| DON'T BUY | | Brookfield Properties | BPO-T | 33.740 | Stock has done well and the assets have done well, with lower interest rates primarily driving the value with occupancies relatively benign. Sees the whole group in a peak valuation and would stay clear. He has no real estate holdings. | 2005-08-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Alimentation Couche-Tard (B) | ATD.B-T | 21.330 | Has had a great run, primarily on the US acquisition. Last numbers were pretty good. Margins were a little lower than expected on the gasoline business. Primarily an acquisition story. They've got to a size now where they need a meaningful acquisition, but there doesn't appear to be a target out there. Trades at 18 X earnings which is a little rich on an operating basis. | 2005-08-24 | |
| TOP PICK | | Sprint Nextel | S-N | 25.960 | Recent symbol resulting from Sprint acquiring Nextel. Has a small local exchange which will be spun out making it 100% pure wireless. Attractive valuation. Rising free cash flows. | 2005-08-24 | |
| BUY | | Great West Lifeco | GWO-T | 29.050 | A good operator. A long history of consolidating history. Increasing profitability. | 2005-08-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Bristol Myers Squibb | BMY-N | 24.260 | In the major pharmaceutical companies you see low multiple stocks yielding 4/5% and it may look like a good bet. Use caution as it is a risky bet. Revenues over the last couple of years have been under pressure. On this one, about 3/4 of their earnings is being paid out in dividends. | 2005-08-24 | |
| BUY | | Bank of America | BAC-N | 42.910 | The outlook is high single digit earnings growth over the cycle with nice dividends. Has been impacted because of the integration of their credit card acquisition and people are worried about it. Approaching 5% yield which is very attractive. This is his 1st choice with Citigroup (C-N) being his second. | 2005-08-24 | |
| BUY | | CitiGroup | C-N | 43.050 | The outlook is high single digit earnings growth over the cycle with nice dividends. 1st choice would be Bank of America (BAC-N) with Citigroup being second. | 2005-08-24 | |
| TOP PICK | | Coventry Health Care Inc | CVH-N | 75.910 | A mid size health insurance company and it's all about cost containment. Premiums should be growing faster than costs. Have been able to react when costs have been rising. Trades around 14 X's and growing about the same pace. Had pulled back recently due to an acquisition they had done. | 2005-08-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Ford Motor | F-N | 9.920 | Doesn't know what to make on the big auto companies. If unions roll back on some of their demands at General Motors (GM-N) you could see the same thing happening at this company. The industry is under siege. They're losing shares to the Japanese all the time. | 2005-08-24 | |
| HOLD | | Power Corp | POW-T | 32.000 | Has done very well over the last few years. Great operator. Great asset. | 2005-08-24 | |
| TOP PICK | | Canadian Tire Corporation Ltd. (A) | CTC.A-T | 60.800 | Doing a great job of reformatting their stores in what they call a 20/20 concept which is basically getting more square footage. Same store sales of 3% to 4%. Has done a good job in the financial services area. Thinks they can grow earnings 12/15% over the next 5 years. | 2005-08-24 | |
| SELL | | Loblaws | L-T | 69.610 | A great company and has been a great performer. The most recent quarters has seen some margin pressures. Stronger competition. | 2005-08-24 | |
| WEAK BUY | | Nortel | NT-T | 3.710 | At this point it looks attractive. Could see it at $5 12 months out. Highly volatile industry. | 2005-08-24 | |
| WAIT | | Canadian Natural Rsrcs | CNQ-T | 48.370 | A great company with a great asset. Long track record of adding value. In the very short term, would be surprised if it moved significantly up from this point unless there was a spike in oil prices. The 1st phase of Horizon, which comes on about 3 years from now, much of that is discounted in the $40 range. | 2005-07-20 | |
| BUY | | Target Corp | TGT-N | 59.980 | The last comp. was about 9%. A step above Wal-Mart in terms of quality. Kept their costs low and opened new stores. Feels it has legs. | 2005-07-20 | |
| TOP PICK | | Home Depot | HD-N | 43.950 | Over the long term, this can continue to grow. Just symptomatic of what's going on in the market place, people putting a lot more money into their homes. Continues to execute. Raising the average ticket price. Getting more into the installation. Trying to get closer to contractors. | 2005-07-20 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Wyeth | WYE-N | 46.280 | All the big pharma companies are taking out a lot of costs. The problem is the pipeline is pretty lean, visability is lean. Maybe a little bit of a short term trade up to reward them for the reduced cost structure. Not significant. | 2005-07-20 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Laurentian Bank | LB-T | 26.950 | Looks cheap and a little bit tempting but you have to know there's a union in there. This will deter any merger/acquisition activity. Hasn't performed in line with any of the other banks. | 2005-07-20 | |
| TOP PICK | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 26.460 | (Was a Top Pick in Jan26/05. Up 12%.) Its principal business's are Expedia (online travel), Home Shopping Network, Lending Tree, etc. Expedia has now been spun off. They will be reporting earnings on August 2nd at which time they will be split and will be trading on its own. Combined value will be about $32. | 2005-07-20 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Marsh & McLennan | MMC-N | 29.820 | Has a hard time understanding exactly what's in it or what the new model will look like. Was extremely profitable. It threw off cash. Had a high ROE. There were things going on that increased the profitability. Would stand back on this one. | 2005-07-20 | |
| SELL | | Finning Int | FTT-T | 38.750 | This is a play on the oil sands. They have the CAT dealership in western Canada, England and in S. America. At this point, when they do sell new equipment, the margin is very low. Where they make their money is on the service side. Looks fully valued. | 2005-07-20 | |
| HOLD | | TSX Group | X-T | 39.850 | The closest thing you are going to come to a toll booth. Anyone wanting to come through public listings on the Canadian market has to go through here. A bit volatile. As the markets go, the earnings go. Return on capital is extremely high as it requires virtually no capital in. The primary driver lately has been all the trusts. Trades at a hefty valuation. | 2005-07-20 | |
| TOP PICK | | Jean Coutu Group (PJC) (A) | PJC.A-T | 19.200 | Thinks there's a huge opportunity. Over the next 3/5 years the stock could double. Will have a lot of work to do on the Ekkard stores they acquired. Already have atores in New England states and will take that model and move it through the Ekkard stores. Attractive valuation. | 2005-07-20 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Coca-Cola Company | KO-N | 43.330 | Both Coca-Cola (KO-N) and Pepsi (PEP-N) are trading roughly at the same valuation. Coke has a lot of work to do. Pepsi has better momentum. A big part of their business is the snack food business. On the beverage side they have a better assortment of sports drinks and water franchise. Would Buy Pepsi over Coke at this point. | 2005-07-20 | |
| BUY | | Pepsi | PEP-N | 54.600 | Both Coca-Cola (KO-N) and Pepsi (PEP-N) are trading roughly at the same valuation. Coke has a lot of work to do. Pepsi has better momentum. A big part of their business is the snack food business. On the beverage side they have a better assortment of sports drinks and water franchise. Would Buy Pepsi over Coke at this point. | 2005-07-20 | |
| HOLD | | Bank of Nova Scotia | BNS-T | 41.630 | A great low cost operator. Have some great assets in S. America with some growth. Valuation is reasonable. | 2005-07-20 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Pfizer Inc | PFE-N | 27.060 | They beat the numbers today. Numbers are pretty low. They are taking costs out. The problems with these stocks, which are all innovation dependent, is essentially depletion through generics. | 2005-07-20 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Colgate Palmolive | CL-N | 49.610 | On a short term basis, would prefer Procter and Gamble (PG-N). Earnings have been coming down on Colgate. This year earnings will grow about 8/9% and probably better next year. | 2005-06-02 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Costco Wholesale | COST-Q | 46.620 | They continue to take market share. Have expanded their product line to take share, but some of the product is lower margin which has impacted their earnings. The whole discount space is being impacted by the rising gas prices. | 2005-06-02 | |
| TOP PICK | | Time Warner Inc | TWX-N | 17.260 | In tough markets, focusing on companies that have strong enduring assets producing strong cash flow. Sales of about $44 billion and about $8 billion in cash flow. Good TV assets, cable network, movie production, etc. Their AOL has 20 million users which creates $8 billion of business and has $2 billion of cash flow. In decline, but they are trying to migrate to an advertising portal. | 2005-06-02 | |
| BUY | | Shoppers Drug Mart Corp | SC-T | 40.460 | Has a premium valuation. Have done a fabulous job. Will continue to grow, but a little pricey. May go down before it goes up. | 2005-06-02 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Certicom | CIC-T | 5.800 | An encryption company. Have signed a US defense contactor where they get a royalty. No visibility as to where/when these deals are going to be consumated so difficult to know what to pay for it. | 2005-06-02 | |
| TOP PICK | | Rogers Communcations (B) | RCI.B-T | 38.900 | One of the best growth companies in the Canadian equity market. Has a unique combination of cable and wireless assets. Knocking the ball out of the park. | 2005-06-02 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Tundra Semiconductor | TUN-T | 13.000 | Not one of his favourites. Made some acquisitions in the last couple of years and driven their top line and the profitability, but there has been so many difficulties in the semi-conductor stock performance. Still too early to be in this sector. | 2005-06-02 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Sun Microsystems | JAVA-Q | 3.790 | Still scratching his head over what Sun will do with their acquisition of Storage Tech. Loaded with cash, but that's about the only thing they have going for them. | 2005-06-02 | |
| TOP PICK | | Biomet Inc | BMET-Q | 38.220 | Has $2 billion in sales. Knee and hip business. Likes this business. Great demographics with an older population. Wonderful cash flow earnings growth. Limited competition so reasonably stable. | 2005-06-02 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Coca-Cola Company | KO-N | 44.780 | Great brand internationally. However, growth is almost nonexistant. Missed on the power drinks, water, etc. People are not drinking as many soft drinks as before. Would buy Pepsi (PEP-N) instead. | 2005-06-02 | |
| BUY | | Nortel | NT-T | 3.330 | Over the next 12/16 months you'll see the stock up higher than it is today. Has to be the most hated stock on Bay Street. Have a strong product portfolio on the wireless side and voice over IP. Accounting issues will be cleaned up. They'll be no debt net in the 2nd half. Trades at about 1.1/1.2 X sales. | 2005-03-29 | |
| TOP PICK | | Home Depot | HD-N | 37.690 | Stock has been weak. As rates have been rising, people are worried about a housing slowdown. Their volumes have not been directly with new home sales, but with transactions. Good management. Churns out roughly $3 billion in cash flow. Trades at 14 X earnings. Sees it growing at 10% over the next couple of years. | 2005-03-29 | |
| BUY | | Apple | AAPL-Q | 41.750 | The key is Apple software and the functionality driving it. Feels there is upside in market share of PC's and laptops. They have roughly 1% and feels it can be driven higher. | 2005-03-29 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Bombardier Inc (B) | BBD.B-T | 2.660 | Would stay away from this stock. Doesn't like the industry. Too much capacity. | 2005-03-29 | |
| DON'T BUY | | eBay Inc | EBAY-Q | 36.100 | Wonderful business model. A fantastic business in terms of cash generation and a market that continues to grow. Market cap in the $45 billion range there's a lot of good news still in there. Expensive. Would prefer it at about half the price. | 2005-03-29 | |
| TOP PICK | | Biomet Inc | BMET-Q | 38.760 | Primary business is the hip/knee replacements. What has generated a product cycle recently is that they can do hips less invasively with only small incisions and knees can be replaced. Stock has been coming off recently. Trades around 19 X earnings. Top line growth is 15% and earnings closer to 20%. | 2005-03-29 | |
| DON'T BUY | | 724 Solutions | SVN-T | 16.000 | Has had a tremendous run. Made some acquisitions. New management team. Starting to get some traction on some products. Doesn't have faith that the business model is sustainable. Software is in the telecom space. It's a niche application. | 2005-03-29 | |
| DON'T BUY | | 724 Solutions | SVN-T | 16.000 | Has had a tremendous run. Made some acquisitions. New management team. Starting to get some traction on some products. Doesn't have faith that the business model is sustainable. Software is in the telecom space. It's a niche application. | 2005-03-29 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Angiotech Pharmaceuticals | ANP-T | 17.640 | Boston Scientific (BSX-N) had the majority share in the business, they are a supplier, so why is it weak. Boston is just as weak. The problem with the pharma sector is investors never look at what it is today but what is the marginal change tomorrow, such as competition with a better product. | 2005-03-29 | |
| TOP PICK | | UnitedHealth Group Inc | UNH-N | 93.100 | US health care spending is 14% of GDP. This one is on the insurance side which is cost containment. Have done a terrific job of acquiring, rolling up, managing the network of physicians, keeping cost control, long record of accruing earnings. Valuation is about 16 X earnings. There are plenty of opportunities to consolidate the industry. | 2005-03-29 | |
| SELL | | Patheon | PTI-T | 10.120 | Would sell into this strength. An extremely tough business. It's characterized by rapid turnover of products, capital intensive and very fleeting profitability. Fully valued. Legal issues with management that has to be worked through. | 2005-01-26 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Google | GOOG-Q | 189.240 | Has a lot of growth. Priced for perfection. Too rich for him. | 2005-01-26 | |
| TOP PICK | | Time Warner Inc | TWX-N | 18.150 | Have an excellent collection of assets such as cable, TV production, film, AOL and great print assets. Valuation is very attractive. 9.6 X EBITDA. | 2005-01-26 | |
| HOLD | | Exfo Electro-Optical Engineering | EXF-T | 5.860 | Cheap. Market hasn't rebounded yet, but expects it to over the next couple of years. | 2005-01-26 | |
| HOLD | | MDS Inc | MDS-T | 15.680 | Very interesting at this level. Break up value would be towards $19. Management has been questionable in terms of materializing value for shareholders. Has been a chronic underperformer on an operating basis and stock. Could be a trust. | 2005-01-26 | |
| WEAK BUY | | Biovail Corp. | BVF-T | 19.710 | Looks cheap. Starting to generate cash. So many issues with this company regarding governance, management and accounting. Welbutrin has been a big money spinner for them, but it will be coming off patent, so competition will increase. This is already in the stock. Could trade higher. High risk and volatile. | 2005-01-26 | |
| TOP PICK | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 23.620 | It's principle asset is Expedia along with hotel.com. They are spinning out the travel portion as a stand alone company. Feels that business is worth $15 a share. The remainder of the assets is worth $10. There's $5 of net cash, so the company's worth $30. | 2005-01-26 | |
| SELL | | Magna Int'l. (A) | MG.A-T | 94.300 | Business seems to be reasonably good, but the raw material prices have been rising, there is cost pressure on margins from the big 3, big 3 are losing market share to the Japanese. Sees modest growth. | 2005-01-26 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | | Toronto Dominion | TD-T | 49.250 | Management team is the best in the business. They have a defined strategy of growth for the US. Short term will be difficult as valuations of financials in the US are at a premium so it will be hard to do accretive acquisitions. Longer term there will be some attractive assets come up. Can grow around 10%. Wait for a pull back. | 2005-01-26 | |
| TOP PICK | | Telus Corp | T-T | 36.510 | Really likes the wireless business. Very strong growth. Executing well. A big free cash flow generator. They're buying in debt, de-levering the company so you are getting the added multiple expansion because of the de-levering. Can grow 12%. | 2005-01-26 | |
| WAIT | | Sierra Wireless | SW-T | 17.800 | Just reported and the earnings were not very good. Thinking about selling it, but thinks it may be temporary. There is inventory in the channel, so not re-ordering to the extent they were. Losing a little bit of market share to a competitor. Valuation is very attractive. | 2005-01-26 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Leitch Tech | LTV-T | 8.250 | Management has done a good job of cutting costs to keep the cost structure in line. Now they've got to fill the products they want. Most people look to them for an HD play. Long term, at this price, you'll make money, but in the short term, don't count on earnings turning up rapidly. Still a lot of work to do. Fairly valued. | 2005-01-26 | |
| HOLD | | Transcontinental Inc. (A) | TCL.A-T | 24.500 | A great operator. Has been able to do acquisitions in a relatively flat, lower growth environment. Has value. | 2004-11-09 | |
| TOP PICK | | Axcan Pharmaceuticals | AXP-T | 19.500 | Last news was that R&D spending would be higher than the street anticipated. Launching a product that could be a $200 million product. | 2004-11-09 | |
| BUY | | Power Financial Corp | PWF-T | 30.300 | A great company. Has a history of making accretive acquisitions. Dividends. Continues to add value. A buy and hold. | 2004-11-09 | |
| DON'T BUY | | I Max | IMX-T | 8.600 | There has always been speculation that one of the big media firms would take them out. The business is capital intensive and very lumpy. Fundamentally not a great business. | 2004-11-09 | |
| TOP PICK | | Forest Laboratories | FRX-N | 43.510 | Stock price has been cut in half since March/04 because of their depression drug which is coming off patent. Creating their own generic drug. Great company. Juggernaut sales force. Has about $4 of cash. Has a product ramp in alzheimers. | 2004-11-09 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Brascan Corporation | BAM.LV.A-T | 41.670 | Has done a great job of restructuring. Has been selling off assets which is good. Real estate market is very sensitive to interest rates, so could have problems. | 2004-11-09 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Thomson Reuters Corp | TRI-T | 42.460 | Have some great assets. Lots of cash. To make accretive acquisitions they have to pay significant $'s. | 2004-11-09 | |
| WEAK BUY | | BCE Inc. | BCE-T | 27.690 | Pays a hefty dividend. Has quite a collection of assets and is worth more than what the stock trades at. Very little growth. | 2004-11-09 | |
| TOP PICK | | QLT Inc | QLT-T | 19.180 | Their Visudine product is a leader with the highest market share in the last few months. Their prostate cancer product will be significant. Attractive valuation. Has cash. | 2004-11-09 | |
| SELL | | Patheon | PTI-T | 8.600 | OSC is conducting a probe re insider trading. Really haven't delivered on their promises. A very difficult business. Capital intensive. | 2004-11-09 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Marsh & McLennan | MMC-N | 26.800 | Is in difficulty. Don't know what the underlying business is going to transform to. Also has a credibility issue. | 2004-11-09 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Marsh & McLennan | MMC-N | 27.440 | Is in difficulty. Don't know what the underlying business is going to transform to. Also has a credibility issue. | 2004-11-09 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Biovail Corp. | BVF-T | 20.210 | It is a relatively expensive stock. In general, this stock is not recommanded because this stock has been down for last 6 months. | 2004-08-26 | |
| TOP PICK | | Motorola | MOT-N | 16.530 | This has all the ingridients that company needs. They are the leader in wireless. They have 35 new products this year. The company's strategy is to go up the market and its margin is impressive. Biggest risk is Samsung, which is a big threat. | 2004-08-26 | |
| BUY | | Coolbrands (A) Sold to Nestle | COB.A-T | 9.850 | The company does not own its brand. They have to prove to the market that they can grow the business again. | 2004-08-26 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Intel | INTC-Q | 22.100 | This stock may go lower than what it is now. It seems to slow down here. | 2004-08-26 | |
| TOP PICK | | Jean Coutu Group (PJC) (A) | PJC.A-T | 16.600 | This is a drug store chain. This is a relatively low risk stock. They have been in U.S. and they know the U.S. market. | 2004-08-26 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Sierra Wireless | SW-T | 30.450 | Do not have much confidence in the stocks. Seems to hold its 30 dollar level, which is too expensive for this stock. | 2004-08-26 | |
| BUY | | Applied Materials | AMAT-Q | 16.320 | They are very difficult stocks. Buy these stocks when they do not make any money and sell them when they start making money. | 2004-08-26 | |
| TOP PICK | | Circuit City Stores | CC-N | 12.870 | They are the #2 consumer electronics of U.S.. There are new products coming out. It might be risky because of competitions from Best Buy which is the #1. | 2004-08-26 | |
| DON'T BUY | | CAE Inc | CAE-T | 5.540 | It is a cheap stock. It is a difficult industry. It does not seem to grow. | 2004-08-26 | |
| WEAK BUY | | QLT Inc | QLT-T | 21.360 | Would buy the stocks. They would recommand people to look at this stock. However, this stock has been going up and down. | 2004-08-26 | |
| BUY | | Coolbrands (A) Sold to Nestle | COB.A-T | 19.150 | Just reported and the revenue growth was below expectation. Butterfat is rising and is one of the main inputs. There is a fair short position on the stock. Difficult to value the company. Good entry point. | 2004-07-22 | |
| TOP PICK | | Circuit City Stores | CC-N | 13.550 | #2 specialty retailer in consumer electronics. In a product cycle. Increasing their stores square footage. Good management. About $5 cash per share. | 2004-07-22 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | | TSX Group | X-T | 47.940 | A tremendous franchise. A cash machine. Can be volatile. | 2004-07-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Bombardier Inc (B) | BBD.B-T | 3.490 | In the past, have put up earnings, but never produced any cash. Economics of this business are extremely poor. | 2004-07-22 | |
| TOP PICK | | Jean Coutu Group (PJC) (A) | PJC.A-T | 18.000 | Has significant upside. Have a good understanding of their competitors in the US. Should be able to integrate the Eckard chain well. | 2004-07-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Mitec Telecom | MTM-T | 1.680 | Really a derivitive of Nortel. Would prefer Nortel, Errikson or Quacom. | 2004-07-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Zarlink | ZL-T | 4.740 | Have missed on promises. Recent quarter was less than stellar. A cheap stock but they just cannot close deals. Would prefer others. | 2004-07-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | | GMP Capital Corp | GMP-T | 15.750 | IPO'd at too high a value, the market took it higher and there has now been a market correction. | 2004-07-22 | |
| TOP PICK | | Motorola | MOT-N | 15.610 | Just over 1 X sales. Good products. Has put up great quarters. Lots of cash. A lot of leverage to wireless. | 2004-07-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Power Financial Corp | PWF-T | 28.450 | Expensive in their group. Would prefer some of the banks that have been beaten down a bit like Royal Bank. | 2004-07-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Power Corp | POW-T | 27.710 | Expensive in their group. Would prefer some of the banks that have been beaten down a bit like Royal Bank. | 2004-07-22 | |
| BUY | | QLT Inc | QLT-T | 23.150 | Has dropped after the acquisition. Real cheap now. | 2004-07-22 | |
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