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| Glenn Paradis, BA, CFA of Aegon Capital Management Inc. |
|---|
| 5000 Yonge Street |
| Toronto ON |
| M2N 7J8 |
| 416-883-5800 |
| Glenn Paradis, BA, CFA's website |
| Fax: 416-883-5790 |
| info@aegoncapital.ca |
| DON'T BUY | Bank of Montreal | BMO-T | 56.370 | In the long run, you need exposure in Canadian banks. This one has been the poor stepchild in the banking group. Have had exposure to all the bad things in the market and less exposure to the good things. Would prefer Toronto Dominion (TD-T) to any of the banks right now. | 2007-12-17 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | CM-T | 74.140 | Expect this will continue to go down. There is a lot of risk in the name. Has been oversold, but doesn't see any way they are going to have a quick fix. If you own, Sell on any strength. | 2007-12-17 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Canadian Oil Sands | COS-T | 36.700 | Guidance is a little bit on the low end. Costs are going to go up. There are a lot of headwinds in the way. Would try to buy under $33. If you own, put it away for a long period of time. | 2007-12-17 | ||
| TOP PICK | Potash Corp of Saskatchewan | POT-T | 126.990 | Has been working his portfolio around the agricultural sector and sees it working out in 2008. Out of the fertilizer business, this company is the best positioned. Has about a 50% lower inventory level then the 10-year average. Not a lot of new supply coming around. Developing countries are more and more in need of fertilizer. | 2007-12-17 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Research In Motion | RIM-T | 101.020 | On a technical basis, it has not been looking very healthy recently. He feels they will meet the guidance for the quarter but is concerned about guidance for the next year. Layoffs on Wall Street could have some effect. Consumer part is good and growing. Thanks it will be trade between $90 and $110. | 2007-12-17 | ||
| TOP PICK | Shoppers Drug Mart Corp | SC-T | 53.630 | When looking for stocks that are a defensive growth, this is the one that comes to mind. Going forward, he sees 5% same store growth, 10% square footage growth and maybe a little bit of margin expansion, so you are seeing mid teens EPS growth. You're paying roughly 2X 08, 18X 09, which is not that high of the multiple. | 2007-12-17 | ||
| BUY | Thomson Reuters Corp | TRI-T | 38.610 | Totally range bound between $38 and $45 for years. With the acquisition of Reuters, you have a global dominant player but there are integration risks. Credit crunch also means layoffs on Wall Street and those are the big customers. Would not buy and hold. | 2007-12-17 | ||
| HOLD | Yellow Media Inc | YLO-T | 13.480 | A great longer-term story. They continually raise their distributions. Stock has come off fairly significantly in the last few months but has held in very well compared to some of its global peers. They have competition in their online business. Doesn't see a lot of significant upside in the near term. Could consider buying more on weakness. | 2007-12-17 | ||
| SELL | Allen-Vanguard Corp. | VRS-T | 4.870 | If you own, consider it as a tax loss sale. There is nothing imminent that is going to drive it up. On Dec 24 it will be added into the TSX index. That will give you a good opportunity to take advantage of some strength. Right now, $.84 for 08 and $1 for 09 is too high. | 2007-12-17 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Gildan Activewear Inc. | GIL-T | 40.930 | A fantastic company that is very well run. He has concerns on cotton costs. They have to execute on some new lines for Wal-Mart. Also could have tariffs put on. | 2007-12-17 | ||
| TOP PICK | Advanced Metallurgical Group | AMG-NA | 0.010 | Metallurgical silicon. Trades on the Netherlands exchange. They are a 50% plus owner of Timminco (TIM-T) so this is a good way to play that. Also a big player in the minor metals. | 2007-12-17 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Altagas Ltd | ALA-T | 22.900 | Near the higher end of their shorter term valuation. | 2005-01-13 | ||
| TOP PICK | Alimentation Couche-Tard (A) | ATD.A-T | 35.790 | An extremely well run company. Likes their acquisitions. Could sell some of their gasoline service assets. Good opportunity for growth. Trading at roughly 17 X this year's earnings. | 2005-01-13 | ||
| WEAK BUY | ATI Technologies | ATY-T (Dead) | 21.610 | Has fallen in sympathy with semi-conductors. The company is doing surprisingly well in a very tough graphics market. Nvidia has new products that seem to be getting some traction which is a little bit of a concern. Valuation compared to the group looks relatively compelling. | 2005-01-13 | ||
| SELL | Bombardier Inc (B) | BBD.B-T | 2.190 | A change of management could change how things are done. Expect it will be dead money for awhile. | 2005-01-13 | ||
| WEAK BUY | Bank of Montreal | BMO-T | 56.310 | Prefers TD and Bank of Nova Scotia. It should do well. | 2005-01-13 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Bank of Nova Scotia | BNS-T | 39.400 | Extremely well run. A huge amount of excess capital which can be used for consolidation and growth internationally. Great returns on equity. | 2005-01-13 | ||
| HOLD | Chemtrade Logisitics Inc. | CHE.UN-T | 18.100 | With the sell-off, it's becoming more attractive. The big drop on Wednesday was because of news out of the US that there was going to be a competitor in the market place on one of their products. Doesn't feel this a big concern. Should be pretty stable at this price. | 2005-01-13 | ||
| BUY | Centurion Energy International | CUX-T | 14.100 | Looks very positive after its pull-back. | 2005-01-13 | ||
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| HOLD | CryoCath Technologies | CYT-T | 6.600 | As a medical device company its got its risks. The market they are in is not fully developed, so they need to clear the FDA hurdles, develop a market and hit their milestones. Arctic Circler(R) should be a very big piece of that. Expects to have some very good news in 05/06 on this. | 2005-01-13 | ||
| BUY | Encana Corp | ECA-T | 69.380 | Not a big oil price bull, but doesn't see any significant pull-back coming. Even at $35, these guys will make a lot of money. This company has re-focused their strategy and there should be a pick up in valuation compared to their peers. | 2005-01-13 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Enbridge Income Fund Holdings | ENF-T | 13.330 | Near the higher end of their shorter term valuation. | 2005-01-13 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Home Capital Group | HCG-T | 30.800 | A big fan of this stock. Excellent business and extremely well run. They basically own the market they are in. Very impressive earnings. Should be a few more years of growth. Expects some consolidation at this level. | 2005-01-13 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Keyera Corp | KEY-T | 14.550 | Stacks up pretty well to comparable trusts. Well run. Sold their holdings when it got too high. Near the higher end of their shorter term valuation. | 2005-01-13 | ||
| BUY | Manulife Financial | MFC-T | 54.390 | Pull back is an opportunity to buy. Expects they will be buying stock back this year and a pretty big increase in the dividend. Should see growth in the core business. Asia is doing well for them. | 2005-01-13 | ||
| BUY | Nokia | NOK-N | 15.040 | Had some products issues in that they didn't have the flashy product that their competitors had. Have revamped and should see a lot of new products coming out. Margins should increase. | 2005-01-13 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Inco | N-T | 41.950 | Some large capital programs going on with this company, so probably won't issues dividends. Expects the stock will continue to tread water. Dead money. | 2005-01-13 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Russel Metals | RUS-T | 14.950 | Has been reducing his holdings and taking profit. A very profitable company. Nice dividend yield. Getting near the higher end of where it should be trading. Doesn't expect a lot of upside in the near term. | 2005-01-13 | ||
| WAIT | Royal Bank | RY-T | 62.300 | Not too excited on the near term prospects on it, but you shouldn't lose a lot here. Really need to address problems in the US. Have a great Canadian franchise. Return on Equity (ROE) is lower than the group and their capital ratios are not as good. Balance sheet is weaker. Until you see them focusing on their US problems, stay clear. | 2005-01-13 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Teck Resources Ltd. (B) | TCK.B-T | 34.000 | Has been a very good performer, mainly because of their coal play. The next couple of quarters should have good earnings. Getting expensive and earnings could fall back in the 2nd half. | 2005-01-13 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Thomson Reuters Corp | TRI-T | 41.030 | (A Top Pick Aug 26/04. Down 5%.) Still likes and considers it a core holding in some of the portfolios. Expects to see better returns on equity, invested capital. | 2005-01-13 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Vincor International Ltd. | VN-T | 35.950 | (A Top Pick Aug 26/04. Up 14%.) Still likes. Made a nice acquisition. Expects consolidation in the industry which should be positive for them. | 2005-01-13 | ||
| BUY | Transition Therapeutics Inc | TTH-T | 1.020 | Has been consolidating around the $1 for some time. Seeing some selling pressures re: warrants that were converted. A relatively high risk name, but if they are successful across one or two of the different platforms they have, stock could be significantly higher. Good management team. | 2005-01-13 | ||
| TOP PICK | Railpower Technologies Corp | P-T | 6.040 | An earlier stage company, but are moving into commercialization now. Very good management team. Expanding geographically as well as into more transit markets. A clean power type of energy. Expects them to make $0.30 a share in 06 and breaking even this year. Could be taken out by a larger company. | 2005-01-13 | ||
| HOLD | Ace Aviation Holdings Inc. (B) | ACE.B-T | 35.550 | Not a big fan of airlines and doesn't invest in them. Right now there's a couple of positive things working in their favour. There's a pick up in travel and pricing. Speculation of Airoplan being spun out into an income trust structure which would give them some money to pay off debt. | 2005-01-13 | ||
| TOP PICK | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 25.040 | A number of very good assets, but were lumped together as a conglomerate which gave a discount to its valuation. Now restructuring which should give a valuation bump. Should generate good cash flows. | 2005-01-13 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Glendale International Corp. | GIN-T | 6.300 | (A Top Pick Aug 26/04. No change.) Issued a $0.40 special dividend, so actual return is positive. Sold their holdings as they didn't like management taking on debt to pay a special dividend. | 2005-01-13 | ||
| TOP PICK | BCE Inc. | BCE-T | 27.950 | The market is in a trading range and we are at the higher end. 4.5% dividend. 5.5 X EBITA which is good discount to its US peers. Earnings growth is not bad. Expects a dividend increase this winter. | 2004-10-14 | ||
| BUY | Bank of Nova Scotia | BNS-T | 38.580 | Banks have been running hard and thinks it's because of a shift of money out of the cyclicals. Prefers Bank of Nova Scotia or Toronto Dominion. | 2004-10-14 | ||
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| BUY | Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | CM-T | 71.800 | Banks have been running hard and thinks it's because of a shift of money out of the cyclicals. Multiples are getting more in line with other banks. Prefers Bank of Nova Scotia or Toronto Dominion. | 2004-10-14 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Canadian National R.R. | CNR-T | 61.550 | One of the best run railroads in N.A. There is still a huge demand for transportation. Buy in the $55/57 range. | 2004-10-14 | ||
| BUY | Cinram | CRW.UN-T | 23.050 | Has been frustrating. Good price. Restructured their debt and reduced costs. Feels that DVD's still have at least 3 years. Good management. | 2004-10-14 | ||
| HOLD | Canadian Tire Corporation Ltd | CTC-T | 53.220 | Good momentum. Should continue to do fairly well. | 2004-10-14 | ||
| WEAK BUY | CryoCath Technologies | CYT-T | 6.750 | Using freezing instead of heat to treat injuries to the heart will be the big driver next year. Good technology that is being accepted. Long term should be good, but short term would be concerned about general market risk. | 2004-10-14 | ||
| BUY | Freehold Royalties | FRU-T | 16.200 | An ultra conservative energy trust. Very little debt. Most of their money is from royalties. If oil prices stay high, it will do very well, but if it drops, this is a safer one to be in. | 2004-10-14 | ||
| TOP PICK | IPSCO Inc | IPS-T | 31.690 | Probably the best of the bunch. Even if price of steel drops to $450 a ton, this company will make a ton of money. Trading roughly at book value. Buying back stock. | 2004-10-14 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Magna Int'l. (A) | MG-T | 87.600 | Auto cycle is having a tough time. Steel pricing is going to be a deterant on profitability. Well run company. Expects it could drop down to the $70/75 range. | 2004-10-14 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Merck & Company | MRK-N | 30.190 | Took a tremendous hit with their withdrawal of Vioxx. Buying it now would be bottom fishing. A lot of issues going on in the pharma sector now. Weak pipeline. | 2004-10-14 | ||
| BUY | Russel Metals | RUS-T | 12.450 | A nice dividend yield. Well run company. If you believe in the cyclical story of steel, this is not a bad story. Smart management. | 2004-10-14 | ||
| DON'T BUY | 724 Solutions | SVN-T | 5.350 | Some potential here and is starting to get priced into the stock. Competitive pressures are going to be an issue. | 2004-10-14 | ||
| BUY | Toronto Dominion | TD-T | 48.330 | Banks have been running hard and thinks it's because of a shift of money out of the cyclicals. Prefers Bank of Nova Scotia or Toronto Dominion. | 2004-10-14 | ||
| TOP PICK | Killam Properties Inc | KMP-T | 1.970 | Have increased their urban real estate market share from 0 to 3 1/2% on the east coast. Acquisition oriented and are able to get their properties at pretty attractive prices. Good management team. | 2004-10-14 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Altagas Ltd | ALA-T | 19.750 | (A Top Pick April 22/04. Then: $20) Stock still values about 21-22 dollars. Very well run company. | 2004-08-26 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Valeant Pharmaceuticals | VRX-T | 20.210 | The value for stock is near bottom. Have alot of issues, and no upsides. Hold for clarity later. No reason to own the stock right now. | 2004-08-26 | ||
| VAGUE | Canadian Pacific Rail | CP-T | 33.300 | As long as the economy keeps growing, the price will increase. | 2004-08-26 | ||
| HOLD | Cinram | CRW.UN-T | 21.200 | Concern for losing large contracts. However, values for stocks will increase next half of the year. | 2004-08-26 | ||
| HOLD | CryoCath Technologies | CYT-T | 6.770 | The value for stock will increase to 8 dollars. Therefore, hold the stocks. | 2004-08-26 | ||
| WATCH | Labopharm Inc | DDS-T (Dead) | 4.030 | Management is at its risk. If they start in Europe, the stock will improve. Therefore, be cautious. | 2004-08-26 | ||
| BUY | Dorel Industries (A) | DII.A-T | 36.240 | Trading now is very cheap. Buy it here because the price went down. | 2004-08-26 | ||
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| BUY | GEAC Computer | GAC-T | 8.020 | Valuation is very attractive. Many doubt ability for this company to grow organically going forward. | 2004-08-26 | ||
| VAGUE | H. J. Heinz Co. | HNZ-N | 38.030 | Very strong brand name. Valuation is at its highest. Do not see any upsides. | 2004-08-26 | ||
| VAGUE | Manitoba Telecom Services | MBT-T | 42.250 | Valuation is pulled backwards. | 2004-08-26 | ||
| SELL | Nova Chemicals Corp. | NCX-T | 42.680 | The value for stock will increase higher. Things can change really quickly. Recent run-up for 10% in last few weeks. | 2004-08-26 | ||
| VAGUE | Open Text | OTC-T | 28.580 | There is a risk to invest. However, there is a reasonable annual growth for next 12 - 18 months. At this level, this is reasonable attractive. | 2004-08-26 | ||
| VAGUE | Petro-Canada | PCA-T | 60.160 | Would not get hurt owning. There is not much of excitement in this stock. | 2004-08-26 | ||
| VAGUE | QLT Inc | QLT-T | 21.360 | More competitions coming in. It is a great business. At this level, the stock is reasonably attractive. However, up and downs for this stock is limited. | 2004-08-26 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Suncor Energy Inc | SU-T | 36.100 | Difficult to invest because of high oil price. | 2004-08-26 | ||
| TOP PICK | Thomson Reuters Corp | TRI-T | 43.460 | very well run premium company. Good free cash will come out with very limited downside. | 2004-08-26 | ||
| TOP PICK | Vincor International Ltd. | VN-T | 31.550 | Help financially for this company. This is really attractive. | 2004-08-26 | ||
| BUY | Wendy's | WEN-Q | 35.020 | Very well run. Should hold. Healthier food, which brings more families. | 2004-08-26 | ||
| TOP PICK | Weight Watchers Int'l Inc | WTW-N | 39.290 | Indications are it is going up, and it can go up to 50 dollars. But it is risky since it is a turn-around. | 2004-08-26 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Scientific Games Corp | SGMS-Q | 16.170 | (A Top Pick April 22/04. Then: $20.68) Fundamentals are still good. This business is extremely good. At this level, the stock is very attractive unless something changes dramatically. | 2004-08-26 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 32.230 | (Past top pick April 22/04. Then: $32.55.) Coors was not the best choice for Molson. Merge two companies into one was not the wisest choice they made. The value is cheap right now. | 2004-08-26 | ||
| TOP PICK | Alliance Atlantis Communications Inc. (B) | AAC.B-T (Dead) | 24.940 | Has a lot of cash flows from the CSI productions. Media companies typically do well in rising interest rate environments. Expects ad rates will rise. | 2004-06-30 | ||
| BUY | ATI Technologies | ATY-T (Dead) | 25.160 | Had great numbers. Continuing to beat up on Nvidia. Intel has not hurt them significantly. Expects good earnings momentum going forward. There could be some downside risks. | 2004-06-30 | ||
| BUY | Canadian Pacific Rail | CP-T | 32.750 | Pretty reasonable at this price. Looking to do something with some of their lines which are losing money. This should be positive for them. Economic growth should continue to be good. | 2004-06-30 | ||
| BUY | iShares Japan | EWJ-N | 10.620 | Japan looks like a reasonable place to invest in. | 2004-06-30 | ||
| BUY | Inco | N-T | 46.010 | There is a lot of hype around China. Global demand for raw materials will continue to be strong. Well-positioned. | 2004-06-30 | ||
| DON'T BUY | QLT Inc | QLT-T | 26.600 | Just did an acquisition. At this level, the stock is fairly valued. Has moved from being a biotech play to a specialty pharma. | 2004-06-30 | ||
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| BUY | Xillix Technologies Corp | XLX-T | 0.950 | Expect there will be some news out in the next 3/6 months. Good technology. A viable business. | 2004-06-30 | ||
| BUY | Alimentation Couche-Tard (B) | ATD.B-T | 23.370 | Margins have been heard on the retail gasoline side. No seeing the transition happen with their big acquisition. There will be good earnings and cash flow growth. Good management team. | 2004-06-30 | ||
| TOP PICK | Eurozinc Mining Corp | EZM-T | 0.700 | Recently acquired a property near them in Portugal at a very good price. This makes them a mid-tier copper producer with significant cash flow. Very undervalued, under followed and undernoted. | 2004-06-30 | ||
| BUY | Canaccord Financial Inc | CF-T | 10.740 | Very much leveraged to capital markets. Well-run. As long as the markets continue their positive bias and the economy does well, they should do very well. | 2004-06-30 | ||
| TOP PICK | Allen-Vanguard Corp. | VRS-T | 4.300 | Have patented technology. Widely used by security and police forces. Homeland Security is a customer. Will be profitable this year. | 2004-06-30 | ||
| BUY | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 33.980 | Has bounced up a little, but not a bad entry point. If it drops $1/1.50 it would be a great entry point. You'll have to be patient with this holding is there aren't a lot of catalysts. Potentially, it could be up for sale. | 2004-06-30 | ||
| TOP PICK | Altagas Ltd | ALA-T | 20.000 | Converting into an income trust. The recent weakness offers a pretty attractive entry point. | 2004-04-22 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Bombardier Inc (B) | BBD.B-T | 6.590 | Good management structure. There's a lot of work to do in this company. Too expensive for the risks. | 2004-04-22 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Bennet Environmental | BEV-T | 18.310 | The price is looking more reasonable and would consider at under $15. Wait for the next quarter and look at the commentary on issues they have been facing. | 2004-04-22 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Bristol Myers Squibb | BMY-N | 24.700 | Pays over 4% dividends. Has had its share of screw ups over the last couple of years. Doesn't have a lot of faith in the management. Would prefer owning a Pfizer or a European one. | 2004-04-22 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Valeant Pharmaceuticals | VRX-T | 23.050 | Starting to look interesting at these levels but there could be further weakness. There are a lot of issues going on with the company so doesn't expect the stock will move up anytime soon. | 2004-04-22 | ||
| DON'T BUY | ConjuChem Inc | CJB-T (Dead) | 13.800 | Has had a huge move. Has moved too far, too fast. Solid programs. Expensive. | 2004-04-22 | ||
| BUY | Cinram | CRW.UN-T | 24.000 | Feels their year will be as strong as expected, if not a little better. Some concern on the MGM contract if MGM is sold but they have three years on it. Has been oversold. | 2004-04-22 | ||
| WEAK BUY | Cisco | CSCO-Q | 23.150 | May be getting too big to grow. Very good business model and strong cash flow. Not cheap, but they will continue to grow their earnings for the next few quarters. | 2004-04-22 | ||
| BUY | CryoCath Technologies | CYT-T | 6.520 | In a very large and growing market. A technology that is getting more and more accepted. Expecting very large revenue growth out of them this year. New products coming out in the third quarter. Could eventually be a takeover target. | 2004-04-22 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Dorel Industries (A) | DII.A-T | 43.400 | (A top pick Jan 28/04. Up 5.3%.) New products coming on. An acquisition that will accretive to earnings. | 2004-04-22 | ||
| DON'T BUY | EMC Corp | EMC-N | 12.440 | Moving out of storage and into information guidance and have met with fairly reasonable success. Stock has had a fairly big move. Has moved too far, too fast. | 2004-04-22 | ||
| WAIT | Falconbridge Ltd | FAL-T | 32.850 | Feels commodities are in a bull market but in the near term, will see continued weakness. Wait for it to settle down. | 2004-04-22 | ||
| BUY | General Electric | GE-N | 30.850 | Offers reasonable value. Not cheap. Higher interest rates will hurt somewhat. A defensive play and looking at an upside of 10/15%. | 2004-04-22 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Motorola | MSI-N | 20.720 | Getting pricey. Have great products. Have done a good job in restructuring. | 2004-04-22 | ||
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| PAST TOP PICK | Martinrea | MRE-T | 6.920 | (A top pick Jan 28/04. Down 5.7%.) Still likes. Great management team. Auto industry is starting to look at little healthier. We continue to buy under $6.50. | 2004-04-22 |
