STOCKCHASE

30.260

(A Top Pick May 30/08. Down 36%.) Hadn't expected the meltdown to be as extensive, pervasively or as quickly as it was. Was overdone. Canadian banks are an excellent place to be. Buy.

2008-12-11

PAST TOP PICK

Shawcor Ltd. (A)

SCL.A-T

15.740

(A Top Pick May 30/08. Down 55%.) Very involved in the oil industry so got hit with the cutbacks. Great ROE. Should continue to do well over the long haul. When it starts to recover, that will be a good sign that major companies are planning to increase their cap X again.

2008-12-11

PAST TOP PICK

17.460

(A Top Pick May 30/08. Down 49%.) Their exposure to the US high-end office market took the stock down. Very high quality assets. Consider tax loss selling.

2008-12-11

Comment

United States Steel

X-N

37.220

Have gone through hard, hard times but are now much leaner and meaner and more efficient. Thinks there will be a lot of volatility before the details of infrastructure come out.

2008-12-11

DON'T BUY

Kinross Gold

K-T

19.320

Gold stocks have under performed the commodity. He feels that gold stocks are very overpriced. Priced to $1000 to $1200 an ounce in gold. If you want exposure, you are better to buy gold itself through an ETF such as SPDR Gold (GLD-N).

2008-12-11

DON'T BUY

Goldcorp Inc

G-T

33.600

2008-12-11

BUY

Great West Lifeco

GWO-T

20.300

You should be quite safe. Likes this company. He owns Power Corp. instead, which owns this company. Very conservatively managed.

2008-12-11

BUY

18.980

Disappointed that they hadn't protected themselves given the PPN notes they were selling. Financially strong, arguably the strongest financial institution in North America. Safe dividend. Very well run company. Good price.

2008-12-11

DON'T BUY

National Bank of Canada

NA-T

29.810

Although they have cut dividends in the past, he doesn't think they are at risk here. Most of their business is in Quebec, which will be hit at least as hard as Ontario. Prefers others.

2008-12-11

DON'T BUY

Canadian Western Bank

CWB-T

11.300

Has had a very difficult time. Their focus is primarily in the west and primarily in the resource area.

2008-12-11

BUY

Husky Energy

HSE-T

31.160

Quite optimistic about this one. There is always the possibility of it being taken over by its primary shareholder. Conservatively managed. Excellent balance sheet. One of the more conservative ways to play the energy situation.

2008-12-11

DON'T BUY

Ace Aviation Holdings Inc. (B)

0.020

Real Return Bonds: Have been eviscerated over the last several months because “real return” is your return after inflation. Inflation expectations were high 6 to 9 months ago but have fallen off a cliff since deflation became a possibility. High-quality corporate bonds will give you a better return.

2008-12-11

HOLD

Labrador Iron Ore

LIF.UN-T

19.550

All the metals have been hammered. Distribution is not necessarily safe, but doubts it will be cut to zero. Have some tremendous competitive advantages. Low cost producer and ship globally. Will be a good source of return if you wait 3 to 5 years.

2008-12-11

SELL

Gildan Activewear Inc.

GIL-T

11.600

Disappointed in the ability of the management to correctly communicate what earnings are going to be like and what their plans are.

2008-12-11

HOLD

ACE.B-T

6.570

In the process of liquidating their assets. If you own, he would be inclined to hold.

2008-12-11

DON'T BUY

H&R Real Estate Inv Trust

HR.UN-T

6.650

Feels REITs are paying out distributions that are unsustainable. Building the Bow in Calgary for Encana (ECA-T) and have a long-term lease. Despite that they are having a tremendous leap difficult time in getting the financing to continue the construction. Be cautious.

2008-12-11

SELL

Precision Drilling

PD-T

7.650

This is a company that he would not be in at all. It is so sensitive to the cap X of the energy companies. Thinks it will be a few years before this one returns to its former levels.

2008-12-11

BUY

Pembina Pipeline Income Trust

PIF.UN-T

13.520

One of the better names in the pipeline sector. Barring any major capital needs, you have a good return scenario and your capital is going to be reasonably well protected. 11.1% yield.

2008-12-11

SELL

Nortel

NT-T

0.475

This is a great opportunity to take some tax loss selling. Odds of any significant recovery are slim to nil.

2008-12-11

DON'T BUY

Teck Resources Ltd. (B)

TCK.B-T

5.270

At this stage, he wouldn't go into this one. If you want mining stocks for diversification, he would look at some of the global behemoths but you could wait another year or two.

2008-12-11

BUY

Canadian National R.R.

CNR-T

41.730

(Market Call Minute.) Extremely well run company. Very reasonable debt situation. Good proxy for the overall Canadian economy.

2008-12-11

HOLD

Loblaw Companies Ltd

L-T

34.000

(Market Call Minute.) Has performed amazingly well over the last little while. There is a possibility that Weston (WN-T) will take it back in the fold.

2008-12-11

BUY

Trans Canada Corp

TRP-T

32.640

(Market Call Minute.) Well run and a good dividend. Good growth potential.

2008-12-11

HOLD

Bell Aliant

BA.UN-T

22.500

(Market Call Minute.) Whole regional telecom industry is going to face some difficulties. Really don't know what's going to happen in the post BCE-Teachers situation.

2008-12-11

TOP PICK

First Capital Realty

FCR-T

18.350

One of the largest owners of anchored regional shopping centres in fast growing metropolitan areas. 7% yield. Well-managed. Good long-term play.

2008-10-23

TOP PICK

Power Corp

POW-T

27.700

Chief assets are Investors Group (IGM-T) and Great West Life (GWO-T). There has been no news from Great West of any write-offs. Investors Group has been hit by the downturn in the market but well positioned to benefit on the bounce back.

2008-10-23

TOP PICK

Cineplex Galaxy Income Fund

CGX.UN-T

13.060

Controls 64% of Canada's movie screens. Pays 70% of its earnings out in distributions. Roughly 10% yield, which is sustainable. Have tax pools so that in 2010 they won't be taxed until several years after.

2008-10-23

PAST TOP PICK

39.490

(A Top Pick May 30/08. Down 19%.) Has been weak, but not as weak as the market. Solid situation. Good Buy.

2008-10-23

PAST TOP PICK

Shawcor Ltd. (A)

SCL.A-T

16.750

(A Top Pick May 30/08. Down 51%.) Difficulty here is their dependency on the energy industry overall. Well capitalized and virtually no debt. Good for the long haul. Good Buy.

2008-10-23

PAST TOP PICK

Potash Corp of Saskatchewan

22.760

(A Top Pick May 30/08. Down 37 %.) Has performed pretty much in line with the market. Has been hit because of their exposure to real estate, especially high-end office real estate in New York. A lot of diversification. Well-managed. Likely to have a year or 2 of relative weakness. Good Buy.

2008-10-23

STRONG BUY

Suncor Energy Inc

SU-T

26.200

Likes this one. Need a reasonably long time frame for it. Security of energy supply will continue to be a big issue in the US. Cream of the crop. You know the reserves are there and demand will continue. Screaming Buy if you have a 5 plus years horizon.

2008-10-23

BUY

Agrium

AGU-T

37.540

At current levels, Agrium (AGU-T) and Potash (POT-T) are both looking compelling. Difficulty in that the fundamentals of both companies are overwhelmed by the credit crisis and fears in some circles that agriculture will not have access to enough credit to be able to farm at the same pace as in the past. Could go lower before going higher. Good for a 5-year hold.

2008-10-23

BUY

POT-T

85.990

2008-10-23

Comment

Toromont Industries

TIH-T

22.580

Some exposure to the housing industry but very well diversified. Financially solid. Compression business is solid as well. Its fundamentals are going to be overwhelmed by the credit winds. 3 to 5 year horizon, it's a buy.

2008-10-23

Comment

0.020

Banks’ Preferred Shares: Dividends are safe. He prefers common stocks because the dividend increases. Could take a good 18 to 24 months for a return to the normal credit relationship and a move up to normal pricing for banks’ preferreds.

2008-10-23

Comment

Labrador Iron Ore

LIF.UN-T

30.700

Demand for China will probably decrease. Thinks the distribution is likely safe. Low cost producer and well run. Not a guarantee as commodity prices could fluctuate wildly from here.

2008-10-23

Comment

Trans Canada Corp

TRP-T

35.750

Versus Enbridge (ENB-T)? Sees greater growth through Enbridge. Have been a little more nimble. Besides the dividend, there is growth as well. Both are solid companies and will be a round for some time.

2008-10-23

HOLD

TSX Group

X-T

28.000

Although volatility and volumes help them, historically things flat line and are quiet for some time after. This would be bad for them. There will likely be pressure to reduce costs for some transactions. Likes it for the long haul.

2008-10-23

Comment

BCE Inc.

BCE-T

35.100

The weaker Cdn$ means the US banks involved will have to access less US$ but won't be the critical factor on whether the deal is done or not. The major players say the deal will be done and he feels the same.

2008-10-23

DON'T BUY

Teck Resources Ltd. (B)

TCK.B-T

12.540

Although it seems like the central banks and governments are getting things in place, we don't know how severe the recession will be. This is particularly important for mining stocks and commodities plays. He would give it at least another quarter or two.

2008-10-23

Comment

Petro-Canada

PCA-T

27.800

Prefers Suncor (SU-T), which is a better operator. Good value at current levels, but thinks Suncor is better.

2008-10-23

HOLD

Talisman Energy

TLM-T

11.000

Likes this company. Well managed. Good for the long haul. Won't rebound until there is some change in the credit environment and some sign as to the duration of the recession. If you own, you could add to your position.

2008-10-23

DON'T BUY

Barrick Gold

ABX-T

23.640

If you believe the credit crisis is going to get worse, gold will move up. He believes the government's have a handle on the credit crisis, and if so, then the lustre will come off gold. He is not a big fan of gold.

2008-10-23

BUY

Russel Metals

RUS-T

20.030

Exposed to the overall decline in commodity prices and fears of a slowdown. Not a typical metals company, more of a distribution arm, which gives them a little more protection. If you have a 3 to 5 year time horizon it is a compelling value. Good yield and well managed.

2008-10-23

BUY

26.010

Had held in quite well until just a couple of weeks ago. Came under some pressure in terms of their exposure in the US. He feels there are no more skeletons in their closet. Triple A company. Good time to add to your position.

2008-10-23

HOLD

Transalta Corp

TA-T

25.140

Dividend is likely safe. Have a high debt load but have been paying out a fairly high percentage of their earnings as dividends for some time. In an area where the population growth is going to be above the national average.

2008-10-23

HOLD

Husky Energy

HSE-T

33.000

Very well run. Likes that there is always the possibility of a takeout by the controlling shareholder. One of the better larger energy companies out there.

2008-10-23

VAGUE

Teck Resources Ltd. (B)

TCK.B-T

23.080

Their sector is the largest hit. As a small holding this is likely a reasonable entry level, but don’t expect a return to the levels we have seen over the last year.

2008-10-03

WAIT

Nova Chemicals Corp.

NCX-T

20.570

This is dependant on the commodity cycle. It has more to go on the downside.

2008-10-03

SELL

Petro-Canada

PCA-T

32.250

Sleepy money is what you invest in this. Cut their position in the news of the fort hills project and invested in Suncor. They will be out of this stock in the next quarter. The execution is what concerns them.

2008-10-03

DON'T BUY

Yamana Gold Inc.

YRI-T

7.500

Gold companies are making money at $800/oz. A month ago he would have put high odds of inflation rearing its ugly head. But now he thinks it will be deflation. He thinks gold will not do well. They don’t buy gold companies or ETFs.

2008-10-03

DON'T BUY

Transalta Corp

TA-T

27.500

The perennial question is how safe is the dividend. There have been on-going debt concerns and an aborted deal they tried to do a while ago. He is concerned about the sustainability of the dividend.

2008-10-03

BUY

Pengrowth Energy Trust

PGF.UN-T

14.400

It’s a solid company. Distribution is safe, but what if 6 months from now oil is $50 a barrel and if this happened they would have some problems, but they are the strongest of the sector.

2008-10-03

TOP PICK

SNC-Lavalin Group Inc.

SNC-T

34.050

Likes it because they are involved in infrastructure development and there is so much to be done in Asia. They have no debt, excellent management team and are one of the largest engineering and management companies in the world. Have been adding at current levels.

2008-10-03

DON'T BUY

0.020

Silver: There is a commodity side to Silver. There is increasing demand for Silver in China for Jewelry. But this demand is overwhelmed in this market by the financial demand as an investment. The problem with Silver and Gold is that there is no reason for them to rebound. Only buy it to give as a gift.

2008-10-03

WAIT

Agrium

AGU-T

43.720

Dropped because an analyst got nervous and sounded the alarm. Be Cautious. He likes it but thinks they may go lower. You could do some buying around these levels but don’t get the whole position and don’t overweight.

2008-10-03

Comment

Cineplex Galaxy Income Fund

0.020

Anticipation is sometimes better than reality. The market anticipated the passing of the bailout bill, but then started to realize how the recession would hit Canada. The market had some reality therapy towards the close today. The commodity peak has clearly come and gone, but does not agree that the commodity boom is over.

2008-10-03

BUY

Bank of Montreal

BMO-T

42.500

(and Banks in general) Don’t have everything in the banks. The only part of the TSX that have been up in the last quarter is the financials. The dividends are safe and there is a long history of dividend increases. Banks should be no more than 20 or 30% of porfolio. Focus on dividend-paying stocks.

2008-10-03

HOLD

Research In Motion

RIM-T

66.030

Stock has been devastated because of concerns over their ability to grow at the pace they have been, given the meltdown in the US financial sector and the fact that a lot of financial types are big users of their products. Hold – the damage has been done. It will continue to be tremendously volatile, but it is a classic growth story. They always get hit in these kind of markets but this is a company that has a technological edge that they are going to be able to maintain.

2008-10-03

DON'T BUY

Barrick Gold

ABX-T

34.950

If the US is forced to raise interest rates, which he thinks is unlikely, it would be bad for gold in US dollar terms. Thinks gold is not likely going to be a great place to be as a longer-term investment over the next several years. Thinks the reparation will occur to the US financial structure. Thinks the US dollar is close to bottom. Gold as a commodity is the better buy and the premium for gold through a gold stock is outrageous.

2008-10-03

WAIT

Bombardier Inc (B)

BBD.B-T

5.200

This is a good entry point. Even if you discount regional jet orders, turbo props, business jets and you assume flat line growth in rail, there is still good value in the stock. We are going to see a slowdown in the demand for short haul aircraft. Good over the longer haul, but it’s not going to run away on you.

2008-10-03

TOP PICK

CGX.UN-T

13.820

It has tax pools so that when it converts it wont be taxed for some time, yield at over 9%, 70% of earnings pay distribution. Tremendous income oriented stock.

2008-10-03

DON'T BUY

0.020

Slver: There is a commodity side to Silver. There is increasing demand for Silver in China for Jewelry. But this demand is overwhelmed in this market by the financial demand as an investment. The problem with Silver and Gold is that there is no reason for them to rebound. Only buy it to give as a gift.

2008-10-03

TOP PICK

36.470

Great example of a great Canadian company. One of the best capitalized insurance companies in the world. Can benefit from the US financial crisis. What for acquisitions.

2008-10-03

TOP PICK

Loblaw Companies Ltd

L-T

30.460

He sees the Book Value at $20/$22 a share and the real estate is likely undervalued in that. The market has priced in the worst-case scenario. There are a number of things being done that will provide improvement. Relatively low risk.

2008-07-17

TOP PICK

Toronto Dominion

TD-T

58.360

Has executed its plan flawlessly. Had very limited exposure to the debacle in the US and yet has been tarred by the same brush. Recently increased its dividend giving you an idea of its financial strength. Cheap at approximately 10X earnings.

2008-07-17

TOP PICK

47.570

Think they are focusing on the wealth management side where they have been weak in Canada. Would look for them to take advantage of the debacle in the US.

2008-07-17

BUY

Agrium

AGU-T

95.240

Strong potential. Being driven by the rapid demand for the increase in commodities. Also the rapid demand and putting more land under the plow. Longer-term prospects are solid.

2008-07-17

Comment

Royal Bank

RY-T

44.350

Q: Sell this one for a tax loss and going into Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T)? A: From a tax point of view, he would have no disagreement with this. In 5, 10, 15 years both banks are going to look like great investments. On the other hand, you could add BNS to your existing portfolio.

2008-07-17

BUY

Thomson Reuters Corp

TRI-T

30.780

Has been hit because of their dependence on the financial services sector. Trading at about 8X EBITDA.

2008-07-17

Comment

31.700

Still has to get out from under its office problems. It will be some time before that real estate arm picks up.

2008-07-17

Comment

0.020

Thinks gold stocks are a very expensive way to play gold. He would prefer the ETFs. Thinks it quite likely that gold will breach the $1000 level and will move higher. Gold should only be about 10%-15% of anyone's portfolio.

2008-07-17

BUY

SNC-Lavalin Group Inc.

SNC-T

52.930

SNC Lavalin (SNC-T) vs. Stantec (STN-T). Owns both, but prefers SNC at this time because of their global reach, infrastructure and expertise. Their order book is full to bursting. Their major infrastructure projects are going to have to go ahead.

2008-07-17

Comment

UTS Energy

UTS-T

5.530

More speculative than the kind of stocks he usually focuses on. Well managed. Trading at a pretty reasonable valuation compared to its peers. Will be volatile.

2008-07-17

BUY

Suncor Energy Inc

SU-T

54.500

Heavily geared to the price of oil. The cost of getting those assets out of the ground has increased dramatically. Increasingly there have been concerns in the US about dirty oil from the tar sands but the need for oil will trump. If you were looking for one over the next five years this would be it.

2008-07-17

PARTIAL BUY

Nexen Inc

NXY-T

32.950

Missed their earnings estimates sold the stock dropped. Little riskier than some of the senior energy stocks because of its international focus. This means market is going to punish it more when it doesn't perform. Very well run company. He would Hold for the long haul and would be tempted to add a little to a position.

2008-07-17

HOLD

Duvernay Oil Corp

DDV-T

81.920

Being acquired by Shell. If you own, hold on for the $83.

2008-07-17

HOLD

Canadian Western Bank

CWB-T

23.980

Really likes this bank. There is exposure to the energy sector, which is boom and bust. Underneath that story there is a larger story of huge demographic growth in Western Canada.

2008-07-17

HOLD

BCE Inc.

BCE-T

35.050

Thinks deal will close at $42.75 and all will occur as expected. Sit tight, huge breakup fee if deal fails. Paying Bondholders to mitigate their risk would be cheaper. Credit markets are now a little better behaved.

2008-05-30

DON'T BUY

0.020

Gold may well have seen it’s peak in the near term, but as a hedge, a little gold makes some sense. He doesn’t like gold stocks and finds them outrageously overvalued, so use gold futures or something of that nature.

2008-05-30

PARTIAL SELL

0.020

Suggests holding 80% of what oil and gas represents in the TSX (24-25% position). Gas could perform better than oil. Oil could weaken before it moves up again.

2008-05-30

HOLD

Encana Corp

ECA-T

89.510

After it splits, keep the gas.

2008-05-30

BUY

38.370

They like it. This is a good entry point. Internationally they are tremendously successful. Made a brilliant acquisition in Hancock and executed it well. Change of CEO is a risk.

2008-05-30

BUY

UTS Energy

UTS-T

5.600

All of these companies are so dependant on commodity prices. Will perform better than overall index

2008-05-30

HOLD

Talisman Energy

TLM-T

22.820

Chinese national oil company may be interested in acquiring. Talisman has been divesting itself of some properties, but it’s part of a longer-term strategy to re-orient themselves in the north sea. Some view it as a high-risk strategy. Because of rumors of takeover, not the time to buy, but to hold.

2008-05-30

TOP PICK

49.750

Managed to escape much of the credit problems, and the ability of their management in risk management to steer clear of these issues. They are the most international of the banks. Are a bank that are the most efficient of the banks in their domestic network, 4% dividend, should significantly outperform the market in the 3-5 year horizon.

2008-05-30

TOP PICK

Shawcor Ltd. (A)

SCL.A-T

34.670

Petroleum services. Known for their pipe coating. Involved in many aspects of the petroleum industry globally. Demand for exploration will increase and this stock is very well positioned.

2008-05-30

TOP PICK