| BUY | 50.210 | John O'Connell, CFA | There are a lot of questions out there with regards to supply of different materials in China because of the earthquake. This company gives you good exposure to the commodity play. | 2008-05-15 | |
| HOLD | 50.210 | Steve MacInnes | Have tremendous high-quality asset base. He has trimmed his holdings a little bit. Pretty richly valued. Wouldn’t be surprised if earnings estimates were revised up, but a lot of this is built in. | 2008-05-15 | |
| DON'T BUY | 48.100 | Bruce Campbell | Coal has been really hot in this one is about one third coal. You could buy it here if you are desperate to hold it, but the upside is only 8% to 10%. It may pull back as coal quiets down. Would prefer paying $45 or lower. | 2008-05-09 | |
| Comment | 49.120 | Brian Acker, CA | He has a model price of $72.46, a 50% upside. Thinks the high would be about $49.70 and if it broke through that he would Buy and use $49.70 as a Stop. | 2008-05-08 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 43.600 | Peter Brieger | There are very few major blue chip companies in Canada. Fabulous portfolio of resource assets. Small compared to some of the international giants. Fits into his long-term thesis that you want to own hard assets in the ground in an inflationary environment. Would like it at $40. | 2008-05-01 | |
| BUY | 43.820 | Michael Sprung | Earnings are going to be in the neighbourhood of $5 over the next 2 years or so. Cash flows are going to be $6.50 roughly. At current prices, it's a fairly compelling valuation. Selling at just over 2X BV. | 2008-04-30 | |
| BUY | 43.200 | Robert Floyd | (Market Call Minute.) He does like this one. Continuing to acquire assets in a very strategic fashion. | 2008-04-29 | |
| HOLD | 45.890 | John Zechner | Position very well in some of the best performing commodities right now. Metallurgical coal has been fantastic. He has cut his position in half. He would look at it in the low $40 or high $30. | 2008-04-28 | |
| BUY | 47.180 | David Cockfield | (Market Call Minute.) Doesn't think we are going to have the decline in zinc and copper prices that the market has built in. | 2008-04-24 | |
| BUY | 48.260 | David Driscoll | (Market Call Minute.) Good long-term buy. | 2008-04-23 | |
| DON'T BUY | 48.280 | Ravi Sood | The story of the day for them is their position in coal, particularly Fording (FDG.UN-T) and the process there. Would prefer to own Fording as it is a more pure play on coal. | 2008-04-21 | |
| HOLD | 47.500 | Peter Brieger | Sold his holdings sometime ago but is considering buying it back, at around $45. This is a long-term hold. | 2008-04-17 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 47.920 | Michael Decter | Down in January on the view that a recession would take down copper prices. It hasn't happened. Copper is still at $4 because China and India are building housing, putting in copper wiring, galvanized sinks, etc. Did a very smart copper acquisition this week. It is also up because of high coal prices. Sold his holdings at $48. Commodity cycle is not over. | 2008-04-16 | |
| BUY | 46.490 | Michael Sprung | His long-term outlook for copper is still fairly strong. He prefers this to others, which he feels has a more rapid potential for earnings and cash flow increases over the next couple of years. | 2008-04-15 | |
| Comment | 46.610 | Bruce Campbell | A lot of their recent move is because of their coal. Getting closer to full valuation, which is in the low $50's so you have to be a little careful here. Trades at 1.5X NAV. | 2008-04-11 | |
| BUY | 47.800 | Norman Levine | Had been a very poor performer from last fall into the winter. Market wasn't looking at the whole company. Have some wonderful assets and is a big player in zinc, coal, gold and the markets. | 2008-04-10 | |
| HOLD | 43.790 | Don Vialoux | Nice upward trend with a nice upward channel. Stock bottomed Jan 14 and since then has gone up 54% so easy money has already been made. Seasonality-Historically base metals stocks do very well from Oct until the end of May so there is still 2 months to go so the channel will probably continue to go higher. Sell at the end of May. | 2008-04-03 | |
| DON'T BUY | 42.030 | Peter Brieger | Has a complex with this one. Projected cash flow out to 2010 is essentially pretty flat. However, looking at the Canadian senior mining scene it is the best of the best and has 1st class management and a wonderful portfolio of assets. Be prepared for a 2, 3-year period of inactivity. | 2008-04-02 | |
| VAGUE | 42.900 | Lyle Stein | Wouldn’t be chasing this stock on the basis it will be taken over. A take over will be very difficult. | 2008-03-28 | |
| HOLD | 38.300 | David Burrows | Likes the space that this stock is in. Stock hasn't behaved terribly well recently. Good for a long term investment. | 2008-03-19 | |
| TOP PICK | 42.910 | Bill Belovay | Highly leveraged to copper, zinc and coal, which are important products for China. They have a very strong shareholding structure, which will prevent anybody from hijacking or buying the company. This is a long-term hold. | 2008-03-13 | |
| HOLD | 42.870 | Laura Wallace | Very diversified metals player. Many analysts have a $50 target, as they are very impressed with its ability to expand its copper production. Good for someone with a long-term horizon. | 2008-03-12 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 41.540 | Michael Sprung | (A Top Pick Feb 20/07. Down 4% including dividends.) Was tempted to choose this as a Top Pick again. Just announced a big increase in their reserve deposits in one of their mines. With copper at almost $4 a pound, the Highland Valley mine will not be closed down now. Extremely strong talent sheet. | 2008-03-05 | |
| BUY | 40.400 | Lawrence Roulston | (Market Call Minute.) Not getting the credit they deserve for what they are getting on the base metal side. | 2008-03-04 | |
| BUY | 40.970 | John O'Connell, CFA | Great company. Hopefully there will be a pullback, but if not you should still have some in your portfolio. Zinc, copper and smelting assets are great. Coal play is tremendous. Have been buying into some pretty nice assets in the Elk Sands area. | 2008-03-03 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 41.190 | Peter Brieger | This should be part of every investor’s long-term portfolio. He is very keen long-term on base metals because of the growth in China and India. The short-term risk is a major slowdown in the US. Split between the A shares and the B shares is holding it back. He would look to buy at around $30-32. | 2008-02-28 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 39.130 | Brian Acker, CA | (A Top Pick Mar 8/07. Down 1% total return.) Still likes this. Model price of $56.59 has been coming down as they adjust earnings going forward. Still a 46% positive differential. | 2008-02-27 | |
| BUY | 34.640 | David Baskin | This company, along with all the other big zinc producers came down sharply as zinc prices fell. An excellent buy at this price. | 2008-02-19 | |
| DON'T BUY | 33.280 | David Burrows | (Market Call Minute.) One of the weaker performing stocks in the basic materials. | 2008-02-15 | |
| WAIT | 33.280 | Laura Wallace | With Inco, Alcan and Falconbridge gone, this is the last of the old guard. Great company and well diversified. Missed on latest earnings. Zinc price is down 38% and there is weakness in copper. Good balance sheet and good long-term mining play but will probably see some more downside in the next few months. Summertime might be a good time to look at it. | 2008-02-15 | |
| BUY | 34.550 | Norman Levine | This is a great one to own for the long run, 3 to 5 years. One of the best managed large cap mining companies in the world. Great properties and great products in the right area. | 2008-02-11 | |
| BUY | 34.550 | Michael Decter | Have been hit, not so much by a commodity prices although zinc has come off quite a bit, but the strong $ and a few projects. Pretty good buy at these prices. Marginally prefers Hudbay Minerals (HBM-T). | 2008-02-11 | |
| TOP PICK | 34.730 | David Cockfield | The largest Canadian base metals mining company. Has copper, lead, zinc and coal. Trading at a multiple of 6.7X and pays a dividend. As lots of cash. | 2008-02-08 | |
| TOP PICK | 34.670 | Bob Stodgell | A great resource play. Well diversified in commodities. Good price. Almost 3% yield. | 2008-02-07 | |
| HOLD | 33.480 | Peter Brieger | Cheap on 2 basic points. PE ratio compared to Anglo American (AAUK-Q), CVRD (?), Rio Tinto (RTP-N) and BHP Billiton (BHP-N) is substantially cheaper. If you add up the market cap of the A and B shares it is tiny compared to these others. Down the road it could be a takeover. | 2008-02-06 | |
| BUY | 36.810 | David Baskin | Had a hot day today because of what is going on in China. Weather in china is terrible and is closing zinc smelters and restricting output of many things. Thinks base metals are going to do okay over the next few years. Currently prices are at a 40% discount to what they were a few months ago. | 2008-02-04 | |
| TOP PICK | 34.900 | Brendan Caldwell | A lot of resource stocks have been hit by concerns of slowdowns. One way of participating in the resource sector in a well-diversified way. Undervalued compared to its global peers. | 2008-02-01 | |
| HOLD | 33.150 | Laura Wallace | Looking at this one because it has pulled off so sharply. Concerned about the price of commodities, particularly copper. Thinks it will be choppy. Mid summer is a great time to buy these companies. | 2008-01-30 | |
| DON'T BUY | 32.790 | David Burrows | Really likes this as a business, but unfortunately the base metals part of the business is fairly economically sensitive. He is concerned about a weaker economy and the metals will under perform in the short run. | 2008-01-28 | |
| Comment | 32.660 | Gordon Higgins, CA, MBA, CFA | Have a good mix of commodities. They own 19% of Fording Coal (FDG.UN-T), which is up because of coal prices. Heavy into zinc, whose prices seem to be weakening. You could see near-term price weakness, but it is a solid company. | 2008-01-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | 32.660 | Benj Gallander | This is still not cheap enough for him to be in. He would find it much more attractive at under $20. | 2008-01-25 | |
| BUY | 31.250 | Paul Harris, CFA | At a level where it is worth buying. One of the issues is that they have zinc, copper, coal, etc. and some of the commodities are not doing well right now but will do well down the road. A bigger issue is management that has been poor of late, and he is looking for changes in the next little while. | 2008-01-24 | |
| Comment | 30.250 | Bruce Campbell | Has God really whacked because obviously it has a lot of zinc that is very economically sensitive. If you buy the super cycle theory that India/China keep the cycle up more than they would otherwise, it is probably over discounted and is probably a good entry point here. | 2008-01-23 | |
| WAIT | 31.320 | Brian Acker, CA | The next level down is $28.25. There is a vicious correction within the commodity space. There has been a slight decrease in only earnings revisions but his model price is $68.72, 100% positive differential, but realistically it wants to go to where it can hold the line here against the selling, which he thinks is $28.25. | 2008-01-17 | |
| Comment | 31.320 | Bill Harris | He is very nervous about the valuation in base metal mining. This is the only one left in Canada. There are a lot of things hanging over it. Overpaid on acquisitions. Would look at backing up the truck in the high $20s. | 2008-01-17 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 32.740 | Don Vialoux | (Market Call Minute.) By at around the $30 level. | 2008-01-16 | |
| BUY | 33.680 | Robert Floyd | This has been a challenging company. It is more a conglomerate of resources as opposed to a specific play. It should trade up modestly over the next little while. | 2008-01-15 | |
| BUY | 34.350 | Peter Brieger | (Market Call Minute.) Long-term Buy. Cheap on P/E ratio. Flat earnings for the next year or so as well as potential pressures on base metal prices. | 2008-01-11 | |
| DON'T BUY | 34.820 | David Taylor, MBA, CFA | A conundrum because it is a great combination of gold and base metals. He would much rather have pure plays. He is bullish on gold but is concerned about base metals. | 2008-01-10 | |
| WAIT | 34.290 | Bill Carrigan | Doesn't think the weakness in base metals is over yet and would wait it out. There was almost a double top last summer with a lower high. Chart also indicates it had a rising wedge before falling. | 2008-01-09 | |
| BUY | 34.100 | Norman Levine | Canadian miners have been hurt because costs are largely in Canadian $’s and the selling price is in US$’s. The worst of that is behind them. Metal prices have also come off for the most part. One of the worst performing has been zinc, their biggest product. He believes we are going into a severe slowdown, possible recession in the US, so he doesn't see a recovery in the near term. However, demand from Asia will prevent them dropping to disaster levels. A Buy for mid-to long-term investors. | 2008-01-07 | |
| BUY | 35.990 | Gavin Graham | Has been oversold at 7X earnings. It is the only large sized diversified miner left in Canada. Good buying opportunity. | 2008-01-02 | |
| Comment | 36.060 | Peter Brieger | Have bought and sold this one well. Looking at the earnings and cash flow growth, this year over next year, it is pretty flat. There also were worries about the declining base metal market. Its combined market cap is about $35 billion. P/E is about 12 to 14. On a worldwide basis it is cheap. | 2007-12-28 | |
| DON'T BUY | 36.150 | Benj Gallander | Has certainly come off, but not a contrarian play. He was amazed at how high it had actually gone. Had a lot of money and bought a lot of companies at the height of the cycle. This does not bode well for them. | 2007-12-24 | |
| TOP PICK | 33.650 | Brian Acker, CA | Even though management guided down on the earnings for 08, it has not really affected his model price of $75.35. That is a 125% positive differential. | 2007-12-20 | |
| WATCH | 33.650 | Ross Healey | Becoming very interested in this stock. Another $2 or $3 on the downside gets it to very interesting technical support. The FMV is out of sight compared to the current price. If you Buy, do it for the long term. | 2007-12-20 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 34.160 | David Baskin | (A Past Top Pick. Jan 10/07. Down 10.1%.) Base metals have been remarkably volatile in the last little while. From his point of view, you have to own these stocks. Thinks it has been oversold and is a buying opportunity. | 2007-12-18 | |
| BUY | 34.160 | Norman Levine | Starting to worry about a stagflation environment. Mining shares would be an area that would generally do well so having money in this area would be a good idea. Good assets. | 2007-12-18 | |
| Comment | 33.900 | Brendan Kyne | Down for 2 reasons. 1) Has been caught up in the commodities correction. 2) Has had some cost overruns and they have had to push off some projects. Good quality company that is just facing a tough environment that should amend itself in the 2nd half of 08. | 2007-12-17 | |
| PARTIAL BUY | 35.900 | Jeff Parent | Think it has found a bit of a bottom here. Getting caught up in what is called the industry affect. In this case, commodities where really overbought. On the down side, it could drop $2. Metals are risky right now. You have to get out of it if it hits $32. You can buy a small position now and if it hits $35 you add some more and if it hits $40 you add again. | 2007-12-14 | |
| Comment | 36.320 | Alex Ruus | Short-term, he is somewhat bearish on metal pricing because of the weakening global economy. 2.5% yield and trades at 8X consensus earnings. Also have exposure through coal (Partnered with Fording Coal (FDG.UN-T)) and the oil sands. If you are bullish on base metals, this is a great holding. | 2007-12-13 | |
| HOLD | 36.320 | Paul Harris, CFA | Likes most of the fundamentals for the stock. One of the issues that he has is that they have made a couple of bad acquisitions, which has hurt the stock. Zinc, coal, their interest in the oil sands are all good things for this company. Would be an aggressive buyer at $30. | 2007-12-13 | |
| BUY | 39.350 | John O'Connell, CFA | Had a couple of disappointments, the most recent the shelving of the joint Galore Creek venture. Strong balance sheet and a well-diversified portfolio. Coal prices look to be fairly favourable in the longer term. Good price. | 2007-12-10 | |
| TOP PICK | 39.350 | Michael Sprung | Re-evaluating their position with respect to Fording (FDG.UN-T), in particular with regards to the Elk assets. | 2007-12-10 | |
| TOP PICK | 37.480 | Norman Levine | (His 3 Top Picks will not give you instant gratification, but are to be held for 1, 2, 3 years.) Has been hurt recently because 1) it is not a takeover candidate and 2) a major project, Galore Creek was cancelled because of costs. | 2007-12-03 | |
| Comment | 38.300 | Ross Healey | FMV is about 4X the current price. This would normally make it awfully good value, but it does not behave well technically and he wonders if the market is expecting a recession. Commodity prices and earnings forecasts are holding up well. Can't see any reason not to like it but it doesn't act well. | 2007-11-30 | |
| BUY | 35.880 | David Baskin | Very inexpensive. Has been oversold. Base metal story is not a one-month story. Thinks demand from Asia for commodities is going to continue to grow. | 2007-11-29 | |
| HOLD | 34.830 | Michael Smedley | Suspended operations at Galore Creek’s massive gold/copper project because of high capital costs. Stock was hit hard. This is the only real major mining company left in Canada. | 2007-11-27 | |
| TOP PICK | 34.830 | Fred Ketchen | Pulled the plug on Galore Lake and he feels they did the right thing. If the cost is out of line, pull back and wait. | 2007-11-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | 35.670 | Peter Brieger | Growth in China has been focused on infrastructure and plant capacity. Capacity is well in excess of demand, both domestically and exports and growth can go down by 2%. If this happens, he can’t see base metal prices doing very much. | 2007-11-26 | |
| Comment | 37.490 | Ron Meisels | Back in 2003 it was a $5 stock and rose to $50. As the stock price went up, institutions had to sell when it became too big a portion of their portfolios. Recently corrected and has gone through a 3 leg correction. Probably getting very close to the end of it. Somewhere around $35 - $37 it may be a good buying opportunity. Would really like to see the stock get momentum very shortly. | 2007-11-23 | |
| BUY | 36.670 | Bruce Campbell | Hasn't been this cheap for a while. Copper is going down, so the stock is following. If you can, buy half now and wait for a few weeks for the balance. Could be a trade. | 2007-11-22 | |
| TOP PICK | 38.890 | Brian Acker, CA | Stock is currently reacting to the price of zinc, but fundamentals have not changed. Using the earnings one year out he sees the stock at $46. | 2007-11-20 | |
| BUY | 38.890 | Norman Levine | 3rd quarter results were down a little. Zinc and copper prices are also down but they are a big gold producer. Still thinks we are in the long-term super cycle. Still buying for his clients. | 2007-11-20 | |
| BUY | 43.140 | Robert Floyd | At this price, you could certainly have a trade in the stock, if nothing else. Now has oil/gas, base metal and precious metal exposure. More of a resource play. | 2007-11-14 | |
| DON'T BUY | 41.700 | Bill Carrigan | Had a very long up trend line, which was violated in July. Feels there is too much interest in mining stocks. When there is overcrowding in a sector, something bad happens. The August low is important, so if you are in this stock don't let it violate that low. | 2007-11-13 | |
| BUY | 41.700 | Bill Belovay | Well diversified mining company. Has all the commodities you want other than nickel. Believes the commodity cycle is going to be continuing. Buy for the next 5 years. There is not enough copper around to satisfy the hunger of the emerging markets. | 2007-11-13 | |
| BUY | 44.640 | Norman Levine | Favourite mining stock after Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce (RIO-N) (see Top Picks). All their commodities are priced in US$’s and reporting in Cdn$ has to hurt. The drop in stock is a great opportunity. Doesn't see a lot of weakness in metal shares looking forward. | 2007-11-09 | |
| BUY | 44.040 | Don Lato | Outlook remains pretty strong. Global economy is still growing. Well diversified among many different metals. The only pure play large mining company in Canada. | 2007-11-08 | |
| TOP PICK | 45.650 | Brian Acker, CA | People were very disappointed with the earnings, as they didn't grow. He has a model price of $76.45. About a 62% positive differential. | 2007-11-01 | |
| HOLD | 46.350 | Gavin Graham | They have had a minor decline of 2-3% even with the currency. It is the only major Canadian conglomerate in mining left. They will continue to make other acquisitions. Recommends taking money out of Alcan and putting into this stock. Should have full weight exposure. | 2007-10-29 | |
| HOLD | 47.700 | Michael Sprung | One of our primary holdings in tech sector. Remains fairly attractively valued. Holding onto it. Could see some significant capital gains in tech. | 2007-10-26 | |
| WEAK BUY | 47.700 | Steve Carlin | Been less volatile than other mining names. More diversified than other names. Copper looks pretty good. See upside, like the name. | 2007-10-25 | |
| VAGUE | 48.110 | Bruce Campbell | Alcan disappears tomorrow, so for Canadian minors, this is it.
They may spin the gold out, to make a higher value.
Short term looks good because the prices are high. | 2007-10-24 | |
| BUY | 48.110 | David Baskin | Likes the stock, thinks the recent acquisitions have been smart. They've got the metals that everyone wants. He thinks the base metals are an Asian story, not a US story, so the US going into recession won't be as significant as it would have been. | 2007-10-23 | |
| BUY | 48.110 | Norman Levine | It is one of his major holdings in the metal and mining business. It is becoming more of a copper play. The outlook looks good. He would not hesitate to buy it at this price. | 2007-10-23 | |
| DON'T BUY | 47.320 | Bill Carrigan | Has been a great story. Thinks it's at the end, not the beginning. Be cautious. He could be implying sell as well. | 2007-10-17 | |
| WEAK BUY | 47.320 | Peter Brieger | Great portfolio. Canadian economy will hurt. Are presently considering buying it. | 2007-10-17 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 50.210 | Laura Wallace | Long term, very well positioned. Would buy in the $40-$45 range. | 2007-10-15 | |
| WATCH | 51.240 | Kenneth P. Norquay, CMT | A perfect example of “buy stocks in an uptrend” and hold them until they break. The one-year chart shows that it has just about made it back to the high of July. In the short term, there will be resistance. It will cool off a little and then have an uptrend which is when you should buy. | 2007-10-12 | |
| BUY | 50.990 | Brian Acker, CA | Loves the stock. The story still continues. He has a model price of $73.77, a 47% positive differential. | 2007-10-10 | |
| BUY | 49.610 | Ross Healey | Have a terrific spread of minerals. Upside potential for the company is $150-$160, so why doesn't the stock move? Has had a long history of peeking out at 4X Book, which is about $60. Not a takeout candidate, so it doesn't have a takeout premium. Treat it as a long-term Hold. | 2007-10-05 | |
| BUY | 46.640 | Derek Webb, CFA | Got long Immediately on fed decision. Think dollar will continue to go down. Commodities prices go up. Tech will continue to go up. | 2007-09-19 | |
| HOLD | 43.050 | Norman Levine | Have some of the best assets, product mix and management in North America and much of the world. Good dividend. | 2007-09-11 | |
| BUY | 44.170 | Robert Floyd | Has a broad diversification of resource plays. Their last acquisition of Aur Resources was interesting and adds to their copper exposure. Also have oil sands assets and zinc. Can see much higher prices for this company. | 2007-09-06 | |
| BUY | 43.520 | Brian Acker, CA | He has a model price of $59.05 giving it a 58% positive differential. | 2007-08-30 | |
| WAIT | 43.580 | Norman Levine | Market came off yesterday and metals were the leaders on the way down. This is due to their economic sensitivity. However the huge growth out of India and China will put a floor on the price of metals. In the near term, there is no rush to own this one b | 2007-08-29 | |
| BUY | 44.890 | John O'Connell, CFA | They are assembling a wonderful portfolio of copper, zinc, and gold assets. Also expanding into the oil sands area through joint venture agreements with Petro Canada (PCA-T) and UTS (UTS-T). | 2007-08-27 | |
| WAIT | 44.890 | Don Vialoux | Chart is typical for the base metal sector. Good upward trend with a trading range. Had a nice bounce from a key support level this month. Seasonal strength is October through April. | 2007-08-27 | |
| BUY | 44.500 | David Baskin | Have the right combination of metals in today's market. One of the big producers of zinc. Acquiring Aur resources which will make them one of the big producers in copper. Strong demand for copper from China. | 2007-08-23 | |
Experts that have talked about Teck Cominco Ltd. (B)
