| TOP PICK | | Intertape Polymer Group | ITP-T | 3.480 | Old management took on a lot of debt. Management changed but old management came back, which made a lot of sense. Revenues of about $750 million. Looking to cut debt load and costs. Takeover offer of about $4.65 last year. Good long term track record. Caveat: Provide a lot of tape to the housing industry. | 2008-07-04 | |
| TOP PICK | | Analysts International Corp | ANLY-Q | 1.360 | Staffing industry primarily for IT. Been wrong on this one for the last 2 years but new CEO has a good record of consolidation and selling companies at a premium. Appears to be doing the same thing here. Caveat: A lot of people are being laid off in the US and there is a question how many people companies will be taking on. | 2008-07-04 | |
| TOP PICK | | Integrated Silicon Solution | ISSI-Q | 5.240 | Over $40 million of cash. Insiders own about $14 million. Now profitable again. A competitive semiconductor industry, which is a downside. | 2008-07-04 | |
| PAST TOP SHORT | | Alexanders Inc. | ALX-N | 302.800 | (A Top Pick Sept 21/07. Up 28% on this Short.) Shorted because US real estate was way overvalued. This company focuses on commercial real estate, which has to go down hill. | 2008-07-04 | |
| PAST TOP SHORT | | Autozone Inc. | AZO-N | 120.180 | (A Top Pick Sept 21/07. Up 14% on this Short.) Current conditions will make it difficult for people to keep on driving so will have fewer need for auto repairs. It remains an excellent Short. | 2008-07-04 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | CASH | CASH | 0.000 | (A Top Pick Sept 21/07.) | 2008-07-04 | |
| Comment | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Contarian Outlook: Current market condition is good news. Always looking at sectors and cherry picking in them. Financial sector - will likely get a chance later to buy dividend-paying stocks with possibility of capital appreciation. Dividends allow increased returns even if stock does not move. Wait for things to shake out and some tax loss selling. Other sectors, particularily housing, could also be interesting. | 2008-07-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Railpower Technologies Corp | P-T | 0.560 | Amazing how companies can lose so much money and stay in business. Teacher Pension has moved in with a lot of money twice otherwise the company would be toast. If you are looking for a long-term, relatively speculative play, this might be for you. | 2008-07-04 | |
| BUY | | ATS Automation | ATA-T | 6.990 | Automated tooling for automobile, housing and solar industries. Solar division was doing very poorly for quite a while. Starting to turn the corner now. | 2008-07-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Bombardier Inc (B) | BBD.B-T | 7.050 | Could double again, but the risk/reward ratio is not attractive enough for him. He looks for companies that can go up at least 100%, 200%, 300%, 400%. | 2008-07-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Cott Corp | BCB-T | 3.130 | In the midst of management changes. Watching it closely. Tremendous potential to go back up but he is not interested yet. Lost 40% of their shelf space at Wal-Mart, which will really hurt them. Could be a 10 bagger but also could be a total bust. | 2008-07-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Thomson Reuters Corp | TRI-T | 31.300 | Sector that is largely out of favour right now. Too expensive for him. Other companies such as Torstar (TS.B-T) or Lee Enterprises (LEE-N) are more attractive. An area that will survive but you have to pick your spots. | 2008-07-04 | |
| Comment | | Research In Motion | RIM-T | 119.000 | He is only interested in stocks that are under $25 and preferably under $10 that are at the least 10 years old. As a contrary and investor, the stock would have to drop a great deal. | 2008-07-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Second Cup Royalty Income Fund | SCU.UN-T | 8.000 | This and Tim Hortons (THI-T) will profit from an economy that is going backwards, to some degree. A lot of the high dividend payers come out of very high multiples and cannot sustain their multiples. | 2008-07-04 | |
| Comment | | Medisolution | MSH-T | 0.235 | Backed by some very big players. Company has done almost nothing for a long period of time but he is happy to hold it. Whenever dealing with smaller software players there is always a danger. | 2008-07-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Western Canadian Coal Corp. | WTN-T | 7.600 | Coal has taken a huge hit in the last few days. Even though it has come off it is of no interest to him. Would have to come off a long way. | 2008-07-04 | |
| Comment | | Viterra Inc | VT-T | 13.720 | Management is talking about doing a lot more takeovers. Have sullied the balance sheet with a lot of debt. Fortunately, they are in an industry where things are going very well for them. He had bought in at $5.57 and sold almost 70%. Holding on to the rest because there is a lot of potential upside. | 2008-07-04 | |
| Comment | | Potash Corp of Saskatchewan | POT-T | 213.320 | If you are a momentum player, it might be of interest to you. As a contrarian player, he has absolutely no interest in this kind of company. Risk/reward ratio is not good enough for him. | 2008-07-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Breakwater Resources | BWR-T | 0.365 | Trading at 3.7X earnings. This stock is definitely a gamble. Company has a history of issuing more and more shares. Zinc does well for a while, comes off, and they do a consolidation. | 2008-07-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Pfizer Inc | PFE-N | 17.750 | Not cheap enough for him yet. He would have to go over the financial statements. There are a lot of companies in this area that may be of interest in the next few years. | 2008-07-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Biovail Corp. | BVF-T | 9.990 | Has many internal difficulties. A company that is very hard for him to understand what is going on. | 2008-07-04 | |
| WAIT | | Washington Mutual Inc | WM-N | 5.380 | Recently went on his Stock Watch list, which has over 200 companies. Once he finds a company, he doesn't go in for at least 6 months. Could be a Buy towards the end of the year when tax loss season is down. He wants to see that there is stability in the stock price and that the company will survive. | 2008-07-04 | |
| Comment | | Mountain Province Diamonds Inc. | MPV-T | 4.700 | May have participated in a huge diamond find in the territories. Certainly not a contrarian play. Problem with companies in this sector, a little bit of a wild west show unless it's a very established company. | 2008-07-04 | |
| Comment | | Canfor Corp | CFP-T | 7.780 | There are some exceedingly bright people with deep pockets involved with this. Doesn't know the financials well enough on this one. Finds the sector fascinating. On his radar screen. | 2008-07-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Canadian National R.R. | CNR-T | 46.250 | (Market Call Minute.) In a dangerous phase because it is still fairly high priced and if there is an economic recession they will lose a lot of their abilities. | 2008-07-04 | |
| Comment | | Ford Motor | F-N | 4.420 | (Market Call Minute.) On his watch list. Could potentially go bankrupt or could be a 10 bagger. | 2008-07-04 | |
| Comment | | Methanex Corp | MX-T | 26.690 | (Market Call Minute.) Too high a price for a contrarian play. It might be all right for other people. | 2008-07-04 | |
| WEAK BUY | | AbitibiBowater Inv. | ABH-N | 8.030 | (Market Call Minute.) Could go into receivership but could also be a 10 bagger. Very, very risky. | 2008-07-04 | |
| Comment | | CitiGroup | C-N | 16.820 | (Market Call Minute.) On his watch list. Would like to see it come off some more before he would possibly buy into it. Likely to be a survivor. Good dividend. Could do well. | 2008-07-04 | |
| WATCH | | Bank of Montreal | BMO-T | 46.930 | Believes there will still be some major hits in the financial market. Be very wary. | 2008-03-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Bank of Nova Scotia | BNS-T | 46.680 | Would stay away from the entire sector at this point. | 2008-03-25 | |
| VAGUE | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Resource stocks- Don’t rush out of the sector, cherry pick certain stocks. Should come down because of a global economic slowdown. | 2008-03-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Northgate Minerals Corp. | NGX-T | 3.150 | No longer has a large upside, as is typical of the resource sector. Not a stock that is interesting at this point. If copper does well then this should do well. | 2008-03-25 | |
| BUY | | True Energy Trust | TUI.UN-T | 3.550 | It’s a good buy. Distribution is about 14%. Happy sticking with it. Excellent chance for capital appreciation. | 2008-03-25 | |
| HOLD | | BCE Inc. | BCE-T | 36.690 | If the deal doesn’t go through, the stock will drop to $30 or lower. You will get a dividend of 4%. Longer term this should work out well. | 2008-03-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Gabriel Resources | GBU-T | 1.700 | Romanian government isn’t sticking their nose in, they are trying to protect their people, supports the policy. The resource isn’t going anywhere, therefore the stock should eventually go up. It’s too risky at this price. | 2008-03-25 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Zarlink | ZL-T | 0.800 | (Top pick, April 19, 2007. Down 66%) Has lost an incredible amount of money over the past year. They have sold off some of their assets. The company can return to form, a long-term target of over $10. | 2008-03-25 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | ATS Automation | ATA-T | 5.900 | (Top pick, April 19, 2007. Down 15%) They’re in the solar field, very competitive space that is growing. Target over $21. | 2008-03-25 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Solectron corp- (Top pick, April 19, 2007. Up 17%) Could go up over $30. A huge company with good management. Would like to see the debt come down a bit more | 2008-03-25 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | | Potash Corp of Saskatchewan | POT-T | 159.340 | Worried about stocks that move up so much. Wouldn’t be buying in at this point. Don’t buy unless you’re a momentum player. Wait for a sell off before you play it. | 2008-03-25 | |
| Comment | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Income trusts and REIT’s- Would be happy capitalizing on distributions for the next couple of years. Come 2011 these income trusts could become corporations again, don’t worry about it. | 2008-03-25 | |
| HOLD | | Manulife Financial | MFC-T | 37.830 | Be wary of this area, there is so much trouble in the financial area. There are better opportunities out there. Would hold if owned. Play financials for dividends. This only has 2.5% dividend. | 2008-03-25 | |
| VAGUE | | Yellow Pages Income Fund | YLO.UN-T | 10.130 | 11.2% yield, good reason to keep it. An interesting stock now, could justify buying it. If they can maintain distribution it helps. | 2008-03-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | | CAE Inc | CAE-T | 11.900 | Price is far too high, not interested. | 2008-03-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | | International Forest Products (A) | IFP.A-T | 5.400 | Buy if you want a beaten down sector. Be wary of debt levels. Prefers Abitibibowater (ABH-T). Wouldn’t really buy anything in this sector. | 2008-03-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | | TorstarCorp (B) | TS.B-T | 16.860 | The company has come down a ways. They are diversified which is good, they have a legacy. Not cheap enough for entry. | 2008-03-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Petro-Can | PCA-T | 43.580 | Would hold if owned, wouldn’t buy. Not cheap enough, to many dangers out there. | 2008-03-25 | |
| SELL | | Quebecor World Inc. | IQW-T | 0.155 | Buy if you want to live dangerously. If owned would be selling. | 2008-03-25 | |
| HOLD | | Pfizer Inc | PFE-N | 20.780 | Dividend over 6%. Would hold for the dividend. Wouldn’t buy. | 2008-03-25 | |
| VAGUE | | Nortel | NT-T | 7.000 | Has huge upside. If they stop paying outrageous salaries and learn how to count money it would be liked. | 2008-03-25 | |
| TOP PICK | | Analysts International Corp | ANLY-Q | 1.480 | Have a new CEO. Have takeover offer on the table at $1.75. Have refused the takeover offer. They’re downsizing. Have a target of over $10, long-term. | 2008-03-25 | |
| TOP PICK | | InFocus | INFS-Q | 1.780 | A leader in the projection system field. Can see it going over $10. Have virtually no debt. Have recently put themselves up for sell. | 2008-03-25 | |
| TOP PICK | | Magic Software Enterprises Inc | MGIC-Q | 1.840 | Based in Israel. Have had record revenues. Virtually no debt. Problem with strong Israeli currency. | 2008-03-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Hudbay Minerals Inc. | HBM-T | 17.500 | CEO just left and he is always leery when this type of thing happens. Good balance sheet. He doesn't like companies that are up 70X over a few years as he is looking for contrarian plays. The new CEO is talking about acquisitions because a lot of the mineral companies are cheap, but he questions that. | 2008-01-25 | |
| Comment | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Gold: Doesn’t think of this as a safe haven as historically, it has proven not to be. | 2008-01-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | | LuLulemon Athletica | LLL-T | 31.240 | Has a capitalization of over $2 billion. Revenues were about $220 million. The book value is about $1.50. His regret is that he didn't short it when it had its big run-up. Thanks their product line is under diversified and is pricey. | 2008-01-25 | |
| BUY | | Viterra Inc | VT-T | 11.600 | He has a target price of $12.84 but thinks it could easily blow through there. They control about 42% of the Canadian market and they have a lot of upside. Have additional debt, but the balance sheet is much bigger so they can support it. | 2008-01-25 | |
| Comment | | True Energy Trust | TUI.UN-T | 3.020 | Have a big debt load they have to deal with. They are looking to sell off their Saskatchewan properties. Yield is great at $0.04 a month. Thinks they can sustain their yield. Likes it going forward, but there are definite dangers with this company. Management is a question mark. | 2008-01-25 | |
| BUY | | Liquidation World | LQW-T | 2.420 | Very clean balance sheet. Has about $15 million of debt but he thinks the company can support it. Closing their US operations except for 3 stores. Expanding in Canada but they have cut back the expansion plans, which he likes. They have to work on their margins. If there is a recession going forward, they can get some bargain buys. Retailers go out of business and they pick up the goods at major discount. | 2008-01-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Fonar Corp | FONR-Q | 4.340 | An MRI company and they do a stand-up MRI. Have leading edge technology with numerous patents. Afraid that management lives in a bit of a fantasy world and think they’re God's gift to MRIs. There aren't enough companies buying their product. They lose money almost every year. | 2008-01-25 | |
| TOP PICK | | ATS Automation | ATA-T | 6.080 | Deals with automation in the automotive industry, health care, computers as well as into solar. There are so many companies out there and there is some question about the efficacy. Likes the new board of directors. Also have a new CEO. Think it's moving in the right direction. | 2008-01-25 | |
| TOP PICK | | Intertape Polymer Group Inc. | ITP-N | 2.700 | 75% of their manufacturing is in the US so the stronger Cdn$ wouldn’t affect them. Export about 50% to Canada. Takeover offer last year at $4.66 was turned down. Company had the first profit this last quarter since 2005, which is indicative of a turnaround. They are reducing debt. | 2008-01-25 | |
| TOP PICK | | Flextronic International | FLEX-Q | 9.740 | This is a contrarian kind of stock. Does over $20 billion in revenues. They make money year after year. Have limited debt. They are major players in their field. | 2008-01-25 | |
| HOLD | | Zarlink | ZL-T | 0.640 | Played this one really poorly by buying in at $2.26. Lost a lot of money last quarter. Insiders bought a lot of shares, so he is hoping that they are smart. Have good technology. Took over Legacy so they no longer have a clean balance sheet. Likes management. | 2008-01-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Teck Cominco Ltd. (B) | TCK.B-T | 32.660 | This is still not cheap enough for him to be in. He would find it much more attractive at under $20. | 2008-01-25 | |
| SELL | | Timminco Ltd. | TIM-T | 13.300 | Companies that have gone up so much in value, to him, he doesn't buy into it. | 2008-01-25 | |
| TOP PICK | | True Energy Trust | TUI.UN-T | 2.900 | Recently cut distributions by half but now at a point where they might be able to stabilize them. If gas prices stay at current levels, distributions should be safe. New CEO. Still some danger in that they have more debt than revenues. | 2007-12-24 | |
| TOP PICK | | Mace Security International Inc. | MACE-Q | 1.980 | Mace and security systems manufacturers. Also into carwashes and selling these off for cash going forward. Have moved into Internet marketing, which is risky if it does not go well. Trading at about 2/3 of book value. Have a substantial debt level. | 2007-12-24 | |
| TOP PICK | | Theragenics Corp | TGX-N | 3.710 | Cancer therapy. Revenues have grown. Acquired a $10 million company for $30 million, which was questionable. Fairly clean balance sheet. | 2007-12-24 | |
| BUY | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Got your Top Picks listed, but have company and the rest will have to wait for a few days.
Happy Holidays.
Bill | 2007-12-24 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Solectron Corp | SLR-N | 3.870 | (A Past Top Pick Apr 20/07. Up 14.1%.) Acquired by Flextronic (FLEX-Q) for $3.89 or shares. He elected to keep the shares and Flextronic is on his Buy list. | 2007-12-24 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | ATS Automation | ATA-T | 4.640 | (A Past Top Pick Apr 20/07. Down 46.4 %.) Just doubled his position in it. Board of directors was changed for the better. New CEO. Have a debt load they have to deal with this month. | 2007-12-24 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Zarlink | ZL-T | 0.650 | (A Past Top Pick Apr 20/07. Down 72.5%.) Still comfortable holding and is on his Buy list. Acquired Legerity, which doubled the company’s size but took on about $75 million debt giving it a messy balance sheet. Still has a lot of cash. Last quarter was a blood bath. Very competitive field. Management has been accumulating stock. Big insider buying. Speculative. | 2007-12-24 | |
| BUY | | Flextronic International | FLEX-Q | 12.150 | Likes the acquisitions that they made of Solectron, which gives them a good size and makes him a very strong company. Has a lot of upside still. | 2007-12-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Canadian Solar Inc. | CSIQ-Q | 30.980 | Solar is a hot field and a lot of companies have done very well. This one has gone up about 4X from its low, which makes him a little wary. Have been signing new contracts, working in China and everything seems to be going their way. Not a contrarian investment. | 2007-12-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Wolseley PLC | WOS-LN | 14.710 | Huge company with over $30 billion of revenues. Big in North America and the United Kingdom. Lovely balance sheet. One caveat, Have decided to de-list from the NYSE and will be OTC, which is like a wild west show. Far harder to trade OTC. | 2007-12-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Quebecor World Inc. | IQW-T | 1.790 | This is on his Stock Watch list. As a contrarian, he likes to avoid a falling knife and this one is still falling precipitously. Could possibly go into receivership. | 2007-12-24 | |
| HOLD | | Bank of Nova Scotia | BNS-T | 50.950 | Canadian banking sector, until recently, has had the best-run sector globally. Expects more shoes to fall. He would be wary of this sector. If selling, wait until the new year. Good dividend. | 2007-12-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | | CAE Inc | CAE-T | 13.200 | Have done well in this sector. Hasn't moved far too much for him and is no longer a contrarian play. | 2007-12-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Magellan Aerospa | MAL-T | 1.330 | Debt load is too big for him. Has not done well in this sector. Still have all kinds of difficulties. | 2007-12-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Bank of Montreal | BMO-T | 56.300 | See comments under Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T). | 2007-12-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Gabriel Resources | GBU-T | 1.630 | Have had a lot of difficulties with their Rumanian play. Even with its big drop, it is not of interest to him. Far too high given the risk scenario. | 2007-12-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Teck Cominco Ltd. (B) | TCK.B-T | 36.150 | Has certainly come off, but not a contrarian play. He was amazed at how high it had actually gone. Had a lot of money and bought a lot of companies at the height of the cycle. This does not bode well for them. | 2007-12-24 | |
| Comment | | Connors Bros. Income Fund | CBF.UN-T | 7.520 | His partner bought into this, but not attractive enough for him. If they get their house in order, there will be better distributions going forward. He couldn't see that the upside was attractive enough. | 2007-12-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Sears Canada | SCC-T | 24.650 | Too expensive for his style. Not a contrarian play. | 2007-12-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Blackstone Group LP | BX-N | 23.262 | Wrote a column in the Globe recently and trashed this stock. Management was getting most of the money. IPO was down over 90% in 1 year. Very little potential going for it. | 2007-12-24 | |
| Comment | | Mitec Telecom | MTM-T | 0.100 | He personally owns it and has been very wrong on this firm. Brought in new management, which makes sense in terms of a turnaround. Have a fair amount of heavy slogging to do but seemed to be doing better quarter after quarter. Has a lot of potential, but any stock trading at this price has a lot of danger. | 2007-12-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | | TLC Laser Eye Centres | TLC-T | 2.420 | This is on his Stock Watch list. Balance sheet is pretty dirty with a lot of debt. Company is trying to make major changes, but at this point the risk is far too great for him. Likes the field, which is a growing one. | 2007-12-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | | South America Gold & Copper | SAG-T | 0.045 | Have about 450 million shares outstanding meaning they may have to consolidate. Trying to get their Chilean mine going again. Had an avalanche, which eliminated the company's operations. Need more money. | 2007-12-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Etrade Financial Corp. | ETFC-Q | 3.610 | Have been shored up and he can see a fair bit of upside. Doesn't know the financials well enough to know what he would do, but wouldn't buy into it at this point. | 2007-12-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | CM-T | 70.640 | See comments under Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T). This one would be the most contrarian of the banks, but would like to see it come down even further. | 2007-12-24 | |
| TOP PICK | | SPAR GROUP | SGRP-Q | 0.860 | Is not in the contra portfolio, he owns personally.
Major danger, is that it's gone under a dollar, which might cause it to become an otc stock, if it doesn't get above.
| 2007-10-18 | |
| Comment | | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Suggests that climate change is an investment opportunity. If you go long on stocks, one of the fields you should be doing well is, the agricultural sector in Canada. Also solar, power (ats automation).
If it's contrarion and out of favour they like to look at it. | 2007-10-18 | |
| TOP PICK | | Analysts International Corp | ANLY-Q | 1.660 | This company is located in the U.S. It has been losing money but very little. They have a new management team who have cut costs and the company has no debt. Believes the stock has the potential to go above $10. | 2007-10-18 | |
| TOP PICK | | Flextronic International | FLEX-Q | 12.020 | He likes this company a lot. They have a 30 billion operation in terms of revenue, but also have some debt after a merger. Believes it is a major industry leader that will do well. Watch for upcoming write-offs because of the merger. Believes they will make money in a competitive market. | 2007-10-18 | |
| SPECULATIVE BUY | | Cygnal Technologies Corp | CYN-T | 0.280 | Has been a disaster for them.
He liked the new management, but it has proven to be a far more difficult turn around story.
They have stabilized revenues. Have cut costs and hired new sales people, so they are making progress, but it is still a question of if it can be turned around.
If it does it will do well, if it doesn't it will go under. | 2007-10-18 | |
| HOLD | | Penn Treaty American Corp. | PTA-N | 5.810 | Congress has been taking a look at it, which is a bad sign. They have gotten behind on their accounting. They are giving all the positive signs, he is wondering though. He's "happy to hold" but wouldn't buy. | 2007-10-18 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Precision Drilling Corp. | PD.UN-T | 18.520 | Would not be interested in investing in a drilling company at this time.
| 2007-10-18 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Fortune Minerals Ltd. | FT-T | 2.500 | It could be in play, but at a much lower level. Too expensive. | 2007-10-18 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Yukon Zinc | YZC-X | 0.230 | Is not interesting to him at this time. It does have more potential then a lot of companies do, but it would be a long term.
He would like to see the zinc price come down, and for them to be more out of favour. | 2007-10-18 | |
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