| BUY | 8.420 | Michael Sprung | Recently been buying more. Stock was oversold and is selling at half of BV. Historically have been this low in the past but moved up to be selling at 1.5X BV. US subsidiary Lincoln caused most of their grief and hopefully this is now over. Core underlying earnings of roughly $.40 a quarter but with write-downs this year will be flat. Expecting earnings to be well in excess of $1 maybe $1.50 next year and going forward. | 2008-08-14 | |
| SELL | 9.610 | Pierre Bernard | (Market Call Minute.) Too complicated. | 2008-05-21 | |
| SELL | 12.280 | David Baskin | Insures bad drivers. Have had tremendous problems with their US units, particularly in taking reservations for accident claims that are inadequate. | 2008-02-19 | |
| DON'T BUY | 12.080 | Robert Floyd | Faced some issues in terms of write-downs and under writings that where over extended. Management is changing. Underwriting has been aggressive. Will probably have to show a couple of quarters of improving fundamentals before it will start moving forward. | 2008-01-15 | |
| SELL | 12.390 | Bill Carrigan | (Market Call Minute.) Wouldn't touch this one now. Something is still wrong. | 2008-01-09 | |
| BUY | 12.480 | John Stephenson | Have had to take all kinds of reserve hits on one of their US holdings, but the stock has been largely oversold. Has a BV of about $17.50, so is selling well under book value. | 2008-01-08 | |
| Comment | 11.220 | Ross Healy | Getting down to a level where it is beginning to be quite interesting. FMV for the stock is quite a bit higher. Have to wait to see if there's going to be any earnings forecast breakdown. | 2007-12-20 | |
| HOLD | 16.050 | Fred Ketchen | The problem with this company seems to be in their US operations and they have some challenges there. Give them a little bit more time to work through it. | 2007-11-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | 18.350 | Laura Wallace | Has had a disappointing performance, markets are tough in the US. Preference is to go with a larger cap name, although it is near book value which makes it more tempting. | 2007-10-15 | |
| DON'T BUY | 19.510 | John O'Connell, CFA | Property/casualty insurance. Have a lot of assets and revenues in the US, which can hurt them. Would be wary of property/casualty companies as their liabilities can come very quickly. | 2007-08-27 | |
| WAIT | 19.710 | Peter Gibson | Its valuation is such that it looks very inexpensive. Needs are little more profit growth. His “ price momentums techniques” is telling him to wait. Interest-rate sensitive. | 2007-07-16 | |
| BUY | 20.000 | Bruce Campbell | Very Cheap. Aggressive auto insurance, insuring the higher risk drivers. This will occasionally cause bad quarters when lots of accidents happen.
Worth having in your portfolio because it's statistically so cheap. Sell at 24 or 25.
This is a trading stock. | 2007-06-05 | |
| SELL | 20.520 | Pat McHugh | Involved with high-risk insurance. Has been having some problems. Recently had a quarter with a negative earnings surprise. | 2007-05-28 | |
| Comment | 21.540 | John Zechner | Would prefer ING (IIC-T), which has a better growth profile. Prices on Property & Casualty have been softening a little bit. Feels we are at the tail end of the current cycle. | 2007-04-02 | |
| BUY | 20.900 | Paul Harris, CFA | In the high-risk side of insurance. A very well run company, but volatile stock. Probably a very good buying opportunity. | 2007-03-16 | |
| BUY | 22.280 | David Driscoll | High risk play in the insurance industry. Has opportunity moving forward in both auto and trucking. Shows significant opportunities. | 2007-02-15 | |
| BUY | 22.930 | David Baskin | Company had an enormous credibility problem 2 or 3 years ago, because they had under-reserved for accident claims. Was clean for a couple of years, but took substantial losses in the last quarter, which killed their earnings. Doesn't expect it to pop back before the fall. If you are a patient investor, this is not a bad entry point. | 2007-02-13 | |
| BUY | 24.010 | Michael Sprung | Specialized insurance. Just acquired Mendota Insurance in the US. Believes that more than half of their business is done in the US. The stock has been fluctuating between $23 and $25. Excellent management. The market seems favourable to Property & Casualty insurers. | 2007-01-29 | |
| DON'T BUY | 24.310 | John Manley | Has had a gentle downtrend since October and has formed a bit of a channel. The last little while, it seems to be trying to form a higher low. Has held the 200 day moving average quite well. | 2007-01-24 | |
| WATCH | 25.300 | John Zechner | Likes the company, management and the financing of the business. There’s a lot more credibility in management. Will be interested in seeing the ING results tomorrow and what is going on in the P&C business. | 2006-11-08 | |
| BUY | 25.600 | Jeff Parent | Made new highs in October. 1st step is for it to go back to the $27 level on good volume. Not too much downside. Profit takers have been active in the last couple of weeks. Don't let it drop below $25. | 2006-11-02 | |
| BUY | 26.600 | Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | Has a very good long-term chart. Can see a few more dollars on the upside before strong resistance comes in. | 2006-10-11 | |
| HOLD | 26.160 | John Zechner | Feels the hard pricing on casualty insurance is coming down and competition will get tougher. Still likes this one. Good valuation. Near the end of a cyclical run in pricing, so upside gains are going to be less. If you have some gains, which consider lightening up a little. | 2006-09-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | 20.520 | Ian Nakamoto | An excellent company in a tough business. Sub standard underwriting business with high margins. Prefers life insurance over property and casualty. Too volatile. | 2006-08-03 | |
| WEAK BUY | 20.100 | John Zechner | Based on the market they are in, they look a little more stable than some of their competition. Have done a really nice job over the last couple of years. Earnings growth could be a little more challenged over the next year or two. | 2006-07-31 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 20.650 | Fred Pynn | (A Top Pick Mar 3/05. Up 3.3%.) Extremely cheap. Extremely cheap at 7 X earnings. Lots of upside over the long-term. | 2006-07-26 | |
| BUY | 19.650 | Gavin Graham | Insure drivers who have difficulty getting insurance. They charge higher rates. One of their difficulties was that they were the only property/casualty companies until they started getting competition from ING Canada. A well-run company. | 2006-07-06 | |
| DON'T BUY | 19.500 | Peter Gibson | 3 companies, Brookfield Asset Management (BAM.A-T), Home Capital (HCG-T) and Kingsway Financial (KFS-T) have been great calls for the last couple of years and all 3, in the last couple of months, have started to show weaker characteristics. Most of it is probably due to higher interest rates and prospects in the real estate market. | 2006-06-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | 20.050 | John Zechner | Likes management and the company. They have had a “hard insurance” market for the last couple of years. There has been a little more competition coming in. | 2006-06-07 | |
| TOP PICK | 20.550 | David Baskin | Non-standard auto insurance industry. The rap against them was that they had under reserved for losses. In the last few years their reserves have proven to be ample. Making money on the insurance part and with higher interest rates, they are making money on investments. Good price. | 2006-06-06 | |
| BUY | 22.150 | David Baskin | Good disclosure and easy to understand. Prefers this to Fairfax Financial (FFH-T). | 2006-05-25 | |
| BUY | 23.200 | Ron Meisels | This stock has done very well. There is a positive trend. Financial companies are doing well. It could go to the high twenties. | 2006-03-02 | |
| WATCH | 24.570 | Ross Healy | Not a fan of the financials, but this is one that has some upside potential. Fair market value is $41. Running right up against pretty tough resistance at about $24/25. It needs to break out here and if it does, that would be the time to buy. | 2006-02-06 | |
| DON'T BUY | 24.650 | Michael Sprung | This company has been amazing. They have been in a good part of the property/casualty market. Very well managed. The valuations are relatively high right now. Would look for a pullback of 20% or more before buying. | 2006-02-02 | |
| HOLD | 24.130 | David Baskin | They are in the dodgy end of the automobile insurance industry. A few years ago, they had under reserved and the stock was punished unmercifully and it took them 2 years to get out of the penalty box. They are now achieving a value comparable to their peers on a price to book value basis. Close to fair market value. | 2006-02-01 | |
| HOLD | 23.790 | Ian Nakamoto | And excellently run company. The property/casualty companies are fairly volatile. Would prefer another financial institution such as ING (IIC.L.V-T). | 2006-01-31 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 21.800 | Bruce Campbell | (A Top Pick Sept 12/05. Up 4%.) Looks very cheap. Seem to have got it right for a whole bunch of quarters in a row. Could be $27 stock. | 2005-11-21 | |
| TOP PICK | 21.800 | Werner Muehelemann | Expectations for earnings are very low. The market is expecting the same earnings as this year for next year. Stock is trading around 7.8 X next year's earnings, so it's extremely cheap. Thinks they can beat the earnings out there. | 2005-11-21 | |
| TOP PICK | 20.560 | Bill MacLachlan | Just announced a buy back of 5% of the shares. A stock that is shareholder friendly. Very cheap at a little more than 7 X earnings. It's in non-traditional auto insurance. Have very little reinsurance risk. | 2005-11-04 | |
| TOP PICK | 20.980 | Bruce Campbell | Non traditional auto insurance in both Canada and the US. Very small exposure/loss to the hurricane Katrina. Stock was a little bit weak on that basis. Trades at not very much above book and at single digit earnings multiples. | 2005-09-12 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 20.800 | Paul Harris, CFA | In a very competitive area from a pricing point of view, but are one of the premier companies in the non-standard auto. A volatile stock. Well run. Fairly priced at these levels. If you see a hiccup, it would be a good time to buy. | 2005-06-30 | |
| TOP PICK | 20.560 | Bruce Campbell | Looking at financial services, it's by far the cheapest stock. They'll earn $2.50 this year. Looks like some decent growth. 8 X earnings. | 2005-06-17 | |
| BUY | 21.180 | David Baskin | Had a terrific quarter. For the first time ever, it actually reversed reserves it had made for accidents. Strong management and the stock still has some way to run. | 2005-06-09 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 19.910 | David Baskin | (A Top Pick Mar 29/05. Up 7.3%.) Very pleased with their latest results. Reversed some reserves that they had. Premium growth wasn't very high. | 2005-05-24 | |
| BUY | 20.090 | David Baskin | Thought they had terrific earnings and the stock went up---for about 10 minutes. Irritated that the market didn't acknlowledge it. A good buy. | 2005-05-10 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 19.190 | David Baskin | (A Top Pick Feb 28/05. Down 3%.) Waiting to see what this quarter brings. There were some pretty good earnings from Allstate (ALL-N) which leads him to believe that this company will have a pretty good quarter. Thinks the stock is cheap on a fundamental basis. | 2005-04-21 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 19.290 | Bruce Campbell | A high risk insurer for uninsurable drivers. This can be very profitable. Had hiccups during their expansion in the US last year. A good entry point. Try to buy on a weak day. | 2005-04-20 | |
| TOP PICK | 18.550 | David Baskin | Increased their reserves. Was really put in the penalty box and fell off the cliff about a year and a half ago. | 2005-03-29 | |
| BUY | 18.180 | Bill MacLachlan | Think highly of this company. Has a lot of potential. Pull back gives a good opportunity to BUY. | 2005-03-24 | |
| BUY | 18.320 | Gavin Graham | Does a really good job in a high risk driver area. Flush with cash. Price has dropped, so it's a buying opportunity. | 2005-03-22 | |
| BUY | 19.240 | Ray Steele | Outlook is quite positive. Met their expectations on earnings. | 2005-03-17 | |
| TOP PICK | 19.930 | Fred Pynn | Will be a good growth potential this year. Costs have gotten under control. | 2005-03-03 | |
| TOP PICK | 19.420 | Bill Shaw | Had some issues with their reserves, but thinks that is finally behind them. The combined ratio (ratio of expenses paid out to premiums taken in is finally getting a little more respectable and is now below 100. Forcasting $2.50 in a go forward basis. Just instituted a dividend of roughly 1%. | 2005-02-22 | |
| HOLD | 19.950 | Bruce Campbell | Gettin close to being fully valued. | 2005-02-16 | |
| DON'T BUY | 19.700 | John Zechner | Just announced some great earnings and if you look deeper into the earnings, they had a zero tax rate which is how they hit their EPS number. The problem in the short term is that some of their insurance markets are starting to roll over. A cyclical business. | 2005-02-14 | |
| BUY | 19.800 | David Baskin | A really good company. The steps that the Ontario government have taken to crack down on fraud have been beneficial. | 2005-02-08 | |
| HOLD | 19.210 | Veronika Hirsch | Has had so many disappointing quarters that the market is cautious and not favourably inclined to management. The cycle has turned. If you own, give them another quarter. A cheap stock. | 2005-01-28 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 18.400 | David Baskin | (A Top Pick Oct 12/04. Up 9.5%.) All results in 2004 have exceeded expectations. | 2004-12-16 | |
| TOP PICK | 18.530 | Fred Pynn | Management has been able to stabilize the situation. The basic insurance business is operating profitably plus they have got their investment business on top of that. Cheap. Good growth. | 2004-11-24 | |
| BUY | 18.630 | John Zechner | PE ratio is around 9. Has solid 4 quarters of results in both revenue and profit growth, but the stock doesn't move in relation to this. Has a bit of a credibility issue the last couple of years. Very cheap. Should break out of this trading range. | 2004-11-11 | |
| BUY | 17.700 | Ray Steele | With all the problems of Enron, hurricanes, etc. insurance companies have been able to raise their rates. Outlook continues to be quite positive. | 2004-11-03 | |
| BUY | 16.250 | Ian Nakamoto | A good time to buy. | 2004-11-02 | |
| TOP PICK | 16.800 | David Baskin | Lost a lot of credibility a year ago when they were forced to take higher reserves for accidents. Think they have their act together now. | 2004-10-12 | |
| WEAK BUY | 16.560 | Gordon Higgins, CA, MBA, CFA | Have had a lot of misses. Trying to build credibility. Looks cheap but watch out for the Whoops factor. Once they get a few good quarters, the stock could appreciate 20%. | 2004-09-30 | |
| WEAK BUY | 15.110 | Ian Nakamoto | An excellent company. The Property/Casualty area is very volatile. The earnings stream can also be volatile. | 2004-07-27 | |
| BUY | 15.190 | Michael Sprung | Good value here. Expects their earnings will be fairly good going forward. | 2004-07-26 | |
| TOP PICK | 15.300 | Bill Shaw | Reserve issue is being resolved. May see lift in stock price. Trading at 7.5 times percent forwards earning. | 2004-06-11 | |
| DON'T BUY | 14.600 | Brian Acker, CA | Tend not to buy insurance companies. Specializes in high risk drivers and are very cyclical in nature. Could treat as a trade between $13.60 and $17. | 2004-06-03 | |
| TOP PICK | 14.600 | Bruce Campbell | Huge growth. Finally seem to be getting their combined ratio under control in the last quarter. Earns $2 this year and $2.20 next. | 2004-06-03 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 14.830 | Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | Likes it technically, but it has been stuck in the mud. Has as significant overhead resistance at around $16. | 2004-05-31 | |
| BUY | 14.900 | Fred Pynn | Has expanded rapidly over the last several years which has resulted in a lot of volatility. Started to see some improvement in the last quarter. Very attractively valued. | 2004-05-25 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 14.950 | Michael Sprung | (Past top pick Feb 9/ 2004 up 1.5%) This company is doing well. Hoping to see good results in combined ratio. Potential for real profit. Maintaining hold. | 2004-03-30 | |
| DON'T BUY | 15.050 | Kyle McKay | Has been a very troubled company. Some credibility issues with management. | 2004-03-09 | |
| DON'T BUY | 14.900 | Peter Hodson | You never know what problems are going to hit, so not happy about the reliability. They consistently miss earnings, there's always questions about accounting and their reserve situation is very unclear. | 2004-03-02 | |
| DON'T BUY | 15.000 | Jonathen Wellum, B. Comm, B. Sc | When buying insurance companies, you have to make sure they are astute at pricing risks. Basically has grown through acquisitions. Too many adjustments to their reserves. | 2004-02-20 | |
| WEAK BUY | 14.900 | Bruce Campbell | A good entry point. Numbers were disappointing last week in that they had to increase their reserves. Its trading at almost book value. | 2004-02-19 | |
| TOP PICK | 14.370 | Michael Sprung | Participates in a less price sensitive part of the market. Selling at close to book value of $13. Profitable company. | 2004-02-09 | |
| VAGUE | 14.460 | Gavin Graham | Well run operation. Never going to have a high multiple, because of the nature of the business. | 2004-02-03 | |
| DON'T BUY | 14.230 | Brian Acker, CA | Model price of around $25. Not big fans of insurance companies. | 2004-01-30 | |
| TOP PICK | 14.080 | Michael Sprung | Selling at a very modest premium to book value @ $14 range. Could earn$2 and next year $3. A lot of underlying earnings power. Good respect for management. | 2004-01-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | 14.400 | Mike Weir | It seems that every couple of years they run into some reserve problems. Too risky. | 2004-01-26 | |
| BUY | 14.140 | David Baskin | Company is expecting their loss ratio will be much improved this year. Believes the fair market value is $20 but will have to do well for one or two quarters to make believers. | 2004-01-22 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 13.840 | David Taylor, MBA, CFA | (A past top pick Nov 17/03. Up 6.7%.) The head of the US division has been asked to step down and the stock took a big drop. Because it is so cheap, they are trying to buy more now. | 2004-01-14 | |
| WAIT | 13.840 | Gavin Graham | The person running me US operations just resigned, so the stock got hit. A very efficient company. | 2004-01-14 | |
| WEAK BUY | 14.300 | Brian Acker, CA | Model price of $28. Very high risk stock. Has a boom/ bust cycle. | 2003-12-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | 14.220 | Jonathen Wellum, B. Comm, B. Sc | A smaller company and a tough market for small companies. There are better companies available. | 2003-12-12 | |
| BUY | 14.750 | David Baskin | Has been oversold. Cheap on a price to book value and a price to earnings basis. | 2003-12-09 | |
| WAIT | 14.990 | Laura Wallace | Missed two quarters in a row in their earnings estimates. The stock is in a “ shown me” mode. Until they can get a couple of quarters meeting expectations, the stock could tread water. Not expensive. | 2003-12-01 | |
| TOP PICK | 14.990 | Michael Sprung | Feels they are putting their house in order. We'll probably earn a $1.85 this year and in excess of $2 next year. | 2003-12-01 | |
| BUY | 13.600 | Brendan Kyne | Likes the story. In a good area where the market is growing. A trading stock. If you buy here, sell at $17. | 2003-11-19 | |
| TOP PICK | 13.450 | David Taylor, MBA, CFA | Trades at 6/7 X earnings. Trades at book value. 15% ROE. | 2003-11-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | 13.380 | Mark Jackson, CFA | Has not been a favourite. Grows by acquisition and new share issues rather than organically. A relatively low-margin business. Not sure where the Ontario auto insurance is going. | 2003-11-04 | |
| BUY | 13.690 | David Baskin | Earnings were relatively solid. Has a history of negative surprises, but you are buying at 7 X earnings, which gives a good cushion. Trading inexpensively compared to its peers in the US. | 2003-10-28 | |
| DON'T BUY | 13.000 | Brian Acker, CA | Undervalued according to their model price, but not interested in general insurance companies. | 2003-10-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | 12.980 | Laura Wallace | Analysts seem to be discouraged with the company with the guidance they've provided and their inability to create earnings. Prefers others. | 2003-10-15 | |
| TOP PICK | 13.050 | Bill Shaw | Revised his earnings estimates to two dollars, which is a multiple in the 6 1/2 range. Trading near book value. | 2003-10-14 | |
| BUY | 13.150 | Ross Healy | Stock got hit very hard. Had an earnings disappointment, but supposedly this is only short-term. An ideal entry point from a technical perspective would be $10. | 2003-10-09 | |
| BUY | 12.420 | John Zechner | The company just can't seem to get itself going. Extremely cheap stock at this price. Good company and good management. Could reach the high teens a year from now. Trading below book value. | 2003-10-02 | |
| DON'T BUY | 12.700 | Michael Smedley | Has been under pressure and will stay under pressure for the time being. Seems to make too many acquisitions. | 2003-09-30 | |
| DON'T BUY | 13.030 | Mike Weir | Quite lumpy in its insurance business. Could be a very rocky ride. | 2003-09-29 | |
Experts that have talked about Kingsway Financial Services
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