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Andrew Guy, CFA of Sentry Select Capital Corp.
The Exchange Tower
130 King Street West, Suite 2850
Toronto ON
M5X 1A4
416-861-8729
Andrew Guy, CFA's website
Toll Free: 416-861-8729
Fax: 416-364-1197
info@sentryselect.com

Opinions from Andrew Guy, CFA

WAITMicrosoftMSFT-Q29.160A very cash generative business. Nice dividend yield of almost 2%. Not expensive at 15X next year's earnings. Attempting to acquire Yahoo (YAHOO-Q) and hedge funds are getting involved, creating some volatility, so there is no rush to get into this stock yet.2008-04-07
CommentA Comment -- General Comments From an ExpertA Commentary0.020Oil: -- He has been using a very wide range for the price of oil, $70-$100. At the upper end, which is where we are now, you are discounting some of the greater risks. However, looking at the cost of getting oil out of the ground and getting a decent return, $70 is a justified lower end. Wouldn't be surprised to see some weakness in oil prices. That would be the time to start picking up some oil companies.2008-04-07
BUYCitiGroupC-N24.600The bank that has had the biggest trouble given its size and exposure to institutional business. Probably past the worst and doesn't think there's much risk of a cut in dividends again. There will be volatility. Buy now and in 5 years you will look like a hero, but in the next 3 to 6 months you probably will have a chance to buy it much cheaper.2008-04-07
BUYBank of AmericaBAC-N39.500Biggest retail bank in the US and the big hits are taking place more on the institutional side. Dividend of 6% plus is very safe.2008-04-07
CommentCanadian Imperial Bank of CommerceCM-T68.900This one depends on your time horizon. This bank had the biggest exposure to the most risky part of the business. However, looking at the valuation levels, it is the cheapest bank out there. Expects the better quality banks will move sooner but you won't get the same total return.2008-04-07
DON'T BUYResearch In MotionRIM-T119.980Has a lot of trouble with this company. He respects the company very much but feels it is a lousy stock. The company will continue to grow, but when you look at the multiple of 35X earnings it is expensive. Compared to other global technology companies, with a broader portfolio product mix and growing in a similar range he'd rather own others.2008-04-07
TOP PICKToronto DominionTD-T63.400Has done a great job of managing its business for a number of years. Missed the ABCP problems and haven't been exposed to CDO’s in any meaningful way. Indicates good management. Trades at a bit of a premium to the average. If you are worried about volatility, this is a safer place.2008-04-07
TOP PICKBCE Inc.BCE-T36.15080% chance that the Teachers Pension deal will go ahead. At the current price, with the takeover at $42.75, this gives you a 17.5 % return over the next 2 months. Annualized that is well over 100% return.2008-04-07
TOP PICKCalloway REITCWT.UN-T21.050Even in a situation of a slowing economy, when you are at Wal-Mart's largest landlord in Canada, you can only benefit from this. Even if Wal-Mart doesn't grow, everybody wants to be in their area. Trading at a conservative 13% discount to its NAV.2008-04-07
BUYRioCan Real Estate InvestmentREI.UN-T21.690Very well managed company. Probably one of the 2 or 3 core REIT’s you can own. Did a new issue today, which should help them as they have some big commitments and this should help them finance them.2008-04-07
CommentBombardier Inc (B)BBD.B-T6.400They have clearly turned around the business that they have today. Getting wider margins on the aerospace business. Strong transport business that generates strong free cash flow. The problem is trying to figure out what the family wants to do. Will it be a growth company or a cash cow? The C series that they are talking about doing is a big number at $3 billion and what is Boeing's and Airbus’s response.2008-04-07
BUYYellow Pages Income FundYLO.UN-T11.120One of the best management teams he has ever met. Very stable, very strong cash flow generating ability. Will continue to be able to pay its dividend.2008-04-07
TOP PICKToronto DominionTD-T66.680Very good opportunity at this point. Very strong management team and has the largest retail exposure, which should continue to do well.2008-02-06
TOP PICKBCE Inc.BCE-T34.900Latest earnings report suggests that the deal is going to go through. Gives about a 20% annualized return to the $42.75 target. There is also a dividend in the near term.2008-02-06
TOP PICKCalloway REITCWT.UN-T23.370Trading at a discount to its NAV at about 12%-13%. 7% free cash flow yield. Very attractively valued. Likes that it is Wal-Mart's landlord in Canada.2008-02-06
PAST TOP PICKResolve Business Outsourcing Income FundRBO.UN-T7.700(A Top Pick Feb 8/07. Down 5% including distributions.) Didn't deliver on expectations, largely because of management's inability to flow through good top line results to the bottom line. A lot of potential good things. It's a Buy if management can go through the results. Watch.2008-02-06
PAST TOP PICKYellow Pages Income FundYLO.UN-T12.130(A Top Pick Feb 8/07. Up 2% including distributions.) Still likes. Management has done a great job of anticipating how quickly to move the business online.2008-02-06
PAST TOP PICKMullen Group Income FundMTL.UN-T16.270(A Top Pick Feb 8/07. Down 9% including distributions.) Yield is more than 11% but should be safe. Generates good growth in cash flows. Stock is off because the movement of drilling rigs is down. The rest of their business is doing well. Still a Buy.2008-02-06
HOLDTalisman EnergyTLM-T15.500Always seems to be good value and cheaper than its competitors. Have some very interesting assets in Indonesia, etc. where they are generating some good growth. New CEO has come out with a new strategy and direction, which seems to be little more opportunistic at surfacing value.2008-02-06
CommentBank of AmericaBAC-N42.330It is time to start picking away at opportunities. Not all the bad news is necessarily out yet. This one has a 6% yield and PE ratios below 10%. Doesn't have the exposure to the capital and investment markets that other banks have.2008-02-06
BUYGeneral ElectricGE-N34.200Very intriguing story. Tends to be very volatile and to be taken as a proxy for the broader US economy. Significant amount of their business is outside of the US, so it is a play on Asian growth and Europe. It will benefit from the weaker US$. For a long-term point of view it is also a way of playing the green economy. Aggressively moving into this area.2008-02-06
DON'T BUYConnors Bros. Income FundCBF.UN-T7.400Distribution story has been a long-term issue. Have had to cut them several times. It took too much debt onto its balance sheet. Income trusts have to have very conservative balance sheets.2008-02-06
BUYBank of Nova ScotiaBNS-T47.900The banks are all attractively valued at this point. This one is the international bank. Growing a great franchise in Latin America and has done a very good job of building those banks. Excellent management team that is always focused on costs.2008-02-06
BUYKinross GoldK-T21.290Likes gold companies that are growing their production and are generating cash flow.2008-02-06
BUYAgnico-Eagle MinesAEM-T60.430Likes gold companies that are growing their production and are generating cash flow.2008-02-06
DON'T BUYMacquarie Power Income FundMPT.UN-T8.130It's parent company MacQuarie out of Australia, has done a great job of building on a global basis. This company came out as a power income trust, acquired a couple of companies on the cheap, but ended up as a bit of a hodgepodge and lost the interest of the market that was looking for a pure play. Cash flows are relatively safe but there is nothing there to cause it to rebound quickly.2008-02-06
BUYArc Energy Trust UnitsAET.UN-T21.750A sustainable business model in the energy area where they retain a certain amount of their cash flow to continue to do the development drilling in order to maintain production. Nicely balanced between oil and gas.2008-02-06
BUYArtis Real Estate Investment TrustAX.UN-T14.820A quality name. Think Canadian commercial real estate will continue to do very well.2008-02-06
BUYH&R Real Estate Inv TrustHR.UN-T20.380The REIT space provides a great amount of opportunity. Quality large cap name. Great management team. The one issue is the Encana building in Calgary and if they will be able to finance it. 7% yield.2008-02-06
BUYRioCan Real Estate InvestmentREI.UN-T21.600A very good name. The issue with them is that it is more exposed to the retail shopping centres. If the slowdown in the US extends into Canada, this is an area that could be hit. Trades below its NAV and has a very nice free cash flow yield.2008-02-06
BUYThomson Reuters CorpTRI-T35.140A couple of issues with. 1) It is media, which tends to be more economically sensitive. 2) They are going through a merger process with Reuters, which inevitably gives a shorting of Thompson, and long Reuters. Over the long term, it is a quality name that has a very strong market position. Great company for generating free cash flow, increasing its dividend yield and is trading at a great valuation.2008-02-06
BUYThe Data Group Income FundDGI.UN-T8.690Runs the paper business, end to end for a couple of the financial institutions. Has been frustrating, as people have not recognized the value of it. Have done a really good job of building itself into the core of these large businesses. Excellent management team. 13.5% yield.2008-02-06
BUYBFI Canada Income FundBFC.UN-T24.200Waste management. A sector that is very steady through all cycles. Trading in line or slight discount to some of the US competition and there are some concerns on consolidation but they have done a great job of making acquisitions in the US. Very good management team that is able to grow its business and distributions over time.2008-02-06
BUYPetro-CanPCA-T43.120Has dropped with the general selloff of the market. This is now particularly cheap so gives you an opportunity. Thinks oil prices will probably stay in the current range.2008-02-06
BUYRoyal BankRY-T50.120(Market Call Minute.) Banks are cheap and the dividend growth story continues.2008-02-06
HOLDLaurentian BankLB-T37.390(Market Call Minute.) Other banks will do stronger and it will be harder for them to generate earnings bottom line.2008-02-06
SELLShoppers Drug Mart CorpSC-T50.680(Market Call Minute.) Great company. Bad stock. Valuation is too high.2008-02-06
SELLStarbucksSBUX-Q18.150(Market Call Minute.) It will be a while before it grows into its current valuation.2008-02-06
BUYKeystone North America Inc.KNA.UN-T7.900(Market Call Minute.) A company that has fallen off the radar screen and funeral homes is a steady business.2008-02-06
BUYParkland Income FundPKI.UN-T15.950This has been one of the better income trusts. A great play on the growth in western Canada. Provides gasoline on a rural basis and increasingly on a commercial basis. Has been helped in particular by their spreads. Great conservative management team. Disciplined balance sheet. Issued a special distribution.2007-12-27
DON'T BUYCinramCRW.UN-T5.710Now trying to move into high definition DVDs. As always, there’s a transition point, which is painful for people who own the stock. The decline in DVD’s has not as yet been offset by a demand for high definition DVDs. Was also impacted by the stronger Cdn$.2007-12-27
BUYSunlife FinancialSLF-T55.060Very disciplined management team. Have proven they can make acquisitions and integrate them all, but sometimes make too big of an acquisition and have trouble transitioning it. Hasn’t got the same credit risks as banks and very little equity exposure. Should continue to generate 15% ROE a year. Cheaper than Great West (GWO-T) and ManuLife (MFC-T).2007-12-27
CommentBank of Nova ScotiaBNS-T50.490Metrics on banks has been changing and has been tough on them for the last little while. Very strong management that is very focused on results. It is the most cost effective bank. Better at working out their loans than some of the other banks.2007-12-27
PAST TOP PICKYellow Pages Income FundYLO.UN-T13.570(A Top Pick Feb 8/07. Up 6.8%.) Still likes and could still be a Top Pick. Very disciplined management team. Generating good cash flows and increasing distributions on a steady basis.2007-12-27
PAST TOP PICKResolve Business Outsourcing Income FundRBO.UN-T7.810(A Top Pick Feb */07. Down 13.4%.) As the new businesses they were looking for came on, it brought on more costs and they haven’t been able to generate the revenues. Still optimistic. Sold his holdings.2007-12-27
PAST TOP PICKMullen Group Income FundMTL.UN-T16.840(A Top Pick Feb */07. Down 13.3%.) Oil field services have been hit. Great management team. In the long run this will continue to pay benefits and he doesn’t see any risk of distributions being cut.2007-12-27
DON'T BUYATS AutomationATA-T5.100Has 3 different parts. At any given time one of them could be doing very well and the others not so well. Trying to get out of their precision components business, which continues to be a drag on their results. Automation business continues to do well but their solar panel has had its ups and downs. Sensitive to economic conditions.2007-12-27
BUYCML Healthcare Income FundCLC.UN-T16.990Have about 1/3 of the lab services in Ontario. Trying to aggressively grow into the imaging business. Also making some moves into the US. Very good management team. Good growth company.2007-12-27
DON'T BUYTelus CorpT-T49.120Been a growth stock for the past number of years. As wireless penetration increased and more services added on, they’ve grown much quicker than expected. Now transitioning from growth into steady state. This can be painful. Wireless auction could put more pressure on them. Could see the price under $40 for a short period.2007-12-27
BUYBank of AmericaBAC-N41.460There will be noise and volatility with any of the banks. As a US bank, it has exposure to some of the issues there. Given its geographic diversification, size and scope, it could be an interesting one to pick up now. Dividend should be safe.2007-12-27
DON'T BUYPotash Corp of SaskatchewanPOT-T142.990Seasonally this is a great time to Buy this one. Farmers are optimistic at this time of year and the company benefits from that. Trading at 23X earnings while historically was 10X or 12X, so it’s extremely expensive and you have to assume China will continue to grow as rapidly for a very significant period. Too expensive.2007-12-27
WAITTalisman EnergyTLM-T18.240With the new management, he is waiting for them to talk about their outlook. Have some very good assets, especially their Asian ones.2007-12-27
TOP PICKToronto DominionTD-T68.720Avoided a lot of the banking problems. Good retail bankers. Very disciplined management. 2007-12-27
TOP PICKBCE Inc.BCE-T39.370Very high probability that the deal wit the Ontario Teachers Pension gets done in February. Risk/reward for getting the $42.75 by the end of April is very good and gives a 9% to 10% return.2007-12-27
TOP PICKCalloway REITCWT.UN-T23.200Have a lot of Wal-Mart anchoring their properties and have done a very good job of managing. If there is a slowdown in Canada, shoppers tend to trade down so Wal-Mart will not be as heavily impacted. NAV is around $27, so there is a 14%-15% discount.2007-12-27
CommentCameco CorporationCCO-T44.350Long-term outlook for uranium is good but in the next little while will be volatile. More nuclear plants are being built. It is difficult to get approval for uranium mines. Would prefer below $40.2007-11-02
HOLDBell AliantBA.UN-T30.910Continues to do very well. The one advantage they have over others is its regional focus. A very stable company. Looking at the valuations, he wouldn't buy it now.2007-11-02
SELLResearch In MotionRIM-T118.450A very good company. A Canadian leader in the technology business. On the other hand, the stock is very highly valued at 58X forward earnings.2007-11-02
BUYManulife FinancialMFC-T42.980All of the financial services companies in Canada are attractively valued. You can hold this one for the long-term.2007-11-02
BUYBoeingBA-N97.760Attractive at this point. Stock was hit because of delays. You will benefit from the weaker US$. About 50% of their earnings come from outside of the US.2007-11-02
BUYYellow Pages Income FundYLO.UN-T14.190Excellent management team, very strong cash flows and the ability to grow their dividend.2007-11-02
BUYRona IncRON-T20.780Consolidating its hardware business within Canada. Run their stores very well. Inexpensive.2007-11-02
TOP PICKToronto DominionTD-T69.210Could have picked any one of the Canadian banks. Doesn't expect there is a contagion that will flow back from the US. Percentage of its earnings from the retail business is the highest of any of the banks. Excellent management. Attractive valuation.2007-11-02
TOP PICKMethanex CorpMX-T28.250A commodity play. Very strong cash flow. Very shareholder friendly. The price of methanol has gone up 60% due to shortages and the demand remains strong.2007-11-02
TOP PICKH&R Real Estate Inv TrustHR.UN-T21.900Any time you can buy a $1 worth of assets for $.90 or less, it's a pretty good deal. Net asset value conservatively is around $25. 2007-11-02
BUYLoblawsL-T42.790Still early days for a turnaround. It has taken much longer than he would have thought. There are challenges from all fronts. $45 is a good level but you will have to be patient.2007-11-02
CommentCanexus Income FundCUS.UN-T5.740Provide crucial chemicals to the pulp and paper industry. Just came out with very poorer numbers, but a lot of them were one-time items. Excellent assets and best cost structure in the industry. 15% distribution, which he wouldn't mind seeing cut in order to maintain good cash flow.2007-07-27
TOP PICKYellow Pages Income FundYLO.UN-T13.610One of the best management teams. Adept at acquiring, integrating, taking costs out of their business and creating new business models. Supply information to Google and Yahoo. $.50 of every $1 they make flows through to shareholders. Any place below $14 is a good price.2007-07-27
CommentAltagas ServicesALA.UN-T26.840Provides services to the oil/gas sector in western Canada. Not too popular with the oil/gas people. Good company and very stable business. Not a favourite of his.2007-07-27
TOP PICKPizza Pizza Royalty Income FundPZA.UN-T9.650The dominant pizza vendor in Ontario. Just acquired a very successful, profitable and fast-growing franchise in Alberta at an attractive valuation. Income is in the form of an annual fee from the franchisees on every $1 of sales. 9% yield.2007-07-27
SELLConnors Bros. Income FundCBF.UN-T10.000Too early to go into this one yet. Management did a great job. Very proactive in recalling the tainted product (only a small portion of their business). Had to shut down a plant and not sure when that will reopen. Also have cost pressures in their core business of tuna and sardines.2007-07-27
CommentNoranda Income FundNIF.UN-T11.030Based on the results of a smelter in Quebec. They are continuing to find new supplies for that refinery. Running close to 100%. Doubt if they will be allowed to expand. Very stable.2007-07-27
CommentKeystone North America Inc.KNA.UN-T8.920Very good management team. Won't be as impacted from the tax changes as it is mainly US operations. Because it is small cap, it seems to fly below everyone's radar. Would have liked to have seen a faster pace in consolidations and acquisitions.2007-07-27
TOP PICKCalloway REITCWT.UN-T24.250Just hit a 52 week low. Yield is 6% plus. Looking for 5%-7% growth on a steady basis. 27% of its money comes from Wal-Mart, who is expected to add 10 to 20 stories in Canada over the next 5 years. Trading at a 10% discount to their NAV.2007-07-27
DON'T BUYArctic Glacier Income FundAG.UN-T13.620Has a dominant market share. Most of their business is in the US, making them very susceptible to currency changes. Bothers him that ice seems to depend on a handful of weekends during the year.2007-07-27
TOP PICKYellow Pages Income FundYLO.UN-T13.740(A Top Pick Feb 8/07. Up 6.1%.) A "free cash flow machine". For every $1 it takes in, over $.50 ends up on the bottom line and is available for increases in distribution. Growing their internet presence. One of the best Canadian management teams overall.2007-06-27
TOP PICKThe Data Group Income FundDGI.UN-T10.930Strong management team. Document management business for the big banks and largest Canadian corporations. Recently bought their largest competitor. Nice steady business.2007-06-27
TOP PICKBell AliantBA.UN-T31.440Bell Aliant Group is a fun pick. BCE owns a big part of Bell Aliant and can'tsee anything but good when the takeove is complete. Believes the evaluation over time is good. 2007-06-27
BUYCanadian Oil Sands TrustCOS.UN-T30.9605.25% yield. Will grow its distributions slowly and steadily. A sustainable business model. 40 years of oil in the ground. No drilling risks. Trading close to its NAV.2007-06-27
BUYPollard Banknote Income FundPBL.UN-T10.300Scratch card lottery. Small-cap, so there are some liquidity issues. 9.25% yield. Slow but steady growing company. Pollard family has a very large ownership position in the company, so not likely a takeover candidate.2007-06-27
HOLDMorneau Sobeco Income FundMSI.UN-T13.000Consultant on pension plans. Largest Canadian company in this sector. Carved out a very nice niche in the mid-caps. 7% yield. Good long-term hold. A little bit expensive.2007-06-27
BUYPizza Pizza Royalty Income FundPZA.UN-T9.520Expanding into Alberta with the acquisition of 2 other pizza chains. This is a good deal as it allows them to get outside of the Ontario market.2007-06-27
BUYParkland Income FundPKI.UN-T16.310Excellent management team so will continue to operate as a very good public company after 2011. Part of the recent growth on margin spreads has been historically high, so probably will not stay at these levels.2007-06-27
BUYInStorage REITIS.UN-T1.300Quality small-cap self-storage REIT. This is a model that has been very successful in the US. Very steady cash flow and low credit risk. When and if it gets listed on the TSX, it will open itself up to new buyers.2007-06-27
CommentCML Healthcare Income FundCLC.UN-T15.330Very good, slow grow, steady business. Very conservative in their calculation of distributable cash.2007-06-27
PAST TOP PICKResolve Business Outsourcing Income FundRBO.UN-T8.780(A Top Pick Feb 8/07. Down 2.8%.) A little more cautious in the near-term, but likes it longer-term. Made a couple of acquisitions making them the dominant player in the Canadian student loan business. This will add costs over the next 6 to 12 months. A Hold. 11.4% yield should be secure.2007-06-27
PAST TOP PICKMullen Group Income FundMTL.UN-T20.540(A Top Pick Feb 8/07. Up 7%.) Feels he still may be a little bit early on this name. Very tied in to the oil/gas drilling cycle in the West.2007-06-27
DON'T BUYAeroplan Income FundAER.UN-T20.690Great business, but not necessarily a great stock. Valuation is too high. Management has done a tremendous job of finding new niches and growing its business.2007-06-27
BUYGolf Town Income FundGLF.UN-T15.850Likes this one. They are retailers first, not just sellers of golf clubs. Could be a takeout down the road.2007-06-27
BUYConsumers Waterheater FundCWI.UN-T16.370A nice, steady, slow-growing business. Will continue to increase its distribution over time. Not a likely takeout candidate.2007-06-27
DON'T BUYRogers Sugar Income FundRSI.UN-T4.310Like a lot of consumer income trusts, a lot of things are going against them. Did a good job of managing what they can control, but a lot of input costs have gone against them. Sugar is not a freely tradable commodity making it difficult to get into the US.2007-06-27
HOLDNorth West Company FundNWF.UN-T19.270Excellent management team. Very strong free cash flow over time. Would prefer buying around $18-$18.50.. Hold for the long-term.2007-06-27
BUYAcadian Timber Income FundADN.UN-T11.000Timberlands business has been an excellent one over the long-term. Really a land business that happens to have trees on it. Nice, steady business.2007-06-27
SELLFording Canadian Coal Trust (Inc Trust)FDG.UN-T32.780Dependent very much on the price of coal. At the moment, most of their coal ends up going to Japan and China, which has been a growing demand. However, the key supplier into those markets has been Australia and they really set the price. Treat it as a trade, not a “buy and hold”. Would consider taking profits.2007-06-27
BUYDirectCash Income FundDCI.UN-T15.600Operates ATM machines, direct debit machines as well as cash cards. Have a very small market share. Consolidating. Good business. Reasonable payout level.2007-05-25
BUYRogers Sugar Income FundRSI.UN-T4.350US is closed and most of their sugar comes from beet farmers in the Southeast US. Roger’s can take advantage of this through their large beet farms in Alberta. Have large part of their quota in a US. Takes a lot of energy. Has a little too much debt for his purposes.2007-05-25
HOLDNewalta Income FundNAL.UN-T25.450Waste management, mainly in western Canada in the oil sands sector. A troublesome market in the 1st quarter. 118% payout ratio. Will likely recover when drilling picks up.2007-05-25
PAST TOP PICKResolve Business Outsourcing Income FundRBO.UN-T9.150(A Top Pick Feb 8/07. Flat.) Little hesitant because of the time it will take for them to show what they can do. Very strong relationships in the outsourcing business. A couple of the businesses require upfront investments in 2007 before revenue starts to hit in 2008. A Hold or By On Weakness.2007-05-25
PAST TOP PICKYellow Pages Income FundYLO.UN-T14.540(A Top Pick Feb 8/07. Up 11.9%.) Still some good upside. Market is not giving it full value.2007-05-25
PAST TOP PICKMullen Group Income FundMTL.UN-T21.700(A Top Pick Feb 8/07. Up 13.5%.) Very strong oilfield service company. Still a Buy.2007-05-25


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