11 | ||
| BUY | Crescent Point Energy Corp | CPG-T | 38.630 | Have done everything right from the beginning. Good management. 89% oil weighted in the Bakkens, which is the right focus. | 2009-12-11 | ||
| BUY | Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp | AQN-T | 3.750 | 7% debenture due 2017. This would be a very solid way to go as an investment. While the name has had some problems in the past, it has recently been upgraded by a number of brokerage houses. | 2009-12-11 | ||
| HOLD | Galleon Energy Inc. | GO-T | 4.630 | Disappointed in the last year or so by its inability to meet production forecasts. Becoming a “show me” story. | 2009-12-11 | ||
| HOLD | Superior Plus Corp | SPB-T | 13.780 | Dividend should be sustainable. This is a good time to hold it because propane tends to do well in the wintertime. Had some problems earlier on and didn't have a focused management team but looking pretty good right now. | 2009-12-11 | ||
| BUY | Penn West Energy Trust | PWT.UN-T | 17.730 | 5th largest production in Canada. How do you get growth in a company this large but lately have been looking at Pembina Cardium using horizontal drilling as applied to oil. If projections are correct, they could move the needle significantly. | 2009-12-11 | ||
| SELL | Altagas Services | ALA.UN-T | 17.630 | Planning on converting to a corp at the beginning of the 2nd half of 2010 and looking at going from 90% payout to 40%-50%. If this happens, the dividend won't be safe. Not thrilled with the business model. | 2009-12-11 | ||
| BUY | Cenovus Energy | CVE-T | 25.890 | 1st class company. Fairly valued at around $29 so isn't expecting tremendous upside. Relatively small at 225,000 barrels a day. Oil weighted. Christina Lake and Foster Creek are superb assets and the gas assets are very inexpensive to operate. Good management. Wonders if US investors will continue to hold. | 2009-12-11 | ||
| TOP PICK | Canadian Natural Rsrcs | CNQ-T | 72.090 | One of the few that can increase oil production by about 10% in 2010 and 12%-13% in 2011 while US comparables are struggling to get 3%-4%. $6.9 billion cash flow, mainly because of Horizon. | 2009-11-09 | ||
| TOP PICK | Talisman Energy | TLM-T | 19.110 | Trading around 4 EBITDA while peers are 6.3. Has upside into the low to mid-$20’s. Have a strategy coalescing around North America, the North Sea and Southeast Asia and are starting to hit their numbers and their stride. | 2009-11-09 | ||
| TOP PICK | Occidental Petroleum Corp | OXY-N | 83.050 | One US oil that has a lot of growth globally. Large landholder in California. Proven track record of taking a mature basin and wringing every last drop out of it. The most torque name to oil available. | 2009-11-09 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Suncor Energy Inc | SU-T | 37.350 | (A Top Pick Oct 22/08. Up 41.2% not including dividends.) Lagged the group in performance. Intending to pay everything through cash flow and not lever up the balance sheet. | 2009-11-09 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Trans Canada Corp | TRP-T | 32.240 | (A Top Pick Oct 22/08. Down 2.5%.) Solid dividend play. Last 6-7 months investors have been piling into risks and you can make a very good argument that you might see a return to yield. Increasingly becoming a power weighted business. Cheap. 4.7% yield. | 2009-11-09 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | CASH | CASH | 0.000 | (A Top Pick Oct 22/08. N/A.) Dropped his holdings from about 50% to only about 3%. Thinks the economy is now recovering. | 2009-11-09 | ||
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| BUY | Fairborne Energy Ltd. | FEL-T | 4.830 | Gas weighted. Good name and has decent opportunities to turn the register a little. A lot of little catalyst projects that’s doing some infill drilling. In terms of resource base it has one of the biggest opportunities in the juniors. | 2009-11-09 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Precision Drilling Corp. | PD.UN-T | 7.570 | Has cleaned up its balance sheets and done a lot of things right but think it's fairly valued here. | 2009-11-09 | ||
| BUY | Encana Corp | ECA-T | 62.770 | Will be splitting Dec between oil and gas. Crude will be under Cenovus (CVE-T), which he thinks is fully valued at around $26-$27 but likes their gas because they did an incredible job of hedging and have locked in profits. | 2009-11-09 | ||
| WEAK BUY | Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp. | PRE-T | 14.330 | Predominantly gas play in Colombia. Good upside. Colombia is turning out to be one of the most attractive international areas to go for a junior company. If you own, consider taking some profits. | 2009-11-09 | ||
| Comment | HBP NYMEX Nat'l Gas Bull+ | HNU-T | 10.500 | Natural Gas Bull+ ETF. If you want to hold for a day or less, it is perfect. Structured to rebalance every day, which doesn't mean you necessarily get a double. E.G. If you buy 100 units and it goes down 10%, you have 90 units. If it then goes up 10% you end up with 99 units. Prefers one that is not rebalance every day. | 2009-11-09 | ||
| HOLD | Penn West Energy Trust | PWT.UN-T | 18.790 | 5th largest oil/gas producer in the country with about 170,000 daily barrels of oil. Has struggled lately but is now focusing on horizontal drilling on the oil side. | 2009-11-09 | ||
| SPECULATIVE BUY | Connacher Oil and Gas | CLL-T | 0.990 | Planning on doubling production in 2010. Attractive company and has done a lot of things right in order to get its financial house in order. In 2011 or so you will see some real impact on some of the stuff they are doing with more of their oil sands production coming on. | 2009-11-09 | ||
| PARTIAL BUY | Baytex Energy Trust | BTE.UN-T | 27.870 | Great oil sands property, a cyclic steam, which is very attractive from a cost standpoint. One of the more conservatively managed trusts. Has had a great run. Wouldn't buy aggressively. | 2009-11-09 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Husky Energy | HSE-T | 28.600 | Attractive from a valuation standpoint and looks reasonably cheap but has too much exposure to US downstream refining and refining is bad. | 2009-11-09 | ||
| BUY | Schlumberger Ltd. | SLB-N | 65.130 | Global oilfield service company. Do very complicated downhole techniques, moving the drill bit in three dimensions and guiding it. Very attractive business. | 2009-11-09 | ||
| SELL | Iteration Energy | ITX-T | 1.190 | Insider buying, which is positive. Good management team. Was slow getting into resource plays and then got caught up in some debt related issues. Thinks those things have been resolved. However gas weighted and not in the shale or resource to a large degree. Junior gas has come way too far too fast. | 2009-11-09 | ||
| HOLD | NAL Oil & Gas Trust | NAE.UN-T | 12.180 | Very attractive yield at 9% and relatively undervalued. A smaller trust but have some good drilling and starting to show good results, particularly in the Cardium play. | 2009-11-09 | ||
| HOLD | Nuvista Energy Ltd | NVA-T | 12.600 | Decent management team. Track record of consolidation. About 30,000 barrels a day of production but its gas weighted and he expects a depressed gas market. If it breaks down on a technical support bases, he would Sell. | 2009-11-09 | ||
| HOLD | Bonavista Energy Trust | BNP.UN-T | 22.400 | One of the better names and he doesn't see a problem with the 8.6% distributions getting cut imminently. Very good operating metrics. | 2009-11-09 | ||
| BUY | Vero Energy Inc. | VRO-T | 4.090 | Small but has a pretty good balance sheet and is a low-cost producer. Pretty good drill results. | 2009-11-09 | ||
| HOLD | Daylight Energy Trust | DAY.UN-T | 9.640 | Acquisition of Highpine gave them a 30% weighting in oil. With their CapX plans they are going to be north of 100% payout ratio, which is a little concerning. Oil side is good. | 2009-11-09 | ||
| BUY | Provident Energy Trust | PVE.UN-T | 7.300 | Real transformative story that is looking more impressive all the time. Initially a collection of “not so great” gas assets in the US with a decent set of midstream businesses where they take the liquids etc. out of the gas and this has turned out to be an absolute home run for them. | 2009-11-09 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Crescent Point Energy Corp | CPG-T | 37.800 | One of the best names. Hard to find a good name in conventional light oil in Canada. Lands are in the best spot in the Bakkens. Very light oil which gets a premium. | 2009-11-09 | ||
| HOLD | Galleon Energy Inc. | GO-T | 6.190 | (Market Call Minute.) Has disappointed perennially. | 2009-11-09 | ||
| HOLD | Baker-Hughes | BHI-N | 43.060 | (Market Call Minute.) Predominantly land drilling. | 2009-11-09 | ||
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| HOLD | Trilogy Energy Trust | TET.UN-T | 8.250 | (Market Call Minute.) Gas weighted and no clear path forward. | 2009-11-09 | ||
| BUY | Inter Pipeline Fund | IPL.UN-T | 10.520 | (Market Call Minute.) Large oil transporter. | 2009-11-09 | ||
| BUY | Delphi Energy Corp. | DEE-T | 1.720 | (Market Call Minute.) Small at 6800 BOE’s a day that has a lot of catalysts for growth. | 2009-11-09 | ||
| BUY | Ivanhoe Mines | IVN-T | 13.420 | (Market Call Minute.) Risky but attractive. | 2009-11-09 | ||
| TOP PICK | Canadian Natural Rsrcs | CNQ-T | 73.440 | (A Top Pick Sept 22/08. Down 13%.) Likes its torque to the Horizon oil sands project. Has completed phase 1 and has done really well. Coming in on time, on budget and with production upside. Will have a lot of growth. | 2009-09-28 | ||
| TOP PICK | Encana Corp | ECA-T | 61.570 | Will trade higher because it will give clarity between the 2 asset bases. Has done everything right. Have land holdings in all the hot plays. They had just smartly and are up over $1.6 billion in cash flow this year. After the split he would be inclined to keep the gas. | 2009-09-28 | ||
| TOP PICK | Hess Corp. | HES-N | 54.690 | Balance sheet is strong and you are basically getting the exploration potential for free. Has exploration upside in Brazil, Ghana, Libya, Australia etc. | 2009-09-28 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | CASH | CASH | 0.000 | (A Top Pick Sept 22/08. N/A.) Recovery is happening so you can now be fully invested so you should be rotating out of cash. | 2009-09-28 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Baytex Energy Trust | BTE.UN-T | 23.910 | (A Top Pick Sept 22/08. Down 4.75%.) One of the more solid names. Sold in March because of concerns about debt and refinancing. Held in fairly well because it is heavy oil and differentials have been narrowing considerably. | 2009-09-28 | ||
| HOLD | Questerre Energy | QEC-T | 2.500 | The issue on gas is how long can a company sustain operations at the low price. They need a price of around $6. With $57 million cash on the balance sheet it will be able to ride out the storm. | 2009-09-28 | ||
| HOLD | Petro Andina Resources | PAR-T | 10.280 | In the international space. Looks attractive. Could see it as a takeover target at some point. | 2009-09-28 | ||
| BUY | Altagas Services | ALA.UN-T | 17.360 | Managed fairly conservatively. 60% of the business is gathering and midstream and midstream has been very profitable. Relatively safe. Management has indicated they will be paying a dividend of about the same level after they convert to a corp. | 2009-09-28 | ||
| HOLD | Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd | AAV-T | 7.350 | Historically has issued a lot of convertible debt but is paying it down and cleaning up its balance sheet. Direction is positive. | 2009-09-28 | ||
| HOLD | Enerplus Resources Fund | ERF.UN-T | 24.400 | One of the largest companies of its kind. Production of just under 100,000 BOE a day, which is at the upper end. An improving visibility story. | 2009-09-28 | ||
| PARTIAL SELL | Paramount Resources | POU-T | 14.260 | Hard to understand because it has a relatively high cost and convoluted ownership structure. Fairly gassy weighted. Doesn't seem to have any obvious catalyst to move it higher. Big upswing recently and he would be tempted to sell half your holdings. | 2009-09-28 | ||
| SPECULATIVE BUY | Rock Energy Inc. | RE-T | 2.650 | Equally weighted between gas and oil. A trader. If they can turn this name around quickly it would be good but wouldn't be a Hold. Not enough production to make it work. | 2009-09-28 | ||
| BUY | Petrominerales Ltd. | PMG-T | 14.820 | Of all the Colombian oil/gas plays, this has probably the most potential upside in terms of its drilling inventory. This would be a Buy and Hold. | 2009-09-28 | ||
| SPECULATIVE BUY | Connacher Oil and Gas | CLL-T | 1.030 | Speculative buy because it is a smaller cap name and smaller producer. Does have conventional production as well as oil sands in which 1st phase has been completed. Working on a 2nd phase with cash to see it through. Could benefit from a land grab in the oil sands as things start to recover globally. | 2009-09-28 | ||
| BUY | Nexen Inc | NXY-T | 24.750 | Classic value play. Inexpensive on cash flow metrics, etc because they typically disappoint on production and earnings guidance 3 times out of 4. They are cheap enough that you can buy but they have had some issues. Could be some weakness in the short term. | 2009-09-28 | ||
| HOLD | Gran Tierra Energy Inc. | GTE-T | 4.570 | 3 months ago it had a very promising future but it has had a really good run. | 2009-09-28 | ||
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| BUY | Daylight Energy Trust | DAY.UN-T | 8.450 | Acquiring Highpine (HPX-T), which is generally perceived as a good move as it gives them light oil. Solid management, which has hedged when it should and is defensive. 11.3% distribution. | 2009-09-28 | ||
| HOLD | Bankers Petroleum | BNK-T | 4.310 | Good name. Gets 50%-60% of Brent (?) so it gets world prices for its heavy oil in Albania. Has had a good run so over the next 6 months his outlook would be sideways. Some upside but not tremendous. Good long-term hold. | 2009-09-28 | ||
| Comment | Compton Petroleum | CMT-T | 1.380 | One of his least favourite names. Will probably be okay because they recently went to the market and raised some money. Would be cautious on this name. If there is a little bit of lift, he would be inclined to sell. | 2009-09-28 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Transocean Inc. | RIG-N | 84.350 | This is the leader in terms of the complex semi-submersibles for deep shore applications. If you're comfortable with the currency risk, it looks like a good name to hold. Pretty much of a monopoly on the rigs and are booked years in advance. If it drops after the earnings, pick up more. | 2009-09-28 | ||
| BUY | Crew Energy Inc. | CR-T | 8.420 | Good balance sheet and management team. It will be a consolidator. | 2009-09-28 | ||
| BUY | Husky Energy | HSE-T | 30.370 | Have some opportunities with their Southeast Asian fields to further delineate them and show some good production in the future. East Coast also seems to be a positive. Refining is a slight negative but not a huge one. Low downside risk and reasonable upside. | 2009-09-28 | ||
| BUY | Crescent Point Energy Corp | CPG-T | 36.850 | In terms of income oriented oil/gas companies, this is probably one of the best if not the best. Consolidated at play in Saskatchewan in the Bakken light oil area. Recently added another play nearby as well. Considers it a core holding. 7.5% yield. | 2009-09-28 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Trinidad Drilling | TDG-T | 6.750 | Drillers have done reasonably well lately, which is surprising because all the fundamentals of natural gas are pretty poor for drillers. This one has a complex suite in that it can go deeper as well as to directional drilling. Has a reasonably high level of debt. | 2009-09-28 | ||
| HOLD | Paramount Energy Trust | PMT.UN-T | 5.220 | (Market Call Minute.) Has done a few things well with the Profound acquisition but is gas weighted with a short reserve life. | 2009-09-28 | ||
| HOLD | Imperial Oil | IMO-T | 41.210 | (Market Call Minute.) Solid, solid company. | 2009-09-28 | ||
| BUY | Trans Canada Corp | TRP-T | 33.200 | (Market Call Minute.) Great infrastructure name. | 2009-09-28 | ||
| BUY | Arc Energy Trust | AET.UN-T | 19.430 | (Market Call Minute.) Longer-term Buy. One of the most conservative names. Well managed but a little gassy weighted and increasingly so. | 2009-09-28 | ||
| SELL | Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp | AQN-T | 3.600 | (Market Call Minute.) Thinks the management team is weak and he doesn't like the collection of assets. | 2009-09-28 | ||
| Comment | Bankers Petroleum | BNK-T | 3.740 | Heavy oil play in Albania. Caller has warrants due to expire and is thinking of selling those, waiting for a downturn in shoulder season and then picking up longer-term warrants 2 years out. Answer: A reasonable strategy as the stock price is fairly valued at this level. Currently producing about 6400 BOEs a day and ramping up to 8200 by year-end. Wouldn't rush out and buy the stock today. | 2009-08-21 | ||
| DON'T BUY | HBP NYMEX Oil Bull+ E.T.F. | HOU-T | 9.570 | NYMEX Oil Bull+ ETF. Had owned this but sold it in frustration because it re-balanced daily. If you went from $50 oil to $75 oil, that would be terrific if you got direct exposure, but what happens is that your price goes up and down on the way. | 2009-08-21 | ||
| HOLD | Canadian Oil Sands Trust | COS.UN-T | 28.750 | Dividend isn't great but they did raise it recently. This is a direct leverage to oil prices and says he is positive on oil, you should continue to hold. You could also consider Baytex Energy (BTE.UN-T) or Arc Energy (AET.UN-T), which is a little more gas weighted but a well managed trust. | 2009-08-21 | ||
| HOLD | Paramount Energy Trust | PMT.UN-T | 4.780 | This company is pretty much in shallow gas and gas prices have just gone from bad to worse. If things were to deteriorate further, a distribution cut could happen. | 2009-08-21 | ||
| Comment | TriStar Oil & Gas | TOG-T | 15.340 | Petrobank (PBG-T) has a buyout on it at $14.75 and it closed today at $15.34. It may be because people think a better offer may come but he doesn't think it is too likely. He recommends tendering to the offer, as it is very reasonable. New combined entity will be a good one to own. | 2009-08-21 | ||
| BUY | Gran Tierra Energy | GTE-A | 4.000 | Colombia seems to be very solid from an oil/gas perspective. This company just keeps banging out the production and has been fairly steady and consistent. Thinks there is substantial growth coming in production. | 2009-08-21 | ||
| WAIT | Petrobank Energy and Resources | PBG-T | 40.290 | Becoming a more interesting story. Bidding for Tristar (TOG-T) and hopefully will spin that and its Canadian unit into the separate company called Petrobakken Energy. Wait for all of this to happen before taking a position. | 2009-08-21 | ||
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| BUY | Total SA | TOT-N | 57.080 | An integrated oil company not based in North America. This one looks interesting and seems to have reasonable growth. | 2009-08-21 |