| TOP PICK | | Petro-Can | PCA-T | 47.240 | Hugely undervalued. His model price is $89.85, a 93% positive differential. Trading at the same valuation as if oil was $25. | 2008-08-06 | |
| TOP PICK | | Morgan Stanley | MS-N | 43.180 | His model price is $70.13, a positive differential of 62%. A very mispriced stock. If you are going to play financials, this is probably the one you should pick. | 2008-08-06 | |
| TOP PICK | | Pfizer Inc | PFE-N | 19.430 | Earnings where fantastic. Yield of 6.6%. | 2008-08-06 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Teck Cominco Ltd. (B) | TCK.B-T | 42.730 | (A Top Pick July 27/07. Down 3%.) Great Buy if it gets down to $28 and if it reaches $51, he would take some profits. | 2008-08-06 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Valero Energy Corp | VLO-N | 34.470 | (A Top Pick July 27/07. Down 51%.) Everything has gone wrong for the refiners including refining capacity in the majors. As a value manager, his big concern would be a Value Trap. Once this one dropped its market cap on the S&P 500, he dropped its weighting. Still has value and great earnings. | 2008-08-06 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Lowes Companies Inc. | LOW-N | 21.240 | (A Top Pick July 27/07. Down 22%.) Consumer discretionary has been a very hard-hit area. Still in his top 10. | 2008-08-06 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Western Union Co. | WU-N | 26.950 | No mis-pricing here. His model price is $8.43. A negative 59% differential. Basically have no equity and the business requires little to no capital. There is no balance sheet there to really protect them. | 2008-08-06 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Shaw Communication (B) | SJR.B-T | 21.940 | This never shows up well for him. Valued in a different way such as EBITDA or growth in cell phones. His model price is $16.73, a negative differential of 24%. | 2008-08-06 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Johnson & Johnson | JNJ-N | 71.070 | Over time, the model price has been coming down. He has a model price of $60.18, a -14% differential. | 2008-08-06 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Mastercard Inc. | MA-N | 232.000 | Based on their last quarterly report, his model price is $113.27. This gives a -52% differential. | 2008-08-06 | |
| Comment | | Biovail Corp. | BVF-T | 10.700 | Hasn't been in his portfolio for several years. Plagued with bad news. Just needs some good news somewhere. Model price is $21.27, a positive 100% differential. He is seeing a little bit of traction in this group. | 2008-08-06 | |
| BUY | | Agrium | AGU-T | 87.160 | Model price is $109.36. (This model price is updated daily on his website so you can track it on your own.) | 2008-08-06 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Potash Corp of Saskatchewan | POT-T | 189.300 | This has been overvalued for quite some time. The model price is $159.39, a negative differential of 11%. | 2008-08-06 | |
| BUY | | CAE Inc | CAE-T | 10.860 | Has a model price of $14.21, 33% positive differential. Model price has been falling since January. A lot of good news regarding contracts signed but no follow through in terms of earnings or positive model price. | 2008-08-06 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Bank of Nova Scotia | BNS-T | 51.390 | No mis-pricing in any of the 6 Canadian banks. In this case it has a model price of $50.07, -1%. Ranking of the others gives National (NA-T) + 27%, CIBC (CM-T) +24%, Bank of Montreal +21%, Royal (RY-T) +10% and Toronto Dominion (TD-T) +1%. | 2008-08-06 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Cameco Corporation | CCO-T | 33.960 | His model price is almost right on the current price and has a -3% differential. Earnings have been coming down. | 2008-08-06 | |
| Comment | | Duke Energy | DUK-N | 17.440 | Model price is $19.73, a 15% positive differential. There is more value elsewhere. | 2008-08-06 | |
| BUY | | Oilexco Inc | OIL-T | 15.590 | He has a model price of $29.33, an 80% positive differential. Balance sheet is growing like mad. | 2008-08-06 | |
| BUY | | Encana Corp | ECA-T | 73.910 | Model price is $79.65, about 8% positive differential. | 2008-08-06 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Fannie Mae | FNM-N | 11.600 | The model price is $4.26 using a March balance sheet. Not a private enterprise company but is actually government owned so doesn't follow the rules like everybody else. Has never issued a statement for the last 3 years. | 2008-08-06 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Sunlife Financial | SLF-T | 39.490 | He has a model price of $41.50 giving a 6% positive differential. Feels that financials are dead money at best. | 2008-08-06 | |
| BUY | | Canadian Natural Rsrcs | CNQ-T | 79.280 | The model price is $94.14, almost a 25% positive differential. Great opportunity for people that don't have a position. | 2008-08-06 | |
| BUY | | Suncor Energy Inc | SU-T | 54.300 | His model price is $63.88, a positive differential of 20%. Very rarely, over the last 5 years, do you get a chance to buy this below its model price. Great price. | 2008-08-06 | |
| BUY | | Husky Energy | HSE-T | 45.180 | Didn't have a big pullback, but still a great opportunity. The model price is $68.36. A 54% positive differential. | 2008-08-06 | |
| DON'T BUY | | SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. | SNC-T | 57.200 | On an asset basis, model price is only $28.64 giving a -47% differential. Not a pure infrastructure play because of their ownership of highway #427. | 2008-08-06 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Tim Hortons | THI-T | 29.740 | Has always been overvalued. Model price is $26.36, a -6% differential. There is a lot more value elsewhere. | 2008-08-06 | |
| TOP PICK | | Petro-Can | PCA-T | 58.590 | Very compelling. Model price is $100. Huge earnings revisions. 73 .5% positive differential. | 2008-06-11 | |
| TOP PICK | | Pfizer Inc | PFE-N | 17.550 | Model price has been decreasing over the last 9 months, but not all that much. Thinks it will go down to $15.75 but he sees in setting up as a huge rally in healthcare related stocks in Q4 or Q1 of 09. Has an 86% positive differential. | 2008-06-11 | |
| TOP PICK | | Marathon Oil | MRO-N | 50.970 | Probably has the largest component of all the integrateds. Model price is $78.68, a 55% positive differential. Continuing positive earnings estimates. | 2008-06-11 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Teck Cominco Ltd. (B) | TCK.B-T | 48.040 | (A Top Pick July 27/07. Down 8%.) His model price is $74.70, a 57% positive differential. | 2008-06-11 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Valero Energy Corp | VLO-N | 44.680 | (A Top Pick July 27/07. Down 39%.) Refiners are caught with demand for gasoline going down and the price going up. They also have to buy crude. Reduced his weighting from 5% to 1.25%. Model price is $79, a 77% positive differential. | 2008-06-11 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Lowes Companies Inc. | LOW-N | 22.850 | (A Top Pick July 27/07. Down 22%.) The model price is $33.43, a 43% positive differential. Expect it will stay around the current price until there is some easing in the economy. | 2008-06-11 | |
| Comment | | Agrium | AGU-T | 102.000 | Comes up well in a quantitative sense. His model price was $94.02 before the announcement of their big earnings. | 2008-06-11 | |
| Comment | | Penn West Energy Trust | PWT.UN-T | 34.340 | Have no trusts in his portfolio. Trusts will have to convert back into corporations. When that happens, they have a haircut of about 30%. His model price is $51.37, and upside of about 51%. | 2008-06-11 | |
| BUY | | Viterra Inc | VT-T | 14.050 | The model price of $17.11, a 26% positive differential. | 2008-06-11 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Potash Corp of Saskatchewan | POT-T | 227.330 | Market price is way ahead of the fundamentals but the fundamentals keep on improving in this one. In Jan/08 the model price would have been around $80. Today it is $145.78. Earnings have exploded but the stock price has exploded with it. | 2008-06-11 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | | Oilexco Inc | OIL-T | 17.560 | Model price is $26.05, a 51% positive differential. Main complaint is that he doesn't see any massive earnings revisions as he sees in Nexen (NXY-T) or Talisman (TLM-T). He'll wait for a dip before buying. | 2008-06-11 | |
| DON'T BUY | | FMC Technologies Inc. | FTI-N | 75.400 | Model price is $52.89, a -30% differential. | 2008-06-11 | |
| DON'T BUY | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Canadian Banks: As of now they are dead money. If you go for yield, you are going to get slaughtered. Canadian Banks currently are the most expensive banks in the world. | 2008-06-11 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Encana Corp | ECA-T | 93.360 | Model price is $85.90, a -7.5% differential. If it ever has a substantial correction, he will be into it again. | 2008-06-11 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Petrobank Energy and Resources | PBG-T | 54.000 | Earnings have been coming up a bit. Mean estimate is $3 with next year's at $3.74. His model price is $52.34, which is a -3% or 4%. | 2008-06-11 | |
| Comment | | Alimentation Couche-Tard (B) | ATD.B-T | 12.710 | Thinks this one will go to about $10.70, which would be an interesting buying opportunity. His model price is still above the stock price, but earnings estimates are coming down. His model value is $22.82. | 2008-06-11 | |
| HOLD | | FNX Mining Company | FNX-T | 22.250 | He sees big negative revisions. Probably due to the price of nickel. His model price is $36.16, a 58% positive differential. Feels $19.50 is a low on this security. | 2008-06-11 | |
| DON'T BUY | | United Technologies | UTX-N | 66.650 | (Market Call Minute.) Model price is $61.70, a -8%. | 2008-06-11 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Bank of Nova Scotia | BNS-T | 50.170 | (Market Call Minute.) Model price is $53.29. Only a 4% positive differential. | 2008-06-11 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Alcoa | AA-N | 39.320 | (Market Call Minute.) The model price is $43.87, a 3% positive differential. | 2008-06-11 | |
| BUY | | Sherrit | S-T | 14.090 | (Market Call Minute.) Model price is $25.83, an 80% positive differential. | 2008-06-11 | |
| Comment | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Market: - Not sure the market has bottomed yet.
Financials: - His computer models are reflecting a serious deterioration in earnings estimates on US financials. Model price has gone substantially below some of the big banks. Huge headwinds going forward, so trade, not Buy, Canadian and US financials.
Energy: - Most mispriced sector in the market. There have been substantial increases in earnings estimates in the last 2 weeks. Values, especially Canadian, have not reflected the increases. | 2008-05-08 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Lehman Brothers Holdings | LEH-N | 42.930 | (A Top Pick May 2/07. Down 42%.) Still has a model price of $75.31. That's a 72% positive differential. He would trade this now as opposed to Buy and Hold. Be cautious with this group. | 2008-05-08 | |
| TOP PICK | | Petro-Can | PCA-T | 55.880 | His model price is now $92.15, a 70% positive differential. This is one of the cheapest oils out there. | 2008-05-08 | |
| TOP PICK | | Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold | FCX-N | 118.070 | This has made it into his Top 10 of his US 50 fund it has to be in the top 100 of the S&P 500 by market cap. He is surprised that it made it. It is a materials (copper) company. His model price is $146.68, which is a 29% positive differential. | 2008-05-08 | |
| TOP PICK | | Marathon Oil | MRO-N | 52.910 | Has a model price of $77.93, a 50% positive differential. Has a larger refining business than most of the others. Very cheap. | 2008-05-08 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Pfizer Inc | PFE-N | 19.970 | (A Top Pick May 2/07. Down 20%.) Still in his Top 10. His model price is $34.72, a 74% positive differential. | 2008-05-08 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | National Bank of Canada | NA-T | 52.330 | (A Top Pick May 2/07. Down 12%.) This is the one bank that has kind of held in there. Never had the disasters of the CIBC (CM-T) or Bank of Montreal (BMO-T). His model price is $71.44, a 36% positive differential. | 2008-05-08 | |
| Comment | | Kinross Gold | K-T | 20.540 | His model price is $20.55, a 6.6% upside. Would prefer Barrick (ABX-T) to this one. | 2008-05-08 | |
| BUY | | Barrick Gold | ABX-T | 41.000 | His favourite in golds. His model price is $46.70, a 20% positive differential. | 2008-05-08 | |
| BUY | | UnitedHealth Group Inc | UNH-N | 33.000 | Has come close to buying this a couple of times. He has a model priced at $40.89, a 25% positive differential. It comes close, but he has not bought it yet. | 2008-05-08 | |
| SELL | | Valero Energy Corp | VLO-N | 46.270 | Refineries are really having a tough time here. His model price is $79.26, a 66% positive differential. He still has it but it is no longer in his Top 10. There is going to come a time when these companies will make nothing but money. Consider changing to Canadian companies. (See his Top Picks.) | 2008-05-08 | |
| BUY | | Gerdau Ameristeel Corp | GNA-T | 16.290 | This company is not big enough to make it into his portfolio. However, the fundamentals are quite good. Based on their December balance sheet, his model prices $24.76, a positive differential of about 54%. Any pull back to $14.50 would be a great buying opportunity. | 2008-05-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Pro Shares Ultra Short Mid Cap 400 ETF | MZZ-A | 52.600 | Q: Jean-Francois Tardiff had this ETF Short as a Top Pick because of his views on the US economy. What do you think? A: He doesn't see it as a risk/reward. In 2002, he bought this index for some US clients and he still holds it. It is currently around 846 (?) and if it ever shot up to around 1100 (?) he would agree. | 2008-05-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Merrill Lynch & Co (US) | MER-N | 47.940 | His model price is $35.94. That is a -26% differential. Fundamentals have deteriorated. | 2008-05-08 | |
| Comment | | Staples | SPLS-Q | 21.440 | The model price is $28.46, a positive 30% differential. Thinks this would be consumer discretionary, which is not the favourite of most portfolio managers, but this is done very well to hang in there. Not cheap enough to get into his portfolios but doing a very good job in a hostile retail environment. | 2008-05-08 | |
| BUY | | Talisman Energy | TLM-T | 23.200 | This one is now in his Top 10. It has had a huge (underline that) boost in earnings estimates. He has a model price of $31.11, a 39% positive differential. | 2008-05-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Precision Drilling Corp. | PD.UN-T | 27.670 | This is still in the trust structure and he does not allow trusts. His model price is $41, which would be a 58% positive differential but with all these companies they do have to convert, eventually, back to the corporate structure. There will be a 30% haircut somewhere. | 2008-05-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | | AbitibiBowater Inv. | ABH-N | 10.480 | Told a caller a couple of months ago to “head for the hills” when it was at around $20 something. Has now dropped into the $9 range. His model price is $3.73, a -60% differential. | 2008-05-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Cameco Corporation | CCO-T | 40.760 | His model price is $37.21, about an -8% differential. | 2008-05-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Oilexco Inc | OIL-T | 16.560 | His model price is $24.87, which is a 50% positive differential. It would be great to see some upside earnings revisions but he is expecting a negative revision. | 2008-05-08 | |
| SELL | | Bank of America | BAC-N | 37.330 | Model price of $36.89, a -3% differential. Thinks the US banks have a big head wind. Once we get through the credit crisis, (he thinks the federal reserve is letting inflation go) and once we get over this phase he expects a substantial increase in interest rates. | 2008-05-08 | |
| SELL | | Tellabs | TLAB-Q | 5.440 | The model price is $6.09 giving it an upside of 9%. He probably has sold his position. Expecting severe negative revisions. | 2008-05-08 | |
| BUY | | Yamana Gold Inc. | YRI-T | 14.920 | The model price is $21.07, around a 50% upside. | 2008-05-08 | |
| Comment | | ConocoPhillips | COP-N | 89.450 | Still in his Top 10. He has a model price of $128.41, a 46% positive differential. | 2008-05-08 | |
| Comment | | Teck Cominco Ltd. (B) | TCK.B-T | 49.120 | He has a model price of $72.46, a 50% upside. Thinks the high would be about $49.70 and if it broke through that he would Buy and use $49.70 as a Stop. | 2008-05-08 | |
| BUY | | Viterra Inc | VT-T | 14.120 | His model price is $16.91, a 23% positive differential. | 2008-05-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | | El Paso Corp | EP-N | 19.120 | His model price is $15.33. A -16% differential. Sees a lot more value elsewhere. | 2008-05-08 | |
| Comment | | Alcoa | AA-N | 39.650 | He has a model price of $41.23, a positive 8% differential. He thinks the high on this one will probably be about $42.20 and if it broke up through there he would use $42.20 as a Stop. | 2008-05-08 | |
| Comment | | Potash Corp of Saskatchewan | POT-T | 202.650 | He has a model price of $136.54, which is a -32% differential. This is a situation where the stock price is anticipating the model price jumping up. Prefers Agrium (AGU-T) which he thinks is better value. | 2008-05-08 | |
| Comment | | Manulife Financial | MFC-T | 36.900 | (Market Call Minute.) His model price is $38.88, a -1% differential. | 2008-05-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Sandisk Corp | SNDK-Q | 29.200 | (Market Call Minute.) Model price of $32.04, a positive 9% differential. He would look for value elsewhere. | 2008-05-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Canadian Pacific Rail | CP-T | 74.480 | (Market Call Minute.) Model price is $66.21 giving it a -8% differential. | 2008-05-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | | CanWest Global Comm. | CGS-T | 4.030 | (Market Call Minute.) A model price of $3.76. A -8% differential. | 2008-05-08 | |
| TOP PICK | | Morgan Stanley | MS-N | 48.880 | The model price is $82.29, a 68% positive differential. When they reported earnings, all metrics on businesses they are in, they beat Goldman Sachs (GS-N). (Brokers are not easy to hold in this period!) | 2008-04-03 | |
| TOP PICK | | Marathon Oil | MRO-N | 47.800 | Likes the cheap energy stocks in the US. His model price is $73.18, a 54% positive differential. | 2008-04-03 | |
| TOP PICK | | Petro-Can | PCA-T | 44.910 | His model price is $79.25, a 75% positive differential. No one cares about this one. Not sure when it will get recognized. | 2008-04-03 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Husky Energy | HSE-T | 41.760 | (A Top Pick Apr 12/07. No change.) Earnings are so great and they're going on the balance sheet making the balance sheet larger so it's in proportion to the earnings. His model price is $58.35, a 42% positive differential. | 2008-04-03 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Goldman Sachs | GS-N | 176.530 | (A Top Pick Apr 12/07. Down 14%.) Has survived and will continue to survive going forward. His model price is $192.80, a 9% differential. If the financials turn around, this will be the main guy going forward. | 2008-04-03 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Inmet Mining | IMN-T | 83.900 | (A Top Pick Apr 12/07. Up 27.3%.) The model price is $125.44, a 55% positive differential. Still a Buy. | 2008-04-03 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Oilexco Inc | OIL-T | 13.140 | He has a model price of $24.38 giving it an 86% upside. The only issue that he has with this one is a plethora of good news but never sees the earnings estimates going up. Any pullback in oil prices and get could get back to $11 quite easily. Any positive news in oil or the company and your upside is $17.44. Risk/reward is not good enough for him. | 2008-04-03 | |
| BUY | | ConocoPhillips | COP-N | 78.380 | Huge value in this one. His model price is $119.49 giving it a positive differential of 52%. | 2008-04-03 | |
| Comment | | Biovail Corp. | BVF-T | 11.350 | This stock has lots of value, however bad news just keeps coming in. Model price is $24.36 but there are constant downward revisions in earnings. A lot of fat there. If you have tight stops, stick out your hand. If it broke down to $10.36, it will drop to $8.50. | 2008-04-03 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Thomson Reuters Corp | TRI-T | 36.600 | The model price is $34.09 giving it a negative differential of 5%, which is an improvement. He has been bearish on this stock for over 5 years. His only proviso is that the Reuters acquisition has not as yet been included in his numbers. | 2008-04-03 | |
| Comment | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | US Financials: - He is just writing a newsletter on this subject and it can be accessed at http://www.stockchase.com/www.ackerfinley.com for information. There are a lot of distressed US financials with an amazing amount of small banks that have been crushed and looked like very good Buys. | 2008-04-03 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Bank of Nova Scotia | BNS-T | 46.740 | Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T), Royal Bank (RY-T) and Toronto Dominion (TD-T) are probably the most expensive banks in North America and possibly even the European banks. The upside in his model price is in single digits. The most upside to his model prices are National Bank (NA-T), CIBC (CM-T) and Bank of Montreal (BMO-T). | 2008-04-03 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Royal Bank | RY-T | 48.660 | Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T), Royal Bank (RY-T) and Toronto Dominion (TD-T) are probably the most expensive banks in North America and possibly even the European banks. The upside in his model price is in single digits. The most upside to his model prices are National Bank (NA-T), CIBC (CM-T) and Bank of Montreal (BMO-T). | 2008-04-03 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Toronto Dominion | TD-T | 64.000 | Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T), Royal Bank (RY-T) and Toronto Dominion (TD-T) are probably the most expensive banks in North America and possibly even the European banks. The upside in his model price is in single digits. The most upside to his model prices are National Bank (NA-T), CIBC (CM-T) and Bank of Montreal (BMO-T). | 2008-04-03 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Trans Canada Corp | TRP-T | 36.090 | Utilities on both sides of the border are very overvalued. His model price is $31.90, which is a 12% negative differential. | 2008-04-03 | |
| Comment | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Gold: - If you are in gold stocks, you are playing with fire. They are so overvalued that it boggles his mind. It's like uranium was over a year ago where everybody was jumping in. He has only one gold stock left in his portfolio, Yamana (YRI-T). He has owned quite a few gold stocks and has made money on them. | 2008-04-03 | |
| Comment | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Silver: - Costs to mine gold and silver are going up exponentially. This is a true definition of inflation. Only looks for mispriced assets. | 2008-04-03 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Peabody Energy Corp | BTU-N | 55.190 | His model price is $39.96, a negative 24% differential. Coal is one of the most overvalued sectors in the US. | 2008-04-03 | |
| SELL | | Yahoo! | YHOO-Q | 28.130 | The model price is $12.48, a negative differential of 56%. You also have to worry about Microsoft leaving the table. | 2008-04-03 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Kraft Foods Inc | KFT-N | 31.200 | His model price is $26.87, a negative differential of 15%. | 2008-04-03 | |
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