| DON'T BUY | 32.630 | David Burrows | From a profitability standpoint, refiners are in a difficult spot. They are geared to produce as much gasoline as they can but gas inventories are not tight. However, diesel inventories are tight. Crude prices continue to move higher. | 2008-07-11 | |
| HOLD | 44.120 | John Stephenson | (Market Call Minute.) Too much gas inventory and high fuel prices means margins are weak. | 2008-06-16 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 44.680 | Brian Acker, CA | (A Top Pick July 27/07. Down 39%.) Refiners are caught with demand for gasoline going down and the price going up. They also have to buy crude. Reduced his weighting from 5% to 1.25%. Model price is $79, a 77% positive differential. | 2008-06-11 | |
| DON'T BUY | 44.600 | David Baskin | Stock price is probably down due to quality of assets and quality of management. When you are buying, you might as well buy the leading companies. Also prefers Canadian companies to get the dividend tax credit. | 2008-06-10 | |
| DON'T BUY | 49.810 | David Burrows | Higher crude prices made it harder to get a margin on gasoline. | 2008-05-22 | |
| SELL | 46.270 | Brian Acker, CA | Refineries are really having a tough time here. His model price is $79.26, a 66% positive differential. He still has it but it is no longer in his Top 10. There is going to come a time when these companies will make nothing but money. Consider changing to Canadian companies. (See his Top Picks.) | 2008-05-08 | |
| Comment | 48.850 | Norman Levine | Crack spread for a refinery is when they buy oil at X dollars and refine it (the crack) and sell it. The profit is the crack spread. Demand for gasoline has not been strong and North American economy has been weakening. This is a cyclical business and that will change. If you are a long-term investor you could take advantage of the weakness and Buy. Doesn't see relief in the near term but in the medium to long term there could be value. | 2008-04-30 | |
| BUY | 49.630 | Pat Naccarato B.Math, MBA,CFA | Refinery. Stock has been hit hard as oil has gone up. An attractive place to be. Have a lot of assets and there are no new refineries being built in the US. | 2008-04-07 | |
| WEAK BUY | 48.100 | John Stephenson | A good entry point. Crude prices are very high. There is an imbalance in supply and demand hurting the sector. Coming into the driving season. The second quarter should be significantly stronger than the first. | 2008-03-25 | |
| WATCH | 49.035 | David Burrows | Valero fits into the group of refiners and marketers. Seasonally we are close to get into the driving period. So you will probably get a bounce in the short term. Use the bounce to evaluate if you want to keep it.
Don't buy in now. | 2008-03-19 | |
| Comment | 53.520 | Gavin Graham | Crack spread is far more important to a refiner than the price of oil. The spread has been narrowing from exceptionally wide levels. All existing refineries are working to full capacity, and being fairly old having things occasionally go bang. | 2008-03-06 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 57.130 | Brian Acker, CA | (A Top Pick Feb 1/07. Up 1.5% including dividends.) His model price is $93.96, a 66% positive differential. Still a Buy. | 2008-02-07 | |
| BUY | 59.060 | Mike Lyons CA, CFA | The refining industry is a difficult one, but they don’t build any more of them. Fairly cheap on a Price/Sales and Price/Earnings level. Would prefer a high dividend yield. | 2008-01-31 | |
| PARTIAL BUY | 52.120 | Brian Acker, CA | His model price is $94.91. Trying to put in a bottom here, which would be about $54.80. Look for it to stabilize around this price. Would be looking at accumulating a little bit here. | 2008-01-17 | |
| BUY | 68.190 | John Stephenson | Likes refineries. Reasonably valued. Thinks it will go higher. There is a little seasonality with this where it ramps up in the summer and declines in the late summer and fall. You could buy today and hold on till mid-July when you could exit. | 2007-11-12 | |
| BUY | 68.890 | Brian Acker, CA | His model price is $115, a 63% positive differential. | 2007-11-01 | |
| BUY | 70.150 | Norman Levine | Largest independent pure play in North America. There are seasonal issues here and right now there is not a lot of demand for heating oil.Believes it is the best way to play the refining cycle. He would own but he does not. | 2007-10-23 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 74.250 | Brian Acker, CA | (A Top Pick Oct 17/06. Up 36.4%.) His model price is $115.75, a 60% positive differential. Pre-announced today and the stock was off 1%. Still a Buy. | 2007-10-10 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 68.260 | John Stephenson | (A Top Pick Jan 5/07. Up 40.8%.) Benefited from the refining margin expansion. Reduced his holdings. The beginning of the year, such as February, is a beautiful time to buy it. | 2007-09-26 | |
| HOLD | 67.900 | Joseph Schachter | Specializes in heavy sour crude to produce gasoline. Since light oil is disappearing, this is a good long-term hold. | 2007-09-11 | |
| TOP PICK | 68.050 | Brian Acker, CA | (A Top Pick Oct 17. Up 29.5%.) Still a cheap stock. His model price is $109.75, a 61% positive differential. | 2007-08-30 | |
| WAIT | 63.110 | John Stephenson | The largest pure play refining company. Rallied very hard as the refining margins widened. Has now pulled back. Very profitable. The greatest upside will be into the summer of next year when the real demand for refining comes into play. Wait until February-March and sell in July. | 2007-08-21 | |
| HOLD | 67.290 | John Stephenson | Very well run company. At this level, it is a Hold. Traded in wide and an erratic swings is because of the crack spread, the margin that ogres for refiners. Very diverse in its asset base. Great stock from a trading perspective. | 2007-08-08 | |
| TOP PICK | 67.470 | Brian Acker, CA | Refinery. His model price is $124, an 81% positive differential. | 2007-07-27 | |
| BUY | 75.490 | Jeff Parent | Consolidating right now and doesn't think there is a lot of significant downside right now. Exit at $72.95. | 2007-07-06 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 76.570 | Brian Acker, CA | (A Top Pick Oct 17/06. Up 45%.) Refining. A very mis-priced asset. | 2007-06-21 | |
| BUY | 73.040 | Brian Acker, CA | 62% positive differential
Cheapest stock on the SMP 100.
It's in their top ten. | 2007-06-07 | |
| BUY | 74.260 | John Stephenson | Is into refining or a refining component. | 2007-06-06 | |
| BUY | 72.900 | Peter Brieger | Just announced they just sold their to Ohio refinery to Husky. Likes the refining business.
Long term buy. | 2007-05-02 | |
| BUY | 71.150 | Norman Levine | World's biggest independent refiner and marketer of fuels. Refining and marketing margins are historically wide now. There is a shortage of refining capacity. | 2007-05-01 | |
| BUY | 68.660 | Brian Acker, CA | He has a model price of $106.97, which is a 59% positive differential. | 2007-04-12 | |
| DON'T BUY | 64.490 | John O'Connell, CFA | Has done exceptionally well recently. Crack spread has been very attractive recently. Refineries have a tendency to blow up and catch fire. Would be cautious on them. | 2007-03-30 | |
| BUY | 64.900 | John Stephenson | One of the very few pure refiner plays. Good name from a fundamental standpoint, but does not lend itself well to a trading strategy. This is a stock you buy before the summer driving season. | 2007-03-27 | |
| BUY | 62.700 | Brad Willock | Refinery capacity in the US is rather constrained. This is one of the biggest refineries. | 2007-03-22 | |
| BUY | 57.380 | Norman Levine | The largest independent oil refining and marketing company in North America. You want to own refining stocks when margins are going up which they are currently doing. | 2007-02-27 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 57.900 | John Stephenson | (A Top Pick Feb 3/06. Down 1.2%.) Had a strong run in the summer. One of that few pure play refiners. Still buying. Cheap. | 2007-02-21 | |
| TOP PICK | 56.030 | Brian Acker, CA | (A Top Pick Oct 17/06. Up 6.7%.) The model price is $95 giving it a positive differential of 75%. Got hit with the drop in oil prices, which makes no sense as they are a refinery. | 2007-02-01 | |
| BUY | 50.660 | Brian Acker, CA | He has a model price of $93.52, that's an 85% positive differential. | 2007-01-17 | |
| TOP PICK | 49.360 | John Stephenson | (A Top Pick Jan 25/06. Down 16.2%.) A pure play refinery. Has a very complicated suite of refineries that is able to process different blends and should get a premium. Dirt cheap. | 2007-01-05 | |
| Comment | 48.890 | Alex Ruus | Great company and is an interesting sector. Trades at less than 6 X earnings. Hasn't been a new refinery built in North America in 25 years. Would have to look at its fundamentals, but likes the company and what they're doing and are well positioned. | 2007-01-04 | |
| BUY | 55.740 | Brad Willock | Refinery with most assets in the southern US. Has dropped since August. The fight centres on how expensive gasoline will be. Refining is in short supply. Gasoline demand goes up about 1.5% per year. | 2006-12-11 | |
| HOLD | 52.140 | Gavin Graham | Volatile. As a refiner, it is highly leveraged to the price of oil and the margins it makes on each barrel. Has come off very sharply. For less volatility, look at Chevron (CVX-N), Exxon (XOM-N), ConocoPhilips (COP-N) or Petro Canada (PCA-T). | 2006-10-30 | |
| TOP PICK | 52.610 | Brian Acker, CA | His model price is $95.50 which is a positive 80% differential. Huge earnings coming on the balance sheet make it cheaper literally every day. Very volatile. Could go to $62.50 without any sweat. | 2006-10-17 | |
| VAGUE | 51.870 | Norman Levine | The biggest refinery in the US. Stock has gone down. Believes we are near the turn down of oil. Improving outlook. | 2006-09-27 | |
| BUY | 50.580 | David Driscoll | This is a cyclical company. Very small dividend but plenty of free cash flow so that they can expand or build a refinery if they have to. | 2006-09-14 | |
| WAIT | 51.750 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Largest refiner in North America. Gasoline prices have dropped and this comes out of the refiner's pockets. Margins are declining, especially as we are off the summer driving season. Buy on weakness over the next couple of months. Good company. | 2006-09-08 | |
| BUY | 62.700 | John Stephenson | A pure play refinery. Last quarter was its best quarter ever. Refining has been the place to be. | 2006-08-21 | |
| BUY | 61.030 | David Driscoll | A very good company generating almost 2 X free cash flows to its capital expenditures. Unless they have big plans ahead to build new refineries, they should continue to generate a lot of cash. | 2006-08-17 | |
| BUY | 62.150 | Gavin Graham | No new refineries have been built in North America in the last 30 years so this stock has done very well. Refineries will continue to benefit from scarcity. | 2006-04-11 | |
| HOLD | 62.500 | John Stephenson | Has a great suite of refineries. You are coming into the summer driving season and the hurricane season. Cheap on a cash flow metric. One of the few pure plays you can get into. Very valued now. | 2006-04-05 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 57.460 | John Stephenson | (A Top Pick Jan 25/06. Down 2.5%.) Still likes and would recommend it. Refining is incredibly tight right now. | 2006-03-22 | |
| TOP PICK | 49.750 | Brian Acker, CA | It's an energy company and it's priced too low. "There's value that's not being realized"
| 2006-02-14 | |
| SELL | 50.590 | Norman Levine | Last year was a perfect positive storm for them when refinery margins went through the roof. That is now behind us with a lot of hurricane damaged refineries coming back on stream. They have now been producing gasoline at a net loss. You want to own this when refinery margins are going up. | 2006-02-13 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 56.610 | Brian Acker, CA | (A Top Pick Nov 23/05. Up 17%.) Still sees a 60% positive differential on this stock. | 2006-02-07 | |
| TOP PICK | 58.630 | John Stephenson | Likes refiners. U.S. looking at changing gas regulations which will increase the through put. Very bullish. Valuation cheap. Wide slat of refiners geographically diverse. Able to handle heavier grades of crude. | 2006-02-03 | |
| TOP PICK | 58.370 | John Stephenson | And independent refiner in the US. There is a very strong case for refineries in general. A very tight supply of gasoline. Trading at about 7.2 X persons the other independent refiners which would be at 12/12.4. US is introducing new requirements for low sulphur in diesel and gasoline creating even tighter supplies. | 2006-01-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | 51.870 | Norman Levine | At refining and marketing stock. They don't drill for oil, but buy oil and refine it. A play on the refining and marketing margins. Refining margins peaked earlier this year and the stock hasn't done much lately. Too late. | 2005-12-28 | |
| SELL | 104.490 | Norman Levine | They are the largest pure oil market and refining in North America. You have probably now seen the best times for refining. Probably time to take your profits. | 2005-12-05 | |
| TOP PICK | 100.580 | Brian Acker, CA | Dirt cheap here. Even if it trades at today's valuation a year from now, it will trade at an implied rate of $131. His model price is $163, a 60% differential. It is very volatile. | 2005-11-23 | |
| Comment | 100.280 | Brad Willock | Refineries are not being built so they are valuable assets to companies. Thinks the US will create some insentives for compaies to expand. They take years to build, so it will be a very slow process. | 2005-11-14 | |
| Comment | 108.020 | Paul Harris, CFA | An oil refiner which is why it has performed so well. There has been no new refining capacity added to the industry in the last 20 years. | 2005-11-02 | |
| BUY | 109.500 | John Stephenson | A good refiner. Should do well. | 2005-09-01 | |
| HOLD | 70.400 | John Stephenson | Have to be cautious on some if the US names because of currency risk, but ultimately what you want to do on any portfolio is diversify, so be somewhat light on US holdings. This company is one of the better refiners out there. With what we've seen with tight net gasoline supplies and refiners running flat out in the US, This will probably do well. The easy money's been made but you should do OK. | 2005-03-30 | |
| DON'T BUY | 66.700 | Andrew McCreath | Shortening the stock at this point. Came out with an earnings warning recently. Fundamentals are pretty good and price is pretty cheap but will continue to have tough sledding. | 2004-09-08 | |
| TOP PICK | 73.790 | Bob Doll | Benefiting from the continuing wide margins of the supply/demand story. There's more to go. | 2004-07-23 | |
| TOP PICK | 64.760 | Hugh McCauley | Refineries in the US are at about 97% capacity. One of the very few refineries that can handle sulfur. Will probably have a spike of $10 in earnings and $14/15 in cash flow. If oil drops, the stock will sell off a bit which would be the time to buy. | 2004-05-13 | |
| BUY | 59.630 | Norman Levine | A great stock for people who want a hedge against rising gasoline prices. The largest independent refinery and marketer in North America. A shortage of refineries is being exasperated in the US by rules or | 2004-04-21 | |
| TOP PICK | 58.150 | Nicholas Sargen | | 2004-03-19 | |
| TOP PICK | 52.250 | Norman Levine | The largest independent refining and marketing stock in North America. It owns oil refineries and gas stations. Likes the margins in refineries. Sees a prolonged period of profitability. | 2004-01-21 | |
Experts that have talked about Valero Energy Corp
