STOCKCHASE

Took a flier years a go and is still licking his wounds. They need $85 oil just to make debt payments. Doesn’t see any reason to be optimistic in the future. Might short it.

2011-06-06

SELL

0.680

Can go to zero or maybe $2. If the performance of Long Lake doesn’t improve considerably, they’ll run out of cash by the end of the year. He would be inclined to Sell.

2011-01-17

WAIT

0.640

James Hodgins

Have a stake in the Long Lake oil sands project. Has disappointed quarter after quarter and year after year. A lot of debt on the balance sheet. Currently in a tax loss-selling period, so there could be a rebound in January when you should consider selling.

2010-12-21

DON'T BUY

0.560

Not in great shape. Heavy oil extraction plant has not lived up to expectations. Will have to raise money in the next 6 months, which probably means more dilution.

2010-12-17

DON'T BUY

0.860

James Hodgins

Has been a serial disappointer in that their SAGD technology to give much lower production costs didn’t deliver. Highly speculative

2010-11-15

HOLD

0.830

Jim Huang

Has been disappointing of the Long Lake project has been turning out for them. Having to put in a lot more steam than what they expected. Getting better but not back to what they wanted. Have to get over the timing for paying their debt, which they are doing, but it is diluting the shareholders. If you own, not worth selling.

2010-09-30

Comment

1.030

Mason Granger

Shares have been particularly weak over the last couple of months because they did a fairly large debt deal. Company has piled on a massive amount of debt onto their capital structure. Have 35% interest in the Long Lake project, which has struggled.

2010-08-31

DON'T BUY

1.070

Michael Decter

In a very tough spot. Maybe it will get turned around but it's a very speculative situation at this point.

2010-08-16

DON'T BUY

1.690

Potential takeover candidate but any acquirer would realize the Long Lake reservoir has been disappointing. Nexen (NXY-T) is the operator and has 54 submersible pumps trying to bring up more production but it is very slow.

2010-07-23

DON'T BUY

1.870

Douglas Kee

It’s a roll of the dice thing now. Production coming on a lot slower than people expected. Cash burn is still going on. They may pretty themselves up for a takeover. They have to do something by year-end.

2010-06-02

DON'T BUY

1.870

When the financial crisis hit, they weren't able to get financing. Cash flows were not coming in so couldn't get access to the capital markets.

2010-05-28

PAST TOP PICK

2.270

Ben Cheng

(A Top Pick April 27/09. Up 67.6%.) 8.25% Bonds due Dec 15/2014.

2010-05-12

DON'T BUY

1.890

Has had for some time. 35% stake in long lake. There have been problem with long lake since the get go. They had problems with water in the reservoir. This is a name that will probably get taken out.

2010-03-05

SELL

1.950

Andrew McCreath

Owns bonds but wouldn't touch the stock with a 10 foot pole. He is not Short because it is too volatile. You probably have a window of opportunity to get out of the stock on Monday because they are giving an operational update on Tuesday. Thinks it will disappoint.

2010-02-05

SELL

1.920

John Zechner

Long Lake project has really not worked out. Had trouble getting production up and the steam injection right. Costs have gone a lot higher than expected. They don't have the ability to fund much further development.

2010-02-01

HOLD

1.930

Jim Huang

Junior partner with Nexen (NXY-T) in the Long Lake oil sands project and is in production. Production is behind schedule because of mechanical issues so were in trouble with debt covenants. Managed to mitigate it so they should be okay over the next year or so but really need to get the operating issue fixed.

2010-01-29

DON'T BUY

1.900

Mason Granger

35% non-operating interest in the Long Lake project. Struggling. Now have ability to generate 230,000 barrels of steam and put it into the ground but only getting back 60%-65% of the water sold their reservoir is challenged. Debt is an issue.

2009-11-03

BUY

2.570

Martin Hubbes, CFA

It’s a long-term project and there is a lot to be learned. He went for Nexen, the other side of the partnership, because there’s more cash flow support. OPC is an excellent long-term opportunity. Technology they bring to the table is great and maybe they would be a take-out target.

2009-10-21

WAIT

2.570

Don Lato

Had production problems. Appear to have made some progress, but along the way had to an equity issue at a very distressed pricing level. It’ll be a crucial 6 months. Speculative buy, or wait.

2009-10-21

Comment

2.150

Laura Lau

Very challenging for them. They only have one project, Long Lake. Currently are down and she expects this to be for a month. Steam generating is the lifeblood of this project and it will be in the dead of winter in Fort McMurray. High debt and they are not making money.

2009-09-30

DON'T BUY

1.980

Mason Granger

Has been trial by fire. Did a fairly poor job of getting the SAGD project up and running. Time will tell if upgrader will function at full rates. Layered in a lot of debt. Surface issues in terms of water treatment and ability to generate steam. Just received a covenant waiver, which will probably buy time into the 1st quarter of 2010. Very little wiggle room.

2009-09-24

HOLD

2.150

Alexander Lane, B Comm, C

Frustrating stock. Balance sheet problem and getting enough steam into the ground to get enough oil out. Project is solid, technology works. Wait and see if we can get the steam issue resolved. Their upgrader is built and has value.

2009-09-22

BUY

2.200

Oil sands with a 40-year project life. Built and in its ramp phase. There are complications as you get to the ramp phase. Just did an overhaul of their water and injection facility and over the next few weeks he expects they will be back on track. Had some balance sheet issues that they resolved with an equity issue. Very volatile.

2009-09-21

WATCH

1.670

Joanne A. Hruska, CFA

Had a lot of debt. Raised some money but the debt levels are still higher than what she would like. You have to keep watching to see that operationally they keep moving in the right direction.

2009-09-14

PAST TOP PICK

1.550

(A Top Pick Aug 22/08. Down 91.23%.) Sold most of this but still has a little for himself.

2009-08-21

Comment

1.550

Alexander Lane, B Comm, C

Doesn't like the company's prospects. The only reason to hold is if a bid emerges and it gets sold. Nexen (NXY-T) would be the logical buyer.

2009-07-24

DON'T BUY

1.570

Veronika Hirsch

Not a fan. Think they will eventually resolve start-up issues but if you want to play on the resolution of the start-up issues, why not play through Nexen (NXY-T), which owns half of the oil sands project along with their other assets.

2009-07-17

BUY

1.600

Dennis Da Silva

(Market Call Minute.) Looking for a recovery in oil prices and with their addition of new water handling he expects some wrap up in production finally.

2009-07-16

Comment

1.600

Jim Huang

Has great assets and are partnered with Nexen (NXY-T) on their Long Lake project. This continues to lag expectations in production and costs. Being a small company they are running out of money. Could work out their issues in 12 to 18 months.

2009-07-16

DON'T BUY

1.890

Ara Nalbandian

Has become significantly leveraged with $2 billion in net debt with its market cap being about $400 million. They are in desperate need to raise capital. This is the kind of situation he likes to avoid. Operation at Long Lake is taking longer than originally anticipated. High risk.

2009-07-03

SELL

1.870

Bill Carrigan

If you own, you got bushwhacked by a secondary offering. He would reduce holdings but wouldn't buy more.

2009-07-02

Comment

1.990

Offered shares at less than the going price last week. TSX stopped but he thinks the deal will still go though. The deal will ensure the company has adequate funds to ramp up production, which should peal out around Nov-Dec. If the deal goes through then the stock will be a Buy.

2009-06-29

DON'T BUY

1.990

Stock price dropped because they made a secondary offering to institutional buyers at about 20% below current stock price. Thinks was completed today. Partnered in the Long Lake project. A SAGD project so the production is not what it should be. He prefers others.

2009-06-29

DON'T BUY

2.110

Michael Sprung

Talking about doing an issue, which has affected the stock price. The issue will be very dilutive. Not sure where they are going to go.

2009-06-26

PAST TOP PICK

2.600

(A Top Pick June 16/08. Down 89.57%.) Had expected oil to stay north of $100. Got caught up in the financial disaster. Continuing to bring on production at Long Lake.

2009-06-24

DON'T BUY

3.350

Charles Lannon

On resource stocks he looks for asset diversity as well as a low-cost structure so that they can ride the inevitable oscillations in such a cyclical industry. This one is the absolute antithesis of that.

2009-06-12

HOLD

3.370

A bit financially incumbent but does hold a very significant part of the asset, which Nexen (NXY-T) also holds in the oil sands. Thinks it is a takeout situation eventually. Speculative.

2009-06-10

HOLD

3.370

New president is solid and will move the company forward. Completely revamped as they no longer operate Long Lake. Big issue is operational performance, i.e., getting the steam and getting it into the ground. 100% linked to the price of oil.

2009-06-01

SELL

3.450

In situ oil sands production. Have had quite a bit of operational difficulties. If you own, consider taking some money off the table.

2009-05-20

DON'T BUY

3.450

Huge debt load and we are in a debt crisis. It could be a take-out any day of the week and it could go up 100% but you are 100% speculating that this is going to happen. Costs are very expensive.

2009-05-19

Comment

3.110

Craig MacAdam

New CEO is a very astute dealmaker. Still has a lot of challenges for its balance sheet. Has that repayments due and he is not sure how they're going to do it. Ramp up is not going all that well. If they can get over the financial hurdle, there is a long resource that is worth significantly more than what it is trading at. A lot of risk.

2009-05-14

SELL

2.880

Jeff Parent B. Eng. FCSI

Started to recover, but has done so too quickly. At the moment it looks like it is in a pullback. If you own, consider taking some profits and buy back in at around $2.50. To continue to rally, it has to break through $4.25.

2009-05-13

DON'T BUY

3.810

Steve Carlin

In the current oil price environment, its projects are still in tough shape. They have a strong partner in Nexen (NXY-T) but their balance sheet is in pretty rough shape.

2009-05-12

TOP PICK

0.020

Ben Cheng

8.25% Bonds due Dec 15/2014, Now seeing 22% yield.

2009-04-27

SELL ON STRENGTH

2.280

Joanne A. Hruska, CFA

Takeover speculation driving price. She does not buy stocks strictly for a takeover. If credit crisis continues they may have trouble.

2009-04-15

Comment

1.660

Don Lato

Opti Canada (OPC-T) and Nexen (NXY-T) are in partnership on an oil sands project in Alberta. Project has been bereft with problems in terms of getting production up to speed and getting costs in line. Has been a lot of speculative money coming in, particularly with Opti, in the last couple of weeks. Some debt commitments coming up.

2009-04-08

Comment

1.590

Jean-Francois Tardif

(Market Call Minute.) High-risk oil sand stock. If you have the patience, this will be worth more later.

2009-04-07

DON'T BUY

1.840

This company got stuck with cost escalations without having any real base so the stock collapsed last year. Thinks they will find it hard to get out of the box they are in. Would rather buy an in-production oil sands business.

2009-04-06

HOLD

1.170

Veronika Hirsch

Kind of an option on oil sands with something good happening between Suncor (SU-T) and PetroCanada (PCA-T) and people chasing after Nexen (NXY-T).

2009-04-02

Comment

1.280

Dennis Da Silva

CEO was the driving force and he is leaving so speculation is that the company is for sale. Disposed of 15% of their Long Lake oil sands project. Nexen (NXY-T) would be the logical buyer. May have to re-drill some of their well pairings, which is a big capital cost. Can you handle this?

2009-03-26

DON'T BUY

0.900

Michael Decter

Prefers PetroBank. Got out of it. Can extract oil without putting an open pit mine in.

2009-03-24

Comment

0.900

Gavin Graham

Nexen (NXY-T) owns a controlling stake in this. A proven asset that is now coming into production. He would rather own something that is producing.

2009-03-23

DON'T BUY

0.880

John Zechner

Trading on a big discount to its NAV. Would rather play this through Nexen (NXY-T), which has a bunch of their position on the Long Lake project and will continue to grow. Doesn't want to own stocks where company needs a lot of financing just to complete existing plans. (See Top Picks.)

2009-03-16

Comment

0.720

Disappointing on the production side. The story has been awful. A lottery ticket that could go either way. Has enough cash to get through the year.

2009-03-06

DON'T BUY

1.600

Don Lato

Has run into a lot of problems, both with the price of oil and operationally. Have been delayed in production out of a joint venture production with Nexen (NXY-T). Costs have also been higher than expected. Hoping for a pop so he can get out.

2009-02-11

DON'T BUY

1.600

Don Vialoux

1) Technically it seems to be straight lining, which is not a good sign. If it did start to perk up and move above the trading range, this would imply there might be life after all. 2) Seasonally, you're getting to a period where it should do very well. 3) Fundamentally it has financial difficulties.

2009-01-30

Comment

1.500

Steve Carlin

All companies out West with exposure to oil sands projects have very high exposure to oil prices. At $40 oil this is not worth the current stock price. At $50 he sees about $1.50 and so on. Can see a tiny bit of upside, but not a lot. Also have obligations going forward and with a $60 oil price they do not have enough to meet those obligations.

2009-01-23

DON'T BUY

1.870

Currently up against the ropes. Recently sold 15% of its interests in Nexen (NXY-T) in the Long Lake project. If it can continue to skate on side and not have the banks foreclose, it is potentially a 4 to 5 bagger from here. Also could be zero. Lottery ticket.

2009-01-02

HOLD

1.800

(Market Call Minute.) In the throes of distress in the oil sands.

2008-12-31

DON'T BUY

1.770

Got caught in the dramatic in oil prices. Too high a risk.

2008-12-05

DON'T BUY

2.130

Lottery ticket. If things work out it's worth $10. If not, it's gone. Long Lake oil sands project is not as good as Syncrude’s and others. Upgrader is being commissioned right now, so is essentially ready to go. Even at $70 oil, there is no chance of them meeting their debt covenants for the first three quarters of next year.

2008-12-03

DON'T BUY

2.570

Paul Harris, CFA

Big difficulty with a lot of these small oil sands plays is where do they get their capital. With oil at these levels, it is hard for them to get capital. There are many other plays in the oil sands that are more viable.

2008-11-27

HOLD

3.210

Operationally it seems to be very interesting. Eventually it will be take-out material. In a general sense, he is negative on the commodities for the time being.

2008-10-31

Comment

3.210

A good company but got caught in the crunch with the tar sands. Looks cheap but the cost factor in the tar sands may be much more of a factor than people realized.

2008-10-31

Comment

2.750

Financial uncertainty with the upgrader being delayed, which increases costs. Also have had a slower ramp up in their SAGD productions. Cash flow has been reduced. Fundamentally, if you can hold through this kind of risk, there is a first-class asset. 45 SAGD wells that are all in production. Risky.

2008-10-30

Comment

11.300

The real risk of their Long Lake project is, does it work. In the oil sands, until it is up and running, you don't know. They don't know what their operating costs will be yet. It's a unique project but you'll have to wait to see if it works.

2008-09-18

TOP PICK

17.780

Oil sands is everything in terms of oil production in Canada. Will start producing from its Long Lake this year. Trading at a massive discount to its NAV. Highly likely it gets taken out.

2008-08-22

TOP PICK

18.210

De-risking of Long Lake, their oil sands piece. Thinks it’s an acquisition target. Dirt-cheap. Will be producing by the end of this year.

2008-08-06

HOLD

20.250

(Market Call Minute.) Just getting production going right at the moment. His short-term outlook for crude is soft.

2008-07-18

TOP PICK

22.320

An oil sands name that is about to start producing. Trading at a discount to NAV of about 42%. Expects this will be acquired.

2008-07-16

BUY

23.610

Have the Ormat upgrading technology in the oil sands. She likes to play upgrading technologies as a portfolio in order to spread the risk. These would include Opti (OPC-T) and Petrobank (PBG-T) and Ivanhoe (IE-T).

2008-06-19

TOP PICK

24.920

Oil sands producer. Been in the penalty box because of disappointing pilot results. Now have 30 well pairs steaming away. 35% discount to net asset value. Will probably get acquired. Cheap.

2008-06-16

BUY on WEAKNESS

22.860

In situ oil sands producer. Operates SAG-D and also has a upgrading capacity that it is building with it. Expected to be on production very shortly. Has some unique technology. Rather than purchasing gas to make steam, it will use waste products out of their upgrading facility. Very crude oil price driven.

2008-05-16

BUY

22.410

Have been putting steam in the ground for quite some time and are starting to turn some of their injectors into producers at Long Lake. Not exposed to natural gas prices as they have technology that allows them to burn their heavy and create a synthetic gas to produce steam. Early stage production. Great long-term hold. If you are bullish on oil, a good stock to own.

2008-05-13

BUY

19.850

For a play on a small cap name in oil sands, you are better to go with a near term producer such as Opti (OPC-T) or UTS (UTS-T).

2008-04-25

BUY

19.410

Tar sands extraction. Well run company. Good equipment. A nice hold for the next couple of years.

2008-04-24

BUY on WEAKNESS

21.050

Joanne A. Hruska, CFA

Recently had a big move so you should wait for a pullback. Starting to get past the risks. There will be a lot of volatility.

2008-04-14

BUY on WEAKNESS

16.850

Dennis Da Silva

Using the OrCrude technology with Nexen (NXY-T) as its partner is. Still a risk factor. How will it operate on a full-scale basis? Going into steam process by the 3rd quarter, possibly the 2nd. 80% done on their upgrader. You want exposure to these technologies in appropriate portions. Don't have it as a core position.

2008-02-25

BUY

17.200

Trading at a significant discount to NAV.

2007-09-26

BUY

21.050

Great entry point. It's Long Lake phase 1 is coming along. You'll see production coming at the end of this year. The best of the “prospective” plays.

2007-08-21

BUY

23.400

Ben Cheng

Could be an acquisition target going forward.

2007-07-23

WAIT

24.050

Joseph Schachter

Very leveraged to the high price of oil. The price of oil may go up a little bit more in the near term, but usually in the fall there is a correction in the price. Wait for a correction.

2007-07-20

WAIT

22.790

An oil sands play with its own up grader. Have some unique technologies. Good value. These things take longer than expected so there will be some entry points down the road. Wait a while.

2007-05-09

BUY

22.250

Have started steam injections in their SAG D operations. Why have production in the 3rd quarter. Takeover is a possibility.

2007-04-30

BUY

19.940

This is considered a Hold category moving to a Buy category because oil sands production is ramping up now.

2007-03-27

Comment

19.980

They have a new process, which generates gas from the base of the bitumen, fire it up, and they don't have to use gas from the top. It will be interesting to watch.

2007-02-22

BUY

17.740

Jean-Francois Tardif

If an international company wants to own oil that is geographically safe, there is not much to buy. Expect more takeovers in 2007. He prefers companies that are already producing such as Opti (OPC-T) and Western Oil Sands (WTO-T).

2007-01-10

DON'T BUY

17.800

Would be more inclined to put money into Suncor (SU-T) or Western Oil Sands (WTO-T) because they are more of a sure bet.

2007-01-05

DON'T BUY

17.080

Could be a takeover target, but a lot of that is baked into the price. Prefers companies that have proven, established operations.

2006-10-12

DON'T BUY

20.080

John O'Connell, CFA

A big oil sands play. There has been a lot of activity in this area. This is a good one, but would stick with the big names were there is a lot of liquidity.

2006-08-25

BUY

19.780

A heavy oil producer. Own 50% of the Long Lake project in the oil sands. Has some unique technology that allows them to use their own gas, a by-product of the refining process, to produce heat for their production.

2006-08-23

DON'T BUY

22.180

An oil sands player that, instead of using natural gas, they will burn the crud that comes out of the oil sands. They have the rights for Canada. It has to be shown that it works. Not Conservative enough for his funds.

2006-08-01

WAIT

22.240

Fairly valued at this point. It has to prove its SAGD technology that it’s known for. Needs to be better known as a technology entity.

2006-07-10

BUY

45.810

Paul Harris, CFA

An interesting story. They have partners to help build out the oil sands. You need to own an oil sands play. Should be a major player. Not cheap, but none of these oil sands are. Buy for the long-term.

2006-01-20

BUY

34.550

Shauna Sexsmith

They use a gasification process by creating gases out of the bituman, and uses this gas to create steam to get SAG (steam assisted gravity) which takes the costs down substantially. Very unique in the oil patch.

2005-11-16

DON'T BUY

41.750

Ross Healy

Fairly hard to calculate a FMV for the company, so doesn't own. Would be considered as a speculation as opposed to an investment as a result of this.

2005-09-14

BUY

29.600

Dean Orrico

If you are a believer in oil/gas and strong commodity prices, this is one way to play the oil sands. Higher risks as they are just in the process of developing.

2005-07-29

TOP PICK

20.490

John Zechner

Oil Sands is a great long term value. $30 is the worst you are going to see oil, but will most likely be $40/50. The project with Nexen is starting to come on. Trading at a good discount to its net asset value. You can buy and put it away for the long term.

2005-01-31

DON'T BUY

18.350

Robert Lyon

Doing a joint project with Nexen. Looks fine, but feels from a valuation perspective looks a little bit expensive.

2005-01-11

BUY on WEAKNESS

18.200