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| Alan Kral , CFA, CIC of Trevor Stewart Burton & Jacobsen Inc. |
|---|
| 405 Lexington Ave |
| New York NY |
| 10174 |
| 212-972-8150 |
| Alan Kral , CFA, CIC's website |
| Fax: 212-557-0215 |
| DON'T BUY | American International Group | AIG-N | 1.460 | On it’s way to a liquidation and without any care to the shareholders. | 2009-04-21 | ||
| BUY | American Express | AXP-N | 19.570 | Has a great deal of strength. Revenue in transaction business and brokerage. | 2009-04-21 | ||
| VAGUE | Bank of America | BAC-N | 8.760 | Stock is not very far from its low. Thinks there will be a turnaround in this stock. | 2009-04-21 | ||
| DON'T BUY | CitiGroup | C-N | 3.240 | Always had the problem of putting together all there pieces. Can’t short the common stock. Is a prime candidate for a massive re-organization, possibly breaking it up. | 2009-04-21 | ||
| HOLD | Ford Motor | F-N | 3.800 | Entire auto industry is a hold until the end of June. Then we will know what shape the companies are in. Need to reset their relationships with their unions. Ford has family ownership. | 2009-04-21 | ||
| VAGUE | Freddie Mac | FMCC-Q2 | 0.860 | Was a Gov’t agency, had access to treasurer. Maybe some residual value in that company. | 2009-04-21 | ||
| BUY | General Electric | GE-N | 11.700 | Likes it. Dropped dramatically and there was an over emphasis in what was going on in this company. Thinks it will do well going forward. | 2009-04-21 | ||
| TOP PICK | Toyota | TM-N | 76.470 | Short and long term problems in industry will all work out. Not sure that domestic manufacturers will be able to satisfy the demand. Toyota is pretty well positioned. Risk is that it is too big. One of the others could come in and undercut them. | 2009-04-21 | ||
| BUY | A T & T US | T-N | 25.280 | Transition from landlines to cell phones will be the driving force going forward. Pretty well positioned going forward. | 2009-04-21 | ||
| DON'T BUY | UnitedHealth Group Inc | UNH-N | 22.800 | Political environment for health insurers is going to be very clouded. Insurance companies are going to be the whipping boys for the reforms that are going to come. They are going to be tough. | 2009-04-21 | ||
| TOP PICK | Monsanto Company | MON-N | 79.500 | Agricultural chemicals and seeds are very well placed in the world economy. Will come back well when the economy recovers. Biggest risk would be trade barriers. | 2009-04-21 | ||
| Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | What we have seen over the last two months is a change in the psychology. We are not seeing stocks fall like dominos. People are building some confidence. Thinks manufacturers’ inventories have bottomed out and production will have to resume. | 2009-04-21 | ||
| TOP PICK | Kansas City Southern | KSU-N | 16.070 | As inventories bottom, there will be a sharp increase in transportation. This is the exclusive carrier out of Mexico. A Canadian railroad may want to buy one of the US ones. | 2009-04-21 | ||
| TOP PICK | Caterpillar | CAT-N | 42.380 | Premier construction company in the world. Will be stimulated as it generates a lot of jobs. It is well positioned. There is a risk if there is a delay in the introduction of the infrastructure program. | 2008-12-09 | ||
| WEAK BUY | Fannie Mae | FNMA-Q2 | 0.790 | They are contemplating a reverse stock split. Management says there is value there. A real possibility it could survive. | 2008-12-09 | ||
| WEAK BUY | Freddie Mac | FMCC-Q2 | 0.790 | They are contemplating a reverse stock split. Management says there is value there. A real possibility it could survive. | 2008-12-09 | ||
| BUY | General Electric | GE-N | 17.780 | He's just recently purchased it, and he likes the name. It's in a position to really participate in the stimulus infrastructure program that the (US) government is talking about. It went down to $10 but feels it is too low. Could recover, and is well priced. | 2008-12-09 | ||
| WEAK BUY | Altria Group Inc | MO-N | 14.930 | Dividend is safe for awhile. Stock price is down. In the long term they have good cash flow, but they they may be at legal liability with tobacco. If willing to take risk may be compensated. | 2008-12-09 | ||
| VAGUE | Pfizer Inc | PFE-N | 16.470 | Manufactures of the drug lipidore (the most popular cholesterol drug) Their patent is running out in 2011 - 2012 and they are considering walking away and getting into cancer drugs. | 2008-12-09 | ||
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| BUY | Proctor & Gamble | PG-N | 59.790 | He looks at it as positive. Management is efficient, one of the better ones to be involved in. | 2008-12-09 | ||
| WEAK BUY | United Technologies | UTX-N | 47.970 | Engineering and infrastructure company that could gain from the (US) government stimulus program. There is a lot going on in the company, they are involved in a lot of different things. | 2008-12-09 | ||
| BUY | Wal-Mart Stores Inc. | WMT-N | 55.810 | Best defensive stock you can find. One of the 2 stocks up in Dow Jones over the last two years. Positioned to gain market share. Would buy for a defensive portfolio. They have control of the situation. Is considering buying. | 2008-12-09 | ||
| TOP PICK | URS Corp | URS-N | 39.400 | Largest engineering firm in the US. They are big on roads, nuclear power plants, and football stadiums. They have a handle on knowing what needs to be done, and what people are interested in doing. | 2008-12-09 | ||
| Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Feels that the market is totally in the hands of the US Congress. Feels that the money will be provided to the big three automakers, but there will be conditions, restrictions and performance goals. They need conditions that will let them compete. Feels government caused the problems that they have today and they have to fix it. In favour of the new administration because it will boost confidence in the economy. But there may be problems down the road for Canadians as some of the accords may not be followed. Protectionism is a real risk. Problem is that the banks are not lending, we need to get the economy going. | 2008-12-09 | ||
| Comment | A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert | A Commentary | 0.020 | Pharmaceuticals: The (US) government is not healthcare friendly. There are cost problems keeping it affordable. A lot of pressure in pharmaceuticals. | 2008-12-09 | ||
| TOP PICK | Vulcan Materials Co. | VMC-N | 69.680 | They are an aggregate company where they supply cement stone and gravel. Other companies will need materials to build projects. Company has a lot of leverage, and will perform well going forward. | 2008-12-09 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (B) | BRK.B-N | 3.000 | Has not suffered as much is the other financial industry’s stocks. Although it hasn't gone down as much as others, he doesn't expect it to go up as much as others. | 2008-10-28 | ||
| TOP PICK | Caterpillar | CAT-N | 34.950 | (His 3 Top Picks tonight are a package.) Heavy equipment provider. Whoever gets elected, there will be another stimulus package coming out of Congress in the very short-term and into infrastructure. | 2008-10-28 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Cisco | CSCO-Q | 18.310 | Technology is the industry that is most sensitive to the closing off of corporate credit in the US. Most of the big-ticket items that go into technology or rooms ultimately drive this company in a communication, router, etc. sense. The problem is starting to unwind and this company will probably respond rapidly. Will be pretty difficult to make any money here right now. | 2008-10-28 | ||
| BUY | Deere & Co. | DE-N | 33.270 | Agricultural exports get hurt with a rising US$. US agriculture is very well supported on a subsidy and competitive basis. This company should do well. | 2008-10-28 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Ford Motor | F-N | 2.150 | Auto companies are being whipsawed by oil prices and the economy. Will ultimately be hurt by protectionism in the US and globally. Outlook is very difficult. Dealers are having a great deal of difficulty in financing their inventories. | 2008-10-28 | ||
| DON'T BUY | General Motors Corporation | GM-N | 6.250 | Auto companies are being whipsawed by oil prices and the economy. Will ultimately be hurt by protectionism in the US and globally. Outlook is very difficult. Dealers are having a great deal of difficulty in financing their inventories. | 2008-10-28 | ||
| Comment | Home Depot | HD-N | 21.570 | If you believe, as he does, that housing is at or very close to a bottom, this will be a decent stock. He also owns Lowes (LOW-N), which he thinks is a higher quality vision for the consumer market. Consider selling this and buying Lowes | 2008-10-28 | ||
| BUY on WEAKNESS | ING Groep NV | ING-N | 7.810 | Doesn't think dividend cuts are probable in most of the banking industry. When perception of corporate risk turns, these stocks are going to bounce back quickly. If you own, you could average down. Even if we haven't got all the way to the bottom, snap backs are real easy to come by. | 2008-10-28 | ||
| Comment | Proctor & Gamble | PG-N | 63.230 | When the US$ got weak, earnings increased. That has now been reversed. Spinning off its Folgers operation at a 14% premium. He is tendering his holdings. | 2008-10-28 | ||
| TOP PICK | URS Corp | URS-N | 23.490 | (His 3 Top Picks tonight are a package.) A contracting company and designer of infrastructure. Whoever gets elected, there will be another stimulus package coming out of Congress in the very short-term and into infrastructure. | 2008-10-28 | ||
| DON'T BUY | XL Capital Ltd. | XL-N | 8.270 | An offshore insurance company. There is significant risk to the dividend. Saw its reputation erode over the past few years irrespective of the current financial crisis. | 2008-10-28 | ||
| TOP PICK | Vulcan Materials Co. | VMC-N | 47.510 | (His 3 Top Picks tonight are a package.) This company supplies cement/concrete. Whoever gets elected, there will be another stimulus package coming out of Congress in the very short-term and into infrastructure. | 2008-10-28 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Alcoa | AA-N | 26.820 | Stock got ahead of itself based on emerging market competition hiding. Some smelters recently closed down which should cut down on supply but stock continues to drop. Won't be priced on earnings but on expectations of the price of aluminium. Expects more downside. | 2008-09-09 | ||
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| BUY | American International Group | AIG-N | 18.370 | Besides insurance they are very aggressive in derivative type securities. Almost all financial companies in that business had been struck. AIG has the added problem of a reputational risk. Although the insurance book of business is very good they are going to have to weather the next few months. Could see a nice bounce in the near future. | 2008-09-09 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Bank of America | BAC-N | 32.520 | This one has been a relatively strong stock in the past few weeks. However, they are still faced with the problems of Countrywide. If there is another wave of doubt regarding the financials, every bank will be hit by it. | 2008-09-09 | ||
| DON'T BUY | CitiGroup | C-N | 18.880 | Fate of the US financials is in the hands of the regulators, treasurer and federal reserve bank. This one is as well positioned as any of them to survive and thrive. There will be a drastic change in the regulatory regime so rapid earnings growth will be limited. | 2008-09-09 | ||
| BUY | Cisco | CSCO-Q | 22.970 | Probably the best placed of the equipment suppliers in terms of the Internet global transformation. However, pricing power is a big negative in this industry. | 2008-09-09 | ||
| Comment | General Electric | GE-N | 28.120 | Have a number of different underlying businesses, all of which could perceive to be relatively negative if there is a slowdown in financing. It is run very well. If the new chairman gets his stamp on the company it could do very well. | 2008-09-09 | ||
| TOP PICK | Honda Motor Ltd. | HMC-N | 32.150 | 2.5% dividend. There will have to be a response in the automobile industry to high energy prices. This company is the furthest along the line in terms of hybrid and miles per gallon. Have a leg up on everybody else. | 2008-09-09 | ||
| WEAK BUY | Coca-Cola Company | KO-N | 53.880 | Been very successful over the last couple of years because of international exposure, especially in China. Also benefited with the decline in the US$. Some question now as to whether the great growth overseas is going to continue. Dollar is becoming stronger so earnings will not be as strong. | 2008-09-09 | ||
| TOP PICK | Lowes Companies Inc. | LOW-N | 25.650 | This is a bit of a speculation as housing prices have dropped, which has wreaked havoc with the new home building industry. It has also stopped transactions in existing homes. Thinks people will be doing home improvements. Also thinks the housing market will come back. | 2008-09-09 | ||
| TOP PICK | McDonalds | MCD-N | 63.190 | 2.37% yield. Has done very well in growing its offerings, expanding its menu and growing its unit sales. Same-store sales are up substantially. Also benefiting from foreign currency, which is a bit of a red flag. | 2008-09-09 | ||
| BUY | A T & T US | T-N | 20.350 | Major carriers in the US are going through a tremendous change. Voice business is basically going away. The key is, can they make a transition bringing the TV and Internet into homes. It will be very expensive and will take a while. Have managed to stabilize cash flows. As long as they don't get into price wars, the stock is stable. | 2008-09-09 | ||
| TOP PICK | Automatic Data Processing | ADP-Q | 42.600 | #1 in the business. | 2008-06-12 | ||
| Comment | American International Group | AIG-N | 33.680 | Their problem is very much like General Electric’s (GE-N). There’s a question if management can survive. If they can, the stock should do OK. | 2008-06-12 | ||
| Comment | Bank of America | BAC-N | 29.440 | Believes dividends are sustainable in most of the US bank stocks. Far enough into the cycle on write-downs sub prime holdings, etc. that volatility should be over. Will be a while before it is a strong performing stock. It could have a bounce. | 2008-06-12 | ||
| TOP PICK | Caterpillar | CAT-N | 80.500 | Growth will continue in demands for their kind of products globally for agriculture, mining and infrastructure. Looking for US infrastructure boom with a new president. | 2008-06-12 | ||
| BUY | Deere & Co. | DE-N | 77.960 | Need for additional agricultural equipment as demand for food rises globally, will put a wind at their back. | 2008-06-12 | ||
| BUY | H. J. Heinz Co. | HNZ-N | 49.540 | Current tomato scare is in unprocessed tomatoes. This company processes by cooking. Agriculture in general is very strong. Very well positioned to profit going forward. | 2008-06-12 | ||
| PARTIAL SELL | McDonalds | MCD-N | 59.340 | Thinks there’s going to be some very interesting things happening with this company. Have been successful in extending their menus and have been successful globally. Benefited from the depreciating US$. If the US$ becomes stronger, it may weaken their returns. Consider trimming your position. | 2008-06-12 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Microsoft | MSFT-Q | 28.240 | Has gone through a tough time with the change in management. Vista launch was not as strong as hoped. Attempted unsuccessfully to acquire Yahoo (YHOO-Q). Not yet clear what they want to do. | 2008-06-12 | ||
| WEAK BUY | Paychex | PAYX-Q | 32.870 | Large payroll processing company. Very dependent on employment numbers. With employment under pressure, it kind of lessens its opportunities. Prefers Automatic Data Processing (ADP-N). (See Top Picks.) | 2008-06-12 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Sirius Satellite Radio | SIRI-Q | 2.400 | Looking to merge with XM Satellite (XMSR-Q) but there are problems on what they have said to the FCC. Also concerns if a lot of Americans will continue to drive cars. New subscribers to satellite radio have been weaker than expected. | 2008-06-12 | ||
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| BUY | BHP Billiton Ltd. | BHP-N | 79.220 | Likes consolidation in the resource sector. Will be able to capitalize on the growth, especially in the emerging markets. Sees global growth and growing demand for commodities. | 2008-06-12 | ||
| TOP PICK | Lincoln National Corp. | LNC-N | 50.990 | Insurance company heavily involved in the annuity business for retirees. US baby boom hit 62 in January/07 and many people are considering retirement. | 2008-06-12 | ||
| BUY | Alcoa | AA-N | 34.840 | Will probably see basic materials types of stocks doing very well going forward. Have likely entered an inflationary cycle in the US causing dollar-based assets to inflated value and the ability to people selling materials to increase prices. There is also growth in demand, especially from the 3rd world. | 2008-04-15 | ||
| Comment | General Electric | GE-N | 31.980 | Not sure that given the performance of the stock over the last couple of years that the CEO will last. There is a lot of credit with them so it could negatively impact their earnings for a couple of quarters. | 2008-04-15 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Goldman Sachs | GS-N | 164.200 | Basically dodged the bullet with sub prime mortgages, etc. Could be opportunities for traders. Highest quality investment bank you can find. Expects additional regulations for investment bankers creating significant pressure on the stock and will be lack lustre for the next couple of years. | 2008-04-15 | ||
| TOP PICK | Lowes Companies Inc. | LOW-N | 24.200 | A little more speculative in that the US is into about 6 quarters of the housing slowdown and has showed up in their earnings, but the company is still substantially profitable. Looking for the housing sector to stop dropping this year. | 2008-04-15 | ||
| TOP PICK | McDonalds | MCD-N | 55.960 | Great international stock. Profiting from the weakness in the US$. Very good at self-financing. If there is a slowdown in the economy, people might trade down from their local family restaurant. | 2008-04-15 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Pfizer Inc | PFE-N | 20.710 | US pharmaceutical sector is under tremendous pressure. Starting to see a run off in many of the product portfolios and a wind down of patent protection. With the potential change of government he expects the whole sector will be under pressure. | 2008-04-15 | ||
| DON'T BUY | State Street Corp | STT-N | 69.230 | One of the larger custodial banks and holds assets for pensions, profit sharing plans and mutual funds. The fee stream from this is probably very good and stable. Not sure the growth rate is very satisfactory to management, so started to get more aggressive and ended up hurting their reputation. Will have slow growth going forward. | 2008-04-15 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Wachovia Corp | WB-N | 25.420 | Price is depressed, but could get worse. Financial stocks like this are to be avoided, at least for the next quarter, perhaps two. Still a lot od shoes to drop. | 2008-04-15 | ||
| TOP PICK | Peabody Energy Corp | BTU-N | 63.970 | Largest coal company in the US. Positive energy pricing will continue to drive revenues higher. Have many contracts that have been signed a year in advance that are starting to roll off. Chinese demand will continue to drive up prices. The biggest negative is political because of it’s carbon. | 2008-04-15 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Transocean Inc. | RIG-N | 149.300 | Offshore oil business remains particularly robust however it is also the most volatile. If anything happens to break the price of oil, it could be a problem Very risky at these areas. | 2008-04-15 | ||
| BUY | BHP Billiton Ltd. | BHP-N | 79.800 | There is a lot of growth going on in the 3rd world so there is an opportunity for pricing strength with their commodities. The one hitch in the road for them is that they are involved in attempted takeover of Rio Tinto (RTP-N). This could cause some distractions. | 2008-04-15 | ||
| BUY | Visa Inc. | V-N | 64.350 | Will be treated as high growth and dividends won’t grow very rapidly. With any kind of retraction/recession, especially in the US, there could be some slowdown. However, their ability to grow outside the US is virtually unlimited. Not a bad time to get involved if you are prepared to hold it for 3 to 5 years. | 2008-04-15 | ||
| BUY | Adobe Systems | ADBE-Q | 43.220 | Very quiet stock in terms of visibility. Have hung onto their franchise associated with the PDF system and the transfer of documents. Very powerful tool in the office landscape. As Internet and office use grows, they will continue to succeed. | 2007-09-10 | ||
| HOLD | Bank of America | BAC-N | 48.960 | Long-term outlook is excellent, probably better than the short-term outlook. Right now it is caught in the vortex of what is going on in the US financial system with questions revolving around subprime debts and the ability of banks to finance their hold | 2007-09-10 | ||
| TOP PICK | Colgate Palmolive | CL-N | 66.690 | This is a pretty difficult environment and this tends to be a very defensive stock. Will benefit from a variety of things including rapidly rising growth in emerging markets. Also has a large exposure in Europe, which is doing better than the US. If US$ | 2007-09-10 | ||
| BUY | Corning Inc | GLW-N | 24.910 | Basically reinvented itself 3 times. From glass products, it evolved into fibre optics with explosive growth in the late 90s. Fibre optics collapsed and they moved into LCDs and screens. Willingness to move into different fields is a very strong point fo | 2007-09-10 | ||
| BUY | Goldman Sachs | GS-N | 183.610 | The leading investment bank in terms of reputation and its ability to deliver earnings. Somewhat like a public hedge fund in the way it makes its money. All of these companies are under a cloud 1) will they be able to make money going forward and 2) will | 2007-09-10 | ||
| BUY | Hewlett-Packard Co | HPQ-N | 49.000 | Very well positioned. Success came when they refocused on their consumer computer business and started taking market share away from Dell (DELL-Q). | 2007-09-10 | ||
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| BUY | Coca-Cola Company | KO-N | 54.570 | Have had some difficulties but is now turning around and this is his reason for owning it. Global exposure. | 2007-09-10 | ||
| TOP PICK | Oracle | ORCL-Q | 20.170 | Beneficiary of what is happening in the computer world. Remains #1 in a lot of database operations. With growth of the Internet and willingness of consumers to purchase over the Internet, they are coming out with more sophisticated programs to keep track | 2007-09-10 | ||
| TOP PICK | PepsiCo | PEP-N | 68.460 | Has good product diversification. The ability to extend those lines has been their strength for many years. Global exposure. | 2007-09-10 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Pfizer Inc | PFE-N | 23.960 | Many pharmaceuticals are faced with an uncertain political environment. This is more important than patent expirations. They are faced with a national health system in the US if there is a change in the government in 2008. | 2007-09-10 | ||
| BUY | Proctor & Gamble | PG-N | 65.900 | Good international exposure. Has been very aggressive and very good in terms of treating its product offerings like a portfolio, i.e. spinning off products not growing fast enough and buying new ones. | 2007-09-10 | ||
| BUY | Texas Instruments | TXN-Q | 35.220 | Very well positioned. Would stay with this company because of its access to Digital Light Processing (DLP) and the mobile phone business. Could easily go into the high $30's if the market settles down. | 2007-09-10 | ||
| DON'T BUY | Countrywide Financial | CFC-N | 17.210 | Stock had a ride with the boom in the US housing sector and has started coming down with it. Feels it will survive. This is a company that is very heavy in the service business. Its mortgage commitments will be running off rather rapidly and they should | 2007-09-10 |
