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| Gerald Allaye-Chan of Blackmont Capital |
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| TOP PICK | Apple | AAPL-Q | 135.810 | Excellent momentum. Sold 11 million iPods last quarter with 9 million as the estimate. Also sold 3.9 million iPhones with the estimate at 3.35 million. | 2009-05-29 | ||
| Comment | Bank of Montreal | BMO-T | 43.800 | Would be most cautious with this given their US exposure. Continue to have significant exposure to structured investment vehicles. Exposure to commercial real estate in the US. Would be cautious on Canadian banks in general. If you own banks, consider taking some money off the table. | 2009-05-29 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Inter Pipeline Fund | IPL.UN-T | 8.730 | Very well run business. Likes the surety of their cash flows. Decent growth possibilities in this. Very handsome yield. | 2009-05-29 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Manulife Financial | MFC-T | 23.500 | Been volatile and will continue to be so given their exposure to guaranteed variable annuities. A lot depends on the equity market. In the short term, the market is slightly overbought so there is a small downside risk. Would buy in the mid to high teens. Prefers Industrial Alliance (IAG-T) or Great West Life (GWO-T). | 2009-05-29 | ||
| BUY | Potash Corp of Saskatchewan | POT-T | 125.900 | In the short term demand for fertilizers has been very weak but expect renewed demands for them come fall. Good long-term stock. A cheaper alternative would be Mosaic (MOS-N) and potentially provides a little more upside. | 2009-05-29 | ||
| TOP PICK | Research In Motion | RIM-T | 85.530 | Continues to have very good business momentum. In the latest quarter they sold 3.9 million Blackberries and the estimate was only 3.3 million. Have 19.5% share of the smart phone market and growing. Guidance that margins will be growing. | 2009-05-29 | ||
| HOLD | Royal Bank | RY-T | 43.700 | Long-term this one is definitely a hold. Has been very well managed and diversified. Will be a winner in the long-term. | 2009-05-29 | ||
| Comment | Sunlife Financial | SLF-T | 28.710 | Will be volatile given their exposure to guaranteed variable annuities. In the last quarter issued a preferred share that supports their balance sheet. Had partial ownership of CI Financial that they sold so they are very well capitalized. Long-term hold but in the short term, will be impacted by any weakness in the market. | 2009-05-29 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Talisman Energy | TLM-T | 17.710 | Great set of unconventional natural gas assets in North America as well as some growth assets of light and sweet crude in Asia. Will be funded by the strong cash flows they are generating from the UK North Sea. Likes the valuation and the balance sheet and would add on a pullback. | 2009-05-29 | ||
| Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Cdn$: Has moved up because of the flow away from the US$ and US index has dropped substantially. Also renewed strength in the commodity sector has been a factor. Expect to see continued strength for the next while and at some point will hit parity once again. | 2009-05-29 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Penn West Petroleum | PWT-T | 15.270 | In the past 5 years they have been a very active acquirer. His concern is their fairly high debt level. Depleting reserves by about 40,000 barrels per day and to replace will be expensive. | 2009-05-29 | ||
| TOP PICK | Migao Corp. | MGO-T | 8.080 | Specialty potash/fertilizer products company that is based out of China. Have 4 facilities in China now with three facilities under construction. Trading at about 8.5X earnings. Debt-free. Excellent play on both agricultural markets and the growing China market. | 2009-05-29 | ||
| TOP PICK | Apple | AAPL-Q | 123.420 | Both RIM and Apple recently reported record revenues during a recession. Anticipating new products. Very strong balance sheet, over 24 Billion in cash. Any acquisitions they make would be very small. | 2009-04-17 | ||
| SELL | Bank of Montreal | BMO-T | 40.410 | Prefers National and Royal. Lot of exposure to US loans (30%). Lighten your load. | 2009-04-17 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Bank of Nova Scotia | BNS-T | 33.770 | International exposure that they have will pay off long term but it has impacted their loan losses. Would prefer banks. | 2009-04-17 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Caterpillar | CAT-N | 32.290 | Tough market right now. 30-60% decline in demand expected. Lots of used equipment out there and price has come down. Avoid buying or hold if 5 years or more horizon. | 2009-04-17 | ||
| SELL | CitiGroup | C-N | 3.650 | Concerned about US banks. Would take profit. Potential for increases in loan losses. Doesn’t think bad news is over with. | 2009-04-17 | ||
| BUY | Canadian Natural Rsrcs | CNQ-T | 57.530 | Doing well in horizons oil project. | 2009-04-17 | ||
| Comment | Manulife Financial | MFC-T | 20.810 | Should not have to raise equity in the short term. They’re good for now. A good part of their valuation is based on their equity portfolio. If Equity markets fall back, shares will fall off. | 2009-04-17 | ||
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| TOP PICK | Research In Motion | RIM-T | 83.350 | Stock has fallen on concerns of gross margin but in most recent quarter gross margin increased. Thinks multiple expansion will continue because investors are confident that margins will stay at current levels. Concern is competition from iPhone, Nokia and others. | 2009-04-17 | ||
| TOP PICK | Teva Pharmaceutical | TEVA-Q | 44.530 | World's largest drug market and will benefit from US push to lower health care costs. Likes it for growth. Likely to see 30% in short term. Biggest risk is the development of new drug candidates. | 2009-04-17 | ||
| WAIT | Trans Canada Corp | TRP-T | 30.150 | Good outlook; embarking on an ambitious capital program to expand pipelines. There will be an earnings drag due to financing needs short term. You are paid to wait (5% dividend) for the long term. | 2009-04-17 | ||
| Comment | Simon Property Group Inc. | SPG-N | 49.340 | With Bear ETFs there is the potential slippage in value due to the leverage. | 2009-04-17 | ||
| Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Thinks market sentiment has changed from a month ago. There has been some optimism that investors can grasp. Economic data has stabilized. It will be a ‘W’ shaped recovery, rather than a ‘V’ shaped. Look for areas that will see a more sustainable rally. Look at stocks with good balance sheets and without a need to raise capital. This wont be a smooth ride forward. | 2009-04-17 | ||
| BUY | Agnico-Eagle Mines | AEM-T | 63.920 | Likely to double production in each of the next 2 years. | 2009-03-06 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Bank of America | BAC-N | 3.140 | Absolutely no visibility in their business. Nobody knows what is behind the balance sheet at this point. There is huge risk in this one. | 2009-03-06 | ||
| BUY | Bombardier Inc (B) | BBD.B-T | 2.440 | Likes the situation. Their Q400 Turboprop is selling very well. There are concerns about their business jet division but they have a very strong mass transit business. Cheap. | 2009-03-06 | ||
| BUY | BCE Inc. | BCE-T | 24.060 | Have recently increased their dividends. Beat expectations quite handily in the last quarter. Cutting costs. Dividend yield of about 6%. | 2009-03-06 | ||
| TOP PICK | Valeant Pharmaceuticals | VRX-T | 13.910 | Believes the dividend of 13.86% is sustainable. Generates a significant amount of free cash flow. Also have over $300 million in cash and no debt. Changing their strategy by looking to develop drugs for the central nervous system. That area has good growth. Many good acquisition last year. | 2009-03-06 | ||
| Comment | Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | CM-T | 37.500 | 10% capital note with 100-year maturity. Cautious about these hybrid securities. He didn't participate in the offerings. Don't treat it as fixed income, but treat it as a preferred share. | 2009-03-06 | ||
| DON'T BUY | CitiGroup | C-N | 1.030 | Absolutely no visibility in their business. Nobody knows what is behind the balance sheet at this point. There is huge risk in this one. | 2009-03-06 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Manulife Financial | MFC-T | 9.650 | Dividend risk is there but the big concern lies with variable annuities and segregated funds. At the end of 2008, within the segregated funds portion, believes there was a shortfall between guaranteed values of the segregated funds vs. the portfolio value of about $27 billion. Gap is probably much wider now. However, guarantees are 7 to 30 years away, not 1 or 2 years. Stock could drop further because of investors’ fears. | 2009-03-06 | ||
| BUY | Potash Corp of Saskatchewan | POT-T | 84.970 | Shares have fallen in the last 2 days because one of their competitors in Russia announced a deal with Brazil to sell potash at lower prices. However, this contract is only for 3 months. Agriculture is a great place to be. | 2009-03-06 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Teck Resources Ltd. (B) | TCK.B-T | 3.900 | Acquired Fording Coal at too high a price and they're going to have to figure out a way to pay the bridge loan. This will likely include selling off a substantial amount of assets. | 2009-03-06 | ||
| TOP PICK | Teva Pharmaceutical | TEVA-Q | 44.320 | Worlds largest maker of generic drugs. US administration is likely to push forward towards greater use of generics that would give them a $9.2 billion savings over the next 10 years. This company will be a beneficiary. Made an acquisition last year of Barr Pharmaceuticals, which will give them good synergies. | 2009-03-06 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Major Drilling Group International Inc | MDI-T | 11.100 | Very well positioned company. He is fairly cautious on the base metals segment. Even in an economic recovery, base metals will likely be the last to move up. | 2009-03-06 | ||
| TOP PICK | Apollo Group Inc. | APOL-Q | 64.690 | Largest provider of post-secondary education, at least as a public company. In extremely good growth right now. Over 30% earnings growth and 20% revenue growth in the latest quarter. Great balance sheet. $800 million in cash and no debt. | 2009-03-06 |
