STOCKCHASE

Bird Construction Income Fund

0.020

Financials. Off to a good start this year. Look at these in the context of the big picture as to how the stock market performed over a 5-6 year period. We often get a very good move in the first 3 innings, followed by a pause in innings 4 and 5, followed by a run in the 6th and 7th, which then often leads us into the downturn. We are currently in the 6th -7th inning so you have to be a little careful. Treat as trades rather than as “Buy and Holds” as we are well into this economic cycle. Expect we will get back to where we were in bank stocks early last year but you have to watch out coming out the other side.

2012-01-16

PAST TOP PICK

Glentel Inc.

GLN-T

18.750

(A Top Pick Jan 20/11. Up 40.83%.) There is an interesting cycle on the life of cell phones and they are also selling tablets. Still a Strong Buy.

2012-01-16

DON'T BUY

GMP Capital Trust Inc

GMP-T

7.900

Not overly bullish on any of the public investment banks right now. The whole commission structure of the market is changing and he is not as bullish on commodities going forward as some people are.

2012-01-16

DON'T BUY

BDT-T

12.910

Doesn't know the company extremely well, but doesn't like this sector. These companies have very inconsistent performances over time. Not a good long term “Buy and Hold” kind of company.

2012-01-16

TOP PICK

Firm Capital Mortgage Investment

7.000

Car Loans. Both growth and dividends. (5.4% yield.) Payout ratio is only 35%-40%. Expect there will be a dividend hike some time between now and mid-year again, which should take the stock higher.

2012-01-16

Comment

Petrominerales Ltd.

PMG-T

18.180

Frustrating company. ROC shows up really strong but it just seems to be ignored. He prefers Freehold (FRU-T) as it gives a very nice distribution and a play on the upside.

2012-01-16

Comment

FC-T

13.120

Is dividend safe? Has no worries about this company. Consistent track record. Predominately in Toronto and there is very good loan to value.

2012-01-16

HOLD

Crocodile Gold Corp.

CRK-T

0.540

Ran into some issues but now seems to be getting back on track. With the juniors, you just have to be careful you don't have too much. Decent company. So bombed out right now that there is not a lot of downside. Prefers Argonaut Gold (AR-T) (which he feels is a Hold currently).

2012-01-16

TOP PICK

Canadian Energy Services & Technology

84.500

Own about 45 different software businesses globally. Recently doubled their dividend. Has phenomenal free cash flow.

2012-01-16

DON'T BUY

CEU-T

11.050

Sold his holdings recently. Wonderful company with outstanding cash flows but at over $12 it is getting fully valued. Fairly valued at these levels and there are better values in the sector such as Total Energy (TOT-T) #1 and Canyon Services (FRC-T) #2.

2012-01-16

Comment

Olympia Financial Group

OLY-X

41.470

All you are going to get in the near term is the 6.9% yield. If you are comfortable with 6.9% and low prospects of it being raised, you are fine. There are better choices in the sector. His favourite is Carfinco Financial (CFN-T). (See Top Picks.)

2012-01-16

PAST TOP PICK

Chesswood Group

CHW-T

6.650

(A Top Pick Jan 20/11. Up 2.55%.)

2012-01-16

HOLD

Alaris Royalty

AD-T

18.200

Holding company for a number of industrial companies. Management has a good track record of delivering. Very nice dividend.

2012-01-16

Comment

Element Financial

EFN-T

4.850

Positive on this company. Good management. His only concern is that it is a company still under construction so the earnings are going to kind of fall more in the 2013-2014 so if you Buy now, you will have to be patient. Long term story is actually better than the short term story.

2012-01-16

HOLD

BCE Inc.

BCE-T

41.200

It is a Merry Christmas for BCE shareholders. Just raised dividend. Not all the good news is in the price right now. Just keep watching it.

2011-12-12

SELL

Progressive Waste Solutions Inc

BIN-T

19.870

(Market Call Minute) Too hard to analyze. Financials are too complex.

2011-12-12

DON'T BUY

Chemtrade Logisitics Inc.

CHE.UN-T

14.460

His frustration is that the financial statements don’t lend themselves to a lot of analysis. It’s not a sell, but he recommends staying away.

2011-12-12

BUY

Canadian Western Bank

CWB-T

25.370

Not normally about the dividend. They are more of a growth company. You will continue to see steady increases. They did put out a disappointing quarter and this is a good entry point. Some think they are the best-managed bank in Canada. Hasn’t had a loss quarter in 20 years.

2011-12-12

SELL

Dollarma Inc.

DOL-T

41.800

This is one that he missed. It is priced to perfection. He would take profits. Significant premium to the market. Better value elsewhere. Prefers MTY-T. Would not even be interested in DOL if it pulled back 15%.

2011-12-12

DON'T BUY

Electrovaya Inc.

EFL-T

0.880

One of his biggest shorts this year. A lot of promoters got into this thing and promoted the heck out of it. Not a lot more downside.

2011-12-12

TOP PICK

Home Capital Group

HCG-T

50.450

Favourite financial stock. Return on equity of over 20% for 15-16 years. Compelling valuation. Has hit a bottom and is ready to move back up. May raise dividend this year.

2011-12-12

HOLD

MacDonald Dettwiler & Assoc.

MDA-T

46.270

Historically has a very good reputation. The gun is being re-loaded right now. Eventually they will get into some new technology. There is not a big worry about economic sensitivity but there’s not a short-term catalyst.

2011-12-12

SELL

Manulife Financial

MFC-T

10.910

(Market Call Minute) Business model will not come back strong any time soon.

2011-12-12

TOP PICK

Paladin Labs Inc

PLB-T

39.450

Outstanding value creation. Return on capital close to 40%. 200 Million cash. Can expect big acquisitions to come in the next year or two. CEO is on the mend after an accident.

2011-12-12

BUY

Potash Corp of Saskatchewan

POT-T

41.270

(Market Call Minute) Agri story is still in tact. Stock is cheap.

2011-12-12

DON'T BUY

Power Financial Corp

PWF-T

25.330

Not a lot of downside. Doesn’t like the financials that are linked to lifecos. It’s fine but there are financial institutions he prefers. There is better value in the small to mid-cap financials.

2011-12-12

BUY

Toronto Dominion

TD-T

73.640

Likes Canadian banks and this is one of the strongest. The depth of management is extremely strong in all the major banks so if one manager leaves, it is not a big issue.

2011-12-12

N/A

Total Energy Services Inc

0.020

Market: We are grinding through things in Europe right now. Won’t have a long-term solution in place for some time but should have a policy in place within 90n days. Either a good one involves the ECB or a more muddled one from Germany are the two options. We will be in a better position next year. Stocks are cheap and dividends look good. Lots of diamonds and rubies out there. A lot of pessimism is priced into the marketplace. This is the second most attractive environment for valuations in his lifetime.

2011-12-12

BUY

Intact Financial

IFC-T

58.260

One of the best-managed financials in Canada. Good long-term hold. He prefers the one from top picks tonight, but there is no problem with this one.

2011-12-12

PAST TOP PICK

Glentel Inc.

GLN-T

16.250

(Top Pick Dec 6/10, 43.66%) Thinks it is still undervalued. Everyone wants to change phone every 6-month as new technology comes out.

2011-12-12

BUY

Wajax Corp

WJX-T

38.080

(Market Call Minute) Great execution. Boring company.

2011-12-12

PAST TOP PICK

MTY Food Group

MTY-T

15.300

(Top Pick Dec 6/10, Up 16.28) Took profits. It was a valuation call. Might come back into it. Management is fantastic and made good acquisitions over the last 6 months.

2011-12-12

BUY

TOT-T

16.950

Still a buy. Went down for no particular reason and then up again. He has no intention of selling it.

2011-12-12

BUY

Neo Material Technologies Inc.

6.940

5.5% dividend. Earnings in 2012 will be 25-30% higher. Dividend should go up in first or second quarter to stay above 5%, which is their policy. It is a cash cow on wheels. Right up at the top of his list.

2011-12-12

SPECULATIVE BUY

Pine Tree Capital Ltd.

PNP-T

1.370

A kind of lottery ticket company (a boutique financing house, a merchant bank). When company is bullish, harvest this stock and when everyone is bearish you accumulate it. Very counter intuitive.

2011-12-12

BUY

NEM-T

7.740

Love’s the company. Can’t believe how cheap this company is. You are going to wake up one day and one of the major mining companies is going to buy it up. It is about as undervalued as you can find them.

2011-12-12

HOLD

Equity Financial Holdings

EQI-T

9.050

(Market Call Minute) Great management team, but waiting for mortgage business to kick in.

2011-12-12

HOLD

Points International Ltd.

PTS-T

8.200

He is short this stock but thinks he might be wrong. He is thinking it is more of a hold. He would wait until the market was at a bottom and then would cover his short. Earnings are starting to back fill. It is not a screaming buy, but doesn’t know if there is much downside.

2011-12-12

TOP PICK

76.740

His top holding. Likes them because of value creation, return on capital. Had a great move this year. 52 week high today. Will perform very, very well next year. Has held it since he started the fund, but was buying a week and a half ago.

2011-12-12

DON'T BUY

Genworth MI Canada Inc.

MIC-T

20.070

There is a perception that they are not setting enough aside for insurance. It is hard to prove an insurance company is under funded.

2011-12-12

BUY

B2Gold Corp.

BTO-T

3.290

Only owns two gold companies and this is one. A good chart. This is what you want. Long slow up trend. A great stock to own. These are guys that are not learning as they go.

2011-12-12

PAST TOP PICK

Canyon Services Group

FRC-T

11.480

(Top Pick Dec 6/10, Up 2.5%) Unbelievably cheap. There is and press about fracking. Governments on either side of border may put restrictions on what they do any time.

2011-12-12

HOLD

OPMEDIC Group

OMG-T

4.610

Fertility clinics. Based in Quebec, good management. No immediate need for financing. Just a really great health care company. There is certainly a need. Not looking to add or get out of.

2011-12-12

HOLD

Canadian Western Bank

CWB-T

26.710

Has sold off with all of the general sentiments on financials but earnings are incredibly steady. Long and short term track records are superb. This is a growth story.

2011-10-17

BUY

Davis + Henderson

DH-T

16.340

This one or DirectCash (DCI-T) or First National (FN-T)? He prefers Davis + Henderson but Likes DirectCash too. A little more negative on First National. However, analysts don't seem to be too high on the stock. Excellent yield of 7.5% and it is a growth stock also.

2011-10-17

DON'T BUY

Dollarma Inc.

DOL-T

37.790

Good company and great management. In the right space but no longer has a good valuation at 15.5X earnings. There are so many good stocks out there.

2011-10-17

TOP PICK

CGI Group (A)

GIB.A-T

19.690

Every 4-5 days they announce a new contract win. Building up a great portfolio of contracts. On a go forward basis, they're trading at 7X next year's earnings. Very cheap.

2011-10-17

BUY

Home Capital Group

HCG-T

44.970

Expect they’ll have a good Q3. ROE never went below 25% through 2 severe economic downturns. Expecting the same thing. Trading on a forward multiple of around 6. Looking for the stock to be 20%-25% higher in the next 6 months or so.

2011-10-17

Comment

Mosaid

MSD-T (Dead)

40.610

Wi-Lan (WIN-T) is attempting a takeover. Offer to expire on Nov 1st. If nothing happens, he presumes the price on the stock will come off but it is still a good company to hold. He thinks there is another offer coming.

2011-10-17

DON'T BUY

Nuvista Energy Ltd

NVA-T

6.450

He wants to own energy stocks right now that have decent yields with some appreciation when oil goes up. This one discontinued their dividends in March/11.

2011-10-17

DON'T BUY

Parkland Fuel Corp

PKI-T

10.400

Sold his holdings when he found cash flows, relative to distributions, are not great. Feels the dividend is too high. They are either going to cut the distribution or there will be no growth.

2011-10-17

SELL

Sunlife Financial

SLF-T

24.070

Just warned on its quarter so stock had a big drop. Feels the dividend is safe. This is a mediocre company and there are better ones out there. Doesn't see any growth.

2011-10-17

HOLD

Trican Well Service Ltd.

TCW-T

17.800

This is a good one, but he has some wellness services he favours more. It's never the same day to day but currently is favourite is Total Energy Services (TOT-T). As long as oil is $80 or above, well services companies are good.

2011-10-17

Comment

0.020

Market. Likes valuations a lot but we have all these macroeconomic issues. As long as the market is going sideways he is not doing anything particularly aggressive on either the Buy or Sell side. He is light on cyclicals and long on growth stocks with good dividend yield.

2011-10-17

BUY

Total Energy Services Inc

0.020

Canadian banks? Feels the banks are pretty solid. Would be more down on the lifecos and a lot of the large asset managers. You have a lot of good choices. Over time you should be able to get a 12%-13% per annum return.

2011-10-17

HOLD

Boyd Group Income Fund

BYD.UN-T

9.600

Came screeching back when it $14. Really cheap at 7X earnings. Dividend is very secure. Hopefully it will be moving back up going forward.

2011-10-17

DON'T BUY

Phoenix Energy Services

PHX-T

8.820

Likes the technology and what they're doing but they have a tendency to have 3 good quarters in a row and then one bad one. He has been burned twice by them.

2011-10-17

PAST TOP PICK

Altus Group

AIF-T

3.570

(A Top Pick Oct 4/10. Down 72%.) Got out of this one reasonably well at $11.85. A bad pick.

2011-10-17

PAST TOP PICK

MTY Food Group

MTY-T

15.250

(A Top Pick Oct 4/10. Up 24.63%.) Stock rose today because of a takeover of another company. He took his profits.

2011-10-17

BUY

Gamehost Inc

GH-T

10.420

Core business is casinos and hotels in Calgary so a good play on Western Canada. Well-managed. Converted from an income fund to a Corporation and that is smoothing itself out. Healthy yield of 8.3%

2011-10-17

BUY

TOT-T

13.330

He likes return on capital and the CEO of this company gets that. Tend to grow their business in the down cycle so they have assets at the right time. Fantastic management team.

2011-10-17

BUY

Tim Hortons

THI-T

49.750

A superb business and they're getting their return on capital with share buyback, etc. Going to have that steady Eddie aspect.

2011-10-17

SELL

First National Financial

FN-T

14.160

Well-managed. Because of its growth rate it is rolling over. Earnings are really starting to flatten out. Expect that talk of the distribution cut will become more and more significant.

2011-10-17

TOP PICK

Wavefront Energy & Environment Services

6.080

Just raised their dividend to give a 5 .9% yield and feels they can grow by 25% so they should be substantially higher in a years time. Will probably raise their dividend in a years time again.

2011-10-17

DON'T BUY

WEE-X

0.530

Their enhanced oil recovery technology looks pretty good. There has been a massive valuation that this stock has had to grow back into. Revenues are not going to be anywhere close to what is required to make this a good holding.

2011-10-17

TOP PICK

Canadian Energy Services & Technology

70.000

Stock is up about 50% this year and feels the earnings will also be up 50% this year. Inexpensive on a PE multiple. Fantastic management.

2011-10-17

Comment

Western Potash

WPX-T

1.010

If you have a strong conviction that this will be taken out, then continue to hold but he looks at the market, which is really bombed out, and questions what his reward would be. If you're going to play this sector, he thinks that Potash (POT-T) is a great deal right now.

2011-10-17

DON'T BUY

Genworth MI Canada Inc.

MIC-T

20.470

Represents insurance against people that can't pay their mortgages. Feels it is a good company but is worried about what the naysayers say about it. He doesn't want to be on a stock where there is all this worry. Would prefer Home Capital (HCG-T) or if you want a pure dividend play, MCAN (MKP-T) would be the way to go.

2011-10-17

Comment

Legacy Oil + Gas Inc.

LEG-T

9.460

His issue with anything in the oil/gas industry at this stage, he wants to get a yield. His favourite company would be one like Freehold Royalties (FRU-T) that has a 10% yield. If oil pops back up to $100, this one could go up 50%-70% but he prefers to have a sure thing.

2011-10-17

PAST TOP PICK

CEU-T

11.000

(A Top Pick Oct 4/10. Up 92.27%.) 3 for 1 stock split in July. Still likes it. All free cash flow.

2011-10-17

BUY

Bank of Montreal

BMO-T

59.630

Of the 4 or 5 sub segments within large-cap financials, banks would be the area where he would be happiest. Reasonably priced. Shouldn't be difficult for them to get to the last peak of $70-$72 range in the next 12 months. 4.7% yield.

2011-09-08

DON'T BUY

CI Financial Corp

CIX-T

19.940

Doesn't think the stock is going anywhere. Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T) owns 1/3 so he doesn't expect it will get taken out. 4.5% dividend.

2011-09-08

SELL

Fairfax Financial

FFH-T

395.840

Very boring. There's not a lot in the large-cap financials that gets him excited. Better places to be.

2011-09-08

TOP PICK

CGI Group (A)

GIB.A-T

18.200

Trading at 7.5X 2012 earnings with a 22% ROE. A lot of its IT services are in the government sector. There is a lot of seasonality to technology and we are just entering a period now for technology companies. Should go back to $23-$24 pretty quickly.

2011-09-08

PAST TOP PICK

Home Capital Group

HCG-T

47.950

(A Top Pick Aug 30/10. Up 12.85%.) Even through the last 2 economic downturns, the ROE has never gone below 20%.

2011-09-08

Comment

Paladin Labs Inc

PLB-T

34.290

CEO suffered a serious head injury from a motorcycle accident, which is why the stock has dropped. Fabulous company with great management.

2011-09-08

Comment

Power Financial Corp

PWF-T

25.970

Not seeing enough to get excited among the big lumbering financials. Good dividend at 5.3%. Can see the stock being range bound a train $25 and $30. Think there are better opportunities for growth and dividends in some of the smaller financials.

2011-09-08

HOLD

Royal Bank

RY-T

48.920

Of the banks, this is not one of his favourites. There was a lot of anticipation that they would do quite well with capital markets coming back so there has been a lot of frustration.

2011-09-08

SELL

Thomson Reuters Corp

TRI-T

29.010

Not a big fan of what you are getting here. You are not getting a fantastically or terrifically managed company.

2011-09-08

Comment

Wi-Lan Inc.

WIN-T

7.150

Prefers Mosaid (MSD-T), which this company is trying to acquire as they have a bit of a profit hole they are trying to fill. Doesn't think this deal will go through. If it goes through, he likes the combined entity and would buy it.

2011-09-08

DON'T BUY

TSX Group

X-T

40.390

Has probably outperform the market in the last month or two but a lot of it is pretty much priced in right now. Doesn't see the value in this one right now.

2011-09-08

SELL

Intact Financial

IFC-T

54.410

Has done fairly well over the last 12-18 months but doesn't see how it keeps going from here. Probably the best managed insurance company in Canada. If you own, take profits and look elsewhere.

2011-09-08

HOLD

Boyd Group Income Fund

BYD.UN-T

10.480

A little frustrated because it got up to $14 and then came back. Did a financing at $11.75 so the stock dropped further. Has excellent cash flow but complex financial statements. Wouldn't add to this right now. Comfortable with a dividend as the cash flow is fine.

2011-09-08

PAST TOP PICK

DirectCash Payments Inc

DCI-T

21.210

(A Top Pick Aug 30/10. Up 23.53%.) Largest operator of independent ATMs.

2011-09-08

TOP PICK

Total Energy Services Inc

TOT-T

13.160

Good management team and really well diversified. With the price of oil going sideways, the producers are not the place to be. With oil at $85 they are busy and are making lots of money. Demand for rental services is high.

2011-09-08

SELL

Gluskin Sheff + Associates

GS-T

17.730

Very good company but they’ve had their issues. Bulk of their funds historically where in equities, which have high margins but because of their conservatism they are shifting into bonds with lower margins. Although the ROE is high, it is starting to compress. Growth in assets is starting to plateau. There is nothing in this sector that gets him excited.

2011-09-08

BUY

Neo Material Technologies Inc.

6.330

Just raised their dividend by 20%. Facing out of being an income trust. 4.9% yield.

2011-09-08

Comment

Pine Tree Capital Ltd.

PNP-T

1.810

Like a merchant bank holding company where they own 300-400 really highly speculative companies. If we are in a market trough and we go into a bull market, this thing will really pop. Not for the faint of heart.

2011-09-08

TOP PICK

NEM-T

8.850

Rare Earth. Making a huge amount of money and has a great balance sheet. Diversifying into other areas. Very cheap. When the gloom lifts, this stock should go to $15 very quickly.

2011-09-08

BUY

Equity Financial Holdings

EQI-T

10.590

If you are looking for a financial company that is coming out of the chutes, this is one. Starting to move into mortgage lending, which will probably have a big ramp up next year or the year after. Good management.

2011-09-08

Comment

Open Range Energy Corp.

ONR-T

9.370

Just spun off their services division and the stock took off. The producer left over is still a pretty good company. He is not big into Junior/intermediate producers right now from a technical point of view. He would come back to this one when he got excited about the sector.

2011-09-08

PAST TOP PICK