| Comment | 30.550 | Kevin O'Leary | 2 problems. A commodity and also a trust (that the government doesn't like any more). Will trade with the price of oil and thinks oil will stay around $100 for quite a long time. Pretty good yield. The big question is, what is going to happen when it announces its conversion back to a corporation. Some of the trusts have dropped as much as 17%. Well run trust. | 2008-08-25 | |
| BUY | 30.430 | John Stephenson | Royalty trusts seem to be working very well with an average return of 11%. Have several legs on their stool including enhanced oil recovery, coal methane, tight gas and a tremendous inventory of undeveloped land. | 2008-08-22 | |
| HOLD | 30.700 | Robert Floyd | Largest oil/gas trust. Have made 3 acquisitions over the last little while. Well over 13% yield. | 2008-08-21 | |
| HOLD | 29.100 | Sandy McIntyre | Owns but not as a core position. Concerned that they continually don’t hit their numbers but there are very large option values on the option base. Largest land base in Canada. As a long-term investor he is content to Hold. | 2008-08-15 | |
| BUY | 29.860 | Michael Simpson, CFA | Evenly split between oil and gas. Fair amount of tax pools, which will carry them to about 2014. Well run trust. | 2008-08-13 | |
| BUY | 30.320 | John Stephenson | Very large oil/gas producer that ranks #5 in the country. In spite of all the volatility, royalty trusts have done pretty well because you are getting paid to wait. Because of its size, scale and experience it should be a successful corporation when trusts have to change. 13% yield. | 2008-08-06 | |
| HOLD | 30.500 | Michael Smedley | Not too glamorous of late. Good distribution at 13.3%. | 2008-08-01 | |
| DON'T BUY | 30.500 | David Cockfield | Not particularly good operators. Ton of undeveloped land. Keeps expecting them to do better. Yield is excellent because of lower stock price, which reflects general disappointment of investors. | 2008-08-01 | |
| HOLD | 29.990 | Robert Floyd | Recently acquired Endev Energy (ENE-T), which he owned. Outlook is quite strong. Continued exploration development. Made about 3 acquisitions over the last several months and complementing this with increased drilling. Controlling payouts of cash flow quite nicely and will have to do this over the next 2 years. | 2008-07-23 | |
| Comment | 30.010 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Really hasn't moved like some of the others, so is undervalued. A “wait-and-see” management on their ability to incorporate their acquisitions. It should do better in future. | 2008-07-18 | |
| BUY | 31.070 | Gavin Graham | They bought Canetic and Vault at the end of last year, which resulted in some extra stock out there. Also, they're finding costs per barrel is a little higher than he likes. However, it pays 11.5%. Because of high oil prices, they'll probably have extra payouts. | 2008-07-07 | |
| HOLD | 33.720 | David Baskin | This is a good one and with energy prices what they are it should be a sustainable distribution. Have tax pools so they won't get taxed for a while. | 2008-07-03 | |
| BUY | 34.480 | Peter Brieger | Has the advantage of about $6 billion in tax pools meaning you don’t have to worry about the taxes in 2011 for several years. Management is doing an extensive review of its options. Pretty good yield. | 2008-06-30 | |
| BUY | 34.030 | Michael Sprung | Represents fairly good value. Yield of over 11.5%. A lot of tax pools so that even when they convert to a corporation in 2011 it will be some time before they have to pay any significant tax. | 2008-06-26 | |
| BUY | 34.760 | John Stephenson | Attractively valued and should go higher. One of the largest holders of Legacy Oil reservoirs. With enhanced recovery from CO2 flooding they are able to increase recovery. Should go higher. | 2008-06-16 | |
| Comment | 34.340 | Brian Acker, CA | Have no trusts in his portfolio. Trusts will have to convert back into corporations. When that happens, they have a haircut of about 30%. His model price is $51.37, and upside of about 51%. | 2008-06-11 | |
| HOLD | 32.660 | Robert Floyd | Thinks it could go a little higher. Hold onto it for the next 12-18 months | 2008-05-30 | |
| BUY | 31.870 | Michael Sprung | Good exposure to gas. Good properties. Has about a 12% yield. For a long-term investor, it is probably a fairly good investment. On his radar screen. | 2008-05-29 | |
| WAIT | 33.810 | Ken McCord | Fundamentally what is backing up energy stories is still very much intact. A big believer in energy. In the next week or two, there could be a little pullback, which will give you great entry points. | 2008-05-23 | |
| BUY | 34.380 | Gavin Graham | Didn’t like their acquisitions of Canetic and Vault and sold his holdings last year. Has rebounded very strongly because they are the largest oil/gas trust and the market seems to feel that this has got some legs. With the high price of oil, distribution is probably. 11.8% yield. | 2008-05-20 | |
| Comment | 33.690 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Undervalued relative to its peers. Hasn’t been cited as one of the top performing trusts by many of the analysts. Has a lot of gas, which will do well down the road. Consolidating with a number of mergers. Produces almost 192,000 barrels a day. Should do well on taking advantage of the current gas prices. | 2008-05-16 | |
| Comment | 32.480 | Michael Simpson, CFA | One of the larger oil/gas trusts. Currently producing 200,000 BOEs a day. Expect they will have to spend $1.1 billion to replace their existing production based on their current decline rate. Q1 results were pretty decent. Looking at acquisitions overseas. Would like to see the payout ratio and debt levels come down a bit. | 2008-05-14 | |
| SELL | 31.800 | Kevin Hall BComm, CFA | Had some challenges in the past in terms of their capital efficiency ratios. Has had a decent rally. Acquired Canetic Resources last year, which he didn't feel was a good one. There are better alternatives. | 2008-05-06 | |
| HOLD | 30.280 | Peter Brieger | One of his favourites. With their tax pools, they could probably go out to about 2013. Talking about reducing distributions to create at 4%-5% yield and converting into a long-term growth E&P company. Keep an eye on the corporate plans. | 2008-05-01 | |
| Comment | 31.150 | Robert Lauzon | Over 50% is held by US investors. For them to cut distributions drastically in 2011, there will be a large turnover of units to shares. Still plan on paying high levels of dividends/distributions following 2011. Lots of tax pools so probably won't pay tax for a few years. Made 2 very large acquisitions, Petrofund Energy and Canetic Resources, which has created some integration issues and production did not meet expectations. Feels there are income trusts with better opportunities. 13% yield. | 2008-04-28 | |
| BUY | 30.690 | David Cockfield | Recently made some good acquisitions. His big disappointment with this one is that they have about 5 million acres of undeveloped land and never seemed to be that good at finding oil. Pays a good return of about 12%. | 2008-04-24 | |
| HOLD | 30.830 | Peter Brieger | Likes this one, but sold his holdings. As an overview, he wouldn't sell any oil/gas income trust right now given what natural gas and oil is doing. They have 5.5 billion of tax pools which means they could delay taxes until 2013/2014. | 2008-04-17 | |
| BUY | 30.380 | Ben Cheng | Substantial oil/gas land inventory, which will be exploited over the next couple of years. | 2008-04-16 | |
| BUY | 29.930 | Joanne A. Hruska, CFA | Just recently bought this. Made a lot of acquisitions lately, so she was cautious because of possible integration risks. Expect it to be trading a lot higher in the next year. Trading at a lot less than its peers. Note that issue. Expects new president will do a good job. | 2008-04-14 | |
| BUY | 29.100 | Peter Brieger | Have tax pools of more than $6 million, so if they stay in the trust structure they would be tax-free until about 2013. The company would like to convert to a high yield exploration company which would yield about 4%/5% and hope that capital gains would offset the difference from low interest rates to the distribution rates. | 2008-04-02 | |
| Comment | 28.750 | Peter Brieger | Very interesting battle between the Bulls and the Bears over this company. Feels the majority of the street hates it. Made some acquisitions. Management recently guided down by about 5000 barrels a day. Feels this is a great company with a great opportunity in the US and elsewhere and could rise to the status of an Encana (ECA-T) or CNQ (CNQ-T). Have some great tax pools so taxes are not much of a factor before 2013. Created a new company that is run by management of Crescent Point (CPG.UN-T) and recently acquired part of a company by using this. | 2008-02-28 | |
| Comment | 29.240 | Sandy McIntyre | Likes the 2009 and 2010 stories with their development of their heavy oil project at Seal. Have a very challenging asset-base from the point of view of meeting production declines and have not consistently hit their numbers. 18.3% yield. | 2008-02-26 | |
| SELL | 27.290 | Kenneth P. Norquay, CMT | (Caller wants to know if he should sell and then buy BCE.) Depends on if you are a trader, financial planner, et cetera. Company is in a downtrend and you shouldn't own stocks in a downtrend. You could sell on a bounce, but can't see any evidence of a bounce. | 2008-02-12 | |
| BUY | 26.850 | David Baskin | They get no respect. It's a big producer. Have tremendous tax pools going forward that they will use after 2011. All the energy companies have sold off in spite of the fact that oil is still at $90. Very good entry point. | 2008-02-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | 25.000 | Bruce Campbell | 16.6% yield starts to reflect the possibility of a cut. Did a recent large merger with Canetic (CNE.UN-T). Doesn't consider it a growth vehicle. | 2008-01-23 | |
| Comment | 25.780 | Michael Simpson, CFA | One of the largest oil/gas trusts. Have been making a lot of acquisitions and have reached about 200,000 barrels a day. This leads to a lot of spending to maintain production. Has dropped a lot so he is looking at this. Almost 16% yield and will depend on the price of commodities and capital spending needed. | 2008-01-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | 26.450 | Brian Acker, CA | Model price is $25.52 and is certainly not mispriced. Still paying distributions of about $4, $1.02 per quarter and consensus means estimates on earnings is $1.29, so the equity is disappearing. | 2008-01-17 | |
| Comment | 27.950 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Merger with Canetic (CNE.UN-T) is going reasonably well. What they earn they have to spend on capital expenditures, pay dividends/distributions and now have to pay taxes. He likes a self-sustaining model where they earn as much as they spend and this company is not quite doing that yet. | 2008-01-15 | |
| BUY | 26.150 | Peter Brieger | Given the growth of foreign exchange reserves by Middle Eastern oil exporters, he thinks there will be a demand for diversification and this would be an obvious one for countries such as Abu Dhabi and Dubai. 15.5% distribution should be safe. | 2008-01-11 | |
| BUY | 26.690 | Joanne A. Hruska, CFA | In the middle of a merger with Canetic (CNE.UN-T), which will make them the biggest trust out there. Expect it will be among the leaders in the sector simply because of the size, management and the properties they have. | 2008-01-04 | |
| SELL | 25.840 | Bruce Campbell | Merged with Canetic (CNE.UN-T) and bought Vault (VNG.UN-T). Now has a fair bit of gas so there is some worry about maintaining the distribution. Longer term it will be fine. They have a good land position. If they are going to take a hit on distributions, it will probably be in the next 6 months. | 2007-12-31 | |
| DON'T BUY | 26.860 | John O'Connell, CFA | All the oil/gas trusts are swimming against a very tough tide. They have to consider when to make a transition to a corporation. He likes the oil/gas sector but tries to keep it as simple as he can. | 2007-12-10 | |
| SELL | 26.400 | Kevin Hall BComm, CFA | Merging with Canetic (CNE.UN-T) and bought Vault (VNG.UN-T), so there is a lot going on. Will be the largest oil/gas trust in Canada but not sure how a bigger trust will benefit. Down with tax loss selling, but market is also indicating it is not sure how a bigger trust will benefit going forward. | 2007-12-04 | |
| SELL | 26.540 | Ross Healey | Good management but earnings forecasts have been steadily sinking and they are making an acquisition, which may be difficult for the company to support. They may have to reduce distributions. He is selling his holdings. | 2007-11-30 | |
| HOLD | 26.400 | Michele Robitaille | Under delivered in 2007 on their capital efficiencies and production results. Put a lot of money into their heavy oil play Seal and haven't seen the results. Recently announced a merger with Canetic (CNE.UN-T). Feels this was to access More cash flow to put in the projects. Generates significant cash flows but also creates a much bigger company with much bigger declines that have to be replaced annually. Not convinced this is the best move for them. | 2007-11-28 | |
| Comment | 27.380 | Peter Brieger | Creating a colossus by merging with Canetic (CNE.UN-T) and will be able to snap up a lot of E & P companies along with smaller oil/gas income trusts. Tax pools stretch out for 5 or 6 years so distribution should be safe. He would like to see a better statement of where they are going. He owns Canetic and will take Penn West units when they come. | 2007-11-26 | |
| Comment | 27.280 | Bruce Campbell | 15% yield. The market is semi-expecting a cut. Feels trusts are paying you out of their own capital. They were set up to have long life assets but not as growth. It will no longer have that avenue after 2011. This one is better because it has a big land position and the merger will reduce this a little bit. | 2007-11-22 | |
| HOLD | 27.370 | John Stephenson | Merging with Canetic (CNE.UN-T) and it's an OK transaction. Would be a holder, but not an aggressive buyer. This company has a good operating discipline and Canetic is more of an acquirer. Have some very good assets to put together. | 2007-11-12 | |
| DON'T BUY | 28.210 | Michael Simpson, CFA | Merging with Canetic (CNE.UN-T), which will give it a production of about 210,000 barrels a day. About 55% oil. Payout ratio is about 125%on a free cash flow basis (after maintenance capital spending), which is high. | 2007-11-08 | |
| WAIT | 29.000 | Peter Brieger | Acquiring Canetic (CNE.UN-T). Good acquisition as it gives critical mass of 2000 barrels a day production, capacity to absorb other income trusts and/or oil/gas exploration companies. Also gives them leverage to expand not only outside of Alberta, but into the US. Would wait for the merger to take position before buying. | 2007-11-06 | |
| DON'T BUY | 29.660 | Bill Harris | Not intimate with this one, but he follows it because it is a bellwether and a great company. Extremely well run. Have headwinds on the gas side and distributing their money. Wants to know what they will be doing in the 3 years time. Would rather own a pure play. | 2007-11-05 | |
| DON'T BUY | 31.830 | Michael Sprung | Does have a lot of holdings in Alberta. There are a few others preferred in the trust sector. | 2007-10-26 | |
| HOLD | 30.840 | Robert Floyd | Doing reasonably well. The real issue here is going to be on royalties and taxation. | 2007-10-12 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 30.550 | Ross Healey | (A Top Pick Dec 4/06. Down 4.8%.) His Fair Market Value has slipped a fair amount. Strange as the company, when it became a trust, retained its land spread. On a BV, it is fairly cheap. Pressure on earnings and a lot depends on the Alberta royalty trust taxation. | 2007-10-05 | |
| SELL | 30.550 | Adam Thomas | Would sell this one and get into Crescent Point (CPG.UN-T), which has a more sustainable model. | 2007-10-05 | |
| DON'T BUY | 31.060 | David Burrows | The oil/gas energy trusts is a space that is really challenged. This one has a lot of property, but may not have the capacity to go and find a lot more production. Prefers to be outside of Canada until the political situation settles out. | 2007-10-04 | |
| HOLD | 30.640 | Michele Robitaille | A decent name. They are in a “show me” mode. There are better places to be. | 2007-10-03 | |
| BUY | 30.850 | John Stephenson | Recently bought the assets of Vault (VNG.UN-T). Very big and very liquid. Good name. Little chance of a distribution cut. | 2007-09-26 | |
| BUY | 31.060 | Peter Brieger | A long-term buy. One of the leaders in the trust area. Has a 19% upside potential. One of the ones that will survive going forward. | 2007-09-25 | |
| WAIT | 29.350 | Patrick Kim | Been frustrating name. Diversified asset base. Have been operational problems. Need to show volume turnarounds. A lot of people calling for distribution to be cut. Has been under performing its peers. | 2007-09-21 | |
| DON'T BUY | 28.970 | Brian Acker, CA | 25% positive differential. Not a big fan of the company nor would I have in portfolio. Other oil companies have positive fundamentals were looking for. Prefers Petro Canada and Husky. | 2007-09-20 | |
| HOLD | 30.930 | Ben Cheng | Has dropped significantly in the last 2 months, he would not be a seller. Production has been a little bit disappointing, but not significantly so. Produces in excess of 120,000 equivalent a day. | 2007-09-05 | |
| WAIT | 30.620 | Alex Ruus | Arc Energy (AET.UN-T) and Penn West (PWT.UN-T) are probably 2 of the better trusts with some of the best quality assets and the 2 biggest owners in the Pembina oilfield. If you are a bull on long-term oil prices, these are one of the better places to be | 2007-09-04 | |
| SELL | 30.440 | Michael Sprung | 13.5% yield. Cash flow estimates going forward appear to be more down than up. Had disappointing production in the 2nd quarter. Reserve life index is around 8 years. Debt to cash flow ratio has been going up and is forecasted to go up a little more. | 2007-08-31 | |
| SELL | 29.800 | Brian Acker, CA | His model price is $37.13, which is a 25% positive differential however there will be a 30% tax hit and the balance sheet is deteriorating because of their distribution payout. | 2007-08-30 | |
| HOLD | 30.400 | Peter Brieger | One of the best in the country in terms of management and executing a business plan. | 2007-08-28 | |
| BUY | 30.360 | David Baskin | A quality trust. Down in value because of a malaise that has hit the entire energy complex in Canada. Excellent value. | 2007-08-23 | |
| PARTIAL SELL | 30.360 | Michele Robitaille | Has been lightening up on her positions over the last 3/4 months. Basically in a “show me” mode. Capital efficiencies have been slipping. Results from Seal have not been as good as they expected. | 2007-08-23 | |
| DON'T BUY | 30.300 | Brian Acker, CA | He has a model price of $36.80, a 22% positive differential, however these things are going to be taxable at 30%. Earnings will go down by 30% and his model price would probably go down 30% as well. | 2007-08-22 | |
| HOLD | 30.220 | Joseph Schachter | Believes distributions are sustainable at these levels. A recovery will require higher natural gas prices. | 2007-08-17 | |
| BUY | 30.850 | Sandy McIntyre | Has yet to hit their production numbers. Disappointed quarter after quarter. Have some great properties and some great option values that will surface 2, 3 years down the road. Bias when it is cheap and sells when it goes up. Prefers others. | 2007-08-13 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 31.070 | John Stephenson | (A Top Pick Aug 21/06. Down 32.1%.) More gas and oil. Good balance sheet. It should recover from here and is a Buy. 13% yield. | 2007-08-08 | |
| HOLD | 31.800 | Michael Smedley | Very seasoned management with a large land holding. Down the road it will be great. | 2007-08-03 | |
| DON'T BUY | 32.300 | Jennifer Stevenson | Has suffered from its inability to meet its forecasts. Good diversification between gas and oil. There are better trusts available. | 2007-08-01 | |
| DON'T BUY | 33.200 | John O'Connell, CFA | Has run into a great deal of trouble, not just because of oil prices, but the income trust issue as well. Would look for companies that have a lot of oil exposure rather than natural gas. | 2007-07-31 | |
| BUY | 33.970 | Leslie Lundquist | A stable core long-term holding. Has some interesting opportunities after the next quarter. | 2007-07-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | 34.790 | Ben Cheng | This has not being the most efficient operator on the exploration side. There are better oil/gas trusts out there such as Arc (AET.UN-T) or Enerplus (ERF.UN-T). | 2007-07-23 | |
| HOLD | 35.570 | Peter Brieger | One of the best. | 2007-07-19 | |
| HOLD | 35.970 | Alex Ruus | One of the best energy trusts. They are the biggest owner in the biggest conventional oilfield in Canada, Pembina Cardium. | 2007-07-18 | |
| Comment | 35.780 | Sandy McIntyre | Natural gas prices are very weak. Oil prices are not as strong as people think. Production will be a little bit weak due to severe weather in Alberta. Has one of the most diverse asset bases. | 2007-07-03 | |
| BUY | 35.550 | Bill Harris | Natural gas. They are so good at what they do that there is a likelihood of blowing your brains out operating the company. Can't see it as a takeover target. | 2007-06-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | 36.150 | Brian Acker, CA | His model price is $44.52, a 24% positive differential, which will disappear in 2 years so are trading at what their future earnings are. (See “Today’s Commentary”.) | 2007-06-21 | |
| DON'T BUY | 37.050 | Michael Sprung | The price reflects the perception of the market in regards to their properties and payouts. He doesn't see any immediate problems, but if there is a hit in commodity prices that may affect things.
A number of others, that have better properties or better balance sheets and are selling at a more reasonable valuation level. | 2007-06-15 | |
| BUY | 37.090 | Michele Robitaille | A higher quality trust. One of the larger trusts.
| 2007-06-11 | |
| BUY | 37.860 | Peter Brieger | Before it was converted into a trust was one of the premier oil and gas companies in the west. Still thinks it is, within the trust structure.
It may not stay in a trust structure as taxation rules are pending.
It's in a perfect space to buy other mid-sized oil and gas trusts and producers.
He likes it long term, but doesn't own it, waiting to find out what the rules are.
| 2007-06-04 | |
| TOP PICK | 37.450 | Ross Healey | A defensive recommendation, might give you 11% and some capital gain. | 2007-06-01 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 38.060 | Michael Smedley | (A Top Pick June 22/06. Down 9%.) Great company. Has broken through the 100,000 barrels a day wall. Great assets. Still a Buy. | 2007-05-25 | |
| HOLD | 36.230 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | One of the larger royalty trusts. Spend a large amount of money in order to keep production up. Made some nice acquisitions. Likes it, but not one of his favourites. Better value elsewhere. Fully valued. | 2007-05-09 | |
| WEAK BUY | 33.190 | John Stephenson | This is a name that has one of the better stories in the income trusts. Has a lot of potential upside from CO2 flooding. A hold, or even had modestly to. | 2007-04-30 | |
| HOLD | 34.210 | Peter Brieger | This is one of the quality oil companies in the country. He has decided not to buy oil/gas trusts until the rules on taxation are clearer. | 2007-04-18 | |
| BUY | 33.930 | Michael Sprung | Own a number of good properties that will be desirable by others down the road. Distribution is reasonably secure. | 2007-04-11 | |
| HOLD | 34.190 | Peter Brieger | Given the uncertainty on the legislation governing trusts he'd be inclined to Hold. One of the great oil/gas companies in Canada. | 2007-04-04 | |
| Comment | 34.400 | Bruce Campbell | Best land position of any of the trusts. Good track record. Downside in trusts is that they are paying out cash flow instead of using it for drilling. To grow production quickly, they have to drill and possibly make acquisitions putting them on a treadmill. If you want yield and not growth, it's fine. | 2007-04-02 | |
| DON'T BUY | 33.970 | John O'Connell, CFA | Income trust thing is a ticking bomb. It'll keep working against you. Distribution cuts are going to be a thing for the foreseeable future. | 2007-03-30 | |
| HOLD | 34.390 | Robert Floyd | These types of stocks should have moved yesterday, but there may be concern on potential new US tax legislation. If the outlook for oil/gas is to be going up, the stocks should do well. | 2007-03-29 | |
| BUY | 35.460 | John Stephenson | One of the best trusts. Reasonably decent balance sheet. Payout ratio is not one of whack. Have some upside with an oil sands stake as well as CO2 flooding. Huge land mass. Reasonable valuation. | 2007-03-27 | |
| HOLD | 35.660 | Michele Robitaille | Will be able to grow through the drill bit and internal development. Has a very significant land base and have done some farm-outs on some of the lower quality areas. Also have some resource plays with good potential. | 2007-03-23 | |
| BUY | 33.500 | Neil Wickham | Distribution of about 12%. If oil prices stay or get stronger, the distribution is probably safe. He is positive on the price of oil. Payout ratio is below 50%. | 2007-03-20 | |
| Comment | 33.500 | Michael Simpson, CFA | Have some interesting projects with CO2 and are currently running a pilot project. Good management. | 2007-03-20 | |
| WAIT | 32.630 | David Cockfield | Have lots of land. They farm out their properties to other companies to drill and explore. Lots of potential. Wait for the budget before buying. | 2007-03-15 | |
Experts that have talked about Penn West Energy Trust
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