STOCKCHASE

Crescent Point Energy Corp

13.730

(A Top Pick Sept 22/11. Up 56.24%.) Sold his holdings mid-13 because it is trading at a much higher EBITDA. Also Suncor’s (SU-T) contract expires towards the end of 2013. Had benefited from a wider crack spread, which is not as wide now.

2012-04-26

DON'T BUY

Russel Metals

RUS-T

26.740

They have earnings momentum. Have encountered softer steel prices but that has been offset by strength in tubular energy demand in the oil patch. Wonderful balance sheet. Debt to EBITDA is only 0.15%. Thinks the dividend is very safe. Getting a little pricey here.

2012-04-26

TOP PICK

Royal Bank

RY-T

56.590

Pretty good valuation. Likes the banks as a group. Royal is the one that can grow the most from a normalizing world. Their wholesale earnings had improved a great deal and hopefully it will repeat going forward. Recent acquisition will be accretive and they got it a really good price.

2012-04-26

PAST TOP PICK

Shoppers Drug Mart Corp

SC-T

42.000

(A Top Pick Sept 22/11. Up 5.34%.) Same store sales have been very good and they have increased the writing of prescriptions. The deflationary pricing will hurt a lot of the smaller businesses and the business will come to this store.

2012-04-26

DON'T BUY

SNC-Lavalin Group Inc.

SNC-T

36.780

Doesn't follow this name that closely but looking at the chart, he wouldn't touch it except as a trading vehicle. These things usually take a very long time to play out.

2012-04-26

TOP PICK

Vermilion Energy Inc

VET-T

46.340

60% is derived from the higher priced Brent oil pricing. Have had great earnings and production momentum. Management thinks they can get to 50,000 barrels a day by 2015 and are on track. Really strong net backs and double digit earnings growth. Also good at making acquisitions.

2012-04-26

BUY on WEAKNESS

Baytex Energy Corp

BTE-T

52.760

Great company and he likes it a lot. Would try to buy it at around $51. One of the best producers out there and has been really punished on the heavy oil thing, which they have mitigated quite a bit by railing 15% to higher paying markets.

2012-04-26

BUY on WEAKNESS

Killam Properties Inc

KMP-T

13.180

Trades at a very high valuation but they do have a higher compound growth rate. Positioned mainly out east which is where the new Irving contract is coming on. Likes the name a lot, but would try to buy on a pull back.

2012-04-26

Comment

CPG-T

43.190

EPS vs. Dividends? A lot of bank stocks pay out about half of the EPS as dividends, but this company, with EPS of $.71, pays out dividend of $2.76, about 4 X the EPS. How is that sustainable? This has been working for many years and for this company, it is a fabulous asset that has been growing very well.

2012-04-26

Comment

0.020

Markets. Last year Europe was not on most investors’ radar screen. Now everyone is hunkered down and ready for it. Also thinks the policymakers are a little bit further along. Any sort of weakness you get from Europe, at some point you are going to want to add to quality positions. There are a lot of supportive factors such as the Fed yesterday, China that has widened their currency band and earnings in the US have been great. Valuations are still relatively attractive.

2012-04-26

Comment

0.020

Sentry Canadian Income Fund? Claim they can take some of the volatility out of investing but still returning their dividend income monthly. MER is over 2%. Thoughts? Mutual funds can be a very good way to go. If you have good active management that can really identify the companies that are more likely to grow their dividends, it is worth it to pay for that active management.

2012-04-26

Comment

Student Transport of America Ltd.

0.020

RRIF. Canadian dividend stock versus GIC? Depends on your risk tolerance. You are better off having a dividend stock in a taxable account so you can enjoy the dividend tax credit. He would prefer dividend stocks.

2012-04-26

PAST TOP PICK

Intact Financial

IFC-T

61.860

(A Top Pick Sept 22/11. Up 14.85%.) Still buying. Property/casualty insurers are a great place to be. Very defensive. This company has great return on equity relative to the industry.

2012-04-26

BUY

STB-T

6.800

Very sustainable yield. About an 85% payout ratio for 2012. This company is an industry consolidator. Have been winning a lot of contracts with a lot of fuel mitigation clauses. Margins of around 20%.

2012-04-26

Comment

Primaris Retail REIT

PMZ.UN-T

22.780

Not cheap relative to the group and there aren't too many catalysts for 2012. Growth is lagging their peers. Think they will only be good for about $150 million this year. Also not doing well on leasing spreads at only about 4% versus 10%.

2012-04-26

DON'T BUY

Wajax Corp

WJX-T

49.650

Equipment Services. Good place to be. Order book remains very strong. Earnings momentum is good. Good dividend growth. Probably way mispriced relative to Finning (FTT-T) at this point. Wait for a pullback.

2012-04-26

PARTIAL SELL

Canexus Corp

CUS-T

7.980

Had a pretty good run for a couple of years now. Benefited from strength in North American paper bleaching and Brazilian strength. Now they are benefiting from strength in oil sands. Management says they have $200-$250 million of growth prospects over the next 5 years that is probably going to add $40-$50 million in revenue. Also had a lot of earnings momentum. Dividend is sustainable. Getting a little pricey. If you own, consider trimming your position.

2012-04-26

BUY on WEAKNESS

Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust

CRR.UN-T

14.110

Exposure out east is going to benefit them with the new Irving ship building. Just bought a portfolio in Ontario and probably paid a little too much but thinks it helps solidify their portfolio and their geography. Decent growth.

2012-04-26

Comment

TransGlobe Apartment REIT

TGA.UN-T

14.270

Going private and whether you should sell at what the stated price is, he hasn’t had a chance to study it.

2012-04-26

TOP PICK

Gibson Energy

GEI-T

21.800

Pipelines. Basically pick up oil from the well head and do everything in between to get it to the refiner. Try to touch the barrel several times in that process and try to make money on every touch. Opening new contracts all the time. Keep increasing their dividends. Trades at a slight discount to other names in the group.

2012-04-26

BUY

BMO Canadian Dividend ETF

ZDV-T

16.100

A one-stop way of building positions. You will probably get good dividend growth over time.

2012-04-26

TOP PICK

Canadian National R.R.

CNR-T

77.710

Normally trades at forward PE of 14 and is at 12.9. Management was a little bit cautious in their guidance and he expects their dividends to rise. A bit of a pension headwind that the market didn’t like. Will continue to grow at 10-12% over the next couple of years. It is a bit of a moderate risk play on the global growth thesis.

2012-03-13

PAST TOP PICK

Cominar Real Estate Inv Tr

CUF.UN-T

24.070

(Top Pick Nov 30/11, Up 9.32%)

2012-03-13

DON'T BUY

Fortis Inc.

FTS-T

32.870

Challenged right now. Valuation is stretched right now. BCE is doing a cost review right now. Just did an acquisition in the states and probably paid too much and will take some time to be accretive. Dividend is save and payout ratio is ok,

2012-03-13

TOP PICK

Finning Int

FTT-T

29.800

A bit miss-priced, trading below its historical range. Announced 5% growth, which he thinks is a bit cautious. Had some cost pressures in their Canadian operations, which will abate. Can raise the dividend toward the second half. Capital has gone towards their competitors, leaving them miss-priced.

2012-03-13

WAIT

H&R Real Estate Inv Trust

HR.UN-T

24.580

All these REITs have had a very big move. Valuations are even driven up to account for speculations on take-outs. Earnings were ok recently. He would wait for a pullback.

2012-03-13

BUY

Husky Energy

HSE-T

26.540

Says their production growth is 3% this year, vs. piers at 8%. The opportunity is in 2014 when they have 3 important assets coming on stream. Market may respond in the next 12 months. You have to be patient. You will probably have a better opportunity over the summer to get in.

2012-03-13

PAST TOP PICK

InnVest Reit

INN.UN-T

5.370

(Top Pick Nov 30/11, Up 26.91%) Made a big move, sold a bit of it into the strength.

2012-03-13

DON'T BUY

RioCan Real Estate Investment

13.670

Distribution is safe for now. A TOP PICK last September for him. At this point its valuations are getting a little bit stretched. Payout ratios are safe for this year and probably next. In 2013 they loose 20% of supply contracts with Suncor and they have to replace that.

2012-03-13

BUY

REI.UN-T

27.380

Great long-term buy. Probably a transitional year. 96% leased properties. But a lot of down properties could impact revenue this year. There is a lot of upside and they have always grown by acquisition. Likes that 50% of future acquisitions are probably in the US where there are better opportunities.

2012-03-13

BUY

Royal Bank

RY-T

58.000

He thinks there is probably a lot of upside on the banks here. There is reasonable earnings growth. There is probably good dividend growth. RY had a great turnaround on wholesale and retail numbers. You could buy it right here.

2012-03-13

WAIT

Suncor Energy Inc

SU-T

34.040

Dividend looks pretty safe for now. Capital ratio is pretty ok. Views that they have an interesting opportunity to turn their business around in the States. If bond markets tick up, this one may do better.

2012-03-13

BUY on WEAKNESS

TransForce Inc.

TFI-T

17.280

Great growth. 20% this year, 12% next year. They have pricing power in their business. Have done a good job of acquiring companies recently. It is getting pricey right now. Is outside of its normal trading range. He would buy on a pullback.

2012-03-13

PAST TOP PICK

Trans Canada Corp

TRP-T

44.530

(Top Pick Nov 30/11, Up 3.71%) Announced 2.8 billion in new purchases. Good buy, but there is noise.

2012-03-13

DON'T BUY

Progress Energy Resources Corp

PRQ-T

10.910

Probably not an acquisition target. Progress has responded by having to lower CAP X and cut production by 10%. Very low cost producer. Production is completely unhedged this year. Would prefer ARC.

2012-03-13

N/A

iShares S&P 500 (CAD-Hedged) ETF

0.020

Markets: Equities are still an under owned asset glass. Markets are likely to continue to rally and pullbacks will be shallow as long as European leaders are constructive. The yield play is getting tougher. It is hard to find companies that are miss priced and are likely to raise their dividend. Protection strategies are protecting against systemic risk and the downside risk.

2012-03-13

TOP PICK

XSP-T

15.940

Nat Gas will be compress for a little bit. Golds are dealing with cost pressures. Metal are getting pinched from China. Insurance companies in the states are cheaper and banks really do have a better opportunity if things get better down there. Canadians do not own enough of the US because of all the false starts.

2012-03-13

SPECULATIVE BUY

Bombardier Inc (B)

BBD.B-T

3.780

In the near future, this could be your classic risk on trade. If Europe is getting better and the grand plan is coming in, this could have a real pop. Has been a victim of tax loss selling. Likes it for a trade into the new year.

2011-11-30

TOP PICK

Cominar Real Estate Inv Tr

CUF.UN-T

22.480

Just made a hostile bid for another REIT, which would complement their portfolio. Almost 50% of their leases expire over the next 2 years. Management wants to double over the next 5 years through acquisitions. Good yield.

2011-11-30

BUY on WEAKNESS

Enbridge

ENB-T

36.140

Very good balance sheet. Great dividend, which is well supported. Guidelines are a great place to be in this environment. Trying to buy at the 200 day moving average on a big pullback.

2011-11-30

HOLD

Husky Energy

HSE-T

25.400

Believes the dividend is safe. Have a pretty good turnaround strategy. There are better names in this space.

2011-11-30

TOP PICK

InnVest Reit

INN.UN-T

4.310

Got pummelled in the summer when the government changed the REITs legislation. Have to convert to a trust, which means tax rates go up and distributions had to go lower. Cut this from $.50 to $.40, which was better than the market expected. Suffering a little from tax loss selling.

2011-11-30

PAST TOP PICK

11.700

(A Top Pick Sept 22/11. Up 26.25%.) Still cheap but wouldn’t Buy at this price.

2011-11-30

PAST TOP PICK

Shoppers Drug Mart Corp

SC-T

42.450

(A Top Pick Sept 22/11. Up 3.11%.)

2011-11-30

SPECULATIVE BUY

Sunlife Financial

SLF-T

18.460

Lifecos have to go to the bond market to fund their liabilities and they still have a lot of equity exposure. Doesn't have a clear operational strategy as its competitors. Probably getting pummelled down on tax loss selling so would be worth a trade. Great dividend, which may very well get cut.

2011-11-30

BUY

TransForce Inc.

TFI-T

13.290

In a really good space. Their packaging and courier business has been doing real well. Have also been tethered to the energy sector with their special services segment. Yield and balance sheet are pretty safe. Acquiring a rig business, which will complement their existing operations. You could buy now or one weakness.

2011-11-30

TOP PICK

Trans Canada Corp

TRP-T

42.880

Feels that Keystone and Excel will eventually get built after the 2012 election, which is not built into the stock price. Good yield and good balance sheet. Trades at about 16X forward earnings while the group trades at about 20X.

2011-11-30

PAST TOP PICK

Intact Financial

IFC-T

56.900

(A Top Pick Sept 22/11. Up 3.43%.)

2011-11-30

BUY

Allied Properties REIT

AP.UN-T

23.930

All of the REITs have been a good place to be. Have benefited from cost of capital coming down and locking in at very low interest rates and leases have been very strong. Have about 26% of their lease portfolio coming due by 2013 at 8% below market prices. Trading little bit pricier than competition but their growth is worth it.

2011-11-30

BUY on WEAKNESS

Wajax Corp

WJX-T

37.760

Tethered to the strength in the Canadian industrial sector in mining and energy. 6.4% dividend. Good balance sheet.

2011-11-30

BUY

Canexus Corp

CUS-T

6.420

Just reiterated very strong guidance that the sodium chlorate market is going to be very strong into 2013. This is due to restrictive covenants that were put on in the 2008 downturn so capacity utilization is going to be very tight. Earnings were better than expected by about 10%. 6% distribution is safe. Payout ratio of about 70% in 2012. Growing well in Brazil.

2011-11-30

WEAK BUY

Vicwest Inc

VIC-T

8.120

Yielding 7.5% and dividend is safe with payout ratio at about 78%. They're in a tough spot having to deal with margin compression because of higher steel prices. Not for the faint of heart.

2011-11-30

WAIT

Bombardier Inc (B)

BBD.B-T

3.990

Another one that is in the eye of the storm. Most recent announcement was a negative one. Thinks their margins are going to be reduced and reduced their target. Believes their rail business alone is worth $3.50 so they do like it down here. Wait and see where markets wind up.

2011-09-22

BUY

Bank of Nova Scotia

BNS-T

50.000

He works for them so leaves them to other analysts. There is a trend for banks to boost dividends.

2011-09-22

BUY

InnVest Reit

INN.UN-T

4.220

Likes it for the risk-tolerant investor. Uses Stapled REIT model. It is a way of getting tax benefits of a REIT without being one. They will likely have to convert to a corp. and yield will come down. Believes that if you get GDP growth of 3% you can own this name.

2011-09-22

HOLD

Manulife Financial

MFC-T

11.490

Market is really concerned that they will have to do another capital raise. He believes even if interest rates and capital markets go down, they will not have to do this. Asian market is growing. US operations are growing. A lot of the bad news is already in the stock. Dividend is safe.

2011-09-22

TOP PICK

11.700

[Program signal failed in Sept. Also the web site did not record a clip for top picks. No opinions were recorded for Top Picks. This item was inserted on Nov 30/11.]

2011-09-22

BUY

Russel Metals

RUS-T

20.800

Dividend very safe, well run company. They had second year or year growth for second quarter. Steel demand is moderating here as is steel pricing. Management has a great ability to grow the company and make acquisitions. This is a name you could try to buy down here. A bit of a higher risk company.

2011-09-22

BUY on WEAKNESS

Royal Bank

RY-T

45.360

Terrific name for the longer term. They are one of the more levered names to wholesale business. Net interest margins for banks continue to come down, which is a headwind. One wonders if their growth might start to slow if Canadian balance sheets start to get stretched and we get to the top of our real estate curve.

2011-09-22

TOP PICK

Shoppers Drug Mart Corp

SC-T

42.450

[Program signal failed in Sept. Also the web site did not record a clip for top picks. No opinions were recorded for Top Picks. This item was inserted on Nov 30/11.]

2011-09-22

STRONG BUY

Vermilion Energy Inc

VET-T

42.000

Weakness is about oil and gas stocks coming down. 46% of revenues are tied to Brent. West Texas is trading at a discount to Brent by about $25. They believe that over the next 4 years they can grow to 50,000 barrels. 5.6% yield.

2011-09-22

N/A