| BUY | | China Mobile Hong Kong | CHL-N | 84.870 | A really good proxy for the emerging market consumer. European, UK and US consumers may struggle for the next 12 to 18 months. The Asian consumer is still employed and earning higher wages with a pent-up demand for these toys. This is the biggest player there. | 2008-05-08 | |
| SELL | | Barclays Bank PLC | BCS-N | 36.190 | Being impacted by the credit markets. The UK is a bit of a rough market to be in. They don't have direct lending in terms of sub prime but have had some recessionary clues in terms of that market. Use any type of strength to lighten up and diversify into other sectors or a different geography. | 2008-05-08 | |
| Comment | | Global Agribusiness Trust | AGB.UN-T | 8.380 | This particular product is a closed end fund, which tend to trade at discounts to go realizable value. The assets within these funds are usually and always publicly traded companies. Liquidity is pretty low. Look at their website to see what is actually held and compare it to other stocks in the agricultural side that you might he looking at. | 2008-05-08 | |
| WAIT | | Agrium | AGU-T | 87.840 | Has had a huge run. There is a consistent message that it may not be as strong by the end of the year. The market has been pricing it up for perfection. He feels there will be a pullback in some of the commodity prices, which would be a more opportunistic time to step in. Good diversified business. | 2008-05-08 | |
| BUY | | Mindray Medical International Ltd. | MR-N | 39.550 | Pretty diversified but really a play on medical devices and medical testing in China. Layer on the demographics and the need for continued health-care and support for that from the Chinese government. Stocks have been really beaten down but the businesses are still growing. Likes this one for the dynamics. | 2008-05-08 | |
| TOP PICK | | CAE Inc | CAE-T | 12.350 | A global star if you look down their revenue streams and where they're getting their money. Pretty much outside of North America and Europe. Not super cheap, but the order book last year was really strong. There is a worldwide shortage of pilots and they pretty much do all the simulation. | 2008-05-08 | |
| TOP PICK | | ABB Ltd. | ABB-N | 31.310 | A global play on electricity infrastructure. Over a full third of their revenues is in the high growth emerging markets. Also, their developed markets are growing at mid-double digits so you are getting a 20% earnings growth stock for about 17X earnings. Strong dividend growth. Anywhere around $28 would be a comfortable level to buy. | 2008-05-08 | |
| TOP PICK | | Nestle | NESN-VX | 0.001 | (German stock exchange.) Nice global platform. Have assets that are not getting full value. Own a big piece of L’Oreal (cosmetics) and a big piece of Alcon (eye care). Recently sold a piece of Alcon to Novartis (NVS-N). Core businesses are global in nature. Getting about 15%-20% earnings at 17X. | 2008-05-08 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | | Visa Inc. | V-N | 87.300 | 2 marquee stocks that he is watching right now are Visa (V-N) and MasterCard (MA-N). They have no credit risk. They are transactional-based businesses. The multiples in terms of earnings are a bit rich. Wait for a pullback. If you want global growth, MasterCard would be the better. | 2008-05-08 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | | Mastercard Inc. | MA-N | 293.410 | 2 marquee stocks that he is watching right now are Visa (V-N) and MasterCard (MA-N). They have no credit risk. They are transactional-based businesses. The multiples in terms of earnings are a bit rich. Wait for a pullback. If you want global growth, MasterCard would be the better. | 2008-05-08 | |
| BUY | | Hanfeng Evergreen | HF-T | 12.380 | An interesting play on fertilizer. Listed in Toronto but the entire business is in China. Very interesting play and you are probably getting up at a decent discount to Agrium (AGU-T). Agrium owns a big chunk of this one. | 2008-05-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Potash Corp of Saskatchewan | POT-T | 113.150 | Compared to Agrium (AGU-T) the valuation is pretty hard to understand. Would be wary of it at these levels. Highly volatile. Stronger Cdn$ is going to hurt growth. Consider taking profits if you own. | 2007-11-14 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Morgan Stanley | MS-N | 55.610 | Would avoid US financials until there is some clarity as to who owns what. There’ll be lots of volatility here. | 2007-11-14 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Merrill Lynch & Co | MER-N | 57.980 | US financials are too volatile and you are just guessing. There are better places around the globe. | 2007-11-14 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Cameco Corporation | CCO-T | 42.220 | The issues here are more execution all and whether you get increased capacity. They have a huge asset, but it has to be developed to make some money off it. The other issue is there elongated contracts where they are not necessarily getting full benefit of the spot price. With this one, you are relying on high long-term energy prices. Prefers Uranium Participation (U-T). | 2007-11-14 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Royal Bank of Scotland PLC | RBS-N | 0.001 | Would avoid global as well as US financials until there is some clarity as to who owns what. Could potentially be tied into subprime issues. 6.8% is a record high yield, which is an indication there is a crisis going on. | 2007-11-14 | |
| Comment | | Banco Santander SA | STD-N | 21.670 | Their housing market/mortgages went quite high and hasn't rolled over quite as much as the US, but the risk is there. The great thing about them is that they have Latin American exposure and Brazil is a better market to be exposed to. | 2007-11-14 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Loblaws | L-T | 40.590 | He is playing this through the George Weston (WN-T) preferred shares. Loblaws is a classic value trap. Low margin business. Having trouble with the volume traffic in their stores. Wal-Mart (WMT-N) is pushing hard on costs. | 2007-11-14 | |
| BUY | | Brookfield Asset Management (A) | BAM.A-T | 33.540 | On his watch list. Nice technical entry point here. Own a big stake in Brookfield Properties (BPO-T), which is all US commercial real estate. You get tarred a bit with a sub prime brush, but it is more in terms of their undeveloped residential land and gets marked down. Hold prime Brazilian infrastructure assets. | 2007-11-14 | |
| TOP PICK | | ABB Ltd. | ABB-N | 28.790 | Basically a play on power infrastructure and productivity across the globe. Likes its emerging-market exposure. Getting almost 30% of its revenue out of emerging markets. Also getting 12%-15% growth out of the developed world. Buy under $20-$29. | 2007-11-14 | |
| TOP PICK | | Blackstone Group LP | BX-N | 22.340 | Likes this one because it has an Asian advantage. Partnered with a Chinese company (Chinese government owned) to purchase an Australian company. The real driver over the next 3 to 5 years is institutional investors. You will have to be patient on this one. | 2007-11-14 | |
| TOP PICK | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Ibiden - Ceramic packaging company. Has about 70% market share a diesel particulate filter of which the demand should double over the next 5 years. This has to go into the exhaust systems of any diesel automobile/transport vehicle made. (Ed. -Listed on the Japanese exchange.) | 2007-11-14 | |
| DON'T BUY | | McGraw Hill | MHP-N | 47.570 | They own Standard & Poor's, one of the world's largest rating agencies. This is an oligopoly between them and Moody's. There are litigation risks. Lots of volatility. | 2007-11-14 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Research In Motion | RIM-T | 105.900 | Has an attractive price to growth, so the PE multiple over earnings growth rate suggests the stock has room to go. On an access to China market headline, stock ran up 10% in 1 day. Huge moves on a daily basis. Current worry is that if the big US banks and global brokerage firms lay off a lot of people it will cut off a lot of subscribers. | 2007-11-14 | |
