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Jeff Black of Crestridge Asset Management

Opinions from Jeff Black

DON'T BUYAlcoaAA-N10.260Looking out, particularly like cyclical like this one, doesn't have too much earnings momentum. Economically sensitive. Wouldn't buy at these levels.2011-10-14
DON'T BUYCanadian National R.R.CNR-T74.080Has always had great operating performance. Highly cyclical in terms of its economic sensitivity. Not a great dividend yield, but a reasonably good dividend grower. Not a fan of the rails given his economic views.2011-10-14
BUY on WEAKNESSCiscoCSCO-Q17.550This one has been a bit of a roller coaster. Have made an awful lot of acquisitions over the years so there is a lot of goodwill on the balance sheet. Have some threats on their core business, but he thinks they will get through this. Doesn't see high-growth. Consider buying in the $15-$16 range and hopefully it can get back to the low $20's.2011-10-14
DON'T BUYEncana CorpECA-T21.080Post the split, focused on gas but not the best timing. Natural gas has increased supplies, particularly with the shale plays. In the process of divesting a number of assets, trying to rebalance the balance sheet, which got too skewed to debt. Hard to see gas being an economic driver for the next little while.2011-10-14
PAST TOP PICKJohnson & JohnsonJNJ-N64.720(A Top Pick Sept 29/10. Up 6.77%.) Reasonable valuation and a decent dividend. A core defensive holding.2011-10-14
PAST TOP PICKMicrosoftMSFT-Q27.270(A Top Pick Sept 29/10. Up 13.74%.) Just increased their dividend and he expects them to continue this.2011-10-14
TOP PICKNovartis AGNVS-N58.560Trading at about 12X expected earnings. Good diversified operations including research pharmaceutical side, own Sandos, the #2 global generic pharmaceutical company, into the vaccine space as well as eye care space. Getting faster growth in emerging economies. 3.7% yield.2011-10-14
BUYRoyal BankRY-T47.700Can look at this as a core quality holding. Good dividend. Solid business franchise. Exited the US. Growing global wealth management through some good acquisitions.2011-10-14
DON'T BUYSherritt International Corp.S-T4.800Cyclical commodity based business. This one in particular has some political geographical risks. Madagascar project has non-recourse financing but not sure how important this project will be. Good assets for the next cycle but there is no rush to buy.2011-10-14
CommentVodafone Group PLCVOD-Q27.600Industry in this space is pretty capital-intensive but it does have a reasonable yield. Quite exposed to Europe, which has some serious issues.2011-10-14
TOP PICKiShares S&P/TSX Global GoldXGD-T24.860S&P/TSX Global Gold ETF. Tracks gold producers. With the recent pullback of bullion he feels there is better value with the gold shares. Dominated by 3 big companies, Barrack (ABX-T), Placer and Newmont (NMC-T), which account for 40%.2011-10-14
PAST TOP PICKA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA Commentary0.020(A Top Pick Sept 29/10. Up 27%.) Gold Bullion.2011-10-14
CommentPhilip Morris InternationalPM-N67.400Good dividend. Stable business and growing outside of North America. Tough business in many respects. You have to accept the social consequences of owning it. Doesn't see a lot of growth longer-term.2011-10-14
TOP PICKCASHCASH0.010Markets have been really driven off the monetary stimulus and it's really the underlying fundamentals that have to carry the day. Not a bad time to be a little more conservative and have your powder dry. He is a third cash, third fixed income, and a third equity.2011-10-14
DON'T BUYProShares UlShrt China 25 ETFFXP-N34.890ProShares UlShrt China 25 ETF. Being an ultra-short, this is a leveraged inverse correlated play on the China index. Part of the challenge with any of the short or inverse ETF's is its daily tracking. Aon't always have tracking error there with respect to their underlying indices might do. (Not sure I got this last part right. – Ed.)2011-10-14
DON'T BUYBank of AmericaBAC-N14.690Stays away from the US financials. Sold out of S&P 500 index. It’s pretty tough to get a handle on tangible book. Prefers Royal TD or Scotia.2011-01-11
BUYBCE Inc.BCE-T35.750A core holding. Nice increase recently. Not without its challenges industry wise. Nice dividend. 2011-01-11
BUYBank of Nova ScotiaBNS-T56.360A core Canadian name, international bank, good management, excellent dividend yield. But they put some focus to global investment management. Deal recently with Dundee – time will tell on that. Good diversified growth. 2011-01-11
BUYManulife FinancialMFC-T17.550Had a turnaround off the $9 lows. Management did a good job there adjusting the capital market exposure by de-risking it. The stock has participated. This is a reasonable entry point. It really still comes back to capital markets and how they will do as well as bond markets. Over time it will be a good total return.2011-01-11
BUYResearch In MotionRIM-T62.150Just in Vegas for the tech show and they have the playbook coming out. They did a great job and have the dominant email and business franchise. Concerns about competition and competing operating systems. Motorola is back in that game. Will be volatile for sure. On a pure valuation basis, Apple is more expensive.2011-01-11
TOP PICKSuncor Energy IncSU-T37.430Be patient and wait for a lower price. Likes the name – good long life reserves; integration with Petro Canada is going well; solid management – likes it long term.2011-01-11
BUY on WEAKNESSViterra IncVT-T10.600Agricultural sector: ETFs give you the broad diversification, but he went with VT-T instead. It is getting over bought. You get good longer term exposure.2011-01-11
BUY on WEAKNESSTeck Resources Ltd. (B)TCK.B-T63.110Quality Canadian name, good core holding. Flirted with being insolvent in the credit crisis. Re-initiated a small dividend again. Can it go further – yes. Momentum could certainly carry it higher. Firing on all cylinders. Not cheap valuation-wise. If you are short-term trader, there is some momentum still in there but if long-term, perhaps wait for a pull back (5-10%).2011-01-11
BUYTrans Canada CorpTRP-T37.240Dirty Oil issue: Not sure US has the luxury long term to feel that way. Canada is politically stable. Too large a reserve to ignore. 2011-01-11
BUYGeorge Weston Ltd.WN-T82.850Special dividends are priced in. Has had a good turn-around. Food inflation is a concern in the business and they can’t pass it on to consumers. Long term buy2011-01-11
TOP PICKiUnits S&P/TSX 60 ETFXIU-T19.250(Top Pick Jan 14/10, Up 13.57%) A core holding for a lot of people. It was outperformed by the small caps, but he can’t emphasize the value of dividends going forward. High quality slice of the Canadian market. Gives you the beta of the market at a very low cost. Dividends are cash so they can go elsewhere. Over time we will revert back to large caps out performing. 2011-01-11
PAST TOP PICKiShares S&P/TSX Global GoldXGD-T24.720(Top Pick Jan 14/10, Up 16.33%) It’s important to have some exposure in portfolios to gold. Some of the holdings are still catching up to the price of gold.2011-01-11
N/AA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA Commentary0.020Things are getting a little frothy. Some areas of the market are over valued. He is a balanced investor. Biased to large caps. Dividend streams are going to be a key component to returns. 2011-01-11
DON'T BUYBrookfield Asset Management (A)BAM.A-T31.950Quality, diversified name. Asset management and real estate. One knock against them is their complicated structure – not always that readable by the analyst community. Since their run, is a little ahead of itself somewhat. We are overdue for some sort of correction/pull-back. Not one of his favorites.2011-01-11
TOP PICKCASHCASH0.010(Top Pick Jan 14/10) He was 25-35% cash last year, but has positioned himself where he wants to be now. There will be better names along the way and so he is holding some cash. He is an asset allocator and you have to have some cash for a balanced portfolio.2011-01-11
BUYBMO Equal Weight Bank ETFZEB-T16.900Gives you the basket of banks. Is a pretty prudent way of owning the banks. 2011-01-11
BUYClaymore Broad Commodity ETFCBR-T22.810Came out in October /10. It’s going to be volatile. On the near term it is due for some consolidation. Holds actual commodities. Not averse to the extra risk. It’s another kettle of fish on the risk tolerance side. Keep investments like this in context and be disciplined on your time horizons.2011-01-11
DON'T BUYSPDR Semiconductor E.T.F.XSD-N58.570A big run recently. Narrow sector ETF (Tech). You have to look at the individual components. All the obvious ones are in here. It isn’t just about the sentiment – the fundamentals have to change. At some point their earnings have to drive it further.2011-01-11
WEAK BUYiShares S&P/TSX N.A. PreferredXPF-T20.010A new EFT, started last November. North American in scope. Good strong dividends, diversified market. Perpetuals are a different interest rate risk. He is not sure how they deal with the tax treatment of US preferds. A reset is a good way to protect against future interest rate hikes but you can’t control that with the ETF.2011-01-11
BUYCanadian Oil SandsCOS-T24.680Despite the recession and weaker demand, oil has held in quite well. Good to have yield with oil exposure.2010-09-29
PARTIAL BUYFortis Inc.FTS-T32.360Solid good utility. Has run up like anything that is paying a dividend. Have been increasing dividends with their earnings profile. Fully valued at current price. Would suggest a partial position at this time.2010-09-29
BUYIvanhoe MinesIVN-T25.000Surged because of a new discovery in Mongolia of a copper/gold deposit but it's a long way before they have a producing mine. Likes the longer-term growth profile.2010-09-29
TOP PICKJohnson & JohnsonJNJ-N62.310AAA balance sheet. Excellent dividend at about 3.5%. A lot of cash but recently acquired some debt at very attractive rates.2010-09-29
BUYKinross GoldK-T19.570Made a major acquisition in Red Back Mining. Good growth profile going forward in increased production.2010-09-29
DON'T BUYMotorolaMSI-N8.560Just split their 2 divisions. Has been under pressure for some time since the tech boom. Dropped the ball on the personal handset phone side. Better places to be.2010-09-29
TOP PICKMicrosoftMSFT-Q24.500Reasonably valued and an attractive dividend, which will keep growing. Strong Cdn$ can be used to advantage. Although they have a lot of cash, they recently acquired some debt at very attractive rates.2010-09-29
BUYPower Financial CorpPWF-T29.140Solid company. On the insurance side, Great West (GWO-T) is exposed to capital markets.2010-09-29
DON'T BUYResearch In MotionRIM-T50.040Has had a short-term recovery but still down 25% or so year-to-date. Have some challenges. Will be volatile. Expects it to go back to the low $40's.2010-09-29
BUYSuncor Energy IncSU-T33.190Has been under pressure year-to-date. Good name for a longer-term exposure.2010-09-29
DON'T BUYTeck Resources Ltd. (B)TCK.B-T41.970A core Canadian resource play. Not bad exposure longer term but not a particularly attractive entry point. His exposure on this would be through the S&P/TSX 60 ETF (XIU-T).2010-09-29
PAST TOP PICKiUnits S&P/TSX 60 ETFXIU-T17.930(A Top Pick Jan 14/10. Up 3%.) S&P/TSX 60 ETF. A core holding. Tracks about 60 companies in Canada with 3 main sectors of resources, mining/minerals and financials.2010-09-29
BUY on WEAKNESSMonsanto CompanyMON-N48.000Agricultural theme that plays out well longer term. Involved very much in the genetically modified seed area but not without some controversy.2010-09-29
PAST TOP PICKiShares S&P/TSX Global GoldXGD-T25.380(A Top Pick Jan 14/10. Up 20%.) S&P/TSX Global Gold ETF. Wanted to have some underlying gold share exposure for clients. Still a gap between bullion and gold companies.2010-09-29
BUYSPDR Gold ETFGLD-N127.950Trades at a 1 to 10 ratio on the underlying gold bullion so it is an efficient way to get access to bullion.2010-09-29
TOP PICKA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA Commentary0.020Gold bullion/Gold equity. Some of the influences for this are a weaker US dollar and Global government concerns. These problems will continue. His clients hold from 5% to 15%.2010-09-29
CommentA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA Commentary0.020Oil. Despite the recession and weaker demand, it has held in quite well. This is also influenced by the weaker US$. A fundamental area for a core exposure. Nice to have companies with yields.2010-09-29
PAST TOP PICKCASHCASH0.010(A Top Pick Jan 14/10.) Has about 25%-30% of his holdings in cash.2010-09-29
DON'T BUYProShare Ultra Short 20+ yr Treasury ETFTBT-N31.210Ultra Short 20+ yr Treasury ETF. (Shorts long-term debt of the treasury.) Hard to see where they could go much lower but how long they stay down remains to be seen. Day trading oriented, especially with the 2X leverage.2010-09-29
DON'T BUYHBP NYMEX Oil Bull+ ETFHOU-T6.090NYMEX Oil Bull+ ETF. Designed to give you 2X the return on the price of oil. When you have the leverage and the daily rebalancing, some of the effect will be lost. More of a shorter term, speculative play.2010-09-29
DON'T BUYiPATH S&P 500 VIX Short-TermVXX-N16.930S&P 500 Volatility Index Short-Term. Related to fear and will trade on sentiment. Last little while there is a more positive sentiment in the market so this has under performed. This is a short-term, speculative type of investment.2010-09-29
BUYBCE Inc.BCE-T28.030Telcos are not a heavy weighting in his portfolios. It will be some time before they lose significant market share against the new players but there will be some challenge to growth and margins. Good defensive play. 6.2% yield. This would be his 1st choice.2010-01-14
CommentCanadian National R.R.CNR-T55.340Economically sensitive. Have all directions covered very well. Volumes are going to increase over time as the recovery takes hold. Good place to be longer-term. 1.8% dividend yield.2010-01-14
BUYManulife FinancialMFC-T20.580Disappointed investors on a number of fronts with their dividend cut and come into the market a few times for equities getting a lot of dilution. That is now behind them and they have a fortress balance sheet. Likes their geographic reach. Expect it will be more prudently managed going forward.2010-01-14
HOLDNexen IncNXY-T23.880Well managed and in the right sector for longer-term.2010-01-14
BUYPfizer IncPFE-N19.380Have their challenges with patent expiries but a huge global player with very good exposure to emerging markets. Reasonable dividend. 3.7% yield.2010-01-14
CommentRogers Communcations (B)RCI.B-T31.490Telcos are not a heavy weighting in his portfolios. This one now has a dividend of 3.7%. It will be some time before they lose significant market share against the new players but there will be some challenges to growth and margins. BCE (BCE-T) would be his 1st choice.2010-01-14
BUYSuncor Energy IncSU-T37.520A core holding. Merger with Petrocan was excellent. Well managed. Safe jurisdiction.2010-01-14
CommentTrans Canada CorpTRP-T34.940Quality company. Trading around 17X forward earnings with a good base of dividends.2010-01-14
BUYTelus CorpT-T33.900Excellent dividend. Telcos are not a heavy weighting in his portfolios. It will be some time before they lose significant market share against the new players but there will be some challenge to growth and margins. Good defensive play. BCE (BCE-T) would be his 1st choice.2010-01-14
TOP PICKiUnits S&P/TSX 60 ETFXIU-T17.350S&P/TSX 60 ETF. This is a time to stay large-cap and defensive and count on the dividend flow that is going to come. This gives you the top financials, top energies and top materials.2010-01-14
TOP PICKiShares S&P/TSX Global GoldXGD-T21.230Not a gold bug but recognizes there is some secular wind at their back. A lot of the equities have not kept pace with bullion but will get better reflected in their earnings growth.2010-01-14
CommentA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA Commentary0.020Canadian banking sector over the next 12 to 36 months? Performed particularly well through the crisis. Doesn't expect dividend increases will be forthcoming for a while. Earnings will be stable. (See Top Picks.)2010-01-14
DON'T BUYA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA Commentary0.020US financials. These are to be avoided. There has been a big recovery but there is a lot of write-offs and challenges to come, particularly from residential and commercial real estate.2010-01-14
CommentA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA Commentary0.020Water. This is going to be a scarce resource. You could look at companies like General Electric (GE-N), which is very diversified. While the longer-term theme has some benefits, you have to watch the concentration of companies within the ETF's.2010-01-14
CommentiShares DEX Short Term BondXSB-T29.200Canadian Short Bond Index ETF. About 65% government and 35% corporate. Very conservative. Interest rate structure is quite low right now so coupons are not particularly high but you get some risk mitigation should rates rise given the short order term nature of it.2010-01-14
PAST TOP PICKiUnits Real Return Bond ETFXRB-T20.420(A Top Pick Apr 30/09. Up 11%.) Real Return Bonds, which do better in an inflationary environment. Hold.2010-01-14
CommentiShares S&P/TSX Income Trust ETFXTR-T11.380S&P/TSX Income Trust ETF. What will likely happen to the price and payout once the non-REIT trusts convert? Expected dividend yield will be reduced but if it ends up in a dividend form there are some tax advantages. Yield of about 7%. Weighting is very skewed to energy.2010-01-14
CommentPengrowth EnergyPGF-T10.800Not a bad place to be. They will have to address some changes on the trust side.2010-01-14
BUYVanguard Emerging ETFVWO-N42.200Broad emerging market ETF. Also available in Canada through the Claymore Broad Emerging Market ETF (CWO-T).2010-01-14
BUYClaymore Global Agriculture ETFCOW-T19.420Fertilizing companies are starting to get better pricing. Agricultural theme has some secular wind behind it. If you can be patient you'll get good total returns.2010-01-14
PAST TOP PICKiShares Cdn Corp Bond ETFXCB-T20.350(A Top Pick Apr 30/09. Up 8.75%.) Corporate bonds. Reasonable place to be. Does not expect much further spread reductions.2010-01-14
TOP PICKCASHCASH0.010He is holding about 40% cash.2010-01-14
PAST TOP PICKHBP 60 Inverse ETFHIX-T12.510(A Top Pick Apr 30/09. Down 23%.) 60 Inverse ETF. Was a market neutral position against his long TSX60 exposures.2010-01-14
BUYiUnits S&P/TSX 60 ETFXIU-T14.240Is Corporate Canada’s at its best in one single exposure.2009-04-30
PAST TOP PICKiUnits S&P FinancialXFN-T17.140(Top Pick Oct 6/08 Down 3.38%) Would still hold it. There is still profitability. You are paid to wait with dividends. Thinks it will re-test its lows.2009-04-30
PAST TOP PICKSPDR Gold ETFGLD-N87.270(Top Pick Oct 6/08 Up 3.14%) Modest exposure to gold in portfolios is warranted (10-15% of the equity exposure)2009-04-30
CommentA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA Commentary0.020March 9’th lows were a good low, but would not rule out a test of those lows. There are signs of improvement but we need signs of stabilization. Recent up turns would be put into the context of a bear market. Some of the conditions are starting to materialize. People should re-visit their asset mix and there should be rebalancing going on.2009-04-30
CommentA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA Commentary0.020Is one of the of the three ETF companies better than the others. IShares are only on the long side. Horizons has some inverse and leverage products. Claymore has a broader range of products including theme based. Leverage is a two-edged sward.2009-04-30
DON'T BUYIndia Fund Inc.IFN-N20.580Any fund that is only 25 securities is quite concentrated. May want to look more at an emerging market ETF. Comment applies to IFN-US, FXI-US. Prefers XIU-T2009-04-30
PAST TOP PICKiShares DEX Short Term BondXSB-T29.360(Top Pick Oct 6/08 Up 5.53%) Still comfortable holding, still keeping some strategic holding in bonds.2009-04-30
TOP PICKiUnits Real Return Bond ETFXRB-T18.780Real Return Bond. Stimulus packages could be inflationary Inflation will be a concern in about or 3 years time.2009-04-30
DON'T BUYiShares Xinhua China 25 ETFFXI-N31.980Any fund that is only 25 securities is quite concentrated. May want to look more at an emerging market ETF. Comment applies to IFN-US, FXI-US. Prefers XIU-T2009-04-30
BUYHBP S&P/TSX 60 Bull+ E.T.F.HXU-T11.980TSX-60 exposure. Stay long. Consider hedging exposure with a single inverse.2009-04-30
CommentClaymore Canadian Financial Monthly Income E.T.F.FIE.A-T5.610Any of the ETF providers have excellent websites to get insight to underlying portfolios. You get insights into whether there will be decreases to the dividends. Look at the payout ratio of each holding.2009-04-30
BUYVanguard Emerging ETFVWO-N27.670Indexed-based approach. Largest capitalization companies are what is represented. Origins are not as important as where they are doing business. For long-term investors that want emerging market exposure, it’s a buy.2009-04-30
TOP PICKiShares Cdn Corp Bond ETFXCB-T19.410There is a reason to have a bias towards corporates. Not high yield or high risk. Should be 50/50 government to Corporate.2009-04-30
BUYClaymore 1-5 yr Ladder Corp Bond ETFCBO-T20.540Ladder bond approach and short term in nature. Spreads out maturities over many years.2009-04-30
TOP PICKHBP 60 Inverse ETFHIX-T16.310Inverse ETF. A good risk management tool. It is a directional bet as well. A good bet when a correction occurs. A good risk management tool. 2009-04-30
VAGUEiUnits S&P/TSX 60 ETFXIU-T15.690It’s time to take a broader exposure in ETFs. Feels we are going to be in a global recession.2008-10-06
TOP PICKiUnits S&P FinancialXFN-T21.550Our financials are global. Good dividend stream, although not going to rise.2008-10-06
BUYSPDR Gold ETFGLD-N84.280There is a lot of money being printed right now and Gold is a good place to be. 2008-10-06
TOP PICKSPDR Gold ETFGLD-N84.280Gold. Not a big weight in portfolios. Prefers gold to gold stocks.2008-10-06
CommentA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA Commentary0.020We are overdue for a relief rally. It’s going to be tough to pick the bottom. Are funds at risk if ETF operator goes under? Investments are separate and segregated from the corporate funds. Thereis no cause for concern. How to survive a high inflationary period: Exposure to gold, real estate and bonds. In the case of real estate, look for investments that are lower than replacement cost. Windom tree has some currency ETFs. Shorting the banks. You have to pay the dividends along the way and that can be risky. It’s too late to short the banks.2008-10-06
BUYiShares DEX Universe Bond ETFXBB-T28.470It’s a good time to hold some bonds. If you want to be in bonds and don’t want the interest rate sensitivity, then go for the shorter terms.2008-10-06
TOP PICKiShares DEX Short Term BondXSB-T28.360A lot of people lost sight of having bonds. Should act as a good stabilizer2008-10-06

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