| BUY | 207.290 | Derek Webb, CFA | Very bullish the whole agricultural complex because of rising demand from India, China and other parts of the world. Actual supply of grains stored all over the world is at the lowest it’s ever been. Has had a nice correction. | 2008-05-16 | |
| Comment | 204.500 | John O'Connell, CFA | Potash prices are very strong and firm and will likely stay that way for a couple of years. There are very few major producers that can supply potash to the needed markets. He would limit this stock to 3% or 4% of your portfolio. In the longer term, there could be more competition. | 2008-05-15 | |
| HOLD | 201.750 | Michael Smedley | We continue to be in this amazing climb in fertilizers for the agricultural sector. | 2008-05-12 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 198.500 | Brooke Thackray | Great chart showing a solid trend and the stock is still well above that trend. It could pull back to the $135-$140 level and he would buy at that level. It across that level and showed weakness he would sell. | 2008-05-09 | |
| Comment | 202.650 | Brian Acker, CA | He has a model price of $136.54, which is a -32% differential. This is a situation where the stock price is anticipating the model price jumping up. Prefers Agrium (AGU-T) which he thinks is better value. | 2008-05-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | 199.700 | Paul Thornton | Fertilizers are in a very interesting situation right now. Made huge long-term moves and very large short-term moves. Historically, the stock is very extended. Once a stock is 70% to 100% from its 200 day moving average, it is looking for a significant short-term decline. A lot of the volume has been on the down side in the group since they peaked a couple of weeks ago. Very high risk right now. | 2008-05-07 | |
| PARTIAL BUY | 186.550 | Peter Brieger | Potash has had rampant speculation over and above the basic investment demand. Changes in diets in emerging markets will mean a long, steadily rising demand for high-protein food. Reasonable entry point, but phase your Buy program over a month or two. Long-term investment. | 2008-05-01 | |
| PARTIAL SELL | 185.390 | Norman Levine | Price has been going up parabolicly and got severely overvalued. The first clue is when the story of food shortages has gone from page 16 to page 1 repeatedly. By the time it hits page 1 it's old news. Vastly overpriced. Lighten up. | 2008-04-30 | |
| DON'T BUY | 183.270 | Robert Floyd | Was very overbought. Won a terrific contract with the Chinese pushing the spot up quite spectacularly. Would not purchase at this time but let it correct back down, probably the $160 area. | 2008-04-29 | |
| DON'T BUY | 195.600 | John Zechner | If the US$ bottomed and held firm, he thinks these stocks would roll over. He thinks the stock has run too hard and he has sold his holdings. On the longer-term basis, it won't be a bad place to be. | 2008-04-28 | |
| BUY | 210.400 | Duncan Stewart | Fertilizer plays are the way he would go to play the Asian agricultural sector. Potash currently has spot prices of $1000 plus per ton. This will not be sustainable but it looks like prices are going up. | 2008-04-25 | |
| PARTIAL SELL | 206.500 | David Driscoll | Has a hard time justifying the stock price. Long-term growth rate has been about 14% and he gave them at 25 multiple and still couldn't reach their price. If you own, consider carrying back and rebalancing your portfolio. | 2008-04-23 | |
| PARTIAL SELL | 215.300 | David Baskin | The price of potash is rising on demand from Asia. Stock has gone up 210%. If you own, you should consider taking some money off the table. He would suggest selling a third. There has been such a relentless ride on the stock he would not add or buy at this price. Inevitably there will be a 10% or 15% pullback and that would be the time to add. | 2008-04-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | 211.100 | Ravi Sood | Fundamentals for this company are spectacular, earnings momentum is going to be great and the whole agricultural sector is going to be a hot one for many years. Multiples are very high on this one. Will be reporting earnings very soon and there could be some selling off on the news. Look for a period when the market is weak or the stock gives up a lot based on news. | 2008-04-21 | |
| Comment | 205.700 | David Burrows | If you own, he would recommend following it up with a trailing stop. You could consider taking some of your profits, perhaps one third. Doesn't think this will be straight higher but that there will be corrections. | 2008-04-18 | |
| Comment | 196.880 | Gordon Higgins, CA, MBA, CFA | Trading at 20X earnings. Has a great operation, but people are buying it on the basis that potash prices are going to keep rising. They just put out 1 million tons to China at a fixed price for a year so you are looking at a year before there is any significant price increase. | 2008-04-17 | |
| PARTIAL SELL | 188.150 | Michael Sprung | If you own, now would be a good time to start taking some profits. They earned around $3.50 last year and the projections for the next year are up around the $6 level. Based on $185, that is a big multiple. | 2008-04-15 | |
| Comment | 182.690 | Paul Thornton | This is definitely a hot sector. This is a very long-term trend that is still in place. His concern is that the stock has gone up 3 times in the last year and if it sold off, he would have felt badly recommending it. It's a tough play as it could also double from here. If you buy, be ready to get out if it breaks down. | 2008-04-11 | |
| PARTIAL SELL | 181.900 | Norman Levine | (Market Call Minute.) Has had a huge run and the outlook for the long-term looks good, but in the near term they have gone up too much and you might want to take some profits. | 2008-04-10 | |
| SELL | 181.900 | Paul Gardner, CFA | Trading at around 40X earnings, so he has to shy away from this. It's in a fantastic spot but when something trades at 40X, it is just not sustainable. | 2008-04-10 | |
| STRONG BUY | 162.910 | Ken McCord | Really likes potash. Likes the story and fundamentals and the chart.
Showing great earnings growth here. Constantly exceeding expectations.
| 2008-03-26 | |
| HOLD | 162.910 | Ross Healey | A wonderful company. The fair market value is miles above where the stock is trading right now. Lots of upside potential. It is trading 8 times book value, there is lots of down side risk. | 2008-03-26 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 159.340 | Benj Gallander | Worried about stocks that move up so much. Wouldn’t be buying in at this point. Don’t buy unless you’re a momentum player. Wait for a sell off before you play it. | 2008-03-25 | |
| WEAK BUY | 147.050 | Peter Brieger | Target of $195+ in 3-6 months. Potential drop in commodity prices, they have become trading vehicles, they are financial players. Sold it last week. Would buy more pot ash at $130. | 2008-03-19 | |
| BUY | 158.780 | Peter Brieger | We are heading into a long-term food crisis. Secondly, there is maximization of fields that have already been planted. Also inventories of grains are at an all-time low level. | 2008-02-28 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 158.780 | Bruce Campbell | Thinks the agricultural play still continues. Had a pullback in January with the market and this could happen again. That would be the time to buy. | 2008-02-28 | |
| BUY | 149.350 | David Burrows | One of the core themes he is invested in is agriculture. There is very good visibility in earnings, nicely rising estimates and global demand. On the negative side, they have become more volatile recently. | 2008-02-15 | |
| BUY | 139.930 | Peter Brieger | Farmland planting is increasing but not very much so they have to get more yield per acre and demand for fertilizer nutrients increases. He has taken a package of 3 Agrium (AGU-T), Mosaic (MOS-N) and Potash (POT-T). Potash has the greatest potential for gain. | 2008-02-06 | |
| BUY | 141.950 | Brendan Caldwell | Likes this one very much. As a price momentum investor, this is probably the best momentum story that he has ever seen. | 2008-02-01 | |
| BUY | 140.200 | David Burrows | Likes companies that are trading within 10%/15% of their all-time highs. In a business where the fundamentals are improving or accelerating, very often they look expensive, but it is really that the earnings estimates coming from the analysts are too low. Use a trailing stop; ratchet it up behind as the share price goes up. | 2008-01-28 | |
| BUY | 133.980 | Gordon Higgins, CA, MBA, CFA | Trades around 19X earnings. It is the dominant player. Currently negotiating the prices with the Chinese. They have 75% of the excess capacity in the industry, worldwide. Solid company. Long life reserves. | 2008-01-25 | |
| Comment | 125.500 | David Burrows | (Market Call Minute.) Likes the agricultural stocks. They will be volatile. | 2008-01-18 | |
| SELL | 138.000 | Don Vialoux | Seasonality, fertilizer stocks go up from the end of June to the end of December and then tend to go lower. Consider taking some profits. The MACD is just starting to roll over. Wait before June before buying. | 2008-01-16 | |
| DON'T BUY | 139.070 | Bill Carrigan | Both Agrium (AGU-T) and Potash (POT-T) show spikes. There is a lot of overcrowding in these stocks. They have had quite a run and they need a break. | 2008-01-09 | |
| DON'T BUY | 138.320 | Michael Sprung | (Market Call Minute.) Very expensive. Would look at some of the agricultural ETF’s instead. | 2008-01-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | 142.990 | Andrew Guy, CFA | Seasonally this is a great time to Buy this one. Farmers are optimistic at this time of year and the company benefits from that. Trading at 23X earnings while historically was 10X or 12X, so it’s extremely expensive and you have to assume China will continue to grow as rapidly for a very significant period. Too expensive. | 2007-12-27 | |
| TOP PICK | 126.990 | Glenn Paradis, BA, CFA | Has been working his portfolio around the agricultural sector and sees it working out in 2008. Out of the fertilizer business, this company is the best positioned. Has about a 50% lower inventory level then the 10-year average. Not a lot of new supply coming around. Developing countries are more and more in need of fertilizer. | 2007-12-17 | |
| HOLD | 129.000 | Alex Ruus | This is a great sector to be in right now, but the stocks have had great runs and do not look cheap at all. Would have a hard time stepping up to buy it here. | 2007-12-13 | |
| HOLD | 129.300 | Robert Floyd | (Market Call Minute.) Would hold, but would be tempted to take a little off the table. Analysts’ targets are at $150. | 2007-12-11 | |
| BUY | 106.520 | Peter Brieger | Loves fertilizer stocks. Clearly what will drive the demand for fertilizer stocks is the long-term growth of protein-based diets in the emerging markets. | 2007-11-26 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 106.350 | Bruce Campbell | In fertilizer, it is the senior by far and the one you can always buy so always has tremendous valuations. 25X forward earnings and his alternative (See Top Picks) is 16X. Likes fertilizer and this stock and is a play that is there for 2 or 3 years. Buy under $100. | 2007-11-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | 113.150 | Robert Floyd | A fertilizer play. A lot of these stocks have done really well. Feel these stocks are a little too expensive. | 2007-11-14 | |
| DON'T BUY | 113.150 | Cameron Webster | Compared to Agrium (AGU-T) the valuation is pretty hard to understand. Would be wary of it at these levels. Highly volatile. Stronger Cdn$ is going to hurt growth. Consider taking profits if you own. | 2007-11-14 | |
| HOLD | 112.380 | Peter Brieger | If it gets to $115 to $120 he would be inclined to peel back. | 2007-11-06 | |
| WEAK BUY | 112.590 | Steve Carlin | Earnings have sky rocketed. The stock is off today because the announced earnings number is a little light. One of the issues was a higher tax rate. Fundamentals still look good. Earnings growth is still in place. | 2007-10-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | 109.390 | Brian Acker, CA | His model price is $61. Overpriced by a tune of 45%. | 2007-10-10 | |
| Comment | 111.000 | Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI | An exceptional uptrend. Usually the issue is whether you are a short or long-term investor. For short-term, and you have a narrow window with prices being more sensitive, you might want to wait until it comes back to the trend line. For long-term investors were indicators are good, you probably can't go to wrong. The MACD looks like it is trying to register a signal, but hasn't quite completely crossed it. | 2007-10-09 | |
| Comment | 103.190 | Ross Healey | Has had a spectacular run. His Fair Market Value is $128 as he measures it and this amount is also a major technical peak, which would be very difficult to get through at 8X Book. Very profitable company and fast Balance Sheet growth. Expensive. | 2007-10-05 | |
| BUY | 103.340 | David Burrows | Had a very good run, but would still buy it. Agriculture is a space you should focus on. The leader in this group globally. Very good growth profile. Under owned globally. | 2007-10-04 | |
| BUY | 107.340 | Norman Levine | Anyone associated with agricultural products, with the price of grain going through the roof, continues to be very strong. Looks like it is going to continue to do well. | 2007-10-02 | |
| Comment | 102.570 | Peter Brieger | Growth of wealth in the Far East and other emerging nations has caused a change in dietary habits. Fertilizer companies will be very much in the fore going forward. This one is very much more expensive than Agrium (AGU-T). | 2007-09-25 | |
| BUY | 100.780 | Michael Smedley | Expects it will stay strong. The grain cycle is still in, but watch it carefully. The ethanol industry is helping us here. | 2007-09-24 | |
| BUY | 93.740 | David Burrows | One of the core leadership spaces in the market. Pricing power/ rising demand. Global demand. Like stock/space. Been a steady performer. You’d do well to have space in agriculture. | 2007-09-19 | |
| SELL | 93.110 | John Zechner | Good long-term story with the increased use of potash for fertilizers. There is an increased growth story on agriculture in developing countries. They are more expensive than they have been in the past and there could be a pullback. Would take some money | 2007-09-12 | |
| HOLD | 88.430 | Peter Brieger | Has a multiple of 25 plus, which is lower than some others in the agricultural area. | 2007-08-28 | |
| DON'T BUY | 89.530 | David Baskin | More expensive than Agrium (AGU-T) on a price to earnings basis. Would probably prefer Agrium but feel that both are too expensive right now. | 2007-08-23 | |
| BUY | 83.620 | Bill Carrigan | This stock never seriously broke down. Right now it is at its support level. The MACD shows a bit of divergence, which he would call a positive one. | 2007-08-20 | |
| BUY | 93.250 | Gavin Graham | This is a play on the ethanol boom. It will make you loads of money. | 2007-08-08 | |
| BUY | 89.920 | Peter Brieger | A 3 to 5 year cycle story. Related to increased demand for food from emerging markets. All fertilizer stocks in general are attractive. | 2007-08-03 | |
| SELL | 88.330 | Laura Wallace | Cyclical and trading at 30 X earnings, which is way too high at this stage of the cycle. Likes the agricultural cycle. Would take profits here. | 2007-08-02 | |
| DON'T BUY | 86.710 | Bill Carrigan | If you put a momentum indicator on the chart, you would see a lower high. It's near its old high, but some of the indicators are rolling over. This is a negative diversion and he would be very careful of it. If you own, don't let it violate the trend line. | 2007-07-30 | |
| DON'T BUY | 82.500 | Brian Acker, CA | Model price is $54.86, and negative differential of 34%. | 2007-07-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | 82.000 | Ian Nakamoto | If you believe in the agricultural sector this would be one to own. Prefers Agrium (AGU-T). | 2007-07-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | 89.490 | David Baskin | Because of the ethanol situation, the number of acres of corn being planted in the US will be at a record high. They all need fertilizer. This is why this stock has tripled. Would not buy at this price. | 2007-07-17 | |
| Comment | 87.620 | Michael Sprung | Earnings prospects are going up from $1.70 last year to $2.90/$3.00 this year and maybe even in the mid-$3’s next year. Everything is going very well for a lot of the fertilizer companies. BV is around $13. Just got a big contract. On a multiple basis Agrium (AGU-T) is a lot cheaper, so he prefers Agrium. | 2007-07-13 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 84.000 | Bruce Campbell | The big fertilizer “ go to” name. A little uncomfortable as to where it's gotten to. Outlook on fertilizer still looks pretty good through next year. Try to buy on weakness. Prefers Agrium (AGU-T). | 2007-07-09 | |
| BUY | 83.280 | Peter Brieger | Likes it. It's more expensive compared to others in it's sector, but it is actually worth it.
| 2007-06-29 | |
| DON'T BUY | 81.470 | Paul Harris, CFA | Well run company. Very high multiple for a company that is in a commodity type business. Competition is coming in Brazil. | 2007-06-28 | |
| DON'T BUY | 85.360 | David Baskin | Tremendous run-up based on everybody knowing the demand for agriculture products of all kinds is exploding because of need for ethanol. Very expensive. | 2007-06-19 | |
| DON'T BUY | 76.220 | Norman Levine | Has been in the sweet spot as plantings have been very strong. Has had a humongous run and is no bargain anymore. Due for a correction. | 2007-05-30 | |
| DON'T BUY | 73.510 | Michael Sprung | With fertilizer companies, the spring is typically the time you would be selling, not buying. Demand for fertilizer has been explosive in the last while. Too expensive. | 2007-05-28 | |
| DON'T BUY | 70.530 | Brian Acker, CA | His model price of $39 is substantially below the current price. | 2007-05-24 | |
| TOP PICK | 74.120 | Gavin Graham | Are increasing production. Compition in States use gas, which is more expensive. | 2007-05-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | 74.850 | Norman Levine | Very expensive. There have been some big run-ups in the agricultural sector. Plantings are starting to come off and maybe you have seen the best for this stock. | 2007-05-18 | |
| BUY | 220.940 | David Burrows | Everyone is expecting a May selloff. He doesn't see it happening. Potash is in the right spot right now. If you like agricultural products, the fact that it's been stronger then expected should tell you something. | 2007-05-16 | |
| HOLD | 201.400 | Peter Brieger | Cream of the crop. If you own it hold it. (3 to 5 years). Wouldn't buy now. | 2007-05-02 | |
| DON'T BUY | 207.350 | Michael Sprung | Demand for fertilizer is being pulled from everywhere. Priced too high for him at this time. | 2007-04-27 | |
| SELL | 208.450 | John Zechner | Overvalued. Can’t see much upside in fertilizer in the short term. | 2007-04-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | 201.080 | Brian Acker, CA | Has always been way too expensive. He has a model price of $118.43, a negative 40% differential. Does own Agrium (AGU-T). | 2007-04-12 | |
| SELL | 201.080 | Paul Harris, CFA | Very well run. Expect their cost structure will probably go up over the next little while. Expect they will start getting competition for Argentina and Brazil. | 2007-04-12 | |
| PARTIAL SELL | 184.760 | John Zechner | Pretty fully valued at this point. Agricultural commodities have had a pretty strong lift. If you own, consider taking a little bit of money off the table. | 2007-04-02 | |
| BUY | 181.500 | Ian Nakamoto | Generally quite bullish on the Outlook for fertilizer stocks. US government is set to issue a report on the amount of corn needed to be planted. | 2007-03-29 | |
| BUY | 184.730 | Gavin Graham | Not particularly expensive. Natural gas not needed to produce potash. Long life reserves. . | 2007-03-26 | |
| Comment | 183.190 | David Baskin | There are going to be more acres of agricultural land in the US in 2008 for ethanol purposes. This will require a lot of fertilizer. This is the reason the stock is up. | 2007-03-14 | |
| Comment | 181.900 | Brendan Caldwell | This is a stock that just doesn't seem to want to quit. If you have long view, you can buy on weakness. There won't be a decrease in need for fertilizer globally. | 2007-02-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | 192.200 | Michael Smedley | Finds it a bit difficult to be buying it, because it is being pushed somewhat by this strange ethanol and “ need to fertilize more land” subject. | 2007-02-22 | |
| BUY | 188.260 | Peter Brieger | Soybeans and corn are going to be in huge demand because of the growth of ethanol. This is early days in the agricultural cycle. An excellent play. | 2007-02-19 | |
| HOLD | 188.860 | Bill Carrigan | Formed a long base last summer and then broke out in August. Basically, you want to buy them in the breakout. Looks like a huge elevated base that is rising since November. Expecting it to go much higher. | 2007-02-01 | |
| HOLD | 186.280 | Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI | Strong uptrend. Hang on until the charts show otherwise. | 2007-01-30 | |
| DON'T BUY | 186.280 | Peter Gibson | This goes back to the emerging economy story. India and China have a third of the world's population so there should be a great future for fertilizers. However, after the big move on the stock price, the ROE has started to weaken a bit. | 2007-01-30 | |
| Comment | 163.210 | John Zechner | Looking expensive at 27 X earnings. If he was going to be anywhere in commodities, it would be in agricultural. Prefers potash fertilizer over nitrogen fertilizer such as with Agrium (AGU-T). | 2007-01-22 | |
| BUY | 161.890 | David Burrows | There is very strong pricing in fertilizer. Most analysts have been raising their expectations on this company. Expect this trend will continue even in a slow economy. | 2007-01-08 | |
| Comment | 168.970 | Gavin Graham | Likes it a lot, but it has gone up a lot. Good play on the Chinese demand for food. | 2006-12-28 | |
| DON'T BUY | 160.920 | Brian Acker, CA | Has always been overvalued to him. His model price is $103 which is a negative 36% differential. | 2006-12-21 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 161.520 | Gavin Graham | (A Top Pick Sept 6/05. Up 51%.) This was a seasonal play. Longer term, one of the commodities that’s going to be in short supply is food and this is not a bad place to be. | 2006-12-07 | |
| BUY | 160.370 | Bill Belovay | The only Canadian potash producer and they have very good asset. Demand from China will be strong. | 2006-11-29 | |
| DON'T BUY | 159.980 | Stephen Carlin | Was a beneficiary of a flooding of a potash mine in Eastern Europe, which took out about 2.5% of the global capacity. Potash prices are expected to skyrocket in 2007 and into 2008. Could possibly get to $9 in earnings in 2008. Took profits and exited. | 2006-11-08 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 156.800 | Ian Nakamoto | Thinks it will pause here for a while. Likes the company. The whole agricultural area looks great. Longer term it should do quite well. | 2006-11-07 | |
| HOLD | 151.800 | Peter Gibson | Analysis indicates the price momentum is still upward from here. Good level of profitability and stock is still undervalued. Rate of profit growth is not as strong as he would like. Wouldn't want to bet on it over the next 2 months. | 2006-11-03 | |
| DON'T BUY | 135.570 | Chris Smith | This company has a scarcity value attached to it. Returning pretty reasonable results. Feels a little momentuming to him, because of the speed with which it took off. | 2006-10-25 | |
Experts that have talked about Potash Corp of Saskatchewan
