STOCKCHASE

(Top Pick Oct 14/11, Down 1.9%) Don’t buy right now. Largest shorted stock in Toronto.

2012-01-26

PAST TOP PICK

11.910

Stan Wong

(A Top Pick Jan 13/11. Down 28.49%.) Got stopped out at $14. The announcement that interest rates will continue to 2014 is a negative for life insurers.

2012-01-26

DON'T BUY

12.550

It’s cheap for a good reason. Interest rates over the next couple of years could stall its recovery. Dividend is stable. If you had a 5-year view you would be ok.

2012-01-25

WAIT

11.890

Laura Wallace

Before the crisis people thought they would be the out performers and then in 2008 they became the poster child for not performing. Assuming a better year, that will be positive for them. Reasonable value here. Will be buying it back.

2012-01-12

HOLD

11.570

Michael Smedley

One difficulty is that they have to invest the premiums and if they don’t you get no return. They are now telling agents not to write anything because they can’t do anything with the money. There have been mistakes in the past that we won’t talk about. All you can do is wait and hope that you get a descent recovery later in the year.

2012-01-10

Comment

11.510

John O'Connell, CFA

(Market Call Minute.) Just bought some recently. Highly volatile. $12.50-$13 and he is gone.

2012-01-09

Comment

11.420

If you have a 3-5 year timeframe and you are generally positive on equity markets, then this is probably a decent level. Stock is suffering from mistakes of the past. Decent yield at just over 4%.

2012-01-05

DON'T BUY

11.420

David Burrows

(Market Call Minute.) Have avoided all of the insurance companies. Low interest rates and difficult market make it tough to be a life insurer.

2012-01-05

TOP PICK

10.450

2 big problems for them have been the stock market and the level of interest rates. Doesn’t think there is any way that long term US bond rates are going any lower from here. You could easily see them earning $1.60 a year or two out. Dividend is 5%.

2011-12-28

Comment

10.680

Rick Stuchberry

The problem/question with the lifecos is they have to set aside so much capital they are caught in the actuarial problem of the spread between the bond market and their payout schedules on the policies they have written. As long as the bond market stays down at his very low interest rates, it is very hard for these guys. There is probably a trade here, but for the longer pull there are better places with higher yields.

2011-12-22

TOP PICK

10.250

This is a stock that no longer seems to get any respect, yet over the last 2 years, management have done a great deal to de-risk the company, hedge the exposure to interest rates and equity markets. Have also redesigned a lot of their product mix, which makes him less risky than a lot of their previous products. Continuing to expand on a global basis.

2011-12-19

Comment

10.250

On the plus side, they are making tremendous penetration in Asia selling life insurance. Trading at less than Book Value per share. Probably oversold. All of the insurance companies have the problem that they are reinvesting insurance premiums at record low interest rates, which will continue for at least another 2 years. Life insurers make half their money by investing premiums in bond markets and paying out claims as they come in.

2011-12-19

SELL

10.910

Jason Donville

(Market Call Minute) Business model will not come back strong any time soon.

2011-12-12

BUY on WEAKNESS

11.350

Benj Gallander

Don’t consider selling it. Didn’t like the preferred issue recently. Pays a good dividend. A Company he is watching quite closely. Longer term MFC could do well, but he would like to see it cheaper.

2011-12-06

SHORT

11.200

Right now it looks like a Short as it has broken through a support level.

2011-12-02

HOLD

10.930

If the current rally continues, this company will more than fully participate. Wouldn't commit new money to it but would continue to hold it. Prefers the Canadian banks against the lifecos.

2011-12-01

DON'T BUY

10.930

Derek Webb, CFA

Doesn't like this stock. Earnings are going the wrong way.

2011-12-01

DON'T BUY

10.850

David Burrows

As being a tough performer. Insurance companies are having a hard time. There are 2 things to look at. 1) Do they have growth in their product sales? This company has had some challenges. 2) How do they do on their equity portfolios? The equity market has been wildly volatile. He would steer clear of insurance companies.

2011-11-29

SELL

10.900

Mike S. Newton, CIM FCSI

In a RRIF account. Should he sell? They continued to guide lower on the reserves that they need to come up with. Very large business in China and India. Don't let registered stocks influence whether you sell or not.

2011-11-28

HOLD

10.840

Management, over the last few years, has taken great strides in de-risking this company. Sensitivity to equity markets and interest rates is a lot less than what it was in 2008. Has also built up their capital.

2011-11-25

DON'T BUY

10.770

Stan Wong

Hit a 52 week low today. Earnings expectations are declining on this and other insurance companies. Below the 52 week average.

2011-11-24

DON'T BUY

12.040

Andy Nasr

Doesn't own any of the insurance companies. They fund their liabilities through their investments. With equity markets being volatile and interest rates low, results have been pretty bad. These are a leveraged bet on the capital market. You are better off with banks because you at least get better dividends and more safety.

2011-11-11

DON'T BUY

12.010

Insurance company invests life-premiums into bonds. Long bond yields are at record lows making it very difficult for them to make money on their portfolios. This copy is selling more life insurance in Asia and have mostly hedged their exposure to the stock market but difficult to see any buoyant prospects for insurance companies when the bond yields are so low.

2011-11-10

DON'T BUY

12.110

Keith Richards

Had a breakdown in 2008 and has been in a downtrend for the past 3 years. Has formed any kind of a base yet.

2011-11-09

WEAK BUY

12.770

Was a 2% position but now is less. Underlying business is fine and growing well. The necessity of marking the market because bond prices are low is the problem. 4-5% downside risk both here and in the states. He would buy it here if you want something in this space.

2011-11-08

PAST TOP PICK

12.790

Joey Mack

(A Top Pick Sept 30/10. Up 5.91%.) Still likes.

2011-11-04

Comment

13.110

Benj Gallander

Just reported a huge loss. When interest rates and stock markets go up they'll do better. Likes the stock but not cheap enough for him to buy. Would prefer it around $10.50.

2011-11-03

BUY

12.420

Lorne Steinberg

Has dealt with bulk of issues that got them in trouble. Great Asian operations and at this price, a ton of upside in this stock.

2011-11-01

WAIT

13.020

Steve Carlin

Been a tough one. All life insurance cos. are exposed to interest rates. They put in significant hedges, but they can’t come out from under the low interest rates. You will have to wait a while before you see growth. It is not an emphasis in his portfolio. Wait 6, 9, or 12 months at least.

2011-10-26

DON'T BUY

12.770

Colin Stewart

Sun Life (SLF-T) just reported quarter earnings and weak guidance. This illustrates that in volatile periods in equity/fixed income markets lifecos have a difficult time hedging their portfolios. Would prefer the banks instead.

2011-10-18

TOP PICK

0.010

Randy LeClair

Series 2. (MFC.PR.B-T) 4.65%. A perpetual preferred share with a possible call date March 19. Doesn't expect they will call it. There has been a black cloud over this company, which presents a bit of an opportunity. Current yield is 5.38%.

2011-10-17

TOP PICK

12.940

Large-cap stock and ranks well fundamentally. Has been seeing some really nice intraday moves. Has potential to go to the $15 level. Nice dividend.

2011-10-14

SELL ON STRENGTH

12.850

If you have a very long time frame, 5+ years, it is a descent long-term hold. Dividend will likely not increase. If this market rally is sustainable, then this one will participate. Then you could sell it.

2011-10-12

DON'T BUY

11.950

Lyle Stein

A recovery story but to recover, it needs higher interest rates and higher markets. As the cost of capital falls, their long-term payouts rise. Tough time right now.

2011-10-05

DON'T BUY

11.390

He is looking for an opportunity to sell his holdings. If interest rates are kept low for the next couple of years, it will not help this company, which has exposure to the bond market and the equity markets.

2011-10-04

PAST TOP PICK

11.940

(A Top Pick Aug 19/10. Down 0.04%.) All that is needed is for the rates to stop going down.

2011-09-30

HOLD

12.300

Gavin Graham

This has been the perfect storm for insurance companies. With floating stock markets, their assets have become worth less. Also as interest rates go down, the value of your liabilities goes up. There will be substantial recovery when the market improves. Undervalued.

2011-09-29

HOLD

11.490

Greg Newman

Market is really concerned that they will have to do another capital raise. He believes even if interest rates and capital markets go down, they will not have to do this. Asian market is growing. US operations are growing. A lot of the bad news is already in the stock. Dividend is safe.

2011-09-22

BUY

13.000

John O'Connell, CFA

Caller wants to move his large telco holding to a lifeco. Which one would he pick? Feels Manufacturers (MFC-T) has the best potential for a return over a 5-year period. Their products are selling off the shelf like hotcakes. Exposure to Asia is fantastic.

2011-09-07

TOP PICK

13.290

Douglas Kee

Have done a great job of de-leveraging their book from what it was like a couple of years ago. What they need now are higher equity markets and higher interest rates. As interest rates go down, they lose money.

2011-08-29

PAST TOP PICK

12.570

Chyanne Fickes

(A Top Pick Nov 22/10. Down 13.68%.) Sold her holdings at about $17.

2011-08-22

BUY

12.490

Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI

Have put together 3 quarters in a row where they have started to turn around. Finally getting their act together. Great international growth. Well-positioned domestically in North America. Have controlled the market leverage much better.

2011-08-19

DON'T BUY

12.490

David Cockfield

Yield isn't too bad but there is still a bit of a cloud over it. Last quarterly results were excellent and they are working their way out of their problems. Certain amount of market exposure to some of their products. He would prefer Sun Life (SLF-T) or Great West (GWO-T).

2011-08-19

DON'T BUY

13.920

Jason Donville

Now is not the entry point. This is not where an investor should be. It is a value trap. There are a lot of issues that have to be worked out

2011-08-17

BUY

13.730

Don Lato

Just reported great earnings, quite a bit better than the consensus was looking for. Well-positioned in Canada, US and Asia. Once they get beyond the current market conditions, you'll see the growth of the business lead to much higher multiples. Good value.

2011-08-15

DON'T BUY

13.180

Mohsin Bashir

Good numbers in Q2, which they badly needed. Normally they do a readjustment to their actuarial assumptions in Q3 and that could be a one-time charge that will be material for them. He would watch for what that is before he would be comfortable with this as a long-term hold.

2011-08-12

Comment

13.080

Barry Schwartz

Had better than expected earnings but everyone is focused on interest rates and how they are hedged on them. Lower interest rates are bad for their earnings going forward. The underlying business is doing very well. At some point, interest rates will go up and this company will recover.

2011-08-11

SELL

12.500

Paul Gardner, CFA

Held this for a long time but finally sold it recently. Equity risks are now being covered because they are now putting on more hedging. The big drop in bond yields has hurt insurance companies. Dynamics are poor.

2011-08-10

BUY

13.190

John O'Connell, CFA

Good time to load up. Sales are tremendous. Exposure to Asia is a good thing. Problem is the investment portfolio and sins of the past. Will be one of the better performing financial stocks in Canada. Non-bank financials are the place to be.

2011-08-09

HOLD

12.530

It looks like the stock will come back into the $10 range. Last year the company said they needed 2 things for their business plan. They needed both the stock market and interest rates to go up.

2011-08-08

PAST TOP PICK

13.670

(A Top Pick Aug 19/10. Up 15.38%.) Chart shows a low in 09 and another one in 2010 but the second one was a higher low. Has been dropping in 2011 because of QE2, which has put pressure on interest rates. Keep an eye on the US 10 year and watch for the yield to get back up through 3%, 3.5% and so on. Still a Hold.

2011-08-05

Comment

14.570

This is a good entry point for someone with a 2-year outlook. Has a lot of sensitivity to the marketplace and interest rates. New management has worked to hedge this more. Doesn't expect they will have a very good quarter and continued market volatility will impact the earnings.

2011-08-02

DON'T BUY

15.150

Norman Levine

Not a fan. Doesn't like the US operations, which hurt them very badly in the last downturn. There huge acquisition of John Hancock hasn't really worked out that well. Still likes their Far East prospects and their Canadian operations.

2011-07-27

WATCH

15.600

Steve Carlin

Was probably the most leveraged company to the stock and bond market coming of 2008. Have done an incredibly good job of de-leveraging in the last two years. Sees some decent upside potential. He has a $19 target, but is a little nervous on this given where interest rates and where the stock market has gone. $19 would be 18-24 months. Next quarter could be a little dicey for them.

2011-07-26

BUY

15.600

Playing a dangerous game if it is just for the next quarter or two. Tremendous franchise. De-risked balance sheet dramatically. It is one of his largest holdings in that sector.

2011-07-26

BUY

16.110

Douglas Kee

Doesn’t expect a dividend increase any time soon. Struggling through their problems with their GIC portfolios that are levered to equity markets and interest rates. Believes interest rates are going up, which is good for lifecos and over time he thinks equity markets will rise.

2011-07-21

BUY

15.990

Laura Wallace

Good international exposure. Likes their insurance exposure in Asia. Good dividend. Did a good job of restructuring. It will benefit if interest rates go up. Good entry point.

2011-07-15

BUY

16.030

Lorne Steinberg

Sees good upside from here. Hedged some of the risks to the stock market, but not all of them.

2011-07-14

BUY

16.870

Brian Acker, CA

He has a model price of $22.67. A positive differential of 35%. Speculative but would recommend a 2%-3% holding in your portfolio.

2011-07-08

BUY

17.050

Don Lato

Good long-term investment. Ran their equity portfolio/fixed income business unhedged for many, many years. New management is moving to a more hedged position so they can generate more money from the business rather than being subject to the vagaries of the market. Asian exposure is becoming a more important part of the business. 3% yield.

2011-07-07

Comment

16.450

Prakash Hariharan

Fundamentally it is one of the few insurance companies with such a vast capital structure. There needs to be some way to go up from here given the cost of capital. Reported some gains in the short book, which was not noticed by the market.

2011-06-29

DON'T BUY

16.440

David Burrows

If you make the case that Asia becomes very big to them then you buy the stock. He doesn’t own it because the sector is out of favour. From a timing standpoint you are challenged. With low interest rates it impacts their ability to make money. Some of the products they had growth in have not been as profitable as they would have liked. He would prefer something that would really jump when the market gets moving.

2011-06-28

Comment

16.210

Michael Decter

Had a hard look at this one at a lower price but didn't buy because he was worried about transparency on their US liabilities. He would want to see another quarter or two before making a decision. Prefers banks.

2011-06-27

TOP PICK

16.190

Gavin Graham

Their Asian business is a gem and they are not getting full credit for it. This part is larger than their Canadian operations if you include Japan. They're adjusting the problems were people felt they had too much exposure to the stock market.

2011-06-23

DON'T BUY

16.400

Andrew McCreath

Having a great day today because the markets are up a lot but unfortunately this has become a pretty high beta stock. Believes we will continue to see downside pressure on yields in the US, which is not good for this company.

2011-06-21

PAST TOP PICK

15.950

(A Top Pick June 30/10. Up 6.86%.) Still likes. Less sensitive to changes in the capital markets. Likes what management is doing.

2011-06-20

Comment

15.560

Michael Simpson, CFA

If yields rise, this company will benefit. Have been hedging but is only on a small percentage of the overall portfolio. Key growth area for them is Asia. Watching this as it is a bellwether.

2011-06-17

BUY

15.730

Their troubles with the non-hedged exposure to the stock market are largely behind it. There is tremendous growth potential, particularly in Asia. Have a good wealth management business. Quite cheap.

2011-06-16

BUY

15.900

Continuation of the bond market rally in the short term and pressure in the equity market hurts them but if you can stand the volatility in the short term, they are way better hedged now. Could easily double in the next 3 to 4 years. One of the best growth profiles of any North American financial.

2011-06-13

DON'T BUY

15.900

Charles Lannon

Increasing hedging to reduce quarterly earnings fluctuations in the equity market and is the reason for the volatility. Owns their fixed income instruments instead, which are safer. Globally, insurers are quite cheap now because of investors concerns on real estate holdings. Would prefer Power Financial (PWF-T), which owns Great West Life (GWO-T).

2011-06-13

BUY

16.070

Likes it and likes the Asian growth side. They are going to raise the dividend at some stage, perhaps latter half of 2012.

2011-06-07

TOP PICK

16.260

Joey Mack

4.079% Aug 20, 2014 bonds. 3.5% yield currently. Senior debt. Short compared to others.

2011-06-06

DON'T BUY

16.440

Terry Shaunessy

Life insurance companies are supposed to be defensive but this one missed the boat entirely. They then took the hedges off at the bottom of the market. Not going to go down anywhere, it’s just kind of dead.

2011-06-01

BUY

17.090

Last correction was a higher low so he thinks it goes up. In a nice congestive period currently.

2011-05-27

HOLD

17.460

Don Lato

Struggled over last couple of years but are getting act together recently. With hedging program in place they are little less prone to ups and down in the market. Bought more recently. Good valuation. Nothing is going happen here soon. In 3-5 years they will turn things around. Growth is in China.

2011-05-18

TOP PICK

17.210

Pretty much carrying out the plan that Don Guloien laid out for them a couple of years ago. Have de-risked. Last quarter was good. Over time they will get back to the 12%-14% ROE.

2011-05-17

PAST TOP PICK

17.210

Paul Gardner, CFA

Manulife down since May 28 2010(recommended at $17.58 now at $17.16, Total return 0.91% increase), earnings were solid until last quarter, this is a work through story which will probably take a year or two to play itself out.He thinks it will be worth more but not sure when.

2011-05-17

BUY

17.250

Paul Harris, CFA

Market gave it a very high multiple when it was doing crazy things and now everyone hates it when it is doing all the right things. Very cheap multiple and are solving a lot of their issues. Have some really great growth aspects, not only in the US but also in Asia where they are dedicating more capital.

2011-05-13

BUY

17.600

Stan Wong

Just reported and beat their earnings by a large margin. Should continue to do well.

2011-05-12

TOP PICK

17.840

They have probably passed the bottom. They are now about a third Asia, which is growing quite quickly. They are at the end of 2012 target and balance sheet is way above what is regulated. Have enough capital to raise dividend but they will wait.

2011-05-10

BUY

16.800

Brendan Caldwell

Very good way of playing both the stock market and interest rates. One of the few ways to make money if interest rates rise. Also a positive leverage to the stock market with their variable annuities.

2011-05-03

BUY

16.800

Barry Schwartz

Is a long-term sufferer on this name. He likes to buy sticks when people hate the names. People don’t understand what’s going on with MFC. Earnings could reach $2-$2.50 normalized in 2-3 years. Trading near book value. Actively putting new clients into it.

2011-05-03

BUY

17.500

Thinks it’s time to get back in. They’re getting their act together again. Looking attractive. Great international exposure. Thinks it could be earning $2.50-$3 a share in 2 to 3 years without a lot of problem. With a 12 multiple, you are looking at a $30 plus stock along with a dividend.

2011-05-02

Comment

16.820

Benj Gallander

On his watch list. Two major factors will impact this stock. As interest rates go up, the company will do much better as it will help their bottom line. Market movement t will also affect them. Too expensive for him at this point.

2011-04-25

TOP PICK

16.490

Over the last couple of years they made significant strides in hedging out a lot of their risk. We are now in a much better environment for insurance companies.

2011-04-19

SELL

16.450

David Cockfield

Significant dividend but this is a company that has a cloud over it again. When clients bring it in from outside, he tends to eliminate it. He not sure about their equity oriented investment insurance type plans. On a market, which he expects will be indifferent over the next 3 or 4 months, this stock won’t do very well. Their most recent earnings report was a disappointment. Also the Japan situation might come back and bite them.

2011-04-15

Comment

16.460

Derek Webb, CFA

You can write calls to lower your risk.

2011-04-12

HOLD

16.700

Barry Schwartz

Stock has not down well. Just as you think they are heading for a breakout, another issue sideswipes them. Will have to take a write down on their insurance policies in Japan, which was the fastest growing part of their business. Higher interest rates are good for their business and the stock market has improved. Think it has a lot more intrinsic value than the current price. You have to be patient.

2011-04-11

TOP PICK

16.950

Thinks it could move back up to possibly the $20 level. $16 is the exit price.

2011-04-08

DON'T BUY

17.150

Norman Levine

Not positive on this one. Sold his holdings when he discovered it was really a leverage on the US stock market and US bond market interest rates. Would rather buy a life insurance company for their business, not their exposure to interest rates or the stock market.

2011-04-06

PAST TOP PICK

17.010

Paul Gardner, CFA

(A Top Pick Apr 1/10. Down 11.26%.) Deploying its capital properly.

2011-04-05

PAST TOP PICK

17.010

(Top Pick Apr 19/10, Down 10.42%) There is a bit of headwind at $19. Weak today because of a story in the paper today. This stock deserves a higher multiple. In 18-24 months they should be in good enough shape to raise the dividend again.

2011-04-05

PAST TOP PICK

17.370

(A Top Pick Aug 19/10. Up 20.71%.) Technically it should go higher. Likes the sector.

2011-04-01

BUY

16.900

Within a year you could see this stock north of $10. Solidified balance sheet, have all the capital they need. They have more credibility here. Delivered better numbers the last two quarters. Good international diversification. It’s the high-risk play in the financials.

2011-03-29

BUY

17.060

Brian Acker, CA

$24 model price. He still recommends it. Add on any dips.

2011-03-23

PAST TOP PICK

17.120

(Top Pick Mar 16/10, Down 13.90%) Still likes it. Thinks as interest rates and bond yields go up, they will make much more from assets under management. Doesn’t think their interests in Japan are material to their results. Investors are unduly negative on the stock.

2011-03-22

DON'T BUY

16.820

Don Vialoux

Stock has been struggling for the last little while. Resistance at current levels. Out of the period of seasonal strength. Between Oct and Jan is it’s strong time. Different than banks, which are Feb to May. Stay away for now.

2011-03-18

WEAK BUY

16.740

Their exposure to Japan shouldn’t be much. In the short term, he prefers banks over life companies.

2011-03-14

PAST TOP PICK

17.550