| HOLD | 35.250 | Don Lato | There is an offer on the table to negotiate from 2 of their major shareholders. The talk is around $39. On its own, the stock is not cheap at 15X earnings. | 2008-08-13 | |
| Comment | 34.950 | Jaime Carrasco | Going through a possible takeover, which he thinks will happen. Cash flow is going to be there. Solid revenue generators. | 2008-07-25 | |
| HOLD | 36.910 | Robert Floyd | If you own, he would hold for the time being until there is a better sense of the take-out potential. If you don’t see anything further coming, then he would consider selling. | 2008-07-23 | |
| HOLD | 37.110 | Norman Levine | Has been a bid for a takeover. If you own, you could take a bit of profit in case the deal falls apart but it looks like it is going to happen. | 2008-07-21 | |
| BUY | 31.060 | Norman Levine | The street has loved to hate it. The company is well managed. They have a good yield. Not going to cut the dividend, they’ll probably grow it. | 2008-03-27 | |
| HOLD | 30.900 | John Stephenson | This name is a hold here. Not overly optimistic about entry here. Power prices have been weak in Alberta, which is their dominant market. | 2008-03-25 | |
| Comment | 35.410 | Jeff Parent | Hitting an all-time record high. Trend has been very favourable and he thinks it should continue and should have a lot more potential. | 2008-02-20 | |
| TOP PICK | 33.540 | Kenneth P. Norquay, CMT | Stoploss is at the recent low. Wouldn't want to buy this today as much as if it broke out beyond $34. Buy at $35. | 2008-02-12 | |
| BUY | 30.850 | David Burrows | If you are going to own equities through a difficult economy and market, yield is something you should look at. There are a bunch of companies in the Canadian market that have hung on pretty well. Look at TransCanada (TRP-T), Transalta (TA-T), Fortis (FTS-T) or an Enbridge (ENB). | 2008-01-28 | |
| DON'T BUY | 31.250 | Norman Levine | It is an utility stock. It had trouble a few years ago and has not been forgiven by the street. It has been in the highest growth area especially Alberta. The demand for power is very strong. It has been a great stock but it is a little high to buy. He prefers a cheaper utility stock like Fortis or Amira. | 2007-10-23 | |
| SELL | 29.940 | John Stephenson | Best example of a pure play merchant energy utility in Canada. Isn't under a regulated regime. Vast majority of its revenues come from buying natural gas on the open market, converting it into power and selling the power into the grid. Ran up recently because of speculation of private equity buying it. Too expensive. | 2007-08-08 | |
| BUY | 30.560 | Brendan Caldwell | Technically it has broken out to new highs. While it may pull back a little bit, it is very much in an uptrend and looks like it wants to head higher. 3.25% yield. | 2007-07-24 | |
| Comment | 31.600 | Paul Gardner, CFA | Has moved up sharply because of possible takeover possibilities. If that happens, there will be a 10% upside, otherwise a 10% loss. Operationally, they do a good job. Have power generation in Canada, US and Mexico. Fully valued. | 2007-07-19 | |
| STRONG BUY | 28.410 | Kenneth P. Norquay, CMT | A lovely uptrend. Utility stocks are in an uptrend as well. It had a lovely uptrend in 2005, it consolidated in 2006 and now it's going to go again. | 2007-06-01 | |
| HOLD | 28.000 | Michael Smedley | Had a bit of an incident this week with Transalta Power LP (TPW.UN-T) putting itself up for sale. Doesn't think this matters too much. Nice dividend. | 2007-05-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | 24.380 | Norman Levine | Sold his holdings about a year ago. Has a very high yield, probably because it is the riskiest utility company in Canada. Has no growth right now. Have some operational problems in northwest US. Totally coal, so there are some environmental issues. | 2007-03-13 | |
| HOLD | 24.590 | John Stephenson | This is a merchant energy company that takes price risk. Not a regulated utility. Because of that, the price of gas has to be low and the price of power has to be high. (Spark Spread) They may have to roll their trust (TPW.UN-T) back into corporation and the question is, can they do it economically. | 2007-02-21 | |
| SELL | 24.640 | Peter Brieger | All the utilities, Canadian Utilities (CU-T), Emera (EMA-T) and Fortis (FTS-T) have a far too high P/E relative to their growth. | 2007-02-19 | |
| DON'T BUY | 26.490 | Norman Levine | Mostly a dividend story. Has been a laggard compared to most of the other utilities until very recently. No earnings driver and have some issues in the Pacific northwest. | 2006-12-20 | |
| BUY | 26.020 | Paul Harris, CFA | Enbridge (ENB-T) and Transalta (TA-T) are good holds. A lot of money flowed to them from income trusts after the tax rules were changed. | 2006-12-12 | |
| Comment | 25.600 | David Cockfield | Wrote off a coal operation in the US west, which will increase their earnings. Relatively high yield. | 2006-12-07 | |
| DON'T BUY | 22.940 | Brian Acker, CA | Has never liked TransCanada (TRP-T) Enbridge (ENB-T) or Transalta (TA-T). Finding more value elsewhere. His model price is $23.51, a positive 2.6% differential. He is finding better value elsewhere. | 2006-10-17 | |
| BUY | 22.910 | Gordon Higgins, CA, MBA, CFA | Very juicy yield at 4.3% which is paying you to wait. Have the prospect of re-pricing electricity they generate in Washington state which could add $0.40 to earnings. | 2006-10-12 | |
| DON'T BUY | 23.740 | David Baskin | He doesn't really like this stock. | 2006-09-28 | |
| DON'T BUY | 24.320 | Martin Hubbes, CFA | Always thought the stock was a little more expensive than where he would be comfortable entering. Have some interesting assets but have never gotten the returns that they should get. | 2006-09-01 | |
| HOLD | 24.540 | Paul Harris, CFA | A well-run company with a good dividend. Great balance sheet. | 2006-08-15 | |
| DON'T BUY | 24.050 | Ross Healey | Trading rate at his “fair market value”. Doesn't see that it has any place to go on the upside. | 2006-08-03 | |
| DON'T BUY | 23.490 | David Baskin | Benefited from the “spark spread”, cost differential between electricity and cost of production. Their use of natural gas in making electricity has been in their favour, as gas got very cheap. However, today, natural gas storage indicator showed a draw down. That will be negative for the “spark spread” this quarter. Prefers others for yield. | 2006-07-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | 22.770 | John Stephenson | The knock against them has been that it isn't really a conventional utility i.e. being regulated. They are just selling power into the grid and hoping they will get a favourable price for it. Gas prices will probably go up and electricity prices will not keep pace with it so their earnings will continue to suffer. | 2006-06-28 | |
| SELL | 23.690 | Peter Brieger | This is a funny beast. It's in the power business, have had continual problems with one misstep after another. | 2006-06-12 | |
| DON'T BUY | 23.300 | Bruce Campbell | Yields about 4%. Not a lot of growth. Outlook of about 5% total. | 2006-05-31 | |
| HOLD | 23.320 | Michael Sprung | This is a company that has reinvented itself over the last number of years. Current businesses are a bit more volatile than what they were so there could be an argument on whether the dividend was sustainable. A well situated company that is thriving in the economy. | 2006-03-23 | |
| DON'T BUY | 23.200 | John Stephenson | Ultimately, they should be doing a little bit better with the low gas prices. Historically, they have been buying gas, burning it and turning it into electricity. Have been paying out a fair proportion of their cash in the form of dividends which doesn't make sense in a company that should be looking at growth. | 2006-03-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | 24.070 | David Baskin | They were not earning their dividends. Everybody thought this company would have to cut its dividends, but they didn't. They have had some maintenance problems at their plants and the margin between buying gas and converting to electricity was negative. Not an attractive buy at this price as it is very expensive. There are better buys in this sector. | 2006-02-28 | |
| DON'T BUY | 24.070 | David Baskin | They were not earning their dividends. Everybody thought this company would have to cut its dividends, but they didn't. They have had some maintenance problems at their plants and the margin between buying gas and converting to electricity was negative. Not an attractive buy at this price as it is very expensive. There are better buys in this sector. | 2006-02-28 | |
| BUY | 24.240 | Paul Gardner, CFA | He believes they have underperformed. Costs are down and leverage is down. He would buy and feels it could grow nicely. He owns on the bond side. | 2006-02-23 | |
| WEAK BUY | 23.530 | David Baskin | This stock has benefited from the sparks spread, which is basically the wholesale price of electricity compared to the wholesale price of natural gas. They have managed to play that pretty well. At the moment they are making money. There are some real issues with maintenance of plants and ability to grow. | 2006-01-19 | |
| DON'T BUY | 23.600 | Peter Brieger | If you are going to buy it, you had better have a very firm view that the dividend is safe. | 2006-01-16 | |
| HOLD | 25.680 | John Zechner | They have to expand beyond their Alberta base so this is why they signed the multi-year deal with the California outfit. It's not going to pay off initially. Their trouble in the past has been their dividend relative to their income. Finds the valuation a little bit high right now. | 2005-12-12 | |
| BUY | 23.640 | Michael Smedley | In an improved situation and it's part of the pricing inflation. | 2005-11-10 | |
| SELL | 23.750 | John Stephenson | Doesn't like this company. Essentially trading off its dividend. The basic bottom line is it's selling power into the unregulated market. Would be very lucrative if gas prices were cheap. | 2005-10-05 | |
| DON'T BUY | 22.870 | James Cole, BA, CFA | Utilities, pipelines, etc. have done fabulously well and benefited from growth in the Price/Earnings ratio which has grown from a typical 12 to 18. Very little room for expansion in the P/E ratio. You'll have single digit growth and a reasonable dividend yield. Would consider paring back and moving into better areas. | 2005-09-22 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 22.260 | Norman Levine | (A Top Pick Jun 6/05. Up 13.5%.) Also had a nice dividend. Dividend is rock solid. Would still buy the stock at these prices. | 2005-08-15 | |
| DON'T BUY | 22.220 | Brian Acker, CA | His model price is $18.36. Has always seemed expensive. | 2005-08-04 | |
| SELL | 21.500 | John Stephenson | It's hard to see a high dividend payout strategy, which is what this company is following, with its pure play Genco strategy. Not any real catalyst for upside. | 2005-07-27 | |
| SELL | 20.360 | David Baskin | They don't make enough money to pay their dividend, but haven't cut it yet. A very expensive stock. Given the uncertainty about the dividend and that the yield has come down, he would be a seller. | 2005-06-23 | |
| HOLD | 19.900 | Michael Smedley | Has been doing great. Everybody expected its dividend to drop any day, but the reality is that it won't be dropped. Great cash flows. Shouldn't do you too much harm. 5% dividend. | 2005-06-08 | |
| TOP PICK | 19.390 | Norman Levine | The utility stock that all the analysts hate and yet it continues to go up. Has an attractive yield. Had some business problems last year and the year before, but those are in the past now and things are getting better for them. Sees next year's earnings and the year after starting to accelerate. | 2005-06-06 | |
| HOLD | 19.390 | Bill Carrigan | If you draw a trend line across the lows and another one across the top, this stock is near the top of its trading range. If you're in the stock, the trend is upwards, but if you are thinking of buying wait until it drops down towards the lower part of the trend lind. | 2005-06-06 | |
| DON'T BUY | 19.840 | Peter Brieger | Quite a diversity of opinion on this stock. The bulls say the dividend is safe at $1 and the bears say it's not. Would not buy because of the diverse views. | 2005-05-30 | |
| TOP PICK | 19.650 | Norman Levine | Analysts hate this stock but they are wrong. It is subject to whatever power rates and fluctuations are. Went through a tough period starting in 2001, but things are starting to get better in the power generation business. Problems in plants have been fixed and now they are spending money on maintenanace. The 5% dividend is rock solid. | 2005-05-25 | |
| BUY | 18.960 | Norman Levine | Has a very high yield at 5.25%. Likes it for the income. Any capital gain is a bonus. Has been penalized in the last few years because of some problems in some plants they had. Recently have been spending their money on improving their plants to increase profitability and once that's over, expect increased profits and dividends. | 2005-05-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | 19.050 | David Cockfield | A power generating company. Has a lot of coal fires plants in western Canada. Bought this when it had a pull back, but not adding to their position at this price, even taking some profit. A great dividend paying stock. Dividend is "reasonably" secure. A little expensive right now. Facing some higher coal costs now.
| 2005-05-12 | |
| DON'T BUY | 18.830 | David Burrows | Expects it will ultimately cut its dividend. | 2005-05-03 | |
| DON'T BUY | 18.740 | John Stephenson | Doesn't see any catalyst for this company. Really trading off the strength of its dividend which is likely to be cut. | 2005-04-19 | |
| DON'T BUY | 18.260 | Laura Wallace | Not keen on this stock. Company has not earned its dividend since 1999 and is not projected to earn it until the end of 2006. Feels the dividend is vulnerable given the length and time they haven't been able to earn the dividend. | 2005-03-28 | |
| DON'T BUY | 18.400 | George Loughery | Yields are pretty high relative to bank stocks in particular. A little bit of risk in interest rates increasing. Longer term, management isn't particularily the sharpest knife in the drawer. If you are patient enough assets might get acquired. | 2005-03-15 | |
| DON'T BUY | 19.370 | Bruce Campbell | This, Canadian Utilities and Transalta have lower growths. Would buy a Power Income Trust instead which would give 7/8% versus 4/5%. | 2005-02-16 | |
| BUY | 19.040 | Gordon Higgins, CA, MBA, CFA | For the last few years has barely been earning its dividends. This last year, they've had high maintenance expenses, but the cash flow more than covers the dividend. If buying for the dividend, it's very secure. Re-contracting power out of their Washington power plant which could add up tp $0.40 per earnings. | 2005-02-09 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 18.810 | Andrew McCreath | (A Top Pick Sept 8/04. Up 18%.) Liquidated the position in late '04. Was on a paired trade with being long on this one. | 2005-01-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | 18.200 | Ian Nakamoto | Views this as more of a bond than an equity. Earnings haven't covered their dividends for quite awhile. Can't see much capital appreciation. | 2005-01-05 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 18.050 | Peter Brieger | Have a couple million $'s of excess cash flow, so dividend can be maintained. Expects that by 2007, they will be back in a growth mode and dividend could be increased. Could be a pull back in the near term. | 2004-12-31 | |
| DON'T BUY | 17.750 | David Baskin | The question is, can they maintain the dividend when their earnings don't really cover it. A little too risky. | 2004-12-16 | |
| DON'T BUY | 17.900 | Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | Has turned around nicely. Had a bottoming pattern over the summer. The stock is probably constrained at its highs this year, so there is probably a little bit of upside. | 2004-12-15 | |
| SELL | 17.900 | John Stephenson | Hard to see where the catalyst for any upside is going to be. Utility business is a slow growing business. Also they are in the un-regulated side of the business and are buying very expensive gas to convert into electricity which they are selling and they are just not reaching the price. Have a fair amount of capital expenditure they need to do. | 2004-12-14 | |
| BUY | 18.040 | Gordon Higgins, CA, MBA, CFA | Earns about $1 and is paying out $1 which is considered very high and risky. They have a big plant in Washington State where they are getting better prices and those contracts roll in 2005. In 2006/2007 can see an incremental $0.40 in earnings. Good dividend. | 2004-12-02 | |
| BUY | 17.540 | Rob Callander | In turnaround mode. Continuing to sell assets and improve their balance sheet. Feels they will be able to maintain their dividend which has quite a high yield. | 2004-11-30 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 17.740 | Norman Levine | (A Past Top pick Sept 28/04. Up 7%.) Utility stocks seems to be the safest area to preserve capital and still make a decent profit. May be a counter balance to the strong resource stocks. Feels the dividend is safe. | 2004-11-29 | |
| HOLD | 17.980 | Michael Smedley | A good blue chip for the dividend people. | 2004-11-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | 17.950 | John Stephenson | A challenged company right now. Has a lot of capital expenditures slated. Buying gas at elevated prices so their margin has declined. Hard to see how they can support the dividend. | 2004-11-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | 17.550 | Laura Wallace | Concerned that there is not a lot of growth potential. Balance sheet is quite stretched. Dividend could be vulnerable. Would prefer Trans Canada and Enbridge. | 2004-11-18 | |
| WEAK BUY | 17.550 | Bill Carrigan | Chart looks like it has had a bit of a bottom. Probably supported by yield. Feels that interest rates will stay low for several months to come, so this is OK. | 2004-11-18 | |
| BUY | 17.910 | Peter Brieger | Has been very negative on this stock in the past based on his concerns with the dividend. Now feels the dividend is safe. Will possibly buy for their high income portfolios. | 2004-11-16 | |
| HOLD | 16.600 | Veronika Hirsch | Feels the dividend is sustainable. Energy business is growing, so they might be able to muddle through. | 2004-11-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | 15.850 | James Cole, BA, CFA | Has been falling because the market is not enamoured by moves made by the management team and is very concerned abut the dividend. PAying out more in dividends that what is being earned in net earnings. Prefers others. | 2004-10-18 | |
| DON'T BUY | 16.790 | David Baskin | Doesn't earn its dividend, so not sure how safe the dividend is. If power prices go up, they could get bailed out. | 2004-10-04 | |
| BUY | 16.490 | Gordon Higgins, CA, MBA, CFA | Excellant prospects. | 2004-09-30 | |
| DON'T BUY | 16.570 | Peter Brieger | Not a fan of management. Dividend may have to be cut. | 2004-09-29 | |
| TOP PICK | 16.780 | Norman Levine | 6% yield. Not currently earning the dividend, but it will in future. Has tons of csah flow. Presently going through a heavy maintenance period which is using up a lot of money, but short term pain = long term gain. | 2004-09-28 | |
| DON'T BUY | 16.780 | Michael Sprung | Would be concerned about their ability to maintain the dividend as they haven't been earning it. Trades at a fairly significant premium to book value. | 2004-09-28 | |
| WEAK BUY | 16.540 | Rob Callander | As the energy industry includes, this company should improve. Risky. | 2004-09-23 | |
| TOP PICK | 15.910 | Andrew McCreath | Yields about 6.6%. Believes this dividend is sustainable. They are hedged on the coal side. Feels they will win some contracts from the Ontario government. | 2004-09-08 | |
| HOLD | 15.850 | David Cockfield | Yield is over 6%. Dividend is pretty safe. Positive feelings so hold it. | 2004-09-03 | |
| DON'T BUY | 15.700 | John Stephenson | Stock is expensive. It is still elevated. The company's margin is terrible. | 2004-08-30 | |
| DON'T BUY | 16.160 | Martin Hubbes, CFA | Not sure that they are able to support the dividend. Have some solid assets but they have to be run a bit better. | 2004-08-23 | |
| DON'T BUY | 15.860 | Michael Sprung | A lot of the earnings outlook has been mitigated. Investors have been looking for the company to earn $.65. On multiple basis, it's in the middle of the pack. Book value is in the neighborhood of $13. Has a high dividend which is suspect. | 2004-08-17 | |
| BUY | 15.870 | Gavin Graham | Big capital expansion costs are now on the way. 6 1/4% dividend which is probably safe. | 2004-08-12 | |
| DON'T BUY | 15.450 | Laura Wallace | Dividend of almost 6 1/2% tells you that this may not hold. Have had some earnings difficulties and the balance sheet is quite levered. | 2004-08-09 | |
| DON'T BUY | 15.550 | David Baskin | The Company is not earning the dividend and the market is concerned that the dividend will be cut so the price is dropping. As being hit with a series of maintenance problems and unplanned outages and disappointment in power generation. | 2004-07-29 | |
| HOLD | 15.550 | Gavin Graham | Wouldn't worry about the dividend being cut. They run the business pretty well and have got the big capital expenditure out of the way. Generating free cash flow. Will never be a growth stock. | 2004-07-29 | |
| DON'T BUY | 15.860 | Gordon Higgins, CA, MBA, CFA | 6% yield. This year, the earnings will be lower than the dividend. Not without risk. | 2004-07-23 | |
| BUY | 15.920 | Blair Wilson | Have yet to prove that they can maintain costs through an operating and maintenance basis. Has a sector outperform recommendation with a target of $21 with a high risk caveat. Presume that the dividend will not be cut. | 2004-07-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | 16.660 | Bruce Campbell | A no growth story. You are only buying a dividend. Would prefer others instead such as BCE or Enbridge. | 2004-07-05 | |
| DON'T BUY | 16.750 | James Cole, BA, CFA | Investors have been chasing yields so much that any company with a decent dividend has been driven up to historical high P/E's. This doesn't offer the prospect for a great rate of return. Would prefer Atco at 11 X earnings. | 2004-06-30 | |
| DON'T BUY | 16.390 | David Chapman | On the fundamental side, has no idea why the stock is having such a struggle. Chart indicates a steady downtrend. At this price, the yield is just over 6%. | 2004-06-28 | |
| HOLD | 16.310 | Michael Sprung | Has been dropping due to concerns on interest rates but reaching a price level where it could stabilize. | 2004-06-21 | |
| DON'T BUY | 16.880 | Peter Brieger | Can see much of a move occurring in this stock. | 2004-06-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | 16.880 | David Baskin | Lost their confidence in management. Seemed to have a lot of problems. Has a pretty good dividend, but with rising interest rates it becomes less attractive. | 2004-06-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | 16.650 | John Stephenson | Under credit watch with Moody's and Dominion Bond Rating Service. Way too much debt. Free cash flow is very low. | 2004-06-10 | |
| DON'T BUY | 16.710 | Robert Floyd | Essentially avoiding regulated businesses at this time. Interest rate exposure is very high. | 2004-06-01 | |
Experts that have talked about Transalta Corp
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