| WEAK BUY | | Canadian National R.R. | CNR-T | 55.820 | Railroads have advantages in fuel over truckers. Is considering, at possible entry points. Doesn't own now. | 2007-06-12 | |
| WEAK BUY | | Coca-Cola Company | KO-N | 51.140 | Trading around fair value. Is okay not very exciting. A low single digit grower with a positive dividend yield. | 2007-06-12 | |
| WEAK BUY | | Proctor & Gamble | PG-N | 62.160 | Prefers business with more volatility in the share price. PG is a great company with great predictability, single digit growth + dividend .High level of safety. | 2007-06-12 | |
| Comment | | IPSCO Inc | IPS-T | 167.800 | Is in the process of being taken over. Doesn't expect any competing offers.It will stay at it's current level, subject to the difference in the Canadian US dollar. | 2007-06-12 | |
| Comment | | TSX Group | X-T | 42.770 | Is finally having some deceleration in it's earning momentum. It's been generally well managed. Is a quasi-monopoly, with competition coming on.It will need to lower it's rates, which is good for consumers. | 2007-06-12 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Petro-Can | PCA-T | 53.410 | Doesn't think it's a takeover target. Better value elsewhere, although he likes it.He likes suncore, and canadian oil sands plus. | 2007-06-12 | |
| STRONG BUY | | CitiGroup | C-N | 52.600 | One of his largest holdings in one of his funds. A financial services colossus.Almost half of their income comes from non-US funds.4% dividend yield, trades around 12 times earnings, so is attractively valued.Hasn't done as well as some of it's peers, due to high expenses. Thinks this will be fixed, due to pressure from shareholders or internally. $53 is a good entry point. | 2007-06-12 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | CML Healthcare Income Fund | CLC.UN-T | 15.870 | From May31 2006Then $14.63Still holding, would have done better if the tax law hadn't changed.Still expects a total return of low double digits over next 4 or 5 years, even if you bought now. | 2007-06-12 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Home Depot | HD-N | 37.360 | Then $38.12Weakness in housing and home improvement retailing. Has sold it. | 2007-06-12 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | D R Horton Inc. | DHI-N | 21.150 | Then $26.36Mortgage meltdown hurt it. Has bought significantly at recent levels. | 2007-06-12 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Daimlerchrysler | DAI-N | 87.840 | Doesn't like. Too much like investing in airlines. | 2007-06-12 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Anheuser Busch Companies Inc. | BUD-N | 52.910 | Long term stable free cash generating. Sees growth in high single digits, which doesn't excite him. | 2007-06-12 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | | Sunlife Financial | SLF-T | 48.800 | A great long term performer. He owns Manulife, Sunlife and Great West. Sunlife doesn't get any respect (Rodney Dangerfield). Trading around 12 times earnings + dividend. Not surprising to see a little pull back, so worth while to buy now. | 2007-06-12 | |
| WEAK BUY | | ConocoPhillips | COP-N | 77.115 | Prefers the oil sands companies, to the conventional oil producers. On his short list of potentials though. | 2007-06-12 | |
| BUY | | Manulife Financial | MFC-T | 38.700 | Has reduced his holdings a year ago, but still owns.Stock has tracked sideways for the last year, and earnings have increased.Manulife has vast operations in the US, which will show as an earnings slowdown due to the rising Canadian vs US dollar. Sunlife is more appealing on valuation, however Manulife has done a better job on earnings growth. | 2007-06-12 | |
| SELL | | MDS Inc | MDS-T | 21.050 | Used to hold it, but it didn't perform as well as some of it's peers. Only holds in some minor funds. | 2007-06-12 | |
| DON'T BUY | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Gold is the worlds worst commodity. Only one with decades worth of supply. | 2007-06-12 | |
| DON'T BUY | | EnCana Corp. | ECA-N | 62.340 | Doesn't like. No material exposure to oil sands (which he likes). Significant hedgers in the past. | 2007-06-12 | |
| TOP PICK | | D R Horton Inc. | DHI-N | 21.150 | Largest home builder in the US.Home building will be down 30% from it's peak in 2005, in number of homes constructed. He thinks we are at or near the bottom. They generate over a billion in free cash flow this year, which they will probably use to buy back shares later in the year, if they don't see an increase in their business or stock prices.It's trading at the low end of it's historic range, and you are going to get a good rate of return. | 2007-06-12 | |
| TOP PICK | | National Bank of Canada | NA-T | 61.760 | Sometimes is out of favor. Trading at 11 times earnings with a 4% dividend yield. Good return with limited downside. | 2007-06-12 | |
| TOP PICK | | Patterson UTI Energy Inc. | PTEN-Q | 26.130 | 2nd largest land based driller in the US, bit more Natural gas wells.US natural gas production has been flat, even though the number of wells has tripled. Very good news for businesses which are drilling.Thinks we are in the early stages of an upturn in natural gas. | 2007-06-12 | |
| TOP PICK | | CML Healthcare Income Fund | CLC.UN-T | 12.280 | (A Top Pick Jan 7/06. Down 16.6%.) Got hit with the trust tax changes. From present valuations it offers very good long-term returns. Health care spending continues to rise. Have about a 30% share of Ontario’s diagnostic testing. Also the national leader in medical imaging. Yield of almost 8%. | 2006-11-13 | |
| TOP PICK | | D R Horton Inc. | DHI-N | 22.380 | Largest homebuilder in the US. Year-end results are being reported this week along with 2007 guidance. They won’t be pretty. Trading just above book value. Great long term track record. Strong management. Strong financial position. Great price for the long-term investor. | 2006-11-13 | |
| TOP PICK | | Radian Group Inc | RDN-N | 53.210 | Home insurance. Generates huge amounts of free cash flow. Trading at only about 9Xearnings and just above tangible book value. Good management. Great price for the long-term investor. | 2006-11-13 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Wal-Mart Stores Inc. | WMT-N | 46.320 | (A Top Pick Jan 7/06. Up 3.4%.) A great business. Largest company in its industry in the world. Great prospects with their international diversification. | 2006-11-13 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | PMI Group Inc | PMI-N | 42.890 | (A Top Pick Jan 7/06. No change.) Private mortgage insurance. Mortgage losses have started to rise. Very good value. | 2006-11-13 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Ford Motor | F-N | 8.870 | Ford (F-N) and General Motors (GM-N) do not meet his criteria of being long-term growth companies, financially strong, gaining market share, generating substantial free cash flow and with long-term sustainable competitive advantages. | 2006-11-13 | |
| DON'T BUY | | General Motors Corporation | GM-N | 35.090 | Ford (F-N) and General Motors (GM-N) do not meet his criteria of being long-term growth companies, financially strong, gaining market share, generating substantial free cash flow and with long-term sustainable competitive advantages. | 2006-11-13 | |
| BUY | | Royal Bank | RY-T | 52.530 | One of Canada’s finest companies. Has been a tremendous performer and will continue to be. A tremendous franchise in both the bank and RBC Dominion Securities. US problems appear to be being addressed. A lot of free cash flow. Good dividend. | 2006-11-13 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Talisman Energy | TLM-T | 18.270 | Different than the other oil companies in that it has nothing in the oil sands and is in some jurisdictions with higher political risks. Prefers others. | 2006-11-13 | |
| WEAK BUY | | Brookfield Asset Management (A) | BAM.A-T | 52.520 | Doesn’t like dual class stocks where management has one group of shares, controlling the business with a tiny slice of the equity. Have done a great job. Likes their long life predictable assets of power generating facilities. | 2006-11-13 | |
| BUY | | Sunlife Financial | SLF-T | 48.220 | Pays a steady and rising dividend. The “Rodney Dangerfield” of life and health insurance. No respect. A significant and growing presence in Asia. Good value. | 2006-11-13 | |
| BUY | | Shaw Communication (B) | SJR.B-T | 34.500 | Has a great long-term track record. Unlike Rogers (RCI.B-T) in Ontario, they are missing wireless and they may try to do something which could be quite expensive. | 2006-11-13 | |
| BUY | | Petro-Can | PCA-T | 50.200 | An excellent large energy business. Prefers Suncor (SU-T) and Canadian Oil Sand (COS.UN-T), which are pure plays in the oil sands. Has stumbled on the east coast. Good long-term opportunity. | 2006-11-13 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Precision Drilling Corp. | PD.UN-T | 25.450 | In response to dramatically higher costs for oil/ga drilling and services, as well as lower commodity prices, exploration spending has been cut substantially. Prefers the companies that own the reserves. | 2006-11-13 | |
| Comment | | Canadian Tire Corporation Ltd | CTC-T | 102.250 | Valuation is around 17Xearnings and is substantially higher than its peers. | 2006-11-13 | |
| Comment | | Canadian Natural Rsrcs | CNQ-T | 57.290 | One of Canada’s finest companies. Historically a conventional oil/gas company. Good at acquisitions. In the Horizon Oil Sands project. Doesn’t like that they give adjusted earnings disclosure, which excludes stock based compensation. | 2006-11-13 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Penn West Energy Trust | PWT.UN-T | 32.730 | On average doesn’t find trusts to be as attractively valued as corporations. For the same $1 of investment, you can buy more reserves or production or earnings or cash flow, etc by buying a high quality corporation. | 2006-11-13 | |
| BUY | | CI Financial Income Fund | CIX.UN-T | 24.480 | A tremendous long-term business. Low cost producer. Great demographics. | 2006-11-13 | |
| BUY | | Bank of America | BAC-N | 54.460 | Very high dividend. Great earnings. Significant presence in US banking. Acquired MBA. Attractive valuation at 12Xearnings. | 2006-11-13 | |
| Comment | | ING Canada Inc. | IIC-T | 54.930 | Doesn’t like its dual class stock. They’ve done exceptionally well. | 2006-11-13 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Peyto Energy Trust | PEY.UN-T | 17.450 | If we have a warm winter, gas prices will collapse. Has a great long-term track record. Pound for pound, dollar for dollar, you can get better value in corporations. | 2006-11-13 | |
| HOLD | | Toronto Dominion | TD-T | 59.730 | Rate of return will be high single digit/low double digit, if bought and held for 5 years. This includes dividend and the rest from capital gains. Good price. | 2006-05-31 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Canadian Natural Rsrcs | CNQ-T | 58.000 | Would be on his list of potential purchases. Have done a fabulous job. Likes its oil sands involvement. Too expensive at 14 X earnings. | 2006-05-31 | |
| HOLD | | Royal Bank | RY-T | 45.000 | Good management and good decision-making. All the Canadian banks, in spite of the pullback, are still only fair value. | 2006-05-31 | |
| WAIT | | Petro-Can | PCA-T | 50.020 | Has an attractive portfolio of assets. Likes its involvement in the oil sands. Reasonable value at 11 X earnings, but would like to see all the energy companies at lower prices than what they are today. | 2006-05-31 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Wal-Mart Stores Inc. | WMT-N | 48.450 | (A Top Pick Jan 17/06. Up 6.4%.) It did what he hoped, i.e. slow and steady with a predictable return. | 2006-05-31 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | PMI Group Inc | PMI-N | 45.500 | (A Top Pick Jan 17/06. Up 5.5%.) Things continue to go well with this company. | 2006-05-31 | |
| TOP PICK | | CML Healthcare Income Fund | CLC.UN-T | 14.630 | (A Top Pick Jan 17/06. No change.) Distribution yield of 7%. The leader in the private pay medical systems in Canada. They provide 2 services, medical imaging and lab testing. Strong financial position and great management. Trades at 13 X earnings and yields 7%. | 2006-05-31 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Enbridge | ENB-T | 34.550 | An outstanding business. Have done a fabulous job over a long period of time. Because everybody is chasing yields, pipeline company's trading at 18 X earnings simply because they have a high payout ratio of earnings. Too expensive. | 2006-05-31 | |
| WAIT | | Alimentation Couche-Tard (B) | ATD.B-T | 25.250 | You can invest in it through Metro (MRU.A-T) (owns a small position) or by direct. Great long-term track record. Substantial exposure to the US. Hoping for a better buying opportunity. | 2006-05-31 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Microsoft | MSFT-Q | 22.650 | Regular dividend yield is about 1.5%. A great company with a great long-term track record. Trading at 19 X earnings for only 7% growth. | 2006-05-31 | |
| DON'T BUY | | TSX Group | X-T | 44.800 | Sufficiently cautious on the outlook for equity markets that he would prefer to see a much lower valuation. | 2006-05-31 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Suncor Energy Inc | SU-T | 88.880 | Virtually a pure play on oil sands. Long reserve life. Still have plans to double their production over the next 6/7 years. Great management. Fully valued. | 2006-05-31 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Best Buy Company Inc | BBY-N | 53.000 | Doesn't find the price that attractive. There is a legitimate concern that there has to be a slowdown in consumer spending in the US. | 2006-05-31 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Thomson Reuters Corp | TRI-T | 46.500 | Has had 4% growth in earnings per share since 1989 with a decent dividend yield. Strong financial position. There has been a little bit of acceleration in growth recently but not big enough to indicate a change. Can do better elsewhere. | 2006-05-31 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Ford Motor | F-N | 7.160 | All investors should do themselves a favour and swear off ever owning an airline or auto company. You'll be much further ahead over the long term. | 2006-05-31 | |
| BUY | | Sunlife Financial | SLF-T | 45.180 | About 1/3 of their income is from the US which has been translating into lesser amounts of Cdn$’s. It doesn't get the respect it deserves. Cheaper than its peers. Thinks they have done a very good job. | 2006-05-31 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Manulife Financial | MFC-T | 36.250 | Has done so well, he has reduced his holdings significantly. At 18 X trailing earnings it was becoming fully valued. | 2006-05-31 | |
| TOP PICK | | Home Depot | HD-N | 38.120 | It seems there is an apocalyptic sentiment on anything related to housing. This is driven prices down giving an opportunity to buy at a good price. Trades at 12 X this year's earnings. | 2006-05-31 | |
| TOP PICK | | D R Horton Inc. | DHI-N | 26.360 | The largest homebuilder in the US. One of the finest companies in America in any industry. Has a tremendous long-term track record. Has never had a down year in earnings for the last 28 years. | 2006-05-31 | |
| BUY | | Bank of Nova Scotia | BNS-T | 45.970 | It is clearly one of Canada's best companies in any industry. Outstanding long-term track record. Likes their moves into Latin and Central Americas and they have done fabulously well with this. Trading around 14 X this year's earnings which is not terribly cheap. 3% dividend yield. | 2006-01-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | | streetTracks Gold E.T.F. | GLD-N | 55.260 | Not a gold bull. Gold is at a 25-year high which really means that the return on gold over the last 25 years has been 0. At the same time, you could have bought any number of equity and had a tenfold increase. If you focus on the long-term, ownership of good businesses bought at good prices will trounce the long-term return on any gold. | 2006-01-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Research In Motion | RIM-T | 78.830 | The company's record, as good as it is, is relatively short and the valuation of the business doesn't provide a margin of safety. There is no basis on which to make a long-term projection which he wants to do for his clients. Competition is starting to show up. Too risky. | 2006-01-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | | American International Group | AIG-N | 69.040 | Had some accounting problems last year and the stock took a drop but has now recovered. Can find better value in other insurance companies. | 2006-01-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | | FedEx | FDX-N | 98.190 | The global growth and trade is driving the success of a lot of industries. Doesn't feel the company was being candid about their stock option expensing so didn't buy the stock last year. At the current price, thinks you can get better value elsewhere. An outstanding business. | 2006-01-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Canadian National R.R. | CNR-T | 90.900 | The company has done fabulously well. The global growth in trade and commodities has really been tremendous for them. Has delivered earnings growth which he has found surprising. Present valuation looks too high for him. | 2006-01-17 | |
| WATCH | | Encana Corp | ECA-T | 56.350 | Did well because of commodity prices which is not in their control. Looking at what is in their control, management has made a number of mistakes, e.g. selling out of the Syncrude project, hedging vast amounts of natural gas which cost them and a lot of value was given to employees through stock appreciation rights which cost over $100 million. The new CEO may make a change. | 2006-01-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | | General Motors Corporation | GM-N | 19.820 | Feels that GM, Ford, and to a lesser extent Chrysler between a rock and a hard place. Losing market share. Has extra ordinarily high costs with unfunded pension and health care benefits. | 2006-01-17 | |
| TOP PICK | | CML Healthcare Income Fund | CLC.UN-T | 14.730 | (A Top Pick Sept 22/05. Up 3.5%.) Healthcare spending is going to continue to rise at a rate faster than the overall economy. Private-sector involvement is going to continue to increase. This is the best private-sector healthcare company. | 2006-01-17 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Radian Group Inc | RDN-N | 59.260 | (A Top Pick Sept 22/05. Up 16%.) Still likes. | 2006-01-17 | |
| TOP PICK | | Wal-Mart Stores Inc. | WMT-N | 44.950 | (A Top Pick Sept 22/05. Up 5%.) Likes the predictability of its earnings and earnings growth. The largest food retailer in the US. Global leadership in discount retailing. | 2006-01-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Trans Canada Corp | TRP-T | 35.330 | Sell or writing call options? Utilities have done fabulously well. Now you have high P/E’s in the low 20’s because the market has been chasing yield. Just focusing on yields, you can end up paying too much relative to the earnings. You can find far better value elsewhere. | 2006-01-17 | |
| BUY | | Sunlife Financial | SLF-T | 47.650 | A great business. Has expanded globally. Valuation is reasonable. Trades at a slightly lower valuation than others, which it doesn't deserve. | 2006-01-17 | |
| BUY | | Rona Inc | RON-T | 21.250 | Valuation is quite reasonable at this level. Stock price has dropped because of fears of a housing bubble and if there might be a slowdown in home improvement levels. | 2006-01-17 | |
| STRONG BUY | | Colgate Palmolive | CL-N | 54.490 | Has grown their earnings, book values and dividends consistently but the stock has done little if anything. The result is a low P/E in the high teens. This has created an opportunity. You could get high single digit growth and a couple of points more with dividend growth. | 2006-01-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Canadian Western Bank | CWB-T | 37.870 | The positive is that it is based in western Canada which has the highest rate of economic growth. The environment in which they are operating is very good. However, the valuation is very high for a bank. | 2006-01-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Jean Coutu Group (PJC) (A) | PJC.A-T | 15.250 | Whenever you see a successful business stumble and have a significant decline in the stock price, be cautious. When they took over Eckards in the US, their debt increased dramatically. They have not yet demonstrated success in achieving good results with Eckards. Too much financial risk for him and too speculative. | 2006-01-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Starbucks | SBUX-Q | 31.140 | It’s at 50 X earnings which is difficult to justify. | 2006-01-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Cameco Corporation | CCO-T | 83.550 | He is a believer that we are at the peak in world oil production and if that’s true we will likely have sustained high energy prices including nuclear and uranium. However, that is more than amply discounted in the stock price. They have locked in prices that are far lower than the spot price, so an increase in uranium prices may not affect them. | 2006-01-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Compton Petroleum | CMT-T | 18.840 | Trading at a little lower P/E than the other banks, but deservedly so since it has the worst capital ratios because of Enron. The next little while, it will be repairing the capital ratios. Would prefer other banks. | 2006-01-17 | |
| TOP PICK | | PMI Group Inc | PMI-N | 42.670 | They are in private mortgage insurance. Has lagged its group for no particular reason. Trades around 9 X earnings, not much over tangible book value. Great company. Strong financial position. | 2006-01-17 | |
| BUY | | C.I.Fund Management | CIX-T | 22.650 | A very well run business. Moved up on an announcement of intent to convert to a trust. Government has put a hold on trust conversions, so has pulled back. A good holding. | 2005-09-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Pfizer Inc | PFE-N | 25.250 | Drug stars such as Pfizer (PFE-N) Merck (MRK-N), etc. are attractively valued but are clearly out of favour. They have great long term track records and are in strong financial positions, however, there is a lack of predictability regarding the science. Doesn't like the cash flow dynamics where they spend billions up front with no sure win ahead. Litigation risks. | 2005-09-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Merck & Company | MRK-N | 27.600 | Drug stars such as Pfizer (PFE-N) Merck (MRK-N), etc. are attractively valued but are clearly out of favour. They have great long term track records and are in strong financial positions, however, there is a lack of predictability regarding the science. Doesn't like the cash flow dynamics where they spend billions up front with no sure win ahead. Litigation risks. | 2005-09-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Canadian Western Bank | CWB-T | 38.100 | The company and stock price has done fabulously well. There is no end in sight to the boom in Alberta. Expect they might lower corporate tax rates down the road. Trading at 18/19 X earnings which is expensive to him. | 2005-09-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Trans Canada Corp | TRP-T | 36.000 | Utilities, pipelines, etc. have done fabulously well and benefited from growth in the Price/Earnings ratio which has grown from a typical 12 to 18. Very little room for expansion in the P/E ratio. You'll have single digit growth and a reasonable dividend yield. Would consider paring back and moving into better areas. | 2005-09-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Brascan Corporation | BAM.LV.A-T | 51.820 | Utilities, pipelines, etc. have done fabulously well and benefited from growth in the Price/Earnings ratio which has grown from a typical 12 to 18. Very little room for expansion in the P/E ratio. You'll have single digit growth and a reasonable dividend yield. Would consider paring back and moving into better areas. | 2005-09-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Transalta Corp | TA-T | 22.870 | Utilities, pipelines, etc. have done fabulously well and benefited from growth in the Price/Earnings ratio which has grown from a typical 12 to 18. Very little room for expansion in the P/E ratio. You'll have single digit growth and a reasonable dividend yield. Would consider paring back and moving into better areas. | 2005-09-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Fortis Inc. | FTS-T | 90.890 | Utilities, pipelines, etc. have done fabulously well and benefited from growth in the Price/Earnings ratio which has grown from a typical 12 to 18. Very little room for expansion in the P/E ratio. You'll have single digit growth and a reasonable dividend yield. Would consider paring back and moving into better areas. | 2005-09-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Precision Drilling | PD-T | 57.240 | Has done a faboulous job. Could be OK for short term trades but this is not how he invests. | 2005-09-22 | |
| TOP PICK | | CML Healthcare Income Fund | CLC.UN-T | 14.100 | (A Top Pick July 6/05. Up 13% plus distributions.) Canada's best health care company and it's attractively valued. Still substantial growth prospects in medical imagery and lab testing. MDS (MDS-T) is selling its lab business which could be a possible acquisition for them. | 2005-09-22 | |
| TOP PICK | | Radian Group Inc | RDN-N | 50.900 | (A Top Pick July 6/05. Up 10%.) Trading at not much over book value at 9 X earnings. One of the leaders in mortgage insurance in the US. Also has businesses engaged in distressed credit of buying distressed mortgages and consumer debt. | 2005-09-22 | |
| TOP PICK | | Wal-Mart Stores Inc. | WMT-N | 43.190 | (A Top Pick July 6/05. Down 11%.) At a 6 year low in terms of stock price and an 8 year low in terms of price earnings and price sales at 14 X next year's earnings. The largest food retailer in the US. Expects mid teen compound annual rate of return as well as share repurchases. | 2005-09-22 | |
| HOLD | | PetroKazakhstan Inc | PKZ-T | 63.250 | The next several weeks are going to be very interesting. Have been some big developments this week with a formal offer coming in from China. Could be a counter bid from India. He would take some of the money off the table. Stock is cheap selling below net asset value. He is prepared to invest in this as a going concern. | 2005-09-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Canadian Natural Rsrcs | CNQ-T | 53.110 | Has had a fabulous run. Has a project, Horizon, in the oil sands which he likes. The risk on Horizon is that it could go vastly over budget. Prefers unhedged. They hedged a lot early this year in order to lock in revenues and cash flows which has cost them an enormous amount of money. Would be interested in a big pull back. Better opportunities elsewhere. | 2005-09-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Shell Canada | SHC-T | 40.250 | A great business and they keep their production completely unhedged. Own 60% of the Athabaskan oil sands project. A high standard of corporate governance. Any downward fluctuation in oil price could create an enormous risk. | 2005-09-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Thomson Reuters Corp | TRI-T | 44.020 | They dominate the US market in legal information. Most of its earnings are in the US, so could have a currency risk. Stable dividend. Expect a slow growth rate in the single digit araea. | 2005-09-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Potash Corp of Saskatchewan | POT-T | 108.780 | Valuation doesn't leave much room for error at 20 X the highest earnings that the business has ever achieved. Better choices of investment elsewhere. | 2005-09-22 | |
| BUY | | Manulife Financial | MFC-T | 59.950 | Hurricane Katrina did not affect it very much. 45% of its earnings are from the US, so there is a currency risk. Expect it to continue to do very well over the long term. | 2005-09-22 | |
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