| DON'T BUY | 26.160 | Ron Meisels | 200 day moving average is currently falling. Broke below it in October of 2007. Not yet ready. | 2008-06-19 | |
| BUY | 28.360 | Norman Levine | Compared to their competition they have some sweetheart deals in Alberta for their raw material, mostly natural gas. Looks like it has bottomed for now and the yield is OK. | 2008-06-13 | |
| BUY | 28.700 | John O'Connell, CFA | (Market Call Minute.) Likes the story very much. | 2008-05-15 | |
| Comment | 25.370 | Ravi Sood | Has been a real disappointment. There has been fabulous performance from virtually every basic material stock in the TSX while this one has lost people money over the last several years. There is a lot more by you than what the share price shows. Could possibly be a takeover at some point. | 2008-04-21 | |
| Comment | 29.810 | John O'Connell, CFA | Has come under a lot of pressure recently. A very difficult business to time properly because of petroleum prices moving around. At this price, it's a name that he would have a look at. He has been thinking about buying it himself. Very volatile. If you own and it got up to the $35/$36 area he would be a seller. | 2008-03-03 | |
| Comment | 26.520 | Gordon Higgins, CA, MBA, CFA | They use natural gas to make ethylene for producing plastics. They have sold off because all of their products are economically sensitive. Trading at 8X earnings, which is low. If you believe there is going to be a recession, you do not want to own a deep cyclical company such as this. | 2008-01-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | 32.330 | Michael Sprung | Being impacted a lot by the strong Cdn$. Feedstock and energy prices going forward will be a big worry for them. There is a fairly tight styrene market, but have not been able to pass the increased prices on. An extremely hard company to read. | 2007-11-06 | |
| HOLD | 38.490 | Michael Sprung | You have to think about the feed stock prices on this. Has some good cost advantages based on their location in Alberta. Earned $2.05 in 06 and is estimated to earn $2.10-$2.15 over the next couple of years. | 2007-08-31 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 35.360 | Bill Carrigan | (A Top Pick Sept 15/06. Down 4%.) Still likes. Surprised it had dropped as far as it did. Thinks it will be okay. | 2007-08-20 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 35.350 | Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI | Seems to be stuck in a trading range and could see a downtrend to its lower support level. Would wait and you may be able to get it a little bit cheaper, hopefully $32-$33 range . | 2007-01-30 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 35.100 | Michael Sprung | (A Top Pick Feb 2/06. Down 13.3%.) Reviewed it after it had fallen about 10% and concluded that assumptions about expanding margins on the ethylene side where wrong. Sold his holdings. | 2007-01-29 | |
| TOP PICK | 31.590 | Bill Carrigan | (A Top Pick Sept 15/06. Down 13.4%.) In a sector he would like to be in next year as he is nervous about the market. Likes industrial. Input costs are going down. | 2006-12-20 | |
| DON'T BUY | 31.760 | John Zechner | Balance sheet got so over levered so this affected their dividend. Earnings are extremely volatile. Very thin margins. Downside risk. | 2006-12-12 | |
| BUY | 33.240 | Gavin Graham | As an advantage with cheap gas, but had some operational problems at its plants. Good price and you could see some decent upside from this point. | 2006-10-30 | |
| DON'T BUY | 32.990 | Chris Smith | Trying to fix itself. Chemicals are having a hard time getting any credibility right now. | 2006-10-25 | |
| SELL | 33.070 | David Baskin | Doesn't like them very much. Being buoyed by cheap natural gas for the moment, but with the slow growth in the US for chemicals, not a good place to be. | 2006-10-23 | |
| TOP PICK | 36.600 | Bill Carrigan | The A, B, C correction is over. We are now into deep support. Doesn't think it will go lower. | 2006-09-15 | |
| WEAK BUY | 35.760 | Peter Gibson | If you needed to be in this section, this would be better than Agrium (AGU-T) or Potash (POT-T) but this is not as strong recommendation. | 2006-08-18 | |
| DON'T BUY | 34.090 | Bruce Campbell | Their input is natural gas and you would think with the lower prices it would be better for them, but margins got squeezed on the downside. This is a cyclical company that you would start to worry about. | 2006-08-10 | |
| HOLD | 32.430 | Michael Sprung | He bought this on the prospects that ethylene and polyethylene prices would increase however, buyers have hesitated in building inventory. He is hoping for a bit of a recovery. | 2006-07-18 | |
| WATCH | 30.700 | Brian Acker, CA | His model price is $39 and has dropped as earnings estimates have come down. As a positive differential of 26%. Looks interesting, but the fundamental value is eroding with the earnings. | 2006-06-19 | |
| SELL | 31.850 | John Zechner | Thinks we are heading to a point in the cycle where there is downward pressure. US analysts downgraded the chemicals in the US. Feedstock costs are rising. | 2006-06-07 | |
| DON'T BUY | 32.470 | David Baskin | A cyclical company. If you believe that the US is heading into slower times, now is not the time to be in a cyclical chemical company. | 2006-06-06 | |
| WEAK BUY | 33.550 | David Baskin | Affected by natural gas which is their biggest input, as well as the price of plastic in the aftermarket. Should be making lots of money right now, as natural gas prices are relatively low. This has a commodity type of risk which you have to be aware of. | 2006-05-25 | |
| BUY | 36.420 | Bill Carrigan | This is commodity sensitive and has been hurt by rising costs. It is right on the long-term support level. It is probably not a bad place to be. Do not let it make a 52-week low. | 2006-05-02 | |
| DON'T BUY | 32.330 | David Baskin | If natural gas heads back up towards $12/14, the question is how fast can they pass on their costs. Probably not fast enough. On the other hand, if they global boom continues, demand will increase and they have the ability to meet that demand. An unfavourable risk. | 2006-04-18 | |
| DON'T BUY | 33.270 | Gordon Higgins, CA, MBA, CFA | A pure play on commodities. You have to be careful. Chart it has pulled back but looking at the long-term chart, is back to its previous lows. | 2006-04-05 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 33.290 | Brian Acker, CA | He feels it has to go to $29.60 and would be a big buyer there. Earnings estimates have been coming down and his model price has been coming down although it is still at $45.21. You could buy a small position at this price. | 2006-03-29 | |
| SELL | 32.070 | David Chapman | It has just broken down through a pattern of lows which has been playing out through the last year. Likes chemical companies, but you don't want to own this one. | 2006-03-28 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 33.120 | Michael Sprung | (A Top Pick Dec 7/05. Down 22%.) Has been a disappointment. Ethylene prices have been firm but buyers have been balking at paying these prices. The company is going to eventually make good money and he is looking for it to recover. This is a good entry point. | 2006-03-23 | |
| BUY | 35.570 | Gavin Graham | Have had a lot of problems with hurricanes, plant breakdowns, etc. but it should come around. An overlooked play. Their gas supply is much cheaper. On his watch list to see if they can recover. | 2006-03-20 | |
| DON'T BUY | 36.860 | Ross Healey | Nova Chemical has good value and a lot of potential. Investors don't like what they see as the stock is breaking down. Not a stock he would like to hold. | 2006-03-16 | |
| DON'T BUY | 36.970 | Ron Meisels | The stock did very well for a while. Now it has fallen and unable to get above the 200 base day moving average. Stay away from it for now. | 2006-03-02 | |
| VAGUE | 38.950 | David Driscoll | Follows natural gas prices. | 2006-02-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | 39.270 | Gordon Higgins, CA, MBA, CFA | Looks a little ahead of itself. Be cautious. | 2006-02-21 | |
| BUY | 38.240 | Gavin Graham | The company uses natural gas to make its chemicals. Currently, their stock price is 45-60% down. However, this company has an advantage in that it's gas is $0.01/.02 cheaper than others. They had some problems with their plant in Sarnia as well as some tornadoes in Alberta and thus lost their fourth-quarter profit. They should do better in the second half of the year. May not be a bad time to look at it. | 2006-02-10 | |
| TOP PICK | 40.500 | Michael Sprung | A very misunderstood stock. Had a plant that was closed for maintenance which was extended. Right now ethylene and polyethylene prices are doing very well. Feels the margins are going to expand. Can see them earning $5/6 this year. | 2006-02-02 | |
| WAIT | 39.500 | Gavin Graham | Hit by a number of problems in the last few years. They are also in a squeeze from the rising price of gas. Once they get their Sarnia plant back on, things should improve. On his watch list. | 2006-01-31 | |
| WATCH | 36.550 | Bruce Campbell | Have looked at this one when it’s been down. Their input is natural gas and if gas prices continue to stay weak, they should be able to come to grips with their costs. He is watching this one but it's a little too early to buy yet. | 2006-01-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | 36.850 | David Baskin | The chemical companies are getting squeezed between rising raw material costs and lower margins because of a difficulty in raising their prices to their end users. | 2006-01-19 | |
| HOLD | 37.100 | Brian Acker, CA | Has a model price of $51. Under a little bit of pressure at this time. They've been shaving the earnings estimates which is why it's been going down. Thinks it's close to a pop here. | 2006-01-17 | |
| HOLD | 39.290 | Gavin Graham | Came off a lot in the spring because of higher gas prices. There were a couple of big storms in Alberta that knocked off a couple of their plants which will make its numbers looked bad this year. | 2005-12-29 | |
| BUY | 39.570 | Brian Acker, CA | He has a model price of $51.68. A 32% differential.b | 2005-12-21 | |
| DON'T BUY | 39.570 | Bruce Campbell | Natural gas is the feedstock so there is a lot of worry that they cannot pass this on to their customers quick enough. Looking at natural gas prices, this stock does not look good in the early part of 2006. Wait for a couple of quarters. | 2005-12-21 | |
| BUY | 40.230 | David Baskin | Probably OK at this price. Really very sensitive to the price of industrial chemicals. Because of the price of natural gas, they are subject to being squeezed on the margins. | 2005-12-19 | |
| DON'T BUY | 43.820 | Peter Gibson | Doesn’t look very good. | 2005-12-09 | |
| TOP PICK | 44.100 | Michael Sprung | Right now, ethylene margins are really getting strong. Where they were $0.16 a pound, they are now approaching $0.20. Could be earning $6.50 by next year. 2006/2007 are said to be the cyclically strong years for this company. | 2005-12-07 | |
| BUY | 44.550 | David Baskin | Chemicals are a cyclical business. Probably offers a pretty good entry point at this price. | 2005-11-08 | |
| HOLD | 42.320 | David Baskin | Prices for the products of chemical companies went through the roof last fall and winter. Supply caught up with demand and pricing settled back. Natural gas prices right now are at record levels chiefly because of shut down of production in the Gulf of Mexico. | 2005-09-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | 40.040 | Laura Wallace | Looks fairly expensive on the earnings they are generating today but a little more reasonable if we look at the longer term earnings expectations. A very volatile company and chemical pricing in particular is very volatile. Prefers other commodity sectors, such as metals. | 2005-08-24 | |
| BUY | 39.410 | Ron Meisels | Had a selloff early this year and broke below the 200 day moving average. You know that the stock sold off because of some negative event, so wait for the day of the announcementwhich is usually the time the stock is going to start to make some kind of return. As long as it holds the roughly $37 area, it would be a good time to step in. | 2005-07-07 | |
| DON'T BUY | 41.070 | Ron Meisels | Got out of this one when it broke through the 50 day moving average at around $57/58. It is now trying to make a base around $37/39 and believes that the same 50 day moving average that created the sell will be exceeded on the upside at which time it might be ready for a trade. | 2005-06-14 | |
| BUY | 38.400 | Gavin Graham | Feels the chemical stocks have been the overlooked cyclical's material play. The price of all of them is going up. Have the advantage of Alberta's cheap gas. Good price. | 2005-06-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | 39.200 | Bill MacLachlan | Cyclical. You have to look at energy prices to get a handle on this company. Really a one trick pony. Has limited upside at this price. | 2005-05-17 | |
| BUY | 37.510 | Peter Gibson | Likes the name a lot. Has the same risk across the board for the materials sector, i.e. economic slowdown. If you are buying for a longer term hold, you could buy now, or wait until labour day. | 2005-05-13 | |
| WEAK BUY | 39.600 | Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | Has reached a point where support could be developing, but can't say for sure that it's going to hold here. A reasonable risk/reward. | 2005-05-11 | |
| BUY | 41.800 | Brian Acker, CA | On cyclicals he is not allowing for any value increases. Can be volatile but can see a 22% upside. | 2005-05-05 | |
| DON'T BUY | 41.000 | David Burrows | Chemicals are pretty cyclical in nature. There has been some pricing weakness in the polyethelene/ethylene markets which this company is a major player in. Prefers buying stocks when they are moving up, so this wouldn't be one they would be interested in right now. | 2005-05-03 | |
| BUY | 42.200 | Gavin Graham | Likes this sector. A cheap way to get into the resources sector. This applies to Agrium (AGU-T), Potash (POT-T), Nova Chemicals (NCX-T), or Methanex (MX-T). | 2005-04-26 | |
| BUY | 43.830 | David Taylor, MBA, CFA | Pulled back and is a Buy opportunity. Had done exceptionally well and then, because of high oil costs, tried to put a price increase through, but because of high inventory levels, customers wouldn't buy. Stock had fantastic 1st quarter results. Believes the chemical story is still in its infancy. | 2005-04-25 | |
| BUY | 48.170 | Ron Meisels | Just fell through its 200 day moving average. Had a parabolic move in 2004 with everybody getting excited about a breakout. When it has such a leg, it needs a correction. It has had a 1/3 correction which generally means a good time to get in when people are panicked. | 2005-04-11 | |
| BUY | 48.170 | David Baskin | Starting to look like a compelling buy. Stock went up a lot due to industrial demand for chemicals. It was really riding the resource driven wave. Started to see some weakness when people became concerned about high interest rates. Pretty good value now. | 2005-04-11 | |
| STRONG BUY | 49.210 | Ross Healey | Has pulled back to some pretty good support. The upside potential is just huge. | 2005-04-07 | |
| DON'T BUY | 50.400 | John Zechner | Have a good advantage in terms of their feed stock costs as they have a lot of cost for service regulated feed of raw materials in Alberta. The short term problem is that a few analysts have downgraded chemicals in general. Have a debt laden balance sheet. Coming towards the peak in this cycle. | 2005-04-06 | |
| HOLD | 51.660 | Norman Levine | Has come off with the energy complex, with the cyclicals. Had a great run and just corrected. Feels the economy is strong and this would be a HOLD. | 2005-03-31 | |
| BUY | 55.720 | Ray Steele | The biggest chemical producer in Canada. Chemicals are a commodity that are in demand globally. Well positioned. A low cost producer. Have some long term contracts. Outlook is positive. | 2005-03-17 | |
| VAGUE | 55.000 | Norman Levine | Stock has basically doubled in the last year and profit taking has probably been the reason for the recent drop. | 2005-03-16 | |
| BUY | 62.000 | David Baskin | Cyclical business. Rising, not yet at top of gain | 2005-02-28 | |
| BUY | 62.090 | Laura Wallace | Chemical cycle still has a run well into 2006. | 2005-02-28 | |
| BUY | 57.650 | David Taylor, MBA, CFA | Big fan of the chemicals and owns Nova Chemicals (NCX-T) and Lyondell (LYO-N). Prefers Lyondell over Methanex MX-T). | 2005-02-02 | |
| BUY | 52.800 | David Burrows | Overall, over the next few years, There's not much capacity in styrene, so feel it will be less cyclical. There is still some risk. | 2005-01-12 | |
| WEAK BUY | 57.770 | John Zechner | Q: Chemicals or oil? A: Would prefer an oils tock such as Talisman as he is more bullish on the oil commodities than he is on the chemicals. Chemicals have had a great move. Not sure there is that much left in the cycle. | 2004-12-21 | |
| TOP PICK | 52.850 | David Burrows | Pricing for styrene is very strong. Will take abot 4 years for new capacity to come on line. Overseas demand is growing. Chemicals are typically later cycle companies to own. | 2004-11-17 | |
| HOLD | 52.500 | Ron Meisels | Has plenty more on the upside. Well above the 200 day moving average. Might be a pull back in the short term. | 2004-11-16 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 52.880 | Bruce Campbell | Has moved sharply on the last few months. A cyclical with polystyrene and ethelyne prices moving sharply which they can pass on. Earnings should go from $1.25/1.35 to $5US next year. | 2004-11-15 | |
| DON'T BUY | 48.990 | Ian Nakamoto | Excellent management. May be a little rich now. Consider buying on dips. | 2004-11-02 | |
| WEAK BUY | 46.920 | Laura Wallace | The balance sheet's a little levered. A good company and has done really well. Have an advantage over competitors with their cheaper Cdn natural gas. | 2004-10-20 | |
| HOLD | 46.620 | Robert Floyd | A late cyclical and this is the stage where the chemicals perform very strongly. | 2004-10-19 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 45.800 | Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | Strong sector in the last few months. Pretty strong trend. Still some upside potential. Try to get closer to $40. | 2004-09-20 | |
| SELL | 45.760 | Bill MacLachlan | If you own, start taking money off the table. An intensely cyclical stock. | 2004-09-16 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 42.650 | Blair Wilson | (A Top Pick June 15/04. Then: $36.50) Further upsides, which it is believed to be in company's future. | 2004-08-31 | |
| SELL | 42.770 | John Zechner | Balance sheet is little bit stretched. Good target for this stock is 40-50 dollar area. Company is in that area now so sell it. | 2004-08-30 | |
| SELL | 42.680 | Glenn Paradis, BA, CFA | The value for stock will increase higher. Things can change really quickly. Recent run-up for 10% in last few weeks. | 2004-08-26 | |
| BUY | 42.270 | Ron Meisels | Major breakout yesterday, which is continuing today. It has been fighting 40 dollar area for a long time. This means there is a major buy interest. | 2004-08-24 | |
| TOP PICK | 40.000 | Blair Wilson | (Past top pick June 15/04. Up 11%.) Still likes. Demand for plastics and consumer related commodities from China continues to be very strong. A trading oriented stock. | 2004-07-22 | |
| TOP PICK | 36.350 | Blair Wilson | High risk/volatile stock. Demand for chemicals should be strong. | 2004-06-15 | |
| DON'T BUY | 38.750 | David Driscoll | His valuation on the stock is in the $10/12 range because they are extremely leveraged to both feedstock costs (gas and oil) but also interest rates. With an improved economy, they should do OK. Better opportunities elsewhere. | 2004-06-08 | |
| DON'T BUY | 34.000 | Mark Jackson, CFA | Price increases on their costs will put pressure on margins. Fully valued | 2004-01-08 | |
| HOLD | 33.660 | Norman Levine | Likes the petro-chemical companies because the pricing is improving. Feed stock is natural gas which is quite volatile, but a good type of stock to own. | 2003-12-04 | |
| BUY | 29.300 | Richard Stone | Came out with some good earnings. | 2003-09-10 | |
| WEAK BUY | 29.540 | David Cockfield | Owns preferreds but no common shares. Has had a bit of a tough year. It will continue to move along. | 2003-08-28 | |
| DON'T BUY | 26.990 | David Baskin | Needs an economic recovery in US and Europe. | 2003-07-23 | |
| DON'T BUY | 26.720 | Peter Arender, CFA | Trading above what its worth. Negative earnings. | 2003-07-22 | |
| WAIT | 26.000 | Lou Schizas | Seems to have a lot of support in the $25 range. Expecting a break even this year, but an improvement in 2004/2005 and up to 2007. Might be a good entry point. Trading below its 50 and 200 moving averages. Wait for the trend line to start moving up. | 2003-07-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | 25.450 | Brian Acker, CA | Not a fan. Earnings are erratic. | 2003-07-14 | |
| DON'T BUY | 27.400 | Eric Bushell | Just sold their interest in Methanex which helps the balance sheet, but still has some issues. Economically sensitive. Has a lot of competition from offshore producers with lower operating costs. | 2003-05-28 | |
| BUY | 30.990 | Laura Wallace | If the economic growth comes as expected, it will be very good. Also holds the largest methanol producer Methanex. | 2003-05-12 | |
| BUY | 28.700 | Nereo Piticco | Numbers just came out and there were no disappointments. Good cyclicaL company. Not expensive. Should be a good performer over the next 6 to 9 months. | 2003-04-23 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 28.060 | Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | In a basing pattern. Wait for it to start to recover. | 2003-03-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | 30.460 | Ben Stadelmann | Cyclical. If oil prices drop, the stock woul do better. | 2003-01-21 | |
Experts that have talked about Nova Chemicals Corp.
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