| BUY | 47.930 | Robert Floyd | Based on the pullback on the stock and commodity price, this is a fair entry point. This one is not his favourite. | 2008-08-21 | |
| STRONG BUY | 46.250 | Michael Sprung | Earnings of $3.10 and stock is selling at 4X earnings. Cash flow should be in excess of $12 over the next couple of years. Dividends were increased 54%. As an integrated they have been hurt over the last 6 months in their refining and retail operations. Valuation is compelling. | 2008-08-14 | |
| TOP PICK | 47.240 | Brian Acker, CA | Hugely undervalued. His model price is $89.85, a 93% positive differential. Trading at the same valuation as if oil was $25. | 2008-08-06 | |
| HOLD | 48.560 | Bruce Campbell | Just reported and its quarter was decent enough. Cash flow of about 35% year over year. Refining and marketing got squeezed on margins. Had ongoing production problems. | 2008-07-30 | |
| BUY | 47.220 | Jaime Carrasco | Thinks we are early on into the appreciation of commodities. Cost of production is going up for the senior producers. In this case, earnings haven’t caught up to the price of the commodity and cost of production. | 2008-07-25 | |
| HOLD | 46.600 | Robert Floyd | Followed the downward move in energy. Some production issues in the past but down here value is compelling and should be able to trade back up. Energy prices could come down a few more dollars before basing out and heading back up again. Trading at 8X earnings. Looking at this one. | 2008-07-23 | |
| Comment | 49.200 | Peter Brieger | By the end of the year, they will have a proposal for construction in the oil sands and the market is waiting for that. In all likelihood, they are going to go ahead and once they make that decision, it will help both this company and UTS. On a price to cash flow basis, it is cheap. | 2008-07-16 | |
| BUY | 52.350 | Neil Wickham | A good stock if you want to have an integrated position and probably the best one to have. | 2008-07-14 | |
| DON'T BUY | 52.250 | David Burrows | Integrateds have done more poorly than the exploration/development companies. Refining business is a tough one right now. | 2008-07-11 | |
| BUY | 54.150 | Michael Sprung | Should be able to cash flow in the neighbourhood of $10 a share in the next year or two. Making a lot of money upstream right now but are losing on refining margins. Very strong production base with prospects for increasing it over the next few years. Extremely good value at current levels. | 2008-06-26 | |
| BUY | 56.540 | Jennifer Stevenson | Has lagged expectations. Great asset package. There are a number of key projects that are coming online in the short term. The Libya project should have some good growth. | 2008-06-19 | |
| HOLD | 58.690 | John Stephenson | Has had a pretty decent run of late. Has really struggled in terms of its production side. Has disappointed investors for some time. Getting it back together but will never be the home run that some others are. | 2008-06-16 | |
| TOP PICK | 58.590 | Brian Acker, CA | Very compelling. Model price is $100. Huge earnings revisions. 73 .5% positive differential. | 2008-06-11 | |
| DON'T BUY | 59.010 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Relatively flat production profile over the last year and the next couple of years going forward. Others have more growth. | 2008-06-09 | |
| BUY | 58.970 | Brendan Kyne | Caller: Husky Energy (HSE-T) or Petro Canada (PCA-T)?Brendan: Likes Husky better than Petro Canada at this stage as Husky has a really solid management team. Keep a good eye on the cost side. Both stocks will trade in line with what goes on in the commodity price. | 2008-06-06 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 58.700 | Joseph Schachter | The big cap companies are going on a lot higher but buy them on weakness. They refining and marketing business has been sloppy because of the political football when we are at the pump. Over time, they have to start making more money in refining if they are going to expand. A good story. Would buy under $51/$52. | 2008-06-05 | |
| TOP PICK | 58.700 | Ross Healey | If you are going to be in the oils, pick a cheap one. They’re only selling a little over 2X book compared with the index, which is getting up to 3.5. If things don't work out, it won't get hit too badly but if they do, it could play some catch-up. | 2008-06-05 | |
| SELL | 57.580 | Stephen Carlin | (Market Call Minute.) Not his favourite. Owns a little bit for its exposure to refining. | 2008-06-03 | |
| SELL | 57.330 | Robert Floyd | Has had a good run but he would prefer a producer. | 2008-05-30 | |
| BUY | 56.560 | Michael Sprung | Throwing off a lot of cash flow. Over the next 2 years, he expects cash flow to be over $10 per share. Represents pretty good value at this price. Integrateds are getting squeezed on the downstream operations. | 2008-05-29 | |
| DON'T BUY | 57.740 | Jean-Francois Tardif | (Market Call Minute.) Prefers Encana (ECA-T) and wouldn’t hold it. | 2008-05-27 | |
| BUY | 57.740 | David Baskin | No reason this stock shouldn’t be valued at $80. Have had some stumbles in terms of production and refinery margins have come under pressure, but the value of the assets is worth $80 to $100. | 2008-05-27 | |
| BUY | 59.300 | Gavin Graham | Stock price is just back to where it as a year ago even though its assets are pretty equivalent to a number of other integrateds. Cheaper and has under performed, so it’s the one to own. Look at this on a 3 to 5 year view. | 2008-05-20 | |
| HOLD | 59.300 | Bob Stodgell | Has started to pick up a bit of momentum. Good long-term investment. | 2008-05-20 | |
| Comment | 55.950 | Steve MacInnes | Seems to be the perennial value story in the oil patch. Good suite of assets but in many respects not that exciting in doing anything earth shattering. Cheap and probably has room to grow but not his favourite. | 2008-05-15 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 55.900 | Jennifer Stevenson | (A Top Pick Aug 1/07. Up 1%.) Picked because she saw a compelling valuation. Debt has continued to grow. Talking about a turnaround in 2008 at a number of facilities for an impact on production and cash flow. Not buying any more at this time. | 2008-05-13 | |
| BUY | 55.900 | David Baskin | Cheap. They have an oil sands component and maybe, like Encana (ECA-T) they will split the company. Thinks good things are going to happen. | 2008-05-13 | |
| TOP PICK | 55.880 | Brian Acker, CA | His model price is now $92.15, a 70% positive differential. This is one of the cheapest oils out there. | 2008-05-08 | |
| BUY | 54.430 | Paul Thornton | It just triggered a Buy yesterday as it is just clearing that range it has been trading in since it peaked last July. There is a lot of volume coming in and the price gain was good. Another oil/gas stock that is starting to move. | 2008-05-07 | |
| TOP PICK | 50.460 | Michael Sprung | Well diversified and the price is compelling. Over the next 2 years it will earn well over $10 in cash flow. Earns ROE of over 20% but is selling at 2X book. Where the worries might occur are over the downstream operations over the next year or two and to how quickly they can pass increases on to customers. | 2008-04-30 | |
| WEAK BUY | 50.130 | John Zechner | He doesn't see any justification for the current price in oil. Thinks it has rolled over into pure speculation based on the US$. This stock is certainly cheap, but would not be putting a substantial position into it right now. Had a very nice bounce off its recent low. | 2008-04-28 | |
| DON'T BUY | 49.320 | Jennifer Stevenson | Trading around its net asset value. A little concerned about their debt. Prefers others. | 2008-04-25 | |
| PARTIAL SELL | 49.460 | David Cockfield | Looking at a year coming up where production will probably be down. Excellent assets. Had a good bounce recently and you could probably lighten up on the stock at around this price. Production is not growing. | 2008-04-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | 51.140 | Laura Wallace | This has been a perennial disappointment. It has not mastered under promising and over delivering. Has the framework to be a great company but hasn't been able to achieve it. | 2008-04-23 | |
| BUY | 52.000 | David Baskin | (Market Call Minute.) Undervalued. | 2008-04-22 | |
| Comment | 51.580 | Gordon Higgins, CA, MBA, CFA | Refining margins are down, so even though they are getting $100 for oil, if you have to sell it for $1.15 at the gas station, it is less profitable. | 2008-04-17 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 49.920 | Michael Sprung | (A Top Pick Mar 16/07. Up 21%.) Long-term fundamentals are still good. Will be spending $5 billion a year on CapX projects. Thinks it will cash flow about $10 a year for the next 2 years. His Still a Buy for long-term investors. | 2008-04-15 | |
| BUY | 49.050 | Joanne A. Hruska, CFA | (Market Call Minute.) Thinks that within a year it will finally turn around. | 2008-04-14 | |
| Comment | 47.500 | Bruce Campbell | Statistically cheap but lags because lack of near-term growth, not for balance sheet reasons. | 2008-04-11 | |
| Comment | 47.660 | Norman Levine | This has been a management that has over promised and under delivered. While the assets and potential are great, they haven't been delivering their way they should. Hopefully this will change. (See his comments on Talisman under Top Picks.) | 2008-04-10 | |
| BUY | 47.430 | Gavin Graham | Has been dropping lower and lower because the market does not like its group of assets. Have good global assets. Also a refiner and marketer. It will go higher over the next 3 to 5 years. | 2008-04-09 | |
| HOLD | 46.210 | Joseph Schachter | Involved in a large number of products in the UK North Sea. Refining and marketing margins came down because of a glut of gasoline in the system. Prices should firm up during the driving season of summer. Likes their exploration. Good for a conservative investor. | 2008-04-04 | |
| TOP PICK | 44.910 | Brian Acker, CA | His model price is $79.25, a 75% positive differential. No one cares about this one. Not sure when it will get recognized. | 2008-04-03 | |
| DON'T BUY | 44.910 | Don Vialoux | Still in a downward trend. Chart is starting to show early signs of support. Short-term momentum indicators have started to turn positive during the last week. Recently just broke through its 50-day moving average. Choose something that has relative positive strength rather than relative negative strength. | 2008-04-03 | |
| DON'T BUY | 44.690 | Michael Smedley | (Market Call Minute.) There are better places to go. | 2008-04-01 | |
| TOP PICK | 44.600 | Michael Sprung | Likes its value. Have 17 exploration wells. They should be able to cash flow around $10 a share, suggesting that relative upside potential outweighs the downside. target of almost $60. | 2008-03-27 | |
| HOLD | 44.900 | Ross Healey | Has been a favourite. The stock is dirt-cheap compared to the oils. Cannot understand why it’s so cheap. | 2008-03-26 | |
| DON'T BUY | 43.580 | Benj Gallander | Would hold if owned, wouldn’t buy. Not cheap enough, to many dangers out there. | 2008-03-25 | |
| WAIT | 43.580 | John Stephenson | Fort hills is going to suck a lot of cash out of this company in the next 12 months or so. There is nothing else kicking in to bump cash flows up. It’s a value trap at this point. It’s cheap. | 2008-03-25 | |
| TOP PICK | 45.720 | David Baskin | Oil prices have skyrocketed, yet the oil stocks have gone down.
Valuing it's output at $55 to $60 per barrel.
Thinks it's been extremely undervalued.
Gas prices have gone up explosively.
| 2008-03-18 | |
| HOLD | 46.240 | Laura Wallace | (Market Call Minute.) Has disappointed yet again. Still a “show me” stock. At best it is a Hold. | 2008-03-12 | |
| BUY | 47.050 | Derek Webb, CFA | Although they had good earnings, they came in below expectations. This is one of the reasons the stock has not been doing well. Multiples are very, very cheap because people don't believe the price of oil/gas should be where it is right now. Won't move as much as the others, but it is just fine. | 2008-03-11 | |
| Comment | 46.760 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Has been a frustrating ride. Outlook is relatively flat for the next couple of years. The Hibernia did very well and was a great field, but has peaked out. Exploration in North Africa and other places looks interesting. He is not expecting new large production increases. Has always traded at a discount to its peers because of execution reasons more than anything else. | 2008-03-07 | |
| TOP PICK | 46.820 | Gavin Graham | Fully integrated so it should be less volatile, but it is off 11.6% this year and only up 12% over the last year, total return. Has a great suite of assets. | 2008-03-06 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 46.370 | Michael Sprung | (A Top Pick Feb 20/07. Up 7%.) For longer-term investors, this represents excellent value. Over the next couple of years, he could see cash flow per share in the neighbourhood of $10, which would make it a very cheap stock. Have a lot of good assets such as the oil sands, refinery margins and retail margins. Selloff is probably due to East Coast production decreases. Represents very good values. | 2008-03-05 | |
| HOLD | 46.370 | John Stephenson | Lots of cash will be sucked up into the oil sands development for the next several years. Has a history of not being great on meeting guidance and street expectation on the upstream. Did have 3 good quarters in a row, which looked encouraging, but in the last quarter finding and development costs escalated. Cheap on an earnings multiple bases, but treat it as a Hold. | 2008-03-05 | |
| HOLD | 47.110 | John O'Connell, CFA | Very frustrating company for a long period of time. A value play in what some call a “value trap”. One of the knocks is that it has so many different resource plays going on at once and is not focused enough. Have some great resources and assets. Had some cost overrun problems. Would prefer Suncor (SU-T) but if you own, he wouldn't be a seller. | 2008-03-03 | |
| SELL | 49.000 | Peter Brieger | Wouldn't touch with a 10-foot pole. Doesn't like management. They have never done things right in his view. | 2008-02-28 | |
| TOP PICK | 49.180 | Brian Acker, CA | (A Top Pick Mar 8/07. Up 17%.) Buy it, put it away for a year and you should do all right. His model price is $78.95, a 60% positive differential. | 2008-02-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | 48.610 | Dennis Dasilva | Classic value trap to some degree. Trades at a discount to its peer group. Under performed. Operates in North America and the North Sea. Hasn't delivered on per-share growth. Fort Hills is a mega project at $15 billion which he expects them to sanction at the end of this year. It will take up a lot of their resources and capital and set them up for growth down the road. Really having trouble seeing growth in the next 12 to 18 months. | 2008-02-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | 44.130 | Kenneth P. Norquay, CMT | This is trendless. It hasn't gone anywhere. Has basically gone sideways since the middle of 2005. In a trendless market, it is a trader's market. You want to buy Low and sell High. You should have some rules about what Low is. Use a short-term chart to see what the trading range should be. In this case, unfortunately, the January low has been taken out indicating it is still in a downtrend. | 2008-02-12 | |
| Comment | 44.350 | Norman Levine | Have had a bad case of over promising and bad deliverance and the market does not like that. Until they start to over deliver and under promise, the stock will probably continue to lag. Great assets. | 2008-02-11 | |
| HOLD | 44.260 | John Stephenson | (Market Call Minute.) They are betting solely on the downstream and have historically disappointed on the upstream, which seems to be the case going forward. | 2008-02-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | 44.260 | David Cockfield | A lot of the oil stocks deserve higher multiples than the market is giving them. This one is not his favourite. He didn't like their most recent numbers. | 2008-02-08 | |
| TOP PICK | 43.770 | Bob Stodgell | Likes that they are in all facets of the energy business. Seems like it has been under a lot of pressure. Thinks it's good long-term value. If there is some plateauing of the oil prices coming out of this quarter, all the companies are going to do quite well. | 2008-02-07 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 43.770 | Brian Acker, CA | (A Top Pick Feb 1/07. Down 5% including dividends.) Grossly mispriced. His model price is $70.52, a 63.5% positive differential. If the market still hates the stock, it will go down to $38.50 and you then back up the truck. | 2008-02-07 | |
| BUY | 43.120 | Andrew Guy, CFA | Has dropped with the general selloff of the market. This is now particularly cheap so gives you an opportunity. Thinks oil prices will probably stay in the current range. | 2008-02-06 | |
| DON'T BUY | 47.190 | Norman Levine | Has been recommending this for some time but it has been relatively disappointing. Compared to most of the integrateds around the world, this is a very cheap stock. He had thought it would break out of that, but it still hasn't. Right now it is a “show me” stock. | 2008-01-29 | |
| BUY | 46.310 | Gordon Higgins, CA, MBA, CFA | Integrated oil/gas company. Has refineries, gas stations and explores for oil. This is a lot more stable and safe than others, which go up and down strictly on the price of oil. | 2008-01-25 | |
| HOLD | 46.970 | Joseph Schachter | If he is right about the natural gas prices recovering and the material breach of $100 in oil, they will punch through that July/August high of $60. | 2008-01-24 | |
| TOP PICK | 49.770 | Brian Acker, CA | (A Top Pick Jan 17/07. Up 12.7%.) His model price was substantially above the current price. Got no respect. A balance sheet and valuation story. Model price is $75.39, almost 50% positive differential. | 2008-01-17 | |
| TOP PICK | 54.960 | John Stephenson | It's cheap and now is the time to start looking at it because everything has been against this company and they have disappointed for so long, the perception is a very negative but it is starting to turn. Has pretty good production growth. Have some good properties. Signed a 30-year deal with Libya which is a good asset. | 2008-01-08 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 54.750 | Norman Levine | (A Top Pick Jan 9/07. Up 23.8%.) Still likes. Had a history of under delivering and over promising but this seems to be changing. Still the cheapest of the multi-nationals. Likes their international diversification. Putting a lot of money into their downstream and making it more profitable. | 2008-01-07 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 51.620 | David Cockfield | (A Past Top Pick Dec 27/06. Up 6.9%.) Not as enthused as he was last year. 08 looks more like a “ho hum” kind of year. Took some profits and switched to integrateds, Husky Energy (HSE-T). | 2007-12-21 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 51.430 | Brian Acker, CA | (A Past Top Pick Dec 21/06. Up 6.9%.) Still mispriced. His model price is $78.28. A 53.5% positive differential. | 2007-12-20 | |
| TOP PICK | 51.430 | Ross Healey | At a level that is very attractive. Selling at about 2X book making it very cheap compared to most oil patch stocks. | 2007-12-20 | |
| WEAK BUY | 51.900 | Alex Ruus | Very important to have energy weighting in your portfolio. Good refining downstream business as well as a decent upstream business. Wasn't too crazy about their acquisitions 5 years in Syria and Libya. Prefers Pacific Energy (PFE-T) (PFE.S-T) and Petrobank (PBG-T) where you will make a lot more money over the next 3 years. | 2007-12-13 | |
| WEAK BUY | 50.970 | Robert Floyd | Disappointed in the past but valuation is probably cheaper at this stage. Have some upside in terms of exploration that they are currently developing. | 2007-12-11 | |
| BUY | 50.690 | John O'Connell, CFA | A frustrating stock to own because it looks very inexpensive. Likes the integrated nature. Have enormous assets. Not expensive. | 2007-12-10 | |
| TOP PICK | 50.690 | Michael Sprung | Getting deeper into Libya and are putting up a large portion of the development expenses and will get 12% of the production. Price is compelling. Expect earnings to be around $5.75 this year and next. Cash flow should be around $10. | 2007-12-10 | |
| DON'T BUY | 50.350 | David Cockfield | Has gone through a pretty good period with rising production and margins looking a little bit better. Now seem to be going into one of those slow periods. A solid company. If you want to hold it for 10 years you'll probably do okay, but in the next year or so, production will be down. | 2007-12-07 | |
| HOLD | 49.280 | John Zechner | The biggest risk on this is the oil price and the Cdn$. On a longer-term basis, he likes their positioning, refining operations, international diversity and they still have some decent growth. | 2007-12-05 | |
| TOP PICK | 48.460 | Norman Levine | (His 3 Top Picks will not give you instant gratification, but are to be held for 1, 2, 3 years.) Affected by the Cdn$ as a lot of their operations are outside of Canada. Also has a lot of natural gas. Montreal refinery has a strike going on. Extremely reasonable valuation. Prospects on a number of their things are extremely promising. | 2007-12-03 | |
| TOP PICK | 48.300 | Ross Healey | A nice cheap integrated oil stock so has all bases covered. FMV is about triple the stock price. Reasonably close to good technical support. | 2007-11-30 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 51.180 | Bruce Campbell | (A Top Pick June 5/07. Up 5.9%.) Down at this price, is getting twitchy again about adding more. Fundamentals are still good. Good defensive growth. | 2007-11-22 | |
| WATCH | 51.390 | Paul Thornton | This is one of the best in its area worldwide. It may have bottomed out here as it’s holding its ground at around $52 since July. A good sign for the long term but it remains closer to its low since July. Be ready for it when it starts to run higher. | 2007-11-21 | |
| TOP PICK | 51.830 | Brian Acker, CA | (A Top Pick Dec 26/06. Up 8.8%.) Currently at a price that it always retreats to. If you Buy it here and hold it for a year, (no valuation change, just a growth in the balance sheet) it’ll be $61.25, an implied rate of return of 18.5%. Model price is $72.88, a 42% upside. | 2007-11-20 | |
| DON'T BUY | 51.640 | Paul Thornton | One of the top oil/gas stocks. The issue with oil and gas is the US$. The price of oil has come off when the dollar rallied. It makes any resource stock a tough go here. Would stay away from this group right now. | 2007-11-16 | |
| BUY | 53.420 | John Stephenson | Everything has been negative about this stock for so long that it is perceived as a value play on the street but it has started to meet and exceed production goals. Inexpensive. | 2007-11-12 | |
| BUY | 54.290 | Norman Levine | Very positive long-term on this one. Has been undervalued for a long time, compared to most of the majors around the world. Part of that is used to them missing street expectations. Their downstream operations have become far more profitable than it used to be. Likes their diversification out of Canada. | 2007-11-09 | |
| TOP PICK | 54.890 | Michael Sprung | Has a lot of international scope. Good production profile increase over the next 2 years. Expects to see cash flows in the range of $10 plus over the next couple of years. Very inexpensive. Well balanced between upstream and downstream. | 2007-11-06 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 53.330 | Brian Acker, CA | (A Top Pick Dec 21/06. Up 14.1%.) His model price is $79.66, a 46% positive differential. Still a Buy. | 2007-11-01 | |
| TOP PICK | 53.090 | Michael Sprung | One of biggest holdings in the energy sector. Well managed company. Deploys its capital well. Will be cash flowing in excess of $10/share. Production profile is going up next year. Good longer term. Good opportunity going forward. Paying just over 2 times book value for it. | 2007-10-26 | |
| WEAK BUY | 53.090 | Stephen Carlin | Good name, not the best operated company. Cheapest integrated company in North America. Bringing on some new projects. Like the company, you could make some money, strong oil price outlook. | 2007-10-25 | |
| STRONG BUY | 52.710 | David Baskin | They like it. There is strong indication that down stream margins are going to be weak this quarter. Very high oil prices are not making it down to the pumps (gasoline).
Thinks it's excellent value at this price. Has great assets. | 2007-10-23 | |
| BUY | 52.710 | Norman Levine | He views it as the world's cheapest multi-national integration oil company. It is a large player in natural gas. He is very positive on it. It has lots of production in different areas. | 2007-10-23 | |
| WAIT | 53.650 | Bob Stodgell | Might as well wait and see what the Alberta government does with the Royalty regime. Likes it long term, but short term wait.
Dividend is .97 %
| 2007-10-18 | |
| WAIT | 51.920 | Laura Wallace | Good performer on a relative basis over the last 12 months. Wait for the new royalty regime to come down before buying. | 2007-10-15 | |
| BUY | 52.720 | Robert Floyd | Had a few false starts in the past in terms of their growth plans. Last quarter was pretty promising. At this level, it is looking pretty good. | 2007-10-12 | |
| BUY | 53.500 | Brian Acker, CA | He has a model price of $78.50, which is a 46% positive differential. He would love to see the stock back at $50.90, which would be a great entry. | 2007-10-10 | |
Experts that have talked about Petro-Can
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