| Comment | 13.090 | Kevin Hall BComm, CFA | Predominantly natural gas. Low payout ratio, so he would expect a distribution increase. Benefits from a 20% ownership of Paramount Resources (POU-T). If you own, consider taking some profits after the distribution increase. There are better alternatives. | 2008-05-06 | |
| DON'T BUY | 7.200 | Dean Orrico | Gas weighted. Relatively short reserve life. Has a history of putting distributions. Instability historically. | 2008-01-29 | |
| Comment | 6.990 | Joseph Schachter | Company is paying out about 50% of their cash flow. If natural gas prices recover to $9 in Q4 of 08 and prices firming up from their, then royalty trusts should see significant upside. Distribution should be safe. | 2008-01-24 | |
| SELL | 6.600 | Kevin Hall BComm, CFA | Natural gas focused. Would put Focus (FET.UN-T), Peyto (PEY.UN-T) or even Progress (PGX.UN-T) ahead of it. Cut the distribution earlier this year. Good discount to NAV. Debt ratio is a bit higher than he would like. | 2007-12-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | 7.790 | Ben Cheng | Rising costs in the western Canadian basin and gas not trading at the traditional 6 to 1 heating ratio has put considerable pressure on them. Some questions on their balance sheet. Possible distribution cuts or another share issue. | 2007-09-05 | |
| Comment | 8.180 | John Stephenson | 3 gas-weighted companies that he feels will cut distributions are Trilogy (TET.UN-T), Advantage Energy (AVN.UN-T) and Prime West (PWI.UN-T). | 2007-08-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | 10.340 | Kevin Hall BComm, CFA | Natural gas focused. Would prefer others such as Progress Energy (PGX.UN-T) or Focus Energy (FET.UN-T). Has had a chequered past and has not been as steady a performer as others. | 2007-07-11 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 11.950 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Mainly gas production. Good assets. Have made aggressive acquisitions in the past, which has cost them. Will do well in the latter part of this year as gas prices strengthen. When you see drops in gas prices, Buy and Hold. | 2007-05-09 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 9.470 | Bruce Campbell | (A Top Pick Mar 6/06. Down 50%.) Sold his holdings but not nearly at a 50% loss. Well-managed and good assets. | 2007-03-06 | |
| BUY | 10.600 | John Stephenson | Cut distributions substantially in the last little while giving them a 60%-65% payout ratio. Very good entry point. Predominantly gas weighted. | 2007-02-21 | |
| SELL | 11.450 | Bruce Campbell | They really hacked the last cut down to a point where he doesn't think they'll need to cut again. Have about 40% hedged. The yield is not very high so you are not getting paid to wait. Good operators. 100% gas. He would go somewhere else until the fall. | 2007-02-05 | |
| BUY | 10.730 | Patrick Kim | Thinks this one will survive in the long term. A pure natural gas play. Have cut their distributions to a much more sustainable level. If you believe in gas, this is a good buy. | 2007-01-26 | |
| DON'T BUY | 11.100 | Robert Lauzon | Paying 17%, but expects they will have to cut distributions one more time this year because of their higher debt levels. | 2007-01-22 | |
| BUY | 10.620 | Michael Decter | The sector will trade on the underlying commodity price. It will also trade on their ability to translate their assets into production. Feels they have recently good chance of doing that. Be prepared for a lot of volatility. | 2007-01-18 | |
| DON'T BUY | 10.620 | Michael Simpson, CFA | Doesn't understand this company. They make acquisitions. They don't hedge. Heavy exposure in natural gas. Distribution cut is coming. | 2007-01-04 | |
| WAIT | 11.400 | Sandy McIntyre | Thinks the payout ratio is greater than 100%. Has a really good asset base. It will be a name he comes back to as a gas name for the 2008 gas market. | 2006-12-29 | |
| BUY | 11.250 | Bruce Campbell | Gas. Great value here. Have already lowered the distribution and are about a 70% payout ratio. Pays about a 17% yield. Great long-term value. A lot of production they are holding back, waiting for higher prices. | 2006-12-21 | |
| SELL | 12.060 | Ben Cheng | Have had some production and cash flow problems. Heavier debt load and shorter reserve life. Would move into higher quality like Bonavista (BNP.UN-T), Focus (FET.UN-T) or Vermilion (VET.UN-T) which will be survivors when they become taxable in 2011. | 2006-12-01 | |
| SELL | 11.640 | John O'Connell, CFA | Oil/gas income trusts in Canada are going to have a really tough time. The government’s proposed changes will make their lives very difficult. Distributions are not sustainable. The game is over for them. | 2006-11-27 | |
| BUY | 11.480 | Bruce Campbell | A gassy trust that has got hit. Gas prices have probably already bottomed and are coming back. Good entry point if you like the longer term outlook for gas. | 2006-11-15 | |
| SELL | 11.190 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | In the middle of an offering right now. | 2006-11-10 | |
| DON'T BUY | 15.850 | Robert Lauzon | Very gas weighted. Prefers trusts with lower payout ratios and lower debt. | 2006-10-20 | |
| BUY | 15.040 | Sandy McIntyre | Focused on the deeper drilling. Better rigs with higher utilisation rates. Tend to be more gas focused so could have some slippage in day rates in a warm winter. Have somewhat higher financial leverage then he likes. | 2006-10-13 | |
| HOLD | 14.780 | John Stephenson | In the middle of the pack. Decent. Focused on tight gas resources which gives them a certain amount of stability and sustainability. | 2006-10-12 | |
| HOLD | 15.180 | Bruce Campbell | Payout ratio is about 90%. This is basically 100% gas. There is a definite possibility of a distribution cut and it will be 10% to 15%. This would still give you 14% distribution. | 2006-10-05 | |
| VAGUE | 15.520 | David Baskin | There may be a possible cut in distribution. Recommends that you take a look at the last quarter results and come to your own conclusion. | 2006-09-28 | |
| BUY | 17.950 | Bruce Campbell | With the drop in price, it pays about 15% yield. 85% gas which is why it is off. Management is sharp. Have a lot of production behind pipe. As a trade, you can sell in February. | 2006-09-11 | |
| WAIT | 18.050 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Produces about 25,000 barrels a day equivalent, 80% gas. Made a number of acquisitions that the market is questioning. A nice core name if you are interested in gas. Likes this company. Wait. Over the next couple of months there will be some lower points in gas prices. | 2006-09-08 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 19.210 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Almost 80% of its production is gas weighted. Produces about 25,000 barrels equivalent a day. Buy when there is softness in the gas market. | 2006-08-23 | |
| BUY | 18.150 | Ravi Sood | Can't see any more distribution cuts. Great management team. A good way to play rebounding gas. Good level. | 2006-07-21 | |
| HOLD | 18.650 | Bill Carrigan | Uptrend was violated in late 2005. It had a classic spike. Basically, the bull is over. It is now trying to build a base. Don't let it go below its low. | 2006-07-17 | |
| Comment | 18.620 | Greg Guichon | 8% gas. 13% yield. All bets are off regarding distribution cuts. Doesn't think there is much risk to the underlying trust however. Good management. | 2006-07-14 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 18.700 | Bruce Campbell | (A Top Pick Mar 6/06. Down 2.5%.) 83% gas. Lowered the distribution as expected, but at this price your getting 15% which is attractive. In addition, when gas goes up, you get a capital gain. | 2006-07-05 | |
| BUY | 18.690 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | A very good gas position. The bulk of its assets are in the Cabob, central Alberta area which is a very prolific area. Good management. | 2006-06-16 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 18.960 | Bruce Campbell | (A Top Pick Mar 26/06. Down 4%.) A gas based trust. Cut their distribution like a lot of the gas trusts. At this price, distributions are 15%. A little bit worried about storage levels on gas. Would still hold. | 2006-06-08 | |
| BUY | 19.300 | Ravi Sood | Gas is very cheap on a relative base and historically and is likely to go higher. Good entry point for the long-term but in the near term, would prefer a non-income trust gas such as Compton (CMT-T). Gas trusts are propped up by yield. This one is a spectacularly well run company. | 2006-05-26 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 18.750 | Bruce Campbell | (A Top Pick Mar 6/05. Down 5.5%.) A very high gas weighted trust. Slightly cut its distributions last week but still pays $2.40. If they don't pay out a high distribution, they end up paying tax on it. A 15% yield and a good long-term outlook. | 2006-05-23 | |
| BUY | 19.220 | Ravi Sood | A very well managed trust with good underlying assets. They are right on the cusp in terms of payout ratio, capital efficiency and sustainability of their distribution. A great buy. | 2006-04-07 | |
| BUY | 19.600 | John Stephenson | Gas weighted. They have some of the best metrics in the business. Getting 57 BOE’s per well versus 27 industry average. Good production, good balance sheet. Relatively low payout ratio. | 2006-04-05 | |
| WAIT | 19.450 | Michael Simpson, CFA | Highly gas weighted. This trust is higher taxable so have to pay out a higher percentage of their operating cash flow. With gas where it currently is, doesn't like the prospects in the short-term, but longer term, as gas prices firm, this is one you could go into. | 2006-03-31 | |
| WEAK BUY | 19.100 | Robert Lauzon | A good trust to own if you are keen on natural gas. Payout ratio is a little higher than what he likes. | 2006-03-24 | |
| TOP PICK | 18.950 | Bruce Campbell | Trilogy Energy is a spinoff of Paramount Resources and still 19.9% owned. The trust is 80% gas. Paying out 80% of their cash flow. High pay out ratio is due to tax problems. They are 34% hedged. Yield is 15%and 25% return . Buy below $19.00. He is still buying. | 2006-03-06 | |
| HOLD | 19.300 | Sandy McIntyre | Triology Energy is late getting their 4th quarter results out or first annual report This expert does not seem concerned and says that only 60% of the energy trusts have reported at this point. Triology has a very interesting asset base. Caution-the distributions are highly taxable and they have to maintain a high payout ratio because of the taxability within the entity. Current rate of distribution is at risk in a weak gas market. They are prepared to overlook this because they like the asset base and are bullish on gas 9 months from now. | 2006-03-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | 19.220 | Robert Lauzon | A bit of a risk with this stock. It is heavily weighted in natural gas. The company just bought Red Sky( this expert has a position in Red Sky)Would not recommend this stock in present gas environment. If looking for a gas stock, prefers Fairborn and Enerplus. | 2006-03-01 | |
| WATCH | 21.220 | Ravi Sood | Spectacular management team. Gas weighted. Thinks there will be a chance to buy cheaper. Great assets. Look for it to fall another couple of dollars. | 2006-02-10 | |
| BUY | 22.550 | Bruce Campbell | Gas oriented. Last quarter was very slightly disappointing in production. Not a lot of growth, but given that you are getting a 10% plus yield, you are getting a 15/20% return. Not a bad spot. | 2006-01-24 | |
| BUY | 22.110 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | It has some good assets which are concentrated in the Kaybob area of Alberta. Thinks they will do very well. The most recent softness in the price is because of concerns in meeting their numbers but he feels they have a good chance of reaching their production numbers. | 2006-01-18 | |
| WEAK BUY | 24.810 | Robert Lauzon | Only owns it in his funds that require it because they track indexes. A gas weighted trust and its performance has been phenomenal, due to the high price of natural gas. Prefers other gas names. | 2005-12-23 | |
| Comment | 22.570 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Paying about 13%. Had a great run. Has gotten fairly expensive over the last little while. Likes the assets in the company. Will continue to do reasonably well. If you own, take some profits. | 2005-10-20 | |
| BUY | 27.200 | Peter Brieger | Outlook for natural gas is very good. About 75/80% natural gas. Has a good reserve. | 2005-10-04 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 20.800 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | (A Top Pick Apr 29/05 Up 34%.) Excellent company. Is a spinoff from Paramount (POU-T) which owns 15%. High quality properties in the Kaybob area. Will produce fairly prolificly for a long period of time. Likes the quality of the properties. Expensive at the moment. | 2005-09-02 | |
| TOP PICK | 18.350 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | (A Top Pick Apr 29/05. Up 14%.) Incoporates 2 main areas, 70% of the assets in the Kaybob area and the rest in Martin Hills. Kaybob has very high quality assets. | 2005-07-08 | |
| BUY | 17.750 | Michael Sprung | Has a relatively short reserve life with an index of around 7 years. A well run trust. Yield right now is around 11%. You are being paid a bit of a premium to compensate for the short reserve life. | 2005-06-24 | |
| TOP PICK | 16.300 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | A spin off from Paramoun Energy Trust. A high quality group of assets. Well managed and management owns about 50%. Still has some room to move. | 2005-06-07 | |
| TOP PICK | 15.680 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | A spin out from Paramount Resources (POU-T). Has 2 main properties, one in the Kaybob area (about 80% of its production) and the other in the Martin Hills area. | 2005-04-29 | |
| BUY | 16.000 | John Stephenson | Typically, when trusts first come out, they rally and then settle back. Fundamentally doesn't see anything wrong with it. Has a lot of reserves, reasonable cost structure, low payout ratio. | 2005-04-19 | |
Experts that have talked about Trilogy Energy Trust
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