| PAST TOP PICK | 8.350 | John Stephenson | (A Top Pick Aug 22/07. Up 23%.) Great leverage to gas prices and had recommended when gas prices were depressed. Recently sold his holdings. | 2008-08-22 | |
| TOP PICK | 8.230 | Sandy McIntyre | 100% gas. Short reserve life index. Balance sheet is OK but not great. Asset base decline rate is between 16 and low 20’s while reserve life index has a 27% decline rate. 14.75% yield. (Betting on short duration over no distribution.) | 2008-08-15 | |
| WATCH | 7.940 | David Burrows | Virtually all gas. Very conservative management with a fairly low payout ratio. Will trade with natural gas stocks, but there is yield support that should give it some support. He would want to see some positive price action before he bought. | 2008-08-05 | |
| WAIT | 7.800 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | 100% gas. Sold his holdings last fall, presuming low gas prices. Would wait to see how strong gas imports are this summer. He likes it. Has good plays and is well managed and a good cash position. | 2008-03-07 | |
| DON'T BUY | 6.950 | John Stephenson | Very short reserve life index of about 5 years. Also gas weighted. | 2008-02-08 | |
| BUY | 6.830 | Michael Simpson, CFA | Primarily natural gas weighted. Cut their distribution in December. Debt levels are a bit higher than he likes. He owns it for leverage to natural gas. Distributions should be sustainable over the short and medium period. Likes it at this price. | 2008-01-22 | |
| Comment | 6.400 | Ben Cheng | (Market Call Minute.) Potential for an acquisition and consolidation with their parent Paramount Resources (POU-T). Doesn't think it will occur for the next 12 months. Tremendous yield may not be safe going forward. | 2008-01-21 | |
| DON'T BUY | 6.350 | Michael Sprung | Thinks they will have problems they will have to face going forward. Worried a little bit about the distributions. | 2007-12-10 | |
| SELL | 6.310 | Bruce Campbell | (Market Call Minute) A gassy trust, which is the kind of thing he avoids. | 2007-11-22 | |
| WEAK BUY | 6.230 | Gavin Graham | Not a trust that we like. All of these trusts have been big under performers. If you don’t mind the management, you can buy. | 2007-11-19 | |
| Comment | 7.000 | Michael Simpson, CFA | Has some issues with debt, so sold some assets. Thinks their payout ratio will be in the 65% - 70% range. Good management. | 2007-11-08 | |
| SELL | 7.840 | Adam Thomas | Would not be an owner of this one right now. He would look at an affiliated company Paramount Resources (POU-T). It doesn't pay a distribution, but is probably one of the stronger energy names. | 2007-10-05 | |
| HOLD | 8.100 | Joseph Schachter | Had to cut their distributions. They are trying to get to a 50% payout, which allows them to continue the payout as well as reinvest in the ground. | 2007-08-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | 8.400 | John Stephenson | Slashed their distribution by 29%, which came after an equity issue. This caused a drop in the stock. A decent name, but it only has a 5.3-year reserve life. Dead money for a while. | 2007-08-08 | |
| BUY | 9.780 | Joseph Schachter | The problem here is natural gas prices. There is a lot of inventory. He believes that natural gas prices will recover.. | 2007-07-20 | |
| Comment | 9.770 | Peter Brieger | This is a classic example of what is going to happen to the trusts as they get nearer to 2011. It will depend to some extent on the tax pools. Expect distributions will be cut. | 2007-07-19 | |
| BUY | 11.410 | Michael Simpson, CFA | Primarily weighted to natural gas. Could see some choppy trading in the short term based on his short-term forecasts that natural gas might not be that robust. Likes it longer-term. Good management. Good for a long-term hold. | 2007-07-04 | |
| HOLD | 9.750 | John Stephenson | 100% gas weighted but has hedged about 50% of their production. 5 year reserve life. Specialists in shallow gas, which is the most likely to be curtailed when gas prices are low. | 2007-03-27 | |
| Comment | 9.660 | Gavin Graham | Has always been fairly aggressive in their reserve life calculations, as well as the amount they pay out. Trusts growing by the chequebook, and paying out most of what they generate, have been badly affected. Has interesting acreage and will be leveraged to the price of oil. | 2007-03-26 | |
| DON'T BUY | 9.370 | Kevin Hall BComm, CFA | Very short reserve life index. Primary focus is natural gas. Their ability to maintain the reserve life is going to be a challenge. If you're looking for natural gas, he would suggest looking at Focus Energy (FET.UN-T), Peyto Energy (PEY.UN-T) or Progress Energy (PGX.UN-T). | 2007-03-09 | |
| WAIT | 11.560 | John Stephenson | The biggest problem here is that it is a gas weighted trust. Good management. If you hold it, you'll get a decent distribution but if you want buy or exit, wait for a turn in the commodity. | 2007-02-21 | |
| DON'T BUY | 12.260 | Robert Lauzon | A gas weighted royalty trust. Would prefer Zargon (ZAR.UN-T) or Focus (FET.UN-T) because of their longer reserve life and lower debt multiples. Has a pretty good hedging program in place. | 2007-01-22 | |
| Comment | 11.640 | Michael Simpson, CFA | Very highly weighted to natural gas. He is bullish on natural gas for 2008, but there will be short-term weakness. If your horizon is less than a year, he wouldn't hold. If you have a longer view, then it is a good hold. Distributions could be in danger. | 2007-01-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | 14.610 | Ben Cheng | Gas weighted. Gas prices have been improving. Prefers other gas focused names such as Enerplus (ERF.UN-T) Arc Energy (AET.UN-T) Focus (FET.UN-T) and Shining Bank (SHN.UN-T). | 2006-12-01 | |
| SELL | 14.200 | Robert Lauzon | Very short reserve life. A high beta play on natural gas. Limited growth opportunities because of government trust rulings. | 2006-11-24 | |
| BUY | 12.980 | John Stephenson | Lower reserve life and 100% gas focused, but have been doing this for 23 years. The bigger bet is on gas prices rather than survivability. If gas prices stay at this level or go higher, this is a name that you might want to add to. | 2006-11-16 | |
| BUY | 13.110 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Management has done a good job and got some good properties. Facing closer to the 30% than the 20% tax obligation for trusts. Gas oriented. | 2006-11-10 | |
| DON'T BUY | 17.580 | Robert Toole | The most natural gas weighted trust out there. Based on his views of natural gas, this has a favourable outlook longer-term. Has a relatively short reserve life. Prefers more conservatively run trusts. | 2006-10-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | 16.150 | Robert Lauzon | They have cut distribution this year. It is 100% gas. It has a short reserve life. Best to go with another name. | 2006-09-29 | |
| DON'T BUY | 19.740 | Garth Jestley | Basically a gas play. High payout ratio. | 2006-08-11 | |
| HOLD | 18.010 | Ravi Sood | Gas weighted. With their distribution cuts now out of the way, it is probably a decent entry point. Not the best trust to play a turnaround in gas prices. | 2006-07-21 | |
| BUY | 18.550 | Michael Sprung | A very good company. Well-managed and well positioned in the energy area. A good long-term investment. | 2006-07-18 | |
| BUY | 17.900 | John Stephenson | A good mid/long-term (6/12 months) hold. A shallow gas type of trust. You won't see a big pop in it right away. One of the better, lower cost trusts. | 2006-07-10 | |
| DON'T BUY | 19.230 | Robert Lauzon | Almost 100% natural gas. Has hedged some of its production into 2008. We are going into 3/4 months of fairly weak gas prices. Has a higher payout ratio at about 80%. Rumours of distribution being cut. | 2006-06-02 | |
| HOLD | 18.120 | Ben Cheng | 100% natural gas. There has been a substantial decline in natural gas prices in the last 6 months. At $6 MCF we are probably near the bottom. If normal weather pattern's return, the demand will go substantially higher. | 2006-05-19 | |
| DON'T BUY | 18.890 | David Cockfield | Not his favourite trust. Prefers the multibillion$ oil/gas income trusts. | 2006-05-15 | |
| DON'T BUY | 20.000 | Gavin Graham | Has not been holding its own. Off 9/10% this year. Has a short reserve life. One of the casualties of the high grading of the income trust market. Good yield at 14.5%, but a riskier trust. | 2006-05-03 | |
| WEAK BUY | 21.290 | Patrick Kim | For the braver investor. It will be quite volatile. Payout ratios quite high. Have some assets with very high decline rates and their efficiency numbers in replacing some of those reserves has not been great. Have put a lot of money into drilling this winter which gives it some potential for some very good news to come out in Q1. | 2006-04-21 | |
| BUY | 19.950 | John Stephenson | This has hedged 47% of its production at $10 or more. Very clean balance sheet. Huge land base. | 2006-04-05 | |
| DON'T BUY | 20.140 | Michael Sprung | Would put this in the middle of the range of energy trusts. Fairly valued right now and would prefer at a lower price. | 2006-03-23 | |
| DON'T BUY | 19.310 | Sandy McIntyre | Paramount Energy Trust has done a good job over the years of maintaining production with a short RLI asset base. He has been bearish on gas for the past few months and this is 100% gas weight. Not in his portfolio but will own it at the right time. He likes Penn West, it is his third largest holding . It is an oil and gas trust with a great reservoir. | 2006-03-05 | |
| DON'T BUY | 22.000 | Garth Jestley | The reserve life index is very short at about five years where the average is about nine years. This leaves very little room for error. | 2005-12-02 | |
| DON'T BUY | 21.140 | Kevin Hall BComm, CFA | Has had some past issues with the Alberta, particularily with their production around the oil sands. For a natural gas play, would prefer a Focus Energy (FET.UN-T) which has a much longer reserve life index. | 2005-10-28 | |
| BUY | 20.040 | Greg Guichon | 100% natural gas. Raised the distribution and with their hedging can continue the increase through to 2007. Management has a long history in oil/gas and he really likes them. | 2005-10-21 | |
| DON'T BUY | 20.980 | Ravi Sood | He is currently shorting. Has gas exposure. Doesn't think it's going much lower, but thinks it will underperform the other gas weighted trusts. | 2005-10-14 | |
| HOLD | 20.750 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | High payout ratio. Likes the assets, but have suffered a bit over the gas over bitumen issue. Very gas orientated which has good prospects in front of it. | 2005-09-02 | |
| BUY | 20.400 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Has a good sustainablility of its distribution plus its cap ex. The 2nd quarter was in line with analysts estimates. Mainly gas. Reasonably priced. | 2005-08-15 | |
| HOLD | 17.780 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Has reasonably good payout ratio of just over 100%. Has some very good assets. Well managed. Not sure there's a lot more room on the upside. Good one to hold. | 2005-07-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | 17.490 | Matt Baillie | Got some back from the Alberta government over the closure of some of its properties. Not one of his favourites. Not growing organically. Pure gas play and a short reserve life. Still has to prove itself. | 2005-01-27 | |
| WEAK BUY | 17.570 | Rob Callander | Has its problems with a gas issue. Avoids what he considers the more risky trusts. Prefers blue chip stocks this year. | 2005-01-25 | |
| BUY | 16.100 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Has performed very well recently. Well managed. In spite of their low reserve life index, expects they will continue to grow it. | 2004-12-29 | |
| DON'T BUY | 16.310 | Robert Lauzon | 100% natural gas and they don't hedge much of their production. Highly volatile. Reserve life is only about 5 1/2 years compared to 9.7 years for the industry. | 2004-12-24 | |
| BUY | 16.240 | Ben Cheng | Believes it will be able to maintain its distributions, if not grow it a little as long as natural gas prices remain above $6/$6.50. | 2004-12-17 | |
| BUY | 15.210 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Has been one the best performing trusts. Well managed. Expensive right now. Lower payout ratio which is good. | 2004-11-05 | |
| DON'T BUY | 15.850 | Garth Jestley | Relatively short reserve life. | 2004-10-29 | |
| DON'T BUY | 16.290 | David Cockfield | Hasn't been a favourite as their asset base was too concentrated. Has had a good recovery. Average in reserve life. Prefers larger companies with lots of assets in various areas. | 2004-10-14 | |
| BUY | 16.300 | Greg Guichon | A gas weighted trust. Good management. Waiting for the Alberta government to come to some kind of reconciliation. Should happen in the next six weeks. | 2004-10-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | 15.910 | John Stephenson | A little highly levered. Has had some production issues. | 2004-09-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | 14.100 | Peter Brieger | It is not a very good buy. | 2004-09-02 | |
| BUY | 14.320 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | Has had a good move in the last 6 months. | 2004-08-25 | |
| WEAK BUY | 14.600 | Charles Dillingham | Comes well recommended. Just started buying recently. There is a dispute with the use of their gas. | 2004-08-20 | |
| HOLD | 14.350 | Ross Healey | Given the general trend of energy prices, not a trust to worry about. Not a fan of income trust. | 2004-08-16 | |
| WEAK BUY | 13.290 | David Cockfield | Should do OK. Still has too many eggs in too few baskets. Acquisition of Cavell should help. Reasonably priced. Prefers the larger trusts. | 2004-08-10 | |
| DON'T BUY | 13.510 | Peter Brieger | Reserve life index is only five years or less. Prefers 9/10 years. Would prefer Peyto, Focus or Shining Bank. | 2004-08-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | 13.790 | David Cockfield | Distributions have just increased so there was a spike in the stock price. Wouldn't be surprised if it pulled back from here. Feels it is a little too narrow in its focus of its assets. | 2004-07-26 | |
| DON'T BUY | 13.900 | Blair Wilson | Has made an acquisition, so it has come back. Concerned about the valuation. | 2004-07-22 | |
| HOLD | 11.640 | David Cockfield | Alberta Energy Board designated a large amount of their property as heavy oil sold gas was limited. Management is not too bad. Decent yield. Fully priced. | 2004-04-26 | |
| DON'T BUY | 10.000 | Peter Brieger | Not a fan.Very short reserve life. | 2003-08-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | 9.970 | Glenn Paradis, BA, CFA | Ran into some shut-in problems with the Alberta government.Wouldn't invest in the hopes that they will win. | 2003-08-13 | |
| SELL | 8.700 | David Burrows | Have been locked out of some gas fields by the Alberta government. A lot of holders are waiting for a bit of a rally and then will sell their shares. | 2003-07-02 | |
| DON'T BUY | 9.060 | Garth Jestley | Alberta Energy Board has closed off a lot of their gas. | 2003-06-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | 8.970 | David Baskin | Got sideswiped by the Alberta Energy Board. Don't see the situation getting resolved very quickly. | 2003-06-16 | |
| DON'T BUY | 8.940 | Rob Callander | An announcement by Alberta of closing off much of their source has sent the stock tumbling. | 2003-06-05 | |
| DON'T BUY | 13.250 | Sandy McIntyre | Short reserve life. Difficult to price. | 2003-05-07 | |
| BUY | 13.050 | Glenn MacNeill, P.Eng. | 78% gas oriented. Should do well. | 2003-05-01 | |
| WEAK BUY | 13.250 | David Cockfield | Short reserve life, but a high gas content. A higher risk income trust. | 2003-04-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | 12.730 | Sandy McIntyre | Targetting an 85% payout ratio. Reserve life is only about 5.5 years.Concerned about issues of separate ownership of bitumen rights versus gas rights. On their watch list. | 2003-04-17 | |
| TOP PICK | 12.750 | Kyle McKay | Announced a distribution of .83 for Jan/Feb/March. Expects an announcement of monthly distributions which should be .25/.27 which would equal a yield of 25%. | 2003-04-16 | |
| DON'T BUY | 12.800 | Peter Brieger | Reserve life is too limited. | 2003-04-10 | |
| DON'T BUY | 12.800 | Kevin O'Leary | Short reserve life. Will have to make new acquisitions. A good point is that management owns 49%. | 2003-04-10 | |
| SELL | 13.040 | Brian Prokop | Could be time to take some profits. 5 year reserve life. | 2003-04-03 | |
| DON'T BUY | 13.240 | John Priestman | Great management/balance sheet. Reserve life should be 10 years and this one is only 5.. | 2003-04-02 | |
| WEAK BUY | 13.300 | Ben Cheng | Has performed well because of high gas prices. Doesn't hedge so gets advantage of higher prices. Has a short reserve life. High yield. | 2003-04-01 | |
| TOP PICK | 13.950 | Brendan Kyne | Bullish on natural gas. 21.5.22% yield. Safe. Stable. | 2003-03-26 | |
| WEAK BUY | 12.750 | Sandy McIntyre | Short reserve life, but good prospects. 100% gas. Sound assets. May be too expensive. | 2003-03-06 | |
| HOLD | 13.000 | David Baskin | Next quarter results should be up due to high gas prices. | 2003-03-04 | |
Experts that have talked about Paramount Energy Trust
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