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Duncan Stewart of Duncan Stewart Asset Management
141 Adelaide St. W, Suite 320
Toronto ON
M5H 3L5
416.367.3726
Duncan Stewart's website
Fax: 416.367.3727
dstewart@dsam.ca

Opinions from Duncan Stewart

CommentHemisphere GPS Inc.HEM-T4.600They use differential GPS that tells a farmer exactly where to put the grain and the kind of fertilizer to be used.2008-06-03
DON'T BUYBiovail Corp.BVF-T11.790Doesn't like their old strategy of trying to make “hard to manufacture” generics. New management has a completely viable strategy focusing on high-value add central nervous system drugs. However, they have never shown any skill set and it's a very competitive market.2008-06-03
BUYTata Motors Ltd.TTM-N13.300Likes auto manufacturers in general. India and China will continue using more cars. A lot of Indian companies seem to be under pressure. Thinks their market has been oversold. As a pair trade, you could go long on this one and short on a US manufacturer.2008-06-03
SELLPfizer IncPFE-N19.0106.73% dividend. Doesn't see a lot of prospects in their pipeline. Some of their big money makers are in a lot of jeopardy from competition. If you like pharmaceuticals, consider moving into Johnson & Johnson (JNJ-N).2008-06-03
BUYJohnson & JohnsonJNJ-N66.760If you like pharmaceuticals, consider moving into Johnson & Johnson (JNJ-N).2008-06-03
CommentGeneral ElectricGE-N30.460Caller wants to sell for tax loss and re-buy in a month’s time. A: Good idea. Only risk you run is watching the stock move significantly afterwards. He doesn't see anything crystallizing for the next 3 months so he would re-buy in August.2008-06-03
CommentNokiaNOK-N27.530Industry leader and profitable. Average selling prices a really coming down and if he saw any deceleration in India, China and the developing world is prices would drop faster. Reasonable at this price but he would rather own Research in Motion (RIM-T).2008-06-03
BUYBank of MontrealBMO-T47.900Likes the overall Canadian financial sector. Canadian banks have higher ROE’s than most of their global peers.2008-06-03
BUYNational Bank of CanadaNA-T54.400Likes the overall Canadian financial sector. Canadian banks have higher ROE’s than most of their global peers.2008-06-03
HOLDPotash Corp of SaskatchewanPOT-T213.300Perfectly valid to own fertilizer manufacturers. He leans towards Agrium (AGU-T) as he likes their strategy of getting into the distribution chain. He sees no signs that the fertilizer boom is going to change in the near term.2008-06-03
HOLDAgriumAGU-T90.110Likes their strategy of getting into the distribution chain. He sees no signs whatsoever that this fertilizer boom is going to change in the near term.2008-06-03
DON'T BUYVecima Networks Inc.VCM-T5.850Good little company. Well run. Have 3 different businesses. A little out of favour as it is a diversified, small-cap, Canadian technology stock. There will be a lot of concerns on their WiMAX product portfolio. A lot of people feel that WiMAX will not happen until 2010/2011.2008-06-03
TOP PICKThomson Reuters CorpTRI-T36.150They sell added value information. Information is more important than it ever was. This is going to be an absolute cash machine. Feels it has decent level of 5% to 15% growth. Huge cash flow.2008-06-03
TOP PICKRuggedCom Inc.RCM-T14.100Manufacture networking gear that is used at power stations and substations. Allows smart-grid technology so that you can use electricity more efficiently so the network doesn't go down or break.2008-06-03
TOP PICKResearch In MotionRIM-T134.600(Pair trade going long RIM and short Palm.) Apple (AAPL-Q) lost share in smart phones, RIM picked up about 10 points and Palm picked up about 5 or 6 points but Apple doesn't have its iPhone in stores today. Apple will be coming out with a really hot phone and will probably kill Palm’s resurgence.2008-06-03
TOP SHORTPalm Inc.PALM-Q6.570(Pair trade going long RIM and short Palm.) Apple (AAPL-Q) lost share in smart phones, RIM picked up about 10 points and Palm picked up about 5 or 6 points but Apple doesn't have its iPhone in stores today. Apple will be coming out with a really hot phone and will probably kill Palm’s resurgence.2008-06-03
SELLBCE Inc.BCE-T34.600A bet that the Supreme Court overrules the lower court's decision on the bondholders or that the company is able to come to a reasonable settlement with the bondholders. Doesn't think the lower court's decision will be overturned.2008-06-03
TOP PICKThomson Reuters CorpTRI-T38.580This is a pairs trade by going Long Thomson Reuters (TRI-T) and Shorting Torstar (TS.B-T). One of the weird things happening is that people are still subscribing to newspapers but are not opening them. Contrast that with Thomson Reuters that is selling data.2008-04-25
TOP SHORTTorstarCorp (B)TS.B-T17.280This is a pairs trade by going Long on Thomson Reuters (TRI-T) and Shorting Torstar (TS.B-T). One of the weird things happening is that people are still subscribing to newspapers but are not opening them. Contrast that with Thomson Reuters that is selling data.2008-04-25
TOP PICKGeorge Weston Ltd. (Pref.)WN.PR.A-T20.750A pairs trade. Going Long on George Weston preferreds (WN.PR.A-T) and Shorting Loblaws (L-T). Although this one does have a big stake in Loblaws (L-T), it has a 7% yield, first call on Loblaws’ assets and most of their value is derived out of the bakery goods.2008-04-25
TOP SHORTLoblawsL-T29.400A pairs trade. Going Long on George Weston preferreds (WN.PR.A-T) and Shorting Loblaws (L-T). They cannot get their Information Technology behind them. Out of stock signs are all over the place. Wal-Mart is coming in. Prices are declining. There is no improvement in Canada for the grocery stores.2008-04-25
TOP PICKXantrex Technology Inc.XTX-T8.350Green tech company based out of Vancouver. Have done surprisingly well under everybody's radar. Almost $250 million in annual revenue. They make the gear that takes the electricity off the renewable resource and puts it in a conditioned proper form onto the electrical grid. A world leader in this space.2008-04-25
BUYItron Inc.ITRI-Q102.780Manufactures advanced meters for reducing power consumption. Billions of dollars of contracts.2008-04-25
BUYResearch In MotionRIM-T122.250Players like Nokia, LG and Motorola in the cell phone market are not doing that well. The 2 who are doing well are Apple (AAPL-Q) with the iPhones and this company with their Blackberry. Nothing will ever be as good as this for text messaging and reading e-mails.2008-04-25
BUYAppleAAPL-Q169.730Players like Nokia, LG and Motorola in the cell phone market are not doing that well. The 2 who are doing well are Apple (AAPL-Q) with the iPhones and this company with their Blackberry. This one is an incredibly effective media play device as well as a web browser.2008-04-25
CommentCameco CorporationCCO-T37.100Seems to have a jinx. Close to its lows. Taking the right steps in the right direction for the flooding at Cigar Lake.2008-04-25
CommentCameco CorporationCCO-T37.100Seems to have a jinx. Close to its lows. Taking the right steps in the right direction for the flooding at Cigar Lake.2008-04-25
BUYBank of MontrealBMO-T49.660No one bank seems to do really well over the long term or really badly over the long-term. Right now, this bank has gotten completely hammered. Likes this one at this price. 2nd-highest yielding bank after the National (NA-T). 5.7% yield.2008-04-25
DON'T BUYSierra WirelessSW-T19.980Bouncing off the bottom quite nicely. Competition Novatel Wireless (NVTL-Q) is stumbling rather badly. Introduced some new products that are doing really well. However, there are technologies like Wimax from Intel (INTC-Q), which could enormously disrupt their business. Well run company with strong products and strong partnerships. He doesn't like the risk.2008-04-25
CommentA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA Commentary0.020Infrastructure: - Spending on infrastructure has been dramatically under spent for 50 years. We will pay the price going forward. Don't worry about which stock, as they will all perform well.2008-04-25
SELLNortelNT-T8.500Ericsson (ERIC-Q) just reported and did better than expected. Is that a sign of life for this company? It doesn't look like it to him. One company in Germany is ripping out Nortel’s gear and replacing it from a Chinese competitor.2008-04-25
BUYIntelINTC-Q22.560It is not a great time for this company. PC sales are going up but the pricing is coming down. They continue to fight AMD (AMD-N) very hard on price so gross margins are not quite what they should be. However, as a 5-year hold in the technology space, this is probably one of his top 2 picks. Doing very well in the semiconductor design space.2008-04-25
BUY on WEAKNESSCGI Group (A)GIB.A-T11.720The utility of the Canadian, so don't look at it to double or triple. Chart indicates it is a perfect trading vehicle. Seems to bounce between $10 and $12.2008-04-25
DON'T BUYVisa Inc.V-N75.100Pricing on this is quite high. Had a spectacular run. One of his big concerns is its ability to control fraud going forward. If fraud goes too high, there would be less use of credit cards. He would prefer it in the $60 range.2008-04-25
DON'T BUYMastercard Inc.MA-N237.390Pricing on this is quite high. Had a spectacular run. One of his big concerns is its ability to control fraud going forward. If fraud goes too high, there would be less use of credit cards.2008-04-25
CommentGeneral ElectricGE-N33.330Investing a lot of their capital and alternative energies. For companies in the green space, he prefers Itron (ITRI-Q).2008-04-25
DON'T BUYLoblawsL-T29.400Q: Kroger (KR-N) versus Loblaws (L-T). A: The real challenge for Loblaws is not just the entry of Wal-Mart (WMT-N); they have not spent properly on their IT system. Shelves are not stocked properly and he does not see this changing soon. Departure of 3 top executives indicates the coming quarter is probably going to be quite bad. One of his funds is actually short this stock.2008-04-25
BUYKroger Co.KR-N26.390Good, well run company. Have been successful in dealing with Wal-Mart (WMT-N) for a long time. If you want to stay in the food sector, this would be a safe bet.2008-04-25
CommentYellow Pages Income FundYLO.UN-T11.000Well run company with a very strong franchise and brand. A lot of people discard their directory and instead, use the Internet. The Internet is also their salvation in that it looks like they are going to be working with Google (GOOG-Q) and try to keep their brand and position to retain some revenue stream. Not a growth stock. Only buy for the dividend.2008-04-25
BUYAgriumAGU-T90.300Fertilizer plays are the way he would go to play the Asian agricultural sector. Potash currently has spot prices of $1000 plus per ton. This will not be sustainable but it looks like prices are going up.2008-04-25
BUYPotash Corp of SaskatchewanPOT-T210.400Fertilizer plays are the way he would go to play the Asian agricultural sector. Potash currently has spot prices of $1000 plus per ton. This will not be sustainable but it looks like prices are going up.2008-04-25
BUYAbsolute Software Corp.ABT-T12.640Volatile. Rumours on the street believed there was competition from Phoenix Technologies (PTEC-Q) for their low jack technology. Phoenix’s results just came out and they don't seem to have any sales or partners. Right now, this company is the dominant player in the space. Just got bundled with Fujitsu.2008-04-25
BUYMicrosoftMSFT-Q29.830At the sub-$30 level, you want to take a look at this stock. About to introduce some virtualization software, which will allow them to steal some market share from VMware(VMW-N). Buy it under $30 and if it reaches $36, take some money off the table.2008-04-25
DON'T BUYPfizer IncPFE-N20.430The trouble he has with the big pharmaceuticals is that they are having a terribly hard time reinventing themselves. They all have good yields. The FDA right now is turning the taps off. It is harder and harder to get approval. Would be very cautious on this sector. The one exception is Johnson & Johnson (JNJ-N), which seems to have a better approach than their peers.2008-04-25
CommentWi-Lan Inc.WIN-T1.890Doesn't really make anything. Has a whole bunch of patents. One of the problems with patents is that it is really hard to determine their value. At this price, it is a reasonable punt but it is speculative.2008-04-25
BUYTim HortonsTHI-T34.340(Market Call Minute.) It should be relatively economically insensitive. A consumer staple.2008-04-25
SELLEMC CorpEMC-N15.540(Market Call Minute.) Love them as a company but unfortunately they own too many shares of VMware (VM-N), which is going to get crushed in the back half of this year.2008-04-25
HOLDJDS UniphaseJDU-T15.040(Market Call Minute.) Although the optic business is coming back, the valuation is still too high.2008-04-25
SELLBiovail Corp.BVF-T11.310(Market Call Minute.) Can't go up from here. Just had another change in management and there are no products on the horizon.2008-04-25
DON'T BUYMitec TelecomMTM-T1.140Their success is partly hinged on Nortel's wireless side. Not sure either one will get their act together. A low level product producer. Not a fan of management.2004-11-12
WEAK BUYNortelNT-T3.580Have gone from having some credibility to none. Owns it because it's the cheapest telecom equipment manufacturer today. They are good at Voice over IP, wireless stuff and optical components are good and products are selling.2004-11-12
DON'T BUYJDS UniphaseJDU-T3.720Long haul fibre networks are still not full. "Fibre to the home" is really expensive and not sure that JDS is perfectly levered to that. Valuation is high.2004-11-12
WEAK BUYWestaim CorpWED-T3.300Their technology looks pretty interesting, but they have never made a lot for retail sales. Looks like they will be manufacturing, and if they can do it a reasonable costs it could be OK.2004-11-12
HOLDLucent TechnologiesLU-N3.900Looked like it was dead, but have acgtually turned around a fair bit. Not making much money and haved an enormous pension liability. If telecoms stay good, it'll be OK.2004-11-12
BUYCiscoCSCO-Q19.260A much better company than Lucent. A lot of cash. Very smart managment and great products. China's competition is a threat.2004-11-12
DON'T BUYVSM MedTech Ltd.VSM-T0.690CFO is gone and they have laid off the COO. Have sold zero units of their new technology. Running out of cash.2004-11-12
BUYZarlinkZL-T3.110Have sales, cash and a respectable balance sheet. Decent products. Very cheap semiconductor stock, but not a fan of semiconductors. A lot of cash has to go for R&D. Big upside if they end up with right products and economy is good.2004-11-12
HOLDChromos Molecular Systems Inc.CHR-T0.570Good technology which should win Nobel prizes 5/10 years. Running out of cash. The big question is; will they survive.2004-11-12
WEAK BUYCGI Group (A)GIB.A-T7.950A terribly dull industry with not a lot of growth. Management is very good at making acquisitions. Not a fan of outsourcing. Made a recent acquisition giving the risk of integration. Pretty good balance sheet and a bit of a safe bet. Good price.2004-11-12
DON'T BUYStressgen Biotechnologies CorpSSB-T0.440Trying to raise $50 million which is equivalent/more than their entire market cap.2004-11-12
DON'T BUYBiovail Corp.BVF-T20.360Got a letter from the FDA saying their drug Remedal (?) saying it was approvable (not approved). Thinks they will have to run another trial which will be expensive and delay the appproval. Thinks we will get a nasty surprise.2004-11-12
HOLDATI TechnologiesATY-T23.020Great company. $1 billion revenue. Industry leader. Technology goes into many, many products. Too much of their business is focused on the PC industry which is not a growth industry. Intel will be a strong competitor. Short term could get back to $27/28.2004-11-12
BUYAudiocodes Ltd.AUDC-Q13.910Voice over IP is real technology and this is his preferred pure play.2004-11-12
BUYEricsson LM TelephoneERIC-Q33.350In wireless, this would probably be their top pick. Prefers over Nokia.2004-11-12
DON'T BUYNokiaNOK-N16.630Prefers Ericsson.2004-11-12
DON'T BUYResearch In MotionRIM-T98.600Being sued by NTP which has won all of their lawsuits so far. If they win again, downside could be enormous. Has trouble handling this.2004-11-12
DON'T BUYSierra WirelessSW-T21.390Thinks their new device VOQ is in an awfully tough space. Also has a lot of competition in their card (?) space. Could hover around this level for awhile.2004-11-12
HOLDMicrosoftMSFT-Q29.970If you buy for the dividend, the stock will then drop $3, so not much of a pickup. A dominate company with a lot of cash which they will be spending on Search Engine to copmpete with Google. There is upside.2004-11-12
TOP PICKAnorMed IncAOM-T6.280Likes their product AMD-3100 which harvests bone marrow cells with remarkable effect prior to chemo therapy. Lots of cash. Has more upside and less risk than the average biotech.2004-11-12
TOP PICKCalian TechnologyCTY-T10.950Has a technology side that demonstrated some pretty good growth. SDE is aimed at defense department. Significantly profitable. Should make a $1 this year which is only 10 X earnings. Good dividend.2004-11-12
TOP PICKSupertex Inc.SUPX-Q22.820Makes semiconductors that operate in high voltage. Good well run company. Good management.2004-11-12


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