| TOP SHORT | 33.340 | Derek Webb, CFA | A lot of the consumer names have recently rallied. He still sees the numbers going down in almost all the financials and all the consumer stocks. The numbers just keep getting worse for this company. Also, when input prices start going up, they are going to skyrocket and that will squeeze the margins. (The average investor should not use shorts.) | 2008-05-16 | |
| DON'T BUY | 32.650 | Bruce Campbell | One of the reasons you may want to own it is because there is $30 a share in real estate value, but that is not the operating business and that would only come to light if they were in distress. It is actually valued quite expensively compared to other stores. Margins of all the grocers are going to get squeezed. | 2008-05-09 | |
| BUY | 31.830 | Michael Sprung | A major large cap stock that has had total capitulation. Making money and has a large underpinning of asset value. Good for long-term investors. Beginning to show signs of straightening around. Most of his exposure is through George Weston (WN-T). Selling at reasonable valuation level. | 2008-04-30 | |
| TOP SHORT | 29.400 | Duncan Stewart | A pairs trade. Going Long on George Weston preferreds (WN.PR.A-T) and Shorting Loblaws (L-T). They cannot get their Information Technology behind them. Out of stock signs are all over the place. Wal-Mart is coming in. Prices are declining. There is no improvement in Canada for the grocery stores. | 2008-04-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | 29.400 | Duncan Stewart | Q: Kroger (KR-N) versus Loblaws (L-T). A: The real challenge for Loblaws is not just the entry of Wal-Mart (WMT-N); they have not spent properly on their IT system. Shelves are not stocked properly and he does not see this changing soon. Departure of 3 top executives indicates the coming quarter is probably going to be quite bad. One of his funds is actually short this stock. | 2008-04-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | 29.340 | Paul Harris, CFA | They had an incredible franchise years ago with very high margins. Now have a lot of competition and will never get the margins that they did historically. Not cheap. | 2008-04-24 | |
| SELL | 29.990 | David Baskin | Seems to have fired anybody over 40, basically anybody that knows how to run a grocery store. Still have continued stock outs. Warehousing and distribution still seems to be in complete disarray. Head office massacre that occurred is not indicative of a company that has turned itself around. | 2008-04-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | 31.730 | David Burrows | Retail has been under pressure for over a year. Food retailers have been under even more pressure. Food prices are rising very rapidly. Grocery business is a micro margin one. With increasing costs, it is very difficult to pass this on to the consumer. | 2008-04-18 | |
| DON'T BUY | 31.030 | Bruce Campbell | Too early. Has lots of real estate value but doesn't have enough earning power. There are still stock problems that don't seem to be getting fixed. Distribution side is still incredibly messed up. | 2008-04-11 | |
| DON'T BUY | 30.150 | Lyle Stein | Has been a disappointment. Has fallen on hard times as foreign competition has come into the market place. A classic value stock, it will recover soon. Not jumping in right now, not an entry point. | 2008-03-28 | |
| VAGUE | 28.800 | Peter Brieger | Food costs are increasing, resulting in margin squeezes. | 2008-03-19 | |
| DON'T BUY | 28.000 | Ron Meisels | It’s too late to sell, but certainly not the time to buy. It will take a lot of time for this stock to do its base building (bottom out) | 2008-03-14 | |
| DON'T BUY | 28.160 | Laura Wallace | Looking very cheap on an asset basis. Real estate is valued at over the current stock price at about $30 a share. The problem is, there is no confidence yet that they have been able to turn earnings and get control of their environment. Given the margin pressures it is facing, it is too early. | 2008-03-12 | |
| TOP PICK | 27.500 | Norman Levine | This is not a “current earnings” story. Currently trading at around the value of its real estate holdings. Looking for 1 of 3 things. 1.) Will turn around in the next year or two, probably starting later this year. 2.) The Weston family takes it private through George Weston (WN-T). 3.) Sells the company. Downside is limited, but the upside, even though it takes a year or so, will move very fast. | 2008-03-10 | |
| DON'T BUY | 27.320 | Gavin Graham | You lost half your money in the biggest supermarket chain in Canada in the last 5 years. That is a staggeringly bad track record. You have to think at some stage, if they just do a little bit better, the stock price could go up quite a bit. You really have to wait and see that the execution is actually there. | 2008-03-06 | |
| SELL | 29.940 | David Burrows | (Market Call Minute.) There are no redeeming features here and no increase coming anytime soon. | 2008-02-15 | |
| BUY | 30.290 | Norman Levine | Going through a transition because it has Wal-Mart breathing down its neck. Messed up with its superstores and how they set the distributions to them. They are addressing this but it will take time. Has a huge real estate portfolio, which is equivalent to what the stock is trading at. | 2008-02-11 | |
| TOP PICK | 33.050 | Norman Levine | Has been a terrible stock for the last few years and deserved it. Messed up on distribution. Stock price has come down to such a point that it is trading around the value of their real estate and you are getting the stores for nothing. Thinks it has a chance to turn around. If not, George Weston (WN-T) has the ability to sell it or take it private. Downside is already mostly in the stock. | 2008-01-29 | |
| DON'T BUY | 33.040 | Gordon Higgins, CA, MBA, CFA | Didn't get their inventory right and the grocery segment is getting a lot more competitive. Would still be concerned. You pay 14X earnings, which is expensive. | 2008-01-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | 33.250 | Paul Harris, CFA | Thinks the issues with this company goes deeper. They where the prime player in the grocery business, but their competition got better. Their expansion was done in an erratic way. Has not gotten really cheap. | 2008-01-24 | |
| Comment | 34.220 | Don Lato | Has probably hit a bottom in here, particularly when you look at some of the other consumer staples companies. Looking at Westons (WN-T), which owns 62%, as the preferred way to play this. The dividend is also better. | 2008-01-16 | |
| SELL | 35.150 | Peter Brieger | (Market Call Minute.) They need to turn it around and there is no sign they can do it with Joe. | 2008-01-11 | |
| DON'T BUY | 35.150 | Laura Wallace | With the Wal-Mart superstores coming in, they have internal problems. Too early to buy the stock. Would want to see that they had fixed the problems. | 2008-01-11 | |
| BUY | 35.360 | Bill Carrigan | (Market Call Minute.) You're probably okay, but do not let it make a 52-low. | 2008-01-09 | |
| TOP PICK | 35.150 | Norman Levine | Has done everything wrong for the last 3 years. Tried to out- Wal-Mart Wal-Mart, which can't be done. Messed up on distributions. Changed management to someone untried. Stock has been knocked down so cheap it is trading at or below real estate value, so you are getting the operations virtually for nothing. Thinks they will start to get their act together. Downside risk is very low. Good long-term play. | 2008-01-07 | |
| DON'T BUY | 31.350 | John O'Connell, CFA | Stock is down because they are having problems running their business. Thanks the dividend is safe, but with the squeeze on profits you have to wonder. You are still a little ways away from seeing if they have actually fixed their problems. Probably suffering from some tax law suffering as well so wouldn't be too bad to pick it up but you need a lot of patience. | 2007-12-10 | |
| SELL | 32.710 | David Burrows | When a growth stock runs into difficulty, the difference from what a growth investor will pay and where a value investor comes in, can be a big difference. Doesn't think the company knows how long it will take to solve their problem. They have competition and distribution problems still. | 2007-12-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | 32.440 | Gavin Graham | Haven’t owned for a couple of years. Poor execution, turning around their performance. Wouldn’t advice getting involved until they prove themselves | 2007-11-19 | |
| DON'T BUY | 40.590 | Cameron Webster | He is playing this through the George Weston (WN-T) preferred shares. Loblaws is a classic value trap. Low margin business. Having trouble with the volume traffic in their stores. Wal-Mart (WMT-N) is pushing hard on costs. | 2007-11-14 | |
| BUY | 42.790 | Andrew Guy, CFA | Still early days for a turnaround. It has taken much longer than he would have thought. There are challenges from all fronts. $45 is a good level but you will have to be patient. | 2007-11-02 | |
| DON'T BUY | 45.250 | Chyanne Fickes | Do not buy stocks on the way down, as you can't tell when a low has been reached. Distribution centres still aren't fixed. Biggest issue with these companies, besides Wal-Mart, are rising food costs that will cut into margins. | 2007-10-01 | |
| HOLD | 45.200 | Peter Brieger | Not yet. | 2007-09-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | 45.540 | Alex Ruus | Still a bit more downside to come. They are going through a tough period. Think they have the right steps in place to make a recovery, but it takes time to turn a large ship like this around. | 2007-09-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | 44.800 | Brian Acker, CA | He has a model price of $46.92 giving it a positive 5% differential. The model price has been steadily falling. (In Feb/07 it was $55.) | 2007-08-30 | |
| Comment | 51.500 | Jonathen Wellum, B. Comm, B. Sc | Numbers just released were pretty good. Starting to get on track. Not out of the woods. Have a lot of brand equity in the President's Choice, location, real estate, etc. | 2007-07-26 | |
| SELL | 51.900 | Bruce Campbell | Wait and see until they actually produce 2 quarters in a row of good earnings. A “ show me” story. | 2007-07-09 | |
| DON'T BUY | 50.920 | David Baskin | Loblaws (L-T) vs George Weston (WN-T). A lot of people are still pretty soured. No one is certain when the turnaround will come. | 2007-06-19 | |
| DON'T BUY | 49.750 | Brian Acker, CA | Wrote off goodwill. His model price is $50.86, which is basically a 2% positive differential. However, the model price has been eroding. More write-offs are required and they need a turnaround in earnings. | 2007-05-24 | |
| Comment | 50.360 | Peter Brieger | A great fan of this company, however PE ratio and forward earnings is about 19 X. Doesn't think it's worth this multiple. Would prefer at $5 less. | 2007-05-16 | |
| BUY | 50.480 | Ian Nakamoto | Sales growth in the latest quarter was up 4%, store by store. Things are starting to turn around. | 2007-05-14 | |
| DON'T BUY | 50.480 | Norman Levine | Same-store sales were a little bit better on their recent reporting. Doesn't mean they are out of the woods yet. Far too early to know if they're going to be successful. | 2007-05-01 | |
| WATCH | 50.000 | Ben Stadelmann | Trying to gear up for the competition with Wal-Mart. This has upset the applecart. Not sure if they are on the right track. Need to get back to their fundamentals. | 2007-04-20 | |
| HOLD | 46.130 | Peter Brieger | A great franchise but unfortunately it went off the rails, partly internal and partly from threats of Wal-Mart competition. Think the threats have been overblown. Once the price pressures abate, could be a great buy. | 2007-04-04 | |
| Comment | 46.160 | Gavin Graham | It can't be as bad as it has been for the last 18 months. He prefers George Weston (WN-T), a cheap way of owning this company. They shouldn't have the same operational difficulties this year. | 2007-03-26 | |
| SELL | 47.600 | Kyle McKay | Had a myriad of problems last quarter. From a valuation point, it is still very expensive. Going forward, there will be a lot of pricing competition. | 2007-03-19 | |
| DON'T BUY | 46.850 | Stephen Carlin | Would describe this is a good value trap. A lot of things going wrong with the company right now. Have announced restructuring after restructuring. No earnings growth. | 2007-02-14 | |
| HOLD | 46.810 | Jonathen Wellum, B. Comm, B. Sc | Thoroughly disappointed in the execution that has taken place over the last couple of years. Would let time take its course rather than buying at this time. Will not be easy for them to extricate themselves. Closer to $40 could be an entry point. | 2007-02-09 | |
| WATCH | 51.240 | Chris Smith | Reporting tomorrow and he is not expecting a lot of good news. Has not liked this company on a valuation basis for a long, long time. He is now starting to take a good hard look at this one. Would like to see the game plan laid out. | 2007-02-07 | |
| DON'T BUY | 51.420 | Bruce Campbell | The market is just waiting for better news. They are trying to do all the right things, but it will take a while. | 2007-02-05 | |
| BUY | 51.250 | Michael Sprung | This is a turnaround story. Has a very strong brand franchise. Doing a lot to clean up its distribution supply sources as well as take care of its inventory problems. | 2007-01-29 | |
| DON'T BUY | 51.220 | John Zechner | There is concern on Wal-Mart (WMT-N) coming into play. Their restructuring has cost them a little bit on the margins. | 2007-01-22 | |
| HOLD | 51.160 | Bill Carrigan | An excellent example of a when a stock sells off and has technically broken down. Had a long trend line up into 2005. Took a long drop and thinks it has now had an A, B, C correction. It is now showing a rally. He would treat it as a trade periodically. | 2007-01-12 | |
| HOLD | 50.900 | Steve MacInnes | Problems they're running into and their lack of execution has affected their performance. | 2007-01-11 | |
| BUY | 48.390 | Bill Carrigan | Chart shows a massive down and the stock is too far below its 200-day moving average. Thinks the stock wants to rally. Money looking to move into safer areas might move into this one. | 2006-12-20 | |
| DON'T BUY | 48.390 | Norman Levine | Has probably seen its worst. Between losing market share, having poor earnings, change in management, supply problems, they now have Wal-Mart (WMT-N) opening super centres. | 2006-12-20 | |
| HOLD | 47.900 | Robert Floyd | Had a few problems with this company in the past and has some question marks in regards to management. Distribution issues and some of their big box stores are somewhat confusing. Price is probably at the bottom, but issues still have to get resolved. | 2006-12-19 | |
| SELL | 47.850 | John Zechner | Probably not a lot of downside to the name, but there are a lot of pricing pressures in the sector. Expect earnings will be dropping for the next year or two. | 2006-12-12 | |
| HOLD | 47.500 | Michael Smedley | Closing 60 or more stores. Be patient. | 2006-11-22 | |
| SELL | 47.100 | Peter Hodson | Management has changed. Wal-Mart is coming in. Still a premium price. | 2006-11-20 | |
| DON'T BUY | 46.920 | Charles Lannon | Selling groceries pretty well anywhere in the northern hemisphere is a brutally competitive business, especially if Wal-Mart has their sights set on that market. Would steer clear of this one. | 2006-11-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | 45.470 | Norman Levine | Still have operational issues on. New management. | 2006-11-14 | |
| DON'T BUY | 45.930 | Robert Floyd | Has been negative on them because earnings issues are not out of the woods yet. Distribution centres have been problematic. Fairly low margins, so any issues quickly turn into losses. Wants to see a nice quarter first. | 2006-11-13 | |
| DON'T BUY | 46.900 | Stephen Carlin | Looks at stocks on a relative earnings growth scale and this one is not showing very well. Having some operational difficulties and are not able to show year-over-year earnings growth. Doesn’t think they can beat Wal-Mart (WMT-N). | 2006-11-08 | |
| BUY | 46.020 | Gavin Graham | Doesn't think it will have trouble maintaining its leadership in the food distribution channel. Had a stumble which is a good time to buy. He owns George Weston (WN-T) which owns 67% of Loblaws. | 2006-10-30 | |
| DON'T BUY | 45.730 | Laura Wallace | A great Canadian company, great brand name, great locations, and seems to be doing the right things to deal with competition, but execution has been terrible. Wait until they fix the logistical problems. | 2006-10-24 | |
| BUY | 45.520 | Rob Callander | As an entry point, you could start nibbling at this time and then add at higher or lower prices. Have a pretty strong brand name. They will be able to compete with Wal-Mart. | 2006-10-23 | |
| Comment | 46.250 | David Driscoll | This will require patience. Wal-Mart is starting to introduce superstores that will cause a decline in margins. Have a distribution and logistics problem. | 2006-10-20 | |
| DON'T BUY | 47.250 | Brian Acker, CA | His model price is $56.78, an 18.5% positive differential. This is where he thinks the stock will hold its ground. They have to show a turnaround, something in the way of good news. | 2006-10-17 | |
| HOLD | 46.510 | Jonathen Wellum, B. Comm, B. Sc | Down 30% this year. He is a little frustrated with it. Hasn't lost heart completely. Thinks they can turn this around. | 2006-10-10 | |
| Comment | 47.000 | Benj Gallander | If you view the economy is not being good, this company will still be selling product. However, they do have competition. Making money and their balance sheet is in decent shape. | 2006-10-06 | |
| DON'T BUY | 47.170 | Bruce Campbell | Not an attraction for non-food stuff so he is having trouble with the whole concept. They are still having trouble with stock out problems. | 2006-10-05 | |
| DON'T BUY | 46.610 | Neil Wickham | There probably will be a time in the next 6/12 months when it will be an attractive buy, but at likely lower prices. Have used all of their cash flow and some borrowed money in their expansion program. Have never generated net free cash flow. | 2006-10-03 | |
| DON'T BUY | 46.610 | Chyanne Fickes | They are having labour problems right now. Recommends not buying now, wait for positive news. | 2006-10-02 | |
| DON'T BUY | 47.860 | Norman Levine | There has been a recent management change and he is not very happy about it. He is not warm on this stock. | 2006-09-27 | |
| WATCH | 47.800 | Peter Brieger | Is down 15%, extreme competition with Wal-mart. They are watching it, it is high on their radar screen. | 2006-09-26 | |
| BUY | 50.500 | Michael Sprung | Has initiated a strategy that is somewhat defensive to compete with the Wal-Mart's. There are a lot of good merchandising minds in this company. Good locations. Good price if you have a longer-term view. | 2006-09-19 | |
| TOP PICK | 50.680 | Ross Healey | Has easy upside to $59/60. | 2006-09-18 | |
| WAIT | 50.970 | Bill Carrigan | To ensure that the last low is its bottom, you look for a volume increase. Doesn't think it has broken above the long-term trendline yet. When money gets nervous, it will go into this type of stock. | 2006-09-15 | |
| DON'T BUY | 50.740 | Ian Nakamoto | This is a defensive play and the market seems to be gravitating towards defensive stocks. Feels there are better ways to play it until earnings get turned. | 2006-09-11 | |
| HOLD | 51.350 | Chyanne Fickes | Would wait to see what their next earnings announcement looks like. If they continue to have problems, the stock will go lower. | 2006-08-31 | |
| WAIT | 50.260 | Bruce Campbell | Recently sold all his position. Problem has been, in gearing up for Wal-Mart, they tried to change from being a food retailer to a general merchandiser. Ended up with stock and inventory problems. Wait until they have actually proved the problems are behind them. Well managed and great long-term track record. | 2006-08-25 | |
| DON'T BUY | 50.180 | David Burrows | Has really come off quite a lot. Has some difficulty perceptually with Wal-Mart coming into the market. Have had some problems with distribution. A good sector defensively but this is not the one to own. | 2006-08-23 | |
| DON'T BUY | 49.290 | Norman Levine | Still isn't showing any signs of having a bottom. Still have lingering distribution problems. Have been cutting prices in anticipation of Wal-Mart and that is hurting margins. Market is not sure if the move into non-food products is good. | 2006-08-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | 48.560 | Laura Wallace | Doing the right thing on a long-term basis but execution has been very disappointing. They have now pushed out to 2008 when they might start to see benefits. Cost more than they anticipated. Still too early to buy. | 2006-08-21 | |
| DON'T BUY | 48.150 | Paul Harris, CFA | Doesn't like the industry that much. This company was very unique and was clicking on all fronts. Competitors have now caught on to their style and they are really being hurt. | 2006-08-15 | |
| WATCH | 47.420 | Peter Brieger | Has been a favourite over the years. Have run into a lot of difficulty lately with supply chains and fear of competition from Wal-Mart. Cheap at 13 X earnings. It is becoming so cheap, that it will be a great buy. | 2006-08-14 | |
| DON'T BUY | 47.420 | Laura Wallace | The 2nd quarter was below expectations. They are pushing their recovery out to ’08. Wait. | 2006-08-14 | |
| DON'T BUY | 47.670 | Bruce Campbell | Very poor chart. Wait for the first decent “up quarter”. | 2006-08-10 | |
| DON'T BUY | 47.920 | Peter Brieger | On a 5-year chart their base was $50 a share. Has now broken below that. Until it finds a bottom, he would stay away. | 2006-08-09 | |
| DON'T BUY | 49.210 | Ross Healey | Has not been a favourite for a long time. The good news is that there is excellent technical support at the $47.50 level but the bad news is that Westons (WN-T), which is a sister company, has just given a sell signal. | 2006-08-03 | |
| DON'T BUY | 49.210 | Ian Nakamoto | Great franchise with great management but would like to see the earnings turn before calling it a “BUY”. | 2006-08-03 | |
| DON'T BUY | 48.720 | Brian Acker, CA | Getting close to $47.60 where he would consider buying. Look for the price to hold for quite some time until there is some inkling that they can get their distribution troubles out of the way. Will be dead money for a while. | 2006-08-02 | |
| DON'T BUY | 49.260 | John Zechner | Still too early to buy. A really competitive market. Costs are rising and margins are coming under pressure. Would buy in the low $40’s. | 2006-07-31 | |
| HOLD | 49.210 | Fred Pynn | Stock has not acted well at all. Believes the company is doing the right thing. Trying to reinvest in their business and position themselves so they can compete. Have had problems executing on their structure strategy, but fundamentally they're not broke and sales continue to go up. | 2006-07-26 | |
| BUY | 52.240 | Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | In one of the bottoming pictures now. The risk/reward is very strong. Looking out a couple of years, the value is starting to build. | 2006-07-24 | |
| WAIT | 51.990 | Laura Wallace | Great company and she follows it closely looking for an entry point. Making serious investments in distribution networks but this is having a terrible impact on short-term earnings. Waiting until they solve their execution problems. | 2006-07-20 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 52.500 | Peter Brieger | Would buy just below $50 if they got their distribution network fixed up. On his radar screen. | 2006-07-18 | |
| WEAK BUY | 51.510 | Bill Carrigan | When you get a bear market, money tends to go into safe sectors. Doesn't think you will get too beat up in this one. You would only be there because of scared money, not because it is a growth stock. | 2006-07-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | 52.950 | Norman Levine | Is watching and would like to own, but it is way too early to own this one. Have had distribution problems which has not been totally cured yet. Wal-Mart (WMT-N) is tending to become more of a competitor in the food area which will hurt volumes and margins. Would rather own Kroger (KR-N). | 2006-07-11 | |
| DON'T BUY | 52.050 | Bruce Campbell | At a 52-week low. As a long-term play, it could be a good entry point. Sold his holdings in the last month because he wanted stocks that would bounce back when the market bounced back. Expects there will be a quarter or two where there will still be distribution problems. | 2006-07-05 | |
Experts that have talked about Loblaws
