STOCKCHASE

An asset rich company. Cash flow should be around $13 or more over the next couple of years. An absolute bargain at this price. Likes that they have deferred the Foothills project.

2008-11-18

PAST TOP PICK

23.950

Ross Healy

(A Top Pick Dec 20/07. Down 49%.) A real surprise to him. Was the cheapest oil and he thought an integrated would have more support. Fort Hills is going to be put on the shelf for a while. Would be inclined to nibble away at this price.

2008-11-17

BUY

25.780

Has been a terrible performing stock. Pinned a lot of their growth strategy on the oil sands and this is uneconomic right now. Long-term, you'll look back and say this was a screaming buying time.

2008-11-11

DON'T BUY

30.140

After disappointing for a while, came through with some nice numbers. Not adding to his holdings at this time.

2008-10-31

HOLD

29.390

Has dropped along with the commodity. Had some production and management issues in the past but even so, a very cheap stock.

2008-10-30

Comment

24.100

Brendan Caldwell

Of the biggest players in the industry, this would be his favourite. Broadly diversified. Very cheap on a cash flow basis. Energy prices may continue to come down.

2008-10-27

Comment

27.800

Bill MacLachlan

Prefers Suncor (SU-T), which is a better operator. Good value at current levels, but thinks Suncor is better.

2008-10-23

HOLD

25.410

This would not be his top pick. Has always been cheap but continues to disappoint. There are better names you could go to.

2008-10-22

DON'T BUY

28.270

Dennis Dasilva

Considers this as a value trap. Always looks cheap on paper but has disappointed from an operational point of view. Would prefer an oil sands play to their Fort Hills project.

2008-10-21

WAIT

31.000

Don Vialoux

Trying to bottom. Very strong seasonal characteristics. Tends to go up in February and down in May every year. Energy sector will do OK in the recovery of the markets but not his favourite sector right now. Wait until the end of January, beginning in February. Energy stocks will do okay but prefers other sectors.

2008-10-20

DON'T BUY

25.740

Jean-Francois Tardif

Doesn't really like this stock. Where other oil stocks have done well, this one has not. Very limited amount of growth.

2008-10-17

TOP PICK

24.870

At current price the multiple is very low, trading at far less than book price. Predominant player. Good blend of everything,

2008-10-16

DON'T BUY

24.870

Peter Brieger

Stories that they may walk away from Fort Hills project, where costs doubled. Would not touch this.

2008-10-16

HOLD

24.920

Laura Wallace

Disappointing company in terms of fundamentals, in terms of delivering on what they promised. It’s a ‘show me’ stock. Suncor is her preference. Cheap on valuation side. Will be volatile.

2008-10-15

STRONG BUY

26.940

Gordon Higgins, CA, MBA, CFA

Can’t believe how cheap it is. It’s always been a value oil play. He would buy it blindly. Maybe they will take out UTS.

2008-10-14

SELL

32.250

Bill MacLachlan

Sleepy money is what you invest in this. Cut their position in the news of the fort hills project and invested in Suncor. They will be out of this stock in the next quarter. The execution is what concerns them.

2008-10-03

BUY

35.400

Great long-term story. Fort hills project responsible for recent decline. Should be more stable than a lot of the exploration companies. Great long-term story.

2008-09-30

DON'T BUY

35.400

There are other places that have better production profiles and better production increases.

2008-09-30

DON'T BUY

36.440

Has been a major disappointment. Now trading at about a 5 times multiple. Incredibly cheap. Production will be down this year. It will go up if there is a major lift in the oil/gas stocks. It will lag the rest of the pack.

2008-09-26

HOLD

37.250

Somewhat attractive at this price. Costs on their oil sands project are escalating dramatically. A great deal of the negative news has already been discounted in the share price.

2008-09-25

Comment

36.720

Michael Decter

Quality company. If you're holding for the long-term you won't do badly with this one. He would prefer Imperial Oil (IMO-T) instead.

2008-09-23

TOP PICK

36.720

Inexpensive company but still very profitable. Feels cash flow is going to be in excess of $10 a share over the next couple of years. Involved in some projects were costs are escalating very high, which contributed to the pullback. These projects will probably be delayed.

2008-09-23

PARTIAL BUY

37.400

Typically disappoints on the production side. Until they can develop and deliver on time and on budget it will be in the penalty box. Trying to turn their refining side around. Have a lot of diverse projects. Can't be taken over by a foreign entity, which eliminates a takeover premium. Feels very comfortable holding at this level and even adding to it.

2008-09-22

BUY

35.780

Ken McCord

Costs are going up in the oil sands for a lot of players. This has impacted them in their Fort Hills project. Comfortable with a little bit of this. Oil seems to be recovering. Consistent and very stable earnings. Likes all the underlying fundamentals.

2008-09-18

DON'T BUY

35.780

Bill Harris, CFA

Company can absolutely detail exactly what they are going to do for the next 2 years. That is not good enough for him. He needs to know what will happen after 2010. Part of the Fort Hills project with UTS (UTS-T). If they were rational, they would not go ahead with this project.

2008-09-18

DON'T BUY

39.670

David Driscoll

Integrated oil company that is going to have look at both upstream and downstream operations. Lower oil price means improved crack spreads. But costs going forward with their other projects could be affected by having to shut in or shut down.

2008-09-16

TOP PICK

40.390

With the fall of the dollar in terms of purchasing power, a lot of the integrated oils never got the up tick in terms of valuation. As oil prices are coming down, the companies have to get their costs under control, which will give them the valuation up tick.

2008-09-11

BUY

42.070

(Market Call Minute.) A great value oil.

2008-09-05

BUY

42.070

This issue exposure right across the board whether it's refining, international exploration or the Canadian basin.

2008-09-05

DON'T BUY

43.920

Short term you are probably going to be at the mercy of the commodity markets. Longer-term, it has a lot going for it. One of the few that have a heavy oil interest off the Fort Hills project. Integrated so has exposure to refinery and marketing. Not expecting huge production increases over the next 2 years.

2008-09-02

Comment

46.100

Joseph Schachter

These companies have a massive amount of cash and they have to reinvest it in the ground. Some of the big companies are buying back shares and paying higher dividends but that is not the solution.

2008-08-26

DON'T BUY

46.100

Shauna Sexsmith

Probably cheapest integrated oil stock in the world. Trading at 5X next year's earnings. Bit of a management discount, a bit of concern over their strategy, Libyan assets and there isn't any meaningful production growth until 2012. You need a lot of patience with this one. Value trap.

2008-08-26

HOLD

46.750

(Market Call Minute.) Company has just demonstrated that they struggle to bring on production and our too down stream weighted.

2008-08-22

BUY

47.930

Based on the pullback on the stock and commodity price, this is a fair entry point. This one is not his favourite.

2008-08-21

STRONG BUY

46.250

Earnings of $3.10 and stock is selling at 4X earnings. Cash flow should be in excess of $12 over the next couple of years. Dividends were increased 54%. As an integrated they have been hurt over the last 6 months in their refining and retail operations. Valuation is compelling.

2008-08-14

TOP PICK

47.240

Hugely undervalued. His model price is $89.85, a 93% positive differential. Trading at the same valuation as if oil was $25.

2008-08-06

HOLD

48.560

Bruce Campbell

Just reported and its quarter was decent enough. Cash flow of about 35% year over year. Refining and marketing got squeezed on margins. Had ongoing production problems.

2008-07-30

BUY

47.220

Jaime Carrasco

Thinks we are early on into the appreciation of commodities. Cost of production is going up for the senior producers. In this case, earnings haven’t caught up to the price of the commodity and cost of production.

2008-07-25

HOLD

46.600

Followed the downward move in energy. Some production issues in the past but down here value is compelling and should be able to trade back up. Energy prices could come down a few more dollars before basing out and heading back up again. Trading at 8X earnings. Looking at this one.

2008-07-23

Comment

49.200

Peter Brieger

By the end of the year, they will have a proposal for construction in the oil sands and the market is waiting for that. In all likelihood, they are going to go ahead and once they make that decision, it will help both this company and UTS. On a price to cash flow basis, it is cheap.

2008-07-16

BUY

52.350

Neil Wickham

A good stock if you want to have an integrated position and probably the best one to have.

2008-07-14

DON'T BUY

52.250

David Burrows

Integrateds have done more poorly than the exploration/development companies. Refining business is a tough one right now.

2008-07-11

BUY

54.150

Should be able to cash flow in the neighbourhood of $10 a share in the next year or two. Making a lot of money upstream right now but are losing on refining margins. Very strong production base with prospects for increasing it over the next few years. Extremely good value at current levels.

2008-06-26

BUY

56.540

Has lagged expectations. Great asset package. There are a number of key projects that are coming online in the short term. The Libya project should have some good growth.

2008-06-19

HOLD

58.690

Has had a pretty decent run of late. Has really struggled in terms of its production side. Has disappointed investors for some time. Getting it back together but will never be the home run that some others are.

2008-06-16

TOP PICK

58.590

Very compelling. Model price is $100. Huge earnings revisions. 73 .5% positive differential.

2008-06-11

DON'T BUY

59.010

Relatively flat production profile over the last year and the next couple of years going forward. Others have more growth.

2008-06-09

BUY

58.970

Brendan Kyne

Caller: Husky Energy (HSE-T) or Petro Canada (PCA-T)?Brendan: Likes Husky better than Petro Canada at this stage as Husky has a really solid management team. Keep a good eye on the cost side. Both stocks will trade in line with what goes on in the commodity price.

2008-06-06

BUY on WEAKNESS

58.700

Joseph Schachter

The big cap companies are going on a lot higher but buy them on weakness. They refining and marketing business has been sloppy because of the political football when we are at the pump. Over time, they have to start making more money in refining if they are going to expand. A good story. Would buy under $51/$52.

2008-06-05

TOP PICK

58.700

Ross Healy

If you are going to be in the oils, pick a cheap one. They’re only selling a little over 2X book compared with the index, which is getting up to 3.5. If things don't work out, it won't get hit too badly but if they do, it could play some catch-up.

2008-06-05

SELL

57.580

Stephen Carlin

(Market Call Minute.) Not his favourite. Owns a little bit for its exposure to refining.

2008-06-03

SELL

57.330

Has had a good run but he would prefer a producer.

2008-05-30

BUY

56.560

Throwing off a lot of cash flow. Over the next 2 years, he expects cash flow to be over $10 per share. Represents pretty good value at this price. Integrateds are getting squeezed on the downstream operations.

2008-05-29

DON'T BUY

57.740

Jean-Francois Tardif

(Market Call Minute.) Prefers Encana (ECA-T) and wouldn’t hold it.

2008-05-27

BUY

57.740

No reason this stock shouldn’t be valued at $80. Have had some stumbles in terms of production and refinery margins have come under pressure, but the value of the assets is worth $80 to $100.

2008-05-27

BUY

59.300

Gavin Graham

Stock price is just back to where it as a year ago even though its assets are pretty equivalent to a number of other integrateds. Cheaper and has under performed, so it’s the one to own. Look at this on a 3 to 5 year view.

2008-05-20

HOLD

59.300

Bob Stodgell

Has started to pick up a bit of momentum. Good long-term investment.

2008-05-20

Comment

55.950

Steve MacInnes

Seems to be the perennial value story in the oil patch. Good suite of assets but in many respects not that exciting in doing anything earth shattering. Cheap and probably has room to grow but not his favourite.

2008-05-15

PAST TOP PICK

55.900

(A Top Pick Aug 1/07. Up 1%.) Picked because she saw a compelling valuation. Debt has continued to grow. Talking about a turnaround in 2008 at a number of facilities for an impact on production and cash flow. Not buying any more at this time.

2008-05-13

BUY

55.900

Cheap. They have an oil sands component and maybe, like Encana (ECA-T) they will split the company. Thinks good things are going to happen.

2008-05-13

TOP PICK

55.880

His model price is now $92.15, a 70% positive differential. This is one of the cheapest oils out there.

2008-05-08

BUY

54.430

Paul Thornton

It just triggered a Buy yesterday as it is just clearing that range it has been trading in since it peaked last July. There is a lot of volume coming in and the price gain was good. Another oil/gas stock that is starting to move.

2008-05-07

TOP PICK

50.460

Well diversified and the price is compelling. Over the next 2 years it will earn well over $10 in cash flow. Earns ROE of over 20% but is selling at 2X book. Where the worries might occur are over the downstream operations over the next year or two and to how quickly they can pass increases on to customers.

2008-04-30

WEAK BUY

50.130

John Zechner

He doesn't see any justification for the current price in oil. Thinks it has rolled over into pure speculation based on the US$. This stock is certainly cheap, but would not be putting a substantial position into it right now. Had a very nice bounce off its recent low.

2008-04-28

DON'T BUY

49.320

Trading around its net asset value. A little concerned about their debt. Prefers others.

2008-04-25

PARTIAL SELL

49.460

Looking at a year coming up where production will probably be down. Excellent assets. Had a good bounce recently and you could probably lighten up on the stock at around this price. Production is not growing.

2008-04-24

DON'T BUY

51.140

Laura Wallace

This has been a perennial disappointment. It has not mastered under promising and over delivering. Has the framework to be a great company but hasn't been able to achieve it.

2008-04-23

BUY

52.000

Gordon Higgins, CA, MBA, CFA

(Market Call Minute.) Undervalued.

2008-04-22

Comment

51.580

Refining margins are down, so even though they are getting $100 for oil, if you have to sell it for $1.15 at the gas station, it is less profitable.

2008-04-17

PAST TOP PICK

49.920

(A Top Pick Mar 16/07. Up 21%.) Long-term fundamentals are still good. Will be spending $5 billion a year on CapX projects. Thinks it will cash flow about $10 a year for the next 2 years. His Still a Buy for long-term investors.

2008-04-15

BUY

49.050

Joanne A. Hruska, CFA

(Market Call Minute.) Thinks that within a year it will finally turn around.

2008-04-14

Comment

47.500

Bruce Campbell

Statistically cheap but lags because lack of near-term growth, not for balance sheet reasons.

2008-04-11

Comment

47.660

This has been a management that has over promised and under delivered. While the assets and potential are great, they haven't been delivering their way they should. Hopefully this will change. (See his comments on Talisman under Top Picks.)

2008-04-10

BUY

47.430

Gavin Graham

Has been dropping lower and lower because the market does not like its group of assets. Have good global assets. Also a refiner and marketer. It will go higher over the next 3 to 5 years.

2008-04-09

HOLD

46.210

Joseph Schachter

Involved in a large number of products in the UK North Sea. Refining and marketing margins came down because of a glut of gasoline in the system. Prices should firm up during the driving season of summer. Likes their exploration. Good for a conservative investor.

2008-04-04

TOP PICK

44.910

His model price is $79.25, a 75% positive differential. No one cares about this one. Not sure when it will get recognized.

2008-04-03

DON'T BUY

44.910

Don Vialoux

Still in a downward trend. Chart is starting to show early signs of support. Short-term momentum indicators have started to turn positive during the last week. Recently just broke through its 50-day moving average. Choose something that has relative positive strength rather than relative negative strength.

2008-04-03

DON'T BUY

44.690

Michael Smedley

(Market Call Minute.) There are better places to go.

2008-04-01

TOP PICK

44.600

Likes its value. Have 17 exploration wells. They should be able to cash flow around $10 a share, suggesting that relative upside potential outweighs the downside. target of almost $60.

2008-03-27

HOLD

44.900

Ross Healy

Has been a favourite. The stock is dirt-cheap compared to the oils. Cannot understand why it’s so cheap.

2008-03-26

DON'T BUY

43.580

Benj Gallander

Would hold if owned, wouldn’t buy. Not cheap enough, to many dangers out there.

2008-03-25

WAIT

43.580

Fort hills is going to suck a lot of cash out of this company in the next 12 months or so. There is nothing else kicking in to bump cash flows up. It’s a value trap at this point. It’s cheap.

2008-03-25

TOP PICK

45.720

Oil prices have skyrocketed, yet the oil stocks have gone down. Valuing it's output at $55 to $60 per barrel. Thinks it's been extremely undervalued. Gas prices have gone up explosively.

2008-03-18

HOLD

46.240

Laura Wallace

(Market Call Minute.) Has disappointed yet again. Still a “show me” stock. At best it is a Hold.

2008-03-12

BUY

47.050

Derek Webb, CFA

Although they had good earnings, they came in below expectations. This is one of the reasons the stock has not been doing well. Multiples are very, very cheap because people don't believe the price of oil/gas should be where it is right now. Won't move as much as the others, but it is just fine.

2008-03-11

Comment

46.760

Has been a frustrating ride. Outlook is relatively flat for the next couple of years. The Hibernia did very well and was a great field, but has peaked out. Exploration in North Africa and other places looks interesting. He is not expecting new large production increases. Has always traded at a discount to its peers because of execution reasons more than anything else.

2008-03-07

TOP PICK

46.820

Gavin Graham

Fully integrated so it should be less volatile, but it is off 11.6% this year and only up 12% over the last year, total return. Has a great suite of assets.

2008-03-06

PAST TOP PICK

46.370

(A Top Pick Feb 20/07. Up 7%.) For longer-term investors, this represents excellent value. Over the next couple of years, he could see cash flow per share in the neighbourhood of $10, which would make it a very cheap stock. Have a lot of good assets such as the oil sands, refinery margins and retail margins. Selloff is probably due to East Coast production decreases. Represents very good values.

2008-03-05

HOLD

46.370

Lots of cash will be sucked up into the oil sands development for the next several years. Has a history of not being great on meeting guidance and street expectation on the upstream. Did have 3 good quarters in a row, which looked encouraging, but in the last quarter finding and development costs escalated. Cheap on an earnings multiple bases, but treat it as a Hold.

2008-03-05

HOLD

47.110

John O'Connell, CFA

Very frustrating company for a long period of time. A value play in what some call a “value trap”. One of the knocks is that it has so many different resource plays going on at once and is not focused enough. Have some great resources and assets. Had some cost overrun problems. Would prefer Suncor (SU-T) but if you own, he wouldn't be a seller.

2008-03-03

SELL

49.000

Peter Brieger

Wouldn't touch with a 10-foot pole. Doesn't like management. They have never done things right in his view.

2008-02-28

TOP PICK

49.180

(A Top Pick Mar 8/07. Up 17%.) Buy it, put it away for a year and you should do all right. His model price is $78.95, a 60% positive differential.

2008-02-27

DON'T BUY

48.610

Dennis Dasilva

Classic value trap to some degree. Trades at a discount to its peer group. Under performed. Operates in North America and the North Sea. Hasn't delivered on per-share growth. Fort Hills is a mega project at $15 billion which he expects them to sanction at the end of this year. It will take up a lot of their resources and capital and set them up for growth down the road. Really having trouble seeing growth in the next 12 to 18 months.

2008-02-25

DON'T BUY

44.130

Kenneth P. Norquay, CMT

This is trendless. It hasn't gone anywhere. Has basically gone sideways since the middle of 2005. In a trendless market, it is a trader's market. You want to buy Low and sell High. You should have some rules about what Low is. Use a short-term chart to see what the trading range should be. In this case, unfortunately, the January low has been taken out indicating it is still in a downtrend.

2008-02-12

Comment

44.350

Have had a bad case of over promising and bad deliverance and the market does not like that. Until they start to over deliver and under promise, the stock will probably continue to lag. Great assets.

2008-02-11

HOLD

44.260

(Market Call Minute.) They are betting solely on the downstream and have historically disappointed on the upstream, which seems to be the case going forward.

2008-02-08

DON'T BUY

44.260

A lot of the oil stocks deserve higher multiples than the market is giving them. This one is not his favourite. He didn't like their most recent numbers.

2008-02-08

TOP PICK

43.770

Bob Stodgell

Likes that they are in all facets of the energy business. Seems like it has been under a lot of pressure. Thinks it's good long-term value. If there is some plateauing of the oil prices coming out of this quarter, all the companies are going to do quite well.

2008-02-07

PAST TOP PICK

43.770