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| David Driscoll of Toron Capital Mgmnt |
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| DON'T BUY | Bank of America | BAC-N | 13.330 | This and CitiGroup (C-N) are the 2 banks that have struggled the most because of all the loan/loss provisions they had to deal with. Took on acquisitions that have not paid off yet. | 2011-03-31 | ||
| DON'T BUY | CitiGroup | C-N | 4.420 | Just marginally getting permission to start issuing dividends again they come off the TARP program. Will take a while. Efficiency ratio is bad, high costs ROE are low and Tier 1 capital is still very low so there is a lot of risk being shown in the share price. Their bonds would be better. | 2011-03-31 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Goldcorp Inc | G-T | 48.340 | (A Top Pick April 7/10. Up 21.38%.) His anchor against inflation. Chose this one because of the low political risk. Mexican mine is just coming on board with low costs in the $300 range. Increased dividends in the last 2 quarters. Also a big silver producer, so if silver starts to catch up to gold, they will participate. | 2011-03-31 | ||
| WATCH | Inter Pipeline Fund | IPL.UN-T | 17.080 | Pipelines are getting construction activity, which is why it is having a bit of a move right now. Yield of about 5.6%. Steady and very consistent payer. Don’t expect a lot of growth as utilities have had a lot of their run already. Technicals indicate it is very overbought right now so wait for it to be oversold. | 2011-03-31 | ||
| DON'T BUY | National Bank of Canada | NA-T | 78.790 | Canadian banks are too rich right now from a valuation perspective. If the Wellington-West deal goes through, gives them more trading activity. He is always hesitant to invest in a non-retail bank. | 2011-03-31 | ||
| TOP PICK | Novo-Nordisk | NVO-N | 125.230 | (Buys on Danish exchange for a better bid/offer spread and more liquidity than with ADRs.) Largest insulin manufacturer pharmaceutical globally. Diabetic cases expected to rise 50% over the next 20years, particularly in India and China. Very good at patent protection. Trading at a discount to where its growth rate is expected. | 2011-03-31 | ||
| BUY | Novartis AG | NVS-N | 54.350 | Plenty of products outstanding. Likes them in that they are trying to focus on taking one drug and using it in as many ways as possible. R&D is important. Pharmaceuticals all have a ton of cash. In the top 5 of having highest percentage of R&D to revenues. (See Top Picks.) | 2011-03-31 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Royal Bank | RY-T | 59.990 | Still having to deal with its US operations. Have done well in wealth management. Valuations are very high relative to the rest. Loan and deposit growth is starting to mature and slow down. Will probably not raise dividends for a little while. | 2011-03-31 | ||
| WEAK BUY | Shoppers Drug Mart Corp | SC-T | 39.860 | At these levels it’s an OK investment but will probably not go through the roof since growth is starting to decline and margins are being pressed by any kind of government intervention in what the pricing strategies can be. Currently operating margins are 9% versus the industry of 5%-6%. | 2011-03-31 | ||
| PARTIAL BUY | SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. | SNC-T | 55.240 | 57% of revenue outside of North America, which gives exposure to emerging markets. Brazil is a big area for them now. Environmental and green energy is going to be a big move forward. For every project they build, usually end up with the maintenance contract. Conside half a position now and the balance under $50. | 2011-03-31 | ||
| Comment | Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold | FCX-N | 55.550 | Prefers BHP Billiton (BHP-N), which has no debt and more integrated assets. (See Top Picks.) | 2011-03-31 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Uni-Select Inc | UNS-T | 26.120 | (A Top Pick April 7/10. Down 2.59%.) A wholesale seller of auto parts in Canada and the US. Biggest thing holding them back has been US sales when translated into Cdn$’s. Had to sell off their heavy-duty asset side of the business so now totally focused on autos and trucks. Weakness in the Cdn$ or a pickup in the US economy will be needed to get them going again. Trading around 7-8 times earnings, so not expensive. | 2011-03-31 | ||
| TOP PICK | BHP Billiton Ltd. | BHP-N | 95.880 | Very little outstanding debt. Can continue to make its acquisitions and raise its dividends. One stop-shop for all you mining needs. Could possibly be pumping out a lot of potash out of Saskatchewan in 5 years. | 2011-03-31 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Westpac Banking Corp | WBK-N | 125.100 | Australian banks are almost in line with US banks. Not doing as well as Cdn banks. Would prefer their bonds instead. | 2011-03-31 | ||
| Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Still not back to the indexes where the market was in 2007 so no surprise that the market really moved between August and February before the mini-correction in March. Hasn’t happened since 1948and 1982 when there where huge market rallies. Bulls will say that it is the 3rd year of the presidential cycle and earnings are still growing to the degree that if earnings are going up faster than prices, then obviously P/E multiples are coming down to make it a decent market for growth. On the flip side there are all the macro economic fears that Bears will put on for European debt issues, Japan’s nuclear disaster and the US housing market. If we get inflation or deflation you should have something to act as an insurance policy in your portfolio. | 2011-03-31 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Lloyds TSB Group PLC | LYG-N | 3.700 | In rising inflation, banks can get hurt, so be careful. Some of the important metrics are 1) efficiency ratio (handling costs), 2) tier 1 capital ratio (now that the Basil 3 rules are coming in to play), 3) ROE and 4) percentage of non-performing assets (should be 2% or less). This one has high efficiency ratios, deposit growth and loan growth are missing and Tier one ratios are in line with US banks. | 2011-03-31 | ||
| Comment | Banco Santander SA | STD-N | 11.710 | Has handled the financial crisis fairly well. Loan loss of provisions of about 4% versus 2% so write offs are about twice as high as Cdn banks. Risk/reward is probably 20% on the downside but if growth outside of Spain improves and starts to improve in 5 years, you could double your money. The crux of the issue is how long are they going to take. (Owns Banco Bilbao Vizcaya (BBVE-N).) | 2011-03-31 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Telefonica S.A. | TEF-SM | 0.010 | (A Top Pick April 7/10. Up 15.73%.) Dividend yield is around 7%-7.5% and have said they will continue to raise it probably through 2015. Still a Buy. | 2011-03-31 | ||
| SELL | China BAK Battery | CBAK-Q | 1.810 | When you buy speculative stocks, it’s very important that you own a basket of them so that maybe 2 of them will pay for the other 8. This case is the lithium ion batteries and sales in Tai Wan and India have fallen off a cliff. Earnings have gone down and sales have flat lined and are running out of cash. Leveraged to about 2 to 3 times equity. | 2011-03-31 | ||
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| TOP PICK | Jardine Matheson | JM-SP | 0.010 | Singapore Exchange but trades in US$’s. Huge conglomerate owning hotels, Hong Kong real estate, dairy farms, grocery stores, heavy equipment sales, car dealers, etc. Have price to cash flow of around 3 or 4 times. With dividend growth in the 10%-20% range it has a lot of legs behind it. | 2011-03-31 | ||
| DON'T BUY | CitiGroup | C-N | 4.150 | For any of the US banks it will take time for performance to improve. A lot if them are trading at around 6 to 10 earnings. | 2010-11-29 | ||
| TOP PICK | Canadian National R.R. | CNR-T | 65.520 | Growth with their container plant and growth in shipping volumes. Good balance sheet. Fairly cheap. Free cash flow continues to grow at a 10% range and expects Feb dividend to get a 10% bump. | 2010-11-29 | ||
| TOP PICK | Foment Economico Mexican | FMX-N | 56.180 | Coca Cola bottler for Latin and South America as well as convenience stores. Good growth rate in Latin and South America. Population is much younger so there will be growth in sales. Try to Buy at under $50. 1.15% yield. | 2010-11-29 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Novo-Nordisk | NVO-N | 100.480 | (A Top Pick Dec 29/09. Up 61.3%.) Yield of 1%. Still a Buy. | 2010-11-29 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Potash Corp of Saskatchewan | POT-T | 146.800 | 14 X gross multiple is the historical value but currently at 17X plus. Didn’t’ like that they wanted to borrow to Buy back shares. | 2010-11-29 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Royal Bank | RY-T | 55.380 | Every bank has been charging into the wealth management business because they can charge ongoing fees. Acquisition of Phillips, Hager & North and move into the US has got them moving in the right direction. He values Cdn banks at around 10X earnings making them fairly valued. | 2010-11-29 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Smith & Nephew PLC | SNN-N | 46.250 | (A Top Pick Dec 29/09. Down 7.58%.) Still a Buy. | 2010-11-29 | ||
| Comment | Transocean Inc. | RIG-N | 68.670 | One of the better drilling companies that got caught with the BP problems in the Gulf of Mexico. Have about $10 cash per share. Insurance costs have gone through the roof because of the spill and they still have litigation costs. If you are making a 1st time Buy, only do half. | 2010-11-29 | ||
| BUY | Unilever PLC | UL-N | 28.410 | Has been hit a little because of their acquisition of Alberta Culver but latest quarterly earnings showed revenue and margin improvement for the first time in a few quarters. Largest consumer product company in India. The acquisition gives them more sustainability from a products standpoint. | 2010-11-29 | ||
| TOP PICK | Telefonica S.A. | TEF-N | 65.960 | Some European assets but the bulk is in Brazil where they just bought the Brazilian wireless assets of Portugal Telecom. Will have a lot of profit growth and dividend growth. | 2010-11-29 | ||
| BUY | Banco Santander SA | STD-N | 9.740 | Anything to do with Spain is going down in value. Looking at the valuation metrics, you are paying 3 to 5 times cash flow, which is unheard of. Earnings are yielding around 5%. More than 50% of their business is outside of Spain. | 2010-11-29 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Yum! Brands | YUM-N | 50.020 | Has about 14% growth in China. Have competition from other Chinese brands. Fairly priced. Good company but not interested in it. | 2010-11-29 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Sigma Aldrich Corp. | SIAL-Q | 63.780 | (A Top Pick Dec 29/09. Up 27.04%.) Still a Buy. | 2010-11-29 | ||
| WAIT | Banco Bilbao Vizcaya | BBVA-N | 10.770 | 50% of revenues are coming from outside of Spain. Although stock price is down 40% (the same as Spanish index) you have to understand it is not where they are domiciled but where they are doing business. Doing very well in Mexico and South America. Wait to see what credit quality will look like among all the banks over the next couple of quarters. | 2010-06-24 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Caterpillar | CAT-N | 63.370 | Will be very cyclical, so take your time and look for a good entry point. | 2010-06-24 | ||
| PARTIAL BUY | Cameco Corporation | CCO-T | 23.180 | Depends on whether commodity prices will be sustainable over the short run. If not, prices will continue to fall. As a long-term investment, big issue uranium and a little bit of copper and gold. For a long-term investment of 5-10 years, there's nothing wrong with this one. | 2010-06-24 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Foment Economico Mexican | FMX-N | 45.480 | (A Top Pick May 8/08. Up 46.62%.) Sold their beer assets so are now left with Coca-Cola bottler and convenience stores, the high margin business. Would consider buying in the low $40's. 1.4% dividend. | 2010-06-24 | ||
| DON'T BUY | General Electric | GE-N | 15.080 | Industrial products division has been a little sluggish but starting to see some long-term improvement. Problem is their capital market side which is no longer an AAA credit. 2.6% dividend. Not a fan. | 2010-06-24 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Schlumberger Ltd. | SLB-N | 57.140 | Has side tracked the British Petroleum (BP-N) situation whereas their rivals Halliburton (HAL-N) and Transocean (RIG-N) are caught in the middle of everything. Trading at 20X earnings, which is too expensive for him in this environment. | 2010-06-24 | ||
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| PAST TOP PICK | Smith & Nephew PLC | SNN-N | 48.230 | (A Top Pick May 8/08. Up 38.71%.) | 2010-06-24 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Teva Pharmaceutical | TEVA-Q | 51.990 | Leading generic drug manufacturer globally. Good growth profile. Valuations in the $40-$50 range would be decent. Growth rate is in the high mid-teens too low $20's. | 2010-06-24 | ||
| TOP PICK | Toromont Industries | TIH-T | 23.470 | Compression of natural gas and Caterpillar (CAT-N) dealerships in Ontario/Quebec. Acquired Enerflex giving them exposure to Asia. Because of the acquisition, dividend is staying at 2.5%. An investment for the next 5-10 years. | 2010-06-24 | ||
| TOP PICK | BHP Billiton Ltd. | BHP-N | 67.980 | The one resource stock that can cover everything such as iron ore, zinc, copper, lead, gold, diamonds etc. Good long-term hold. Have a lot of cash and can be aggressive if the economy turns sour. Dividend of 3.5%. Only Buy half position at this time. | 2010-06-24 | ||
| Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Not buying anything right now and hasn't for 6 months. Has about 10%-20% cash depending on the asset mix of the portfolio. He is looking for a signal of global de-leveraging before buying. Would like to Buy when there is capitulation but hasn't seen it yet. Will watch to see what happens when the Q2 and Q3 earnings coming out in the fall. | 2010-06-24 | ||
| TOP PICK | Telefonica S.A. | TEF-N | 58.390 | (A Top Pick May 8/08. Up 7.27%.) One of the largest telecoms globally. 8.3% dividend yield is expected to go up over the next 5 years. Down 40% year-to-date because it has been tarred and feathered with all the other Spanish names of more than 40% of their revenues are from outside of Europe. Biggest growth is Brazil, their biggest asset on the wireless side. | 2010-06-24 | ||
| DON'T BUY | United States Steel | X-N | 50.280 | Depends if and when the economy recovers and demand is going to be huge. Would be more inclined to look at companies providing the iron ore for the steel manufacturing. Very risky. | 2010-06-24 | ||
| WAIT | Banco Santander SA | STD-N | 10.870 | 50% of revenues are coming from outside of Spain. Although stock price is down 40% (the same as Spanish index) you have to understand it is not where they are domiciled but where they are doing business. Doing very well in Mexico and South America. Wait to see what credit quality will look like among all the banks over the next couple of quarters. | 2010-06-24 | ||
| BUY | Agrium | AGU-T | 68.530 | Because the deal with C. F. Industries didn't go through, they are in much better shape financially leaving a cleaner balance sheet. If there is a selloff in the market, they can look for possible acquisitions without overpaying. | 2010-04-07 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Bank of America | BAC-N | 18.620 | (Market Call Minute.) Still a work in progress. Speculative. | 2010-04-07 | ||
| PARTIAL SELL | CitiGroup | C-N | 4.360 | If they get the TARP payment paid than it is back to business as usual. All depends on what kind of recovery the US economy is going to make. If you own, consider taking some profits. | 2010-04-07 | ||
| SELL | General Electric | GE-N | 18.500 | (Market Call Minute.) Still has the GE Capital situation hanging over them. Have been selling assets to raise cash. | 2010-04-07 | ||
| TOP PICK | Goldcorp Inc | G-T | 40.060 | Lowest cash cost of all seniors at about $350 so with gold where it is, it is all free cash flow to them and will allow them to fund future exploration. Penasquito mine in Mexico is getting started and will give them a lot of flexibility. No debt or political risks. Anywhere in the $30-$35 range is a good price. | 2010-04-07 | ||
| Comment | Luxottica | LUX-N | 26.790 | Dominate eyeglasses/sunglasses sector. Their competition is very fragmented globally. Growth in China and other emerging markets is going to grow over time. Just moved into South America. Stock is a little rich right now. | 2010-04-07 | ||
| HOLD | Manitoba Telecom Services | MBT-T | 32.890 | Gives you a consistent dividend but not a rise in the dividend and the stock price has not been doing very well because there is less growth than its competitors. Management has said they are going to do everything they can to support the dividend over time. | 2010-04-07 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Paychex | PAYX-Q | 30.650 | Makes money on processing pay cheques. They get to bank money overnight or over a weekend prior to remitting payroll taxes. Probably too pricey right now simply because interest rates do not look like they are going to be rising on the Horizon. | 2010-04-07 | ||
| Comment | Suncor Energy Inc | SU-T | 34.590 | Have to be patient with this because of their Petrocan acquisition plus all of the cost overruns in their heavy oil sands projects. Trading at about 6X cash flow, which is a little rich for the seniors. If you can hold it for the next 5 or 10 years, it should be fine. | 2010-04-07 | ||
| Comment | Teva Pharmaceutical | TEVA-Q | 63.510 | Generics continue to get wins in terms of shortened time frames as to pharmaceuticals staying on patents. | 2010-04-07 | ||
| Comment | Telus Corp | T-T | 38.740 | Dividend yield of nearly 5% is looking at little rich right now. Stock has been overbought. | 2010-04-07 | ||
| BUY | Unilever NV | UN-N | 30.800 | New management has gotten very prudent and very strict. Will not raise the dividend until they cut the costs to a degree where they can start paying down some of the debt. Will get pricing pressure in the US and Europe but pretty much have free reign in India. | 2010-04-07 | ||
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| BUY | Verizon Communications | VZ-N | 30.240 | Verizon and AT&T (T-N) performances are very much the same but this one has a much higher wireless exposure. If they ever get AT&T's exclusive contract with Apple broken they would probably perform better. Stock is okay for long-term purchase. | 2010-04-07 | ||
| TOP PICK | Uni-Select Inc | UNS-T | 27.290 | Wholesale auto parts distributor. Price is down because they had a really crappy quarter. Got rid of their heavy-duty wholesale division, which had always been a huge drag on profitability. People tend to hold their cars longer. Good valuation. Clean balance sheet. Good dividend. | 2010-04-07 | ||
| PARTIAL SELL | ICICI Bank Ltd. | IBN-N | 44.520 | A lot of the banks have gotten extremely rich because of coming off huge bottoms. If you own, consider taking some money off the table as inflation is rising in India right now sold the banks will be forced to increase their reserves. | 2010-04-07 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Bell Aliant | BA-T | 25.470 | 11% distribution because they have a lot of tax write-offs they can use. Feels that the distribution will drop drastically when it converts back to a corporation. | 2010-04-07 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Lloyds TSB Group PLC | LYG-N | 3.960 | Would prefer buying a basket, such as an ETF of the undervalued banks rather than cherry picking each one. This one had to do a rights issue last November on a 3 to 1 basis, which diluted the earnings 3 times so learning Zen are going to be growing at a steady clip. | 2010-04-07 | ||
| Comment | Syngenta AG | SYT-N | 52.780 | This is the Swiss seed and agriculture stock. Have struggled because farmers have not been buying as much fertilizer. His choice would be Dupont (DD-N), which gives him more than just agriculture. Has no problem with this one except you will have to be very patient. | 2010-04-07 | ||
| HOLD | McDermott International Inc. | MDR-N | 27.500 | (Market Call Minute.) Planning to split the company into 2 by spinning off the nuclear side. Will keep the engineering for oil and gas. | 2010-04-07 | ||
| TOP PICK | Telefonica S.A. | TEF-SM | 0.010 | (Also trades on the NYST under TEF-N.) Huge player in both Europe and South America. Dividend increase could be from 20%-40% this year, which would put the yield close to 8%. Brazil is going gangbusters in this company have the wireless assets. Also selling Pay TV. Very cheap. | 2010-04-07 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | BHP Billiton Ltd | BHP-AU | 0.010 | (A Top Pick Mar 20/09. Up 38.5%.) Bought it through the Australian Stock exchange with Australian dollars which was 50% lower than the US$ so his gain was about 60%. (Also available on the NYST.) | 2010-04-07 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Sigma Aldrich Corp. | SIAL-Q | 54.830 | (A Top Pick Mar 20/09. Up 52.7% excluding dividends.) Specialty chemical maker in the pharmaceutical/biotech. Have increased the dividend twice since then. | 2010-04-07 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Lindt & Spruengli | LISP-SW | 0.010 | (A Top Pick Mar 20/09. Up 53%.) High-end chocolate/confectionery's. Just increased the dividend by 11%. Stock recently moved higher on expectations on earnings growth in emerging markets, especially India, China and Brazil. | 2010-04-07 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Agrium | AGU-T | 65.810 | Canadian Agribusiness firms are a little pricey right now. They can come down a little more before they are interesting. Has a premium built in because of take-over rumors. | 2009-12-29 | ||
| VAGUE | Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | CM-T | 67.920 | Capital markets have been hot, vs. retail markets. | 2009-12-29 | ||
| SELL | Cemex SA | CX-N | 12.000 | Prior to meltdown, they were on an acquisition binge. They have been selling assets to raise cash. He sold a year ago because of balance sheet impairment. | 2009-12-29 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Encana Corp | ECA-T | 34.260 | Likes oil and gas stocks at no more than 5 times cash flow. ECA is there. Cold weather is helping gas prices right now. He prefers Toromont TIH-T, which is less volatile. | 2009-12-29 | ||
| DON'T BUY | FedEx | FDX-N | 85.170 | PE multiple is way too high. Any time the consumer falls back, Fedex will have a problem. 15 times or less would make it a buy. | 2009-12-29 | ||
| DON'T BUY | General Electric | GE-N | 15.350 | Almost identical to Siemens. He has a problem in that it will take a couple of years to get things going again. Prefers Siemens. | 2009-12-29 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Intel | INTC-Q | 20.590 | It’s a bit on the rich side. It’s had a big run. Doesn’t expect a lot of chips sales to continue. Would prefer some of the other chip stocks. | 2009-12-29 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Manulife Financial | MFC-T | 19.220 | Earnings will be sluggish for the next couple of years because of equity raising recently. Dilution of earnings could keep price within this range. | 2009-12-29 | ||
| SELL | Nokia | NOK-N | 12.920 | Smart phone is being commoditzed. If you are into Apples or Rim, you have to trade. | 2009-12-29 | ||
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| TOP PICK | Novo-Nordisk | NVO-N | 64.560 | Has been more stable than the rest of the pharmaceuticals. Is an insulin producer, which pretty much dominates the market. Diabetic cases will rise 2-4 hundred million over the next 20 years, predominantly because Indians tend to be very susceptible to it. Return on capital is very high – 25-30% range. Very little debt. Dividend increased almost 20% last year. | 2009-12-29 | ||
| HOLD | Precision Drilling | PD-T | 7.680 | (Market Call Minute) | 2009-12-29 | ||
| WEAK BUY | Rogers Communcations (B) | RCI.B-T | 32.630 | Telecoms are getting increased competition. Consumer discretionary demand is starting to come down. Subsidization of smart phones has margins coming down. Bit a time to sell. Buy half a position and wait to see what happens in 6 months. | 2009-12-29 | ||
| HOLD | Royal Bank | RY-T | 56.140 | (Market Call Minute) for all Canadian banks | 2009-12-29 | ||
| TOP PICK | Smith & Nephew PLC | SNN-N | 51.380 | Has the least invasive of all the hip and knee replacements out there. Leaders in wound care management for burn and fire victims. A third business is endoscopy components. People have been putting off getting their hips repaired, but eventually they have to step up to the plate. Recovery time is faster. Stock trading at 9-10 times earnings. They came out with blow out margins but some analysts think this is a one-time thing. | 2009-12-29 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Smith & Nephew PLC | SNN-N | 0.010 | (Top Pick Jan 30, 2009, Up 28%) Hip and Knees. Has just started to wake up. Trading at 9 or 10 times earnings. Cheap in it’s sector. | 2009-12-29 | ||
| SELL | Thomson Reuters Corp | TRI-T | 33.810 | (Market Call Minute) Has done nothing in last year. | 2009-12-29 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Sino-Forest Corp | TRE-T | 19.330 | If lumber pries remain stable it can rise from its current price. Return on capital and operating margins are good. Selling lumber into this environment is tough. You will have to be patient since you are buying a company is that is close to commodity prices. | 2009-12-29 | ||
| SELL | ICICI Bank Ltd. | IBN-N | 37.810 | (Market Call Minute) Come up too far too fast and Indian Gov’t has tried to put more cushions in which will drag earnings. | 2009-12-29 | ||
| N/A | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | He is thinking of an ‘L’ shaped recovery. The market came back too far too fast. Wont re-visit March lows. 0-2% GDP growth, slightly more globally. 10-20% cash. Three areas: 1. Emerging Markets - Brazil, India, China; 2. Commodities - Canada, Mexico, Australia; and 3. Laggards – US, Europe and Japan, where the growth will be slower. | 2009-12-29 | ||
| Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Biggest Green investors: Spain – real estate bubble has burst. Spain has leaders in solar panel manufacturers and some utilities are among largest of the green spaces. German, Denmark, and Spain are leaders for wind and solar power. | 2009-12-29 | ||
| BUY | Telefonica S.A. | TEF-N | 83.990 | (Market Call Minute) Good wireless exposure in Brazil. | 2009-12-29 | ||
| SELL | Bell Aliant | BA-T | 27.950 | (Market Call Minute) Sell because long distance revenues being generated in Maritimes. | 2009-12-29 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | William Hill | WMH-LSE | 0.001 | (Top Pick Jan 30, 2009, Up 16%) Exercised rights that they issued. The rights issue diluted earnings. Management team has proven inept. | 2009-12-29 | ||
| WEAK BUY | iShares Xinhua China 25 ETF | FXI-N | 42.010 | 20% of his revenues come from Asia, but they don’t have to be domiciled in China. Make sure it is no more than 5% of your portfolio. China fell 70% last year. | 2009-12-29 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Diageo PLC | DGE-LN | 0.010 | (Top Pick Jan 30, 2009, Up 20.2) It went up near the end of the term. Drinkers have gone down to lower items, but the drinkers still continue to buy them. | 2009-12-29 | ||
| TOP PICK | Sigma Aldrich Corp. | SIAL-Q | 51.400 | Specialty chemical maker. Has been fairly recession proof. Revenues, Profits and Dividend continue to rise. 55% of revenues are outside of US. Very little debt. Wonderfully stable business because very time a scientist squirts something into a petri dish, stock makes money. Has been building a base for 3-6 months so he thinks there may be some breakout here. It may take a couple of years. | 2009-12-29 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Agrium | AGU-T | 53.940 | Trying to acquire CF Industries, contingent on this company dropping its bid for Viterra (VT-T). Usually with an acquisition stock price weakens because acquisition has to be paid for somehow. Agriculture businesses and fertilizer stocks are very expensive. | 2009-11-06 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (B) | BRK.B-N | 3.000 | Acquiring Burlington Railways. Also announced a 50 for 1 split in order to pay for the acquisition and current shareholders will have to face some kind of dilution because this will be a very expensive acquisition. Not a big fan because of 1) their succession plan and 2) because parts of their business are not doing well. | 2009-11-06 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | Paychex | PAYX-Q | 30.370 | Automated payroll deposit company. Service companies with 15 employees or less in the US plus a little bit of exposure to the German market. Likes them because they are a net cash flow positive firm where they get bank money every 2 weeks for payroll/taxes over the weekend. Current problem is high unemployment and zero interest rates. About 4.5% yield. Wait for a correction before buying. | 2009-11-06 | ||
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| DON'T BUY | Pfizer Inc | PFE-N | 16.960 | The issue here is Lipitor patents coming off in 2010 and they have to fill the product pipeline with something that is going to be a blockbuster. Question that they can use their cash horde effectively to fill the R&D pipeline, get new products to market and get their profits up. (See Top Picks.) | 2009-11-06 |
