STOCKCHASE

Great growth story in the 90s but peaked out around 2000. Trading at a fair multiple now. Dividend was raised and is almost 3%. Would be a seller if the trade at at around $56 and a buyer at around $48. Getting a lot of competition.

2011-09-07

PAST TOP PICK

53.480

Sandy McIntyre

(Top Pick Aug 15/10, Up 6.43%)

2011-06-08

BUY

52.190

Mohsin Bashir

Excellent clout and market share. Challenge will be rising input costs. There is an opportunity of increased sales volumes. Will be a margin squeeze but are hoping for greater sales. Reformatting stores to a more super market style. Good long-term value.

2011-03-28

TOP PICK

52.070

Michael Simpson, CFA

World’s largest retailer. Just gave a 21% dividend increase. Analysts didn’t like the last quarter when their same store sales growth was negative so the stock was punished. Trading at 11.5X 2011 earnings. Likes that they buy back shares and reduce debt. New focus on merchandising. 2.8% yield.

2011-03-04

Comment

52.070

Barry Schwartz

Has lost its mojo. So much competition with Target and Cosco. They are now the biggest grocery store in North America. Don’t expect double-digit gains. Hard to recommend, except that we could end with higher food inflation.

2011-03-01

DON'T BUY

54.090

Derek Webb, CFA

In 10 years it has gone nowhere. We know how much it has expanded and how the earnings have grown in this time. It has had tremendous earnings compression. Wouldn’t own it because he doesn’t know when they will get increased multiple.

2010-11-30

TOP PICK

51.550

Sandy McIntyre

9% growth on a global company. If you agree with concept that we are looking at a declining standard of living in the western world, they will benefit, not high-end retailers. 13x PE, 2.4% dividend, ROE of over 22%. Risk would be a severe double dip and increased unemployment.

2010-08-25

DON'T BUY

50.350

Was a growthy story back at the turn-of-the-century and even into the 1990s but has become less so. It is a defensive issue in that people have piled in through the 08-09 period but once things started to get better, they left this and went in for more growth. Fully valued.

2010-07-14

BUY

48.000

Greg A. Taylor, CFA, BBA

A play on a lower demographic area and should benefit in slower times.

2010-07-05

BUY

51.640

Brett Hryb

Benefited when consumer was concerned about the future. As consumers started to get more confidence, they began moving to branded names. Good core position though.

2010-06-15

BUY

55.420

Steven Conville

Doesn't feel you can get hurt with this company. Sound management and loves the way they run their company. Annual return for the long-term will be 6%-8%. Long-term hold.

2010-03-15

WEAK BUY

52.850

Philip Doyle

Globally, a leader in retailing. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B-N) has been buying recently, which makes it interesting. Hard to see how competition could gain meaningful share against them. Not a growth stock but should grow its BV over time.

2009-12-18

Comment

52.760

Stan Wong

(Market Call Minute.) Doesn't see the growth in this. If you look 10 years it is pretty much where it is. Could be a trading stock.

2009-12-17

DON'T BUY

54.410

When times were bad everyone wanted to be here. If people see economic recovery is not going to be so robust, they may return to Walmart. No one buys for the dividend, but it’s nice it’s there. He doesn’t think retail is a great place to be.

2009-12-08

PAST TOP PICK

50.380

(A Top Pick Sept 8/08. Down 17.13%.) Stopped out in Sept/Oct last year. Wouldn't buy.

2009-09-14

WEAK BUY

51.110

Has gained about 10% in share value compared to average of about 50%. It is because they are defensive and since market found a bottom. Money is flowing out of it. Is trading at a reasonable rate and company could grow at 7%.

2009-09-09

BUY

50.970

Great Company. Trading at lowest PE since 2000. This is not a high beta stock and is not where people want to be right now. They under performed in the recent rally. Increased gross margins by 110 basis points last quarter. Strong company with good global growth. Cheap multiple; increasing dividend; and $15 Billion buy back. Big issue is will they keep the customers that came from higher end retailers.

2009-09-01

DON'T BUY

51.800

Christine Poole

As the Cdn$ appreciates it takes away the return from a US investment and it is not compelling enough for her to buy. This company has benefited with this recession. Consumers are still very price conscious.

2009-08-26

WEAK BUY

51.880

Charles Bobrinskoy

A stock that everybody goes to when they’re panicked. Defensive stock as people believe there is more shopping here during a recession. In an upswing in the economy, this company tends to lag. Good value, but not a great value.

2009-08-13

Comment

49.980

Stan Wong

Next 3 years? Stock price is roughly the same as it was 10 years ago. Excellent franchise. Trading around 14X forward earnings. Growth is very steady but not explosive or exciting. If you are looking for something in the discount retail space, consider Dollar Tree (DLTR-Q) and strictly in the retail space look in those that are more cyclicals such as Best Buy (BBY-N) or Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY-Q).

2009-07-30

Comment

48.860

Christine Poole

Has benefited from the recession. With improving economy you should see some money move away.

2009-07-21

BUY

47.790

US consumers are now reducing debt and are very thrifty. This company has shown itself to be the low cost store. Great balance sheet. Will continue to increase dividends and buy back shares.

2009-07-02

BUY

48.250

Charles Bobrinskoy

Trading at just about the lowest multiple it ever has at around 12. Likes it here. High quality name.

2009-06-16

WAIT

49.840

Charles Lannon

Highly topical stock because of subdued consumer spending. What is really going to drive it are the organic revenue numbers so wait to see what they report in a few weeks.

2009-06-12

BUY

51.070

Michael Yoshikami

A little bit of an uncertain picture right now because they've stopped giving out their same store sales numbers. Well positioned because people will be shopping in places that are more economical. Probably best of breed from a retail standpoint. Have authorized a $15 billion share buyback.

2009-06-05

BUY

50.870

Gavin Graham

Market leader and has been gaining market share. Even though retail sales have been dreadful people are trading down.

2009-06-04

DON'T BUY

49.510

Defensive retailer and has done well through this piece. Fairly valued. Better opportunities available.

2009-05-06

TOP PICK

49.590

Michael Yoshikami

In a tough economy you are going to see efficient operators do well. They do well not just because they can buy on scale but many years ago they decided to pull people in for groceries and sell other products when they are there.

2009-03-20

PAST TOP PICK

50.440

David Abella

(A Top Pick Oct 22/08. Down 1.6%.)

2009-03-18

DON'T BUY

47.460

Great company and has done very well but everybody that is looking to buy has crowded into this one. Has grown earnings at high single digits year after year but is trading at about 14X earnings making it a little expensive.

2009-03-11

BUY

49.750

Brendan Caldwell

(Market Call Minute.) Really likes companies that people use every day. Clearly this one is picking up market share from other stores.

2009-03-05

BUY

50.450

(Market Call Minute.) Got stopped out recently when it broke through $57-$58. A defensive name.

2009-02-19

BUY

55.810

Alan Kral , CFA, CIC

Best defensive stock you can find. One of the 2 stocks up in Dow Jones over the last two years. Positioned to gain market share. Would buy for a defensive portfolio. They have control of the situation. Is considering buying.

2008-12-09

BUY

49.670

Brendan Caldwell

(Market Call Minute.) Sells stuff that people use every day and is pretty cheap.

2008-10-27

TOP PICK

52.270

David Abella

Very defensive. As consumers look for better pricing the company will have market share gain.

2008-10-22

BUY

50.950

Matthew McCall

During troubled times, you pull in spending. People are moving down to lower end discount stores because they think they don’t have as much money.

2008-10-10

TOP PICK

62.000

Trading at 40X earnings. Stronger US$ helps them to buy and source their products offshore more inexpensively. They are taking market share because the US consumer is moving down market.

2008-09-08

DON'T BUY

57.880

Don Lato

Stock has done remarkably well considering the overall US market. Trading at about 15X earnings, which is still fairly modest but it is only growing at 10% a year.

2008-08-13

BUY

59.060

Andrew Guy, CFA

As you have slowing economy consumers are going to increasingly go to this store. They constantly squeeze their suppliers, which helps them to keep prices down. Not expensive.

2008-07-22

DON'T BUY

57.210

Laura Wallace

Will do well on a relative basis because there will be a march down and they are the best at discount retailing on a broad basis. Margin pressure and will be vulnerable to a stronger dollar as a lot of savings that they pass on to consumers is from importing from overseas.

2008-07-10

Comment

59.180

Had its big run due to people trading down on how they shop as well as tax rebates that have gone out to Americans. This has happened before and historically when the economy has been weak it has been a temporary situation.

2008-06-13

DON'T BUY

55.750

Laura Wallace

Seems to be doing well, but the stock has not been a great performer. If she had to have a retailer, this would be the one because the consumer is going to downshift.

2008-05-23

BUY

56.050

Started going higher, then pulled back. If you want exposure to retail, this is the only one to own. Executing well. Good risk/reward trade.

2008-05-22

DON'T BUY

57.350

Not a big fan of any retailers right now, particularly in the US. The US is clearly into a slowdown in the US consumer is leading the downturn. However, if you have to beat and a retailer's stock, they are winning on the trading down activity in the market. The best of a bad lot.

2008-04-28

DON'T BUY

45.720

Kenneth P. Norquay, CMT

Was in a downtrend from early 04 until mid 05. From that time on, it was in a base year. It is either building up steam to go back up or is about to go back down.

2008-01-04

PAST TOP PICK

49.430

(Top Pick Nov 27/06. Up 6.2%.) Continues to do all the right things. $1 billion in sales every month.

2007-12-10

DON'T BUY

43.620

Don Lato

Hasn’t performed well of late. Trades at a pretty reasonable multiple. With all the advantages they’ve had with the weak US$, they’ve not been able to translate that into the earnings growth he would like.

2007-11-08

DON'T BUY

45.590

Bill Carrigan

No longer a growth company. It'll probably end up being in just a flat trading range. At a recent breakdown with a gap in August. Wouldn't be too excited about this one.

2007-10-10

Comment

43.610

Has the potential to capture the benefit of the Christmas sales. Their clients are somewhere between the $25,000 and $40,000 and high gas prices hurts this segment. Have a great balance sheet. Well run.

2007-09-27

HOLD

44.320

Brian Acker, CA

33% positive differential. Will be in top 10 spot by the end of month. Secular bet. You’ll do quite well in several years.

2007-09-20

PAST TOP PICK

43.820

(A Top Pick Nov 27/06. Down 6.3%.) The company is growing into its stock price. Continuing to grow their sales. Still a Buy.

2007-08-27

BUY

48.350

Pat Naccarato

Has been hurt by the financial problems of the low-end consumer. Also had some executional problems with some of their international franchises. Valuation is very compelling now.

2007-07-17

Comment

48.830

Don Reed

Continuing to go through a lot of expansion. Shutting down a lot of retail space in North America. Very well run organization. Doesn't expect you will see the same growth as there has been in the past.

2007-07-12

Comment

49.760

Charles Lannon

A great time to buy non-Canadian assets, however.Walmart can only grow by same stores growth or opening new stores. Management is going to slow down superstore growth. Not a ton of downside, but wouldn't be his favorite bid for a US retail store.Is ambivalent about it.

2007-06-07

DON'T BUY

47.120

Has really not gone anywhere. Have gotten so big it is hard for them to keep growing at the same rate.

2007-05-30

Comment

47.750

Richard Croft

If he liked the outlook for this company and retail in general, options are not terribly expensive. He would tend to buy a $50 Strike or higher.

2007-05-10

HOLD

48.700

Pat Naccarato

Was extremely overvalued, but the earnings have caught up to the stock price and is now at a discount.

2007-04-26

BUY

47.550

Steve MacMillan

Just announced improvements in staffing levels of their stores. Expect a big move to improve margins as well as sales. Good entry point.

2007-01-03

DON'T BUY

46.000

Brad Willock

Could be a Buy at $44. Doesn’t like their prospects. Its gigantic, located everywhere and slow. Dropping prices only attracts existing customers, and doesn’t help their balance sheet. Their typical customer is under financial pressures.

2006-12-11

PAST TOP PICK

46.320

(A Top Pick Jan 7/06. Up 3.4%.) A great business. Largest company in its industry in the world. Great prospects with their international diversification.

2006-11-13

TOP PICK

49.460

Everything about Wal-Mart has doubled in the last 5 years and the stock price has gone down. Very compelling value. A nice defensive place to be.

2006-10-03

BUY

43.880

Their sales, profits and dividends all doubled from 2000, but the price has gone from $60-$43. Investors were overly optimistic. At 14 X earnings, it looks like very compelling value. Very efficient retailer.

2006-08-25

HOLD

44.070

Biggest problem is that it got so big it can no longer keep up the growth rate. Many stores have become stale looking. International expansion hasn't gone as well as hoped. However, as the economy slows they will be picking up customers that are trading down from higher end retailers.

2006-08-22

PAST TOP PICK

48.450

(A Top Pick Jan 17/06. Up 6.4%.) It did what he hoped, i.e. slow and steady with a predictable return.

2006-05-31

WEAK BUY

48.300

Hasn't done a whole lot lately. They got so big, it was hard for them to get good same store sales growth. Harder to get new stores in the US and international has been more difficult than domestic. In the near term, the worst is over. Won't be exciting.

2006-05-30

WEAK BUY

45.000

A great company. Expanding internationally. Costs are going up which creating a bit of a margin squeeze which they are not able to pass on to their clients. Also not a lot of room to squeeze their suppliers. Average client is low income, who will have less money to spend. At these levels it could be worth looking at.

2006-01-20

WEAK BUY

45.800

David Baskin

An interesting case history because it grew so big, so fast to become the biggest employer and retailer in the world and is now under pressure from a number of fronts, labour practices, real estate acquisition practices gives rise to questions if it can continue to grow as it has. Not an unreasonable price, but you're never going to see the performance of the past.

2006-01-19

TOP PICK

44.950

(A Top Pick Sept 22/05. Up 5%.) Likes the predictability of its earnings and earnings growth. The largest food retailer in the US. Global leadership in discount retailing.

2006-01-17

BUY

45.710

Over the last several years, analysts have overestimated their ability to grow. Earnings have not caught up with the expectations. Their formula, consolidating and squeezing prices of suppliers, works and others try to follow it. Trying to move its business overseas and that's a riskier proposition. Over time it will do well.

2006-01-09

DON'T BUY

46.320

For the last 4 years, the largest of the large cap stocks have continued to underperform. It reached a point in 2000 where the valuation, the number of X's earnings investors were paying for these companies, completely outweighed the growth rates. Over the last 4 years, there has been a continual decline on the prices that people are willing to pay.

2006-01-04

HOLD

48.680

Some of the US multinationals are becoming incredibly cheap. This one would fit in that category, not as well as others though.

2005-12-12

DON'T BUY

49.300

Brad Willock

Market seems to like what they have done and that their results were not as bad as had beeen feared. Their comments about Christmas seeems to be driving the stock higher. Still not that expensive and its dividend yield is OK. Because of their massive size, growth is going to be difficult for them.

2005-11-14

BUY

45.390

John Sinkins, CFA

Has not performed exactly as he would have liked. Has been hurt by the general inflationary trends going through the US economy and the perception of pricing power. There is a cost squeeze because of delivery costs to the stores.

2005-10-25

TOP PICK

43.190

(A Top Pick July 6/05. Down 11%.) At a 6 year low in terms of stock price and an 8 year low in terms of price earnings and price sales at 14 X next year's earnings. The largest food retailer in the US. Expects mid teen compound annual rate of return as well as share repurchases.

2005-09-22

DON'T BUY

45.690

Ben Stadelmann

Using a long term chart, you would see one of the most successful corporations in the world. One way they've been successful is they've been able to squeeze suppliers relentlessly. Most of their goods come from China and with China edging towards revaluation of their currency and oil prices going up, they'll have a harder time doing this.

2005-09-06

DON'T BUY

44.960

Brad Willock

Has been a really bad stock for quite a while. High gasoline prices mean less money for the shoppers to buy things.

2005-08-31

DON'T BUY

49.680

David Driscoll

Caller heard that he should buy the Wal-Mart in Mexico because it's cheaper. A: Wal-Mart the parent will grow at GDP. Very over valued at present. Wal-Mart Mexico would be a better way to go. (Ed: Can't find a listing.) Prefers Chico's (CHS-N) which is starting to roll out more and more stores every year.

2005-08-03

TOP PICK

49.380

Has lost market share to Target(TGT-N). Trading around 18 X this year's earnings compared to Target's 21.5. Growth earnings and growth prospects are similar for both companies. Wal-Mart has global expansion possibilities. Can maintain 13% earnings growth while paying a 1% dividend yield.

2005-07-06

TOP PICK

49.850

Bob Stodgell

1.2% dividend. Likes their consistant dividend record and their consistant increase in that dividend. The multiples have shrunk. Have realized that they have to target the higher end shopper. Also will try to address line-ups. Going to try to formalize banking relationships for their clients.

2005-06-15

BUY

48.280

Richard Croft

Caller, who plays options, believes that $45 is the support line and Wal-Mart will have a bounce. A: Would look at a $45 CALL (LEAP) perhaps a year out. Would use the resistance level as a possible exit. If it occurred in a 2/3 month period, you won't lose much. If you BUY a $45 LEAP and the stock takes a bounce off $45 up to its resistance point and you get a double on the leap, not a bad trade.

2005-06-13

BUY on WEAKNESS

46.810

Has a couple of issues. 1) Has been marked as a company that doesn't treat employees properly and 2) gobbling up everything in the world. Not a cheap stock. As a retailer, they are doing all the right things, controlling suppliers and keeping prices low. Buying in the $40's is a good level.

2005-04-22

BUY

48.570

Mark Jackson, CFA

Starting to look attractive at these level. In retail sales out of the US, the discounters were the ones still showing growth. Valuation is starting to become fairly attractive. Trading around 17/18 X earnings. On his radar to look at.

2005-04-13

WEAK BUY

48.900

Ross Healy

Downside is about $40/42. Been trading in a long sideways pattern with wide swinging upside to $65 and downside to $42 and now heading back down to the lows again. The channel has been a pretty reliable place to buy. A few years ago it got up to about 8/9 X book value and it's been moving down towards about 4 X book and sideways, so its balance sheet is catching up with the price which means the valuation is getting lower.

2005-04-07

DON'T BUY

49.500

Would be more inclined to wait for one of the higher growers. It's migrating from a higher growth rate to a slower growth rate and as it does, the earnings multiple is coming down.

2005-04-06

BUY

51.610

David Baskin

Good opportunities, good growth stats but will not see same growth as in 90's.

2005-02-28

VAGUE

53.150

John Sinkins, CFA

Has guided down on sales. A little too early to say if this is going to have a profound affect on Dec. sales.

2004-11-29

TOP PICK

55.680

Jackee Pratt

Well managed. Growing their earnings. Last quarter was $0.54 versus $0.46. Typically traded at 30 to 40 X earnings, but is now under 20 X earnings.

2004-11-22

TOP PICK

53.160

Harvey Eisen

A quality company.

2004-07-23

DON'T BUY

52.080

Brian Acker, CA

Has a model price of $44.65.

2004-07-06

WATCH

52.460

David Chapman

An interesting chart. The long-term chart shows a large symmetrical triangle. This could indicate that top, or consolidation pattern. If it breaks to the downside, it could reach into the $20's, otherwise breaking to the upside means $90/100 area.

2004-06-28

WEAK BUY

59.690

Not going to get hurt owning the stock. Not an exciting holding.

2004-03-31

DON'T BUY

58.480

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Growth is too big.

2004-03-12

BUY on WEAKNESS

58.380

Matt Barasch

Getting a little expensive. Would prefer to buy under $50.

2004-02-19

DON'T BUY

53.140

Gavin Graham

This company does things remarkably well. The American consumer is not doing to well. Dividend is not that great.

2004-01-14

DON'T BUY

51.870

Brian Acker, CA

Very expensive. Have a model price of about $44.

2003-12-17

BUY on WEAKNESS

50.740

Has been a range trader between $40/60. Seems to be dropping back to the lower end of the range. Should still be a little more weakness. The next dip below $50 is probably a good buying opportunity.

2003-12-15

BUY

55.700

Ron Meisels

Has a good chart with a huge inverse head and shoulders and is on the verge of breaking out.

2003-11-26

BUY

57.060