| TOP PICK | 5.850 | Norman Levine | Lumber based in B.C. with operations in B.C. and Northwest US. Only one that is currently profitable. Only one with no debt. Fabulous management. Been taking advantage of others problems by upgrading their mills and buying mills that are going out of business. Lumber prices and US housing has bottomed. China will have to do a lot of rebuilding and may be importing. | 2008-05-28 | |
| BUY | 5.950 | Norman Levine | Lumber has not been good because housing starts has been going down and Cdn$ has been high. However, lumber seems to have bottomed out and broken its downtrend. Housing stocks have basically stopped going down. This is one of the best plays. Very little debt. Good management and operations on both sides of the border. | 2008-04-10 | |
| DON'T BUY | 5.400 | Benj Gallander | Buy if you want a beaten down sector. Be wary of debt levels. Prefers Abitibibowater (ABH-T). Wouldn’t really buy anything in this sector. | 2008-03-25 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 8.100 | Michael Sprung | (A Top Pick April 21/06. Up 9.3%.) Had pick on the basis of a softwood lumber resolution being favourable to them. Sold his holdings at around $8. | 2007-04-10 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 8.050 | Norman Levine | (A Top Pick April 4/06. Up 11.8%.) The best run of the Canadian Forest companies. Basically now net debt. Acquired a number of mills/companies in northwest US. | 2007-03-28 | |
| Comment | 8.100 | Michael Sprung | Getting close to a price were he would consider starting taking profits, before it hits $9 in any case. The softwood lumber deal did not have the impact that he thought it would. With a slowdown in housing starts in the US, he is not looking for a strong play in lumber. | 2007-02-20 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 7.450 | Michael Sprung | (A Top Pick Feb 2/06. Up 6.7%.) In the meantime, it paid a good dividend. This is the last one he holds in this sector and he is evaluating it right now. Sells at a significant discount to book value. The problem is, predicting lumber prices. | 2007-01-29 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 7.150 | Michael Sprung | (A Top Pick Jan 6/06. No change.) Good timber producer. Would have benefited proportionately more than others on the softwood lumber pay back. This is happening, but now there is the slowdown in the US housing market. Holding, but not sure for how long. | 2006-12-08 | |
| HOLD | 6.600 | Michael Sprung | The impact of the US housing market will not be good for them. Still waiting for the settlement cheque regarding the lumber dispute. They should get a fairly large amount. | 2006-11-14 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 6.600 | Norman Levine | (A Top Pick Nov 1/05. Up 0.8%.) Pristine balance sheet. About to receive a huge payment from the refund of softwood lumber duties, which they will use to expand and refurbish. Still a buy. | 2006-11-14 | |
| BUY | 6.510 | Norman Levine | It has been a disappointing stock. The lumber dispute and slowdown in the US housing market has hurt it. As a long term investment it looks positive. Recommends buying and keeping for a long term investor and selling if you are a short term investor. | 2006-09-27 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 6.280 | Michael Sprung | (A Top Pick Mar 23/06. Down 12.5%.) Becoming even more interesting, particularly with all the news about the softwood lumber settlement. Well-positioned. | 2006-07-18 | |
| TOP PICK | 7.410 | Michael Sprung | Likes the outlook for lumber. Will be in sharp demand this summer and fall. There will be a lot of rebuilding going on in the US. Has been slowly restructured and will be more profitable than it has. On any softwood lumber agreement, they have more duties on deposit proportionately than any other company. | 2006-04-21 | |
| DON'T BUY | 7.500 | David Driscoll | This is a difficult time for any of the paper stocks. Highly leveraged to the time they are not getting the kind of payback from price appreciation. Would avoid the entire sector right now. | 2006-04-06 | |
| TOP PICK | 7.200 | Norman Levine | Likes western lumber companies and this is his favourite. Has the best management in the forest products industry. Most conservative balance sheet with virtually no debt. Sells around book value. Selling off surplus assets. Buying mills in the US Northwest. Getting close to a solution in the softwood lumber dispute. | 2006-04-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | 7.680 | Paul Harris, CFA | The trouble with pulp and paper is the massive overcapacity in the business. Canadian companies are suffering from having old manufacturing equipment and their cost of production is much higher. | 2006-03-30 | |
| TOP PICK | 7.220 | Michael Sprung | If the softwood lumber dispute is solved, this is the company that has the most duties deposited proportionately of any other Canadian company. He likes West Coast lumber producers right now. | 2006-03-23 | |
| TOP PICK | 6.980 | Michael Sprung | A very ignored stock in the forest product sector. Has 70% exposure to lumber, 15% to logs. Right now, this company has a larger claim to the duties that had been prepaid into the US, relatively speaking, to any other company. It would come to about $2 a share. He is bullish on lumber products going into next year. Selling below book value. Has the ability to earn $.70/1.00 next year. | 2006-02-02 | |
| TOP PICK | 7.150 | Michael Sprung | Selling at a slight discount to book value. Well exposed in the Western lumber situation and the company has been going under a great deal of restructuring. Expect that the building cycle will really pick up next year. Their credit in prepaid duties to the US is about $85 million US which works out to be about $2 a share. Has a very clean balance sheet. | 2006-01-06 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 7.100 | Michael Sprung | (A Top Pick Oct 11/05. Up 3.7%.) There has just been a cut in softwood duties. Building materials are going to be in great demand for the next while. If the duties ever get rebated back, this company will be one of the biggest beneficiaries. Can see more upside in the stock. | 2005-12-07 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 6.700 | Norman Levine | (A Top Pick Sept 20/05. No change.) This stock, along with other Western lumber companies, will probably stay flat until the softwood lumber dispute is solved. Trading below book value. Good management. | 2005-12-05 | |
| TOP PICK | 6.550 | Norman Levine | A Vancouver based lumber company with operations in B.C. and the US. Sells at about $6.50 and has a book value of over $8. Has been selling off unprofitable assets and buying mills in the US. Should be rid of all of its debt by next year. If the softwood lumber dispute gets settled, the stock will jump overnight and you won't get a chance to buy. | 2005-11-01 | |
| TOP PICK | 6.750 | Michael Sprung | In the midst of controversy with the softwood lumber. No one knows which side it's going to win. If in Canada's favour, this company probably has more to gain than any other forest product company. Probably worth a couple of $'s a share. Likes lumber right now and there's probably going to be a strong demand for the next few years. Earnings are about $0.50 this year and closer to $1 next year. | 2005-10-11 | |
| TOP PICK | 6.690 | Norman Levine | Selling below book value. Excellent management. The price of lumber is moving up and will do well with the building of the south and the probable elimination of tarrifs. Stock hasn't done anything so this is a buying opportunity. | 2005-09-20 | |
| VAGUE | 7.390 | Bill Harris | If there was even a hint that interest rates in the US could go up, forestry stocks would be vulnerable. There could be consolidation in this sector and more M&A. If so, the stock could do well. | 2005-01-07 | |
| BUY | 6.800 | Norman Levine | Not a fan of the forest product sector, buy thinks that the outlook for "wood products" is the best in the whole sector and that the B.C. producers do a better job, so prefers International Forest. | 2005-01-05 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 7.700 | Norman Levine | (A Top Pick July 19/04. Up 4.7%.) Good management. No debt. Have tons of real estate where the book value is severely understated | 2004-09-28 | |
| TOP PICK | 7.950 | Norman Levine | Has an excellent balance sheet with hardly any debt. Excellent management. Prices are strong and expected to remain strong. Recently made some US sawmills acquisitions. | 2004-09-08 | |
| TOP PICK | 7.400 | Norman Levine | Have just made a bid for Crown forest products in Washington state which will give them a US base for sawmills, lumber, etc. Sells at a few pennies above book value. Has a lot of cash. | 2004-07-19 | |
| HOLD | 6.800 | Michael Sprung | Main holding in forrest products area. Like lumber and building products. Earnings couldbe quite strong. | 2004-03-30 | |
| BUY | 6.550 | Norman Levine | Sells below book value. Clean balance sheet. Valuable real estate assets. | 2004-02-23 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 5.950 | Michael Sprung | (Past top pick November 11 ,up 17%) Continuing to hold. Good pricing in the underlying wood products. Cheap stock. | 2004-02-09 | |
| DON'T BUY | 5.990 | David Taylor, MBA, CFA | Forest companies, over a full cycle, will not make you much money. Many do well in the short term, especially if they lumber issue is settled. | 2004-01-14 | |
| TOP PICK | 5.330 | Michael Sprung | Japanese market might be picking up a little bit. Will value is well over $7. Selling at just over 2X cash flow. Expects some mergers in the lumber industry on the West Coast, which will bring some discipline back to this market. | 2003-12-01 | |
| TOP PICK | 5.100 | Michael Sprung | Probably going to lose a little bit of money this year, but the book value is in excess of $7.80 and has seen net asset values as high as $15. Forecasts of higher lumber prices are currently being made. Good balance sheet. | 2003-11-11 | |
| BUY | 4.310 | Mike Weir | Low P/E and debt. Should do well. | 2002-08-26 | |
| BUY | 4.260 | Ray Steele | Have to have a long term view. Very cheap. | 2001-12-21 | |
| DON'T BUY | 4.550 | Ted Macklin | Commodity prices are terrible now. Prefers Abitibi or Domtar. | 2001-07-31 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 4.800 | Ray Steele | (Was a top pick on Aug 4/00 up 20%) Still likes. | 2001-07-11 | |
| BUY | 4.320 | Ray Steele | Housing is still strong, so should do well. Possible takeover target. Well run. Hold for mid/long term. | 2001-06-22 | |
| BUY | 5.250 | John Embry | Probably at its bottom now. Good mngmnt. | 2001-06-12 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 4.800 | Malvin Spooner | (Was a top pick on Dec 9 up 18%) Still inexpensive. | 2001-04-04 | |
| TOP PICK | 4.300 | Michael Sprung | A bargain right now. $8 book value and selling around $4. Cash flow of $1 a share and no debt | 2001-01-24 | |
| BUY | 4.020 | John Zechner | Lumber industry at its low | 2001-01-23 | |
| TOP PICK | 3.900 | Malvin Spooner | Expects this to rebound very soon | 2000-12-29 | |
Experts that have talked about International Forest Products (A)
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