| DON'T BUY | | Hudson Bay Co. | HBC-T | 13.200 | Has not been able to buck the trend of same store sales and difficult profitability. Feels the Cdn. economy is going to soften. Consequently the fundamentals are not particularly stellar. There is a renewed view that the US investor, who has been accumulating its stock, is going to buy the rest of the company. Wouldn’t be willing to make that bet. | 2005-05-04 | |
| HOLD | | Niko Resources | NKO-T | 54.210 | Got a little ahead of itself and reached the $70 area on enthusiasm of news items. Still feels they are going to be able to find and develop a lot more gas/oil in their regions. Appears expensive at this price, but future discoveries could create a lot more upside. Energy stocks are going to get a little challenged, so got out at a higher price. | 2005-05-04 | |
| WAIT | | PetroKazakhstan Inc | PKZ-T | 32.600 | The market did not like the news of the CEO retiring. Would wait for the dust to settle before going into this stock. | 2005-05-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | | BCE Inc. | BCE-T | 29.980 | Wire line numbers were better than expected for Telus (T-T) but even more so for BCE (BCE-T). Wireless on the other hand was better for Telus, but not so good for BCE. These large caps, grinding sideways, do not offer a lot of potential. | 2005-05-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Telus Corp | T-T | 39.200 | Wire line numbers were better than expected for Telus (T-T) but even more so for BCE (BCE-T). Wireless on the other hand was better for Telus, but not so good for BCE. These large caps, grinding sideways, do not offer a lot of potential. | 2005-05-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | | CAE Inc | CAE-T | 5.770 | This stock is in no-man’s-land. Has tried to raise money 2/3 times in the last 18 months and pulled the issue 1) because management didn’t have its act together and 2) the market wasn’t receptive as the outlook was cloudy. Has had a tough time in meeting/beating expectations. | 2005-05-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Proctor & Gamble | PG-N | 55.140 | Trades at 20/21 X earnings with a yield of about 2%. Has been pretty choppy over the last year. Gillette acquisition is pretty representative of the big pharmas style in the last few years of generating some top line growth. Expect it to just grind sideways. Not ridiculously expensive based on its pristine balance sheet, but not very exciting. | 2005-05-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Cognos | CSN-T | 46.070 | Has had a few challenges lately. Threats that Microsoft was going to get into its space. License revenues were pretty disappointing. Cream of the crop company, but in the short term it will continue to suffer. | 2005-05-04 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | BHP Billiton Ltd. | BHP-N | 25.650 | (A Top Pick Jan 17/05. Up 6%.) Sold the stock a few months ago. Continue to like the longer term fundamentals, but thought things got out of hand in the short term. | 2005-05-04 | |
| PAST TOP SHORT | | Cinram | CRW.UN-T | 26.500 | (A Top Pick Jan 17/05. Up 26%.) When the stock got down to the high teens, they went long. Sold their position a few weeks ago. | 2005-05-04 | |
| BUY | | C.I.Fund Management | CIX-T | 17.050 | Has a yield of about 3.5% and is very well supported by the $1.25/1.50 a share free cash flow that they generate. Balance sheet is impeccable. Management is very street smart. Speculation that there will be a catalyst event that will create good upside, but doesn’t know when this will occur. Good solid blue chip company. | 2005-05-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Inco | N-T | 45.400 | This is clearly a proxy on the price of nickel. They have yet to make a quarter where they make the hay that they should have made given the price of nickel for the last 18 months. Cyclicals are in the midst of a cyclical correction. | 2005-05-04 | |
| BUY | | Canadian National R.R. | CNR-T | 73.990 | A globally competitive large cap. It’s clearly at the top of the class in North America. Have this paired by owning this and shorting CP Rail (CP-T). This company will be correlated with respect to the economy. | 2005-05-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Canadian Pacific Rail | CP-T | 45.140 | Have this paired by shorting this and owning CNR (CNR-T). CP got a little ahead of itself in the short term as a result of the coal settlement. | 2005-05-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | | UTS Energy | UTS-T | 2.070 | A concept stock. Has no earnings or cash flow at this time. A heavy oil play in western Canada. If you are really bullish on oil out 2/3 years, they can make a lot of money. | 2005-05-04 | |
| BUY | | Viterra Inc | VT-T | 5.540 | Have just gone through a restructuring. The rights offering is expected to close by the end of May. Between now and then you can get some funny action in the stock. When it’s all over, you will have a much stronger company. The fundamental profile for the business continues to improve. Open to a takeover or merger. | 2005-05-04 | |
| WAIT | | Cameco Corporation | CCO-T | 52.280 | If oil comes off, uranium might come off in the short term. Would wait for a few months before buying. Longer term, it’s a world class company. | 2005-05-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | | MBNA Corp | KRB-N | 19.970 | Credit markets will develop in Asia but its longer term situation developing relative to the challenges they will continue to have in the US market where consumption is going to slow down will not be good for the company. | 2005-05-04 | |
| TOP PICK | | CASH | CASH | 20.450 | Good to keep you powder dry. The market is churning trying to figure out what it wants to do. Expects foreigners will continue to buy US treasury bonds and hence interest rates will stay relatively benign. Summer tends to be a time for tougher market conditions. | 2005-05-04 | |
| TOP PICK | | Zarlink | ZL-T | 2.050 | Has almost $1 a share in cash which would imply an enterprise value for their business of $60/70 million. Seems to be an incredibly cheap stock that had materially under performed some of its peers. | 2005-05-04 | |
| TOP PICK | | CBRL Group Inc. | CBRL-Q | 39.630 | Cracker barrel stores. Restructured a few years ago and has been doing very well. Excellent same store sales. Has been hurt as a result of rising oil prices. Has been hurt inordinately relative to the prospects. | 2005-05-04 | |
| BUY | | Pfizer Inc | PFE-N | 26.800 | FDA has given the OK on the controversial drugs. Pfizer is a very strong company and has the best pipeline of all the large drug companies. Continues to generate billions of $'s of free cash flow. YOu won't get rich, but you'll make some money. | 2005-02-18 | |
| BUY | | C.I.Fund Management | CIX-T | 17.320 | Generates tremendous amounts of free cash flow. A nice, secure, reasonably fat dividend with upside potential. | 2005-02-18 | |
| BUY | | Niko Resources | NKO-T | 61.000 | Ultimately has the potential to go to $100. Excellent fundamentals. Have multiple projects in India and Bangladesh. Some very positive developments in Bangladesh. Several catalysts that could come out in the next several months. | 2005-02-18 | |
| BUY | | Pan Ocean Energy Corp Ltd (B) | POC.B-T | 30.700 | Has had a very good performance. Finding lots of oil. Expects to see a materially higher exit rate for their oil production than what it's at today. Could be a complete collapse in the share structure between the voting/non-voting stock which would be very beneficial to the share price. Good solid company. | 2005-02-18 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Merck & Company | MRK-N | 32.610 | Would prefer Pfizer (PFE-N) which has a far superior pipeline. | 2005-02-18 | |
| TOP SHORT | | General Motors Corporation | GM-N | 37.300 | Has got problems left, right and centre. Owes Fiat a couple of billion $'s. Sales were down 7% last month. Have a lot of health care obligations. | 2005-02-18 | |
| WAIT | | Centurion Energy International | CUX-T | 17.870 | Had a big run over the last year, but an incredibly large run in the last week or two. Have a couple of mini-elephant wells they will be drilling this year. There'll also be a material increase in their oil production. What is really getting the stock going is the perceived buy-out of First Calgary (FCP-T) and this company will be next. Wait for it to settle down. | 2005-02-18 | |
| BUY | | Shoppers Drug Mart Corp | SC-T | 42.750 | A class act. Getting pricey, but if you want retail this is one of the better. | 2005-02-18 | |
| WEAK BUY | | Manulife Financial | MFC-T | 58.250 | Interest rates will be going up. This tends to be bad for financials, but they have tools in place to hold problems to a minimum. Life companies will do better than banks. OK for a blue-chip portfolio or to balance a portfolio. | 2005-02-18 | |
| TOP PICK | | BCE Inc. | BCE-T | 29.270 | This is a "pairs trade" to go with a SHORT on Rogers Communication (RCI.NV.B-T). Pays a dividend that's equivalent to a 4.1% yield. Has the potential to surprise on the upside. Feels their revenue growth has been artificially depressed. | 2005-02-18 | |
| TOP SHORT | | Rogers Communcations (B) | RCI.B-T | 33.620 | This is a "pairs trade" to go with a BUY on BCE (BCE-T). Had a big run. Have bitten off a fair size acquisition with Microcell, so potential for some indigestion problems. Have cut guidance on the cable side and increased their capital spending. No dividend. | 2005-02-18 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Labopharm Inc | DDS-T | 4.170 | Received approval in France for its drug tramadol. Has stubbed its toes many times with investors. Large outstanding stock holding (40 Million?) could come out and flood the market. | 2005-01-17 | |
| HOLD | | Sunlife Financial | SLF-T | 39.950 | An excellent world class company. Management has a pragmatic program in place regarding growth, both on money management and insurance sides of the business. Good yield. Buying back shares. Prefers property/casualty companies for growth over life companies and life companies over banks. | 2005-01-17 | |
| SELL | | Martinrea | MRE-T | 5.000 | Shares took a jump up but would be cautious. Canadian auto makers have structural problems. Cdn$ is very negative for them. A lot of dependence on the big 3 and he is bearish on the big 3. Very illiquid shares. | 2005-01-17 | |
| BUY | | Teck Cominco Ltd. (B) | TCK.B-T | 35.600 | Likes their holdings in metalurgical coal as the outlook is pretty bouyant for the forseeable future. Also likes some of their base metal plays. | 2005-01-17 | |
| BUY | | Russel Metals | RUS-T | 14.990 | High yield is sustainable for the foreseeable future. As a distributor, not a manufacturer, there is a lag relationship with respect to Russel's profits on inventory and hence balance sheets. Very conservatively managed company. A conservative way to be exposed to steel. Spot price on steels is vulnerable so could affect them down the road. | 2005-01-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Rogers Communcations (B) | RCI.B-T | 30.820 | Outlook for the industry is continued head bashing between the telco's and the cable companies. Pretty tough to make a lot of money other than as trading positions. This one was a marvelous trade in the late 2004. Tough for the stock to have a big move from here. Dead money. | 2005-01-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | | BCE Inc. | BCE-T | 30.090 | Outlook for the industry is continued head bashing between telco's and cable companies. Pretty tough to make a lot of money other than as trading positions. Good dividend. Dead money. | 2005-01-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Bennet Environmental | BEV-T | 4.110 | Shorted the stock in the early summer of '04 but covered at around $5. Recently raised more money which gave them a little more life. Very illiquid stock. Management has a tremendous amount of baggage that will have to be dealt with to regain street confidence. A lot of clouds around the operations. | 2005-01-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Eyetech Pharmaceuticals | EYET-Q | 39.400 | He is shorting with a paired/trade situation being long on QLT. Going to have problems in generating the optimistic revenue line that people are expecting. | 2005-01-17 | |
| BUY | | QLT Inc | QLT-T | 20.050 | Closed their merger in December, so hopefully the share price indigestion that comes with mergers is over. Fundamentally not expensive, Chart is interesting. Balance sheet is in good shape. His holdings is on a paired/trade situation with a short on Eyetech (EYET-Q). Very beaten up stock, but has some decent prospects. | 2005-01-17 | |
| BUY | | Niko Resources | NKO-T | 53.900 | There are a tremendous number of potential catalysts over the next 6 months. | 2005-01-17 | |
| BUY | | Talisman Energy | TLM-T | 36.000 | Very well managed company that has been unable to get out of the credibility problem from their previous holdings in Sudan. Good production growth on a per share basis. Great way to play the leverage in oil/gas pricing. Good, solid, long term hold. | 2005-01-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Coolbrands (A) Sold to Nestle | COB.A-T | 7.760 | Missed their numbers. Won't know by how much until after 5pm Jan 18. The generation of free cash flow will be much lower with the loss of their contracts. On a valuation basis, market would probably jump in at $6. | 2005-01-17 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Transalta Corp | TA-T | 18.810 | (A Top Pick Sept 8/04. Up 18%.) Liquidated the position in late '04. Was on a paired trade with being long on this one. | 2005-01-17 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | CM-T | 69.810 | (A Top Pick Sept 8/04. Up 5.6%.) Less inclined towards financials then other areas of the market and less inclined towards the banking sector in financials. For the individual investor, banks are rock solid, blue chip, good yielding investments and should be part of anyone's diversified portfolio. | 2005-01-17 | |
| PAST TOP SHORT | | Vasogin | VAS-T | 6.160 | (A Top Short Sept 8/04. Sold in low $5's so he's ahead about 19%.) | 2005-01-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Canadian Pacific Ships | TEU-T | 16.000 | Just got a $140 million, 10 year contract. This is small for a company this size. A little too early to look at this stock. Still some clouds in the non-operating environment, but some problems operationally as well. Too exposed to Europe as opposed to Asia. | 2005-01-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Canadian Natural Rsrcs | CNQ-T | 52.570 | The highest beta large cap energy in Canada. Depends on your view of oil for the next 6 months. Feels there is some downside risk in oil the next 6 months and upside beyond. However China looks like it will be having a pipeline. Still feels there will be downside near term. | 2005-01-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Hudson's Bay Co (debenture) | HBC.DB.A-T | 107.000 | Very illiquid debentures. Fundamentally, all the shares of soft good retailers and department stores are challenged at this time. | 2005-01-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Google | GOOG-Q | 199.970 | Cautious on the market in general because of the likelihood of rising interest rates and declining growth rates in corporate profits. Would prefer being long on more value oriented lower priced securities and short more expensive securities. Can't see how this stock can have another big run. | 2005-01-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. | GT-N | 15.320 | Had a pretty big run over the last several months. Incredibly leveraged to oil prices. Rubber prices pulled back over the last quarter which gave them a move. At $15 this is not a value stock. | 2005-01-17 | |
| WEAK BUY | | Centurion Energy International | CUX-T | 14.450 | Has had a huge run. There will be ongoing production growth in '05. They will be drilling a couple of high prospect wells. Would be cautious about jumping in, in a big way, but OK to dip your toe in. | 2005-01-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | | General Motors Corporation | GM-N | 37.130 | Yield is about 5.9% which is appealing. The company has some very big structural problems such as competition from Asia and pension costs. He is short this stock. | 2005-01-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Great West Lifeco | GWO-T | 26.100 | In the life sector would prefer Manulife. Great West has exposure to the rising Cdn$ because of their US business. Some of their holdings will have some challenges in profit excpectations. | 2005-01-17 | |
| BUY | | Cameco Corporation | CCO-T | 41.910 | If long term contracts start seeing $25/27 versus $22for uranium, then this stock is the only large cap uranium play for global investors. | 2005-01-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Norske Skog Canada Ltd. | NS-T | 3.490 | Company has tended to have quite a few problems over the last few years as they are not necessarily the lowest cost/highest quality of their product. Also had indigestion problems with some of their acquisitions. Would prefer others in that sector. | 2005-01-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Inco | N-T | 42.100 | Has always been a puzzle. In spite of a very bouyant price for nickel, they have always continued to disappoint on an operational front. Would prefer to be long with a junior growth oriented play, such as LionOre (LIM-T) or others. | 2005-01-17 | |
| BUY | | LionOre Mining International | LIM-T | 6.350 | Prefers to be long with a junior growth oriented play, such as this one rather than owning Inco. | 2005-01-17 | |
| TOP PICK | | BHP Billiton Ltd. | BHP-N | 23.900 | An Australian company. One of the world's largest producers of natural resources. Its key commodities are iron ore, metalurgical coal and oil. Trades at about 8/9 X earnings. Nice dividend yield. Throws off gobs of free cash. A very good vehicle to play the Chinese secular boom. | 2005-01-17 | |
| TOP SHORT | | Cinram | CRW.UN-T | 21.000 | Has stumbled a couple of times in the last few months. Having problems on the imput cost side of things. Penetration of DVD in North America has reached a point where growth rates will slow down for their product. | 2005-01-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Bombardier Inc (B) | BBD.B-T | 2.890 | Have shorted this stock periodically. Incedibly anemic profit margins. | 2004-09-27 | |
| VAGUE | | Canadian Natural Rsrcs | CNQ-T | 48.230 | Leveraged to oil. A marvelous company. Dirt cheap. If oil drops, this stock will drop too. | 2004-09-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Norbord Inc. | NBD-T | 11.940 | OSB (oriented strand board) is a highly cyclical business. Looks very cheap on current year's earnings. Brascan sold of its shares very cheap, so supply exceeded demand. Dead money in the short term. | 2004-09-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Patheon | PTI-T | 9.150 | Has disappointed for one too many quarters. | 2004-09-27 | |
| TOP SHORT | | Westjet Airlines | WJA-T | 12.840 | Fuel prices are very high and the company is unhedged. An incredibly competitive industry. | 2004-09-27 | |
| BUY | | Husky Energy | HSE-T | 29.910 | Vertically integrated and have growth prospects with their new upgrader that is coming on stream, so not as exposed to heavy oil prices. | 2004-09-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Lucent Technologies | LU-N | 3.110 | Will be challenged as we go forward. If he wanted to go into this sector down the road, would prefer Cisco. | 2004-09-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Nortel | NT-T | 4.140 | Will be challenged as we go forward. If he wanted to go into this sector down the road, would prefer Cisco. | 2004-09-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Cisco | CSCO-Q | 18.040 | Will be challenged as we go forward. If he wanted to go into this sector down the road, would prefer Cisco over others. | 2004-09-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | | ATS Automation | ATA-T | 10.400 | Have a couple of interesting venture capital plays. Company has always troubled him because it is run like a private company, disclosure has not been good and very lumpy earnings. | 2004-09-27 | |
| TOP PICK | | Southwestern Resources | SWG-T | 12.360 | Has a couple of interesting asset plays, one in Peru and one in China. Expects news out of Peru in the near term. Speculative. | 2004-09-27 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | | Manulife Financial | MFC-T | 54.660 | World class company. Steady grower which has accelerated through their acquisition of John Hancock. May be a little extended and could pull back a little. A long term hold. | 2004-09-27 | |
| TOP PICK | | BHP Billiton Ltd. | BHP-N | 19.690 | Expects economies, especially the US, will roll over. However, Asia has lots of growth, so commodities will be in demand. Small debt. Good cash flow. | 2004-09-27 | |
| BUY | | Power Financial Corp | PWF-T | 28.750 | World class company. Steady grower. A long term hold. | 2004-09-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Manitoba Telecom Services | MBT-T | 43.170 | Will be in a tough spot as we go forward. Business is declining faster than the company expected. Attractive yield at 6% but down the road may have to cut it. | 2004-09-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Centurion Energy International | CUX-T | 7.800 | Has had a massive run over the last few weeks. Could move up towards $10 but are a touch ahead of themselves at present. | 2004-09-27 | |
| TOP SHORT | | Vasogin | VAS-T | 6.500 | Doesn't feel they have a lot of R&D to show. Have a lot of cash on the books. | 2004-09-08 | |
| TOP PICK | | Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | CM-T | 66.190 | Developing a very interesting strategy of shrinking. Going to take their excess capital and buy shares back. | 2004-09-08 | |
| TOP PICK | | Transalta Corp | TA-T | 15.910 | Yields about 6.6%. Believes this dividend is sustainable. They are hedged on the coal side. Feels they will win some contracts from the Ontario government. | 2004-09-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Valero Energy Corp | VLO-N | 66.700 | Shortening the stock at this point. Came out with an earnings warning recently. Fundamentals are pretty good and price is pretty cheap but will continue to have tough sledding. | 2004-09-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Pfizer Inc | PFE-N | 32.770 | Feels the US drug companies will continue to have tough sledding because of generics. This company is better equipped to fight that. Growth through acquisition. | 2004-09-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Thomson Reuters Corp | TRI-T | 43.500 | Marvelous world-class company with great products. May tend to overpay for their assets at the expense of near-term earnings. | 2004-09-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | | QLT Inc | QLT-T | 19.160 | Revenues and earnings are doing pretty well. Trades at about 18 X earnings. A lot of cash. Involved in a questionable acquisition in the US. Some competition. We'll continue to stall in the foreseeable future. | 2004-09-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Patheon | PTI-T | 8.250 | Has delivered another poor quarter making it 3 or 4 in a row. | 2004-09-08 | |
| BUY | | Bank of Nova Scotia | BNS-T | 35.930 | Has a very tough job on its hands. Generating about $400 million every quarter in excess capital and want to make 20% on this capital which will be tough to do. Good for long-term hold. | 2004-09-08 | |
| BUY | | Imperial Oil | IMO-T | 61.980 | In the long-term, the prospects for a dividend paying stocks such as this are good. | 2004-09-08 | |
| BUY | | Niko Resources | NKO-T | 35.000 | Likes the long-term prospects for this company. | 2004-09-08 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Sunlife Financial | SLF-T | 36.200 | (A Top Pick Jan 26/04. Up 3.4%.) | 2004-09-08 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Oilexco Inc | OIL-T | 3.660 | (A Top Pick Jan 26/04. Up 49%.) Sold off. | 2004-09-08 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | | Agnico-Eagle Mines | AEM-T | 16.820 | (A Top Pick Jan 26/04. No change.) Gold has hold off, so they sold their stock. | 2004-09-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Encana Corp | ECA-T | 54.000 | In the short term, they will be challenged in that they get a significant amount of earnings from their gas storage facilities in the US. | 2004-09-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Bombardier Inc (B) | BBD.B-T | 3.000 | Will continue to have a very tough time. Their customers continue to be in very poor financial shape. | 2004-09-08 | |
| WEAK BUY | | Nokia | NOK-N | 12.710 | Lost market share earlier this year. Starting to gain some market share back. Talking about hiking their dividends. We'll continue to be tough going. OK as a long-term buy. | 2004-09-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | | BCE Inc. | BCE-T | 28.180 | Strong market share and clean balance sheet offers good yield support. In an incredibly competitive environment. Will be tough sledding. | 2004-09-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Sierra Wireless | SW-T | 24.990 | This business is increasingly commodized. Will be tough. Shorted the stock but have not cover their positions. | 2004-09-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | | Intel | INTC-Q | 19.720 | They have 80/90% of the global chip market. A commodity business. We'll have to reinvent themselves as a company with proprietary products. | 2004-09-08 | |
| BUY | | C.I.Fund Management | CIX-T | 15.960 | Sales of mutual funds has had a rough few months and will continue to do so, this company is the cash generating machine. 3.8% yield. Well-run. | 2004-09-08 | |
| WAIT | | Jean Coutu Group (PJC) (A) | PJC.A-T | 16.680 | Have the wherewithal to address the issues that are imperative to benefit from the large transaction recently made. It'll be a tough haul for them. | 2004-09-08 | |
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