| TOP PICK | | BCE Inc. | BCE-T | 37.110 | (A Top Pick Sept 12/07. Down 7%.) Still believes the deal is going to go through. You are looking at getting $42.75 by the end of June. | 2008-04-17 | |
| TOP PICK | | Seaspan Corp. | SSW-N | 27.140 | Container ships that are put out on long-term 8 to 10 year leases with crew. Even if there is no container, they still get paid. Their customers pay for the oil. | 2008-04-17 | |
| TOP PICK | | Gildan Activewear Inc. | GIL-T | 35.090 | Manufactures T-shirts and golf shirts, etc. Has been taking market share from its peers. As they drop their cost of production, they drop their prices. | 2008-04-17 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | CM-T | 68.560 | (A Top Pick Sept 12/07. Down 27%.) Currently trading at 8X next year's earnings but could see it trading at 10X over the next year, which would be a 25% increase. Still buying. | 2008-04-17 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Genesis Lease Ltd. | GLS-N | 14.210 | (A Top Pick Sept 12/07. Down 43%.) Commercial jet leasing to the major airlines. Recommended this before all the credit markets collapsed. Earnings have not been impacted. Orders are still going to be taken for the rest of the year. 14% yield. Still likes. | 2008-04-17 | |
| BUY | | Husky Energy | HSE-T | 43.910 | Have done a lot of things strategically well. They had heavy oil and found refineries to take it and also did joint ventures. It is cheap, but refinery margins are a little bit tight right now, which may be the perception that is keeping the stock price down. | 2008-04-17 | |
| Comment | | Telus Corp | T-T | 45.700 | People do not believe the valuation on the Telcos and that is one reason why the stock is low. There are also new entrants coming in on the cellular side. | 2008-04-17 | |
| BUY | | Rogers Communcations (B) | RCI.B-T | 41.020 | They were taking more than 50% share for a while but raised their prices and everyone went back to taking their normal share. They are still very profitable. Market is being overly punitive on the stock. | 2008-04-17 | |
| Comment | | Cameco Corporation | CCO-T | 38.510 | One factor weighing on the stock is the big drop in the price of uranium. Also had some flooding problems with one of their mines. You have to believe in uranium prices to buy this at the current level, otherwise it will be flat. | 2008-04-17 | |
| BUY | | Yamana Gold Inc. | YRI-T | 14.700 | Thinks gold at these levels is sustainable. With most of their operations in Brazil, there could be currency risks. | 2008-04-17 | |
| Comment | | Sherrit | S-T | 14.970 | People hoped that this would split up the mining assets from the oil/gas assets. The issue with this is that each company would be small and where would you put the debt. Looking at commodities, it could continue to do well. | 2008-04-17 | |
| HOLD | | Brookfield Asset Management (A) | BAM.A-T | 28.080 | Currently trading close to its NAV. A lot of the driver of the valuation is Brookfield Properties (BPO-T) so you have to have a positive view towards real estate. Fairly valued. | 2008-04-17 | |
| BUY | | Rothmans Inc | ROC-T | 25.450 | The best thing with this is that you get the chance of special dividends. It's a cash flow machine and you get a nice fat yield now with a chance of a special dividend every 2 or 3 years. | 2008-04-17 | |
| SELL | | Viterra Inc | VT-T | 14.600 | It makes its money off the volumes that go through its grain silos. Thinks it is a bit ahead of itself. | 2008-04-17 | |
| Comment | | Laurentian Bank | LB-T | 42.390 | Has had a very nice move. He still likes the banks and this one has less risk than many of the others. 3% dividend. | 2008-04-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Harry Winston Diamond Corp. | HW-T | 27.470 | With this, you have the mining risks and the risk of the US consumer pulling back on expense of items such as diamonds. | 2008-04-17 | |
| Comment | | Potash Corp of Saskatchewan | POT-T | 196.880 | Trading at 20X earnings. Has a great operation, but people are buying it on the basis that potash prices are going to keep rising. They just put out 1 million tons to China at a fixed price for a year so you are looking at a year before there is any significant price increase. | 2008-04-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Tim Hortons | THI-T | 34.300 | Growth rate is going to slow as there are only so many locations. A fantastic operation. Very profitable. Just increased coffee prices. Their bottom line will remain extremely solid but you are paying full price. A $35 stock price would be generous. | 2008-04-17 | |
| BUY | | Encana Corp | ECA-T | 84.750 | Trading around 6X cash flow and should be trading higher. It is the most levered to gas. Had flat production in 06 versus 07 but there is up production going into 08. | 2008-04-17 | |
| BUY | | TSX Group | X-T | 38.380 | Stock price has dropped because of the malaise in the market. They get their fees from the number of companies that list, IPOs and when companies issue new equities as well as a cut on every trade that goes through. Quite attractive at this level. | 2008-04-17 | |
| Comment | | Petro-Can | PCA-T | 51.580 | Refining margins are down, so even though they are getting $100 for oil, if you have to sell it for $1.15 at the gas station, it is less profitable. | 2008-04-17 | |
| Comment | | Manulife Financial | MFC-T | 38.060 | US insurers are trading at around 8X – 9X earnings and this one is trading at around 11X. Does not have subprime issues or exposure to the mono lines so it is solid, but in the environment, the market is shying from this. He prefers Sun Life (SLF-T), which is trading around 9X earnings. | 2008-04-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Power Corp | POW-T | 34.350 | The main driver here is Power Financial (PWF-T) and its driver is Great West Life (GWO-T). So you really have to look at Great West to move Power Financial to move this stock. As a holding company, it tends to trade at a discount to NAV. Not representing a special buying opportunity at this time. | 2008-04-17 | |
| BUY | | CAE Inc | CAE-T | 11.720 | Would not buy this one for a takeover possibility. Reasonably priced at around 12X forward earnings. Good value. | 2008-04-17 | |
| BUY | | Royal Bank | RY-T | 47.350 | The banks are cheap. If you believe the earnings estimates that are out there, there is a lot of good upside in them. | 2008-04-17 | |
| BUY | | Kinross Gold | K-T | 25.140 | (Market Call Minute.) Has great growth with production of 1.6 million going up to 2.7. | 2008-04-17 | |
| HOLD | | Fording Canadian Coal Trust (Inc Trust) | FDG.UN-T | 63.190 | (Market Call Minute.) Commodity price is up, but that is reflected in the stock price valuation. | 2008-04-17 | |
| HOLD | | First Calgary Petroleums | FCP-T | 2.840 | (Market Call Minute.) There has been a change in management so you have to see how things play out. | 2008-04-17 | |
| BUY | | Trans Canada Corp | TRP-T | 36.750 | (Market Call Minute.) Just ought a new asset in the US. They need $1 billion in equity so the stock sold off on that. 8% opportunity. | 2008-04-17 | |
| BUY | | Talisman Energy | TLM-T | 20.860 | (Market Call Minute.) Cheap statistically. | 2008-04-17 | |
| BUY | | Thomson Reuters Corp | TRI-T | 36.150 | A very compelling story. There will be throwing off $2 billion a year in free cash flow. The merger savings they are expected to realize is about $650 million, but expect to lose $150 million revenue. | 2008-04-17 | |
| HOLD | | Agrium | AGU-T | 87.200 | The whole issue here is the growth in earnings. Also produce nitrogen fertilizer. More of this goes into corn. Also have the Alberta advantage of getting cheap gas. 13X next year’s earnings. | 2008-04-17 | |
| TOP PICK | | BCE Inc. | BCE-T | 36.290 | (A Top Pick Sept 12/07. Down 10.7%.) Still likes it. The Teachers Pension announced they are still committed. Takeout price is $42.75 and you will get 1 more dividend. Still a Buy. | 2008-01-25 | |
| TOP PICK | | Gildan Activewear Inc. | GIL-T | 35.550 | Make accretive acquisitions. A growth company. Trades at 17X earnings and earnings are growing at 20% to 30% per annum. Can't see why it shouldn't trade at 20X earnings or higher. | 2008-01-25 | |
| TOP PICK | | Nufarm | NUF-ASX | 0.000 | (Trades on the Australian exchange.) Make products that protect crops from diseases. Sell to over 100 different countries. Trades at around 12/13X earnings. | 2008-01-25 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | CM-T | 67.240 | (A Top Pick Sept 12/07. Down 27.4%.) Management made some terrible decisions and they have made a lot of changes in management. Now a “show me” stock. Still potential for another shoe to drop. | 2008-01-25 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Genesis Lease Ltd. | GLS-N | 17.680 | (A Top Pick Sept 12/07. Down 19.7%.) They lease airplanes and have long-term contracts. Liked their stable cash flows. Earnings are good and the dividend is good. Market is nervous about any company that has the name Lease or Finance in it. General Electric (GE-N) is one of their partners. An attractive Buy. | 2008-01-25 | |
| Comment | | Quebecor World Inc. | IQW-T | 0.415 | Filed for CCAA, in other words they are bankrupt. Debt holders will end up taking over this company and the equity will be worth nothing. | 2008-01-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | | CI Financial Income Fund | CIX.UN-T | 23.480 | Just cut their distribution. It is trading at a premium multiple to the corporations such as the AGF (AGF.B-T). He would prefer AGF. | 2008-01-25 | |
| HOLD | | Brookfield Asset Management (A) | BAM.A-T | 30.790 | They have a great model. They buy assets, lever them up and then find pension funds to partner in with them. They are then able to take an asset with an 8% return and turn it into 15% ROE for their shareholders. At the moment investors don't have a great deal of confidence in a company like this. You have to accept volatility when you buy this. | 2008-01-25 | |
| Comment | | Agrium | AGU-T | 60.800 | Tied into fertilizer and everyone is loving corn. You need the nitrogen that they make. It's in the right space and the right time. Half their production comes from Alberta, which has cheaper gas. Trading around 14X earnings. If you believe in the ethanol story, this is in the right space. | 2008-01-25 | |
| Comment | | Nova Chemicals Corp. | NCX-T | 26.520 | They use natural gas to make ethylene for producing plastics. They have sold off because all of their products are economically sensitive. Trading at 8X earnings, which is low. If you believe there is going to be a recession, you do not want to own a deep cyclical company such as this. | 2008-01-25 | |
| BUY | | Toronto Dominion | TD-T | 66.280 | This has been one of the better banks to get through all these problems. It didn't have the asset-backed commercial paper. However, 10% of their assets are from TD Bank North and another 10% from TD Ameritrade in the US. Solid balance sheet and trading around 10X earnings. | 2008-01-25 | |
| BUY | | Sunlife Financial | SLF-T | 48.200 | People have a hate on for financials. Canadian insurance companies are now more expensive on a PE multiple than the US ones. However, there are not the same risks. At 10X earnings he would be very comfortable owning this one. | 2008-01-25 | |
| BUY | | Manulife Financial | MFC-T | 37.010 | People have a hate on for financials. Canadian insurance companies are now more expensive on a PE multiple than the US ones. However, there are not the same risks. At 10X earnings he would be very comfortable owning this one. This is the dominant player in Canada. Good international growth. | 2008-01-25 | |
| BUY | | Telus Corp | T-T | 43.960 | Sold off because 1) the market sold off and 2) the government is going to sell Spectrum, which would give them competition. Not sure where the competition is going to get all the financing to build the communication towers, etc. Has great cash flow and trades for less than 5X cash flow. Typically they trade at 5.5 or 6X cash flow. Should see at least a 10% upside from these levels. | 2008-01-25 | |
| BUY | | Potash Corp of Saskatchewan | POT-T | 133.980 | Trades around 19X earnings. It is the dominant player. Currently negotiating the prices with the Chinese. They have 75% of the excess capacity in the industry, worldwide. Solid company. Long life reserves. | 2008-01-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Ford Motor | F-N | 6.580 | You might as well go play the slots. One minute auto sales are up and then they are down. If they don't get the right model one year, sales could drop. They still have problems to work out. | 2008-01-25 | |
| Comment | | Encana Corp | ECA-T | 63.720 | 80% natural gas, so it's a matter of where natural gas prices go. Very strong management. Fully priced, but if you believe in natural gas, you can believe in this one. | 2008-01-25 | |
| Comment | | Teck Cominco Ltd. (B) | TCK.B-T | 32.660 | Have a good mix of commodities. They own 19% of Fording Coal (FDG.UN-T), which is up because of coal prices. Heavy into zinc, whose prices seem to be weakening. You could see near-term price weakness, but it is a solid company. | 2008-01-25 | |
| BUY | | Petro-Can | PCA-T | 46.310 | Integrated oil/gas company. Has refineries, gas stations and explores for oil. This is a lot more stable and safe than others, which go up and down strictly on the price of oil. | 2008-01-25 | |
| Comment | | Canadian Tire Corporation Ltd. (A) | CTC.A-T | 62.700 | Stock has pulled back because the market believes the consumer is tapped out. However, that is a US consumer. Wal-Mart is expanding into their areas. Trades at less than 10X earnings. Also have gas stations and a credit card business. Well diversified. However, their big growth is gone. | 2008-01-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Loblaws | L-T | 33.040 | Didn't get their inventory right and the grocery segment is getting a lot more competitive. Would still be concerned. You pay 14X earnings, which is expensive. | 2008-01-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Nortel | NT-T | 12.990 | This is being a story of hope for many years, but he just can't buy into that hope. You have to believe that sales are going up and that they are going to get higher margins. | 2008-01-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Forestry: This has not reached its lows. There are still too many houses being built in the US, given demand. Also, pulp prices have not been that strong. | 2008-01-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Cameco Corporation | CCO-T | 34.850 | Had troubles with flooding in their Cigar Lake mine. They have been able to stem that and got fixed a little earlier than expected. Uranium prices have dropped. To spur this one, you would really have to see uranium prices spike up, which doesn't look like it is going to happen in the near term. | 2008-01-25 | |
| TOP PICK | | BCE Inc. | BCE-T | 40.550 | (A Top Pick Oct 12/06. Up 27.5%.) If you buy now, you will end up with $42.75 plus you get 2 dividends. | 2007-09-12 | |
| TOP PICK | | Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | CM-T | 95.830 | Admitted they had subprime exposure, took a hit and then pre-announced they were going to beat the street consensus for earnings by $.30 on one quarter. Now the cheapest bank and has great earnings growth. | 2007-09-12 | |
| TOP PICK | | Genesis Lease Ltd. | GLS-N | 22.920 | Commercial jet leasing. Has about 9% yield. Have financing in place so will not have to come to the equity or debt market for at least another 12-18 months. Major airlines are continuing to order new aircraft. Good price. GE is a partner with them. | 2007-09-12 | |
| Comment | | Sherrit | S-T | 15.690 | Have oil and nickel assets. Opening a new nickel mine in Madagascar. Will triple their nickel production by 2012. Trades at a discount because of its Cuban assets. You might be better off buying some pure plays in nickel. | 2007-09-12 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Canadian Pacific Rail | CP-T | 71.250 | (A Top Pick Oct 12/06. Up 23.1%.) Still a Buy. Economically sensitive. Recently made an acquisition of a US rail. Good growth engine. Their exposure to coal bodes well for them. | 2007-09-12 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Saputo Inc. | SAP-T | 49.950 | (A Top Pick Oct 12/06. Up 33.4%.) Made astute acquisitions. The cheese to milk spread is improving in the US meaning further earnings growth. | 2007-09-12 | |
| BUY | | Bank of Nova Scotia | BNS-T | 52.050 | One of the best and most stable performers in banking. Their wealth management arm definitely contributed. Domestic operations were strong. Acquired a bank in Chile, which will add five cents to earnings. Expects further earnings growth. | 2007-09-12 | |
| Comment | | Royal Bank | RY-T | 53.070 | Used to be the leader and traded at a premium. Have struggled a bit with their US operations. | 2007-09-12 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Biovail Corp. | BVF-T | 17.850 | Got rid of their US sales force. Their key drug Welbutrin is running off protection and will have more competition in 2008. Reasonably cheap. FDA delayed one drug. There will be volatility. | 2007-09-12 | |
| BUY | | Agrium | AGU-T | 52.620 | An attractive stock. Gas prices are still reasonably low for the feedstock for making nitrogen fertilizer Wheat is getting all-time highs. Farmers have more money for more fertilizer. | 2007-09-12 | |
| Comment | | Research In Motion | RIM-T | 88.500 | They’ve a hot product. Trades at 50X earnings, which is too expensive for him. Earnings are still growing dramatically so this could quickly dropped to 20X’s. You have to watch what you are paying for these stocks. One of the better technology stocks. | 2007-09-12 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Tim Hortons | THI-T | 34.410 | Doesn't feel the product offering is as good as it was. US growth is not as good as Canadian. You are paying up for the growth and not sure there is that much more in it. | 2007-09-12 | |
| BUY | | Telus Corp | T-T | 55.500 | Its growth engine has been the cellular phone side. There is now uncertainty as to whether the government will license out a 4th provider. Trading where it is because the talk of the leveraged buyout is now over. | 2007-09-12 | |
| HOLD | | CAE Inc | CAE-T | 13.200 | Aerospace and defence contractor. Make simulators that I used by the airlines. At 20X earnings, there are a lot of expectations built into this. Fairly valued. | 2007-09-12 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Bank of Montreal | BMO-T | 62.220 | Got into terrible gas trading deals with the hedge fund Amaranth and is still unwinding from this. Last quarter cost them $.19. Management increased dividend to indicate they have the cash flow. He feels it will take a little while to work out. Feels the | 2007-09-12 | |
| Comment | | Canadian National R.R. | CNR-T | 56.740 | Prefers Canadian Pacific (CP-T), which has the ability to improve its efficiencies. Nothing wrong with this company, he just can't own everything. | 2007-09-12 | |
| BUY | | Petro-Can | PCA-T | 55.970 | A great diversifier with refining assets, international assets. A slow and study company. Likes its stability. | 2007-09-12 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Precision Drilling | PD-T | 54.500 | Many companies are pulling back drilling expectations for next year. This could make it very difficult. | 2007-09-12 | |
| Comment | | Westjet Airlines | WJA-T | 16.990 | Had stellar numbers in August with their highest capacity numbers. It's at the top in Canada for their efficiencies. If you are concerned about recession, it will be the marginal player that does not hop on the plane, but right now very solid numbers. Pr | 2007-09-12 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Reitmans | RET-T | 19.990 | Had a great history of not missing earnings expectations. Always controlled inventory and were one of the best operators. Market was expecting earnings of $.55 and they came in with $.45. August sales were down 7%. | 2007-09-12 | |
| HOLD | | Brookfield Properties | BPO-T | 23.280 | Major buildings in New York with leases out to major financial institutions, which is one of the reasons for the weakness in the share price. Assets are pre-eminent and therefore should and could trade at a premium to a lot of other companies. Real esta | 2007-09-12 | |
| BUY | | Barrick Gold | ABX-T | 38.720 | Has been moving with the gold price. Management had most of its production hedged but these are unwinding. Feels it will continue moving up with the gold index. He can see gold hitting $750. | 2007-09-12 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Maple Leaf Foods | MFI-T | 16.020 | Restructuring. The money they are spending is to reposition themselves, but you are not going to see that until 2009. About one quarter of their sales are on bakery products and with wheat prices going up this might put pressure on them. | 2007-09-12 | |
| PARTIAL BUY | | Petrobank Energy and Resources | PBG-T | 34.090 | Have a technology that injects a fire under the ground to heat up the oil sands allowing them to pull the oil out of the bottom. If it works, it is an exceptional buy. Has worked on a trial basis, but not on a greater scale, soul would advise caution. | 2007-09-12 | |
| Comment | | Bombardier Inc (B) | BBD.B-T | 6.260 | Turboprops have been grounded for inspection of landing gear. This is on older equipment and the newer planes and not having these problems. These things do happen and this is just a bump in the road. | 2007-09-12 | |
| BUY | | Talisman Energy | TLM-T | 18.740 | Internationally diversified and cheaper than many of the others. Some of their North Sea production is starting to drop off, which is a concern. Could be a takeover. Trading at 4.88 to cash flow. Good price. | 2007-09-12 | |
| TOP PICK | | BCE Inc. | BCE-T | 27.980 | (A top Pick Oct 12/06. Down in 11.7%.) Looked like it was going to be a trust. Solid dividend yield supported by earnings. Selling off some of their pieces that have created a discount in the stock price. | 2006-11-28 | |
| TOP PICK | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Ace convertible debentures, 4.25%, due June 1 2035. The parent company for Air Canada, Aeroplan, Jazz. If you take out the public pieces, you essentially get Air Canada for free. | 2006-11-28 | |
| TOP PICK | | Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | CM-T | 90.400 | Solid dividend yield. A good story for 2007. Has greater exposure to capital markets than the other banks. | 2006-11-28 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Canadian Pacific Rail | CP-T | 62.990 | (A top Pick Oct 12/06. Up 8.9%.) Shipping of coal has slipped a little but all others are doing well. Continuing to cut costs. | 2006-11-28 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Saputo Inc. | SAP-T | 37.850 | (A top Pick Oct 12/06. Up 1.5%.) Reasonable valuation. Good balance sheet. 2% dividend. Still likes. | 2006-11-28 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Tim Hortons | THI-T | 34.500 | Grossly overvalued at around 34 X earnings. Same-store sales have been reasonable. Missed a little on the last quarter because of distribution problems. | 2006-11-28 | |
| BUY | | Yamana Gold Inc. | YRI-T | 13.610 | Great growth company. Could be producing 1 million oz. a year by 2008. Has a good outlook for gold, but it will be volatile. | 2006-11-28 | |
| BUY | | Manulife Financial | MFC-T | 37.600 | Has some good growth prospects. Have made some astute acquisitions. Good dividend and solid earnings. 2% dividend. | 2006-11-28 | |
| BUY | | Canadian Oil Sands Trust | COS.UN-T | 28.450 | The pre-eminent company investing in the oil sands. Have been increasing cash flow is in each of the last few years. Very solid company. Great long-term good value asset. | 2006-11-28 | |
| BUY | | Manitoba Telecom Services | MBT-T | 43.600 | Has drifted down because it can't convert to an income trust. Solid 6% dividend that is still supported by earnings. The Allstream tax losses are still protecting the earnings. | 2006-11-28 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Western Oil Sands Inc. | WTO-T | 29.590 | Management acquired some assets in a high-risk area in the Mideast. There is now some concern on the management. | 2006-11-28 | |
| BUY | | Emera Inc | EMA-T | 22.320 | A great stable company with a very solid dividend. Not one for an RRSP as you would lose the dividend tax credit. Yield of about 4%. | 2006-11-28 | |
| BUY | | Teck Cominco Ltd. (B) | TCK.B-T | 82.960 | Solid balance sheet. Astute management. Zinc is one of the tightest commodities out there. | 2006-11-28 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Tembec Inc. | TMB-T | 1.430 | Has been a perennial money loser. Continue to lose money even with the softwood lumber rebate. | 2006-11-28 | |
| BUY | | Uranium Participation Corp. | U-T | 11.980 | Uranium prices have doubled in a year. The market still remains tight. | 2006-11-28 | |
| Comment | | Husky Energy | HSE-T | 75.780 | Has been a great little company. Refine some of the oil they make and, every year, at year-end they pay a special dividend out of any excess cash flow. Pretty fairly valued at 7 X cash flow. | 2006-11-28 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Bombardier Inc (Pref-B) | BBD.PR.B-T | 18.450 | A higher risk company. Have a lot of costs developing the new planes. Prefers are paying a higher yield, but it is for a reason. Would be very cautious. Better off with some of the bank preferreds. | 2006-11-28 | |
| Comment | | Suncor Energy Inc | SU-T | 87.640 | Very long life reserves. If you feel the long-term price of oil will be $30, you wouldn't want to own this at the present costs. However, if you feel the oil price will be $60, this would be good to own. | 2006-11-28 | |
