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| PAST TOP PICK | 166.720 | David Baskin | (A Top Pick Aug 24/06. Up 63%%.) Chose it because it was a takeout candidate, which happened. | 2007-08-23 | |
| Comment | 166.720 | Alex Ruus | Close to being taken over. | 2007-07-18 | |
| Comment | 167.800 | James Cole, BA, CFA | Is in the process of being taken over. Doesn't expect any competing offers.It will stay at it's current level, subject to the difference in the Canadian US dollar. | 2007-06-12 | |
| Comment | 169.180 | Robert Floyd | Takeover target by Sweden's SSAB who want to sell their tube unit. An interesting strategy. A well-run company. On valuation, you are at the top of the cycle for takeout prices. If you own, wait for the final bit. | 2007-05-30 | |
| Comment | 169.640 | Laura Wallace | Takeover for $180. Will probably take some time to get the deal completed | 2007-05-23 | |
| HOLD | 130.030 | Brad Willock | Has gone up because of a rampant consolidation in the materials sector, specifically steel and metals. Big dividend yield. Have some really good businesses. | 2007-03-22 | |
| DON'T BUY | 124.500 | Bruce Campbell | Pipe side is okay, but he worries about steel prices. Fairly fully valued. | 2007-03-06 | |
| HOLD | 129.630 | David Burrows | The steel group has continued to perform very well. Pricing has been firm and the demand is very strong. | 2007-02-20 | |
| Comment | 106.120 | Norman Levine | It’s in the steel business which has its ups and downs and also their major end market is the oil services, where drilling has been cut back. A great company and has had a huge run. | 2006-12-20 | |
| Comment | 119.900 | Brad Willock | Has had a pretty good run since October. What’s moving the steel sector is the prospect that private equity might get involved with some of the cheap companies, or that they might buy each other. | 2006-12-11 | |
| WAIT | 122.000 | Gavin Graham | If you like the oil industry and you think there’s going to be more pipeline, then you should be looking at this. Looks cheap with a 7.5 P/E. Some analysts are predicting lower earnings next year and the stock has run up in the last few months, so hold off in the short term. | 2006-12-07 | |
| BUY | 120.950 | Ross Healy | With the take over of steel companies in the international arena, this is fairly attractive. Also have a clear possibility of 1 or 2 pipelines. | 2006-12-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | 104.600 | Robert Floyd | A very well run company. Service a lot of different markets, tubular, plate, etc. Looking to make another acquisition. Expects the 4th quarter will be a little bit problematic. | 2006-11-13 | |
| BUY | 102.760 | David Baskin | Manufacturer of tubular products. Would not be involved in any consolidation. Could be a possible takeover. | 2006-10-23 | |
| WEAK BUY | 103.200 | John Zechner | A little concerned about the steel market based on his overall economic view. However, this company has raised guidance again. They are in the right spot with tubular pipe, etc. Looks like one of the better stories. | 2006-10-16 | |
| Comment | 98.710 | Norman Levine | Great steel company. Very well run. Products of tubular steel and pipelines are in the hot spot. With a drop off in energy prices and steel, the stock has come off. Making an acquisition that will be synergetic. Not sure if now is the time to get into steel stocks. | 2006-10-10 | |
| HOLD | 96.550 | David Baskin | He still likes this stock. In the short term natural gas growth will be constrained. In the long term it will do well. Holders may see some sogginess in the next 6 months. It may be a takeover candiate | 2006-09-28 | |
| BUY | 98.100 | Ian Nakamoto | The P/E for the last 3/4 years has been remarkably low. Company continues to do well. Good value play. Excellent company, excellent valuation. Very volatile. | 2006-09-11 | |
| WEAK BUY | 98.100 | Bruce Campbell | Buying NS Group (NSS-N), a US based tube manufacturer. Good in that it is geographically diverse, tubular instead of plate and its accretive. Slowing economic growth can start to impact them. He has exited all his steels, but with this pullback, it it may not be a bad entry point. | 2006-09-11 | |
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| DON'T BUY | 103.390 | Chris Smith | Great operation, management, assets and low-cost, but he wouldn't be interested in playing the steels. | 2006-08-28 | |
| TOP PICK | 101.430 | David Baskin | All 3 Top Picks are tremendous cash flow generators that are not getting any respect from the market. Tremendous steel company. Tubular steel products. $600 million of cash on the balance sheet. Will likely make $18 this year so they are trading at 6 X earnings. | 2006-08-24 | |
| WAIT | 108.070 | David Cockfield | With steel production coming on in China, there could be some major competition. Trades at a very reasonable multiple. Hopes that they will split the stock. A dividend increase could lure him back into the stock. Any announcements on the Mackenzie pipeline could lift this stock. | 2006-08-16 | |
| BUY | 104.470 | David Baskin | Good exposure to the oilfield and pipeline industry as well as the construction in the oil sands. Earnings were very good. Price is reasonable. | 2006-07-27 | |
| DON'T BUY | 99.480 | Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | Steel stocks globally show the same chart pattern. Expects that it could come back to about $70. | 2006-07-24 | |
| DON'T BUY | 105.160 | Peter Gibson | This stock looks dreadful to him. The profit decline is very severe. Expect there will be more downside. | 2006-06-22 | |
| Comment | 91.930 | Peter Brieger | This has always appealed to him conceptually, but he has always missed it. The future looks very bright for it. Hasn't done enough homework to make a recommendation. | 2006-06-12 | |
| BUY | 97.610 | Gordon Higgins, CA, MBA | Trading around 7/8 X earnings. They manufacture large pipe for moving oil/gas so if some pipelines goes through, they will be the major beneficiary. They have a solid earnings outlook for the next several years. | 2006-06-07 | |
| BUY | 101.890 | David Baskin | Likes the tubular products. Thinks this will be a strong business as far as the eye can see. There is a tremendous amount of infrastructure that has to be developed involving the oil sands which will go on for 10/20/30 years. | 2006-06-06 | |
| BUY | 101.380 | David Baskin | Makes tubular steel products for the oil/gas industry. A good company. Cyclical. Good price. | 2006-05-25 | |
| BUY | 101.380 | David Driscoll | A good quality company. It could fall further so buy only half a position and then pick away at it over time. | 2006-05-25 | |
| BUY | 102.860 | Bruce Campbell | Pricing for steel looks better in the short-term. The next couple of quarters will show very good earnings. | 2006-05-23 | |
| DON'T BUY | 102.860 | Michael Sprung | Relatively expensive. Has been earning peak earnings up to now. There are still a lot of positive things that can happen to this company. | 2006-05-23 | |
| BUY | 108.550 | Brian Acker, CA | His model price is $132.40 which is a positive 22% differential. If it gets back to $97, that would be a great buy. | 2006-04-27 | |
| BUY | 115.500 | John Zechner | The pipe market is still very strong and the steel market is starting to come back again. Nervousness in the market where these companies have beaten the numbers and yet they don't up the annual guidance. A quality and good play in the sector. There will be a lot of volatility. | 2006-04-26 | |
| HOLD | 121.020 | Michael Smedley | One kind. Extremely high-quality. In a very desirable space. Too pricey for him to buy but would hold it. | 2006-04-20 | |
| DON'T BUY | 120.360 | Werner Muehelemann | Not a fan of this company. Great company with very solid operations but the valuation is too high. | 2006-04-12 | |
| BUY | 120.380 | David Burrows | At the top as far as quality goes in Canadian steel. Not expensive at about 10 X earnings. Likes the outlook on energy, which will keep upper pressure on steel. | 2006-04-10 | |
| DON'T BUY | 124.140 | Michael Sprung | Steel has been the place to be. Would not look to be getting in at the top of the market where it is now. China is producing more and more steel and all that would be needed would be a slowdown in the economy which could be a problem. | 2006-03-23 | |
| DON'T BUY | 116.760 | Norman Levine | The major supplier to the oil/gas industry and pipelines. Feels that commodity prices are starting to get into a dangerous territory and expects to see some softening. If you own, consider taking some profits. | 2006-03-21 | |
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| BUY | 116.850 | Peter Brieger | He likes it. It is highly likely it will split because it's over $100. It's a leader in the field. | 2006-03-13 | |
| DON'T BUY | 113.080 | Kyle McKay | He has owned this stock in the past. Dramatic appreciation of this stock in the last few months. It is a very volatile stock. It has benefitted from a tubal demand from oil and gas. At current prices stock is some what overvalued. | 2006-03-07 | |
| HOLD | 109.500 | Norman Levine | Mackenzie pipeline isn't going anywhere, but this company is the major beneficiary of the high energy prices because they are the pipe supplier for the oil and energy businesses. They used to own it, but sold it, and it kept on going. | 2006-02-28 | |
| HOLD | 110.900 | David Burrows | This is a steel stock. Recommends holding it for now if you own. | 2006-02-27 | |
| BUY | 107.180 | Gordon Higgins, CA, MBA | He likes this stock. It is trading 10 times its earning. It is a good buy. | 2006-02-21 | |
| WEAK BUY | 108.000 | Ross Healy | If one of the big pipelines goes through, this is a stock you would want to be in. The fair market value, on current analysts estimates, is over $400. Chasing stocks at this level would be scary for him. | 2006-02-06 | |
| DON'T BUY | 93.130 | Ron Meisels | Support level is about $87/88. The stock is a little bit extended. Would but at $85. | 2005-12-15 | |
| DON'T BUY | 89.950 | David Cockfield | Looks incredibly expensive. Had a recent bounce because Dofasco's being taken out. There's huge demand in piping. China is bringing on their new mills. | 2005-11-25 | |
| WEAK BUY | 86.000 | Ian Nakamoto | A very volatile stock, so would hold off a little bit here. If you have a long term view of a year or two and you can live with the volatility, he would buy it here. | 2005-11-02 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 80.860 | Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | Building pipelines is a fabulous business right now as that is what we need a lot of. The charts are fabulous. Getting near the top of the trend channel but any kind of pullback to the supporting trend line would be a good buying opportunity. A good story. | 2005-09-28 | |
| WEAK BUY | 78.830 | Ross Healy | If we get a pipeline, it'll be a great stock. The McKenzie pipeline is still in a regulatory snafu. | 2005-09-14 | |
| BUY | 74.500 | David Taylor, MBA, CFA | Great company. Just sold his shares because of other opportunities. Dirt cheap. Good management. | 2005-08-29 | |
| BUY | 68.390 | Gavin Graham | This is a steel and oil play. The leader in tubular steel for oil pipes. Good management. | 2005-08-08 | |
| BUY | 68.390 | Peter Gibson | Has some fabulous characteristics. Rolled mill products doesn't expose the company to the over capacity problem from China. | 2005-08-05 | |
| DON'T BUY | 57.060 | Bruce Campbell | Steel prices have rolled over in the last while. Probably a bit of a bounce coming, so there could be one more positive trade in this stock. Fairly risky. | 2005-07-14 | |
| DON'T BUY | 53.200 | David Chapman | Not a particularily good chart. Each peak is lower than the previous one. Also lows are lower. It's in a downtrend. | 2005-07-04 | |
| DON'T BUY | 53.600 | David Baskin | There has been a terrific run on all the steel companies, but steel prices globally are starting to come down. Wouldn't be surprised to see this one go back down to the $40 range. | 2005-06-23 | |
| DON'T BUY | 56.110 | Jean-Francois Tardif | Had a huge run. The price of steel has been coming down and yet matalurgical coal and iron ore prices have gone up. Thinks they will have lower earnings going forward. Expects more downside. He is shorting in his fund. | 2005-06-21 | |
| BUY | 64.560 | Pierre Bernard | Based on their forward earnings, it is a buy. Well managed. You could get a 15% increase from the current price. | 2005-05-31 | |
| VAGUE | 57.190 | Bruce Campbell | The group including Gerdau Ameristeel (GNA-T), Algoma (AGA-T), Ipsco (IPS-T) and Dofasco (DFS-T) to a lesser extent has come off of its peak. Looks like steel prices have peaked for the cycle yet these stocks are extremely statistically cheap. Could be some activity like takeovers, as cash builds up. Find one that is cheap and could be taken over. | 2005-05-16 | |
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| BUY | 62.300 | Brian Acker, CA | We are at a valuation high on cyclicals. Any time there is a report on a slowdown that will question the earnings the stock will tank like crazy. Based on earnings for '05 and '06, a year out from now, the stock should be anywhere from $72 to $80. All kinds of downside if we go into recession. | 2005-05-05 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 58.700 | Michael Sprung | (A Top Pick Oct 21/04. Up 88%.) Has had a tremendous run, but may be overpriced now. | 2005-04-28 | |
| BUY on WEAKNESS | 63.300 | Peter Brieger | The normalized long term earnings is about $7. Look at paying at about 8/9 X's, preferably in the mid $50's. With steel prices coming down next year, would wait for further pull backs. | 2005-04-26 | |
| PAST TOP PICK | 65.170 | David Taylor, MBA, CFA | (A Top PIck Feb 2/05. Up 8%.) Sold 1/3 of their position at $72 and bought more when it dropped back to the $50 range. Builds plate for shipe, Caterpillar Tractors, rail cars, etc. Plate market is very strong. | 2005-04-25 | |
| BUY | 62.850 | John Sinkins, CFA | Steel stocks have been exceptionally strong in the last couple of years. There is a real mixed message in the sector with regards to China. Will they need steel or will they do their own production and exporting? Prefers Ipsco because they make steel for the oil/gas industry. | 2005-04-04 | |
| WEAK BUY | 63.750 | Paul Harris, CFA | A much better company than a lot of the others. One of the problems with the steel industry is that steel has moved up a lot over the last little while and the whole push into China. China was a net importer of steel and is now a net exporter which will push down the prices. | 2005-03-28 | |
| HOLD | 66.400 | David Burrows | Has been the best performer in the Canadian steel market. Looks very strong. | 2005-03-14 | |
| DON'T BUY | 67.350 | Michael Smedley | Long term he thinks it's good, but he's staying away from it for now. | 2005-03-09 | |
| SELL | 67.350 | John Zechner | Would be a seller of all steel stocks at this time. A great company and they have done well. If you are going to be in steels, you are better off in pipes which is a longer term growth story. China is turning into a net exporter rather than an importer. | 2005-03-09 | |
| SELL | 68.850 | Fred Pynn | Benefits from a tight profits, easy money already made, perfrorming at peak. | 2005-03-03 | |
| DON'T BUY | 59.550 | Norman Levine | Feels there's more upside in steel. Prefers to be on the side of the companies that feed the steel companies. (See the Top PIck for today.) | 2005-02-23 | |
| BUY | 58.000 | David Burrows | Steel pricing is still holding on fairly firmly and demand is very strong. Recognize that the risk is getting higher and have an exit strategy, such as a stop/loss. | 2005-02-15 | |
| DON'T BUY | 57.000 | Norman Levine | Feels it's overvalued in the near term. Would like to see the earnings catch up with the stock price. | 2005-02-09 | |
| DON'T BUY | 59.000 | Ross Healy | For this to go any higher, we need a pipeline announcement and that could drive the company further. | 2005-02-04 | |
| BUY | 59.950 | Gavin Graham | Has a very strong position in oil country and when the McKenzie Valey pipe line starts being built, they will be a big beneficiary. | 2005-02-03 | |
| TOP PICK | 59.330 | David Taylor, MBA, CFA | People treat all steel companies the same and are concerned about consumer product steel, but this company makes plate which is used for rail cars, ships, construction tractors, etc. and demand is exceptionally strong. Feels they'll earn $8US a share in 2005. Makes large diameter piping so if Alaskan pipeline goes through, they'll do very well. | 2005-02-02 | |
| DON'T BUY | 59.440 | Ron Meisels | Cahrt shows a "parabolic up" which indicates that everybody know about the strock. Party is over. | 2005-02-01 | |
| WAIT | 52.390 | David Burrows | Feels that steel stocks can perform quite well from here, but in the short term we are in a corrective phase. Steel is in very tight demand, but feels there is short term risks, both sector and market related. | 2005-01-12 | |
| HOLD | 52.780 | Robert Lyon | Have had the best part of the run that they are going to have. Can still see the potential for 15% rate of return. Another thing it has going for it is that they make a lot of the tubular pipes for oil wells. | 2005-01-11 | |
| DON'T BUY | 52.380 | Norman Levine | Valuations on steel stocks have gotten excessive. Just sold their holdings. | 2005-01-05 | |
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| DON'T BUY | 56.870 | Bruce Campbell | Steels have probably peaked, will remain at historic highs, but at a slightly lower level. Ipsco at that level will probably earn $5 this year and $3/3.50 in '06, which makes it a $50 stock. An entry point would have to be $40 for a reasonable gain. | 2005-01-04 | |
| WEAK BUY | 57.310 | Peter Brieger | Estimate on earnings next year is $7 a share. Base earnings is $5. Not badly overpriced. Not sure of a good entry point yet. | 2004-12-31 | |
| BUY | 57.740 | Gavin Graham | China's slowing demand for steel is having a negative affect on steel producers. There will not be as much reduction in demand as many people think. There will continue to be high demand for this company's products, such as steel pipe, as it is in the oil services sector. Although it has had a big run, it is still attractive. | 2004-12-30 | |
| WEAK BUY | 54.820 | Brian Acker, CA | From a balance sheet perspective, he thinks it has gone as high as it can. In a year out, if oil and steel prices remain high, he would put the stock at around $62. | 2004-12-24 | |
| BUY | 54.820 | Bruce Campbell | Stock has done incredibly well. Further growth as outlook on steel is still positive. Probably down to the last 10/15% in the next 12 months. | 2004-12-23 | |
| BUY | 54.900 | David Burrows | From early 80's to 2000 there were cyclical rallies and declines. During the rallies, they would build new capacity and then demand would dry up and they would lose their shirts. Now in a longer term up cycle and the strong pricing could last longer than expected. Watch out for increased volatility in the share price. Use a stop/loss. | 2004-12-21 | |
| DON'T BUY | 50.550 | Bill MacLachlan | Doesn't feel the run it's had is sustainable. We may be nearing the end of the steel cycle or at least a flattening of it. | 2004-12-17 | |
| DON'T BUY | 47.350 | Michael Smedley | Thinks its getting well priced in terms of cyclicality. Still has strong demand for its products. Would look for something that hasn't had such a strong run. | 2004-12-07 | |
| HOLD | 47.350 | Don Vialoux | World steel producers can't produce enough steel, so steel stocks in general have done very well. Seasonality for steels is from the end of September to the end of January. Ipsco, which produces pipe looks very good and expect very strong 4th quarter results which will be the opportunity to take profits. | 2004-12-06 | |
| WEAK BUY | 46.500 | John Sinkins, CFA | All the steel manufacturers have had steep rises mainly because of the heavy demand out of China. The costs of iron ore and coke has also gone up, but they have been able to pass these on. Could be more upside, but treat with caution. | 2004-11-29 | |
| HOLD | 37.550 | Martin Hubbes, CFA | Will need to have large pipeline infrastructure projects. Probably has gotten as much as you are going to get from a rise in steel prices. Now need large orders for large diameter pipe. | 2004-11-05 | |
| HOLD | 36.500 | Veronika Hirsch | The problem with stocks like these is that the market views them as deep cyclicals and views this year as a peak in steels, even though plate is not in this category. A tough one to play, but fabulous to keep owning. | 2004-11-04 | |
| TOP PICK | 36.300 | Mark Jackson, CFA | Continues to increase its potential for earnings based on high steel prices. Analysts are starting to take notice. Can probably earn $6.50/7US this year. Feels the steel cycle will continue well into next year. Expect them to pay down debt/increase divs. | 2004-11-03 | |
| BUY | 32.350 | David Burrows | Strong demand for steels. No new supplies coming on soon. Had a slight correction, but only temporary. | 2004-10-25 | |
| TOP PICK | 31.680 | Michael Sprung | At $30 it's only about 1 1/2 X book value with earnings as good as it's been in history. Looking for earnings in the range of $5 with cash flow north of $8. | 2004-10-21 | |
| TOP PICK | 31.690 | Glenn Paradis, BA, CFA | Probably the best of the bunch. Even if price of steel drops to $450 a ton, this company will make a ton of money. Trading roughly at book value. Buying back stock. | 2004-10-14 | |
| TOP PICK | 34.950 | Brian Acker, CA | Has moved, but not a lot compared to Algoma. | 2004-10-07 | |
| BUY | 35.270 | Gordon Higgins, CA, MBA | Prefers larger cap steels such as Ipsco which also has the prospects of the large diameter pipe. | 2004-09-30 | |
| VAGUE | 34.070 | Rob Callander | 2004-09-23 | ||
| WEAK BUY | 35.410 | Jonathen Wellum, B. Comm, B. Sc | Demand has put prices up. This company is well positioned for that. This is a specialized play. | 2004-09-21 | |
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| BUY | 33.980 | Norman Levine | A quality steel company. The major player in the oil fields. A pure play in steel plate which is a good market. Also likes Dofasco. | 2004-09-08 |
