STOCKCHASE

Fundamentals are good and it is only down because of fears in the market. Good for the long-term.

2008-09-26

BUY

26.500

Michael Decter

Has a lot of positives. Montney exposure, Long Lake is starting up this month and a North Sea discovery. Prefers Encana(ECA-T) and CNQ (CNQ-T). Not a bad entry point.

2008-09-23

Comment

26.190

Lyle Stein

Long-term, oil is not a bad area of the market to be in. An investment in this would offer a pretty good reward over the next 2 to 3 years. Speculation in oil on the upside has now come out. Price to cash flow is 3.5 times, which is very reasonable.

2008-09-09

BUY

30.680

Has a 50% interest in the Longview SAGD project with an upgrader facility. Undervalued.

2008-09-02

BUY

33.280

Peter Gibson

Loves the stock. 92% chance of outperforming the market. 37% ROE and rising at a rapid rate. Well sourced. One of only 8 companies out of 69 that have such good sourcing and profit growth. Also likes the sector.

2008-08-29

BUY

33.280

Stephen Carlin

A bit of a “show me” stock right now. They have to get the Long Lake project going. One of the cheapest oil companies in Canada. Fundamentally it is going to do really well this coming year. Excellent production growth.

2008-08-29

PARTIAL BUY

30.850

Last quarterly report was a little disappointing. Some of their production numbers where a little weaker than expected. As well, there was a weak energy price. Think it’s getting a little bit overdone on the down side but it could still come down little bit more before it finally starts to base out. Would be tempted to add a little bit.

2008-07-23

BUY on WEAKNESS

34.050

Oil driven. 50% ownership of Opti Canada (OPC-T), which is starting production and is one of the real benefits of owning it. A large part of their production comes out of the North Sea. Try to buy in the $30 range.

2008-07-18

Comment

32.950

Veronika Hirsch

There is a strong feeling out there that something should be done about this company. When you take out the trading losses, their numbers where bang on. Stock is cheap enough. Expect there will be a push to sell the company or break it up.

2008-07-17

PARTIAL BUY

32.950

Bill MacLachlan

Missed their earnings estimates sold the stock dropped. Little riskier than some of the senior energy stocks because of its international focus. This means market is going to punish it more when it doesn't perform. Very well run company. He would Hold for the long haul and would be tempted to add a little to a position.

2008-07-17

TOP PICK

39.390

Peter Gibson

Going to be tough to invest in the last 1.5 years of this cycle. Oil and gold will generally be extremely volatile. 32% ROE. Phenomenal profit growth. Great fundamentals. PE is 11.9X’s.

2008-06-27

PAST TOP PICK

41.390

(A Top Pick Aug 8/07. Up 36%.) Had been really cheap. Brought on Buzzard in the North Sea, which has been a real cash cow. 50% of the oil sands play, Long Lake looks like it is finally coming of age.

2008-06-16

BUY

41.390

David Burrows

Great assets in the North Sea and in North America. Growing production profile.

2008-06-16

BUY

38.920

Stephen Carlin

Great company. Likes Buzzard, their North Sea property where they will be generating the highest cash margins of any company. Started steaming some of their Long Lake wells and the upgrader will be operating this summer so will be ramping up production in the next 3/4 months. 40 year asset.

2008-06-03

BUY

38.930

Q: If you bought this, would you pair it with a Bear ETF? A: No because this stock would hold up better than average. It is a little bit cheaper than average. He can make a case for a $45 NAV even with lower oil prices. Probably the 2nd Canadian candidate to split up.

2008-05-26

BUY

40.670

Q: Would you Buy this and HBP Nymex Oil Bear (HOD-T) in case of a downside in crude? A: Neat pair trade, but would all the upside you get from Nexen be offset? In terms of price to cash flow this company is somewhat cheaper than others because it’s in places like Yemen.

2008-05-20

BUY

38.790

A very interesting play. Have massive resources. Very well positioned for growth. Could be a takeover target.

2008-05-15

DON'T BUY

34.900

Came in with earnings that were better than expected. Very strong ROE. Development at Long Lake is ramping up. Have a fairly good production profile going forward. Trading at a pretty full multiple with earnings in the $3-$4 range and cash flows around $6.50 to $7.50.

2008-04-30

BUY on WEAKNESS

35.450

Thought the news on the company was actually quite good. Has shown some really good production growth out of Buzzard.

2008-04-29

BUY

35.980

David Baskin

This is not his favourite. He would prefer Talisman (TLM-T), which has better prospects going forward and better pricing. Benefiting from the high prices right now and not a bad choice.

2008-04-22

BUY

32.650

Probably the most likely of the non-oil sands seniors to be taken over. Good production growth coming. Good mix of oil and gas. Good international plus a bit of oil sands as well. You get a bit of everything with a whole bunch of 10% or 15% production growth years on the horizon. That's better growth than a lot of the big seniors.

2008-04-11

BUY

31.540

John Zechner

Good variety of larger projects that are coming on stream in the next couple of years. Have an interest in the Long Lake project. Valuation is low relative to the rest of the group.

2008-03-06

BUY

32.340

A lot of people have been wondering if they are ever going to get it together. Have had some production disappointments. Part of the issue is their bid on the small side to take on some of the bigger projects, so maybe they are stretched a little thin. There is a ton of potential in this stock and it is finally going to have its day.

2008-03-05

HOLD

29.700

Dennis Dasilva

(Market Call Minute.) Had a bad couple of years and he is having difficulty seeing the growth. Maybe a takeout at best.

2008-02-25

Comment

29.340

David Baskin

Nothing wrong with this one, but he prefers others such as an integrated like Petro Canada (PCA-T), explorer/producer like Talisman (TLS-T) or gas producer like Encana (ECA-T).

2008-02-19

BUY

28.560

He has a model price of $38.76. That's about a 38% positive differential.

2008-02-07

BUY

28.180

Very attractive. At some point, the large international companies will be looking to get into countries where they have more security of supply and where there is upside in the drill bit. It may take 2 years for the markets to realize the value of these companies.

2008-01-24

TOP PICK

32.100

David Taylor, MBA, CFA

Was one of the worst performers in 2007 among North American large cap producers. Now trading at 40% discount to NAV and the beauty is, about 30% of the assets are not producing cash flow right now. Going up 5.5X cash flow.

2008-01-10

SELL

31.970

Not one of his favourites. He would be inclined to do a switch. Doesn't see a lot of excitement in 08 on the production side.

2007-12-21

BUY

31.170

Has a lot of value. His model price is $41.41 giving it a positive differential of 39%.

2007-12-20

DON'T BUY

28.770

Not one of his favourite plays. Capital budget has been reduced significantly. The market has moved the stock to the level that reflects the decline in budget. A lot of their big projects are winding down, so they need to find something new.

2007-12-11

DON'T BUY

29.080

Not his favourite at the moment. Have cut way back on their capX. Their production in Yemen and the North Sea backed off last year. In a relatively low growth period. You would be better with Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) or if you feel positive about natural gas, look at one of the big gas producers.

2007-12-07

SELL

28.420

Joanne A. Hruska, CFA

Oil weighted. Budget for 08 shows flat production over 07. She would sell this one and switch into something similar such as Suncor (SU-T) or Canadian Oil Sands (COS.UN-T), which would still give you oil exposure.

2007-12-05

BUY

29.060

Prefers Talisman (TLM-T) but this is still a name you can buy. Could be a takeover candidate. Has solid properties but has had some disappointments in production.

2007-11-12

BUY

31.180

He has a model price of $42.25, a 32% positive differential.

2007-11-01

VAGUE

30.380

Dennis Dasilva

Was like Petro Can was last year. Q3 reflects continuous disappointments for 2007. They have lost some market confidence. Has many concerns. He thinks you want to own it for long lake, and the significant potential for cash flow there. But there might be better ones out there.

2007-10-30

DON'T BUY

29.900

Has come down recently. Predictions of cash flows in the neighbourhood of $6 this year and next. Their production profile is positive. Delays have plagued operation.

2007-10-26

HOLD

29.900

Stephen Carlin

Reported numbers that had investors frustrated. Most attractive large cap oil company from a price appreciation perspective. Has more upside potential than Su-t.

2007-10-25

HOLD

29.400

He owns and likes it but wait another quarter or a dollar or two down as the entry point.

2007-10-24

Comment

30.200

Good company. Large global asset base. Good to own stocks with international exposure outside of Canada.

2007-10-11

BUY

29.900

Fell off because 1st quarter was not as good as expected in the Buzzard field and 2nd quarter had delays at Long Lake with their partner Opti Canada (OPC-T). Expects very strong production growth, mainly from Buzzard, on the order of 37%-38% over the next 12 months. Trades at a significant discount to NAV.

2007-09-26

WAIT

30.300

Brendan Kyne

Oil sands stocks have suffered because of proposed Alberta increases in royalties. Until there is a definitive response by the government, there is going to be a cloud of uncertainty.

2007-09-24

DON'T BUY

29.530

Main problem is they keep disappointing with delays at their Long Lake assets. 3X book value looks fairly expensive to him.

2007-08-31

BUY

28.700

This one was close to being his Top Pick. His model price is $36.90, a positive 28% differential. He feels the bottom is around $27.70. Earnings estimates have been coming off but not enough to warrant any big concerns.

2007-08-30

BUY

29.280

Present price represents very good value. It is trading as though oil was $80.

2007-08-27

TOP PICK

28.990

Very attractive valuation. You're getting it at a discount to its net asset value. Very strong production growth, especially out of the North Sea, and expect it will continue to grow.

2007-08-21

Comment

29.430

Bill Carrigan

Way below the 200 day moving average. Feels it is severely oversold. Doesn't feel crude oil will do much for a long time so this may be a speculative type of purchase. Getting close to its 52-week low. When you hit your first 52-week low, you can be pretty sure you will get another one.

2007-08-20

BUY

28.840

Has been hit hard. Likes the story. Cash flow is growing. Their Buzzard project is on. Their heavy oil project Opti is coming on next year. Could be a takeover candidate.

2007-08-17

TOP PICK

31.040

A value stock. Cheap. Trading at about 35% discount to NAV. Good production growth in the order of 30% to 35% this year.

2007-08-08

BUY

32.790

Chyanne Fickes

Trades in line with the other oil companies. Not a bad buy at this price.

2007-08-02

BUY

33.080

Has come off during this market turmoil. Good price. Some offshore exposure, which is a good attribute.

2007-07-31

DON'T BUY

32.490

Bill Carrigan

Energy has been in a bear since 2005. If the market does become a bull in energy, he doesn't think there will be a lot of upside.

2007-07-30

BUY

32.490

An oily international senior. Probably the most likely senior to be taken over.

2007-07-30

HOLD

35.550

A fabulous stock. Buzzard is a fabulous asset. There is usually a correction on the price of oil in the fall and that would be the time to Buy.

2007-07-20

BUY

33.770

He has a model price of $40.73, a 22% positive differential.

2007-06-21

TOP PICK

33.480

Big sell because oil went down, but Nexen has got growth and the oil sands.Biggest risk is political problems, but they are well spread out over several countries.Paid in the high 20's.

2007-06-15

BUY

32.470

Dean Orrico

This is a buying opportunity. Large cap blue chip player. Has natural gas, oil sands producer. Lots of upside in this name. Just be patient, it will do well in the long term.

2007-06-14

HOLD

31.610

Bill Carrigan

Get a stop loss in. Watch a group of oil stocks to see where the direction is.

2007-06-13

BUY

31.610

Ron Meisels

It may be construed as moving down. The 200 day moving average, is flirting with the price, but the other way of looking at it, is that the stock is in a narrow trading range. He likes that view. Which means that when the energy stocks get moving (which he believes will happen) this stock will also get on the upside.

2007-06-13

DON'T BUY

32.000

Laura Wallace

Latest quarter earnings disappointed because production was below expectations, costs where higher then expected, and more diversified globally.

2007-06-08

BUY

31.840

Charles Lannon

Likes the company. Is going to trade with the price of oil. If you think oil is going up then it will as well.

2007-06-07

STRONG BUY

32.670

He likes it. A disappointing quarter, but it's cheap, trading at a discount to it's net asset value. And very strong production value going forward.

2007-06-06

BUY

32.790

Likes it a lot. Thinks it could be $40 in Q4 2007/2008. A lot of upside. It's a laggard, but thinks it will now catch up.

2007-06-04

HOLD

32.790

Peter Brieger

Fairly priced here.

2007-06-04

HOLD

32.450

Operations are very strong. His outlook for oil/gas is bullish.

2007-05-30

HOLD

31.880

Has some very attractive assets. Prefers Petro Canada (PCA-T).

2007-05-29

SELL

31.900

Has not reached a level yet where he would consider it a Buy. Have costs pressures with some of their raw materials that the use in production.

2007-05-28

BUY

33.100

Laura Wallace

Good Canadian oil company. A reasonable holding.

2007-05-23

BUY

32.900

Brendan Kyne

Fits into the category of a seasonal oil/gas play. Expects a relative out-performance curve in the next little while. This can include Nexen NXY-T) Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) and Talisman (TLM-T).

2007-05-10

PAST TOP PICK

33.160

(A Top Pick Sept 8/06. Up 9.3%.) Was an overlooked intermediate. Pretty fully priced and he has taken some money off the table.

2007-05-09

HOLD

67.920

Don Vialoux

Gorgeous technical chart. A lot of new production coming on stream over the next 12 months.

2007-05-05

BUY

68.000

Model price of $71.48 Just bought. It will fluxuate, don't worry about it.

2007-05-02

BUY

66.050

35%-36% undervalued. Biggest disappointment in the earnings release was the Buzzard in the North Sea, which is a little slower to ramp up. Has been overlooked.

2007-04-30

HOLD

67.880

Brought on Buzzard in January, which pushed the stock up. Over the next couple of years, large international players are going to have to make acquisitions.

2007-04-24

BUY on WEAKNESS

72.130

Buy below $70. Good value stock. Trades roughly at 5 X its 07 cash flow and less than 5 X its 08 cash flow. Have excellent projects in front of it. 50% interest in the Opti (OPC-T) SAGD project.

2007-04-04

TOP PICK

70.050

Trading below its net asset value. Showing great production growth from Buzzard, which he doesn't think is factored in to the price. Currently producing 100,000 barrels a day, which will double in the 2nd half of 2007. Cheap.

2007-03-27

Comment

64.450

Hasn't been discounted quite as much as some of the others in their sector. Recent earnings reported were bit disappointing, but forecasted earnings are for $5’s and even $6 for 2008. Forecasted cash flow of $15 puts them at just over 4 X cash flow. Prefers others.

2007-03-16

BUY

65.010

Came out with some very good numbers.

2007-03-15

BUY

64.030

Has production coming on in the North Sea in the Buzzard field. Feels we are in a longer-term secular bull market. Good price.

2007-03-06

BUY

64.030

Was a rumour that Total (TOT-N) would buy them for $90. Could be plausible. Very solid management. $70 might be a little rich but current price is interesting.

2007-03-06

PAST TOP PICK

69.720

Bill Belovay

(A Top Pick Feb 16/06. Up 21.3%.) Expected to continue to perform pretty well. Has good assets.

2007-02-15

HOLD

73.340

There is a rumour that Total (TOT-N) will buy it out at $90. This is the reason for the move. Not totally convinced that this will happen.

2007-02-05

DON'T BUY

71.950

Has been on fire recently. Recently spiked on speculation that France’s Total SA may be an acquirer of it. Other names look much more reasonable.

2007-01-25

DON'T BUY

74.770

John Manley

Had a big break out in the last little while and is looking very strong. Would be little nervous jumping in at this time. If you are looking a little longer term, Covered Calls could be an interesting concept.

2007-01-24

WATCH

72.280

Jim O'Shaughnessy

Possible takeover target. If you own, wait and see.

2007-01-23

WEAK BUY

69.340

John Zechner

In the event of a bounce in the price of oil, Suncor (SU-T), Talisman (TLM-T) and Nexen (NXY-T) would be 3 companies that would have good leverage.

2007-01-22

PAST TOP PICK

64.260

(A Top Pick Sept 8/06. Up 3.1%.) Has some production coming on in the North Sea in the Buzzard field, which will have a huge impact on them.

2007-01-16

BUY

62.000

Kyle McKay

Trades at a discount to its group. The Buzzard field just came on which should give and 35% -45% increase in production.

2007-01-08

BUY on WEAKNESS

63.570

A long-term hold, but not his favourite E&P company. Good quality assets and trades at a reasonable multiple. Have some good prospects to drill. If you own, Hold, otherwise look at it under $60.

2006-12-27

BUY

62.110

Ross Healy

Lots of room to go if the market decides to really go for the oils. At about 4 X Book Value, which is a little expensive in terms of oils. Trading at a fraction of his Fair Market Value calculations.

2006-12-04

WATCH

60.250

Alex Ruus

Great oil/gas producer. Among the Canadian seniors they probably have the best growth profile. In the short term, he is cautious on oil, but the medium to long term is tremendously bullish.

2006-11-22

DON'T BUY

59.150

Bill Harris, CFA

Has had a good run lately. Slightly more expensive than the peer group. International suite of assets. Have one of the lowest finding costs in the group but very intermittent. Prefers more consistency.

2006-11-20

BUY

60.140

It has exciting parts to it like Yemen as well as Canada and the North Sea. Could be a take out as it sells at a discount. Well run company and will do pretty well.

2006-10-30

BUY

62.810

Robert Toole

Has a very bullish view on long-term crude prices. Has done a very good job of growing its crude production.

2006-10-27

HOLD

59.750

Predcts that the cash flow will be enormous. Great assets. If you own it stay with it. Should see an upside.

2006-09-29

TOP PICK

61.480

Undervalued. Market has ignored for quite a while. Owns 43% of the Buzzard play in the North Sea which is expected to go on production in the 4th quarter. Also have great assets in the North Sea as well as coal bed methane in Alberta.

2006-09-08

BUY

65.300

Your entry point depends on your view of oil prices. Current price would look good if a hurricane hit. Longer term, there is great growth coming from the North Sea and from the Gulf of Mexico. Valuation looks decent for a long-term hold to 07/08.

2006-08-25

BUY on WEAKNESS

65.750

Involved in a number of very interesting projects as well as 50% ownership in an oil sands project. A good diversified package. Try to buy on weakness.

2006-08-23

BUY

66.470