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| Gordon Reid of GoodReid Investment Counsel |
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| BUY | Apple | AAPL-Q | 422.550 | Recently touched an all time high. You want to own it. Don’t get too cute about where you buy it. Inexpensive valuation in that earnings have grown so quickly that it just keeps getting more attractive. No debt and $100 a share in cash by the end of 2012. Probably his favourite pick of all. iTV will take this stock to might higher levels and without it it still has a long way to run. | 2012-01-11 | ||
| SELL | Bank of America | BAC-N | 6.870 | Sold into tax year-end and bought again. Fundamentals have not changed that much. Sold it a few months ago around this level. Sold because there are so many forces working against it. | 2012-01-11 | ||
| BUY | Caterpillar | CAT-N | 99.640 | Companies operating around the world will have some headwinds. Slowdown in Europe is definitely a headwind. But there are benefits to being a global player and they are taking advantage of that. | 2012-01-11 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Cisco | CSCO-Q | 19.070 | Owned in the past. Sold on a series of disappointing reports. Then they beat much lower expectations and the stock bounced. Doesn’t think this was warranted. Wait for them to get back to their previous growth rate. | 2012-01-11 | ||
| BUY | Deere & Co. | DE-N | 84.500 | Likes it. Will do well over the next while. At a sweet spot. Farmers are making money and they like to invest in new equipment. Very positive on it. This is a real recovery in the stock and in the market. | 2012-01-11 | ||
| HOLD | General Electric | GE-N | 18.880 | It is moving along with the market. Slowly getting their act together over the last 10 years. They have been quietly restructuring. He would probably look elsewhere but this is one to consider – see his top picks – UTX or Honeywell. | 2012-01-11 | ||
| WAIT | Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. | GT-N | 13.780 | Said that things were tough in certain parts of the world. So did Ford. Trading at low multiple. Will be a success story longer term but it is going to be volatile. | 2012-01-11 | ||
| TOP PICK | Halliburton Co | HAL-N | 35.380 | Is in the drilling boom because of shale technology. Do a lot of cementing and completion work. Are overridden with work because of boom in drilling. Lots of land leases have a use-it-or-lose it policy. Bit of an overhang from the gulf problem but feels that will resolve. | 2012-01-11 | ||
| WAIT | Intel | INTC-Q | 25.800 | Margins at all time highs and it worries him a bit. What can they do next. Intel has the corner on PC market but they are an entrant into the tablet market and he would rather see that happen before buying. | 2012-01-11 | ||
| BUY | Kraft Foods Inc | KFT-N | 37.930 | They are splitting into two parts. Normally done to try to open up the opportunities to a lagging group. Would be careful in terms of the split in terms of a tax standpoint. Sometimes Canadians don’t get the tax benefits and it can be hurtful. Perhaps exit before the split is done. | 2012-01-11 | ||
| DON'T BUY | McDonalds | MCD-N | 99.930 | Hit all time high recently. You can’t complain about the company or the stock. One of the worries is that it trades at a hefty multiple at the top end of their range. They will be a little bit challenged internationally by a strong US dollar. Believes they are fully priced. | 2012-01-11 | ||
| WAIT | 3M Co. | MMM-N | 83.770 | Another industrial choice. Last quarter they warned of global weakness. Thinks they are having some execution issues and would wait a quarter. | 2012-01-11 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Altria Group Inc | MO-N | 28.840 | Successful story through 2010 and 2011. The old Philip Morris. Fine dividend. But less growth that Phillip Morris International and so he would prefer that. | 2012-01-11 | ||
| WAIT | Oracle | ORCL-Q | 26.890 | Disappointing earnings in their last release. Blamed on timing of finishing some software contracts. Waiting for the next quarterly report. | 2012-01-11 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | PepsiCo | PEP-N | 65.010 | (Top Pick Dec 15/10, Up 2.36%) Continues to like it although here was a fungicide story today that is not approved in the US. This one has the snack food business. 2 or 3 multiple points less than coke. | 2012-01-11 | ||
| SELL | Research In Motion | RIM-T | 15.920 | Could be a turn around story but he describes it as a barbell. Wait of technology on one end that was not well marketed and on the other side is the potential for them to come out with a new technology that is really good and well received. Sold it in late November. | 2012-01-11 | ||
| TOP PICK | United Technologies | UTX-N | 76.700 | Bought Goodrich. Fits perfectly with their aerospace business. Steady growth, good dividend, trading reasonably. Lots of reasons to own the stock. | 2012-01-11 | ||
| BUY | Verizon Communications | VZ-N | 38.900 | At this point in time VZ looks a little better than AT&T, who just came off a bad investment of $4 Billion. Mentioned that the dividend does not get Canadians the dividend tax credit like Canadian telcos, which are good opportunities also. | 2012-01-11 | ||
| SELL | Archer Daniels Midland Company | ADM-N | 28.930 | So many moving parts to it that it is tough to figure out. Announced a layoff today. Never great news. | 2012-01-11 | ||
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| WAIT | Transocean Inc. | RIG-N | 41.040 | A frustrating experience for everyone. One thing after another. There is a disconnect between commodities and underlying stocks and it is frustrating for holders of oil services stocks. It is about confidence. Thinks it is bottoming. | 2012-01-11 | ||
| N/A | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Markets: Lot of the 2011 problems are continuing. Still suffering from the hangover of the crisis of 2007/8. For 3’rd year in a row we saw earnings growing at a stronger rate than the market. The dogs of last year sold in December and rising in January and this is normal for this time of year. We are seeing decoupling from the European problems. | 2012-01-11 | ||
| Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Natural Gas: Going down because of new technology of shale fracking. Dislocated its normal relationship with oil. This could cause oil prices to drop. Fracking is allowing for an abundance of supply. Could lead to North America being independent of Middle east for energy. | 2012-01-11 | ||
| WEAK BUY | Visa Inc. | V-N | 99.110 | As long as they execute on a fundamental basis you hold on to it. If the price runs away on it, you sell, but this has not happened. There are issues about Europe. | 2012-01-11 | ||
| SELL | Research In Motion Ltd. (US) | RIMM-Q | 15.610 | Could be a turn around story but he describes it as a barbell. Wait of technology on one end that was not well marketed and on the other side is the potential for them to come out with a new technology that is really good and well received. Sold it in late November. | 2012-01-11 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Intuitive Surgical Inc. | ISRG-Q | 456.950 | Surgical tool for surgeons to use like a robot. He is worried about it getting well ahead of itself. If anything goes wrong there is a lot of air under that stock price. | 2012-01-11 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Hanger Orthopedic Group | HGR-N | 18.750 | (Top Pick Dec 15/10, Down 12.13%) Their margins were weak in the third quarter. Medicaid was not covering in certain states. 11 times earnings now and seemingly back on track. Prospects look good going forward. | 2012-01-11 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Tempur Pedic International | TPX-N | 59.580 | (Top Pick Dec 15/10, Up 65.65%) Set themselves apart with their patented technology. Captured the high end market. Growing at a rapid rate. Earnings and stock price have both risen dramatically. | 2012-01-11 | ||
| TOP PICK | Wright Express | WXS-N | 55.610 | Do payment processing for large auto fleets. Have about $6,000,000 vehicles they service. They have control over exactly what is charged to the card. Just bought it. | 2012-01-11 | ||
| TOP PICK | Apple | AAPL-Q | 380.190 | Growing at about 30%-35% and trading at about 10X earnings. Expect they will have $35 as share in earnings in 2012. | 2011-12-14 | ||
| Comment | Bank of America | BAC-N | 5.230 | Sold his holdings a few months ago but is still a believer that over the long term, this bank has to do well if the US economy does well. Treasury is flattening the yield curve, making it difficult for the US banks to make money. There are a lot of risks in the banks but long-term they could do well. | 2011-12-14 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Cisco | CSCO-Q | 17.980 | The high-level view of this company is that it is large which creates its own problems. Fairly mature in its field, which can be a disadvantage because of competition. Management talked about a 17%-18% revenue growth which they continue to fail to meet. Also having trouble internally with governments deferring expenses. Would probably look elsewhere in tech. | 2011-12-14 | ||
| Comment | Ford Motor | F-N | 10.150 | 40%-45% sales come from outside of the US and Europe is a very big market for them. Stock has taken it on the chin. Have close to $100 billion in debt as well as $15-$20 billion of unfunded pension obligations but are producing a tremendous volume of cash and just introduced a dividend. Long-term, it could be a good bet. | 2011-12-14 | ||
| DON'T BUY | General Electric | GE-N | 16.610 | Owned for many years but recently exited the name. CEO took over just days after 9/11 and has had a very tough decade. 2008 was very tough on this company. Not getting the traction on the earnings side. Have made some headway but feels there are better industrials out there. | 2011-12-14 | ||
| TOP PICK | Oracle | ORCL-Q | 29.870 | Think of this as the middle of every business and making sure that all the moving parts are communicating in a very efficient way. Half of their revenue comes off licensing, which is stable and not cyclical. Have doubled their earnings since 2007. Have aggregated their businesses well. | 2011-12-14 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | PepsiCo | PEP-N | 63.980 | (A Top Pick Dec 15/10. Up 1.59%.) Great international exposure. Committed to a $2.5 billion investment in China. Recently bought a dairy concern in Russia. Likes that it is not a pure beverage company. About 30% of their business comes out of Frito-Lay. Fairly stable company. | 2011-12-14 | ||
| BUY | Verizon Communications | VZ-N | 38.260 | Great dividend. Would prefer this over AT&T (T-N) because of the growthier aspect. They don't have the wire line exposure of AT&T. Fairly safe name but you probably won't get a ton of growth out of it. | 2011-12-14 | ||
| BUY | Xerox | XRX-N | 7.790 | Keeps popping up on his screen. Have 2 things that he loves, accelerating growth and relatively good valuation. Trading in the high single digits in terms of earnings multiples and 13%-14% growth rate. Had some problems some years ago but management has turned that around. Aas become more of a high-tech name, competing against outside groups for office solutions. Pretty good name. | 2011-12-14 | ||
| TOP PICK | GOOG-Q | 618.070 | Getting a great deal of traction and growing at a very fast rate. Trades at about 13X earnings. The exciting thing is that they have changed the way we think about advertising with a big piece being mobility. Number of people looking at their ads and clicking through is increasing. | 2011-12-14 | |||
| Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Euro versus the US$. Should he Short and take some long positions in some US equities? Shorting the euro is becoming a popular trade. This makes him a little nervous. US is full of companies doing business globally so are faced with the European market, which could be a bit of a problem. However, the US is looking like a bit of a safe haven. | 2011-12-14 | ||
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| PAST TOP PICK | Hanger Orthopedic Group | HGR-N | 16.610 | (A Top Pick 15/10. Down 22.51%.) Expects over $1.60 in earnings this year and trades at 10X earnings. | 2011-12-14 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Tempur Pedic International | TPX-N | 50.410 | (A Top Pick 15/10. Up 43.29%.) Still doing very well. | 2011-12-14 | ||
| STRONG BUY | Apple | AAPL-Q | 366.990 | Fundamentally are doing wonderful things. Have no debt. 85 billion in cash. Will probably earn $35 a share. 10 multiple on a stock on a company that's growing their multiples 25-25% conservatively. Have very low share of the market in computer business so lots of upside. | 2011-11-23 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Cisco | CSCO-Q | 17.405 | Has become a show-me stock, but has yet to do it for him. | 2011-11-23 | ||
| TOP PICK | Deere & Co. | DE-N | 74.720 | Long term secular growth area. Yields are increasing, farmers are doing well, and spending money on products that Deere makes. | 2011-11-23 | ||
| TOP PICK | Dow Chemical | DOW-N | 24.600 | Play on the global expansion. 2/3rd of their revenue comes for exports. Well valued company which should do well as the world grows. | 2011-11-23 | ||
| HOLD | Ford Motor | F-N | 9.830 | Has been going down, but is market related. A good company, paying down debt, may introduce dividend. | 2011-11-23 | ||
| SELL | General Electric | GE-N | 14.730 | Was long time holder, recently sold. Has disappointed over and over. | 2011-11-23 | ||
| WEAK BUY | Coca-Cola Company | KO-N | 64.870 | Not a bad company or stock, but tends to favor pepsi over coke because of the diversity of pepsi's business. | 2011-11-23 | ||
| BUY | McDonalds | MCD-N | 91.870 | Trading at 18X earnings. Excellent management, growing internationally and domestically. But watch it, as it may get price exhaustion (prices exceeds actual value because of momentum). | 2011-11-23 | ||
| STRONG BUY | Oracle | ORCL-Q | 29.000 | Larry Ellison is a great aggregator of businesses. More of the business is earning from service revenue which is more predictable. | 2011-11-23 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | PepsiCo | PEP-N | 62.400 | Dec 15,2010 Recommended at $65.24 now $62.33 Down 2.25% Is more diversified then Coke, which gives it a nice combination of growth and stability. | 2011-11-23 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Pfizer Inc | PFE-N | 18.450 | Pharmaceutical space is tough. Lipitor is a drug that is going off-patent which will reduce their income. | 2011-11-23 | ||
| BUY | Verizon Communications | VZ-N | 35.350 | In US is competition between Verizon and AT&T. Both pay a good dividend AT&T is bit better. On the other hand Verizon has growth. | 2011-11-23 | ||
| WEAK BUY | Walgreen Co | WAG-N | 32.090 | Rumor today that "Express Scripts" and Walgreen have come to an agreement. In pharmacy space likes Walgreen over Express Scripts. | 2011-11-23 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Whirlpool Corp | WHR-N | 46.360 | Latest earnings report not good internationally. relies of tax credits from government for energy savings. | 2011-11-23 | ||
| BUY | Xerox | XRX-N | 7.550 | Likes it. Has gone through hard times, trading at 7X earnings, lower costs and increasing volumes. | 2011-11-23 | ||
| SELL | Archer Daniels Midland Company | ADM-N | 27.790 | Too many moving parts. Crop prices/failure, flowthrough issues. Tough industry. | 2011-11-23 | ||
| VAGUE | Express Scripts Inc | ESRX-Q | 42.490 | Rumor today that Express Scripts and Walgreen have come to an agreement. In pharmacy space likes Walgreen over Express Scripts. | 2011-11-23 | ||
| STRONG BUY | Transocean Inc. | RIG-N | 44.670 | Has been a "tough own". 139 Drilling vessels. They are well positioned for the type of drilling that will dominate over the next few years. | 2011-11-23 | ||
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| HOLD | DuPont | DD-N | 44.080 | Has become a high tech chemical company, 25% of business in agricultural business, rest in traditional chemicals. 60% of business in overseas. Trading at 11-12X earnings. Has decent dividend. | 2011-11-23 | ||
| WATCH | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Need to be disciplined, and purge emotion. Set asset allocation at a time that is as neutral emotionally as possible. Review on an ongoing basis. Stick to your asset mix, and within those asset classes take advantage of the companies that you think will do well over time, and don't let the macro issues effect your decisions. | 2011-11-23 | ||
| WATCH | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Question: how to buy US equities from a Canadian account? Avoid constant exchange, every transaction is a hit on the exchange. Setup a US account, transfer money in and out of US account less often to avoid the exchange hit. If you are doing it through an RSP (which can't be in a US account), then look into discount brokerages (TD, Scotia) matching the exhange rate if you are buying/selling on same day. Tax implications are capital gains tax, withholding tax on dividends. | 2011-11-23 | ||
| BUY | Philip Morris International | PM-N | 71.020 | Likes it. Stabilty of income stream and cash flow. Produces ton of cash. Yield is 4.3%. | 2011-11-23 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Hanger Orthopedic Group | HGR-N | 15.060 | Dec 15,2010 Recommended at $21.10 down 29.05% Industry is down. Still thinks has good prospects, trading at less then 10X for what is expected for 2011. | 2011-11-23 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Tempur Pedic International | TPX-N | 53.170 | Dec 15,2010 recommended at 35.78 now at $54.35 gain of 51.9% Makes mattresses, technology developed by Nasa. Have spent money on advertising which has paid off. | 2011-11-23 | ||
| TOP PICK | Parametric Technology | PMTC-Q | 19.010 | Have come out with a new product line. Company has 20% growth target of earnings. | 2011-11-23 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Apple | AAPL-Q | 405.770 | (Top Pick Oct 20/10, Up 30.47%) Valuation is still pretty reasonable. Earnings grew 52% year over year. | 2011-10-24 | ||
| SELL ON STRENGTH | Abbott Labs | ABT-N | 53.450 | Half of business in Pharma space and rest is in nutritional area. | 2011-10-24 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Advanced Micro Devices | AMD-N | 5.060 | Like Intel but is smaller and become concentrated, so he would avoid it. | 2011-10-24 | ||
| WEAK BUY | Bank of America | BAC-N | 6.720 | This is not a short-term hold. Housing, domestic and world economy are a problem. Interest margins are being brought down. There are some headwinds, but long-term, the banks are trading at cheap values. | 2011-10-24 | ||
| BUY | Boeing | BA-N | 64.750 | Great long-term value. Finally made first delivery of latest model. Airlines have to keep their fleets current as most recent models are more field efficient. | 2011-10-24 | ||
| WEAK BUY | CitiGroup | C-N | 31.600 | Not looking to credit markets to raise money. There is some promise, but keep it in measure. | 2011-10-24 | ||
| SELL | Cisco | CSCO-Q | 17.540 | Set top business is quite weak and they are quite large so are running into headwinds. | 2011-10-24 | ||
| BUY | Deere & Co. | DE-N | 74.550 | Only about 10 or 11 times next year’s earnings, great play on agriculture. As population grows and food needs increase, farmers are pressed to create more food. | 2011-10-24 | ||
| BUY | Ford Motor | F-N | 12.510 | Have done a good job. Deserve credit for not taking gov’t assistance. Getting their financial house in order. As we see car sales go up over the next couple of years, they will do well. | 2011-10-24 | ||
| DON'T BUY | General Electric | GE-N | 16.450 | Had trouble with finance part of business. Have slowly been bringing themselves out of it. It is a show-me stock. They are starting to do that. Thinks they may be starting to gain traction. | 2011-10-24 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Goldman Sachs | GS-N | 103.980 | (Top Pick Oct 20/10, Down 34.59%) With problems in Europe, they are staying very cautious. They are not likely to in this kind of environment. | 2011-10-24 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Intel | INTC-Q | 24.590 | Are supplying PC market. It is a declining market compared to tablets. The PC is going the way. Would avoid it until they are supplying tablets. | 2011-10-24 | ||
| BUY | Johnson & Johnson | JNJ-N | 64.730 | Good holding, defensive, blend in with growth stocks in a portfolio. Has been held back a little because of issues such as recalls on the consumer side. | 2011-10-24 | ||
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| BUY | 3M Co. | MMM-N | 82.180 | Assumption of marketplace is too negative and he thinks it is too negative. Expects good revenue growth. | 2011-10-24 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Altria Group Inc | MO-N | 27.310 | Domestic half of business. He prefers international (PM) side of the operation. NA smoking habits are on the decline. They are trying to hook young Chinese. He doesn’t invest in these because of the moral decision. | 2011-10-24 | ||
| BUY | PepsiCo | PEP-N | 62.100 | Prefers over coke. Snack business too. | 2011-10-24 | ||
| SELL | Pfizer Inc | PFE-N | 19.360 | The whole pharma business is challenged. PFE is predicting lower revenues next year. Management is talking about breaking up the company. With Lipitor patent expiring, he would just sell it. | 2011-10-24 | ||
| DON'T BUY | A T & T US | T-N | 28.880 | Doesn’t have the benefit of dividend tax credit, doesn’t recommend it. | 2011-10-24 | ||
| TOP PICK | Walgreen Co | WAG-N | 34.310 | If they don’t deal with the express scripts it will hurt them about 7%. In a battle over pricing. Things it will be settled. | 2011-10-24 | ||
| BUY | Xerox | XRX-N | 8.000 | Reinventing themselves. Very inexpensive. Growing earnings of 10-15% per year. | 2011-10-24 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Transocean Inc. | RIG-N | 55.820 | (Top Pick Oct 20/10, Down 38%) Over intermediate and longer term we are going to have a greater and greater need for oil. One of the largest companies in the area. | 2011-10-24 | ||
| N/A | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Market: There was such an extreme level of pessimism it was hard to find anyone who had anything good to say back in September. Thinks we are off the bottom a little bit. It feels like a recession, but we priced in a very negative outlook. Sees this rally having legs. Best thing about CAT results was the positive view for 23012. It is a proxy for the global situation. He is doing some buying. He doesn’t need dividends, but he looks at ROE. | 2011-10-24 | ||
| TOP PICK | Visa Inc. | V-N | 94.210 | Switched into this from MasterCard because of better growth profile and because amendment was introduced to limit fee on debit cards. | 2011-10-24 | ||
| BUY | Alpha Natural Resources | ANR-N | 23.790 | Just acquired a coal producer. He thinks it is a good time to take a long-term view of coal. There is a thesis that will support good companies like this one. There are a lot of reasons to own coal. | 2011-10-24 | ||
| TOP PICK | InterDigital | IDCC-Q | 49.310 | Good chance to be taken over. Has valuable properties that relate to 3-4G technology. | 2011-10-24 | ||
| TOP PICK | Apple | AAPL-Q | 384.830 | With Steve Jobs stepping down, there is a greater possibility they will utilize their cash. Operations are in great hands. One never knows why or whether the innovation will continue. We are all guessing. You have to watch this and every other company to see if the innovation continues. They have done a wonderful job and are trading at a very reasonable multiple. | 2011-08-31 | ||
| BUY | Abbott Labs | ABT-N | 21.270 | Have grown earnings every single year since 1991. Only 10 or 11x earnings. Likes them in the health care space because they are diversified. Market is worried about their largest drug, whose patent expires in a few years. He doesn’t see it as a problem. | 2011-08-31 | ||
| BUY | Bank of America | BAC-N | 8.170 | Views it as an investment rather than a trade. Cheap valuation. $12.50 book vs. $8 price. They learned from 2008. Say they are well capitalized. Gave market confidence that they would act with Warren Buffet and selling a Chinese asset, when they didn’t really need the cash. He likes it based on the reputational support Mr. Buffet gave the bank. | 2011-08-31 | ||
| TOP PICK | Boeing | BA-N | 66.860 | Trading not far off what it was a year ago. New model plane is available for delivery. Have significant orders. 12x earnings, good dividend and 15% earnings growth ahead of them as far as they can see. | 2011-08-31 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Boeing | BA-N | 66.860 | (Top Pick Sep 14/10, Up 9.28%) Was not selling. It was inevitable that the new model was going to happen. Different companies do the heavy lifting at different times. | 2011-08-31 | ||
| BUY | Caterpillar | CAT-N | 91.000 | As your investment appreciates you have to make sure it does not overweight everything else. A great company. One of the nice things is that 2/3rds if revenue comes from outside of US. Benefit from emerging markets and China boom. They say they will grow earnings 15% this cycle. | 2011-08-31 | ||
| BUY | General Electric | GE-N | 16.310 | Long-term holding. GE Capital is a much smaller part of the company right now. Valuations good and they pay a good, solid dividend. | 2011-08-31 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Halliburton Co | HAL-N | 44.370 | (Top Pick Sep 14/10, Up 43.93) Great company in the oil services business. | 2011-08-31 | ||
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| SELL | Hewlett-Packard Co | HPQ-N | 26.030 | Have changed direction dramatically. Recent acquisition will be dilutive. | 2011-08-31 |