STOCKCHASE

(Market Call Minute.) Trading at proved reserve value using stripped pricing. Liquids cut is going to be 20% of total production at the end of this year. Trading at about 7.5X next year's cash flow of $3 gas. Very well run. If you are bullish on gas and water vitamin dividend, he would own this one.

2012-05-16

DON'T BUY

18.220

David Burrows

(Market Call Minute.) You have to be very careful with natural gas as prices can continue to go lower.

2012-03-06

BUY on WEAKNESS

18.290

Prakash Hariharan

Great operator. Stock has had a big pullback. Looks interesting at this level. Had some operating issues on account of logistics that happened to the stock earlier. Good buy below $18.

2012-02-28

TOP PICK

20.170

One of the lowest cost producers in the basin. Looking for a 30% growth in production. Fantastic record in creating shareholder value.

2012-01-25

SELL

19.220

(Market Call Minute) Well run company but a Nat gas stock. Payout ratio sustainable.

2012-01-24

HOLD

21.280

Douglas Kee

Great managers and good balance sheet. Primarily in Natural gas. Good finders and low costs. Descent yield. Proven over time they are pretty good at finding the stuff.

2012-01-12

DON'T BUY

24.500

Very well run. Have been growing production much more meaningfully than people thought earlier in the year. The challenge is that there is very little liquids in their gas stream so their netback is around $20, which is pretty skinny but they are the lowest cost operator in Canada. Trading around 10X cash flow and he thinks gas is a bit of a write off here. Expensive.

2011-11-30

PAST TOP PICK

23.730

David Burrows

(A Top Pick Dec 13/10. Up 31.92%.)

2011-11-29

Comment

20.940

Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI

Well-run natural gas stock. Natural gas prices have been extremely weak. Lowest cost operator in Canada. Dividend is well supported. The only negative is that the CEO is not promotional when it comes to selling. Trading at around 8.7X cash flow using $4 gas. Prefers companies with more leverage to oil.

2011-10-13

TOP PICK

18.540

Laura Lau

Gas. At current prices, they not only still make money but also can grow production. Grew 28% last year and expects 25%-30% growth this year. Low payout ratio of about 35%.

2011-02-09

TOP PICK

18.840

David Burrows

A departure for him because it is gassy but is very liquids rich with gas liquids coming out of their production. Have 5 gas plants throughout the deep basin. Will probably grow production by 35% next year. About to convert to a Corp which could become more attractive to common stock investors. 4% yield.

2010-12-13

HOLD

17.300

No reason to Sell. Sentiments a little high and it might come back to the $15 break out level. Not overbought or oversold. Also volume has started to pick up.

2010-11-19

Comment

15.610

Pengrowth Energy (PGF.UN-T) or Peyto Energy Trust (PEY.UN-T)? 9.3% yield, which is to drop to 7% next year. Both are gas weighted but this one has a better set of land and has been demonstrably better in proving up value over time. Prefers Peyto.

2010-07-23

DON'T BUY

12.000

Has benefited from the natural gas trade with the low cost gas producers doing particularly well. Have concerns over the sustainability of distributions. Introducing horizontal drilling into some of their plays, which should help to increase production levels.

2009-11-25

DON'T BUY

9.470

Highly gas levered. The big question is will they be able to maintain their distribution of 14.9%. Natural gas inventories have been building.

2009-09-02

DON'T BUY

9.100

Veronika Hirsch

Not crazy about gas. Would prefer an oilier name or a gas name outside of North America.

2009-07-17

HOLD

8.180

More weighted to natural gas. With natural gas prices hovering around $2.50 it is somewhat problematic for them. Have a very good property in Sundance and this is what you need to stick with in times of volatile commodity prices.

2009-07-13

Comment

9.370

Laura Lau

One of the lowest cost producers. Difficulty past year has been debt so had to do a stock issue. Also growing very quickly and declines were very high but are starting to slow down. Still trying to understand how they will look in 2011. Currently doesn't have balance sheet strength to grow. Could see another 15%-20% decline. Because of hedging, distribution should be safe but it could be cut for their financial stability. This could give a buying opportunity.

2009-06-30

HOLD

9.750

Has one of the longest reserve lives of royalty trusts. Gas weighted so distribution is potentially at risk, especially if he is right and gas prices stay down for 1 or 2 years. No balance sheet issues. Could be acquired.

2009-06-24

PAST TOP PICK

10.320

(A Top Pick June 4/08. Down 38.51%.) Sold this last fall. Major gas play. Have grown their reserves through the drill bit. Possibility of distributions being cut.

2009-06-16

SELL

10.920

Very gas weighted. Originally it was very much of a growth story and people were paying for growth. Their operation is tight gas giving very high initial production rate but very steep declines. Need a lot of capital to fund their growth so are a little bit stretched on the balance sheet. Well hedged through 2009 so we should be able to maintain distributions if gas prices improve. Good quality assets. Consider selling and coming back in at a lower level.

2009-05-22

DON'T BUY

9.400

This is a gas play. Great divergence of opinion on whether this is where you want to be positioned. Could cut the distribution to protect capital. 2-3 years oil and gas have nowhere to go but up.

2009-04-22

DON'T BUY

8.030

Primarily natural gas, which is not his favourite commodity. Concerns about their debt levels.

2009-03-25

BUY

6.680

Jaime Carrasco

(Market Call Minute.) Have a good level of leverage.

2009-03-13

DON'T BUY

9.170

(Market Call Minute.) Her outlook on gas is unfavourable and is going to be quite weak for the rest of 2009. Would prefer and oilier name.

2009-02-03

DON'T BUY

9.080

(Market Call Minute.) Debt levels are too high.

2008-11-20

DON'T BUY

10.560

Yield of about 17.5%, which is telling you that it is somewhat chancy. Despite forecasts of reductions in cash for distribution, it is still running ahead of the $1.80 so there is a bit of a cushion. Thinks there are others that are more attractive.

2008-11-18

BUY

11.400

(Market Call Minute.) 20 years reserve life. Great asset for any oil sands miner looking to have a stable source of natural gas.

2008-10-29

BUY

17.210

Peter Hodson

In terms of gas exposure, distributions and payout ratio is one of the best out there. When they convert into a regular company in 2011, he thinks they will get back on track. 10.6% yield.

2008-08-27

Comment

17.250

Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng.

Mainly a gas producer. Had a dramatic growth rate in the early years. Low debt level. There are other trusts that are more attractive. Not a bad place to be.

2008-07-18

BUY

20.150

Yield is not that great but on the other hand, with the tax pools they have, you are not looking at taxes any time soon.

2008-06-30

TOP PICK

19.870

Natural gas. Have touched only 25% of their undeveloped acreage. Grow reserves from drill bit rather than acquisition. Tax pools probably keep them out of a taxable position until 2014/2015. Looking for distributions to increase. Capital gain will only be 4% or 5% and the rest of it will be distributions.

2008-06-04

Comment

19.460

Remains one of his favourite trusts because they develop their own reserves through the drill bit. Have accumulated massive amounts of land and will be able to keep production up.

2008-05-01

HOLD

16.870

(Market Call Minute.) One of the better names generally, but still not in a sweet spot in terms of a royalty trust.

2008-02-08

Comment

15.500

Very focused on natural gas. Has a wonderful asset in the western basin. In the current natural gas pricing market, many of these trusts are pulling back on new Cap X they are willing to spend.

2008-01-21

HOLD

16.600

He has confidence in the gas story playing out in the longer term. Natural gas did not have a good year last year and this year is a bit better. Yields around 10%. Payout ratio is around 70%.

2008-01-08

SELL

18.840

2007-11-06

DON'T BUY

19.200

Brian Acker, CA

This company does not pass his financial tests, so it is too weak for him to buy.

2007-11-01

HOLD

16.790

Has been hit pretty hard because it is pretty highly levered to natural gas. Have cut back on their capital expenditure programs, which cuts into their production. Well run.

2007-10-03

HOLD

17.030

Patrick Kim

Gas weighted trust and feels you will eventually be rewarded by holding on. Commodities have had a positive run in the last week or so and feel that this will continue.

2007-09-21

Comment

16.880

Even though they have a significant hedging program in place they will be running up against their credit lines in 2008. Have some tremendous properties in the western basin. This would be one of the companies that would benefit higher from natural gas p

2007-09-05

HOLD

17.680

A big constraint is that they are right up against their bank lines. Their assets are fairly high quality.

2007-07-23

HOLD

20.010

One of the more traditional energy trust. They are well placed going into the transition period. Had a good run up, was trading at a discount to actual value. Long term an excellent play. Maybe longer then a 1 year time frame. An excellent hold.

2007-06-11

HOLD

20.670

Should hold for a while longer. It lives within it's means. Will do better in the next half of this year.

2007-06-06

Comment

16.590

A gas weighted name so they have been hit pretty hard. Also hit hard because of high service costs. A good play from a risk/reward perspective. 1st & 2nd quarter may be soft.

2007-03-23

DON'T BUY

16.300

Have a great asset with longer than average reserve life. About 75%-80% natural gas weighted. Have concerns on their debt levels. Haven't much room left on their bank line, so he anticipates an equity issue fairly soon.

2007-03-20

Comment

16.100

Has come down a long way. A lot of the oil/gas companies are now at prices that they have to look attractive.

2007-03-16

HOLD

16.420

Looking for a weaker period in natural gas at this time. This is a good trust, but you might be able to buy it a little cheaper over the next few months. Reserve life index of about 19 years.

2007-03-09

HOLD

17.010

Not one of his favourites. Not the best time to sell. Chart pattern looks like it’s going to go sideways. If there is a bounce in gas prices, which he is anticipating, this could show some reasonable upside. You then might consider switching to something like Arc Energy (AET.UN-T).

2007-02-23

HOLD

17.350

They have been increasingly talking about living within their means and have cut their capital expenditures by 47%. This means it will be harder and harder to see growth.

2007-02-21

HOLD

17.360

Michael Decter

If you've got the stomach for a possible $2 decrease in the next 12 to 18 months, then he would hold. There will be a lot of volatility.

2007-01-18

SELL

17.360

Robert Toole

Has about the highest payout ratio out there. Has reached its growth limit in its asset base.

2007-01-18

HOLD

18.200

Should continue to be able to develop their business in a very profitable way because of their huge land position. Always focused on growing through the drill bit versus acquisitions. A long-time investment. Good management.

2007-01-15

HOLD

17.700

Sandy McIntyre

Has an extremely high quality asset base. Been struggling with above normal decline rates on 3 wells that affected its growth rate. That is behind them and production has stabilized. Valuation is fair. He is negative on gas until the end of Jan-Feb, but becoming very bullish on it for 2008.

2006-12-29

PAST TOP PICK

17.850

(A Top Pick April 26/06. Down 36.1%.) Still likes. Will be one that will easily convert back to a corporation.

2006-12-15

DON'T BUY

18.460

Has owned some very good property, particularly in the Sundance region in Alberta. Will be a tougher go for them to replicate that. They are right up against where they stand on their bank lines. It will be difficult now to raise new equity.

2006-12-01

BUY

17.520

Anything to do with natural gas has been in a bit of a bear market. Starting to recover. Has grown, on a per-unit basis, the greatest over the last 5 years. 70%-80% natural gas. 16 year reserve life index.

2006-11-24

HOLD

17.600

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Getting a decent yield and you have one or two years before there is a big whacking cut. Very long reserve life. Hold, but if you want to sell wait until winter and sell into strength. See how things go.

2006-11-16

DON'T BUY

17.450

James Cole, BA, CFA

If we have a warm winter, gas prices will collapse. Has a great long-term track record. Pound for pound, dollar for dollar, you can get better value in corporations.

2006-11-13

BUY

18.340

Steve Carlin

Tarred with the “income trust” brush and low gas price. Has a low payout ratio, so distributions are less at risk than some others. Good balance sheet.

2006-11-08

DON'T BUY

17.950

Not a favourite. Prefers Suncor (SU-T) which has the right mix of assets.

2006-11-02

BUY

22.050

Gavin Graham

An excellent gas play. Has done a good job of developing their gas plays in the Western sedimentary basin. 7.5% yield. Low distribution ratio.

2006-10-30

BUY

22.400

Natural gas focused. Gas prices have been firming up in the last little while. Long reserve life index. High quality assets. Good value here.

2006-10-27

SELL

22.400

Robert Toole

Undergone a big change. Has been a very steady, growing trust. Got to a point in their asset base where they are unable to continue to grow production/cash distributions. One of the highest payout ratios out there which may have to be adjusted.

2006-10-27

BUY

23.040

Pretty volatile. Have always kept their payout ratio pretty low and rolled the money back into exploration. Relatively low yield, but more potential growth.

2006-10-26

PAST TOP PICK

22.450

(A Top Pick June 2/06. Down 10%%.) Very gas weighted. Has held in versus some of the more levered gas names. Reserve life of about 17 years and a payout ratio of about 50%-60%.

2006-10-20

BUY

19.930

They have a good quality base with the longest reserve life. They pay out 50% of their cash flow. Management has been shaken up but he believes it has provided an opportunity.

2006-09-29

PAST TOP PICK

22.000

(A Top Pick Jun 2/06. Down 7.9%.) Management change so wait before buying and buy on weakness.

2006-09-08

BUY on WEAKNESS

22.000

Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng.

Thinks it will have to continue to spend a lot of money on its production. 100% natural gas, so buy on weakness over the next couple of months. Good performer, but will not do as well as it used to.

2006-09-08

BUY

22.970

Great production increases. Seem to be back in sync again. Yield, at 7.5%, is too low for him. An aggressive company with a lot of drilling prospects and a lot of land. Have been very effective in getting their production up.

2006-08-30

BUY

21.530

Peter Gibson

The smaller energy companies are still putting up some pretty good profit growth. This is not a smaller name but it's in the group that has strong profit growth. Fundamentals look very good. Be prepared to look past any short-term weakness.

2006-08-18

BUY

22.000

Have had another flat quarter and the CEO is stepping down. 5 flat quarters in a row but he feels there is optimism for future growth.

2006-08-14

BUY

22.080

Garth Jestley

Just made a management change. A large player in coal bed methane.

2006-08-11

BUY

24.260

Not sure why it is down relative to others except that its yield is quite low. Fallen below the 200 day moving average and is approaching the 50 day. If gas prices keep on moving up, this one will also.

2006-08-09

BUY

21.870

Ravi Sood

Has been an absolute star in creating shareholder value at the drill bit. A lot of the sell off was because it got ahead of itself. Good level.

2006-07-21

Comment

22.440

Likes the outlook for gas-oriented trusts. This is one of the places he would consider.

2006-07-18

BUY

23.280

Dean Orrico

Has a very high level of confidence in the management team. Very focused. 80/85% natural gas. 60% payout ratio. Reserve life of about 19 years.

2006-06-23

BUY

23.020

A gas weighted trust. Has the longest reserve life so it is quite stable from an asset standpoint. Has dropped because of the draft in natural gas prices. Good value down here. Could have a further drop over the summer.

2006-06-21

DON'T BUY

23.560

Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng.

Has a great asset North West of Edmonton. Well managed. Spends a large amount (270%) of its cash flow on capital expenditures and distributions. Numbers are pretty spectacular. Had a huge growth rate. Companies tend to drill up their best wells 1st, so has not taken a recent position in it.

2006-06-16

TOP PICK

24.920

A gas weighted trust with about an 18 year reserve life. Pulled back because of weaker gas prices. Should grow substantially per unit. Good price.

2006-06-02

DON'T BUY

23.930

About 80% gas focused. With lower gas prices, he is concerned they may have to cut back on some of their capital spending.

2006-06-01

BUY

23.630

In gas weighted income trusts he prefers Progress Energy Trust (PGX.UN-T) or Peyto Energy (PEY.UN-T).

2006-05-18

BUY

24.300

Leslie Lundquist

Has been beaten up. Released a quarter that was a little bit softer then some investors had expected. This gives a good opportunity to get in. Longer-term outlook is still very good.

2006-05-17

HOLD

27.900

Probably fairly valued at current levels. 80% of its production is natural gas. Longer term, it will be a good story.

2006-05-05

SELL

26.600

Greg Guichon

Management disappointed the market. They have a very solid business model, but the model is predicated on them aggressively finding and replacing their reserve.

2006-04-28

BUY on WEAKNESS

28.200

A great royalty trust. Had phenomenal returns. Has the highest reserve life of a conventional royalty trust. Low payout ratio. Gas weighted so during these times of low gas prices, it may trade down to the $25/26 level which would be a good time to pick some up.

2006-04-07

BUY

26.030

One of his top gas-weighted names. Has a very high reserve life index. Anything below $25 is a steal.

2006-03-24

BUY

25.920

The gas exposure that they have has been partially responsible for its pullback. If you are a longer term investor, you should definitely hold. They have excellent properties and good production possibilities going forward.

2006-03-23

HOLD

23.650

Leslie Lundquist

It is an oil and gas producer, heavy gas exposure. In the long term it should do fine. Hold if you own. Buying depends on your personal circumstances. The expert's company is assessing this trust to see if they want to buy or not.

2006-03-04

BUY

24.430

Natural gas focused trust and has suffered a drop in price because of this. Also, their growth profile modified somewhat in 2005.

2006-02-17

BUY

22.680

Ravi Sood

Has been a spectacular success story. Grew through the drill bit. That to such a size that it couldn't sustain the growth. Is now at a good entry point.

2006-02-10

TOP PICK

22.800

Good track record. Gas focus trust at 80% of natural gas production. Since changing to trust in 2003 they have gone from 13,000 b.o.e. per day to 23,000 b.o.e. per day.

2006-02-08

BUY on WEAKNESS

24.420

Bruce Campbell

This is a hybrid trust that only pays out about 40% with a mid-single digit yield, but what you get is better growth. Gas focused. This is one you would want to buy on weakness. A good name.

2006-01-24

WEAK BUY

24.050

Has not been his favourite income trust because he tends to buy his trusts for yield and this one is only around 6%.

2006-01-23

SELL

24.910

Greg Guichon

A low yielding growth trust. Believes the growth rate is slowing down and they sold their holdings.

2006-01-20

BUY

24.800

Has a distribution of around $2. Outside of an RRSP it makes no sense to sell. Would buy this, and any other gas oriented trust. Have run into a production glitch because they have done all the production from zones they know and it will become progressively tougher to go into different formations. Won't be as profitable as it has been in the past.

2006-01-16

BUY

24.560

Patrick Kim

Has been one of the biggest successes in the Royalty Trust sector. They did a fantastic job of growing internally. Had a tremendous growth rate in 2004 so it was normal for a slower pace in 2005. The recent price weakness is an opportunity to buy more.

2006-01-13

BUY

24.990

79% gas production. Long reserve life. A good debt to cash flow position. Has the ability to increase production per unit. Great exploration potential.

2005-12-28

BUY

28.490