| PAST TOP PICK | 3.880 | Ravi Sood | (A Top Pick Nov 17/06. Down 1%.) Acquired by Penn West Energy (PWT.UN-T) | 2008-04-21 | |
| Comment | 3.900 | Ben Cheng | Has declined significantly in the last 2 months. Part of it is due to the decline in gas prices. Also, their payout ratio is a little high. Market is looking for a distribution cut. Currently they are up for sale. | 2007-09-05 | |
| Comment | 5.120 | Michael Simpson, CFA | Trading below net asset value. Difficult asset base causing them to miss production in the past. Near 20% yield. Looking interesting. | 2007-07-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | 5.240 | Sandy McIntyre | Higher cost production. They have a capital allocation problem. Distributions plus Cap-X is greater than their cash flow so they need an external source of capital to fund some of their distribution. Too much debt. | 2007-07-03 | |
| Comment | 4.190 | Michael Simpson, CFA | Historically have missed on their production numbers and he would like to seat management meet their numbers before owning. F&D costs were quite high this year. Have a lot of tax pools. Trading below its net asset value. | 2007-03-20 | |
| Comment | 5.120 | Michael Simpson, CFA | Just released reserves, which met analysts’ expectations. Debt to cash flow is over 2 X’s. Payout ratio is around 80%. Have set production guidance in the past and had trouble meeting it. Have a lot of tax pool, which is becoming very valuable. Possible takeover candidate. Doesn't meet his criteria. | 2007-02-23 | |
| DON'T BUY | 4.970 | Robert Lauzon | 35% of their natural gas is hedged at $7.60. Had some disappointing production and drill results, and he sold his position. Thinks it is a takeover target within the next year, but doesn't think it will get too much of a premium. | 2007-01-22 | |
| HOLD | 4.680 | Robert Toole | An interesting situation. Quite a small trust and would be an early consolidation candidate. Distribution gives about a 20% yield, yet it has one of the lower payout ratios in the sector at about 110%. | 2007-01-18 | |
| DON'T BUY | 4.830 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | There are better producers. Smaller cap and there are safer places to invest in. Yield of about 20% is a red flag that they may have to drop their distributions. | 2007-01-16 | |
| WAIT | 5.500 | Sandy McIntyre | Missed production numbers a couple of times and has more leverage than he likes. Has a good asset base, so has the opportunity to fix itself going forward. Because it is gas weighted, not a good time to enter. | 2006-12-29 | |
| WEAK BUY | 5.830 | Ben Cheng | One of the smaller oil/gas trusts. Stumbled on production on a few quarters over the last few years. There is a risk this could continue. The properties within the trust are very good. Would hope for a change in management. | 2006-12-01 | |
| TOP PICK | 5.610 | Ravi Sood | Huge yield. Trading at a huge discount to its net asset value. Have $450 million of tax losses. When 2011 rolls around, this gives them a huge tax shield. | 2006-11-17 | |
| SHORT | 5.180 | John Stephenson | If you own sell. If you want a short position, this would be one. | 2006-11-16 | |
| DON'T BUY | 7.560 | Kevin Hall BComm, CFA | Has a couple of issues. Very highly levered relative to its peer group. High payout ratio. | 2006-10-27 | |
| SELL | 7.560 | Robert Toole | Trading at about an 18% yield. One of the smallest royalty trusts out there. Hasn't gotten enough critical mass and could be a consolidation candidate. Better places to be. | 2006-10-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | 9.000 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Possibly a takeover target. Last couple of quarters have been disappointing. Production has declined more than expected. Relatively high debt. He owns a small amount. | 2006-08-23 | |
| DON'T BUY | 8.300 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Debt levels and payout ratios are high. Some of the assets it is developing are not as high quality as some others. | 2006-06-16 | |
| HOLD | 8.090 | Michael Simpson, CFA | Getting cheap at this price. Estimated production is 8000/8200 BOE’s a day. If it stays down at this price, it could be a takeover target. | 2006-06-01 | |
| BUY | 8.490 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Experienced management. About 60% natural gas and 40% oil. 1st quarter results were in line with expectations. Payout is about 71%. Reserve life index about 7.5 years. Good candidate for a merger or a takeover. | 2006-05-16 | |
| BUY | 10.550 | Dean Orrico | A good hold at these prices. Good quality management team. Trades at a discount to its peers. | 2006-02-03 | |
Experts that have talked about Vault Energy Trust
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