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| Joanne A. Hruska, CFA of Aston Hill Financial |
|---|
| Suite 3400, Bow Valley Square II |
| 205 - 5th Avenue S.W. |
| Calgary AB |
| T2P 2V7 |
| (403) 770-4800 |
| Joanne A. Hruska, CFA's website |
| Fax: (403) 770-4850 |
| info@astonhill.ca |
| HOLD | PetroBakken Energy | PBN-T | 32.360 | Likes what she is seeing. Not super cheap but also not super expensive. Will trade with oil prices. | 2010-01-13 | ||
| HOLD | Talisman Energy | TLM-T | 19.250 | Among the cheaper valued senior stocks. In the midst of a turnaround with the new management and focusing more on conventional and international projects to bring their costs in line. | 2010-01-13 | ||
| HOLD | Painted Pony Petroleum | PPY.A-X | 6.300 | Haven't purchased any recently but also have not sold. Growing into their price with more success in the Bakken. Have also brought in a whole new core area in northeast BC, which will be focused on gas. | 2010-01-13 | ||
| HOLD | Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd | AAV-T | 7.370 | Gas focused. Not buying any right now but continuing to old. Have a fantastic Montney property at Glacier, which has good potential. | 2010-01-13 | ||
| BUY | Rock Energy Inc. | RE-T | 3.850 | Focused on heavy oil, which she likes. Showing a lot of growth. Also have gas properties that are showing some initial success. Cheap. Good management and debt levels. | 2010-01-13 | ||
| HOLD | Nuvista Energy Ltd | NVA-T | 12.130 | Mid-cap gas weighted. Has come back but valuations are still inexpensive relative to its peers. No debt problems. | 2010-01-13 | ||
| HOLD | Vero Energy Inc. | VRO-T | 5.430 | Gas weighted. Had a little bit too much debt last year so the stock price came off quite a bit but is now starting to move up. Valuations are good but have to do something with their debt. | 2010-01-13 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Freehold Royalty Trust | FRU.UN-T | 15.900 | Very oil weighted so will trade on oil prices. If oil pulls back it could give you an opportunity. | 2010-01-13 | ||
| Comment | Cenovus Energy | CVE-T | 26.650 | Valuation after the spin-off is a little bit higher than its peer group. Needs an update from the company and then consider whether to Sell or Hold. | 2010-01-13 | ||
| HOLD | Connacher Oil and Gas | CLL-T | 1.500 | Have oil sands going for them. With the current higher oil prices they will be making a lot more money. On track with their expansion, which should be up and running on time. If you are bullish on crude this is a Hold. Debt is a little higher than what she likes. | 2010-01-13 | ||
| TOP PICK | Pengrowth Energy Trust | PGF.UN-T | 10.870 | Likes new management. Will have to change the culture from what the company was too more of an exploration/production. Expect they will continue a dividend after conversion to a corp but there will still be growth. Debt levels are in control. | 2010-01-13 | ||
| TOP PICK | Fairborne Energy Ltd. | FEL-T | 5.410 | Gas weighted. Thinks gas prices are going to be fine over the next year or two. Drilling some of the new horizontal multistage fraq wells in Harlech AB and are seeing some early success. The wells are a little more expensive so you need gas prices to stay up. | 2010-01-13 | ||
| TOP PICK | Twin Butte Energy | TBE-T | 1.290 | Heavy oil focused and has some good production growth. Had a little higher than average debt but have just raised some money and sold some properties. Very cheap. | 2010-01-13 | ||
| TOP PICK | Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd | AAV-T | 6.900 | Recently converted from a trust. Raised some money and sold off some assets. Will focus most of their attention and money on a Glacier play in the Montney's. Excellent land assets. | 2009-09-14 | ||
| TOP PICK | Crew Energy Inc. | CR-T | 7.990 | Oil/gas assets. Not getting enough credit for their acquisition of Gentry Resources. Gentry had a full package of oil assets in southeast Alberta. They have increased the oil production by over 60% in the last year. | 2009-09-14 | ||
| TOP PICK | Rock Energy Inc. | RE-T | 2.200 | Small-cap so be careful. 75% oil. Strong management team that is relatively conservative. Price/cash flow level is very cheap relative to its peers. NAV last December was well over $5. | 2009-09-14 | ||
| Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Oil. Seeing a lot of very positive global economic indicators that indicate things are turning around but there are still some points that are negative. Looking for $80-$85 crude this time next year. For traders there could be a lower point that you could get in on. For longer-term investors, the smaller and mid-cap are pretty interesting places to be right now. | 2009-09-14 | ||
| PARTIAL BUY | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Natural gas. Fundamentally it does not look very good right now but, with any cycle, if you stop drilling for it eventually it will work its way back. Investors should start to slowly nibble their way back in over the next few weeks. | 2009-09-14 | ||
| PARTIAL BUY | Bankers Petroleum | BNK-T | 3.950 | Good team. Great asset in Albania. She doesn't own it right now but hopes to start picking at it in a little bit. Reasonable price. | 2009-09-14 | ||
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| HOLD | TriStar Oil & Gas | TOG-T | 14.990 | Acquiring Petrobank Energy (PBG-T). She will be holding her shares as she is looking for something in the $16-$17 range. If oil prices continue to be strong, her target level could be surpassed, as Petrobakken will be a very pure play as an oil producer. | 2009-09-14 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Orleans Energy Ltd. | OEX-T | 2.530 | (A Top Pick Sept 12/08. Down 18%.) Gas in the Montney and are currently extending the trend to the southwest in the Cabob (?) area. Good team and excellent assets. Inexpensive and still a Buy. | 2009-09-14 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Nuvista Energy Ltd | NVA-T | 11.100 | (A Top Pick Sept 12/08. Down 16.5%.) Fantastic company. Great management. Very good at counter cyclical acquisitions. Just made another one. Expecting a lot of upside. Still an expensive and a Hold. | 2009-09-14 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Breaker Energy Ltd. | WAV-T | 4.820 | (A Top Pick Sept 12/08. Down 46%.) Small-cap energy name. Surprised it has not recovered more. About 50/50 oil weighting. Well run and big suite of assets. Hold. | 2009-09-14 | ||
| Comment | Harvest Energy Trust | HTE.UN-T | 6.400 | As with many of the trusts, there is a risk that the 9.6% yield could be cut going into 2011. Their refinery business has been quite challenging. | 2009-09-14 | ||
| HOLD | Painted Pony Petroleum | PPY.A-X | 4.350 | A Saskatchewan Bakken play. Very well run. Valuation is getting a little higher so she would not be buying more herself. Have a tract of land right in the heart of the Montney area of BC. | 2009-09-14 | ||
| Comment | Birchcliff Energy Ltd. | BIR-T | 7.690 | A good name, particularly in this gas environment recovery. Valuation relative to its peers is a little bit higher for her but she likes the team and the assets. She would like it at the $5-$6 range but not a bad investment for the individual investor. | 2009-09-14 | ||
| WATCH | Compton Petroleum | CMT-T | 1.220 | Had far too much debt. New management issued some equity last week, which will help but doesn't think it's enough to keep the debt levels in a range that she would be comfortable with. Thinks new management will be able to turn it around. | 2009-09-14 | ||
| HOLD | Encana Corp | ECA-T | 63.450 | Announced they are going to split into 2 companies, one for gas and one for oil. Thinks it will be $20US for the oil company and $45 for the gas. If you own, keep both divisions as there is a chance that the oil division may end up becoming more of a takeover target. | 2009-09-14 | ||
| WATCH | Opti Canada Inc. | OPC-T | 1.670 | Had a lot of debt. Raised some money but the debt levels are still higher than what she would like. You have to keep watching to see that operationally they keep moving in the right direction. | 2009-09-14 | ||
| HOLD | Vero Energy Inc. | VRO-T | 3.940 | Junior Alberta gas producer. A little bit weaker than its peers. OK but not one of the stronger ones in the sector. Management is working on the debt problem. You have to keep your eye on it. | 2009-09-14 | ||
| Comment | Husky Energy | HSE-T | 29.600 | Relative to its peers, the chart is quite weak. It intrigues her and it may be getting to a point where this may be a buy again soon. | 2009-09-14 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Legacy Oil + Gas Inc. | LEG-T | 1.700 | New management team acquired a number of small private companies and assets so she ended up with some of their stock. Still thinks it's a little bit rich but likes where they are going with it. | 2009-09-14 | ||
| Comment | Paramount Resources | POU-T | 10.200 | Has ownership of a number of different energy companies. Just recently started to make a move and thinks this will continue. | 2009-09-14 | ||
| Comment | Perpetual Energy | PMT-T | 5.210 | Very gas focused. Starting to work its way back. Has a lot of hedges, which may be why it has done better. | 2009-09-14 | ||
| BUY | Delphi Energy Corp. | DEE-T | 1.430 | Gas weighted. Well-respected management has been working its way through the debt. Some interesting plays but one in particular that she is excited about is northwest Alberta gas in the Montney fairway. | 2009-09-14 | ||
| Comment | Talisman Energy | TLM-T | 19.420 | New management has a new focus on resource plays, which will give them a multiple expansion. Much cheaper than its senior peers. | 2009-09-14 | ||
| BUY | Galleon Energy Inc. | GO-T | 6.350 | Couldn't believe how low it was priced but is now starting to move up. A lot of land. Good management. Good potential for many years. | 2009-09-14 | ||
| Comment | Highpine Oil & Gas | HPX-T | 6.950 | Being acquired by Daylight Energy (DAY.UN-T). If you own, take the shares rather than the cash. Daylight has put together a beautiful spread of land in Alberta and using the multistage fraqing technology they have successfully used elsewhere. | 2009-09-14 | ||
| HOLD | Crescent Point Energy Corp | CPG-T | 37.770 | (Market Call Minute.) Valuations are just creeping up a little. If you have a longer-term timeframe, you hold it you make a lot of money. | 2009-09-14 | ||
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| HOLD | Nexen Inc | NXY-T | 24.560 | (Market Call Minute.) Not one of her top picks but also not a bottom pick. | 2009-09-14 | ||
| HOLD | Penn West Energy Trust | PWT.UN-T | 14.790 | (Market Call Minute.) Has been a bit of a laggard but the sheer amount of resource play and potential they have to work with should be good in the long run. | 2009-09-14 | ||
| HOLD | Zargon Energy Trust | ZAR.UN-T | 19.020 | (Market Call Minute.) Just acquired one of her junior companies and she intends to take the shares and hold. | 2009-09-14 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Birchcliff Energy Ltd. | BIR-T | 6.830 | Has a premium price and high debt level compared to pier group. Likes the management and the plays. | 2009-04-15 | ||
| STRONG BUY | Bonavista Energy Trust | BNP.UN-T | 17.090 | Market Call Minute. Always had a premium multiple but now they have a discount. | 2009-04-15 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Baytex Energy Trust | BTE.UN-T | 15.100 | Will move with oil prices. Valuation and debt a little higher than piers. | 2009-04-15 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Kereco | KCO-T | 4.720 | (Top Pick Apr 14/08 Up 55.17%) Was taken over. | 2009-04-15 | ||
| WAIT | Cinch Energy Corp | CNH-T | 0.670 | Resource base could be very valuable. Wells are expensive. Watching debt. Wants to see the future become a little brighter for the juniors. | 2009-04-15 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Crew Energy Inc. | CR-T | 5.210 | Takeover speculation drove price recently. | 2009-04-15 | ||
| BUY | Daylight Resources Trust | DAY-T | 7.250 | Purchased this morning because they announced an issue to raise some money. | 2009-04-15 | ||
| BUY | Delphi Energy Corp. | DEE-T | 1.120 | Debt levels are higher, but they are working through it. Thinks it is going to be fine. Watch the debt level. | 2009-04-15 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Fairborne Energy Ltd. | FEL-T | 4.040 | (Top Pick Apr 14/08 Down 48.87%) Had some early success. They are expensive wells. Likes the future play potential. | 2009-04-15 | ||
| VAGUE | Galleon Energy Inc. | GO-T | 4.520 | The Debt is about 2.4 debt to cash ratio, but an above average chance of being taken over (guessing at $7). Watch the debt month after month. | 2009-04-15 | ||
| BUY | Highpine Oil & Gas | HPX-T | 5.680 | Very little debt. Diversified into another area. Valuations are cheap, almost a top pick. They recently drilled two dry holes. | 2009-04-15 | ||
| SELL | Imperial Oil | IMO-T | 44.700 | Sold this week because valuation compared to piers became higher. May get back in. | 2009-04-15 | ||
| HOLD | Chinook Energy Inc | CKE-T | 1.250 | People thought their debt level was unmanageable. Just did a bought financing deal that will help. Higher risk. | 2009-04-15 | ||
| TOP PICK | Nuvista Energy Ltd | NVA-T | 7.150 | Spin off of Bona Vista. Same corporate culture. Slow and steady, build growth for the long term. Very cheap, no debt problems, having success on the gas side. | 2009-04-15 | ||
| BUY | Open Range Energy Corp. | ONR-T | 1.520 | Was hoping to create a new core area for themselves but it didn’t work out. They have many years of inventory, is cheap, and could be a takeover target. | 2009-04-15 | ||
| SELL ON STRENGTH | Opti Canada Inc. | OPC-T | 2.280 | Takeover speculation driving price. She does not buy stocks strictly for a takeover. If credit crisis continues they may have trouble. | 2009-04-15 | ||
| HOLD | Petro-Canada | PCA-T | 37.310 | Merging with Suncor. Price is as if it was a take-over. She kept Suncor, taking profits in Petro Canada. | 2009-04-15 | ||
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| HOLD | Painted Pony Petroleum | PPY.A-X | 2.600 | Will keep growing. If valuation keeps continues to grow, lighten your holding. | 2009-04-15 | ||
| HOLD | Progress Energy Resources | PRQ-T | 9.440 | Will keep growing. If valuation keeps continues to grow, lighten your holding. | 2009-04-15 | ||
| HOLD | Regal Energy Ltd. | REG-X | 0.075 | Thinks there will be a share consolidation and typically share prices go down. She is waiting for consolidation and then buy. | 2009-04-15 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Twin Butte Energy | TBE-T | 0.680 | (Top Pick Apr 14/08 Down 76%) Is down by the average of the Juniors. A new management team has come in. She is impressed with new team. Debt is creeping up. | 2009-04-15 | ||
| TOP PICK | Talisman Energy | TLM-T | 14.900 | They sold a lot less production to get a lot more money. No debt issue. It’s time for this to turn around. The risk is that it has already come off its lows and the market pulls back. | 2009-04-15 | ||
| WAIT | TriStar Oil & Gas | TOG-T | 9.700 | Market Call Minute. Wait if oil prices come off a bit. | 2009-04-15 | ||
| TOP PICK | Breaker Energy Ltd. | WAV-T | 4.190 | Cheap, good management, mutli-year inventory. Smaller market cap. | 2009-04-15 | ||
| SELL | WesternZagros Resources Ltd. | WZR-X | 0.720 | Market Call Minute. Drilling expensive wells. | 2009-04-15 | ||
| BUY | Galleon Energy Inc. | GO-T | 3.900 | Debt to cash flow levels are creeping up on all of these companies. Have over 1 million acres of undeveloped land in the Montney region. Tremendous upside. Have had some really good wells recently. Continue to monitor their debt. | 2009-01-16 | ||
| BUY | Crew Energy Inc. | CR-T | 4.200 | Have a lot of Alberta production but also have quite a bit of land in BC and have been trying to prove up a play in the Montney. Good value. | 2009-01-16 | ||
| WAIT | Daylight Resources Trust | DAY-T | 7.930 | Good company and feels the yield is good. Would wait until the new budget comes out to see if there is a change on trusts. | 2009-01-16 | ||
| HOLD | Breaker Energy Ltd. | WAV-T | 4.200 | Has come down with all the junior oil/gas stocks in the last little bit. Great management team and great suite of assets. Doesn't see any debt issues. | 2009-01-16 | ||
| Comment | Progress Energy Resources | PRQ-T | 8.750 | Merging with ProEx Energy (PXE-T). If you are in it for high yield, you might want to switch out of it and move into a higher yield. If the yield is not a big factor, continue to hold. Huge land spread in northern BC. | 2009-01-16 | ||
| BUY | Painted Pony Petroleum | PPY.A-X | 1.400 | Crescent Point (CPG.UN-T) owns 20%. $10 million in cash and no debt. Very cheap. | 2009-01-16 | ||
| STRONG BUY | NAL Oil & Gas Trust | NAE.UN-T | 8.120 | Yield of 16%-17%. Have hedges of $132 for 2009. In the trust sector this would be her Top Pick. | 2009-01-16 | ||
| TOP PICK | Encana Corp | ECA-T | 56.730 | Leader in the large cap Canadian space. The hedging position they have, which killed them in Q2 of 08, is going to make them look like superstars. About 66% of gas is hedged. Cautiously optimistic that it has turned. | 2009-01-16 | ||
| TOP PICK | Celtic Exploration Ltd. | CLT-T | 12.270 | Intermediate in the Montney region in Alberta. Even at present prices, they are still making money. Big resource potential. Cheap. | 2009-01-16 | ||
| TOP PICK | Angle Energy Inc | NGL-T | 3.600 | At over 7000 barrels a day, all through the drill bit. Very smart technical team. Just went public last summer and are just starting to get research analysts to cover them. | 2009-01-16 | ||
| TOP PICK | Breaker Energy Ltd. | WAV-T | 8.890 | Had quite a premium multiple for a long time but well deserved but now trading at nice multiples relative to their peers. Good growth potential. Just about to drill a well at Monias BC which could be a catalyst for the stock. | 2008-09-12 | ||
| TOP PICK | Orleans Energy Ltd. | OEX-T | 3.150 | The Montney formation in BC is similar to what this company has in Kabob Alberta. Drilling here has shown quarter after quarter production increases. Good enough track record that they will be able to get financing. Very cheap relative to their peers. | 2008-09-12 | ||
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| TOP PICK | Nuvista Energy Ltd | NVA-T | 13.180 | Typically trades at a premium multiple to their peers but have come off and now trade at or below market multiples. Recently acquired Rider Resources at the bottom of the gas market and have already been able to grow the assets. Ontario Teachers own 20% of the company so they have financing for the future. | 2008-09-12 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Vero Energy Inc. | VRO-T | 7.460 | (A Top Pick Aug 24/07. Up 34%.) Still likes, but have traded in and out. Looking to get back in again. Trading at much less than the peer group multiples on a cash flow basis and net asset value. Good growth still to come. Buy. | 2008-09-12 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Redstar Oil & Gas Inc. | RED-T | 0.970 | (A Top Pick Aug 24/07. Up 39 %.) Acquired by Great Plains Explorations (GPX-T). | 2008-09-12 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Fairmount Energy Inc. | FMT-X | 1.060 | (A Top Pick Aug 24/07. Down 29%.) Drilling in Gold Creek Alberta with bigger and more expensive wells. Had a tough time raising money but think they have solved it now. Sold her holdings. | 2008-09-12 | ||
| BUY | Great Plains Explorations Inc. | GPX-T | 0.570 | Completely different company than what it was when it did the Redstar takeover. Just added more land in northeast BC. | 2008-09-12 | ||
| BUY | Bankers Petroleum | BNK-T | 3.500 | There has been share consolidation that has created some weakness. She is very close to buying this. Good management. Feels they will be able to raise financing. | 2008-09-12 | ||
| BUY | Arc Energy Trust | AET.UN-T | 24.930 | Big fan of this trust. Montney region has such great growth potential. Great management. Doesn't currently own but is looking at getting back into it. Excellent cash flow. About a 12% yield. | 2008-09-12 | ||
| BUY | Encana Corp | ECA-T | 71.690 | Will be split into an oil company and gas company. Gas side has great potential. This split will be a catalyst for the shares and could possibly reach $100 in 2 to 5 years. Post-split you should hold both companies. | 2008-09-12 | ||
| STRONG BUY | Galleon Energy Inc. | GO-T | 11.280 | Was gas weighted but is moving more to oil. Have over 1 million undeveloped acres in the sweet spot near the Montney and near all the action. A screaming buy. Trading at quite a discount to their peers. (Some of the management left to start another company.) | 2008-09-12 | ||
| BUY | Painted Pony Petroleum | PPY.A-X | 3.650 | Oil in the Bakken region of Saskatchewan. Crescent Point Energy (CPG.UN-T) recently set up a company called Shelter Bay. This company is a part of that. Still likes this company. | 2008-09-12 | ||
| BUY | Canext Energy Ltd | CXZ-X (Dead) | 0.770 | Gas in the Montney region of BC. | 2008-09-12 | ||
| BUY | Connacher Oil and Gas | CLL-T | 3.460 | Recently bought this for the first time in her career. Oil sands focused but also have some conventional production as well as natural gas production. Have been on schedule and within budget. | 2008-09-12 | ||
| BUY | Crew Energy Inc. | CR-T | 11.470 | Just acquired Gentry (GNY-T), an oil play in Saskatchewan, which is a balance to their higher risk Montney gas play in BC. Gentry had an amazing spread of land in the Princess area of southern Alberta. | 2008-09-12 | ||
| BUY | Chinook Energy Inc | CKE-T | 5.050 | Excellent management team. Stock has come off so much that she is looking to buy this one. Expect they will be building this to 50,000 barrels a day. | 2008-09-12 | ||
| BUY | Suncor Energy Inc | SU-T | 50.200 | Trading at an unbelievably cheap price at $100 oil. | 2008-09-12 | ||
| BUY | Fairborne Energy Ltd. | FEL-T | 12.070 | Have a huge spread of land in Harlech Alberta. Drilling for tight gas sand, similar to the Montney. Just drilled their first well at 13,000,000 ft.³ a day. They have 100 sections of land to follow up. Awesome resource potential. Trading at cheap multiples compared to their peers. | 2008-09-12 | ||
| BUY | Penn West Energy Trust | PWT.UN-T | 27.590 | Trading at less than the market multiples of their peers. Have made some massive acquisitions over the last few years so have some slight concerns on integration risks but think this is baked into the price. Will have huge resource potential for a lot of the new technologies. | 2008-09-12 | ||
| BUY | Crescent Point Energy Corp | CPG-T | 34.380 | Likes this trust but it is trading at a little bit of a premium multiple to its peer group. Have a lot of land in the Bakken formation in Saskatchewan. | 2008-09-12 | ||
| BUY | UTS Energy | UTS-T | 3.130 | The big question on this is that they have to raise $1 billion. With the credit crunch, the market is concerned they will not be able to raise it. She thinks they will be able to raise it. Have a lot of projects that they can farm down. | 2008-09-12 | ||
| BUY | Delphi Energy Corp. | DEE-T | 1.940 | Now trading at less than 2X cash flow. Good buy right now. | 2008-09-12 | ||
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| BUY on WEAKNESS | Computer Modeling Group Ltd | CMG-T | 9.900 | Use computer modeling to do reservoir optimization techniques. This is becoming more popular. Very low liquidity. Would like to see it in the $8 to $9 range. | 2008-09-12 |