| TOP PICK | | Dundee Corp. (A) | DC.A-T | 12.850 | One of the leading Canadian asset managers. Have 3 primary assets, Dundee Wealth, significant mining assets and a large portfolio of Western Canadian real estate. Trades at a dramatic discount to its NAV. | 2008-06-25 | |
| TOP SHORT | | iShares Russell 2000 E.T.F. | IWM-N | 71.500 | Very cautious on the economic outlook in the US, generally the equity markets in Canada and the US. Housing crisis is not yet over and there will be continued de-leveraging across the financial system, which will have a major impact on consumer spending. Will probably maintain this short position for the next 6 months. | 2008-06-25 | |
| TOP PICK | | Pet Valu Canada Inc. | PVC-T | 11.570 | One of the largest, highest quality pet food retailers in Canada. Own 341 locations, predominantly in Ontario. About 55% are franchised. Have moved from a lower and pet food model into private label nutritional pet food. Non-cyclical. Trades at only 8X forward earnings and about 4.7X EBITDA. | 2008-06-25 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Glacier Ventures International Corp. | GVC-T | 3.850 | (A Top Pick Feb 27/08. Down 3.8%. BNN misquoted as a 30% gain.) Recently suffered from the malaise in the newspaper industry. The unique thing about this one is that it is mostly exposed to Western Canadian publications and to local community advertising. Generates a significant amount of new cash flow. | 2008-06-25 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Arbor Memorial Services Inc. | ABO.B-T | 26.980 | (A Top Pick Feb 27/08. Down 15.7%. BNN misquoted as an 8% gain.) One of the leading funeral/cemetery businesses in Canada. Will grow their earnings this year over last year. Very solid industry over the long-term. Not economically sensitive. | 2008-06-25 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Fairfax Financial | FFH-T | 254.000 | (A Top Pick Feb 27/08. Down 18.6%. BNN misquoted as a 10 %gain.) High quality property/casualty insurance company. Trading below BV per share. | 2008-06-25 | |
| BUY | | Silver Wheaton | SLW-T | 13.020 | Very innovative structure. Buys silver royalties off of other companies that have silver as a by-product. Interesting way to play sober. No direct mine risks. Stock price will be dependent on the price of silver. He is bullish on silver. | 2008-06-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Garda World Security Corp. | GW-T | 16.150 | Security business. A little bit cautious on this one. Company has been successful in growing aggressively, primarily by acquisition. Levered up the balance sheet to grow the business and he is very cautious on businesses with high debt to EBITDA. | 2008-06-25 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | | Thomson Reuters Corp | TRI-T | 34.200 | Information services company. Acquired Reuters, which is directly tied to the financial industry. Have been some concerns about the headwinds they are facing. Overall he very much likes the company. Synergies will be realized over the next few years. 13X forward earnings is starting to look interesting. Would like to see it under $30. | 2008-06-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Viterra Inc | VT-T | 14.240 | A way to get into the agricultural space. Solid business and great free cash flow generator. Grain shipments to Asia have been strong. Some acquisition opportunities going forward. A little expensive. | 2008-06-25 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | | Great Canadian Gaming Corp | GC-T | 9.000 | Likes the underlying fundamentals of the gaming industry, particularly the local gaming market as opposed to Vegas. Has been a significant pullback in the US gaming sector and US shareholders have probably pulled back on this stock. | 2008-06-25 | |
| Comment | | Le Château Inc. (A) | CTU.A-T | 13.130 | Pretty good underlying business. Retail has been very much out of favour in this market. Trades at a very low valuation multiple and generates a significant amount of cash flow. Smaller capitalization stock and a very illiquid trader. | 2008-06-25 | |
| BUY | | Bird Construction Income Fund | BDT.UN-T | 42.680 | This is the highest quality name in this space. Trades at a discounted valuation to a lot of the other infrastructure players. Very astute management team. 3.4% yield. | 2008-06-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Urbana Corp. (A Shares) | URB.A-T | 2.930 | Now is probably not a great time to invest in stock markets. He believes we are in the midst of a bear market in equities. In the latter stages of a bear market, there are significant declines in volumes and severe pricing pressures to do with trading commissions. | 2008-06-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | | BCE Inc. | BCE-T | 37.550 | Thanks in all likelihood the deal will close but there is some risk that it will be re-priced at a lower level. | 2008-06-25 | |
| Comment | | Canadian Tire Corporation Ltd. (A) | CTC.A-T | 54.550 | Great, long-term franchise. Has been hitting 52-week lows. Under pressure due to the weakening Ontario economy. There is also a lot more competition. Getting to a point where it might be interesting as a Buy. | 2008-06-25 | |
| Comment | | Aecon Group Inc | ARE-T | 16.800 | Long-term outlook is very strong. Have a very large backlog of business. Prefers Bird Construction (BDT.UN-T) | 2008-06-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Maple Leaf Foods | MFI-T | 11.050 | Well run company. In a difficult spot right now. As a food processor, a lot of the underlying costs have risen so dramatically that it has had a negative impact on the stock. Have some leverage on their balance sheet. Would prefer to play this through their subsidiary Canada Bread(CBY-T). | 2008-06-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Canada Bread Co. | CBY-T | 70.000 | Has gotten a little bit ahead of itself. Very good business. Has a duopoly in the baking business in Canada. Actually benefiting from the rising commodity costs, which they can pass on to the end customer. | 2008-06-25 | |
| Comment | | Corby Distilleries Ltd (A) | CDL.A-T | 17.560 | Likes the company but is a less liquid name. Has a significant ownership position from a European company called Pernod, which is one of the reasons it doesn't trade actively. Trading at about 8X EBITDA, which is pretty good value. | 2008-06-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Westjet Airlines | WJA-T | 14.260 | In this type of energy environment it is very risky to be in any airline. An industry that historically has not produced very high returns on capital. | 2008-06-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Agrium | AGU-T | 108.170 | Has appreciated significantly in the last year. One of the higher quality ways to play the agricultural theme in Canada. | 2008-06-25 | |
| Comment | | Canadian National R.R. | CNR-T | 50.580 | Longer-term, an excellent way to play the infrastructure and agricultural boom in Canada. Might consider this one if there is a pullback in the Canadian markets. | 2008-06-25 | |
| Comment | | Goldcorp Inc | G-T | 42.060 | Gold is a direct hedge to inflation and benefits from a weaker US$. He feels that buying the gold directly through an ETF is a cheaper way to play that theme as opposed to buying a gold mining company. | 2008-06-25 | |
| Comment | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Small-Cap Financials: - Pretty cautious on the financial station in general as he thinks there will be more negative news over the next several quarters. There is no real rush to move into this area. | 2008-02-27 | |
| HOLD | | Encana Corp | ECA-T | 73.700 | Largest and leading player in the natural gas space. Natural gas appears to be under priced and some of the fundamentals suggest prices should go higher. | 2008-02-27 | |
| Comment | | Canadian Tire Corporation Ltd. (A) | CTC.A-T | 64.510 | One of the great Canadian franchises. Under pressure lately because of the tough retail environment in Canada. Housing market is slowing which impacts them to some degree. Have a lot of hidden assets such as real estate, credit card business. Trades at about 7X EBITDA. Like it from a long-term perspective and is looking at it. Finding other retailers that are cheaper such as Sears Canada (SCC-T) that trades at about 3X EBITDA. | 2008-02-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Pine Tree Capital Ltd. | PNP-T | 4.640 | A merchant bank that owns a significant portfolio of resource stocks including mining, uranium and precious metals. Although the valuation and price to NAV has declined his concern would be the liquidity of the underlying stocks. | 2008-02-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Cott Corp | BCB-T | 2.500 | This one is a falling knife. Even though the share price is down materially, he wouldn't recommend it. Also, people tend to be moving away from soft drinks. Wal-Mart is cutting back. Will be late in filing their 10K, which is a concern. | 2008-02-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Empire Company (A) | EMP.A-T | 37.900 | There is a general concern in the grocery store industry in Canada. A lot of fundamental pressures including Wal-Mart and Costco getting into groceries. | 2008-02-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Shoppers Drug Mart Corp | SC-T | 49.920 | A premier franchise in Canada. The only concern he would have is the convergence in Canada of the drug retailers and grocery retailers. At quite a premium valuation to the grocery store industry, which would give him some concern. | 2008-02-27 | |
| BUY | | Le Château Inc. (A) | CTU.A-T | 12.550 | Moderately priced women's apparel. A really successful franchise in Canada. Trades at quite a discounted valuation at about 10X earnings. Has a healthy balance sheet with over $1 a share in net cash. Looking at this one. | 2008-02-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Yellow Pages Income Fund | YLO.UN-T | 11.730 | Pretty stable business. Phone directories and online advertising businesses. His concerns on this name would be the fairly high degree of financial leverage and its premiere valuation. Too expensive for him. | 2008-02-27 | |
| TOP PICK | | Fairfax Financial | FFH-T | 303.300 | Very high quality insurance company. Has been under pressure because of some of the acquisitions but has performed very well over the last year. Strong investment team. Just reported and had grown their BV per share by 48% year-over-year. Buy for the long-term. | 2008-02-27 | |
| TOP PICK | | Glacier Ventures International Corp. | GVC-T | 4.000 | One of the leading western Canadian media companies. Have about 50% of their revenues in newspapers in western Canada, which tends to be local community daily papers, so no competition with the big national advertisers. Also have an information services business of trade publications, training courses, manuals, etc. | 2008-02-27 | |
| TOP PICK | | Arbor Memorial Services Inc. | ABO.B-T | 32.000 | One of the leading funeral home and cemetery companies in Canada. Likes the long-term fundamentals of this business. Good demographics. The best managed in this industry in North America. | 2008-02-27 | |
