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| Comment | 33.780 | Bruce Campbell | After Petrocan acquisition they’re selling gas and non-core assets and retreating to being primarily oil sands. Very good at it and one of the lowest cost producers. If oil prices get back to oscillating between $70 and $85, this will probably go back to the $39-$40 level. (See Top Picks.) | 2010-09-02 | |
| DON'T BUY | 32.310 | Mason Granger | Looks like they are turning the corner. Had a rough start to 2010 with operational upsets as well as the pain of the merger process with Petrocan. Have a firebag expansion coming on next year so there will be some incremental production growth. There are better places to be. | 2010-08-31 | |
| Comment | 32.700 | Don Vialoux | Has been an under performing stocks in the energy sector. Wouldn't be surprised to see this break short-term support over the next few weeks. Historically it has bottomed right around 3rd week of November and then does well until the 1st week of May. | 2010-08-27 | |
| BUY | 31.980 | Michael Sprung | One of his largest holdings in the energy group. A dominant company in Canada. They are going down as the price of energy is going down. He would be buying it at current levels. | 2010-08-25 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 32.680 | Philip Doyle | (A Top Pick Feb 5/10. Up .02% excluding dividends.) Likes the oil sands. | 2010-08-20 | |
| DON'T BUY | 32.990 | Bill Carrigan | Obviously range bound. Market is worried about the price of crude, can the company make money regardless of the price of crude and if they can digest the Petrocan assets. If you want to you can trade the range of roughly $31-$35. Thinks there are better places to be. | 2010-08-19 | |
| BUY | 33.110 | Jamie Horvat | Secure supply of assets in the ground in an environment of a decline in conventional light crude globally. Feels they can continue to have production growth going forward. Trading at 18X with a reserve life index of 50 years plus. | 2010-08-16 | |
| TOP PICK | 32.910 | Steven Conville | Petrocan integration is moving along and they are starting to divest non-core assets. | 2010-08-13 | |
| BUY | 33.340 | Don Lato | Had some operational problems but judging from the 2nd quarter results, they have solved some of the issues. Had some great asset sales. Would buy in the $32-$33 area. | 2010-08-11 | |
| BUY | 34.730 | Barry Schwarrtz | Suncor (SU-T) or Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T)? Owns and likes both of the better one right now on a valuation basis is CNQ and you get a little bit more bang for your buck. More production and cheaper valuation. In a diversified portfolio you can own both of them and be very happy. | 2010-08-10 | |
| TOP PICK | 34.270 | Jim Huang | The pre-eminent oil sands company in Canada and perfected the art of oil sands mining and the SAGD technique. Been some transition/operation issues with Petrocan merger but they are overcoming this. Very capable management. $45 at $85 oil in a couple of years. | 2010-08-09 | |
| BUY | 34.180 | Brooke Thackray | Premier oil sands name. Had a few problems. Right now we are seeing oil $82 and inventories are a little high. From a seasonal perspective there is a move that takes place this time of year into beginning of October. It has bounced off support. | 2010-08-05 | |
| TOP PICK | 34.470 | Bruce Campbell | Looking for 5 to 7 years of 10% per year good production growth. Relatively low risk. About 12X earnings, 6.5X cash flow and asset value in the mid-$40's. Thinks the stock is undervalued by about 20%. | 2010-08-04 | |
| TOP PICK | 33.040 | Michael Sprung | Dominant player in the Canadian oil patch. Still digesting the Petrocan assets. What happens to energy will be reflected in this company. Operating problems affected the stock price. Expecting cash flows to go up significantly for the next few years. | 2010-07-28 | |
| BUY | 33.680 | Christine Poole | Leveraged to crude and are a major oil sands producer. Selling off some of the Petrocan assets and using the proceeds in the oil sands. Have had a couple of fires but this is resolvable. | 2010-07-26 | |
| BUY | 33.380 | John Stephenson | Should do fairly well in relation to previous quarters. Have had a heck of a last 3-4 quarters with fires at the various upgraders, which cut off a third to two thirds of their production. | 2010-07-23 | |
| STRONG BUY | 33.130 | Barry Schwarrtz | Everyone should own oil sands. Long life asset in a politically and geographically secure area. Lots of upside. BP spill changed paradigm of where we are going to get oil from. | 2010-07-20 | |
| Comment | 32.330 | Bill Carrigan | Chart shows the 200-day moving average is around $34 area and he thinks the stock will rally to around $38. This company has a lot of work to do. Thinks this is a trading stock so when it gets up to $38, trade out of it. | 2010-07-16 | |
| HOLD | 32.830 | Peter Brieger | A first-class company and technically one of the most competent groups, particularly in the oil sands area however, prefers Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T), which is substantially cheaper. | 2010-07-14 | |
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| BUY on WEAKNESS | 33.180 | Dennis Da Silva | A premier oil sands company. Have worked hard to get past the issues of operational problems. Well run company with long life assets. Try to buy under $30 and lighten up when he gets to the $38-$39 range. | 2010-07-13 | |
| TOP PICK | 33.080 | Norman Levine | Incredibly cheap. The merger with Petrocan is now starting to throw off the savings he was hoping for. Thinks it will be more than $1,4 billion in savings. Good growth prospects both in oil sands and regular type of oil. Expect they will grow the dividend regularly. | 2010-07-09 | |
| TOP PICK | 32.880 | Brian Acker, CA | His model price is $43.01, which is a differential of 32%. Understands their credit rating is going to get a boost in a day or two on their debt side. | 2010-07-08 | |
| BUY | 31.230 | David Baskin | Oil is extraordinarily volatile. As recovery takes hold he expects oil to be moving in an upward direction. Production down for June because of some unscheduled maintenance. He is happy to be a holder of this. Buying for new and existing clients. | 2010-07-06 | |
| BUY | 31.230 | David Baskin | (Market Call Minute) Oil sands go on forever and political woes wont go on forever. | 2010-07-06 | |
| DON'T BUY | 31.110 | Rick Stuchberry | He is trying to position his energy stocks with more yields. Nothing wrong with this one, great operation and well run but only pays 1%. The Petrocan merger, long-term, is a good one. Energy stocks generally are not strong in the summer (See Top Picks.) | 2010-07-02 | |
| STRONG BUY | 31.330 | Michael Sprung | Likes the longer-term fundamentals for energy and this one is a dominant player in Canada. Good value at current levels. Could see earnings going up through $2 over the next year or two and cash flows approaching $6 a share. | 2010-06-30 | |
| BUY | 33.000 | Bruce Campbell | Will have a couple of quarters that will be flat. They are about $2.5 billion into a $4 billion program of selling non-core assets. Looking for 10%-12% production growth starting the end of the year, which is highly attractive. | 2010-06-28 | |
| BUY | 34.040 | Don Lato | Good entry point. 1st quarter suffered from operating difficulties. Just announced more asset disposing. Very well run. | 2010-06-23 | |
| TOP PICK | 33.730 | Jim Huang | Has been around since 1960s. It’s THE oil sands company. They’ve been taking time to fix up operating performance. Massive cash flow and lots of growth. Well Managed. | 2010-06-22 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 34.540 | David Burrows | (A Top Pick June 15/09. Down 5%.) At the time it looked like oil sands had an opportunity in front of them in the short run. Sold his holdings in the fall of 09. Had a number of operational difficulties. | 2010-06-21 | |
| WEAK BUY | 34.480 | Peter Brieger | Prefers CNQ because it is not burdened with Petro Can. There is a period of time until they rationalize that blip. They have terrific expertise and great management. | 2010-06-15 | |
| BUY | 33.510 | Barry Schwarrtz | Huge reserve and in a politically stable area giving it a significant amount of premium. Great area to invest in. Got sold down dramatically in the past few weeks. Great buy here. | 2010-06-14 | |
| BUY | 33.390 | Eric Nuttall | They are in the process of selling of some of the legacy assets. About 75% of assets are now oil sands. Figures they are heading for 90%. Given the passage of time, it will regain more of a premium multiple. (Long term investment) | 2010-06-10 | |
| BUY | 32.500 | Norman Levine | He expects oil to stay at a relatively high price. What’s happening in Mexico is good for the price of oil. No new drilling is being allowed. SU is a terrific bargain, although still a ‘show me’ stock. | 2010-06-09 | |
| DON'T BUY | 32.500 | Jeff Parent | Chart for CNQ looks better than this one. If stock moved up to $35 he would change his mind. | 2010-06-09 | |
| BUY | 33.290 | David Baskin | The price of oil is going up and down like a yoyo today. Bi companies like SU follow oil on an interim day basis. This is a great time to buy. What’s going on in the gulf makes SU look good. They may not have the most environmentally benign process in the world, but it looks good. He is buying it. | 2010-06-03 | |
| DON'T BUY | 33.170 | Douglas Kee | Has owned it and made money on it. Acquisition of Petro Can made it more interesting and they did a good job of selling off assets. Good quality company. Longer term it is a good company. Short term it is a little volatile because of oil prices. He has eliminated most of it and moved to Cenovus because of better prospects of raising the dividend. | 2010-06-02 | |
| BUY | 31.890 | John Zechner | Seeing the benefits of the merger. What’s going on in the gulf is not going to affect them. You are going to experience the benefit of the value of the oil sands. | 2010-06-01 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 32.500 | Philip Doyle | (Top Pick Dec 18/09, Down 9.56%) | 2010-05-31 | |
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| TOP PICK | 32.080 | John Stephenson | Generally speaking, oil has lagged the market recovery so expects they will go quite a bit higher. Had problems with fire. Integration with Petrocan has not gone as well as people had hoped. April numbers where incredibly strong so it looks like they have finally turned the corner. Superlative management team and one of the best reservoirs. Long reserve life. | 2010-05-28 | |
| TOP PICK | 32.370 | Brian Acker, CA | $41.62 is his model price. A 35% upside. In the Canadian market, oils have a lot of value in them. | 2010-05-27 | |
| Comment | 32.370 | Michael Smedley | There is quite a lot of oil available. The proof of that is the disaster in the Gulf has not pushed oil to $90. | 2010-05-27 | |
| Comment | 30.690 | Christine Poole | Very leveraged to oil. Since acquisition of Petrocan they have been selling assets and using proceeds to pay down debt and funding of CapX to expand their oil sands. If you like exposure to crude, this is a great play. | 2010-05-26 | |
| BUY | 30.660 | Barry Schwarrtz | Planning on growing their production 10% a year. Not a bad time to step in. They are over their worst. If oil stabilizes it will go back to $33 and has to be worth $45-50. | 2010-05-25 | |
| TOP PICK | 31.190 | Jim Huang | Likes oil sands which is a long-term sustainable source of oil. This is one of the better oil sands players with good quality assets. Acquired Petrocan and has gone through some integration processes with some pain. Overcoming the integration problems and selling off some assets. | 2010-05-21 | |
| DON'T BUY | 31.150 | Paul Harris, CFA | (Market Call Minute.) Doesn't like this one. But a very different company when they got Petrocan, which he didn't like anyways. A lot of execution risks. | 2010-05-19 | |
| BUY | 31.260 | Bruce Campbell | All global senior oil has pulled back today. Likes oil sands longer-term. Low-cost. Doing a good job on fairly aggressive selling of non-core Petrocan assets. Earnings this year will be relatively flat and will start to rise substantially in 2011. Anytime it is at this price, it is a buy. | 2010-05-17 | |
| HOLD | 32.060 | Rick Stuchberry | We are in the shoulder season meaning there is not a lot of consumption until the summer driving and air conditioning seasons in the US. Oil companies don't do a lot until later in the summer. He plays energy by buying yield stocks such as Arc Energy (AET.UN-T), Enerplus (ERF.UN-T) or Crescent Point (CPG-T). Looking out, prospects are very good for this company. | 2010-05-14 | |
| BUY | 32.840 | Michael Simpson, CFA | In the penalty box because of 2 fires in their upgraders. There will be a turnaround in the refineries this summer. Starting to take out some of the costs from their merger with PetroCan. Trading at about 6X 2011 price to cash flow. | 2010-05-13 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 31.940 | Jamie Horvat | Continues to like it longer term. Have 50-year reserve life in the oil sands asset. BP issue is having a positive effect. Added to his position a few weeks ago and the past few days. | 2010-05-11 | |
| Comment | 32.370 | Karl Berger | Reasonably good name in Canada and you don't have currency exposure. Prefers beyond Canada with larger firms that have better balance sheets and better resources in the ground such as Shell (RDS.A-N), Exxon (XOM-N) and Chevron (CVX-N). | 2010-05-06 | |
| DON'T BUY | 32.370 | Brooke Thackray | Seasonality for oil is from November 25 until the beginning of May, right now. Chart shows it got turned down from its resistance point and is in a little bit of a channel. If it goes below $27, he would be very cautious. | 2010-05-06 | |
| TOP PICK | 32.510 | Norman Levine | Has missed expectations for investors when it was PetroCanada but exceeded them when they were Suncor. The merger gets the great assets of Petrocan and the great management of Suncor. Starting to beat expectations. | 2010-05-05 | |
| WEAK BUY | 33.570 | Mike S. Newton, CIM FCSI | Coming back on his Buy radar. An awakening technical laggard that looks like it wants to break out. Has taken time to swallow the Petrocan acquisitions and have had some issues in their oil sands project. (See Top Picks.) | 2010-04-28 | |
| TOP PICK | 33.910 | Michael Sprung | An excellent way to play the oil sands. Good long-term value and excellent assets. Cleaning out some of the PetroCan assets. | 2010-04-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | 33.860 | Paul Harris, CFA | Can see a lot of growth from this, so doesn't own it. Still a lot of merger risks. | 2010-04-22 | |
| BUY | 34.070 | Craig Machel | On an energy pairs trade, what would be the other side for this company? He likes this one on the Long side. The other side might be another oil stock or natural gas stock that he is not so happy with. | 2010-04-21 | |
| TOP PICK | 34.050 | Bruce Campbell | Oldest operator, the best and cheapest. Had a couple of fires lately and it will take them a year or so to sell off the Petrocan assets that don't fit. Expect they will come out the other end with growth and focus. | 2010-04-19 | |
| TOP PICK | 34.050 | Jim Huang | They have figured out how to operate in the oil sands. Have been going through some pain with the merger with Petrocan and then disposing of some assets and fixing some operational issues. Very cheap. | 2010-04-19 | |
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| TOP PICK | 33.650 | John Stephenson | Had problems with upgrader fires and weaker earnings because of integration. World-class management team and resources. Production is ramping up. Next few quarters will look poor but he is looking for production to go up 2.5 fold in 5 years. | 2010-04-16 | |
| BUY | 35.090 | Don Lato | Has been under performing until the last couple of weeks. Had some operating issues with fires at their oil sands. Looks like the worst is over as the stock has rebounded nicely. (See Top Picks.) | 2010-04-14 | |
| DON'T BUY | 34.820 | David Taylor, MBA, CFA | Somewhere in the middle between cheap and expensive. He can come up with better oil stocks. Prefers natural gas to oil. Cheap natural gas prices are unsustainable. | 2010-04-13 | |
| DON'T BUY | 34.820 | Bill Harris, CFA | Was supposed to the great Canadian company, but then the costs got way out of whack. | 2010-04-13 | |
| BUY | 35.180 | John Zechner | Likes this one. Has lagged the group. There is a lot more potential in its Petrocan acquisition than people realize. Assets are undervalued, particularly heavy oil. Put this away for the long term. | 2010-04-12 | |
| BUY | 35.460 | Robert Lyon | Has lagged a lot leading into the recent upside in the oil sector area. Still some challenges with the Petrocan integration. Need to shed some properties and integrate 2 vastly different cultures. Will be a long process. Good long-term hold. | 2010-04-09 | |
| Comment | 34.590 | David Driscoll | Have to be patient with this because of their Petrocan acquisition plus all of the cost overruns in their heavy oil sands projects. Trading at about 6X cash flow, which is a little rich for the seniors. If you can hold it for the next 5 or 10 years, it should be fine. | 2010-04-07 | |
| TOP PICK | 35.170 | Norman Levine | Expectations after the first 6 months of their merger with PetroCan (PCA-T) are rock bottom. Takes a long time to bring these together. In the meantime there are about $1.5 billion of synergies coming out. Refining margins are coming back. Upgrader that was having fires is coming back sooner. | 2010-04-06 | |
| Comment | 33.030 | Rick Stuchberry | When an acquisition of another company is of almost equal size, there is always some indigestion. Selling non-core assets. If you believe crude is going to $100, it is a Strong Buy but if you think crude is in a trading range then Buy on weakness. | 2010-03-31 | |
| BUY | 32.900 | Christine Poole | Oil producer in the oil sands. If you are bullish on crude, this is a stock that you want to own. Acquired PetroCanada and have been selling off some of their assets and taking advantage of the stronger balance sheet to fund the oil sands projects. Likes this one longer term. | 2010-03-30 | |
| HOLD | 31.950 | Randy LeClair | Caller bought 20-25 year bonds at great rates. Certain risks when you start looking at long-term corporate bonds over 10 years. He tends to shy away from them but if they fit in your portfolio and you can hold till maturity, why not. | 2010-03-29 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 30.850 | Philip Doyle | (A Top Pick Dec 17/09. Down 15.8%.) Inherited it from a client. Good proxy for Canadian oil industry and a good company in its own right. Very little risk to the gas price. | 2010-03-26 | |
| DON'T BUY | 30.880 | Paul Harris, CFA | Doesn't like this one as a story. Too early after the acquisition of Petrocan. | 2010-03-25 | |
| BUY | 31.200 | Eric Nuttall | It's been a huge under performer but a tremendous value opportunity for a value-oriented investor. It takes about 6-8 quarters for synergies to work normally. On proven and probable of $80 oil it is trading at 70% of its NAV, extremely cheap. | 2010-03-24 | |
| WEAK BUY | 31.200 | Barry Schwarrtz | Prefers Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) but holds this one also. Having significant production problems and missing targets. If you are a long-term investor, this is a good time to buy. | 2010-03-24 | |
| WATCH | 31.200 | Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI | Under performed. Has built a base in the last few months. Good risk/reward if it could get out of the current congestion zone. | 2010-03-22 | |
| BUY | 32.130 | Michael Smedley | Is really down but is improving and should continue. Political and royalty complexions are improving in Alberta for the whole industry. | 2010-03-18 | |
| BUY | 32.120 | Michael Sprung | Have had their share of disappointments. Missed on their latest quarter. Also had a fire at an upgrader. Can see a lot of room for improvement. 6-7X next year’s cash flow looks quite compelling. | 2010-03-17 | |
| BUY | 31.360 | David Baskin | (Market Call Minute) Undervalued. | 2010-03-16 | |
| SELL | 31.840 | Jeff Parent | Likes oil, but this stock does not look good. Doesn't like the down trend that he sees from January to March. Fairly big drop. Earnings estimates have been reduced. | 2010-03-12 | |
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| TOP PICK | 31.390 | Norman Levine | In a year or two the synergies will come together on these two. This is a time when you can buy stick and put it away and come back in a year or two and it will look good. This is a nice buying opportunity. | 2010-03-09 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 31.390 | Norman Levine | (Top Pick Feb 27/09, Up 63.9%) Because it is such a big merger it is taking time for some of the synergies to work. Also a poor market worldwide. Good time to buy it here | 2010-03-09 | |
| TOP PICK | 30.410 | John Stephenson | One of his favourite names. Has been disappointing for investors recently. It had several fires, which was a real negative, while the 3rd and 4th quarter were disappointing. But it has the best management team, visible reserve life that is very strong. Eventually when you get through the integration with Petro Canada, this is a must-have name for the next 12 months. | 2010-03-05 | |
| DON'T BUY | 30.410 | Bill Harris, CFA | Tailings technology is very important to the industry but probably does not impact cash flow that much. They got to the point where as oil price came off in 2008, their costs went through the roof. They were suddenly a bad operator. Just as they were to get on top of it and show they could run it efficiently, they went and bought Petro Canada, so you can’t tell if they are operating it efficiently. | 2010-03-03 | |
| BUY | 30.410 | Linda Shick | Good long-term story. Going through a bit of issue with the Petro can assets. Problem with facilities and fires. It will take some time to sort this out. It will eventually go back up. Integration of Petrocan may take a while to sort out and it is the catalyst. | 2010-03-02 | |
| DON'T BUY | 30.410 | Ron Meisels | Stock broke below the 200 day moving average. There should be support at $30. He is watching to see if it holds. | 2010-03-02 | |
| TOP PICK | 30.410 | John Zechner | The integration is slow. It was a tough one to put together. Suncor was a great operator and Petro Canada was an underutilized resource. In the end it is probably a good combination. Thinks it will work out. | 2010-03-01 | |
| DON'T BUY | 30.410 | David Cockfield | Was positive, but is now neutral or even negative. | 2010-02-26 | |
| DON'T BUY | 30.540 | David Baskin | These fires have been plaguing them and raise uncertainty about the process and whether it can ever become efficient. Value of the resource in the ground is so great and that is why he owns it. Not excited about natural gas. | 2010-02-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | 30.700 | Paul Gardner, CFA | Acquisition didn’t work. They had operational problems with their oil sands development. Now they bought Petro Canada, which was an unfocused, crappy company. They took it in and now they are this behemoth. Now you are not going to have any idea for 3 years how it has turned out. He prefers Imperial Oil, CNQ. | 2010-02-24 | |
| WEAK BUY | 30.850 | Michael Smedley | Not aware of the technology for the tailing fields, but that would be a big plus. You’ve go the absorption of Petrol Canada. The investment community underestimated the challenges of the integration. | 2010-02-23 | |
| BUY | 31.550 | Barry Schwarrtz | Had trouble – fires, production targets not met. If you are a patient investor, this is a great time to buy. They are going to increase production, raise the dividend over time. | 2010-02-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | 31.930 | David Burrows | Ultimately the Petro Canada acquisition was a good one, but there will be some disappoints in the synergies between Suncor and Petro Canada. From a public relations standpoint an environmental issue could arise south of the border. | 2010-02-19 | |
| WAIT | 31.680 | Paul Harris, CFA | 2 issues: cost structure is slightly out of whack and capital expenditure not coming on line. It will be a reasonable buy at some point, but they have to get some synergies out of the merger. | 2010-02-18 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 31.210 | Derek Webb, CFA | A classic, blue chip, great Canadian stock with a nice yield. If you own buy when it is down and just hold onto it. | 2010-02-11 | |
| HOLD | 31.250 | Dennis Da Silva | This is a tough one. 3rd fire in 5 months. Missed on the quarter so there is a synergy issue with Petrocan. | 2010-02-10 | |
| HOLD | 31.250 | Don Lato | Has had a difficult time in the last couple of weeks. Disappointing earnings results as well is having fire at one of their refineries. Merger with Petrocan seems to be fraught with lack of attention on the core business. Their oil sands property is still a great asset. | 2010-02-10 | |
| DON'T BUY | 31.850 | Benj Gallander | For people who are seeking out blue chips, this could be the one. Oil is one place where manipulation of markets happens and this could have an affect on this stock. | 2010-02-09 | |
| DON'T BUY | 31.280 | Laura Lau | Last quarter was not very good because integration with Petrocan is still going on. You will still get some messy quarters. | 2010-02-08 | |
| BUY | 31.280 | David Baskin | Needs $60 oil to make money and oil has dropped to $70. Keep having operating problems. In the long run, they have incredible asset in oil sands, which will eventually be worth a lot of money. Terrific company for a long-term investor. | 2010-02-08 | |
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| TOP PICK | 31.900 | Philip Doyle | (A Top Pick Dec 18/09. Down 11.3%.) A play on Canada oil sands. Due to the integration of the Petrocan assets it now has an interesting diversified asset base. | 2010-02-05 |
