STOCKCHASE

May have finally passed the worst, but he wants to see one or two quarters of growing profit to see.

2008-10-06

SELL

30.970

David Driscoll

(Market Call Minute.) Yuck.

2008-09-16

TOP PICK

31.520

Michael Smedley

There is no great since of a magical recovery in the company’s fortunes. They are making a very great effort to remedy their problems. In this kind of market, this is one of the stocks that you can put into the “happy” bracket.

2008-09-15

DON'T BUY

31.310

He is currently short this company (but long the George Weston preferreds as a pair trade) in his hedge fund. He continues to be worried about the presence of Wal-Mart (WMT-N). They are continuously out of stock on a lot of items and it looks like the re-branding will cost more money.

2008-09-11

Comment

30.410

Ron Meisels

200-day moving average is still falling. Spent 7 months in base building. As long as $30 (roughly) holds and the stock continues to trade in this range there or is a chance it will move above the 200-day moving average.

2008-09-03

DON'T BUY

29.500

Shauna Sexsmith

Sold her holdings when Wal-Mart announced they were coming to Canada. They enacted a restructuring program, which she feels totally destroyed the basic fundamentals of the company. Fundamentals continue to be very weak.

2008-08-26

DON'T BUY

29.670

$30 of real estate if they ever break it up, which is great but they’ve got to earn money. Distribution problems are still not fixed. Wal-Mart is still expanding.

2008-08-18

SELL

28.990

David Cockfield

Still doesn't like this one. Fighting with Wal-Mart. It will be a long turn around.

2008-08-01

PAST TOP SHORT

28.910

(A Top Short April 25/08. Down 0.05%.)Pairs trade. Went Long George Weston preferreds (WN.PR.A-T) and Short Loblaws (L-T). Still likes for the next year.

2008-07-28

TOP PICK

30.460

Bill MacLachlan

He sees the Book Value at $20/$22 a share and the real estate is likely undervalued in that. The market has priced in the worst-case scenario. There are a number of things being done that will provide improvement. Relatively low risk.

2008-07-17

DON'T BUY

30.580

Peter Gibson

Energy inflation could weigh heavily in this sector. Doesn’t like this company. ROE is still under a lot of pressure.

2008-06-27

DON'T BUY

30.720

Lyle Stein

In this kind of a market, this is the kind of a name that people run to. When the market bounces, this is not going to be the one that leads it to the upside. If you really want a defensive name, this might be the one to own. He'd rather have something that would give him a bigger pop in a market recovery.

2008-06-26

DON'T BUY

32.900

Have to be pretty brave to get into this one, even now. Totally botched the revamping of its distribution warehouse system. Competitive threat of Wal-Mart and Sams Clubs cannot be underestimated

2008-06-10

WEAK BUY

34.340

Ross Healy

Has been really hammered down from 4X book to 1.5X book. Earnings estimates are not particularly supporting a rally of much consequence. If you had a five-year horizon, at this price it's not going to hurt you too much.

2008-06-05

SELL

33.250

Expect it will take 5 to 7 years to turn it around. Wait to see more evidence of a turnaround in a quarterly number. Be willing to pay a little higher in order to see that happen.

2008-05-26

HOLD

33.090

(Market Call Minute.) Too early to Buy.

2008-05-23

SHORT

33.090

Ken McCord

Been short on this stock for a long time. Has also sold a put option, which will allow him to cover if needed. Margins have eroded for years now. What hasn't been factored in yet is that input prices for food are going up parabolic and this will put a further squeeze on their margins.

2008-05-23

TOP SHORT

33.340

Derek Webb, CFA

A lot of the consumer names have recently rallied. He still sees the numbers going down in almost all the financials and all the consumer stocks. The numbers just keep getting worse for this company. Also, when input prices start going up, they are going to skyrocket and that will squeeze the margins. (The average investor should not use shorts.)

2008-05-16

DON'T BUY

32.650

One of the reasons you may want to own it is because there is $30 a share in real estate value, but that is not the operating business and that would only come to light if they were in distress. It is actually valued quite expensively compared to other stores. Margins of all the grocers are going to get squeezed.

2008-05-09

BUY

31.830

Michael Sprung

A major large cap stock that has had total capitulation. Making money and has a large underpinning of asset value. Good for long-term investors. Beginning to show signs of straightening around. Most of his exposure is through George Weston (WN-T). Selling at reasonable valuation level.

2008-04-30

TOP SHORT

29.400

Pairs trade. Long on George Weston preferreds (WN.PR.A-T) and Short Loblaws (L-T). Cannot get their Information Technology behind them. Out of stock signs are all over the place. Wal-Mart is coming in. Prices are declining. No improvement in Canada for grocery stores.

2008-04-25

DON'T BUY

29.400

Q: Kroger (KR-N) versus Loblaws (L-T). A: The real challenge for Loblaws is not just the entry of Wal-Mart (WMT-N); they have not spent properly on their IT system. Shelves are not stocked properly and he does not see this changing soon. Departure of 3 top executives indicates the coming quarter is probably going to be quite bad. One of his funds is actually short this stock.

2008-04-25

DON'T BUY

29.340

Paul Harris, CFA

They had an incredible franchise years ago with very high margins. Now have a lot of competition and will never get the margins that they did historically. Not cheap.

2008-04-24

SELL

29.990

Seems to have fired anybody over 40, basically anybody that knows how to run a grocery store. Still have continued stock outs. Warehousing and distribution still seems to be in complete disarray. Head office massacre that occurred is not indicative of a company that has turned itself around.

2008-04-22

DON'T BUY

31.730

Retail has been under pressure for over a year. Food retailers have been under even more pressure. Food prices are rising very rapidly. Grocery business is a micro margin one. With increasing costs, it is very difficult to pass this on to the consumer.

2008-04-18

DON'T BUY

31.030

Too early. Has lots of real estate value but doesn't have enough earning power. There are still stock problems that don't seem to be getting fixed. Distribution side is still incredibly messed up.

2008-04-11

DON'T BUY

30.150

Lyle Stein

Has been a disappointment. Has fallen on hard times as foreign competition has come into the market place. A classic value stock, it will recover soon. Not jumping in right now, not an entry point.

2008-03-28

VAGUE

28.800

Food costs are increasing, resulting in margin squeezes.

2008-03-19

DON'T BUY

28.000

Ron Meisels

It’s too late to sell, but certainly not the time to buy. It will take a lot of time for this stock to do its base building (bottom out)

2008-03-14

DON'T BUY

28.160

Looking very cheap on an asset basis. Real estate is valued at over the current stock price at about $30 a share. The problem is, there is no confidence yet that they have been able to turn earnings and get control of their environment. Given the margin pressures it is facing, it is too early.

2008-03-12

TOP PICK

27.500

This is not a “current earnings” story. Currently trading at around the value of its real estate holdings. Looking for 1 of 3 things. 1.) Will turn around in the next year or two, probably starting later this year. 2.) The Weston family takes it private through George Weston (WN-T). 3.) Sells the company. Downside is limited, but the upside, even though it takes a year or so, will move very fast.

2008-03-10

DON'T BUY

27.320

You lost half your money in the biggest supermarket chain in Canada in the last 5 years. That is a staggeringly bad track record. You have to think at some stage, if they just do a little bit better, the stock price could go up quite a bit. You really have to wait and see that the execution is actually there.

2008-03-06

SELL

29.940

(Market Call Minute.) There are no redeeming features here and no increase coming anytime soon.

2008-02-15

BUY

30.290

Going through a transition because it has Wal-Mart breathing down its neck. Messed up with its superstores and how they set the distributions to them. They are addressing this but it will take time. Has a huge real estate portfolio, which is equivalent to what the stock is trading at.

2008-02-11

TOP PICK

33.050

Gordon Higgins, CA, MBA, CFA

Has been a terrible stock for the last few years and deserved it. Messed up on distribution. Stock price has come down to such a point that it is trading around the value of their real estate and you are getting the stores for nothing. Thinks it has a chance to turn around. If not, George Weston (WN-T) has the ability to sell it or take it private. Downside is already mostly in the stock.

2008-01-29

DON'T BUY

33.040

Didn't get their inventory right and the grocery segment is getting a lot more competitive. Would still be concerned. You pay 14X earnings, which is expensive.

2008-01-25

DON'T BUY

33.250

Paul Harris, CFA

Thinks the issues with this company goes deeper. They where the prime player in the grocery business, but their competition got better. Their expansion was done in an erratic way. Has not gotten really cheap.

2008-01-24

Comment

34.220

Don Lato

Has probably hit a bottom in here, particularly when you look at some of the other consumer staples companies. Looking at Westons (WN-T), which owns 62%, as the preferred way to play this. The dividend is also better.

2008-01-16

SELL

35.150

(Market Call Minute.) They need to turn it around and there is no sign they can do it with Joe.

2008-01-11

DON'T BUY

35.150

With the Wal-Mart superstores coming in, they have internal problems. Too early to buy the stock. Would want to see that they had fixed the problems.

2008-01-11

BUY

35.360

(Market Call Minute.) You're probably okay, but do not let it make a 52-low.

2008-01-09

TOP PICK

35.150

Has done everything wrong for the last 3 years. Tried to out- Wal-Mart Wal-Mart, which can't be done. Messed up on distributions. Changed management to someone untried. Stock has been knocked down so cheap it is trading at or below real estate value, so you are getting the operations virtually for nothing. Thinks they will start to get their act together. Downside risk is very low. Good long-term play.

2008-01-07

DON'T BUY

31.350

John O'Connell, CFA

Stock is down because they are having problems running their business. Thanks the dividend is safe, but with the squeeze on profits you have to wonder. You are still a little ways away from seeing if they have actually fixed their problems. Probably suffering from some tax law suffering as well so wouldn't be too bad to pick it up but you need a lot of patience.

2007-12-10

SELL

32.710

When a growth stock runs into difficulty, the difference from what a growth investor will pay and where a value investor comes in, can be a big difference. Doesn't think the company knows how long it will take to solve their problem. They have competition and distribution problems still.

2007-12-04

DON'T BUY

32.440

Haven’t owned for a couple of years. Poor execution, turning around their performance. Wouldn’t advice getting involved until they prove themselves

2007-11-19

DON'T BUY

40.590

Cameron Webster

He is playing this through the George Weston (WN-T) preferred shares. Loblaws is a classic value trap. Low margin business. Having trouble with the volume traffic in their stores. Wal-Mart (WMT-N) is pushing hard on costs.

2007-11-14

BUY

42.790

Andrew Guy, CFA

Still early days for a turnaround. It has taken much longer than he would have thought. There are challenges from all fronts. $45 is a good level but you will have to be patient.

2007-11-02

DON'T BUY

45.250

Chyanne Fickes

Do not buy stocks on the way down, as you can't tell when a low has been reached. Distribution centres still aren't fixed. Biggest issue with these companies, besides Wal-Mart, are rising food costs that will cut into margins.

2007-10-01

HOLD

45.200

Jonathen Wellum, B. Comm, B. Sc

Not yet.

2007-09-25

DON'T BUY

45.540

Alex Ruus

Still a bit more downside to come. They are going through a tough period. Think they have the right steps in place to make a recovery, but it takes time to turn a large ship like this around.

2007-09-04

DON'T BUY

44.800

Brian Acker, CA

He has a model price of $46.92 giving it a positive 5% differential. The model price has been steadily falling. (In Feb/07 it was $55.)

2007-08-30

Comment

51.500

Numbers just released were pretty good. Starting to get on track. Not out of the woods. Have a lot of brand equity in the President's Choice, location, real estate, etc.

2007-07-26

SELL

51.900

Wait and see until they actually produce 2 quarters in a row of good earnings. A “ show me” story.

2007-07-09

DON'T BUY

50.920

Loblaws (L-T) vs George Weston (WN-T). A lot of people are still pretty soured. No one is certain when the turnaround will come.

2007-06-19

DON'T BUY

49.750

Brian Acker, CA

Wrote off goodwill. His model price is $50.86, which is basically a 2% positive differential. However, the model price has been eroding. More write-offs are required and they need a turnaround in earnings.

2007-05-24

Comment

50.360

A great fan of this company, however PE ratio and forward earnings is about 19 X. Doesn't think it's worth this multiple. Would prefer at $5 less.

2007-05-16

BUY

50.480

Ian Nakamoto

Sales growth in the latest quarter was up 4%, store by store. Things are starting to turn around.

2007-05-14

DON'T BUY

50.480

Same-store sales were a little bit better on their recent reporting. Doesn't mean they are out of the woods yet. Far too early to know if they're going to be successful.

2007-05-01

WATCH

50.000

Ben Stadelmann

Trying to gear up for the competition with Wal-Mart. This has upset the applecart. Not sure if they are on the right track. Need to get back to their fundamentals.

2007-04-20

HOLD

46.130

A great franchise but unfortunately it went off the rails, partly internal and partly from threats of Wal-Mart competition. Think the threats have been overblown. Once the price pressures abate, could be a great buy.

2007-04-04

Comment

46.160

Jonathen Wellum, B. Comm, B. Sc

It can't be as bad as it has been for the last 18 months. He prefers George Weston (WN-T), a cheap way of owning this company. They shouldn't have the same operational difficulties this year.

2007-03-26

SELL

47.600

Kyle McKay

Had a myriad of problems last quarter. From a valuation point, it is still very expensive. Going forward, there will be a lot of pricing competition.

2007-03-19

DON'T BUY

46.850

Stephen Carlin

Would describe this is a good value trap. A lot of things going wrong with the company right now. Have announced restructuring after restructuring. No earnings growth.

2007-02-14

HOLD

46.810

Thoroughly disappointed in the execution that has taken place over the last couple of years. Would let time take its course rather than buying at this time. Will not be easy for them to extricate themselves. Closer to $40 could be an entry point.

2007-02-09

WATCH

51.240

Chris Smith

Reporting tomorrow and he is not expecting a lot of good news. Has not liked this company on a valuation basis for a long, long time. He is now starting to take a good hard look at this one. Would like to see the game plan laid out.

2007-02-07

DON'T BUY

51.420

The market is just waiting for better news. They are trying to do all the right things, but it will take a while.

2007-02-05

BUY

51.250

Michael Sprung

This is a turnaround story. Has a very strong brand franchise. Doing a lot to clean up its distribution supply sources as well as take care of its inventory problems.

2007-01-29

DON'T BUY

51.220

John Zechner

There is concern on Wal-Mart (WMT-N) coming into play. Their restructuring has cost them a little bit on the margins.

2007-01-22

HOLD

51.160

An excellent example of a when a stock sells off and has technically broken down. Had a long trend line up into 2005. Took a long drop and thinks it has now had an A, B, C correction. It is now showing a rally. He would treat it as a trade periodically.

2007-01-12

HOLD

50.900

Steve MacInnes

Problems they're running into and their lack of execution has affected their performance.

2007-01-11

BUY

48.390

Chart shows a massive down and the stock is too far below its 200-day moving average. Thinks the stock wants to rally. Money looking to move into safer areas might move into this one.

2006-12-20

DON'T BUY

48.390

Has probably seen its worst. Between losing market share, having poor earnings, change in management, supply problems, they now have Wal-Mart (WMT-N) opening super centres.

2006-12-20

HOLD

47.900

Robert Floyd

Had a few problems with this company in the past and has some question marks in regards to management. Distribution issues and some of their big box stores are somewhat confusing. Price is probably at the bottom, but issues still have to get resolved.

2006-12-19

SELL

47.850

John Zechner

Probably not a lot of downside to the name, but there are a lot of pricing pressures in the sector. Expect earnings will be dropping for the next year or two.

2006-12-12

HOLD

47.500

Michael Smedley

Closing 60 or more stores. Be patient.

2006-11-22

SELL

47.100

Peter Hodson

Management has changed. Wal-Mart is coming in. Still a premium price.

2006-11-20

DON'T BUY

46.920

Charles Lannon

Selling groceries pretty well anywhere in the northern hemisphere is a brutally competitive business, especially if Wal-Mart has their sights set on that market. Would steer clear of this one.

2006-11-17

DON'T BUY

45.470

Still have operational issues on. New management.

2006-11-14

DON'T BUY

45.930

Robert Floyd

Has been negative on them because earnings issues are not out of the woods yet. Distribution centres have been problematic. Fairly low margins, so any issues quickly turn into losses. Wants to see a nice quarter first.

2006-11-13

DON'T BUY

46.900

Stephen Carlin

Looks at stocks on a relative earnings growth scale and this one is not showing very well. Having some operational difficulties and are not able to show year-over-year earnings growth. Doesn’t think they can beat Wal-Mart (WMT-N).

2006-11-08

BUY

46.020

Doesn't think it will have trouble maintaining its leadership in the food distribution channel. Had a stumble which is a good time to buy. He owns George Weston (WN-T) which owns 67% of Loblaws.

2006-10-30

DON'T BUY

45.730

Jonathen Wellum, B. Comm, B. Sc

A great Canadian company, great brand name, great locations, and seems to be doing the right things to deal with competition, but execution has been terrible. Wait until they fix the logistical problems.

2006-10-24

BUY

45.520

Rob Callander

As an entry point, you could start nibbling at this time and then add at higher or lower prices. Have a pretty strong brand name. They will be able to compete with Wal-Mart.

2006-10-23

Comment

46.250

David Driscoll

This will require patience. Wal-Mart is starting to introduce superstores that will cause a decline in margins. Have a distribution and logistics problem.

2006-10-20

DON'T BUY

47.250

Brian Acker, CA

His model price is $56.78, an 18.5% positive differential. This is where he thinks the stock will hold its ground. They have to show a turnaround, something in the way of good news.

2006-10-17

HOLD

46.510

Down 30% this year. He is a little frustrated with it. Hasn't lost heart completely. Thinks they can turn this around.

2006-10-10

Comment

47.000

Benj Gallander

If you view the economy is not being good, this company will still be selling product. However, they do have competition. Making money and their balance sheet is in decent shape.

2006-10-06

DON'T BUY

47.170

Not an attraction for non-food stuff so he is having trouble with the whole concept. They are still having trouble with stock out problems.

2006-10-05

DON'T BUY

46.610

Neil Wickham

There probably will be a time in the next 6/12 months when it will be an attractive buy, but at likely lower prices. Have used all of their cash flow and some borrowed money in their expansion program. Have never generated net free cash flow.

2006-10-03

DON'T BUY

46.610

Chyanne Fickes

They are having labour problems right now. Recommends not buying now, wait for positive news.

2006-10-02

DON'T BUY

47.860

There has been a recent management change and he is not very happy about it. He is not warm on this stock.

2006-09-27

WATCH

47.800

Is down 15%, extreme competition with Wal-mart. They are watching it, it is high on their radar screen.

2006-09-26

BUY

50.500

Michael Sprung

Has initiated a strategy that is somewhat defensive to compete with the Wal-Mart's. There are a lot of good merchandising minds in this company. Good locations. Good price if you have a longer-term view.

2006-09-19

TOP PICK

50.680

Ross Healy

Has easy upside to $59/60.

2006-09-18

WAIT

50.970

To ensure that the last low is its bottom, you look for a volume increase. Doesn't think it has broken above the long-term trendline yet. When money gets nervous, it will go into this type of stock.

2006-09-15

DON'T BUY

50.740

Ian Nakamoto

This is a defensive play and the market seems to be gravitating towards defensive stocks. Feels there are better ways to play it until earnings get turned.

2006-09-11

HOLD

51.350

Chyanne Fickes

Would wait to see what their next earnings announcement looks like. If they continue to have problems, the stock will go lower.

2006-08-31

WAIT

50.260

Recently sold all his position. Problem has been, in gearing up for Wal-Mart, they tried to change from being a food retailer to a general merchandiser. Ended up with stock and inventory problems. Wait until they have actually proved the problems are behind them. Well managed and great long-term track record.

2006-08-25

DON'T BUY

50.180