STOCKCHASE

0.020

Small or Micro Cap and Tech Analysis: Support and resistance levels are a lot less important. In a small cap you are buying the news.

2011-10-27

BUY

0.020

REITS: Tend to well March to July and Now until end of year.

2011-10-27

N/A

0.020

Market: October 26 is the date to get into the market for a Santa Clause rally according to seasonal investing. If you invested for the best 6 months of the year since 1950, $10k would be worth a million. If you invested since 1950 for the other 6 months of the year you would loose $4k. There is some truth to buy when it snows and sell when it goes.

2011-10-27

DON'T BUY

Netflix Inc.

NFLX-Q

80.860

There is not a lot of support all the way down.

2011-10-27

TOP PICK

HBP NYMEX Nat'l Gas Bull+

39.940

(Top Pick May 5/11, Down 0.14%) Go long the discretionaries. A good time seasonally. He may exit it at some point in the middle.

2011-10-27

BUY

LuLulemon Athletica

LLL-T

57.120

Seasonals are now until black Thursday and Jan 23 to Apr 12. Strong trend line going up, a rising wedge, which are very positive for it. Look for it to break through it’s high from earlier this year.

2011-10-27

BUY

HNU-T

3.150

We just started the season period for Natural gas – until the end of the year. Supply is overwhelming and it will overwhelm seasonal trends, but this is when you should be looking for natural gas plays. This is a leveraged ETF so don’t use a lot of money.

2011-10-27

WAIT

ETFS Physical Platinum Shares

PPLT-N

159.790

Platinum has a strong season from January to end of May but didn’t work out that well last year, so he exited the sector. It is more of an industrial metal than gold. It will run with the other metals. He favours industrial metals now but wait on platinum until January.

2011-10-27

TOP PICK

XLI-N

34.260

This is a good time for industrials. From a technical basis. You are looking for it to get to $39.10. We have broken through our resistance point. A lot of the stocks came out with very strong earnings and the sector will do very well in general.

2011-10-27

WAIT

Agnico-Eagle Mines

AEM-T

60.810

Underperformed recently with its earnings and chart shows a down trend. For an entry point he would be looking at last July. Seasonality for gold is from July into October with another run from January until mid-May.

2011-05-05

DON'T BUY

Bombardier Inc (B)

BBD.B-T

6.840

Recently came out with some fantastic earnings and had a huge pop but from a seasonal perspective, he would be looking at it as economically sensitive.

2011-05-05

Comment

Cameco Corporation

CCO-T

27.680

Investors will remember the Japanese disaster for a little bit. There will be more stringent standards built in. There is no choice and we’ll have to go back to uranium down the road. Eventually things will pick up again. It may stay at its current level for a year or two. Needs to build a long base.

2011-05-05

Comment

Canadian National R.R.

CNR-T

73.600

Has been doing fantastic. Raised their dividend 20% in January. Forecasting 15% earnings growth. Free cash flow of $1.2 billion. Trading in a range. Seasonally he got out of the transportation sector because it tends to suffer some weakness this time of year. If it breaks down through the lower part of the range, you should get out.

2011-05-05

Comment

Imperial Oil

IMO-T

46.890

Moved up starting last year when they got approval for the Mackenzie pipeline. Probably looking for a little bit of a pull back. He would like it at the $38-$40 range.

2011-05-05

Comment

Intel

INTC-Q

23.610

Has had some fantastic numbers recently. Tech sector has some great earnings coming out. The back end of April is a pretty good time for tech stocks. Resistance would be back at the 2010 level and we are getting awfully close to that.

2011-05-05

TOP PICK

Proctor & Gamble

PG-N

65.880

This is a time period when you want to favour defensive stocks. Brand power is extremely strong. Stock is very close to the top of where it was a few months ago but it is the beginning of its seasonality so he is not too concerned. If it comes back down, he’ll reassess.

2011-05-05

Comment

Rogers Sugar Inc

RSI-T

5.160

In the commodity sector which is coming to the end of its period now. Chart shows a descending triangle and it has broken down through it. Getting close to its $5.10 support very fast. Next level would be $4.80.

2011-05-05

BUY on WEAKNESS

Royal Bank

RY-T

58.310

Seasonality for banks is January until April 15th. He sold his holdings in April. Technically it could pull back to about $54. His concern is if it went below that. Good entry point would be to wait for it to get to the $54 area, pull back up a little and showing some strength with good volume. Cdn banks start to outperform at the beginning of October.

2011-05-05

HOLD

Saputo Inc.

SAP-T

44.730

This is in a defensive sector. You can hide here and you won’t suffer the big down turns. Chart shows it has been having a fantastic run with great momentum.

2011-05-05

WAIT

Suncor Energy Inc

SU-T

39.600

We are now at the end of seasonality for oil. Also, this company underperformed with their earnings. Broke its trend line. Would look to get back in at the $33 range where it has a strong base. Late July early August, oil tends to do well again.

2011-05-05

Comment

Westjet Airlines

WJA-T

14.850

Well run company and did very well on their earnings. Doesn’t like the airlines for the long term. They tend to do much better in the fall, September and October. If this stays above the $14.50-$15 level, that’s a good thing but if it breaks down below that he would be exiting.

2011-05-05

TOP PICK

George Weston Ltd.

WN-T

69.740

Very defensive play. Little bit of a dividend as well. Good solid play for this time of the year.

2011-05-05

PAST TOP PICK

iUnits S&P/TSX Energy ETF

XEG-T

20.310

(A Top Pick Feb 28/11. Down 10.09%.) S&P/TSX Capped Energy ETF. Sold about halfway through April. Chart shows it has now broken through some major supports. Not a good pattern.

2011-05-05

Comment

Crescent Point Energy Corp

CPG-T

41.960

A 90% oil company and oil has been good up until now. A sound company. You have to take a look at what’s happening in the market place. He does hold a few stocks in a sector.

2011-05-05

WAIT

Monsanto Company

MON-N

64.790

Seasonality for fertilizers is from the end of July to Dec 31st. Could drop to $55 but in a weak market could hit the $45 range.

2011-05-05

Comment

0.020

Silver. Finished its seasonality at the end of April. Has been in a bubble lately and had a parabolic move, which he doesn’t like as you don’t know when it’s going to collapse. Will be coming back down to the $30 range. If it keeps going down, it could reach $20. There will be a lot of volatility.

2011-05-05

Comment

0.020

Markets. Coming off the earnings season in the US. Now starting to focus on economic numbers but they’re not so good and people are challenging valuations. Speculation has been fairly high and people have been questioning that. Weaker employment numbers. There’s a big number coming out tomorrow and people are scared of that and don’t want to be in the market so they’re pulling all their speculative bets off the table. This is the time of the year to be more conservative.

2011-05-05

Comment

0.020

Oil. This is the end of the season for oil. Oil tends to run from Feb 25th to May 9th. He started taking his oil positions off in April when he saw some weakness.

2011-05-05

Comment

0.020

Linear vs. Log Charts. Linear is an arithmetic chart while a log chart measures in percentage gains. If you have a 100 point move. Preference is for a Log charts in technical analysis.

2011-05-05

WAIT

0.020

Agriculture and fertilizers tend to go up from the end of July to Dec 31st. Since 1990, the average return in this period has been 15%.

2011-05-05

TOP SHORT

BMO Equal Weight Bank ETF

40.260

Consumer Discretionary ETF. Basically a Pairs Trade. He goes long the staples sector and goes short the discretionary sector. If the market goes down, he is expecting the discretionary sector to go down more.

2011-05-05

Comment

CSX Corp

CSX-N

77.830

Solid US rail company. Doing a 3 for 1 split and raising its dividend. You don’t buy stocks just because they are splitting. Currently in a consolidation mode. If it starts to fall, it is probably a sell candidate.

2011-05-05

PAST TOP PICK

ZEB-T

18.270

(A Top Pick Feb 28/11. Up 0.91%.) Equal Weight Bank ETF. Got out at the beginning of April. Saw weakness in the US banks.

2011-05-05

PAST TOP PICK

SPDR Metals Mining ETF

XME-N

70.410

(A Top Pick Feb 28/11.Down 0.91%.) Metals Mining ETF. Season trade for this is from October to January and from mid January to Beginning of May. He exited in May.

2011-05-05

DON'T BUY

Agrium

AGU-T

92.120

Agrium (AGU-T) or Mosaic (MOS-N)? Agriculture sector did extremely well over the last couple of months. Was into agriculture stocks in July and sold out at the end of December, which is when these stocks tend to do well. Overall sector goes up 15.5% on average over the last 21 years. Seasonally this is a period when agriculture tends to be flat. Technically there might be a little more upside but there will be a lot of resistance at $91.50.

2011-02-28

Comment

BCE Inc.

BCE-T

36.020

Technically it is very strong and chart shows a very positive trend. Will probably outperform the market for the next little while. You have to watch to see if it breaks down at about the $35 level.

2011-02-28

BUY

Canadian Oil Sands

COS-T

30.050

Technically has been in a trading range of about $27-$30. Now starting to rise which is a favourable trend and should go to $34-$35 from here. Good seasonal and fundamental trends.

2011-02-28

DON'T BUY

Cisco

CSCO-Q

18.560

Had a big correction last spring, followed by 3 misses on earnings. CEO has stated that he doesn’t see good things and the stock corrected, then rallied back up again. Trailing 12 month multiple is 13.8% versus the S&P 500 of 15.5%. Attractive, but the margins are going down from 63.3% to 62% because of more competition. Prefers Technology stocks from October into January.

2011-02-28

Comment

Research In Motion

RIM-T

64.150

Potential for Playbook hasn't been priced into the stock. Increased handset shipments by 40% in 2010. Also beat analysts’ estimates last quarter. Technology tends to do well October into January. Technically, chart shows a lot of support at $45 with lower highs from early 09. Broke out late 2010 breaking a long-term trend, which is very positive so technicals look very good. Could see it going to $72.

2011-02-28

BUY

Suncor Energy Inc

SU-T

45.660

Great company. Great properties in the oil sands. Great long-term company. Technically chart shows consolidation at around $33, which is very bullish. This is also in a strong seasonal period.

2011-02-28

BUY

Teck Resources Ltd. (B)

TCK.B-T

53.750

Seasonally Metals and Mining sector from the end of January until May tends to do quite well. Has a 7.7% on average last 21 years 75% of the time. Technically chart shows a resistance at around $48 which it broke through in 2010.The pull back at the beginning of the year was when the sector got hit a little bit. Has support at $48 now. Could have a little more pull back but will go up again.

2011-02-28

TOP PICK

iUnits S&P/TSX Energy ETF

XEG-T

22.770

S&P/TSX Capped Energy ETF. Tended to outperform the S&P and the TSX over the last 21 years. Technically there was a strong consolidation period followed by a very positive breakout trend. Good support at $19.

2011-02-28

BUY

Crescent Point Energy Corp

CPG-T

46.980

Seasonality for energy is usually from January to May as well as from July until September. This year has performed well outside of the seasonality. Technically, chart shows resistance at around $40 which has now become support when it broke out late 2010. Stock looks really good.

2011-02-28

Comment

0.020

Markets – Little overbought right now but that doesn’t mean they are going to come down. This is a favourable time for markets to rally until May. Possibility for a correction to take place. Even if there is one, he expects the market to go up from here. Can still see the oil sector going very well. In material sector, metals and mining tend to do well. Also financial as well as discretionary.

2011-02-28

BUY

Silver Wheaton

SLW-T

41.300

Silver and platinum seasonality tends to run from February into May. Chart shows a good up trend and it technically just had a break out, which is very positive. Thinks it has some legs from here.

2011-02-28

PAST TOP PICK

iShares S&P 500 (CAD-Hedged) ETF

39.410

(A Top Pick Nov 1/10. Up 12.51%.) Consumer Discretionary ETF. Consumer stocks do well on average every year from October to the middle of April. Will hold this for a couple of months from here.

2011-02-28

PAST TOP PICK

SPDR Technology ETF

XLK-N

26.560

(A Top Pick Nov 1/10. Up 9.17%.) Technology ETF. Sold out just past January when consumer electronics show took place.

2011-02-28

PAST TOP PICK

XSP-T

15.210

(A Top Pick Nov 1/10. Up 12.73%.) S&P 500 (CAD-Hedged) ETF. If you are in it, it’s a great place to be for the next few months.

2011-02-28

DON'T BUY

Mosaic Company (The)

MOS-N

85.850

2011-02-28

DON'T BUY

Air Canada (B)

AC.B-T

2.840

Reported $134 million profit but $111 million was in foreign exchange. Analysts had expected a $0.04 a share loss but it came in at $0.06. Airlines are extremely sensitive to oil prices.

2011-02-28

Comment

Thompson Creek Metals

TCM-T

12.800

Mainly a molybdenum play but did acquire a BC copper company. Metals tend to do well at this particular time seasonally. Moly is highly correlated to steel prices, which is in its seasonal period now. Technically the chart shows a little pull back but is almost at its support level. April tends to be a very good time for commodity and commodity stocks so there might be a breakout.

2011-02-28

DON'T BUY

Claymore Global Agriculture ETF

COW-T

23.690

Agriculture sector tends to do well seasonally from beginning of August to the end of the year. Technically the chart shows a strong up trend into the early part of 2011 but could be starting to break down.

2011-02-28

TOP PICK

BMO Equal Weight Bank ETF

ZEB-T

18.170

Equal Weight Bank ETF. Banks do well from October until the end of December and then form Jan 23rd to April 12th. This applies to both US and Canadian banks. Technically chart shows a very positive trend with an ascending triangle. It popped above the $17.30 line on Jan 23rd. He plans on holding it until mid-April.

2011-02-28

TOP PICK

SPDR Metals Mining ETF

XME-N

71.660

Metals Mining ETF. Metals/mining has a positive seasonal trend at this time of year. Also looking good technically. This sector has out performed the S&P 500 over the last 21 years up until May 5th.

2011-02-28

HOLD

Apple

AAPL-Q

304.180

Has been a little weaker recently. Surprised him. Some consolidation at the 250 level and then the break out. He would look for it to hang around in this area. Apple does well at this time – kids gifts, etc. Peak in January because of the consumer electronics show. Formed a support line and look for it to come down. Look to take profits in the new year.

2010-11-01

WEAK BUY

Bombardier Inc (B)

BBD.B-T

5.040

Just recently announced the long-range aircraft. Solid backlog. Equally split between trains and planes. Will move with economy. From a seasonal perspective it should do well this time of year. Expects it to do better. It corrected itself earlier in the year. Doesn’t expect huge gains. Sell at $6.50. C-Series – if a whole lot of orders come in, great, but otherwise it is an overhang. They are trying to get into emerging markets with planes that can fly further.

2010-11-01

BUY

Breakwater Resources

BWR-T (Dead)

5.960

Play on zinc. Has put in a base since ’09 and there was break out recently. A good stock and performed extremely well and expects it to continue. Nov 19 into January, metals and mines do well. Looking for it to pull up from here.

2010-11-01

BUY

Encana Corp

ECA-T

28.720

Drillers are drilling just to keep their leases. Analysts have to start using lower natural gas prices in their analysis. $30 is support and $37 is resistance. It just dropped below support. He would look for it to go up to resistance. Don’t hold past December. It IS in its season.

2010-11-01

WAIT

Iamgold Corp

IMG-T

18.620

Golds do well in July until September and then November until December and little into January. Around this time of year Gold gets consumed in Jewelry. Technical pattern for IMG is very positive because it is a descending triangle. Look for it to break $20 and then it will do well.

2010-11-01

WAIT

Lexmark International

LXK-N

38.760

It got hit really hard. Wait right now for it to turn back over $40 on strong volume. $40 is where you are if you connect all the peaks.

2010-11-01

DON'T BUY

Manulife Financial

MFC-T

12.760

Banks have a similar seasonal aspect. We are in their season. With MFC you are playing the equity markets. Interest rates going down also hurt them. If equity markets start picking up again you might see MFC get some life back into it. But they have to keep adjusting their reserves. Not his favourite stock. Early ’09 may not be the bottom. It could scrape along the bottom for a bit longer.

2010-11-01

BUY

Research In Motion

RIM-T

57.000

Analysts in the US are very negative and in Canada are positive. Traded by high volume traders. Very positive reception on the playbook. Market is not very patient and soon forgets. We may get a pull back. We formed a triangle on this stock. He expects Rim to do well up until January.

2010-11-01

BUY

Russel Metals

RUS-T

19.990

Metals and mining does well ¾ way through November. A very positive (ascending triangle). Very positive - when the lows are getting higher and higher. If the market starts to go it go will up.

2010-11-01

BUY

Royal Bank

RY-T

54.150

Seasonality for the Canadian banks is different from American. American Banks are strong after their year end December 31st. Canadian banks perform mid-October until April 12th. It’s a good bank because its been in the dog house.

2010-11-01

WAIT

Westshore Terminals Inc.

WTE.UN-T

23.650

Great trust - has done very, very well. Trading in a trend, which is fantastic. Then a breakout above that trend. It may pull back below the mid ’08 high. Probably not a great entry point.

2010-11-01

BUY

Uranium One Inc.

UUU-T

4.240

There is no seasonality with Uranium. Just broke out at $3.30. It is a very positive development. A strong chart pattern breakout.

2010-11-01

WEAK BUY

Yamana Gold Inc.

YRI-T

11.140

Season for gold has ended. This one hasn’t performed very well. They just aren’t hitting all the right nails at the right time. Not his favourite. Resistance 12.2 and base 8.7. If the others do well it will do well.

2010-11-01

PAST TOP PICK

iShares S&P/TSX Global Gold

XGD-T

25.040

(Top Pick Aug 5/09, Up 13.3%) end of season trade in gold is end of September, so he got out at that time.

2010-11-01

N/A

0.020

QE expectations were a big reason for the run up in the markets. Doesn’t think the Fed even wants to do QE but they are boxed in. There might be a little bit of a sell off on the announcement. Usually after the election it is a great time to be in the market, but this time might be a little different. He is expecting a strong 6 months, though. Doesn’t see a big correction at this time. The markets are too strong. He is 95% in cash in his HAC fund – since May. His finger is on the trigger.

2010-11-01

Comment

0.020

Shorting: in his book he has included a few strategies. He shorts using ETFs.

2010-11-01

BUY

0.020

Currencies: US$ has a weak December because countries repatriate their currencies. Then US$ has a strong January.

2010-11-01

TOP PICK