STOCKCHASE

iShares DEX All Govt Bond E.T.F.

26.920

Consumer Staples ETF. Long on this and Short on Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY-N). Good sector to be in, in the summertime. People will not change their buying habits based on what is going on in the economy.

2010-05-06

TOP PICK

XGB-T

20.290

All Government Bond ETF. These are midterm bonds, 8-10 years. Bonds tend to do well from May through to December.

2010-05-06

PAST TOP PICK

18.570

(A Top Pick Nov 23/09. Down 2.9%.) Materials ETF. Made up of 60% gold plus some Potash (POT-T) and Agriun (AGU-T). Sold his holdings at the beginning of January as they had finished with their seasonal time period. Had made a profit.

2010-05-06

PAST TOP PICK

iUnits S&P/TSX 60 E.T.F.

XIU-T

17.460

(A Top Pick Nov 23/09. No change.) TSX 60 index. Has gone back and forth between this and the US index, depending which market was better.

2010-05-06

PAST TOP PICK

22.240

(A Top Pick Nov 23/09. No change.) Technology ETF. Seasonal trade for technology goes from October to the beginning of January when technology tends to do well until the consumers electronics show.

2010-05-06

BUY on WEAKNESS

Fortis Inc.

FTS-T

26.260

Utilities tend to do better in July. Tend to get hit with the market in the beginning and then people tend to get attracted later in July and in September. Below $25 would be a good time to look at this.

2010-05-06

WAIT

35.600

Utilities tend to do better in July. Tend to get hit with the market in the beginning and then people tend to get attracted later in July and in September.

2010-05-06

WAIT

Canadian Natural Rsrcs

CNQ-T

72.700

Good solid company and oily rather than gassy. Oil is usually a good trade from February 25 until May 9. Expect this one will pull back a little bit more. Look for it to drop to $55. Oil tends to pick up in July, which might be a good time to pick it up.

2010-05-06

BUY

46.120

25% of its gold production is in Australia, which has just levied a super tax on gold profits. Could see the stock hitting $50 very shortly. Gold does well in May for a brief time and then pulls back in June. Middle of July when gold tends to pick up again.

2010-05-06

HOLD

Agrium

AGU-T

59.460

Just reported a loss of $.04 a share. Agricultural stocks got hit very hard in 2008. Farmers now have to apply more fertilizer this year to make up for what was neglected. Season for fertilizer/agriculture is from August through to December.

2010-05-06

HOLD

Viterra Inc

VT-T

8.000

Expects to see some strong pickup in a couple of months. Could drop another $1.25. Agriculture seasonality is from August through to December.

2010-05-06

DON'T BUY

Manulife Financial

MFC-T

18.250

Financial seasonality runs from mid-January until April 14. Not a big fan of this company. Still linked to the market and will probably do well when the market does well. Chart shows a bearish pattern with lower highs.

2010-05-06

Comment

CIC Energy

ELC-T

1.550

Platinum trade has worked very well for the last few years. Seasonal period is from January 1 until the end of May. Platinum is used in catalytic converters, particularly diesels. We're getting really close to that. Consider getting out or using a stoploss.

2010-05-06

SELL

Mercator Minerals Ltd.

ML-T

0.190

Small company. Properties in Arizona with copper and a little bit of molybdenum. Be very careful investing in small companies like this. Seasonality for metals would be November 13 until May 5. We are at the end of the seasonal period for copper.

2010-05-06

DON'T BUY

Suncor Energy Inc

SU-T

32.370

Seasonality for oil is from November 25 until the beginning of May, right now. Chart shows it got turned down from its resistance point and is in a little bit of a channel. If it goes below $27, he would be very cautious.

2010-05-06

DON'T BUY

Dryships

DRYS-Q

5.210

Basically into shipping commodities but have recently got into ocean rigs, which is probably not the best sector to be in. Technically, it is currently at the bottom and is difficult to say if it is going to go back up. Doesn't think it's in the right sector at the right time.

2010-05-06

TOP PICK

19.120

Materials S&P/TSX ETF. All the components in this are in a good spot now. About 60% in gold plus fertilizers and metals and mining. Technically gold had a nice breakout around October 28 when it typically has seasonal strength.

2009-11-23

TOP PICK

iUnits S&P/TSX 60 E.T.F.

XIU-T

17.410

S&P/TSX 60 ETF. Investors should have a core holding in than going out and getting the sectors that appeal to them.

2009-11-23

TOP PICK

22.070

Technology ETF. Technology is doing well and he thinks it is a seasonal play now. You want to Sell either the first week of January (consumer electronics show in Las Vegas) or January 17th with Stop/Losses.

2009-11-23

PAST TOP PICK

27.120

(A Top Pick May 5/09. Up 24%.) Consumer staples tend to do best in the summer when investors tend to go to defensive stocks.

2009-11-23

PAST TOP PICK

Shoppers Drug Mart Corp

SC-T

43.570

(A Top Pick May 5/09. No change.) A dead stock now waiting for the Ontario government to make a decision.

2009-11-23

PAST TOP PICK

CASH

0.000

(A Top Pick May 5/09.) Currently has zero cash.

2009-11-23

Comment

0.020

Gold. Seasonality is typically from July 12 to October 9. 67% of gold is consumed in jewellery and most of it is in India. October gold has tended to correct when central banks dumped gold but not so much this year. Gold can now run through to the end of the year and even into February but then drops off until the summer.

2009-11-23

BUY

Agrium

AGU-T

59.710

Seasonality for fertilizer tends to go from July until the end of the year. This one has almost doubled from the bottom and is getting a little rich but technically looks okay. Chart shows an ascending triangle, which is positive. Don't hold up past December.

2009-11-23

BUY

0.020

Banks. Canadian banks year-end is the end of October. Traditionally they have cleaned up all their stuff with good positive surprises. Seasonality is from the end of October into mid April.

2009-11-23

BUY

33.530

Solid well managed company. Evenly split between the power and pipes. 4.6% yield. Will be hiking their toll rates on the pipelines. Chart shows an ascending triangle, which is positive.

2009-11-23

HOLD

San Gold Corporation

SGR-X

3.830

Chart shows a long, major uptrend over the last year. On the Vancouver exchange so there's a lot of volatility. You want to favour these stocks during the seasonal period of July 12 to October 9. But gold can now run through to the end of the year and even into February. Use a stoploss.

2009-11-23

Comment

0.020

Oil. Seasonality is February 26th to May 9th. Oil has gone up 24 out of the last 26 times and produced a return of 8.9%. Refineries start switching over from crude to start preparing for the driving season

2009-11-23

WAIT

Talisman Energy

TLM-T

18.610

This is the time period when oil starts to do reasonably well but it's real sweet spot is in January and February but you can start looking at it a little earlier. He would tend to wait until the breakthrough its resistance level.

2009-11-23

BUY

FNX Mining Company

FNX-T(Dead)

12.020

This is a good time to be into the materials from the seasonal standpoint. Broken out of its downturn and has moved up and could possibly reach the $18 mark. That would be a good time to sell.

2009-11-23

Comment

63.470

Technology tends to do well from October 9 to about January 17, when the consumer electronic show goes on in Vegas.

2009-11-23

HOLD

Bombardier Inc (B)

BBD.B-T

4.960

Tends to do well at this time of the year along with industrials. Has broken through the resistance point of $4.53. Chart shows an upward channel. Hold for now and lighten up in the springtime.

2009-11-23

TOP PICK

CASH

0.000

His philosophy is to reduce equity positions at this time and get back in on October 27.

2009-05-05

TOP PICK

iShares S&P 500 $Cdn E.T.F.

22.240

A rotation strategy where he goes from discretionary to staples and back again. Makes 2 trades a year. Runs discretionary sector from the end of October to May and then do staples in the summertime. From 1990 this trade has produced a return of 3 X the S&P 500. Get out on October 27.

2009-05-05

TOP PICK

Shoppers Drug Mart Corp

SC-T

43.990

Solid company with some good growth potential and very defensive characteristics. Trading at about 16X PE and about 1:22 S&P Composite. Get out on October 27.

2009-05-05

PAST TOP PICK

XSP-T

10.620

(A Top Pick Nov 10/08. Down 3.16% for 12 months but this a 6 months call and he is now out of this. Time of year when he is more conservative but will go in again in Oct 27.)

2009-05-05

PAST TOP PICK

HBP Financials Bear+ E.T.F.

14.260

(A Top Pick Nov 10/08. Up 26.73% but was a 6 months call and he is now out of this. Time of year when he is more conservative but will step in again in Nov/09.)

2009-05-05

PAST TOP PICK

SNC-Lavalin Group Inc.

SNC-T

37.960

(A Top Pick Nov 10/08. Up 10.19% but was a 6 months call and he is now out of this. Time of year when he is more conservative but will step it up again in the fall.) Great company and great position but would Sell and get back in later on.

2009-05-05

Comment

HFD-T

18.350

Financials. A big bet on the market right now with what is coming up with stress testing this Thursday. What happens in the US will definitely affect Canadian markets. Banks tend to do well from mid December to the end of April. If you own, sell into the rally in the next month or so.

2009-05-05

Comment

iUnits S&P Financial

XFN-T

18.260

Financials. With rising unemployment, there could be more credit card debt being unpaid debt that hasn't hit them yet. The good signs of economic recovery is not convincing enough. However Technicals look good. Broke through a bottom at about $14 and has gone through resistance of about $18. Seasonally, banks can do okay at this time of year. Could end up in a trading range in this area.

2009-05-05

WAIT

Potash Corp of Saskatchewan

POT-T

111.600

Phosphate and nitrogen prices have dropped. Potash has been holding up and farmers are waiting for it to drop. Technically, it has broken its long-term downtrend and has been forming a nice ascending triangle pattern, which is a good sign. Seasonally, potash tends to go up from July/August. Would revisit this stock in July from a technical standpoint.

2009-05-05

DON'T BUY

0.020

Natural Gas: A lot of shale gas came into play last year. That helped drive down prices. This year, there is talk of LNG coming from the middle east. Long-term, it has been going down and down. Good news is that seasonally natural gas prices tend to go up in July/August and on to the end of the year.

2009-05-05

BUY on WEAKNESS

Sherritt International Corp.

88.670

Has done extremely well. Is above the resistance line. If technology keeps going up this stock will continue up. There is a possibility of some weakness and the stock could come back and bounce off the $70 line. On a pullback, he would look at getting in at around $70.

2009-05-05

DON'T BUY

Thompson Creek Metals

TCM-T

9.120

Molybdenum. Base metals have gone up a huge amount since March. Because of the economic news coming out you have to be careful. Seasonally, metals do not do well from July to September. Be very careful about your entry points in this sector. He would wait until the fall.

2009-05-05

DON'T BUY

S-T

5.180

2 positive things going for it. Base metals have bottomed and US relations with Cuba have improved. Trading in a range of about $1.80 to $5. Thinks it will pull back and he would wait until October.

2009-05-05

WAIT

0.020

Crude Oil: Hasn’t responded as well in its sector. Has gone up and has done well but he usually sees bigger returns from the end of February to May so there may be a little bit left because of a whole economic situation. However he thinks you would be better to wait until the end of July to Buy.

2009-05-05

WAIT

Canadian Tire Corporation Ltd. (A)

0.020

Gold: He is a long-term bull on gold. It has broken down through its channel and is now moving sideways. He sees gold going down to possibly $750. July 27 would be the time to get back in, until the end of September.

2009-05-05

Comment

CTC.A-T

50.350

Used to be defensive but is now a mix between discretionary and staples. $52 will act as a little bit of resistance so you have to be careful. If it goes through this, you may be able to wait and let it run but use a stoploss of $52. If it doesn't go through, consider selling.

2009-05-05

DON'T BUY

Nexen Inc

NXY-T

23.900

Has broken its long-term downtrend and is starting to move up to its resistance line. At the same time, MACD has been rolling over. This is not a favourable chart.

2009-05-05

WAIT

iShares S&P 500 $Cdn E.T.F.

37.180

Traditionally there is a ratio of bullion being 4X to 6X of gold stocks. This went up substantially last fall to a record of 11.7X. That was a great time to purchase gold stocks. It is still trading above 7X. Because of this, he is expecting gold stocks to outperform gold seasonally between July 27 and the end of September.

2009-05-05

WAIT

Goldcorp Inc

G-T

33.830

2009-05-05

TOP PICK

XSP-T

11.000

S&P 500: May was when you should have been conservative but now is the time to get back into the marketplace. He is looking for an increase in the broad market. This is a good way to play it.

2008-11-10

TOP PICK

11.310

Materials: Has Potash (POT-T), Agrium (AGU-T) and Gold and he expects them all to do well. Commodities sold off because there was too much speculation in them. Material sector tends to do well this time of year and does well until the end of the year. Gets a little weak in January and then runs until May. The materials sector has been oversold on a fundamental basis.

2008-11-10

TOP PICK

SNC-Lavalin Group Inc.

SNC-T

34.420

Governments today are acting very differently than they did decades ago. They are now trying to fix the problems. China just announced a $586 billion infrastructure package. Expecting governments globally to start doing this.

2008-11-10

PAST TOP PICK

Kellog

K-N

49.990

(A Top Pick May 9/08. Down 4%.) Picked this as a conservative stock. Turned out there was no safe place in October.

2008-11-10

PAST TOP PICK

24.330

(A Top Pick May 9/08. Down 4%.) This was a defensive pick. The time to keep staples is from May to the end of October.

2008-11-10

PAST TOP PICK

35.470

(A Top Pick May 9/08. Down 7%.) Conservative play. Had been trading in a band. Thought it would hold up at around $36 but actually went through that point along with everything else.

2008-11-10

Comment

0.020

Oil: Historically oil, on average, goes up from January to May and is flat the rest of the year. This sector also tends to bottom on October 31. This is a good time to starting getting in to this market.

2008-11-10

Comment

0.020

Gold: Gold normally trades in a range of 3X to 6X the price of gold stocks. Hedge funds have sold their positions left, right and centre. Has nothing to do with inflation. Things will correct over time as he is expecting the US$ to roll over.

2008-11-10

HOLD

Yamana Gold Inc.

YRI-T

5.870

Has been hit very hard. Have fallen a lot because they have a lot of copper and silver. Recently cut back their forecasts. They are a tier 2 player and are trying to make it into the tier 1 market by getting to 2 million ounces by 2011 and extended it out to 2012. Technically thinks it will run into a little bit of resistance at $9.

2008-11-10

Comment

Potash Corp of Saskatchewan

55.690

Coming out with smart phones and will be competing with Apple (AAPL-Q). Spending a lot of money to market the phone and get volume. Analysts did not like this so it got hit hard. From a technology standpoint they have a good market but have to formulate a plan to penetrate that market. Expect they will find a bottom around this price and going back up.

2008-11-10

Comment

Canadian National R.R.

CNR-T

51.170

Has been performing quite well recently because oil has been dropping. Seasonally, transportation does quite well from the end of September to halfway through November. Not seeing a lot of potential technically. If it goes past its resistance of $57, he would Hold but thinks there are other opportunities available.

2008-11-10

Comment

Canadian Pacific Rail

CP-T

50.620

Hasn't fared as well as Canadian National (CNR-T). If it reaches its resistance level of $66 it would not be a bad place to exit.

2008-11-10

HOLD

Telus Corp

T-T

40.290

Extremely well run company. Fundamentally, he would have a look at how much money they are making on their wireless. Starting to see some real competition heat up before the new entrants start coming in so some margins may erode. From a technical standpoint, it has broken a long-term trend bottom and it may base out a little more.

2008-11-10

BUY

Viterra Inc

VT-T

8.510

Should basically go along with grains. Been unfairly punished. You would expect, on a seasonal basis, when grain tends to go up, the stock would do the same. Grains tend to go up from August until the end of the year. Hasn't worked this year. Since we are now in the seasonal time there may be a bounce. Technically there should be support at this point. Exit later on in the year.

2008-11-10

DON'T BUY

CitiGroup

C-N

11.210

Technically it is not bad as it has broken its long-term trend line and will probably bottom out sideways.US Financials: From a seasonal perspective they tend to go up halfway through December into the beginning of May because their year-end is the beginning of the calendar year and they tend to get rid of bad news and give a really positive forward look. This time, the banks haven't had much good news. Wouldn't go into this sector at this point.

2008-11-10

DON'T BUY

Royal Bank

RY-T

47.380

Seasonally Canadian banks tend to go up about now. This is a time when they come out with their earnings. Not going to happen this year. If you are looking for a conservative bank, this is probably the best risk managed bank by far. Wouldn't buy into Canadian banks this time around. Technically, the chart shows a broadening formation and expects the stock will come back up through $50, which should provide good support for it.

2008-11-10

BUY

Bombardier Inc (B)

BBD.B-T

4.710

Seasonally, industrial stocks tend to follow the over all broad market, from the end of October through to May. Has been hit hard. Companies haven't slowed sales, but are starting to cut back in preparation of an economic slowdown. On the other hand, he can see large amounts of infrastructure spending taking place, which will include transportation. Thinks it is a good choice at this time and hold it through until May.

2008-11-10

BUY

Agrium

AGU-T

44.850

Fertilizer stocks tend to do well from July until the end of the year. That correlates well with grain prices. Recently came out with some really good earnings. The stock came down too far. A great buy at this level.

2008-11-10

BUY

POT-T

97.400

Fertilizer stocks tend to do well from July until the end of the year. That correlates well with grain prices. Stock came down too far. A great buy at this level.

2008-11-10

Comment

HBP NYMEX Oil Bull+ E.T.F.

0.020

Cdn$: Fundamentally believes US$ is overvalued on a longer-term perspective. US is printing a huge amount of money but at some time it is going to come back and will erode. Seasonally, the US$ tends to head down about now. Foreign countries tend to repatriate their currencies for accounting purposes.

2008-11-10

DON'T BUY

HOU-T

7.070

A leveraged oil play and will trade with oil prices. Oil will probably form a bit of a bottom here and then trade sideways. Maybe it will go up over time. He would tend to focus on oil stocks in January and February, preferably February 5th.

2008-11-10

TOP PICK

38.340

A good way to play the oil at this point. Fairly good yield at about 3.8%. In a trading range and is near the bottom at this time and will go back up to the top of its range and possibly beyond that.

2008-05-09

TOP PICK

27.840

From a currency perspective, he wants to be in something safe in the US. On a seasonal basis, consumer staples tend to do well at this point. From a technical perspective, the chart shows a solid trend line in place. Get out of this on October 28.

2008-05-09

TOP PICK

Kellog

K-N

50.870

A safer way to play the market right now. Good consumer products and good brand recognition. Managing their input costs quite well. Very little downside. Decent dividend. Get out of this on October 28.

2008-05-09

PAST TOP PICK

HOLDRs Retail E.T.F.

RTH-N

94.440

(A Top Pick Oct 27/07. Down 4%.) Retail sector tends to do very well every year from the end of October to the end of November. This was a very short-term trade. His results where flat or slightly down.

2008-05-09

PAST TOP PICK

24.500

(A Top Pick Oct 27/07. Down 12%.) Technology sector tends to do well in the fall, from October into the beginning of January. The consumer Las Vegas electronics show tends to be a big driver. People tend to buy technology ahead of that. January was the suggested Sell date. Not a big fan of the technology sector at this point.

2008-05-09

PAST TOP PICK

SPDR Health Care E.T.F.

XLV-N

31.470

(A Top Pick Oct 27/07. Down 11%.) This was basically a defensive play to the end of the year and was up at that time. Still a Buy.

2008-05-09

Comment

0.020

Seasonal Investing: - As a seasonal investor, you would take small investments and rotate through the different sectors of the market. When does oil too well, when does Gold do well, when does technology do well etc.? You end up with a basket of these and you are averaging out over time. If you can get 70%-80% of those trades working, then you will be in the market.

2008-05-09

Comment

0.020

Gold: - Has been a fairly reliable trade every fall. About 70% of gold is consumed by jewellery. India has a Diwali festival, which has a huge consumption of gold. Fabricators start to buy the gold in July, which tends to drive gold up until the end of September. He is a Bull on gold and thinks it will go back above $1000.

2008-05-09

Comment

0.020

Oil: - Trade between Feb 5th and May 9th has been a very reliable time to trade. 23 of the last 25 years has been positive and beaten the market. What is actually happening is that the oil refineries are producing more and more gasoline for the summer driving season. The next opportunity that occurs is basically in July, which is when they refineries are starting to produce oil for the heating season.

2008-05-09

Comment

TSX Group

X-T

47.980

The TSX has had a fantastic rally. Up to all-time highs. Chart shows it is bouncing off the top again, which is a positive sign if it can break that level. However, there is a downward trend on the lows, which concerns him. Technically, you are waiting for the breakthrough.

2008-05-09

BUY

Potash Corp of Saskatchewan

133.350

Has broken through its all-time high recently. From a technical basis, it looks good. Solid uptrend.

2008-05-09

BUY on WEAKNESS

POT-T

198.500

Great chart showing a solid trend and the stock is still well above that trend. It could pull back to the $135-$140 level and he would buy at that level. It across that level and showed weakness he would sell.

2008-05-09

WAIT

39.510

Have come a long way from having a hedge book and clearing out their hedge book. Came out with some great results the other day. Well diversified. Gold tends to take off in the July timeframe and he thinks there is a pause in gold right now. The technical picture on the company is not that bad. Has come down to the same level as the “left shoulder” on the chart. Wait until July.

2008-05-09

Comment

U.S. Gasoline Fund E.T.F.

0.020

Food Companies: - What is happening here is that they are being squeezed and are having difficulty passing on price increases. What you want to see is a good solid name with a lot of Brand in the industry. Food tends to be in the consumer staple industries, which is a good place to be at this time.

2008-05-09

WAIT

CAE Inc

CAE-T

12.870

The company is in a good position. Well recognized internationally. Technically, the chart is showing a symmetrical triangle. Would wait for it to break out of the symmetrical triangle on the up side.

2008-05-09

WATCH

Suncor Energy Inc

SU-T

125.780

Might be in a blow off (rapid rise) in oil, which makes it very difficult, especially when there are no fundamentals actually driving it. The big build in oil inventory should have driven the oil price down but oil still went up. Once past the seasonality, that is when the big drops can occur. Technicals look not bad. Chart shows an ascending triangle and it has broken through very nicely. You might wait for a pullback to the resistance point of about $105.

2008-05-09

WAIT

Yamana Gold Inc.

YRI-T

14.880

Technically, it formed a triangle in 2006 and then broke through, broke into a down trend line in 2007 and then went into an uptrend from mid-2007. It could have a bounce from this level if gold does well. If you own, you could be looking at $19 when you might want to unload. Thinks there will be weakness in gold into the summer months.

2008-05-09

Comment

UGA-N

59.330

The big thing with seasonality is that you buy before the seasonal impact takes place. Technically, the chart looks very good but on seasonality, he is expecting there will be some weakness. The one thing not factored in, will people be making adjustments on their driving habits this year. Would start getting out of this position now.

2008-05-09

Comment

Bear Creek Mining

BCM-X

7.150

Silver is used in industry so on a seasonality basis, it will probably go with the economy. This would mean it would probably pick up in the October time frame into May when it will then start to slack off.

2008-05-09

Comment

0.020

This is a good time to get your money in. Most gains occur in this 6 month favourable period (now-May). October 28th is buy date. Not a lot of gains occur in unfavourable period.

2007-10-26

WEAK BUY

Tim Hortons

THI-T

36.050

Now’s a good time to get into the market. A good sector. Rescission proof. Positive revenue. Going to do well from here. Should do quite well. Would buy at this price.

2007-10-26

BUY on WEAKNESS

41.420

Has done quite well. The volume levels have tapered off. Could still do well at this time although it’s not in a sweet spot. Would pick it up around $38.

2007-10-26

Comment

0.020

Seasonality Currency: The U.S dollar should drop until December, but in January it will come back up. Think the Canadian dollar has climaxed.

2007-10-26

WEAK BUY

Uranium One Inc.

UUU-T

12.160

Christmas is a good time to buy uranium. It will drop off around May like other commodities. Doing well because of green reasons. Long term uranium is fantastic.

2007-10-26

BUY

Rona Inc

RON-T

20.870

Has been bouncing around. In a very competitive field. If it drops below $20 because of increased volume it will be a bad situation. Stock increases around year-end. Would pick it up at this level, sell it in January.

2007-10-26

TOP PICK