STOCKCHASE

One of the mega pharmas that is having trouble getting traction because it is so large. They have a problem with one of their large drugs (25% of business) coming off patent within the next year. He would look elsewhere. J&J, Abbot, are better picks.

2010-02-17

TOP PICK

18.620

Model price of $29.40, a 53% positive differential.

2010-02-03

HOLD

18.620

Don Vialoux

Just reported lower-than-expected earnings. Chart shows a strong upward trend so technically it still looks good. Usually healthcare stocks do very well from July to October.

2010-02-03

PAST TOP PICK

18.630

(A Top Pick Jan 27/09. Up 25.12%.) Likes the outlook for drug stocks. Still a Buy.

2010-01-28

BUY

19.380

Jeff Black

Have their challenges with patent expiries but a huge global player with very good exposure to emerging markets. Reasonable dividend. 3.7% yield.

2010-01-14

DON'T BUY

19.210

Loss of their Lipitor patent in 2011 (25% of revenues) is priced into the stock but this is a problem with all Pharma plays. Patent expirations is hugely punitive. (See Top Picks.)

2010-01-13

PAST TOP PICK

18.580

(A Top Pick Jan 27/09. Up 17.5%.) The world hated pharmaceutical stocks but started to like them more. All the major pharmas have patents coming off in the next 5 years. This is already built into the price. Companies have all built up big cash reserves.

2009-12-23

BUY

18.290

Ara Nalbandian

Biovail is the only Canadian equivalent. He likes the industry. Concern as patents expire. Market has valued this concern into the price. Continue to generate cash flow. Prefers Merck.

2009-12-15

TOP PICK

17.940

US healthcare stocks were ignored until recently. Recently completed its acquisition of Wyeth, which gives them a new product pipeline. 3.7% yield.

2009-11-16

DON'T BUY

16.960

The issue here is Lipitor patents coming off in 2010 and they have to fill the product pipeline with something that is going to be a blockbuster. Question that they can use their cash horde effectively to fill the R&D pipeline, get new products to market and get their profits up. (See Top Picks.)

2009-11-06

BUY

16.930

Stan Wong

About the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and is continuing to climb. 3.7% dividend and they are due for an increase.

2009-11-04

DON'T BUY

17.260

Big pharmaceutical has 3 major problems. 1) Cost of developing new drugs keeps going up and up. 2) When you do find a new drug there are chances of killing/harming people accidentally. 3) When you do find a new drug that works, the generics come after you.

2009-10-27

SELL

17.560

Benj Gallander

(Market Call Minute) Interesting play. They’ve just done a huge deal. Corporations that do huge take-overs usually take a while to swallow the company.

2009-10-22

WATCH

17.660

Christine Poole

A lot of their drugs were coming off patent, which is why they bought Wyeth, which has a strong portfolio of women's healthcare. With this acquisition closing, she would expect a lot of integration savings and cutting of costs. She would like more detail on this.

2009-10-15

BUY

16.780

Although they have drugs coming off patent over the next few years, they are acquiring wyeth and they have some promising new drugs.

2009-10-13

TOP PICK

16.700

Colin Stewart

Pharmaceutical industry has been very much out of favour. Likes the long-term play in pharmaceuticals with the aging population and demographics. Recently bought Wyeth (WYE-N) and expecting a lot of synergies from this. Trades at 8.5X earnings with almost 4% dividends.

2009-10-08

BUY

16.250

Good performer in the last 6 to 7 months. Decent yield. Problem with all major pharma stocks are the products coming off patent requiring new avenues for growth. Acquired Wyeth (WYE-N), which has fewer drugs coming off patent and more coming on line. (Also owns Teva for their generic drugs.)

2009-09-11

DON'T BUY

16.340

Peter Brieger

This will depend on what the US president comes up with on a healthcare plan. Until that is resolved all the drug stocks will be under pressure.

2009-09-10

DON'T BUY

16.390

Andrew Guy, CFA

Largest drug company globally. Very strong number of products but along with most of the big pharmaceutical companies there are a large number of drugs that come off patent. About 25% of their earnings comes from one drug, Lipitor and when it comes off patent it will have a big effect on their earnings. There are better places to be.

2009-09-04

DON'T BUY

16.800

Karl Berger

This is not the one to bet on in this sector. Very cheap, up for a reason. Drug pipeline is not impressive. Have patent issues. (See Top Picks.)

2009-08-25

Comment

16.370

Ara Nalbandian

Recently started buying through selling Put options, which would require him to Buy (e.g. at $16). Tide is turning on the sector and he likes it very much. Risks are healthcare reform and patent expirations.

2009-08-19

DON'T BUY

16.620

There will continue to be pressure on prices. Also US government is litigation friendly, which can hit them with 1) injury related suits and 2) patent infringement.

2009-07-27

HOLD

14.590

Gavin Graham

Reflects all the bad news that Lipitor will be going going off patent in a couple of years and its drug pipeline is absolutely barren. In the meantime you get paid 6.5%. Pretty cheap.

2009-07-07

TOP PICK

14.570

Kevin O'Leary

Thinks the pharmaceutical sector will start to do quite well in the next 2 years. It is so negative now in terms of what the government wants to do but historically they have never been able to cut the price of drugs. You are getting 5% to wait.

2009-07-06

DON'T BUY

14.760

Charles Lannon

Not a fan of big cap pharma and hasn't been for some time. One of the most difficult business models to operate. Regulatory issues are so difficult to overcome between patent expiries and increasingly stringent health regulations and registration processes. (See Top Picks.)

2009-06-12

SELL

14.640

Matthew McCall

The major pharmaceuticals are not on his top list. Bioteches are where you are going to see innovations. They are the ones coming out with the new drugs and have a better pipeline.

2009-06-04

DON'T BUY

13.910

Just doesn't seem to be up to right itself. Spinning off a lot of cash but its size limits it from growing.

2009-05-06

DON'T BUY

13.340

Getting killed by generics. They get sued when they hurt people. Government won't stand up for them when generics can provide health care at a fraction of the price. Prefer TEVA-O

2009-04-14

DON'T BUY

13.620

Brett Hryb

Has been a difficult stock. Could improve from here however there will be other opportunities in this space you could get more juice from.

2009-03-31

PAST TOP PICK

13.700

(A Top Pick April 10/08. Down 27.8%.) Paired with Teva (TEVA-Q) as his generic company. Down a little because of their intention to purchase Wyath. Cut their dividend but still gives a healthy yield. Good defensive place.

2009-03-30

BUY

14.380

Paul Harris, CFA

Made a good acquisition of Wyeth. Have created value in previous acquisitions. Cut the dividend while making the deal so the stock price fell. This made a lot of sense. The big issue is whether this will fill a hole in their product line. Reasonable dividend and very good balance sheet.

2009-03-26

DON'T BUY

14.250

David Abella

A former glory growth stock. A lot of healthcare products and there is the issue of aging in America but that is offset by many of their expensive premier drugs going generic. Just cut their dividends. Would prefer other pharmaceutical stocks.

2009-03-18

PAST TOP PICK

13.590

(A Top Pick Feb 27/08. Down 40%.)

2009-02-24

DON'T BUY

14.580

Gavin Graham

Cut the dividend in order to preserve cash to make acquisitions even though their balance sheets is fortress like. Lipitor is coming off patent in a couple of years. Stock has been very disappointing. A "show me" stock.

2009-02-13

HOLD

14.710

Brett Hryb

(Market Call Minute.) Just completing an acquisition.

2009-02-09

HOLD

14.840

At this price it is probably near a low. Made a big acquisition that is scaring everybody. Can't see a lot of downside from here.

2009-02-06

SELL

14.580

Made a huge bet with their acquisition of Wyeth and the patents are running off. If it doesn't work out they are going to have some very difficult times.

2009-01-30

TOP PICK

15.820

(A Top Pick Jan 7/08. Down 28,2%.) Likes it for its valuation and its recent acquisition of Wyeth, which gets them into biotechnology and vaccines. Cheap on an earnings basis. Over 4% dividend. In a recession, drug stocks do relatively well. Stock has been oversold.

2009-01-27

BUY

17.750

Currently, pharmaceutical stocks are outperforming the market. A good place to hide and to make some money. Yield of 7.2%. Lots of cash.

2008-12-30

TOP PICK

17.360

His model price is $24.87, a 50% upside. $24 billion in cash.

2008-12-16

SELL

16.630

Matthew McCall

Get Out! Sell. Not a fan of pharmaceuticals. Feels innovations will be in biotechnology not pharmaceuticals.

2008-12-15

VAGUE

16.470

Alan Kral , CFA, CIC

Manufactures of the drug lipidore (the most popular cholesterol drug) Their patent is running out in 2011 - 2012 and they are considering walking away and getting into cancer drugs.

2008-12-09

DON'T BUY

15.280

David Burrows

Health care space, specifically drugs and bio pharmaceuticals is interesting but this is not one that he would Buy. Continue to have issues with drugs coming off of patents and relatively low revenue growth. Would prefer something like Gilead Sciences (GILD-Q) or a generic like Teva (TEVA-Q). This is an area where you should have some exposure.

2008-12-01

Comment

16.280

High dividend yield. Cheap because people think there is not much in the pipeline. Lipitor will be going off patent so earnings will drop. Almost like a short-term bond in that you get cash flow from existing drugs that are pretty dependable but not much growth. Sold his holdings about 2 years ago because of lack of growth. Relatively safe but not a lot of upside.

2008-11-14

DON'T BUY

15.830

Have a lot of cash and produce a lot of cash flow. Very high dividend. They cannot seem to get any catalyst for growth. A lot of competition from generic drug companies.

2008-11-12

HOLD

16.740

David Abella

Losing Lipitor in a couple of years but thinks this is priced into the stock. They are doing cost cutting. Pipeline is a little weak. From a historic PE level and dividend it is a very attractive value. However, if the US is to regulate more and put price fixing on drugs, that would definitely be a negative.

2008-10-22

BUY

17.650

Interesting sock. Almost like a bond. Price assumes there will be no significant new drugs so revenue is based on existing drugs until they come off patent. No phase 2 drugs have hit over the last 2 years.

2008-10-07

DON'T BUY

17.810

Drugs are coming off patent and are they going to be able to replenish the pipeline? Does management have the ability to keep the cash flow chugging along? The market is telling you No. 7% yield but that there is very little else.

2008-09-16

TOP PICK

18.390

Value manager’s dream but never has done anything. He has a model price of $30.26. 66% positive differential.

2008-09-11

DON'T BUY

19.200

Ron Meisels

Trendline and 200-day moving average have been moving down. It has not made a base.

2008-09-03

DON'T BUY

19.080

Owned it about a year ago with a theory that their drugs were worth what the stock price was going at hand you would make money on all the new drugs they developed. The problem is, they haven't developed any new drugs in almost 3 years. Would prefer Merck (MRK-N).

2008-08-27

BUY

19.750

Paul Larson

Worth considering at this price. Very cheap. Double-digit free cash flow yield and very attractive dividend yield. Lipitor will be coming off patent and pipeline of new drugs is relatively thin. Will be lucky to have 0% growth over the next 5 years but over the very long term they will get the pipeline filled.

2008-08-22

DON'T BUY

19.370

David Burrows

Pharmaceutical group is behaving better. This one is less attractive and is facing drugs coming off patent. Prefers others.

2008-08-21

TOP PICK

19.430

Earnings where fantastic. Yield of 6.6%.

2008-08-06

Comment

18.260

Peter Brieger

At an interesting Buy point but not sure he would buy it currently. On his Watch list.

2008-07-16

SELL

17.810

David Burrows

(Market Call Minute.) Broken stock and he can't see what is going to turn it around.

2008-07-11

HOLD

18.030

Laura Wallace

All of the big pharma have been very disappointing. Now yielding over 7% but doesn't think the dividend is in jeopardy as the cash flow is amazingly strong. Won't be a great investment for another year or so.

2008-07-10

DON'T BUY

17.750

Benj Gallander

Not cheap enough for him yet. He would have to go over the financial statements. There are a lot of companies in this area that may be of interest in the next few years.

2008-07-04

TOP PICK

17.550

Model price has been decreasing over the last 9 months, but not all that much. Thinks it will go down to $15.75 but he sees in setting up as a huge rally in healthcare related stocks in Q4 or Q1 of 09. Has an 86% positive differential.

2008-06-11

DON'T BUY

17.940

Pharmaceutical industry in the US has been a disappointment for 2 or 3 years. There is concern about the new drug pipeline. Also a large number of blockbuster drugs are coming off patent for many companies. Also increased competition from generic companies. At 7.2%, the market is telling you it does not believe the dividend is safe.

2008-06-10

DON'T BUY

18.020

Its problem, along with many of the health care companies in the US, is the pipeline. Lipitor, which is a large portion of their revenues, comes off patent next year. Have lots of cash flow but haven't been able to take advantage to develop anything. Would buy Novo-Nordisk (NVO-N) instead.

2008-06-09

DON'T BUY

18.670

Ross Healy

From his perspective, it has absolutely technically broken down. Looks like almost everything is going against it. Also, it is likely Democrats will come to power and won't be helpful to the drug companies.

2008-06-05

SELL

19.010

Duncan Stewart

6.73% dividend. Doesn't see a lot of prospects in their pipeline. Some of their big money makers are in a lot of jeopardy from competition. If you like pharmaceuticals, consider moving into Johnson & Johnson (JNJ-N).

2008-06-03

SELL

19.180

David Garrity

Product portfolio continues to undergo greater competition from generics. New products are declining. Still haven't turned the corner. Generics such as Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA-Q) would be more attractive.

2008-06-02

DON'T BUY

20.010

Candidates in the presidential race have not been positive on pharmaceutical companies. The problem with this company however is the lack of a pipeline. Most of the earnings are coming from some products that are going to go off patent in the next couple of years. Has become more and more expensive to generate new drugs. The dividend could be a potential trap and could be lowered.

2008-05-21

HOLD

20.080

John O'Connell, CFA

6.5% dividend yield. Cash flows are very strong.

2008-05-15

DON'T BUY

20.060

Recently sold his holdings. A lot of their pipeline is going into generic distribution, which will take a lot of revenue off the top line. Feels the 6% dividend is probably safe.

2008-05-14

PAST TOP PICK

19.910

(A Top Pick May 18/07. Down 23%.) Have not proven to be defensive. Most of the major drug companies have more of their larger drugs coming off patent shortly. At this point, downside risk looks pretty limited. 6% plus yield. A Hold.

2008-05-12

PAST TOP PICK

19.970

(A Top Pick May 2/07. Down 20%.) Still in his Top 10. His model price is $34.72, a 74% positive differential.

2008-05-08

DON'T BUY

20.430

Duncan Stewart

The trouble he has with the big pharmaceuticals is that they are having a terribly hard time reinventing themselves. They all have good yields. The FDA right now is turning the taps off. It is harder and harder to get approval. Would be very cautious on this sector. The one exception is Johnson & Johnson (JNJ-N), which seems to have a better approach than their peers.

2008-04-25

BUY

19.880

Laura Wallace

This has not been a good experience over the last year. Stock has come off pretty sharply. All of the drugs are coming off patent for the big pharmaceuticals. Trading at under 10X earnings and is still earning 35% on its equity and yielding over 6%.

2008-04-23

DON'T BUY

20.710

Alan Kral , CFA, CIC

US pharmaceutical sector is under tremendous pressure. Starting to see a run off in many of the product portfolios and a wind down of patent protection. With the potential change of government he expects the whole sector will be under pressure.

2008-04-15

TOP PICK

20.920

Good stock to own in a bad market. 6% yield. $25 billion in cash. The bad news is known including some of the big drugs coming off of patent and the lull before some of their late stage pipe line starts to kick in.

2008-04-10

DON'T BUY

21.480

Pat Naccarato

This is a difficult one for a value investor. The stock is down quite a bit and has a great balance sheet with a lot of cash. However, this could be a value trap. Looking forward, this company is going to be losing a lot of its primary drugs. Also, there is an election coming up and the rules may change on drug pricing.

2008-04-07

HOLD

20.780

Benj Gallander

Dividend over 6%. Would hold for the dividend. Wouldn’t buy.

2008-03-25

HOLD

20.570

They’ve got lots of cash, therefore their dividend is safe. Not sure if they are going to be able to build their business to have significant growth.

2008-03-17

BUY

21.590

Gavin Graham

Pretty cheap. Has been a dog over the last year but you are getting a 5.5% dividend. PE is 11X’s. Their patent on the Lipitor drug expires, but not for another 12 years. Cash flow from this is about 40% of their profit and they are moving into other new drugs. If the Democrats win, the question is will they get squeezed on Medicare but that is already built into the stock.

2008-03-06

BUY

21.590

John Zechner

Trading at 10X earnings, which is the lowest he has ever seen a US pharmaceutical. They are great beneficiaries of the lower US$. Have a great international business. Have lots of cash for acquisitions.

2008-03-06

BUY

22.250

John O'Connell, CFA

(Market Call Minute.) At this price, you can be a buyer and sell at $26 or so.

2008-03-03

TOP PICK

22.750

He has a model price of $40.10, which is a 76% positive differential. Has up its dividends considerably and has positive earnings revisions.

2008-02-27

DON'T BUY

22.470

Their pipeline has just not produced new drugs. When you buy this stock now, you are getting a series of cash flows on the existing drugs, but a lot of them are coming off patent. Just acquired a company that has a very small drug, which to him, is a sign of desperation.

2008-02-20

DON'T BUY

22.370

This is the worst of times for giant pharmaceutical companies. Now spending more on marketing than they are on research/development. Ongoing huge costs of developing new drugs that are safe are a drag. Also, cost of litigation remains a huge burden. Probably safer with the generic companies.

2008-02-19

BUY

22.200

Has a 2-pronged approach to the drug industry with Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA-Q) as his growth generic company and this one as his value dividend play. It is giving great income until their pipeline improves.

2008-02-11

PAST TOP PICK

22.670

(A Top Pick Feb 1/07. Down 10% including dividends.) This one has been the bane of all value managers. His model price is $37.57, a 66% positive differential. This one needs a catalyst.

2008-02-07

PAST TOP PICK

24.080

David Taylor, MBA, CFA

(A Top Pick Dec 18/06. Down 7.4%.) Got decimated when they lost a lawsuit on Lipitor. Sold his holdings.

2008-01-10

TOP PICK

23.230

This sector does well in a slowing economy. 5.6% yield. Has a war chest of almost $30 million in cash to be used for acquisitions. Share buybacks keep increasing the dividends. Mid/long-term pipeline is very promising. Yield and cash limit downside risk. A lot of potential upside surprises.

2008-01-07

PAST TOP PICK

23.220

(A Past Top Pick Dec 21/06. Down 10.8%.) This one is probably the bane of all the value managers. Even boosted their dividend by 10%. His model price is $40.53, a 74% positive differential. If they could do anything to thin out that balance sheet, it would be a huge positive for the stock.

2007-12-20

DON'T BUY

23.270

He threw in the towel last quarter and sold his holdings. The problem is they just haven't been developing new drugs and as time goes by, you get closer to patent expiration.

2007-12-19

DON'T BUY

23.370

Big questions with drug companies are “How big is their pipeline of drugs and development?” “What’s the patent life of their big drugs?” and “How vulnerable are they to erosion from generics?”.

2007-12-18

Comment

23.810

Pharma as an industry as a model is really at a crossroads. The chemical-based side is giving way to the biology-side of science. They have a lot of money, but do not have a good pipeline. The biology side is just the opposite. They have the largest phase 2 pipeline that they've ever had and that could translate by 2009 into the biggest phase 3. They own some, but are tempted to pull the plug.

2007-12-12

PAST TOP PICK

23.550

(A Past Top Pick. Dec 5/06. Down 4.8%.) 5% yield is why he still likes it. All of the bad news is basically known. Sold their consumer products division for $19 billion and will use the cash for acquisitions, share buybacks, dividend increases and increase research. Recession resistant.

2007-12-03

WAIT

23.760

Pat Naccarato

It has all the value characteristics that he loves. Has a lot of net cash. Very cheap. Concerned about administration changes when the US election occurs and that their biggest selling drug Lipitor is about 30% of their sales.

2007-11-30

PAST TOP PICK

22.720

(A Top Pick Dec 26/06. Down 12.6%.) Still undervalued. Hopefully there’s pressure on management to do something. His model price is $38.27. a 68.5% positive differential.

2007-11-20

TOP PICK

22.720

(All 3 Top Picks are defensive, have good dividends, solid earnings and limited downside.) 5% yield and will probably raise the dividend. About $19 billion cash for acquisitions. Drugs that are coming off patent is already built into the stock.

2007-11-20

PAST TOP PICK

23.950

(A Top Pick Dec 21/06. Down 5.6%.) The model price is $42.64, giving it a 73% positive differential.

2007-11-01

DON'T BUY

23.980

Has taken it's licks. If they prevail on their lawsuits on their patents then they will go up. He likes the generics more then the big R & D houses.

2007-10-23

BUY

24.630

Trading at a very attractive multiple (less then 10X next years earnings), 4.5% dividends. They have a lot of things going on in the pipeline. Must be patient with this though.

2007-10-16

TOP PICK

25.540

His model price is $42.32 a positive 66% differential. Until they read off their goodwill, the stock will probably be in the doghouse for a while.

2007-10-10

BUY

24.190