STOCKCHASE

A turnaround story that is now working. Profitability is better. Distribution system, while not 100% perfect, is much better. Good management. Food deflation seems to be coming to an end, which bodes well for profitability.

2010-07-09

TOP PICK

39.550

The street has not liked this stock all along. The turn around is in place and now the street is becoming believers. Investors like it. It hit a new high the other day. Attracting conservative investors. Earnings surprises on the upside for two reasons: Turnaround starting to show on the bottom line and the big worry on food retailers is food deflation but it is waning now.

2010-06-09

PAST TOP PICK

37.610

(A Top Pick May 6/09. Up 8.6% excluding dividends.) Bought on it being a turnaround, which is working. Low risk because of their real estate, which will support it on the down side.

2010-05-05

BUY

37.580

High Cdn$ has created deflation in grocery stores so he expects weaker earnings this year. Expect it will turn around and there will be food inflation again. Not a lot of competition.

2010-04-20

PAST TOP PICK

36.920

Ara Nalbandian

(Top Pick Jul 3/09, Up 6.72%) Moved into George Weston.

2010-02-16

Comment

36.390

Brian Acker, CA

His model price is $39.15, a 9.6% positive differential. Thinks it holds here for a while but doesn't expect any great gains. Likes the sector and his #1 pick would be Metro (MRU.A-T).

2010-02-03

HOLD

35.570

John Zechner

(Market Call Minute.) Has had management turnover and growth has slowed.

2010-02-01

TOP PICK

33.920

Christine Poole

Started a turnaround strategy plan in 2007 to improve and reinvest in its infrastructure as well as refurbishing store space. Margins have been on decline for 5 years but have improved in the last year. 2.5% yield.

2010-01-11

Comment

33.950

(Market Call Minute.) Prefers Empire (EMP.A-T).

2010-01-04

HOLD

33.880

Would like to own this but the next 12 months are going to be difficult for the whole sector. Partly because you are not seeing food inflation. Has been good at cost containment but going into a competitive environment is likely to pressure margins.

2009-12-31

WEAK BUY

32.680

At this valuation it is starting to look a little interesting. Trading at about 13X next year's earnings. Has made some strides in refurbishing some of the stores and getting merchandising back into focus.

2009-12-09

PAST TOP PICK

32.550

(A Top Pick Nov 25/08. Up 10.32%.)

2009-12-08

BUY

33.020

(Market Call Minute) Likes Empire a little bit better.

2009-12-02

DON'T BUY

33.080

About 3 years in a 5-year restructuring. Working at paying down debt and getting costs into line. Not a part of the market that people really care about right now.

2009-11-25

BUY

30.400

2 things have hurt supermarkets recently. Grocery prices have been deflating that is hurting their margins. Also a consumer non-durable and interest is elsewhere. Great turnaround story.

2009-11-16

PAST TOP PICK

30.020

(A Top Pick Nov 26/08. Down .03% not including dividends.) Got stopped out of his position.

2009-11-12

PAST TOP PICK

30.250

(A Top Pick Dec 4/08. Down 7.4%.) Had looked like it had an upside potential and was above its 200-day moving average. It then turned around giving lots of negative signals and he got stopped out at around $34-$35. Still in the negative pattern.

2009-11-05

DON'T BUY

30.230

Paul Harris, CFA

Don’t like it and haven’t for a long time. They came out and had great concept and now competitors have copied. It’s difficult for them. They are never going to see the multiples they saw before. Prefers Weston.

2009-11-03

DON'T BUY

29.860

David Cockfield

Dividend is well covered. Stock price has been trending down.

2009-10-30

DON'T BUY

30.800

Martin Hubbes, CFA

Likes it as a company but not as a stock because of valuation. It is a turnaround company and market is making you pay for part of that. Prefers MRU.A where you don’t have the operations problems to be resolved.

2009-10-21

HOLD

30.800

Has not been a particularly great stock over the last couple of years and there are better places to be in the Canadian retail side.

2009-10-21

SELL

31.500

Likes this company and feels they’re over the hump and over their problems. Would Sell and buy Empire (EMP.A-T) instead. (See Top Picks.)

2009-09-29

BUY

32.650

Steve Carlin

Adding to his accounts in the $30-$32 range. Could get to $40 in the next few years. Attractive valuation.

2009-09-16

PAST TOP SHORT

32.710

Derek Webb, CFA

(A Top Pick May 16/08. Up 2.42%.) Did very well during the bear phase but is not doing well during the bull phase.

2009-09-03

PAST TOP PICK

33.230

(A Top Pick Nov 26/08. Up 9.03%.) Was stopped out on a pullback in the spring. Still a Buy along with its sister company George Weston (WN-T). Very defensive stocks.

2009-08-27

PAST TOP PICK

33.120

Ara Nalbandian

(A Top Pick July 3/09. Down 6.45%.) Making a number of positive adjustments in their operations and marketing.

2009-08-19

DON'T BUY

33.000

Fairly fully valued. Last couple of quarters were better. $35 per share value in real estate. Would prefer George Weston (WN-T), which gives you this company and a chance of them doing something well for free.

2009-08-10

TOP PICK

34.290

Christine Horoyski

4.85% bond maturing May 8/14. High BBB yielding about 150 basis points over Canada. #1 grocer in Canada and are working very hard to maintain that position. Have a great platform to work from.

2009-07-30

BUY

35.500

When the economy was collapsing, companies like this did well as people viewed food stores as a safe haven. When the market took off in March based companies got left. Reported a good quarter and expect the next one will also be good.

2009-07-22

TOP PICK

35.060

Ara Nalbandian

Benefiting from food price inflation that is driving their margins. Instilled several operational efficiencies to reduce shrink to improve vendor relationships. Renovating 300 stores. Canada's premier discount brand. Trading at a discount to its peers.

2009-07-03

WATCH

35.650

Don Vialoux

Technicals are quite encouraging. It has established an upward trend but recently has had difficulties getting above resistance. Short-term momentum indicators have rolled over. His suggestion would be to try to Sell when it gets close to its recent high of $37.50. Seasonality is from around the end of October and through until April.

2009-06-02

PAST TOP PICK

35.770

(A Top Pick Nov 26/08. Up 16%.) Got stopped out in March with a small profit. Would probably Buy it back in the $32-$34 area. Defensive stock so if you want to get defensive this summer this is a good place to be. Right now you want stocks that can run up faster.

2009-05-28

BUY

36.100

Hank Cunningham

Just did a bond issue that was massively oversubscribed. Not a strong credit, but credit worthy. If you are doing corporate bonds, buy a number of them and spread your risk around.

2009-05-08

TOP PICK

35.450

It has seen the worst, is bottoming and is starting to do better. The soft economy benefits supermarkets. Long-term hold.

2009-05-06

Comment

31.250

A classic defensive stock and they now seem to have turned things around. At this point it is an interesting investment. On her radar.

2009-04-07

PAST TOP PICK

30.900

(A Top Pick Nov 26/08. Up 3.4%.) Got stopped at about $30.50 at a very small profit. Nothing wrong with it and it is in the reasonable space. Very defensive.

2009-04-03

DON'T BUY

30.900

Peter Gibson

In the last few months, profitability has stabilized. Operating characteristics are also improving a little bit but doesn't think it is out of the woods entirely yet. Still too early.

2009-04-03

PAST TOP PICK

32.450

(A Top Pick Nov 26/08. Up 7.1%.) Likes the food sector. Still on track. Hold.

2009-02-20

SHORT

35.560

Ken McCord

(Market Call Minute.) Has had an amazing run, but the most expensive grocery store in the world right now.

2009-01-29

PAST TOP PICK

35.950

(A Top Pick Jan 7/08. Up 6.7%.) Had a good run so there might be better places to put new money. If you own, continued to Hold.

2009-01-27

TOP PICK

35.800

Very real indications they are gaining traction and moving towards their operating plan. This could see earnings growth over the next 3 years in a very defensive space.

2009-01-07

TOP PICK

34.970

Great management.

2008-12-31

DON'T BUY

34.400

Recently shot up because of that move to defensive stocks as well as a rumour that the Weston family might be making a bid to privatize the company. Thinks this is built into the price of the stock. Trading at about 8X EBITDA next year.

2008-12-19

HOLD

34.000

Bill MacLachlan

(Market Call Minute.) Has performed amazingly well over the last little while. There is a possibility that Weston (WN-T) will take it back in the fold.

2008-12-11

TOP PICK

33.500

One of the few stocks that is above its 200-day moving average. Started base building as far back as February/08. Use a stoploss of around $30.50. Potential of reaching $47-$48.

2008-12-04

BUY

32.750

(Market Call Minute.)

2008-12-01

TOP PICK

31.000

Looks like it has turned around. Good locations.

2008-11-26

TOP PICK

30.500

In times of desperation, consumers stop going to restaurants and start buying frozen meat pies. Simultaneously, you've got this company that is making a turnaround in its quarterly numbers. The long exhausting restructuring seems to be happening.

2008-11-25

DON'T BUY

27.000

Peter Gibson

Not buying because profit characteristics are very weak. ROE is still very weak. Been acting defensively because it is relatively cheap and is a consumer’s staple. Margins have started to stabilize. Would look for the start of a turnaround in the next 6 to 9 months.

2008-10-28

WAIT

28.520

David Baskin

May have finally passed the worst, but he wants to see one or two quarters of growing profit to see.

2008-10-06

SELL

30.970

David Driscoll

(Market Call Minute.) Yuck.

2008-09-16

TOP PICK

31.520

There is no great since of a magical recovery in the company’s fortunes. They are making a very great effort to remedy their problems. In this kind of market, this is one of the stocks that you can put into the “happy” bracket.

2008-09-15

DON'T BUY

31.310

He is currently short this company (but long the George Weston preferreds as a pair trade) in his hedge fund. He continues to be worried about the presence of Wal-Mart (WMT-N). They are continuously out of stock on a lot of items and it looks like the re-branding will cost more money.

2008-09-11

Comment

30.410

200-day moving average is still falling. Spent 7 months in base building. As long as $30 (roughly) holds and the stock continues to trade in this range there or is a chance it will move above the 200-day moving average.

2008-09-03

DON'T BUY

29.500

Shauna Sexsmith

Sold her holdings when Wal-Mart announced they were coming to Canada. They enacted a restructuring program, which she feels totally destroyed the basic fundamentals of the company. Fundamentals continue to be very weak.

2008-08-26

DON'T BUY

29.670

$30 of real estate if they ever break it up, which is great but they’ve got to earn money. Distribution problems are still not fixed. Wal-Mart is still expanding.

2008-08-18

SELL

28.990

David Cockfield

Still doesn't like this one. Fighting with Wal-Mart. It will be a long turn around.

2008-08-01

PAST TOP SHORT

28.910

(A Top Short April 25/08. Down 0.05%.)Pairs trade. Went Long George Weston preferreds (WN.PR.A-T) and Short Loblaws (L-T). Still likes for the next year.

2008-07-28

TOP PICK

30.460

Bill MacLachlan

He sees the Book Value at $20/$22 a share and the real estate is likely undervalued in that. The market has priced in the worst-case scenario. There are a number of things being done that will provide improvement. Relatively low risk.

2008-07-17

DON'T BUY

30.580

Peter Gibson

Energy inflation could weigh heavily in this sector. Doesn’t like this company. ROE is still under a lot of pressure.

2008-06-27

DON'T BUY

30.720

Lyle Stein

In this kind of a market, this is the kind of a name that people run to. When the market bounces, this is not going to be the one that leads it to the upside. If you really want a defensive name, this might be the one to own. He'd rather have something that would give him a bigger pop in a market recovery.

2008-06-26

DON'T BUY

32.900

David Baskin

Have to be pretty brave to get into this one, even now. Totally botched the revamping of its distribution warehouse system. Competitive threat of Wal-Mart and Sams Clubs cannot be underestimated

2008-06-10

WEAK BUY

34.340

Ross Healy

Has been really hammered down from 4X book to 1.5X book. Earnings estimates are not particularly supporting a rally of much consequence. If you had a five-year horizon, at this price it's not going to hurt you too much.

2008-06-05

SELL

33.250

Expect it will take 5 to 7 years to turn it around. Wait to see more evidence of a turnaround in a quarterly number. Be willing to pay a little higher in order to see that happen.

2008-05-26

HOLD

33.090

(Market Call Minute.) Too early to Buy.

2008-05-23

SHORT

33.090

Ken McCord

Been short on this stock for a long time. Has also sold a put option, which will allow him to cover if needed. Margins have eroded for years now. What hasn't been factored in yet is that input prices for food are going up parabolic and this will put a further squeeze on their margins.

2008-05-23

TOP SHORT

33.340

Derek Webb, CFA

A lot of the consumer names have recently rallied. He still sees the numbers going down in almost all the financials and all the consumer stocks. The numbers just keep getting worse for this company. Also, when input prices start going up, they are going to skyrocket and that will squeeze the margins. (The average investor should not use shorts.)

2008-05-16

DON'T BUY

32.650

One of the reasons you may want to own it is because there is $30 a share in real estate value, but that is not the operating business and that would only come to light if they were in distress. It is actually valued quite expensively compared to other stores. Margins of all the grocers are going to get squeezed.

2008-05-09

BUY

31.830

Michael Sprung

A major large cap stock that has had total capitulation. Making money and has a large underpinning of asset value. Good for long-term investors. Beginning to show signs of straightening around. Most of his exposure is through George Weston (WN-T). Selling at reasonable valuation level.

2008-04-30

TOP SHORT

29.400

Pairs trade. Long on George Weston preferreds (WN.PR.A-T) and Short Loblaws (L-T). Cannot get their Information Technology behind them. Out of stock signs are all over the place. Wal-Mart is coming in. Prices are declining. No improvement in Canada for grocery stores.

2008-04-25

DON'T BUY

29.400

Q: Kroger (KR-N) versus Loblaws (L-T). A: The real challenge for Loblaws is not just the entry of Wal-Mart (WMT-N); they have not spent properly on their IT system. Shelves are not stocked properly and he does not see this changing soon. Departure of 3 top executives indicates the coming quarter is probably going to be quite bad. One of his funds is actually short this stock.

2008-04-25

DON'T BUY

29.340

Paul Harris, CFA

They had an incredible franchise years ago with very high margins. Now have a lot of competition and will never get the margins that they did historically. Not cheap.

2008-04-24

SELL

29.990

David Baskin

Seems to have fired anybody over 40, basically anybody that knows how to run a grocery store. Still have continued stock outs. Warehousing and distribution still seems to be in complete disarray. Head office massacre that occurred is not indicative of a company that has turned itself around.

2008-04-22

DON'T BUY

31.730

Retail has been under pressure for over a year. Food retailers have been under even more pressure. Food prices are rising very rapidly. Grocery business is a micro margin one. With increasing costs, it is very difficult to pass this on to the consumer.

2008-04-18

DON'T BUY

31.030

Too early. Has lots of real estate value but doesn't have enough earning power. There are still stock problems that don't seem to be getting fixed. Distribution side is still incredibly messed up.

2008-04-11

DON'T BUY

30.150

Lyle Stein

Has been a disappointment. Has fallen on hard times as foreign competition has come into the market place. A classic value stock, it will recover soon. Not jumping in right now, not an entry point.

2008-03-28

VAGUE

28.800

Peter Brieger

Food costs are increasing, resulting in margin squeezes.

2008-03-19

DON'T BUY

28.000

It’s too late to sell, but certainly not the time to buy. It will take a lot of time for this stock to do its base building (bottom out)

2008-03-14

DON'T BUY

28.160

Looking very cheap on an asset basis. Real estate is valued at over the current stock price at about $30 a share. The problem is, there is no confidence yet that they have been able to turn earnings and get control of their environment. Given the margin pressures it is facing, it is too early.

2008-03-12

TOP PICK

27.500

This is not a “current earnings” story. Currently trading at around the value of its real estate holdings. Looking for 1 of 3 things. 1.) Will turn around in the next year or two, probably starting later this year. 2.) The Weston family takes it private through George Weston (WN-T). 3.) Sells the company. Downside is limited, but the upside, even though it takes a year or so, will move very fast.

2008-03-10

DON'T BUY

27.320

Gavin Graham

You lost half your money in the biggest supermarket chain in Canada in the last 5 years. That is a staggeringly bad track record. You have to think at some stage, if they just do a little bit better, the stock price could go up quite a bit. You really have to wait and see that the execution is actually there.

2008-03-06

SELL

29.940

(Market Call Minute.) There are no redeeming features here and no increase coming anytime soon.

2008-02-15

BUY

30.290

Going through a transition because it has Wal-Mart breathing down its neck. Messed up with its superstores and how they set the distributions to them. They are addressing this but it will take time. Has a huge real estate portfolio, which is equivalent to what the stock is trading at.

2008-02-11

TOP PICK

33.050

Has been a terrible stock for the last few years and deserved it. Messed up on distribution. Stock price has come down to such a point that it is trading around the value of their real estate and you are getting the stores for nothing. Thinks it has a chance to turn around. If not, George Weston (WN-T) has the ability to sell it or take it private. Downside is already mostly in the stock.

2008-01-29

DON'T BUY

33.040

Gordon Higgins, CA, MBA

Didn't get their inventory right and the grocery segment is getting a lot more competitive. Would still be concerned. You pay 14X earnings, which is expensive.

2008-01-25

DON'T BUY

33.250

Paul Harris, CFA

Thinks the issues with this company goes deeper. They where the prime player in the grocery business, but their competition got better. Their expansion was done in an erratic way. Has not gotten really cheap.

2008-01-24

Comment

34.220

Has probably hit a bottom in here, particularly when you look at some of the other consumer staples companies. Looking at Westons (WN-T), which owns 62%, as the preferred way to play this. The dividend is also better.

2008-01-16

SELL

35.150

Peter Brieger

(Market Call Minute.) They need to turn it around and there is no sign they can do it with Joe.

2008-01-11

DON'T BUY

35.150

With the Wal-Mart superstores coming in, they have internal problems. Too early to buy the stock. Would want to see that they had fixed the problems.

2008-01-11

BUY

35.360

Bill Carrigan

(Market Call Minute.) You're probably okay, but do not let it make a 52-low.

2008-01-09

TOP PICK

35.150

Has done everything wrong for the last 3 years. Tried to out- Wal-Mart Wal-Mart, which can't be done. Messed up on distributions. Changed management to someone untried. Stock has been knocked down so cheap it is trading at or below real estate value, so you are getting the operations virtually for nothing. Thinks they will start to get their act together. Downside risk is very low. Good long-term play.

2008-01-07

DON'T BUY

31.350

John O'Connell, CFA

Stock is down because they are having problems running their business. Thanks the dividend is safe, but with the squeeze on profits you have to wonder. You are still a little ways away from seeing if they have actually fixed their problems. Probably suffering from some tax law suffering as well so wouldn't be too bad to pick it up but you need a lot of patience.

2007-12-10

SELL

32.710