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| Brian Acker, CA of Acker Finley Inc. | |
|---|---|
| Investment Style | North American Large Cap value using quantitative analysis |
| 181 University Ave | |
| Suite 1316 | |
| Toronto ON | |
| M5H 3M7 | |
| 1 (416) 777-9005 | |
| Brian Acker, CA's website | |
| Toll Free: 1 (888) 514-9136 | |
| Fax: 1 (416) 777-2096 | |
| info@ackerfinley.com |
| TOP PICK | Intel | INTC-Q | 19.680 | Has a model price of $29.66, a 49% positive differential. | 2010-02-03 | ||
| TOP PICK | Pfizer Inc | PFE-N | 18.620 | Model price of $29.40, a 53% positive differential. | 2010-02-03 | ||
| TOP PICK | CGI Group (A) | GIB.A-T | 14.700 | The model price is 20.79, a 42% positive differential. Earnings estimates have been going up again so his model price has been rising. | 2010-02-03 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Medtronic Inc | MDT-N | 44.000 | (A Top Pick Feb 24/09. Up 30.52%.) | 2010-02-03 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Microsoft | MSFT-Q | 28.630 | (A Top Pick Feb 24/09. Up 67.84%.) | 2010-02-03 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Petro-Canada | PCA-T | 45.500 | (A Top Pick Feb 24/09. Up 76.35%.) Merged with Suncor (SU-T) and he holds their shares. | 2010-02-03 | ||
| Comment | Goldcorp Inc | G-T | 37.270 | If it came down to $33, it would go into his portfolio. His model price is $35.12. He would treat it as a trading stock and if it got up to $45 would let it go. | 2010-02-03 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Fortis Inc. | FTS-T | 28.260 | His model price is $23.87, a -16% differential. Although it has 4% yield, yield is not valuation. When you go for yield, you are paying huge amounts of valuation. | 2010-02-03 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Trans Canada Corp | TRP-T | 34.520 | He has a model price of $31.91, about 7% to high. A yield story, not of valuation story. | 2010-02-03 | ||
| DON'T BUY | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | US banks. This is not the time to be getting into US banks. Wouldn't touch them with a 10-foot pole. It will take a long while for them to get back. | 2010-02-03 | ||
| SELL | Rogers Communcations (B) | RCI.B-T | 33.050 | His model price is $28.04, a -16% discount. Very expensive here. | 2010-02-03 | ||
| Comment | Loblaw Companies Ltd | L-T | 36.390 | His model price is $39.15, a 9.6% positive differential. Thinks it holds here for a while but doesn't expect any great gains. Likes the sector and his #1 pick would be Metro (MRU.A-T). | 2010-02-03 | ||
| PARTIAL BUY | Qualcom | QCOM-Q | 39.630 | Currently sitting at his model price of $39.40 and, if he were going to buy it, this is where it would be. | 2010-02-03 | ||
| SELL | Fairfax Financial | FFH-T | 369.700 | His model price is $300, which is a -18% differential. | 2010-02-03 | ||
| DON'T BUY | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | ETFs. He doesn't do these. They are trading vehicles and you can’t do valuation on them like you can on individual stocks. Commodities have to be rolled over every month. | 2010-02-03 | ||
| Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Uses consensus earnings to judge stock earnings. In general they get it right. If the analysts are all wrong, they do a relative ranging and the best come to the top. His model prices are not a target price. The composition of the balance sheet goes into the model price including interest rates, earnings consensus, and so on and each night they calculate a model price. Where you make your money is feelings and emotion and they buy on dips. | 2009-04-21 | ||
| Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | We are in wonderful shape in the balance sheet area. Q4 last year we went through systemic failure. | 2009-04-21 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Petro-Canada | PCA-T | 36.580 | (Top Pick Apr 3’08 Down 17%) Still makes it into their portfolio. Will be re-evaluated when Suncor deal completes. | 2009-04-21 | ||
| DON'T BUY | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Gold: They don’t invest in gold as there is no balance sheet. Golds are falling. Will buy when the stocks get back in their buying range. | 2009-04-21 | ||
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| SELL | Shoppers Drug Mart Corp | SC-T | 45.010 | 45.61 is model price and target is 2-1/2 target. It was way over valued. Couchtard he likes, based on balance sheet and owns. | 2009-04-21 | ||
| SELL | Manulife Financial | MFC-T | 19.800 | Did own. Model price of 21.95. It followed the market. Slow and steady. Doesn’t know if it will qualify at the end of the month for them. Would trade financials rather than hold them. | 2009-04-21 | ||
| WAIT | Teck Resources Ltd. (B) | TCK.B-T | 12.470 | Model price about $14-15. Got a little leeway on their debt today. If it goes higher than $12, it takes some risk out of their stock. Could be in their portfolio by end of week. Debt is not insurmountable. | 2009-04-21 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Dell Computers | DELL-Q | 10.550 | Right on it’s model price of $10.60. They have other tech names, e.g. Microsoft or Oracle. | 2009-04-21 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Franco-Nevada Corp. | FNV-T | 24.750 | Model price of $9.50. Wouldn’t touch with 10 Foot pole Kinross is coming back nicely. | 2009-04-21 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Talisman Energy | TLM-T | 14.480 | Model $14.19. | 2009-04-21 | ||
| TOP PICK | Medtronic Inc | MDT-N | 30.560 | Model $42.48. | 2009-04-21 | ||
| TOP PICK | Oracle | ORCL-Q | 19.530 | Model $22.17. | 2009-04-21 | ||
| TOP PICK | Amgen Inc. | AMGN-Q | 46.090 | Model $59.79. Drugs have been showing up. Get it before the numbers come in. Market selling off in light of expected earnings. | 2009-04-21 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Marathon Oil | MRO-N | 29.300 | (Top Pick Apr 3/08 Down 40%) Oil. No bullish estimates out there. Model price of $37, 30% upside. Had it for some time. Are still buyers. | 2009-04-21 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Morgan Stanley | MS-N | 24.650 | (Top Pick Apr 3/08 Down 50%) Sold. Model price of only $13. No upside to model price any more. | 2009-04-21 | ||
| SELL | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | American Financials: Trading above their model prices. It’s about the debt. Citi has 360 Billion on their balance sheet. Why should taxpayer pay a penny more? How do we judge a company that accepts such a large amount of cash and then turns around and reports these numbers? This is not an investment, but a warrant. Same for Bank of America. Nationalization is about stockholders getting zero and debt holders taking zero. Run, not walk, away from these securities. | 2009-04-21 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Lowes Companies Inc. | LOW-N | 20.550 | Model price of Lowes $24.17. Better than Home Depot. Everyone should have a sell strategy for everything. | 2009-04-21 | ||
| VAGUE | Philip Morris International | PM-N | 36.890 | Model price of 42.46. There are stocks with greater upside to model price. | 2009-04-21 | ||
| BUY | Valero Energy Corp | VLO-N | 19.870 | His model price is $34.87, a 75% positive differential. | 2009-02-24 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Nexen Inc | NXY-T | 16.460 | He has a model price of $14.40, a negative 12.5% differential. | 2009-02-24 | ||
| SELL | Sandisk Corp | SNDK-Q | 9.410 | Model price is $1.25, a negative differential of 86%. | 2009-02-24 | ||
| TOP PICK | Petro-Canada | PCA-T | 26.380 | (A Top Pick Feb 27/08. Down 46%.) One of the cheapest oils out there. Model price is $37.39, a 41.7% positive differential. 3% yield. | 2009-02-24 | ||
| Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Canadian $: Very bullish on the Canadian$. It's a debt to GDP story. Canada has gone into this situation well positioned. | 2009-02-24 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Goldcorp Inc | G-T | 35.030 | Right now, gold stocks are too expensive. On this company, when the price goes back to about $20, that would be the time to buy. His model price is $17.02 a -51%. | 2009-02-24 | ||
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| Comment | Time Warner Inc | TWX-N | 7.880 | His model price is $7.70 a negative 2% differential. If you own and there is a bounce, he would sell. | 2009-02-24 | ||
| TOP PICK | Medtronic Inc | MDT-N | 34.520 | He has a model price of $41.29 giving it a 21% positive differential. Just reported greater earnings. 2% yield. | 2009-02-24 | ||
| TOP PICK | Microsoft | MSFT-Q | 17.170 | $23.31 is the model price, a 35% positive differential. Have $40 billion in cash and no debt. Yielding 3%. | 2009-02-24 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Pfizer Inc | PFE-N | 13.590 | (A Top Pick Feb 27/08. Down 40%.) | 2009-02-24 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Morgan Stanley | MS-N | 22.070 | (A Top Pick Feb 27/08.) Sold in January at $21 for a 100% loss. | 2009-02-24 | ||
| TOP PICK | Potash Corp of Saskatchewan | POT-T | 93.000 | His model price is $160. An 88% upside. | 2008-12-16 | ||
| TOP PICK | Pfizer Inc | PFE-N | 17.360 | His model price is $24.87, a 50% upside. $24 billion in cash. | 2008-12-16 | ||
| TOP PICK | ConocoPhillips | COP-N | 54.130 | His model prices $63.80, a 23% positive differential. Trading at 82% of Book. Has probably never been this low. | 2008-12-16 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | CitiGroup | C-N | 8.230 | (A Top Pick Dec 20/07. Down 73%.) Sold in April. If you own, continue to hold. | 2008-12-16 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Morgan Stanley | MS-N | 16.130 | (A Top Pick Dec 20/07. Down 71%.) His model price is $31.41. 128% upside. | 2008-12-16 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Teck Resources Ltd. (B) | TCK.B-T | 5.980 | (A Top Pick Dec 20/07. Down 82%.) Still qualifies in his model and the price is $28, a 395% upside. | 2008-12-16 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Hudbay Minerals Inc. | HBM-T | 3.380 | He has a model price of $2.87, which is a negative 14.5% discount. However, based on the September balance sheet, closed above $7.21 it would be a raving Buy. | 2008-12-16 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Bank of Montreal | BMO-T | 30.350 | 7-year bonds are at 8.6%. Even if you are getting this percent and you think you did well, once there is a recovery chances are they will be called. He would rather look at something that gives infinite rates of return which is basically the common stock. | 2008-12-16 | ||
| DON'T BUY | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Canadian Banks: He sees nothing that gets him excited. National Bank has upside of 38%, Bank of Montreal is 10%, CIBC is 0.8%, TD is 0.4%, Royal is negative 2% and BNS is negative 3.5%. | 2008-12-16 | ||
| DON'T BUY | National Bank of Canada | NA-T | 27.720 | The model price is $39.17, a 38% positive differential. Wouldn't buy it just yet. | 2008-12-16 | ||
| BUY | Viterra Inc | VT-T | 8.270 | His model price is $12.11, a 46% positive differential. Market thinks it is going to earn $.34. | 2008-12-16 | ||
| Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Gold: Has go a lot higher. A large portion of the US debt has to be monetized. Expects the US$ to roll over. | 2008-12-16 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Bank of America | BAC-N | 15.100 | The model price is $13.77, a -2.5% differential. | 2008-12-16 | ||
| BUY | Petro-Canada | PCA-T | 28.990 | His model price is $46.42. A 68% upside. Cheap. | 2008-12-16 | ||
| WAIT | Silver Wheaton | SLW-T | 7.090 | Speculation. If it broke through $8.40, which would tell him the balance sheet is okay, he would be a big buyer. | 2008-12-16 | ||
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| DON'T BUY | Yamana Gold Inc. | YRI-T | 8.380 | His only problem with this is that it has a weak balance sheet. Recently did an equity issue, which he applauds, but it still doesn't get him to where he wants to see it. His model price is $10.60, a 31% positive differential. | 2008-12-16 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Morgan Stanley | MS-N | 38.710 | (A Top Pick Sept 20/07. Down 43%.) His model price is $67.71, a 74% positive differential. Thinks that this one will make it. | 2008-09-11 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Merrill Lynch & Co (US) | MER-N | 19.430 | (A Top Pick Sept 20/07. Down 73%.) Sold his holdings on January 31st at $56.22. Not sure if this one will make it. His model price is $7.00. | 2008-09-11 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Home Depot | HD-N | 29.500 | (A Top Pick Sept 20/07. Down 16%.) Consumer discretionary. Didn't make a lot of money off this one, but did make money off of Lowes (LOW-N). His model price is $30.66, a 5% differential. Sold his holdings. | 2008-09-11 | ||
| Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Gold: Negative on gold bullion. Gold is falling in all three major currencies, the yen, the euro and the US$. Having gold fall means that financial assets (even the money you have in your pocket) is getting an uptick and getting more valuable. He needs to see some other things in place, but it indicates de-inflation. | 2008-09-11 | ||
| BUY | Barrick Gold | ABX-T | 28.680 | His model price is $39.34, a positive 33% differential. Thinks all the gold stocks are due for a bounce as they have gone down a long ways. | 2008-09-11 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Canadian Oil Sands Trust | COS.UN-T | 42.670 | The problem with this company from a valuation stand is that it is very expensive. Expect distributions will be funded by debt. He would much prefer Suncor (SU-T), which is much more mispriced. | 2008-09-11 | ||
| BUY | Suncor Energy Inc | SU-T | 47.870 | Model price is $62.40, a 33% positive differential. | 2008-09-11 | ||
| BUY | Petrobank Energy and Resources | PBG-T | 40.700 | Model price of $$53.07, a 30% positive differential. | 2008-09-11 | ||
| BUY | Encana Corp | ECA-T | 70.820 | Thinks it is positive that they are going to split the company. His model price is $76.97. That's a 10% positive differential. | 2008-09-11 | ||
| TOP PICK | Pfizer Inc | PFE-N | 18.390 | Value manager’s dream but never has done anything. He has a model price of $30.26. 66% positive differential. | 2008-09-11 | ||
| TOP PICK | Occidental Petroleum Corp | OXY-N | 69.860 | Model price is $113.78, a 63% positive differential. | 2008-09-11 | ||
| TOP PICK | Petro-Canada | PCA-T | 40.390 | With the fall of the dollar in terms of purchasing power, a lot of the integrated oils never got the up tick in terms of valuation. As oil prices are coming down, the companies have to get their costs under control, which will give them the valuation up tick. | 2008-09-11 | ||
| BUY | Oilexco Inc | OIL-X | 11.890 | (Market Call Minute.) Great opportunity here. Model price is $28.40. | 2008-09-11 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Research In Motion | RIM-T | 117.880 | Really scary. His model price is $53.44, a -52% differential. One misstep and there will be significant downside. | 2008-09-11 | ||
| PARTIAL BUY | Canadian Natural Rsrcs | CNQ-T | 81.720 | He has a model price of $90.34. If oil falls, this could go to $74 and he would be a buyer at that time. You could buy some now and more at $74. | 2008-09-11 | ||
| Comment | Eaton Corp. | ETN-N | 71.170 | At a valuation low going back to about 13 years. His model price is $81, a 15.8% differential. Thinks it will hold around here. You need economic growth in order for this company to move forward. | 2008-09-11 | ||
| DON'T BUY | American International Group | AIG-N | 17.550 | Supposed to come out with a plan on September 25 on how they are going to fix things. Doesn't know if they will make it to September 25. This was the largest insurance company in the world and they got involved with the credit default swap market, writing contracts as if it were free money. $38.22 is his model price. | 2008-09-11 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Goldcorp Inc | G-T | 27.390 | His model price is $27.52, so it's bang on its model price. Barrick (ABX-T) would be a better buy. | 2008-09-11 | ||
| BUY | Archer Daniels Midland Company | ADM-N | 22.610 | Just a little over Book Value at $21. This is a good time to cumulate shares. | 2008-09-11 | ||
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| BUY | Agrium | AGU-T | 79.550 | Great entry point. Model price is $101.72, a 31% upside. | 2008-09-11 | ||
| Comment | Viterra Inc | VT-T | 10.660 | He has a model price of $14.79. That's a 42% positive differential. It is at an important type of level for it to hold. If you bought and it went to $12.30, he would be a seller. | 2008-09-11 | ||
| DON'T BUY | BCE Inc. | BCE-T | 39.130 | (Market Call Minute.) This will get taken over at $42.75. An arbitrage play. | 2008-09-11 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Canadian Western Bank | CWB-T | 21.850 | (Market Call Minute.) No real value in the banks. His model price is $22.53. 5% upside is not worth it. | 2008-09-11 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Cisco | CSCO-Q | 23.050 | (Market Call Minute.) Model price of $24.80. 5% positive differential is not enough. | 2008-09-11 | ||
| TOP PICK | Petro-Canada | PCA-T | 47.240 | Hugely undervalued. His model price is $89.85, a 93% positive differential. Trading at the same valuation as if oil was $25. | 2008-08-06 | ||
| TOP PICK | Morgan Stanley | MS-N | 43.180 | His model price is $70.13, a positive differential of 62%. A very mispriced stock. If you are going to play financials, this is probably the one you should pick. | 2008-08-06 | ||
| TOP PICK | Pfizer Inc | PFE-N | 19.430 | Earnings where fantastic. Yield of 6.6%. | 2008-08-06 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Teck Resources Ltd. (B) | TCK.B-T | 42.730 | (A Top Pick July 27/07. Down 3%.) Great Buy if it gets down to $28 and if it reaches $51, he would take some profits. | 2008-08-06 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Valero Energy Corp | VLO-N | 34.470 | (A Top Pick July 27/07. Down 51%.) Everything has gone wrong for the refiners including refining capacity in the majors. As a value manager, his big concern would be a Value Trap. Once this one dropped its market cap on the S&P 500, he dropped its weighting. Still has value and great earnings. | 2008-08-06 | ||
| PAST TOP PICK | Lowes Companies Inc. | LOW-N | 21.240 | (A Top Pick July 27/07. Down 22%.) Consumer discretionary has been a very hard-hit area. Still in his top 10. | 2008-08-06 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Western Union Co. | WU-N | 26.950 | No mis-pricing here. His model price is $8.43. A negative 59% differential. Basically have no equity and the business requires little to no capital. There is no balance sheet there to really protect them. | 2008-08-06 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Shaw Communication (B) | SJR.B-T | 21.940 | This never shows up well for him. Valued in a different way such as EBITDA or growth in cell phones. His model price is $16.73, a negative differential of 24%. | 2008-08-06 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Johnson & Johnson | JNJ-N | 71.070 | Over time, the model price has been coming down. He has a model price of $60.18, a -14% differential. | 2008-08-06 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Mastercard Inc. | MA-N | 232.000 | Based on their last quarterly report, his model price is $113.27. This gives a -52% differential. | 2008-08-06 | ||
| Comment | Biovail Corp. | BVF-T | 10.700 | Hasn't been in his portfolio for several years. Plagued with bad news. Just needs some good news somewhere. Model price is $21.27, a positive 100% differential. He is seeing a little bit of traction in this group. | 2008-08-06 | ||
| BUY | Agrium | AGU-T | 87.160 | Model price is $109.36. (This model price is updated daily on his website so you can track it on your own.) | 2008-08-06 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Potash Corp of Saskatchewan | POT-T | 189.300 | This has been overvalued for quite some time. The model price is $159.39, a negative differential of 11%. | 2008-08-06 | ||
| BUY | CAE Inc | CAE-T | 10.860 | Has a model price of $14.21, 33% positive differential. Model price has been falling since January. A lot of good news regarding contracts signed but no follow through in terms of earnings or positive model price. | 2008-08-06 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Bank of Nova Scotia | BNS-T | 51.390 | No mis-pricing in any of the 6 Canadian banks. In this case it has a model price of $50.07, -1%. Ranking of the others gives National (NA-T) + 27%, CIBC (CM-T) +24%, Bank of Montreal +21%, Royal (RY-T) +10% and Toronto Dominion (TD-T) +1%. | 2008-08-06 | ||
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| DON'T BUY | Cameco Corporation | CCO-T | 33.960 | His model price is almost right on the current price and has a -3% differential. Earnings have been coming down. | 2008-08-06 |
