STOCKCHASE

12.920

Smart phone is being commoditzed. If you are into Apples or Rim, you have to trade.

2009-12-29

DON'T BUY

Sino-Forest Corp

TRE-T

19.330

If lumber pries remain stable it can rise from its current price. Return on capital and operating margins are good. Selling lumber into this environment is tough. You will have to be patient since you are buying a company is that is close to commodity prices.

2009-12-29

DON'T BUY

Manulife Financial

MFC-T

19.220

Earnings will be sluggish for the next couple of years because of equity raising recently. Dilution of earnings could keep price within this range.

2009-12-29

PAST TOP PICK

Diageo PLC

DGE-LN

0.000

(Top Pick Jan 30, 2009, Up 20.2) It went up near the end of the term. Drinkers have gone down to lower items, but the drinkers still continue to buy them.

2009-12-29

PAST TOP PICK

William Hill

WMH-LSE

0.001

(Top Pick Jan 30, 2009, Up 16%) Exercised rights that they issued. The rights issue diluted earnings. Management team has proven inept.

2009-12-29

SELL

Cemex SA

CX-N

12.000

Prior to meltdown, they were on an acquisition binge. They have been selling assets to raise cash. He sold a year ago because of balance sheet impairment.

2009-12-29

DON'T BUY

iShares Xinhua China 25 ETF

15.350

Almost identical to Siemens. He has a problem in that it will take a couple of years to get things going again. Prefers Siemens.

2009-12-29

DON'T BUY

Agrium

AGU-T

65.810

Canadian Agribusiness firms are a little pricey right now. They can come down a little more before they are interesting. Has a premium built in because of take-over rumors.

2009-12-29

WEAK BUY

Rogers Communcations (B)

RCI.B-T

32.630

Telecoms are getting increased competition. Consumer discretionary demand is starting to come down. Subsidization of smart phones has margins coming down. Bit a time to sell. Buy half a position and wait to see what happens in 6 months.

2009-12-29

WEAK BUY

FXI-N

42.010

20% of his revenues come from Asia, but they don’t have to be domiciled in China. Make sure it is no more than 5% of your portfolio. China fell 70% last year.

2009-12-29

DON'T BUY

Encana Corp

ECA-T

34.260

Likes oil and gas stocks at no more than 5 times cash flow. ECA is there. Cold weather is helping gas prices right now. He prefers Toromont TIH-T, which is less volatile.

2009-12-29

VAGUE

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce

CM-T

67.920

Capital markets have been hot, vs. retail markets.

2009-12-29

TOP PICK

Sigma Aldrich Corp.

SIAL-Q

51.400

Specialty chemical maker. Has been fairly recession proof. Revenues, Profits and Dividend continue to rise. 55% of revenues are outside of US. Very little debt. Wonderfully stable business because very time a scientist squirts something into a petri dish, stock makes money. Has been building a base for 3-6 months so he thinks there may be some breakout here. It may take a couple of years.

2009-12-29

TOP PICK

Novo-Nordisk

NVO-N

64.560

Has been more stable than the rest of the pharmaceuticals. Is an insulin producer, which pretty much dominates the market. Diabetic cases will rise 2-4 hundred million over the next 20 years, predominantly because Indians tend to be very susceptible to it. Return on capital is very high – 25-30% range. Very little debt. Dividend increased almost 20% last year.

2009-12-29

TOP PICK

SNN-N

51.380

Has the least invasive of all the hip and knee replacements out there. Leaders in wound care management for burn and fire victims. A third business is endoscopy components. People have been putting off getting their hips repaired, but eventually they have to step up to the plate. Recovery time is faster. Stock trading at 9-10 times earnings. They came out with blow out margins but some analysts think this is a one-time thing.

2009-12-29

N/A

0.020

He is thinking of an ‘L’ shaped recovery. The market came back too far too fast. Wont re-visit March lows. 0-2% GDP growth, slightly more globally. 10-20% cash. Three areas: 1. Emerging Markets - Brazil, India, China; 2. Commodities - Canada, Mexico, Australia; and 3. Laggards – US, Europe and Japan, where the growth will be slower.

2009-12-29

DON'T BUY

FedEx

FDX-N

85.170

PE multiple is way too high. Any time the consumer falls back, Fedex will have a problem. 15 times or less would make it a buy.

2009-12-29

DON'T BUY

Intel

INTC-Q

20.590

It’s a bit on the rich side. It’s had a big run. Doesn’t expect a lot of chips sales to continue. Would prefer some of the other chip stocks.

2009-12-29

Comment

0.020

Biggest Green investors: Spain – real estate bubble has burst. Spain has leaders in solar panel manufacturers and some utilities are among largest of the green spaces. German, Denmark, and Spain are leaders for wind and solar power.

2009-12-29

PAST TOP PICK

SN-LSE

0.000

(Top Pick Jan 30, 2009, Up 28%) Hip and Knees. Has just started to wake up. Trading at 9 or 10 times earnings. Cheap in it’s sector.

2009-12-29

HOLD

Royal Bank

RY-T

56.140

(Market Call Minute) for all Canadian banks

2009-12-29

SELL

Bell Aliant

BA.UN-T

27.950

(Market Call Minute) Sell because long distance revenues being generated in Maritimes.

2009-12-29

BUY

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (B)

83.990

(Market Call Minute) Good wireless exposure in Brazil.

2009-12-29

HOLD

Precision Drilling Corp.

PD.UN-T

7.680

(Market Call Minute)

2009-12-29

SELL

Thomson Reuters Corp

TRI-T

33.810

(Market Call Minute) Has done nothing in last year.

2009-12-29

SELL

ICICI Bank Ltd.

IBN-N

37.810

(Market Call Minute) Come up too far too fast and Indian Gov’t has tried to put more cushions in which will drag earnings.

2009-12-29

BUY on WEAKNESS

Paychex

PAYX-Q

30.370

Automated payroll deposit company. Service companies with 15 employees or less in the US plus a little bit of exposure to the German market. Likes them because they are a net cash flow positive firm where they get bank money every 2 weeks for payroll/taxes over the weekend. Current problem is high unemployment and zero interest rates. About 4.5% yield. Wait for a correction before buying.

2009-11-06

HOLD

Suncor Energy Inc

SU-T

35.400

One of the high quality stocks in the Canadian oil sector and can be an anchor to anyone's portfolio. Dividend will probably be maintained for the near-term because of the PetroCanada acquisition but as growth comes it will start to rise over time. If unemployment continues to rise and demand continues to fall something will have to give.

2009-11-06

DON'T BUY

BRK.B-N

3.000

Acquiring Burlington Railways. Also announced a 50 for 1 split in order to pay for the acquisition and current shareholders will have to face some kind of dilution because this will be a very expensive acquisition. Not a big fan because of 1) their succession plan and 2) because parts of their business are not doing well.

2009-11-06

DON'T BUY

Agrium

AGU-T

53.940

Trying to acquire CF Industries, contingent on this company dropping its bid for Viterra (VT-T). Usually with an acquisition stock price weakens because acquisition has to be paid for somehow. Agriculture businesses and fertilizer stocks are very expensive.

2009-11-06

DON'T BUY

Blockbuster Inc.

BBI-N

0.860

Movies, DVDs and video game rentals. Too much competition. Doesn't think they have a winning formula to be able to do anything.

2009-11-06

Comment

Research In Motion

RIM-T

63.200

Long-term outlook for smart phones is good because of only 20% penetration. Didn't meet expectations last quarter and Apple (AAPL-Q) is starting to move into others territories. Have to integrate both business and customers and on more than 4 or 5 different platforms, squeezing margins. Trading at 15X earnings, which is more in line with what expectations are for the next couple of years.

2009-11-06

DON'T BUY

Pfizer Inc

PFE-N

16.960

The issue here is Lipitor patents coming off in 2010 and they have to fill the product pipeline with something that is going to be a blockbuster. Question that they can use their cash horde effectively to fill the R&D pipeline, get new products to market and get their profits up. (See Top Picks.)

2009-11-06

TOP PICK

Toromont Industries

TIH-T

26.240

Compression of natural gas and Caterpillar (CAT-N) dealerships in Ontario and Quebec. Trying to acquire Enerflex (EFX.UN-T), which would give them exposure to the Asian markets. Good diversification and good management team. History of increasing dividends for the last 20 years. Buy on weakness.

2009-11-06

TOP PICK

83.400

One of the biggest wireless providers in Brazil. Started paying dividends in 2002 and continues to increase. Brazilian profits were up 50%. With Olympics coming, per capita income rising and the infrastructure spending it should do very well going forward. Buy on weakness.

2009-11-06

TOP PICK

HBP NYMEX Nat'l Gas Bull+

SNN-N

44.790

Manufactures artificial hips and knees as well as bandages for fire victims and endoscopic devices. Revenues have been sluggish. Release their quarterly figures and revenues were flat but profits grew. People are delaying hips/knee surgeries but that is building a potential for down the road. Buy on weakness.

2009-11-06

SELL

HNU-T

10.180

Natural Gas Bull+ ETF. Hates investors to be involved with these.

2009-11-06

TOP PICK

Foment Economico Mexican

FMX-N

31.330

The largest bottler and distributor of Coke products throughout Latin America and South America. Sales and profits were up about 20% in Brazil in the last quarter. They also own a lot of convenience stores throughout Mexico. They are also 50% of the beer market in Mexico. A play on the demographic/economic growth in Latin America.

2009-05-08

TOP PICK

59.890

Got smoked in Spain but in Brazil and the rest of the world they are doing very well. Wireless growth in Latin America is up almost 20%. Dividend yield of 6.72%.

2009-05-08

TOP PICK

SNN-N

35.340

Hip, knee replacements and endoscopic equipment and wound care management. Equipment is less invasive than its peers. Trading at 10X earnings but growing at 15% to 20% so the PEG ratio is in his favour. People are holding back on getting hips replaced but at some point in time they will have to. 2.3% dividend.

2009-05-08

PAST TOP PICK

Shin-Etsu Chemical

4063-JP

0.000

(A Top Pick April 23/08. Down 3.56%.) Specialty chemical maker that makes silicon for semiconductors and PVC piping. Stock was falling but was offset by the plunging Cdn$. Would like a weaker yen before buying more. 2% dividend.

2009-05-08

PAST TOP PICK

Uni-Select Inc

UNS-T

29.000

(A Top Pick April 23/08. Up 35.42%.) Auto parts supplier. Had a turnaround in their heavy-duty division, which have been a huge booster for the past 5 years. A little pricey at 10X earnings.

2009-05-08

PAST TOP PICK

14.750

(A Top Pick April 23/08. Down 47.03%.) Phones/cable companies were working through their inventories so demand fell. Market share fell because they were not selling the high-end phones.

2009-05-08

DON'T BUY

Bombardier Inc (B)

BBD.B-T

4.160

Orders are down on the aerospace side but up on the rail car side. Price to cash flow looks attractive but debt to equity is about 180%. They'll have to muddle through with low margins until aircraft orders pick up again.

2009-05-08

BUY

Encana Corp

ECA-T

65.420

Like all the oils, they are starting to trade around 4X cash flow so this is usually an entry point en masse for oils. Because this is one of the senior producers, they will probably have a bigger following by institutions.

2009-05-08

Comment

0.020

Gold: Short term it could go anywhere but in the long-term it should trend higher because he expects inflation will be starting. He is guessing it will be anywhere between $900 and $1000 in the next 12 months.

2009-05-08

BUY

Barrick Gold

ABX-T

39.130

News that the new mine on the Argentina/Chile border will be coming into production at a cost of about $40 an ounce, which will reduce their overall costs from $405. Huge reserves. With wage and equipment prices coming down, it is becoming more economically viable. Good entry point.

2009-05-08

BUY

Anadarko Petroleum Corp

APC-N

51.960

Trading at 4X next year's cash flow. Operating margins are in line at 24%. Looking under priced.

2009-05-08

Comment

14.530

Looks like the worst is behind them however the financial side is still going to be a distraction. There are other companies that he would rather own.

2009-05-08

BUY

Talisman Energy

TLM-T

16.610

Have been turning itself around very quietly. Trading at next year's price to cash at about 3.8 times which is fairly cheap. Gotten involved with a big find in Kurdistan where the potential could be quite large.

2009-05-08

Comment

Thomson Reuters Corp

TRI-T

35.180

Several factors on whether you buy Canadian (TRI-T) or US ADR (TRIN-Q). 3.7% yield Canadian but 4.2% in the US. If you have a taxable account you are probably better off buying Canadian.

2009-05-08

DON'T BUY

Research In Motion

RIM-T

85.000

Difficulty for them is going to be competition from Apple's products coming down the pipe in North America. Their Storm did not turn out to be a great product but Pearl has done quite well. Trading at a very hefty multiple of around 20X earnings. He prefers Nokia (NOK-N).

2009-05-08

DON'T BUY

Walt Disney

DIS-N

25.460

Has 3 parts. Studio/automation/film, theme parks and television assets. 2 of them are not doing great and the other one is muddling along. Not a big fan of this one because demographics are going to hurt them in the long run.

2009-05-08

DON'T BUY

Tim Hortons

THI-T

28.590

In a trading range of probably $5 plus or minus. Yesterday's results were okay, but not great. He is not a buyer of this one right now.

2009-05-08

DON'T BUY

Biovail Corp.

BVF-T

13.080

Cutting dividends does not help any company. Entire pharmaceutical space is down year-to-date because of patent products rolling off. This is a very tiny player in a big pond. Wouldn't touch this one.

2009-05-08

Comment

Pembina Pipeline Income Trust

0.020

(Market Call Minute.) US banks? If you have to buy them, you have to be focused on the ones that have staying power and growth such as M & T Bank (MTB-N), Wells Fargo (WFC-N) and US Bank Corp (?).

2009-05-08

WEAK BUY

PIF.UN-T

14.000

(Market Call Minute.) Okay for a long-term investment because the pipelines do give you stability but don't expect a lot of growth.

2009-05-08

BUY

Royal Dutch Shell PLC (A)

RDS.A-N

49.830

(Market Call Minute.) He is currently buying this one.

2009-05-08

Comment

Caterpillar

CAT-N

39.640

(Market Call Minute.) If you own, he would probably buy more but he prefers Toromont (TIH-T) as a longer-term play.

2009-05-08

Comment

ArcelorMittal

MT-N

28.700

(Market Call Minute.) In the steel sector he would probably favour Nucor (NUE-N) because of the lower debt levels..

2009-05-08

HOLD

Methanex Corp

MX-T

14.460

(Market Call Minute.) They still have to deal with declining margins in their businesses overseas.

2009-05-08

DON'T BUY

Newalta Income Fund

NAL-T

4.550

(Market Call Minute.) In the wrong place at the wrong time.

2009-05-08

PAST TOP PICK

Brookfield Asset Management (A)

BAM.A-T

15.930

(A Top Pick March 17/08. Down 36.1%.) Preferred “M”s. Par value of $25 and a coupon of 4.75%. Has been buying more because of a pre-tax return of 13.25% and Government’s are 2.7%.

2009-03-20

TOP PICK

BHP Billiton Ltd

BHP-AU

0.000

(Australian exchange but also listed in New York.) Wanted a one-stop shop for all metals/minerals that he could get his hands on. Clean balance sheet. Also wanted Australian$ exposure as it had been down against US/Canadian currency. Yield of about 3.5% but could be as high a 5.5%. Long-term hold.

2009-03-20

TOP PICK

Sigma Aldrich Corp.

SIAL-Q

35.910

Specialty chemical maker. When scientists squirt a solution into a test tube or petri dish, this company makes money. Grow cash flow very well. Dividend just went up about 11%.

2009-03-20

TOP PICK

Lindt & Spruengli

LISP-SW

0.000

(Swiss exchange.) Going into a recession, banks and consumer discretionary go down the most but usually are the first to move again. This is the premier chocolatier globally. Just started to expand outside of Europe in the last 5-10 years. Very little debt. Operating margins are so high they create a tremendous amount of cash flow. Dividends went up 10%. Have long-term contracts for cocoa.

2009-03-20

PAST TOP PICK

Babcock & Brown Infrastructure

BBI-AU

0.001

(A Top Pick March 17/08. Down 95.3%.) As an infrastructure play, they were into ports and utilities. Company was doing well but the debt leverage was too high. When the credit markets closed their access to capital froze up. Sold his holdings when it looked like the parent company was going into bankruptcy.

2009-03-20

PAST TOP PICK

59.340

(A Top Pick March 17/08. Down 25.5%.) Growth in Brazil has been fantastic and he is still buying.

2009-03-20

HOLD

HSBC Holdings P L C

HBC-N

26.230

If you want something with Asian components but much better credit quality in the banking system, he would choose Standard Chartered Bank (STAN-LSE) on the London exchange. (Also listed in New York but he prefers British £, which is down 50% against US$ and 25% against the Cdn$.)

2009-03-20

Comment

0.020

Mark to Market Explanation: For opaque off balance sheet instruments. For something not readily traded because it is not going through a regulated trading firm/agency, companies are left to their own design, accounting wise, as to how they want to price these.

2009-03-20

BUY

Kingsway Financial Services

11.110

Still like. Also looked at Research in Motion (RIM-T) and Apple (AAPL-Q) and all 3 have a lot of cash on the books. RIM and Nokia are trading around 11 or 12X earnings and have roughly $2-$3 per share in cash. Thinks of this one as a utility. Globally people are not getting landlines anymore but will own cell phones. This one is very cheap. Buy for the long-term.

2009-03-20

SELL

KFS-T

2.100

Every quarterly earnings report he has seen in the last 2 years continually gets worse. Claims in their Lincoln Financial are greater than the premiums.

2009-03-20

Comment

Luxottica

LUX-N

13.930

People still need glasses, usually every 2 years. Sales were down and margins have declined. Suspended the dividend because they want to pay down some debt from their Oakley acquisition. Oakley is going great guns, as is the lower end of their business. As the economy turns around, they will start to improve.

2009-03-20

DON'T BUY

0.020

Canadian banks will still face some hard times over the next year or so because they haven't slowed down their loan loss provisions. Jump in the first quarter was pretty nasty and that will continue for the next quarter or two. Valuations still look pretty high compared to the rest of the world.

2009-03-20

Comment

iShares Xinhua China 25 ETF

0.020

Short Sales: Basically buying shares with borrowed stock. If a stock is $20 and you think it is going down to $10, you borrow stock and then sell it. If it goes down to $10 you buy back and the difference is your profit.

2009-03-20

Comment

FXI-N

26.418

25 of China's largest and liquid companies. The problem is that speculation is rampant in the Chinese market. Also, a lot of these companies’ profits came from investing in the Chinese stock market. You have to think about these risks. Consider spreading it out to include Brazil and India in an ETF, which will give you a little less risk.

2009-03-20

BUY

Migao Corp.

MGO-T

6.520

Not a fertilizer producer but a refiner. Suffered a little more than the producers. Clean balance sheet. As a speculative play, he has no problem with it.

2009-03-20

SELL

9.540

(Market Call Minute.) Wouldn't own this one right now.

2009-03-20

DON'T BUY

CitiGroup

C-N

2.620

(Market Call Minute.) Wouldn't touch it.

2009-03-20

BUY

Suncor Energy Inc

SU-T

30.900

(Market Call Minute.) If you want a large integrated oil, this is the time to do it.

2009-03-20

BUY

Viterra Inc

VT-T

8.750

(Market Call Minute.) Commodity prices are probably going to start going up very slowly. Probably a decent investment right here.

2009-03-20

DON'T BUY

Teck Resources Ltd. (B)

TCK.B-T

5.880

(Market Call Minute.) Wouldn't touch it right now. Would rather own the bonds as opposed to the debt if he had a choice.

2009-03-20

DON'T BUY

Cascades Inc

CAS-T

1.980

(Market Call Minute.) Paper and forest products are tough business to be in.

2009-03-20

HOLD

Manulife Financial

MFC-T

14.040

(Market Call Minute.) Prefers Power Financial (PWF-T) as the yield is much higher.

2009-03-20

DON'T BUY

Oilexco Inc

OIL-X

0.145

Got caught at a time when oil prices were falling and they were trying to expand their asset base. Don't expect any miracles.

2009-03-20

BUY

Encana Corp

ECA-T

51.350

Doesn't see any problems with buying oil at this time. Commodity stocks have a much better valuation now than they did a year ago. This is a good start. If you are building a larger portfolio, you may want to have 2, 3 in the energy sector. 3.86% dividend yield.

2009-03-20

DON'T BUY

Bombardier Inc (B)

BBD.B-T

3.800

Infrastructure for trains is great but you have to drill down to the margins, which are very slim for trains. This is mostly a North American story as far as trains are concerned. Regarding planes, anyone that is buying can always back away.

2009-01-30

SELL

Pfizer Inc

PFE-N

14.580

Made a huge bet with their acquisition of Wyeth and the patents are running off. If it doesn't work out they are going to have some very difficult times.

2009-01-30

DON'T BUY

12.130

Doesn't think management has run the business very well. Should have spun off the industrial and medical device business away from GE Capital. Will be difficult for them to get out from under GE Capital’s umbrella and this could affect their dividend.

2009-01-30

HOLD

12.270

Profits were down 68% because consumers are moving down from high-end phones to cheaper ones. Still have 38% market share. Expects Motorola will exit completely leaving this company more room to grow. €8 billion in cash and no debt. Best distribution and production systems. Europe, Asia, Africa and India are all Nokia. If it dropped to $10 a share with a yield of 5%, it would be a Buy.

2009-01-30

DON'T BUY

CitiGroup

C-N

3.550

Dividend cuts have happened twice already, which shows that management really doesn't know what the disease is within the firm. Would avoid US banks entirely until there is some visibility.

2009-01-30

HOLD

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya

BBVA-N

9.290

Actually made money in the last quarter. They were up $500 million US although they did take a hit on the Madoff situation, which caused a charge off of $300 million. Half their business is in Spain and the rest in Latin America. Although Latin America grew .5% last year is starting to slow. Dividends were reduced.

2009-01-30

DON'T BUY

Valero Energy Corp

VLO-N

24.120

Started to close some capacity at some of their refineries because the crack spreads have not been favourable. This is why the stock price has come down. Best in class as far as refineries are concerned but this is not the right time.

2009-01-30

DON'T BUY

Cemex SA

CX-N

7.790

Sold this a couple of months ago because they had refinancing problems. Their cost of capital right now is greater than 15%. Their markets are in US, Spain and Britain and are not doing very well in the housing markets.

2009-01-30

HOLD

Unilever PLC

UL-N

21.920

Likes this one and will keep it.

2009-01-30

TOP PICK